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Pregnant or Open Getting Cows Pregnant and the Money it Makes

VIEWS: 18 PAGES: 44

									   Pregnant or Open?
   Getting Cows Pregnant
   and the Money it Makes
Paul Fricke     University of Wisconsin-Madison
Steve Stewart University of Minnesota-St. Paul
Steve Eicker Valley Ag Software
Mike Overton University of California-Davis

                              PM Fricke, PhD
Oscar Wilde
1854 – 1900
Physician, Author, Poet,
Playwright
1891
The Picture of Dorian Gray

“A cynic is a man who knows
the price of everything but
the value of nothing.”
                           PM Fricke, PhD
  Dairy Cattle
Reproduction
 is a lot like…



                   …playing
                   Roulette in
                   Reno, NV
                  PM Fricke, PhD
  Assessing Risk vs. Return
Three Questions to Answer:
What does it cost to play?
   What is the cost of an AI service?
What are my chances of winning?
   What are my chances of getting a cow
     pregnant to an AI service?
What is the payout?
   What is the value of a pregnancy?


                            PM Fricke, PhD
               What does it Cost to
                     Play?

Roulette                  Repro
Minimum bet?              Anyone can estimate these
Maximum bet?               inputs for their farm
  The sky is the limit!     Semen ($10)
                            Labor for AI ($5)
                            Labor for estrus detection
                              or hormone injections ($5)
                            Hormones ($10)
                          Average cost per AI: $30

                                  PM Fricke, PhD
               What are My Chances
                   of Winning?

Roulette                            Repro
Outside bets                        It depends on the
Odd/Even; Black/Red;                   conception rate
  High/Low                             (i.e., conception
  47.4% (18/38) chance of winning
                                       risk) of the herd in
                                       question
Column; 12 numbers
                                    Conception rate varies
  31.6% (12/38) chance of winning
                                       among herds, but is
                                       around 33.3% on
                                       average
                                    A pregnancy occurs 1
                                       in every 3 AI
                                       services

                                    PM Fricke, PhD
                  What is the Payout?

Roulette                       Repro
Outside bets                   A pregnancy
Odd/Even; Black/Red;           Actually, a pregnancy
  High/Low                       that goes to term
  Payout of 1:1 (even money)
                               What is the value of
Column; 12 numbers
  Payout of 2:1
                                a pregnancy???




                                    PM Fricke, PhD
Estimating the Value
of a Pregnancy
Two identical cows, both are 150 dim




60 days pregnant          Open
                       PM Fricke, PhD
Variables to be Considered
for Calculating Preg Value
•   Current milk production
•   Future expected milk production
•   Age of the cow
•   Current days in milk
•   Current reproductive status
•   Price of milk
•   Value of cull cows
•   Cost of the average replacement
                          PM Fricke, PhD
Pregnancy Value                                Among Herd Variation
77 herds

           25

           20

           15
H e rd s




           10

            5

            0
                200   250   300   350   400   450   500   550   600   650   700

                                    Pregnancy Value ($)
                                                      PM Fricke, PhD
Pregnancy Value         Within Herd Variation

                    Mode = $350




  PGVAL = $-1,150                 PGVAL = $3,850
     Lact = 1                        Lact = 2
    46 lb milk/d                   156 lb milk/d
      98 DIM                         62 DIM
  305ME = 19,390                  305ME = 34,240




                            PM Fricke, PhD
Lactation Curves – Primiparous vs. Multiparous Cows
New Game: Repro Roulette
• What will it cost me to play?
    –   What is the cost of an AI service? $30
• What are my chances of winning?
    –   What are my chances of getting a cow
        pregnant 33.3%
• What is the payout?
    –   What is the average value of a pregnancy?
        $300
The Key – You Have to Play to Win!

                                PM Fricke, PhD
Setting up a Breeding Program
1. How and when are cows submitted for first
   postpartum AI?
  –   Estrus detection
  –   Presynch / Ovsynch
2. How and when are cows failing to conceive
   to first AI service submitted for second AI?
  –   Estrus detection
  –   Resynch
3. Repeat step 2 until a cow becomes
   pregnant or you stop trying
  –   Sickness, injury, death, no longer profitable
                                 PM Fricke, PhD
DIM at 1st AI   Distribution of DIM at 1st AI Service: Farm 1




                Mar, 2000                               Jun, 2001



                                   Fresh Date
Estrus Detection




                   Paul M. Fricke, PhD
DIM at 1st AI   Distribution of DIM at 1st AI Service: Farm 2




                Nov, 2003                              Jun, 2004



                                 Fresh Date
GnRH            PGF2α          GnRH

       7 Days         2 Days




                   Paul M. Fricke, Ph.D.
DIM at 1st AI   Distribution of DIM at 1st AI Service: Farm 3




            July, 2001                               July, 2002



                                   Fresh Date
                                                  PGF2α
PGF2α             PGF2α             GnRH               GnRH


        14 Days           14 Days        7 Days     2 Days




                                    Paul M. Fricke, Ph.D.
Compliance is the KEY
                          You have to
                          develop a
                          system to
                          administer the
                          right shots to
                          the right cows
                          on the right
                          days




                    PM Fricke, PhD
Compliance – Presynch/Ovsynch
On any given day, 95% of the cows on the
list get the correct injection
                               PGF2α
PGF2α      PGF2α     GnRH             GnRH




0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 = 77%
0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 59%
                         PM Fricke, PhD
PM Fricke, PhD
New Research at UW




            PM Fricke, PhD
Resynchronizing Cows Failing to
Conceive to First TAI Service

Step 1: Accurately identify cows
 failing to conceive to a TAI service

Step 2: Empirically determine the
 best time after first TAI to
 reinitiate Ovsynch

                    Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
Fertility of Dairy Cows after
Resynchronization of Ovulation at
Three Intervals Following First
Timed Insemination
J. Dairy Sci. 86:3941-3950; 2003


PM Fricke, DZ Caraviello,
KA Weigel, and ML Welle
Department of Dairy Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison and
Miltrim Farms, Inc., Athens, WI


                                      Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
                  G      US+P       G+TAI
                                             23%
                                             (28/120)
                  19           26 28
                   T           T    R


  n=711
  G+TAI                  US+G           P    G+TAI
                                                        34%
                                                        (41/121)
  0                            26       33 35
  R                            T        T    R


                                    US+G           P G+TAI
                                                                   38%
                                                                   (54/143)
                                        33         40 42
Fricke et al., J. Dairy Sci.            T          T   R
86:3941-3950; 2003                       Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
February 10, 2005; p. 81

Preg checks –
How early is too early?
by Paul Fricke, Steven Stewart, and Paul Rapnicki




                             Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
Embryonic loss in lactating cows
         Day of gestation
  # of     at diagnosis
pregna                      Interval   Loss
 ncies   First   Second        (d)      (%)            Reference
 256      28      38-58       ~20      28.0   Cartmill et al., 2001. JD S
                                              84:1051
 261      30        44        14       12.5   Cerri et al., 2003. JDS
                                              86(Suppl 1):181
 195      28        42        14       17.9   Chebel et al., 2003. Therio
                                              60:1389
 74       31        45        14       10.8   Chebel et al., 2003. JDS
                                              86(Suppl 1):182
 167      28        39        11       11.4   Juchem et al., 2002. JDS
                                              85(Suppl 1):315
 139      27        45        18       20.7   Moreira et al., 2001. JDS
                                              84:1646
                                        Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
 Embryonic Loss in Lactating Dairy Cows
                         100
                                                    n = 512 breedings; 480 calvings
                                  95   (10.9%)
                                                  Total loss (d28 to calving) = 24.7%
          % of C ow s P regnant



                                  90
                                         (6.3%)
                                  85
                                                                                 Day 28 - 56:
                                            (1.9%)                              13.5% (12/89)
                                                (1.7%)                          Fricke et al., 1998
                                  80
                                                                    (5.5%)
                                  75

                                  70
                                   28 42 56 70    98                               282
                                                       Day of Gestation
Vasconcelos et al., 1997                                         Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
Effect of Interval From Timed AI
to Initiation of Resynchronization
of Ovulation Using Ovsynch on
Fertility of Lactating Dairy Cows
J Dairy Sci 2005 (Abstract)


RA Sterry, ML Welle, and PM Fricke
Department of Dairy Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison and
Miltrim Farms, Inc., Athens, WI



                              Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
     Resynch Treatment Groups
     Sterry et al., 2005


                           G    US+P G+TAI
      n = 695
                           26     33 35
G           P G+TAI        T       T   R

-9         -2   0
T           T   R               US+G          P G+TAI

                                  33         40 42
                                   T          T   R



                                  Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
Conception Rate at 33 d and pregnancy
loss for cows diagnosed pregnant
Sterry et al., 2005




      47%                 45%
     (327/695)        (313/694)
        US            Recheck                  Recheck

        33     4.0%        40                       61
         T     (13/326)    T                        T




                                  Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
Effect of AI Service Number on
Conception Rate to Initial TAI
Sterry et al., 2005


AI Service Number                  Conception Rate (33 d)
1 (Presynch/Ovsynch)                     55a (193/354)
2 (Resynch)                               40b (59/149)
3+ (Resynch)                              39b (75/192)
Overall                                   47 (327/695)
a,bProportions   differ (P<0.01)


                                    Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
Schedule for Resynchronizing
Nonpregnant Cows Sterry et al., 2005

D26 G      US+P G+TAI            US     Recheck

      -9     -2   0              33          40
       T     T    R              T           T


D33        US+G       P G+TAI               US      Recheck

             -9       -2   0                 33         40
              T       T    R                 T          T


                               Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
Conception Rate at 33 d and pregnancy
loss for Resynch cows with a CL on d 33
Sterry et al., 2005




 D26          29%                 27%
              (46/159)            (43/159)
                                                  P=0.09
 D33           38%                35%
              (54/142)            (50/141)
                US                Recheck                        Recheck

                 33      6.0%        40                               61
                 T       (6/99)      T                                T


                                             Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
Synch and Resynch
      Presynch / Ovsynch for first TAI
  P          P               G       P G +TAI

 T           T               T       T   R
                                         0




          Resynch for nonpregnant cows
                 G       P       G+TAI

                 T       T   R
                 33      40 42

                        Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
     Distribution of DIM at latest AI Service: Farm 3
DIM at most recent AI




                                    Resynch 3


                                        Resynch 2

                                                Resynch 1



                                          Presynch / Ovsynch
   Distribution of DIM at Services 1 to 4: Farm 3

                                               Resynch 3
DIM at AI 1 to 4




                                               Resynch 2



                                               Resynch 1


                                       Presynch / Ovsynch




                         Date
Remember… you have to play to win!




                   Paul M. Fricke , Ph.D.
           http://www.wisc.edu/dysci

UW-Madison Dairy Science…Committed to Excellence in
         Research, Extension and Instruction

 Bucky is Looking For a Few Good
     Students in Dairy Science
Predicted Changes in Milk/ Cow and Expected Return

             Dr. Michael Overton
             UC-Davis VMTRC




1 unit increase in PR overall ~ $18 avg return per cow/ year.
1 unit increase from 14% to 18%, ~ $20/ cow/ year
Assumes: 8% PR w/ ~ 18,000 RHA to start, Milk is per milking cow/day
Milk Price Drives Profitability on the Dairy
  (Also, Impacts Returns From Reproductive Programs)




                                                       $23
                                         $15




                                    Dr. Michael Overton
                                    UC-Davis VMTRC

								
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