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					       Foreclosure and the
       Housing Situation in
       Virginia
       Sonya Ravindranath Waddell
       April 27, 2011
The views expressed in this presentation are my own and do not represent the
views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve
System.
Foreclosure Rate (Inventory)
            14.0

                        Virginia
            12.0

            10.0

             8.0
  Percent




             6.0

             4.0

             2.0

             0.0
               2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

                                                                        Source: MBA

                                                                                      2
Foreclosure Rate (Inventory)
            14.0
                      Virginia
            12.0      United States

            10.0

             8.0
  Percent




             6.0

             4.0

             2.0

             0.0
               2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

                                                                        Source: MBA

                                                                                      3
Foreclosure Rate (Inventory)
           16.0
                     Virginia
           14.0      United States
                     Florida
           12.0

           10.0
 Percent




            8.0

            6.0

            4.0

            2.0

            0.0
              2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

                                                                       Source: MBA

                                                                                     4
Foreclosure Rates in Virginia
            6.0
                           Foreclosure Inventory   Foreclosure Starts
            5.0


            4.0
  Percent




            3.0


            2.0


            1.0


            0.0
              2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

                                                                        Source: MBA

                                                                                      5
Foreclosure Rate (Starts): Virginia
            6.0
                        Prime
                        Subprime
            5.0         FHA
                        VA
            4.0
  Percent




            3.0


            2.0


            1.0


            0.0
              2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

                                                                       Source: MBA

                                                                                     6
    Share of the Foreclosure Inventory:
                  Virginia
   First Quarter 2007          Fourth Quarter 2010




Prime   Subprime   FHA   VA   Prime   Subprime   FHA    VA


                                                       Source: MBA

                                                                     7
Subprime loans are still disproportionately
represented in the foreclosure pool in Virginia
     Fourth Quarter 2010           Fourth Quarter 2010
     Mortgage Inventory           Foreclosure Inventory




   Prime   Subprime   FHA   VA   Prime   Subprime   FHA       VA

                                                          Source: MBA

                                                                        8
                             Percentage of Owner-Occupied Homes in
                                        Foreclosure/REO


                                  Percent
                                                                                               !
                                                                                                   Winchester
                                    0.00 - 1.55
                                    1.56 - 2.35                                                                        !
                                                                                                                           Washington

                                    2.36 - 3.22
                                    3.23 - 4.28                                  !
                                                                                     Harrisonburg
                                                                                                              !
                                                                                                                  Fredericksburg
                                    4.29 - 12.47
                                   Data Unavailable


                                                                                                                  Richmond
                                                                                                              !


                                                                           !
                                                                               Lynchburg
                                                   Blacksburg Roanoke
                                                      !
                                                            !




                                                                                                                                             !
                                                                                                                                                 Virginia Beach

                    !
                        Bristol                                         Danville
                                                                    !




                                                                                           *Source: Mortgage data is from Federal Reserve Bank of
                                                                                            Richmond estimates based on December 2010 data provided by
                                                                                            McDash Analytics, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lender
                                                                                            Processing Services, Inc. and fourth quarter 2010
                                                                                            Mortgage Bankers Association data. Uncategorized zip codes
                                                                                            have fewer than one hundred loans or no available data.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond




                                                                                                                                                                  9
                           Percentage of Owner-Occupied Homes with
                                     Subprime Mortgages


                                  Percent
                                                                                               !
                                                                                                   Winchester
                                   0.00 - 4.31
                                   4.32 - 6.36                                                                         !
                                                                                                                           Washington

                                   6.37 - 8.53
                                   8.54 - 11.97                                  !
                                                                                     Harrisonburg
                                                                                                              !
                                                                                                                  Fredericksburg
                                   11.98 - 37.95
                                   Data Unavailable


                                                                                                                  Richmond
                                                                                                              !


                                                                           !
                                                                               Lynchburg
                                                   Blacksburg Roanoke
                                                      !
                                                            !




                                                                                                                                             !
                                                                                                                                                 Virginia Beach

                    !
                        Bristol                                         Danville
                                                                    !




                                                                                           *Source: Mortgage data is from Federal Reserve Bank of
                                                                                            Richmond estimates based on December 2010 data provided by
                                                                                            McDash Analytics, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lender
                                                                                            Processing Services, Inc. and fourth quarter 2010
                                                                                            Mortgage Bankers Association data. Uncategorized zip codes
                                                                                            have fewer than one hundred loans or no available data.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond




                                                                                                                                                              10
Foreclosure and Delinquency: Virginia
            6.0
                         Foreclosure Inventory   Foreclosure Starts
                         90+ Day Delinquencies   60+ Day Delinquencies
            5.0


            4.0
  Percent




            3.0


            2.0


            1.0


            0.0
              2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

                                                                         Source: MBA

                                                                                       11
Delinquency by Mortgage Type: Virginia
            15.0
                         Prime
            13.0         Subprime
                         FHA
            11.0         VA

             9.0
  Percent




             7.0

             5.0

             3.0

             1.0

            -1.0
               2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

                                                                        Source: MBA

                                                                                      12
                           Percentage of Owner-Occupied Homes with
                                     90+ Day Delinquency


                                  Percent
                                                                                               !
                                                                                                   Winchester
                                    0.00 - 1.76
                                    1.77 - 2.85                                                                        !
                                                                                                                           Washington

                                    2.86 - 3.73
                                    3.74 - 4.94                                  !
                                                                                     Harrisonburg
                                                                                                              !
                                                                                                                  Fredericksburg
                                    4.95 - 16.04
                                   Data Unavailable


                                                                                                                  Richmond
                                                                                                              !


                                                                           !
                                                                               Lynchburg
                                                   Blacksburg Roanoke
                                                      !
                                                            !




                                                                                                                                             !
                                                                                                                                                 Virginia Beach

                    !
                        Bristol                                         Danville
                                                                    !




                                                                                           *Source: Mortgage data is from Federal Reserve Bank of
                                                                                            Richmond estimates based on December 2010 data provided by
                                                                                            McDash Analytics, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lender
                                                                                            Processing Services, Inc. and fourth quarter 2010
                                                                                            Mortgage Bankers Association data. Uncategorized zip codes
                                                                                            have fewer than one hundred loans or no available data.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond




                                                                                                                                                                  13
House Price Declines
      Index 1995:Q1=100
350
             United S tates
325          Virginia
             Florida
300

275

250

225

200

175

150

125

100
  1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
                                                                             Source: FHFA

                                                                                            14
House Prices (cont.)
      Index 1995:Q1=100
350
              Charlottesville MSA     Danville MSA
325           Richmond MS    A        Roanoke MS  A
              Virginia Beach MS A     Winchester MS A
300           Washington, DCMS    A   Virginia

275

250

225

200

175

150

125

100
  1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
                                                                             Source: FHFA

                                                                                            15
Existing Home Sales
             8,000.0                                                        250.0

             7,000.0
                                                                            200.0
             6,000.0

             5,000.0
                                                                            150.0




                                                                                     Thousands
 Thousands




             4,000.0

                                                                            100.0
             3,000.0

             2,000.0        U.S. (left axis)
                            Virginia (right axis)                           50.0
             1,000.0

                 0.0                                                        0.0
                   2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

                                                                                   Source: NAR

                                                                                                 16
Unemployment
           12.0
                        U.S.
                        Virginia
           10.0


            8.0
 Percent




            6.0


            4.0


            2.0


            0.0
              2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

                                                                       Source: BLS

                                                                                     17
Unemployment (February 2011)


      Unemployment Rate
          by County
              3.9 - 6.1                                                                            Arlington
                                                                                               !



              6.2 - 7.2
              7.3 - 8.3
                                                                                          Fredericksburg
                                                                                      !
              8.4 - 9.5
                                                                    Charlottesville
              9.6 - 17.8                                        !




                                                                                          Richmond
                                                                                      !
                                                    Lynchburg
                                                !

                               Roanoke                                                                       Williamsburg
                           !                                                                             !




                                                                                                                       Norfolk
                                                                                                                   !



                                             Danville
                                         !




                                                                         Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics




                                                                                                                                 18
What is the bottom line?
The Downside
• The housing market is still a drag on the economy
• House prices are still falling and foreclosure inventories are
  still at record levels
The Upside
• The foreclosure inventory and the number of foreclosure
  starts are leveling off.
• Delinquency rates are falling and unemployment levels are
  stabilizing
Sonya Ravindranath Waddell
Associate Regional Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
804-697-2694
sonya.waddell@rich.frb.org

				
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posted:9/25/2011
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