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Pregnant or Open? Getting Cows Pregnant and the Money it Makes Paul Fricke University of Wisconsin-Madison Steve Stewart University of Minnesota-St. Paul Steve Eicker Valley Ag Software Mike Overton University of California-Davis PM Fricke, PhD Oscar Wilde 1854 – 1900 Physician, Author, Poet, Playwright 1891 The Picture of Dorian Gray “A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing.” PM Fricke, PhD Dairy Cattle Reproduction is a lot like… …playing Roulette in Reno, NV PM Fricke, PhD Assessing Risk vs. Return Three Questions to Answer: What does it cost to play? What is the cost of an AI service? What are my chances of winning? What are my chances of getting a cow pregnant to an AI service? What is the payout? What is the value of a pregnancy? PM Fricke, PhD What does it Cost to Play? Roulette Repro Minimum bet? Anyone can estimate these Maximum bet? inputs for their farm The sky is the limit! Semen ($10) Labor for AI ($5) Labor for estrus detection or hormone injections ($5) Hormones ($10) Average cost per AI: $30 PM Fricke, PhD What are My Chances of Winning? Roulette Repro Outside bets It depends on the Odd/Even; Black/Red; conception rate High/Low (i.e., conception 47.4% (18/38) chance of winning risk) of the herd in question Column; 12 numbers Conception rate varies 31.6% (12/38) chance of winning among herds, but is around 33.3% on average A pregnancy occurs 1 in every 3 AI services PM Fricke, PhD What is the Payout? Roulette Repro Outside bets A pregnancy Odd/Even; Black/Red; Actually, a pregnancy High/Low that goes to term Payout of 1:1 (even money) What is the value of Column; 12 numbers Payout of 2:1 a pregnancy??? PM Fricke, PhD Estimating the Value of a Pregnancy Two identical cows, both are 150 dim 60 days pregnant Open PM Fricke, PhD Variables to be Considered for Calculating Preg Value • Current milk production • Future expected milk production • Age of the cow • Current days in milk • Current reproductive status • Price of milk • Value of cull cows • Cost of the average replacement PM Fricke, PhD Pregnancy Value Among Herd Variation 77 herds 25 20 15 H e rd s 10 5 0 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Pregnancy Value ($) PM Fricke, PhD Pregnancy Value Within Herd Variation Mode = $350 PGVAL = $-1,150 PGVAL = $3,850 Lact = 1 Lact = 2 46 lb milk/d 156 lb milk/d 98 DIM 62 DIM 305ME = 19,390 305ME = 34,240 PM Fricke, PhD Lactation Curves – Primiparous vs. Multiparous Cows New Game: Repro Roulette • What will it cost me to play? – What is the cost of an AI service? $30 • What are my chances of winning? – What are my chances of getting a cow pregnant 33.3% • What is the payout? – What is the average value of a pregnancy? $300 The Key – You Have to Play to Win! PM Fricke, PhD Setting up a Breeding Program 1. How and when are cows submitted for first postpartum AI? – Estrus detection – Presynch / Ovsynch 2. How and when are cows failing to conceive to first AI service submitted for second AI? – Estrus detection – Resynch 3. Repeat step 2 until a cow becomes pregnant or you stop trying – Sickness, injury, death, no longer profitable PM Fricke, PhD DIM at 1st AI Distribution of DIM at 1st AI Service: Farm 1 Mar, 2000 Jun, 2001 Fresh Date Estrus Detection Paul M. Fricke, PhD DIM at 1st AI Distribution of DIM at 1st AI Service: Farm 2 Nov, 2003 Jun, 2004 Fresh Date GnRH PGF2α GnRH 7 Days 2 Days Paul M. Fricke, Ph.D. DIM at 1st AI Distribution of DIM at 1st AI Service: Farm 3 July, 2001 July, 2002 Fresh Date PGF2α PGF2α PGF2α GnRH GnRH 14 Days 14 Days 7 Days 2 Days Paul M. Fricke, Ph.D. Compliance is the KEY You have to develop a system to administer the right shots to the right cows on the right days PM Fricke, PhD Compliance – Presynch/Ovsynch On any given day, 95% of the cows on the list get the correct injection PGF2α PGF2α PGF2α GnRH GnRH 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 = 77% 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 59% PM Fricke, PhD PM Fricke, PhD New Research at UW PM Fricke, PhD Resynchronizing Cows Failing to Conceive to First TAI Service Step 1: Accurately identify cows failing to conceive to a TAI service Step 2: Empirically determine the best time after first TAI to reinitiate Ovsynch Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. Fertility of Dairy Cows after Resynchronization of Ovulation at Three Intervals Following First Timed Insemination J. Dairy Sci. 86:3941-3950; 2003 PM Fricke, DZ Caraviello, KA Weigel, and ML Welle Department of Dairy Science University of Wisconsin-Madison and Miltrim Farms, Inc., Athens, WI Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. G US+P G+TAI 23% (28/120) 19 26 28 T T R n=711 G+TAI US+G P G+TAI 34% (41/121) 0 26 33 35 R T T R US+G P G+TAI 38% (54/143) 33 40 42 Fricke et al., J. Dairy Sci. T T R 86:3941-3950; 2003 Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. February 10, 2005; p. 81 Preg checks – How early is too early? by Paul Fricke, Steven Stewart, and Paul Rapnicki Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. Embryonic loss in lactating cows Day of gestation # of at diagnosis pregna Interval Loss ncies First Second (d) (%) Reference 256 28 38-58 ~20 28.0 Cartmill et al., 2001. JD S 84:1051 261 30 44 14 12.5 Cerri et al., 2003. JDS 86(Suppl 1):181 195 28 42 14 17.9 Chebel et al., 2003. Therio 60:1389 74 31 45 14 10.8 Chebel et al., 2003. JDS 86(Suppl 1):182 167 28 39 11 11.4 Juchem et al., 2002. JDS 85(Suppl 1):315 139 27 45 18 20.7 Moreira et al., 2001. JDS 84:1646 Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. Embryonic Loss in Lactating Dairy Cows 100 n = 512 breedings; 480 calvings 95 (10.9%) Total loss (d28 to calving) = 24.7% % of C ow s P regnant 90 (6.3%) 85 Day 28 - 56: (1.9%) 13.5% (12/89) (1.7%) Fricke et al., 1998 80 (5.5%) 75 70 28 42 56 70 98 282 Day of Gestation Vasconcelos et al., 1997 Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. Effect of Interval From Timed AI to Initiation of Resynchronization of Ovulation Using Ovsynch on Fertility of Lactating Dairy Cows J Dairy Sci 2005 (Abstract) RA Sterry, ML Welle, and PM Fricke Department of Dairy Science University of Wisconsin-Madison and Miltrim Farms, Inc., Athens, WI Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. Resynch Treatment Groups Sterry et al., 2005 G US+P G+TAI n = 695 26 33 35 G P G+TAI T T R -9 -2 0 T T R US+G P G+TAI 33 40 42 T T R Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. Conception Rate at 33 d and pregnancy loss for cows diagnosed pregnant Sterry et al., 2005 47% 45% (327/695) (313/694) US Recheck Recheck 33 4.0% 40 61 T (13/326) T T Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. Effect of AI Service Number on Conception Rate to Initial TAI Sterry et al., 2005 AI Service Number Conception Rate (33 d) 1 (Presynch/Ovsynch) 55a (193/354) 2 (Resynch) 40b (59/149) 3+ (Resynch) 39b (75/192) Overall 47 (327/695) a,bProportions differ (P<0.01) Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. Schedule for Resynchronizing Nonpregnant Cows Sterry et al., 2005 D26 G US+P G+TAI US Recheck -9 -2 0 33 40 T T R T T D33 US+G P G+TAI US Recheck -9 -2 0 33 40 T T R T T Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. Conception Rate at 33 d and pregnancy loss for Resynch cows with a CL on d 33 Sterry et al., 2005 D26 29% 27% (46/159) (43/159) P=0.09 D33 38% 35% (54/142) (50/141) US Recheck Recheck 33 6.0% 40 61 T (6/99) T T Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. Synch and Resynch Presynch / Ovsynch for first TAI P P G P G +TAI T T T T R 0 Resynch for nonpregnant cows G P G+TAI T T R 33 40 42 Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. Distribution of DIM at latest AI Service: Farm 3 DIM at most recent AI Resynch 3 Resynch 2 Resynch 1 Presynch / Ovsynch Distribution of DIM at Services 1 to 4: Farm 3 Resynch 3 DIM at AI 1 to 4 Resynch 2 Resynch 1 Presynch / Ovsynch Date Remember… you have to play to win! Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D. http://www.wisc.edu/dysci UW-Madison Dairy Science…Committed to Excellence in Research, Extension and Instruction Bucky is Looking For a Few Good Students in Dairy Science Predicted Changes in Milk/ Cow and Expected Return Dr. Michael Overton UC-Davis VMTRC 1 unit increase in PR overall ~ $18 avg return per cow/ year. 1 unit increase from 14% to 18%, ~ $20/ cow/ year Assumes: 8% PR w/ ~ 18,000 RHA to start, Milk is per milking cow/day Milk Price Drives Profitability on the Dairy (Also, Impacts Returns From Reproductive Programs) $23 $15 Dr. Michael Overton UC-Davis VMTRC
"Pregnant or Open Getting Cows Pregnant and the Money it Makes"