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					Naval Postgraduate School



Intellectual Capacity for

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION

in Stability, Security, Transition and Reconstruction (SSTR)
Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR)




23 September 2011
Version 2.0

Point of contact:

Dr. Karen Guttieri
Cebrowski Institute for Innovation
Glasgow Hall East
Building 305 Room GE-318
1411 Cunningham Road
Monterey, CA 93943

650-796-6780 cell
831-656-1132 office
831-656-3994 fax

guttieri@nps.edu
                                                             CONTENTS



Introduction........................................................................................................................ 3
   1. Semantic Glue .......................................................................................... 4
        1.1.        Merging and Slicing Semantic Information ................................................................ 4
        1.2.        Rich Semantic Tracks ................................................................................................ 4
        1.3.        Risk Models in a Complex Adaptive Multi-agent System .......................................... 5
        1.4.        Building Collaborative Capacity: A Diagnostic Process ............................................. 6
        1.5.        Quantitative Modeling of Rumor ................................................................................ 6
   2.       Ad Hoc, Dynamic Networking on Diverse, Unstable Networks ............ 8
        2.1.     Hastily Formed Networks ........................................................................................... 8
        2.2.     Optimization of Hastily-Formed Networks (HFN) ...................................................... 8
        2.3.     Natural-Language Processing Guard to Downgrade Classified Information for
        Civilian Usage ......................................................................................................................... 9
        2.4.     Autonomous Coordination of First-Responder Robots .............................................. 9
        2.5.     Automatic Situational Awareness from Tactical Chat ................................................ 9
        2.6.     Swift Trust in Disaster Response / Human Network Performance ......................... 10
        2.7.     The Integration of Virtual Public-Private Partnerships in Local Law Enforcement to
        Achieve Enhanced Intelligence-Led Policing ........................................................................ 10
        2.8.     The Coast Guard Citizen’s Action Network (CAN) .................................................. 11
        2.9.     Web data mining for finding new connections ......................................................... 11
   3.       Mobile Computing Applications to Support Local Optimization ....... 12
        3.1.   Real-Time Allocation of Wireless Access Points in Disaster Relief Efforts ............. 12
        3.2.   TwiddleNet: Immediate Content Capture and Dissemination for First Responders 12
        3.3.   Harmonieweb.org / Mobile Computing Applications and Human Network
        performance .......................................................................................................................... 13
   4.       (Human) Network Performance ............................................................. 14
        4.1.    Valuable Information at the Right Time ................................................................... 14
        4.2.    Conceptual Modeling of Multi-Organizational Social Networks ............................... 14
        4.3.    Combined Reconstruction and Stability Operations Capabilities Project ................ 15
        4.4.    Interactive Learning Environment for Managing Interagency, Interactions in Stability,
        Security, Transition and Reconstruction Operations (Army) ................................................ 16
        4.5.    Updating Interagency Assessment for Afghanistan ................................................. 16
   5.       System Level Issues .............................................................................. 17
        5.1.   Common Operational Research Environment (CORE) Program ............................ 17
        5.2.   Civil Information Management in Complex Operations ........................................... 18
        5.3.   Decentralizing SSTR................................................................................................ 19
        5.4.   A Maslow Approach to Distributing Emergency Action Information Technology
        Resources ............................................................................................................................. 19
        5.5.   Infrastructure for Hastily Formed Networks ............................................................. 19
        5.6.   Organic Sustainability: Private Sector Outreach ..................................................... 20
        5.7.   Determining the Best Approach to Organizing for a Particular Mission and
        Environment .......................................................................................................................... 20
        5.8.   Tactical SOA for HA/DR........................................................................................... 21
   6.       Mensuration ............................................................................................ 22
        6.1.        Data Farming for Peacekeeping Support ................................................................ 22
        6.2.        Boot Camp for Hastily Formed Networks ................................................................ 22
        6.3.        Developing Metrics for SSTR .................................................................................. 23
        6.4.        Measures of Normlessness ..................................................................................... 23
        6.5.        Learning SSTR ........................................................................................................ 24




                                                                                                                                                2
                                INTRODUCTION


The Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) offers depth and breadth of intellectual
capacity for strategic collaboration in Security, Stability, Transition, and
Reconstruction (SSTR), and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief
(HADR). Its designation as a NATO Partnership for Peace Training Center, and
relationships with research institutions from Singapore to Geneva, situates NPS
on a global social network in military and humanitarian affairs, hard and soft
sciences.

In 2001, before the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States had yet
demonstrated to the world the danger of failed states, NPS had initiated a
graduate track in Stabilization and Reconstruction. When disaster struck, NPS
fielded teams in Thailand (tsunami), Mississippi (Katrina, 2 teams), and helped
with operations on the Mercy hospital ship in Philippines, with support from the
OSD NII. We deployed mobile communications networks, and assisted
HarmonieWeb. We coined the term Hastily Formed Networks and published
several white (concept) papers on HFNs. HFNs were a response, so we wanted
to know whether crisis situations might be averted by proper preparedness and
have now established an exploratory activity in cross-sector issues in this area.

The Cebrowski Institute helps to cultivate transformational projects from the
academic side and seeds them; our cross-campus integrated project for SSTR
involves faculty and students with scientific and technical expertise. NPS is home
to the Center for Stabilization and Reconstruction Studies which provides table
top exercises, short courses and workshops to practitioners. The Common
Operational Research Program will provide analytical technologies to educate
the officer corps on how to apply theoretical concepts such as social network
analysis and complex-adaptive modeling to irregular warfare. Modeling and
Virtual Environments assist risk analysis. We provide expert data-miners in the
SEED operational research program for peacekeeping. Since 2002, the Naval
Postgraduate School (NPS) Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS)
in partnership with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security has conducted
graduate and executive level education programs for the nation’s top homeland
security officials. CHDS partners with Universities and government agencies to
build a national network of homeland security educational programs.

Many of the other items in the inventory are people who are helping
in one way or another with these major NPS themes.




                                                                                  3
1. SEMANTIC GLUE1
    1.1. Merging and Slicing Semantic Information
During crisis response, diverse people and systems must communicate. This
requires bridging across different ways of representing and describing similar
information, accumulating and integrating different views of the same information
from different sources and different representations, processing changes in such
information, and transformations to provide views appropriate for different
audiences. We have been studying related problems in the contexts of semantic
interoperability, requirements analysis, and document-driven engineering
responses to change requests. This process requires representations for partial
and possibly conflicting information, principles for soundly materializing
summaries and simplified views of descriptions relevant to particular themes,
combining changes to data, and resolving conflicts and ambiguities.

We propose to apply the mathematics supporting these processes to support
effective software-mediated communication under conditions of information
overload. The above processes are needed for ―publish and smart pull‖
communication that can reduce both communications bandwidth and human
cognitive loads under crisis with impaired network infrastructure.
Prof. Berzins, Computer Science, berzins@nps.edu
    1.2. Rich Semantic Tracks
SSTR and HA/DR operations require cross-organizational and cross-cultural
information sharing. Basic semantic concepts are needed to ensure clear
communication of information and intent. One abstraction needed in this domain
is the concept of a track which associates observations with the mobile entity and
typically includes position, velocity, and other similar attributes. Military systems
have sophisticated tracking and track fusion processes, but lack uniformity in
syntactic and semantic content preventing effective sharing of the information. In
other domains of interest, such as seagoing surface ships, dangerous cargo and
persons of interest, tracking systems are less mature and have marginal
performance. We need a flexible framework that can tolerate and exploit data
products from multiple systems, even though these systems employ different
representations and embody different assumptions. The most basic assumptions

1
  ―…technologies and capabilities that will enable strategic collaboration by providing lightweight,
adaptive and interactive representation schemes (language, icons, and geospatial graphics) for
exchanging information, across a wide array of devices with different form factors (ranging from
cell phones to desk top computers), in environments with varying network bandwidth and
reliability, while providing semantically meaningful information appropriate to the individual,
organization, form factor, and network capacity.‖ (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
Request for Information, April 2, 2007 http://www.darpa.mil/baa/SN07-28.html )



                                                                                                   4
concern what the information is intended to mean (semantics) and how it is
intended to be used by a recipient (pragmatics). In accordance with best
practices in the technology areas of the semantic web and knowledge
representation, we seek to reduce the barriers to efficient sharing of information
through development of a rich semantic model of tracks that can support multiple
important functions: (1) represent a wide variety of meanings and support a
broad array of pragmatic goals; (2) reduce the time and cost required to
implement capabilities to reason about a new, specialized type of track; (3)
simplify the understanding and importation of external sources of track
information; (4) help operators describe what attributes of tracks they value in
performing their tasks; (5) significantly improve our ability to combine multiple
sources of track information; (6) provide a stable and evolvable base for key
standards and best practices that support information sharing; and (7) improve
bandwidth utilization, raising the proportion of communicated information that
recipients consider significant, by delivering valued information at the right time
(VIRT).

Relevant experience: Conducts a class once-a-year examining the special
challenges in modeling and simulation of SSTR Operations.
Key external partnerships: Teknowledge

Rick Hayes-Roth, Information Sciences, hayes-roth@nps.edu
Curtis Blais, MOVES Institute, clblais@nps.edu

   1.3. Risk Models in a Complex Adaptive Multi-agent System
The NPS Perimeter Security Project is a group effort consisting of government,
industry and academic experts who are producing a tactical application for use in
defending national harbors, installation perimeters and waterways. Scenarios
can be autogenerated, viewed, analyzed, and manipulated by end users. High-
performance computing (HPC) assets are leveraged for massive replication of
heavy-duty simulation scenarios, producing measures of effectiveness (MoEs)
within statistically significant, analyst-specified confidence intervals.

Risk models are connected and run in a complex adaptive multi-agent system.
This tool will facilitate analysts in confidently determining whether defensive
improvements are truly effective. This package comes complete with support for
automatic creation of detailed analyst-annotated risk-analysis reports.

Partnerships: Naval Facilities Engineering Services Center (NFESC), Port
Hueneme, CA
Consumers: Port security investment: how to best invest harbor-defense funds;
Installation operations: how to best deploy current assets for maximum
defensive posture; Ship + harbor coordination: help ships train sailors to be
immediately effective upon entering port.


                                                                                  5
Don Brutzman, Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation (MOVES)
Institute, brutzman@nps.edu, URL: http://web.nps.navy.mil/~brutzman/


   1.4. Building Collaborative Capacity: A Diagnostic Process
Collaboration across organizations in government and industry has been found to
improve performance effectiveness, reduce litigation, decrease costs, and
increase innovation. However, experience shows that organizations commonly
fail when they attempt to build collaborative relationships. Among the reasons for
ineffective collaboration are: diverse missions, goals and incentives that conflict
with one another; histories of distrust that are hard to alter; leaders who do not
actively support collaborative efforts; and the lack of supportive coordination
systems and structures Our research focuses on identifying and assessing those
factors that facilitate or inhibit successful collaboration, with the ultimate aim of
guiding actions to enhance the capacity of organizations to collaborate with each
other when appropriate. We define collaborative capacity as the ability of
organizations to enter into, develop, and sustain inter-organizational systems in
pursuit of collective outcomes.
The first phase of the research developed a conceptual model of inter-
organizational collaboration using data gathered from homeland security
professionals. We identified factors that enable or inhibit collaboration and
established a comprehensive item bank of survey and interview questions that
could be used to diagnose the collaborative capacity of an organization or
system of organizations. The second phase, which is in progress, is field testing
the items as well as the diagnostic process on interagency partnerships in both
the homeland security and acquisition context. The product of Phase Two will be
a revised and validated diagnostic instrument and field-validated model for
collaborative capacity.

Gail Thomas, GSBPP, gthomas@nps.edu
Susan Hocevar, GSBPP, shocevar@nps.edu
Erik Jansen, GSOIS, ejansen@nps.edu

   1.5. Quantitative Modeling of Rumor
Other topic area: mensuration

Information in wartime is sketchy, yet consequential. Rumor – information that is
unsubstantiated yet widely shared – is rife. We analyze rumors reported in The
Baghdad Mosquito over ten months that followed the March 2003 United States-
coalition invasion of Iraq. We develop a theoretical framework for analysis of
rumor motivation, target, and subject, and discuss remedies. Rumors provide
insight into the role of basic sentiments such as unrelieved anxiety and fear in
widespread Iraqi hostility towards the US-led Coalition, and issue concerns that
inhibited public cooperation with US counterinsurgency efforts. Although rumor
properties are universal, remedies are culturally specific; American and Arab


                                                                                   6
cultural communication style differences must be considered when tailoring
remedies for rumor in Iraq. United States strategic communications aiming to
erode the base of support for insurgents must reflect understanding of Iraqi
perceptions to develop messages that address the motives and concerns of the
Iraqi people during their transition. We will perform the analysis above with the
actual rumors data to investigate if there are any trends of import. We will append
the rumor tags with spatiotemporal annotations. We will analyze the influence of
rumors in a given month on incidents in the months following in order to study the
causal predictability of incidents based on rumors. Can rumors predict incidents?
What kind of rumors has the most influence on what type of incidents? What is
the time lag between rumors and corresponding realization of actual events?

Karen Guttieri, Cebrowski Institute, Guttieri@nps.edu
Stephanie Kelley, USAF
Alper Caglayan, Milcord LLC




                                                                                  7
2. AD HOC, DYNAMIC                    NETWORKING             ON     DIVERSE,         UNSTABLE
   NETWORKS2
    2.1. Hastily Formed Networks
This research concentrates on the most challenging end of the spectrum of
Hastily Formed Networks (HFN's), namely those networks that are formed to deal
with an overwhelming crisis where advance planning and resource positioning
are inadequate and the crisis itself is a surprise. In this case everything is
challenged: basic infrastructures such as communications, power, water, and
goods distribution do not function; many organizations must cooperate with little
prior contact and no common authority; communication systems are likely to be
overwhelmed by information glut.

Our studies cover: telecommunications (agile, adaptive, mobile, interoperable,
resilient, and reliable); organizations (cooperation, collaboration, overcoming
conditioned tendencies); information management (preventing information glut
from overwhelming the network, decision makers, and those on the ground).

The research will also focus on rapidly deployed communications for man-made
and natural disasters in which we design, test, prototype, integrate, and
implement cutting edge and/or proven communications technologies as well as to
provide assistance in the acquisition process for such technologies. NPS, via our
HFN Center, is doing significant work with the "soft science" of interoperating at
the civil-military boundary by considering ways for the Department of Defense
(following DoD Directive 3000.05 mandates) and the Federal Government to
better participate in disaster response nationally and internationally with
local/city/state emergency workers, NGOs, IOs, UN Agencies, and other disaster
relief responders.

Dr. Peter Denning, Brian Steckler, Sue Higgins, and Scott McKenzie
    2.2. Optimization of Hastily-Formed Networks (HFN)
We have done some work in this area from a mathematical/probabilistic modeling
perspective and would like to do more. Work to date has focused on Maritime
Domain Protection, using a composite force of patrol craft, UAVs, USVs, and
many small innocuous ―white‖ ships that can distract the searchers (Blue UAVs,


2
  ―Ideally, SSTR/HADR responders should leverage existing networks and devices to support
Strategic Collaboration. This requires the ability to perform ad hoc, on demand networking on
public and private networks, which may be unstable and evolving. Requirements include the
ability to: detect the health and status of the network(s); manage the flow of information as a
function of the transmitting and receiving devices (form factors) and available bandwidth; and
allow individuals and organizations to register their existing and often non-interoperable devices
and platforms. This must be accomplished with minimal technical staff and be interpretable by
typical, non-technical operators.‖ (DARPA)



                                                                                                     8
etc.). We currently have 2 MS thesis students becoming involved in this area,
one from the SEAS program.
Don Gaver
   2.3. Natural-Language Processing Guard to Downgrade Classified
       Information for Civilian Usage
In Disaster Relief, it is often the case the military and civilian
organizations have to coordinate to achieve desired goals. Often,
though, coordination is stymied by the valid need to protect
classified and sensitive information. This slow down can very often
cost lives. This research uses traditional and statistical
natural-language processing (AI) techniques to automatically search
for, and alert a user to, classified information that is in danger of
being inadvertently downgraded.

Craig Martell (cmartell@nps.edu)

   2.4. Autonomous Coordination of First-Responder Robots
At NPS we have built heterogeneous teams of robots that have to coordinate
with each other in order to achieve a goal. Our working model is that of robots
mapping an area--while simultaneously searching for people--in a first-responder
situation. Common methods of coordination among robots use GPS and/or a
centralized controller to dictate the movements of individual robots. Our goal in
this research is to use simple, local rules in each robot. Combined with vision
and infrared sensor information, these rules should guarantee that the system as
a whole coordinates actions and information as desired even in the absence of
GPS. The end product of this work will be: a) Teams of robots that don't need
GPS to act; b) Individual robots able to make decisions as to their best action to
achieve the coordinated goal; and c) Teams that are robust enough to lose any
individual robot member and still carry out their mission.

Craig Martell (cmartell@nps.edu) and Kevin Squire (kmsquire@nps.edu)

   2.5. Automatic Situational Awareness from Tactical Chat
Often in emergency situations, the first connectivity established is limited in band-
width. Sending voice over this bandwidth is costly, and if we could limited it,
more of the bandwidth could be used for information. On the other hand, tactical
planning and operations need communication to coordinate. Using standard chat
programs are quickly becoming the defacto method of communication in these
situations. Unfortunately, the sheer number of people in a particular chat room
often makes it very difficult to get a clear situational understanding. This
research automatically analyzes chat logs to discover: a) What the conversations
that are happening are; b) The topics of theses conversations; and c) The
participants.


                                                                                   9
Users will be able to specify which topics, people, or area of operation that
concerns them, and the system will automatically generate a situational
summary.

Craig Martell (cmartell@nps.edu)
   2.6. Swift Trust in Disaster Response / Human Network Performance
 Collaboration between government officials and community members and
organizations is important at the best of times, but even more so in response to a
disaster. This research studies the relationship between easily implemented
interventions and the development of trust and collaboration between military and
NGOS, government officials and community members and organizations.
The Strong Angel III was an opportunity to study the antecedents of collaboration
and trust between officials and communities in a realistic yet controlled
environment during a simulated disaster exercise.
Dr. Roxanne Zolin, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, (831) 869
1700
   2.7. The Integration of Virtual Public-Private Partnerships in Local Law
       Enforcement to Achieve Enhanced Intelligence-Led Policing
During the past few years, intelligence-led policing has emerged as a policing
paradigm that is relevant to the diverse demands of today’s homeland security
environment. Intelligence-led policing, among other things, is dependent upon
the targeted collection of data and can be significantly enhanced by expanding
the law enforcement intelligence network. Given the explosive growth of the
internet and its widespread adoption as both a business and personal
communications tool, local law enforcement can also begin to take advantage of
this technology by using the internet to significantly expand its intelligence
network.

Taking an all-crimes, all-hazards, all-threats approach, local law enforcement can
organize its business and residential communities into virtual communities where
information can be shared not only between the public and private sectors, but
also amongst themselves. The resulting networks can enhance homeland
security by forming the framework from which communities of interest and
communities of practice can flourish and grow, strengthening the connections
between members, and ultimately, increasing the flow of information into the law
enforcement intelligence process.

Matthew J. Simeone, Jr. Nassau County Police Department
        msimeone@pdcn.org
Heather Issvoran, Director, CHDS Program Operations @hissvora@nps.edu




                                                                                10
   2.8. The Coast Guard Citizen’s Action Network (CAN)
The Coast Guard Citizen’s Action Network (CAN) is comprised of U.S. and
Canadian civilians, business owners and non-profit organizational leaders who live
near the water and have a maritime view.
Members provide real time information from 100s of locations along miles of
waterways. The Coast Guard directly networks members to identify, report or
corroborate HS all hazard information. Members’ locations are maintained in a
centralized dispatch database and are viewed as operational support assets while
also receiving breaking USCG news/information.
CAN members also participate in an online forum that allows members to discuss,
share or post information of interest to the network. New network members are
visited by Coast Guard Auxiliary members to deliver training material and establish
a face-to-face contact. The program aims to boost education and understanding of
the DHS mission, provide immediate assistance or feedback to marine forces while
grooming members to become more vigilant.
Andre Billeaudeaux: mlbillea@nps.edu U.S. Coast Guard
Heather Issvoran, Director, CHDS Program Operations @hissvora@nps.edu


   2.9. Web data mining for finding new connections

A key problem with construction of hastily formed networks in crisis situations is the
need to connect previously unrelated people such as military personnel and local civilian
administrators. That is, finding who should talk to whom. But much of the necessary
information about government and nongovernmental agencies is routinely available in the
enormous volume of information on the World Wide Web. Search engines like Google
are only a start in finding it because specialized engines can be much more effective in
focusing on a limited set of terms describing skills and needs and then comparing them.
This requires intelligent techniques in management of large quantities of data, methods
for assessing probabilities of suitability of candidate, and linguistic analysis methods.
We have pioneered a variety of new data mining techniques from the Web for specialized
applications like this, most notably the indexing of multimedia, and built a variety of
implementations. Recent work has developed techniques for comparing graphs of
unlinked attribution in the reference of one Web page to another.

Prof. Neil C. Rowe, 831-656-2462, ncrowe@nps.edu




                                                                                      11
3. MOBILE COMPUTING                    APPLICATIONS            TO      SUPPORT          LOCAL
   OPTIMIZATION3
    3.1. Real-Time Allocation of Wireless Access Points in Disaster Relief
        Efforts
The research objective is to analyze how to set up an ad hoc wireless
communication network most effectively in a disaster relief situation. When
existing communication infrastructures are destroyed by a natural disaster or a
terrorist attack, the disaster relief team needs to set up an ad hoc wireless
communication network. The problem is complicated because (1) initially there is
limited equipment for only a few wireless access points, so the team needs to
decide where to use them; (2) wireless access points in use are subject to
mechanical failures; and (3) new equipments may become available with arrival
time (from state/federal government) subject to estimation errors. The
deliverables will be an algorithm and a computer program to solve this problem.
Faculty labor is requested and students will involve in the research.
Kyle Lin, Operations Research Department, +1 (831) 656-2648
    3.2. TwiddleNet: Immediate Content Capture and Dissemination for First
        Responders
Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR) are inherently distributed
operations with many teams working on problems throughout an organization’s
area of responsibility. Even though such operations are centrally run, the work
and the required information to accomplish the work are needed throughout the
area assigned to the organization. A data dissemination architecture optimized
for such operations can improve the speed of information flow from the teams to
the headquarters (HQ) and directly from team to team. Receiving information
faster can improve decision turn-around time, resource prioritization, and
initiative on-site by team members. The Twiddle-Net architecture gives an
organization the ability to exploit the capabilities of the mobile devices that are in
the best position to gather and distribute pertinent information at the right time.
TwiddleNet harnesses the power of devices (primarily, smart phones and PDAs)
that twiddle most of the time to enable 1) instant content capture and publish, 2)
full owner control of content, and 3) search, view and download of content which
was previously inaccessible. TwiddleNet is most useful for first-responder
networking and information sharing tasks which require immediate content
capture and dissemination. TwiddleNet can be scaled up or down depending on

3
  ―Recent web-based examples have demonstrated that people can dynamically network to
achieve common goals…Individuals and organizations would be able to access these tools a la a
web-based, text messaging, or similar interface using their own devices (from cell phones to desk
top computers), register capabilities/needs, and be matched to the appropriate activities.
Participants could also provide information back to the system in the form of local reports.
Technology to support this includes Web 2.0, mobile computing, lightweight frameworks to
support information exchange (see Semantic Glue above), among others.‖ (DARPA)



                                                                                              12
the need of the application. It can be run on a handheld device to support a small
first-responder team and on large computers to link together millions of cell
phones sharing images, music, videos and mobile-blogs.
Prof. Gurminder Singh, Dept of Computer Science, gsingh@nps.edu,
831.656.3041


   3.3. Harmonieweb.org / Mobile Computing Applications and Human
       Network performance
The Department of Defense (DoD) Directive 3000.05, "Military Support for
Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) Operations",
November 28, 2005 establishes DoD policy and assigns responsibilities within
the Department of Defense for planning, training, and preparing to conduct and
support stability operations.
No single point of contact existed for information sharing and collaboration
between DoD and other response organizations, which lead to the development
of HARMONIEweb.org.
Social, cultural and organizational differences between U.S. military forces
(USMs), multinational forces (MNFs), other U.S. and foreign government
agencies (OGAs) and non-government organizations (NGOs) make interactions
between them difficult. This means that HARMONIEweb.org may find it difficult
to attract NGOs to the site and encourage them to share information.
The opportunity exists to re-design the organization behind HARMONIEweb.org
and institute planned organizational change to smooth the transition. If
HARMONIEweb.org had different ownership, management and funding NGOs
and other organizations may be more willing to share information and
collaborate.

Dr. Roxanne Zolin, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, (831) 869
1700




                                                                                 13
4. (HUMAN) NETWORK PERFORMANCE4
    4.1. Valuable Information at the Right Time
We are developing the concept of VIRT, valuable information at the right time.
This focuses on ways to use smart push to filter bit flows to assure that highly
valued bits are selectively delivered to each participant in a network, either
machine or person. We have published many papers on this approach, showing
up to 5 orders of magnitude reduction in traffic and workload. This is especially
important when human capacity is limited, because it assures rapid attention to
important information. It is equally important in situations where mobile
networking provides most communications bandwidth, because capacity is often
severely constrained.
Rick Hayes-Roth, hayes-roth@nps.edu
    4.2. Conceptual Modeling of Multi-Organizational Social Networks
Nonhierarchical, self-organizing, and agile social networking applies when crisis
necessitates redistributing power and responsibility. We propose an Agent Based
System simulation model for tracing causal chains of events, assessing network
processes, and identifying effective policies. Autonomous agents stochastically
engage in relationships that suit their policies. In crisis situations predefined
policies may not be optimal for dealing with the unexpected problems
characteristic of disasters and crises. We propose to combine PAL (Personalized
Assistant that Learns) machine learning strategies, active conceptual modeling
for mining relevant patterns from historical information, dynamic optimization
methods, and elements of game theory, where each agent (player) has a
reward/punishment value associated with each ―move‖ to seek policies that are
effective despite conflicts of interest and limited trust. Finding equilibria of such
games might predict how actual human populations will behave when confronted
with situations involving ―insufficient resources‖, ―multi-agency response‖ and
―bounded rationality‖ of human and software agents.
Prof. Luqi, Computer Science, luqi@nps.edu




4
  ―Provide a higher level understanding of emerging human networks, their
capabilities, and capacities, in terms of commander intent and objectives,
understandable by average people on the scene charged with making key
resource decisions but who are not network experts. Identify those emergent
networks that are performing well and those that may need assistance or
direction. Provide visualizations to cause emergent systems to evolve in intended
ways. Provide feedback on the status of key SSTR/HADR elements (medical,
food, water, security, etc.) as well as the SSTR/HADR human terrain.‖ (DARPA)


                                                                                  14
   4.3. Combined Reconstruction and Stability Operations Capabilities
        Project
US national security strategy and doctrine demand that future operations
leverage coalition capabilities and that alliance partners share the burden and
are fully integrated into reconstruction and stability operations. In OIF and OEF
little or nothing was known about the reconstruction and stability operations
capabilities of allied forces or their interoperability. This severely hampered
planning and resulted in ad hoc and uneven distribution of these resources,
unmet expectations, and perceptions of inequities in the assisted populations
which have been exploited by anti-coalition forces.
The Center for Stabilization and Reconstruction Studies (CSRS), the Center for
Civil-Military Relations, and the National Security Affairs Department (NSA) of the
Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) propose to conduct an assessment and
inventory of combined reconstruction and stability operations capabilities, identify
critical interoperability requirements, and to develop methods for planning and
deployment of alliance reconstruction and stability operations assets. The project
will build on insights gained in OEF and OIF to develop an assessment tool and
then conduct assessments by theater. The number of theaters and alliance
partners to be assessed will be resource dependent. Priorities will be
established in dialogue with the Combatant Commanders and the appropriate
departments and agencies.
NSA department: 24 faculty members with regional expertise and relevant
language skills to conduct inventory of combined and partner capabilities.
Links: http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/nsa/faculty/index.html
       http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/nsa/publicationsandresearch/facultyre
       search/index.html
CCMR: Resident faculty members and extensive network of part-time SMEs with
experience in civil-military relations and operations, peacekeeping, SSTR,
counter-terrorism policy, and humanitarian assistance. Experience working in
joint and combined settings to build and conduct assessments of partner
capabilities.
Links: http://www.ccmr.org/public/home.cfm
CSRS: Experience hosting trilateral workshops and exercises that network
together military, government and NGO participants to address SSTR issues.
Links: http://www.nps.edu/CSRS/
Douglas Porch, Chair, NSA Department, 831-656-1038, dporch@nps.edu
Richard Hoffman, Director, CCMR, 831-656-3171, rhoffman@nps.edu
Matt Vaccaro, Director, CSRS, 831-402-0987




                                                                                 15
   4.4. Interactive Learning Environment for Managing
        Interagency, Interactions in Stability, Security, Transition and
        Reconstruction Operations (Army)
Social, cultural and organizational differences between U.S. military forces
(USMs), multinational forces (MNFs), other U.S. and foreign government
agencies (OGAs) and non-government organizations (NGOs) make interactions
between members of these organizations engaged in stability, security, transition
and reconstruction operations (SSTR) less effective.
An opportunity exists to develop an interactive computer based simulation to
educate and exercise USMs in the principles of effective interactions with MNFs,
OGAs and NGOs.

Dr. Roxanne Zolin, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, (831) 869
1700


   4.5. Updating Interagency Assessment for Afghanistan

In 2006 a team made up of the US Joint Forces Command Center for
Operational Analysis, the US Department of State, and the US Agency for
International Development assessed the Afghanistan reconstruction. They
examined civil-military coordination, transition to the International Security
Assistance Force authority, and prospects for extending the Provincial
Reconstruction Team (civil-military capacity-building) model to other operations.
An updated assessment will focus upon the following: 1) reach-back for skills and
capacity; 2) social dislocation; 3) initiatives to map development activities; 3) PRT
management and information systems; 4) tools to distinguish violence against
coalition, over resources, tribal competition; 5) comparative models of personnel
provision cross-nationally; and 6) developing Lessons Learned from interviewing
former ISAF/ NATO PRT and US PRT Commanders using the latest technology
such as Ipods, internet phones and recording. Finally, PRTs were deemed best
when environment not driven by combat operations, but not permissive enough
for NGOs. An update would rate provinces in 2006 and 2007 - program
functioning by environment, increases in NGOs.

Karen Guttieri, Cebrowski Institute for Innovation Guttieri@nps.edu

Key partners: Joint Center for Operational Analysis, USAID, DOS, and NATO
School, Oberammergau




                                                                                  16
5. SYSTEM LEVEL ISSUES5
    5.1. Common Operational Research Environment (CORE) Program
The CORE Program is nested within the NPS Center for Terrorism and Irregular
Warfare (CTIW). The mission of the CORE Program is to leverage analytical
technologies to educate the officer corps on how to apply theoretical concepts to
the problems of terrorism and irregular warfare. Key objectives of the CORE
program: 1. Expose and educate a generation of military officers as to the
utility of such methodologies-NPS produces intellectual capital; 2. Leverage
advanced information technologies to help understand and analyze the network
based adversaries in the irregular warfare environment; 3. Maintain currency
with the leading innovations of related analytical technologies.

The CORE Program consists of three components: 1. The CORE Lab: comprised
of data, hardware and software applicable to test theoretical concepts by
applying researching analytical technologies to include: Geospatial Information
Systems, socio-cultural data, Social Network Analysis, and temporal trend
analysis; 2. A course of instruction and a cadre of professors focused on the
study of terrorism, networked adversaries and irregular warfare; 3. Graduate
students willing to learn and apply advanced analytical technologies to research
questions and thesis projects related to irregular warfare.

The payoff of the CORE program is that it educates the students to use analytical
technologies to test different theoretical concepts in support of their thesis
research. In doing so, this program prepares officers to apply analytical
technologies and methods to the problems of terrorism, networked adversaries,
irregular warfare, and insurgency, thus filling the educational gap not addressed
by other institutions.

Currently, several of the major commands are establishing analytical cells to
better understand and analyze terrorism and irregular warfare. The data,
information technologies and theories applicable to irregular warfare exist-but
there is there is no formal education venue for officers to learn how to
systematically integrate and apply them. The CORE program prepares military
officers to return to the force armed with the ability to apply advanced analytical
technologies and theories to real world situations, as well as articulate the
appropriate requirements and manage similar efforts for the warfighter. The
CORE program efforts are directly applicable to special operations, intelligence,

5
  ―The resulting system needs to be able to operate in both a reachback and in a standalone
mode; it needs to be robust to disruptions in connectivity and maintain system and information
integrity and security; and it needs to be persistent across many operations so as to enable
learning, e.g., last years tsunami becomes this years game/simulation, which becomes next years
tuned instrumented SSTR/HADR C2 system.‖ (DARPA)



                                                                                            17
information operations, psychological operations, civil-military operations,
counter-insurgency, counter-terrorism, and irregular and asymmetric warfare.

Doug Borer, Defense Analysis daborer@nps.edu;
Nancy Roberts Defense Analysis, nroberts@nps.edu


   5.2. Civil Information Management in Complex Operations
The Naval Postgraduate School, United States Army Civil Affairs & Psychological
Command (USACAPOC), and the 95th Civil Affairs Brigade are developing
methodology for Civil Affairs soldiers in the field, working in operational and
Strategic headquarters; Civil Military Operations Centers (CMOC), and Provincial
Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) to collect, enter civil information based on
ASCOPE into a central database, and internally fused with the supported
element, higher headquarters, other USG/DOD agencies, and international and
NGOs to ensure the timely availability of information for analysis and the widest
possible dissemination of both the raw and analyzed civil information to military
and non-military partners throughout the area of operations.

The objective of civil information management is to support the National Military
strategy through the Army Campaign Plan. At the tactical to strategic level, civil
information management resides in the CMOC and is the supported
Commanders tool to purposefully shape the civil battlespace. It also tracks
interagency and civil-military collaboration and coordination projects.

Civil information management becomes a focal point for data collections at each
level of operations. The civil information management cell receives data from the
Civil Affairs Teams (CATs), the Coalition Liaison Teams (CLTs), and Functional
Specialists in the field and processes the data to help build the civil common
operational picture (COP). The Civil common operating picture is passed on to
the commander through the Civil Affairs Planning Teams (CAPTs) who are
analyzing the products for effects-base targeting and future planning. The CAPT
inputs the Civil COP into the supported Commander’s common operating
picture. This results in decision superiority and improved ―effects-based Civil
Military Operations activities.

Karen Guttieri, Cebrowski Institute for Innovation Guttieri@nps.edu

Key partners: NPS, USACAPOC, USASOC, USAJFKSWC, USARC, JFCOM,
SPAWAR USAID, DOS, DOS/HIU, Navy Maritime Civil Affairs Group, and DOS/
CRS, and NATO School, Oberammergau




                                                                                 18
   5.3. Decentralizing SSTR
Other topic area: mensuration

In this line of research, I am exploring whether SSTR operations should be
decentralized to the tactical level, to include the identification and management of
SSTR programs. SSTR operations often occur in countries characterized by
heterogeneous populations that reveal a diverse range of preferences.
Homogeneity in the production of SSTR is likely to be inefficient with respect to
allocative efficiency and may be inefficient with respect to technical efficiency as
production will not closely align with local preferences and needs.

Robert M. McNab, Ph.D. DRMI rmmcnab@nps.navy.mil


   5.4. A Maslow Approach to Distributing Emergency Action Information
        Technology Resources
Hastily formed networks (HFNs) formed to address crisis response actions
requiring the deployment of off-site emergency resources to coordinate multi-
agency response efforts face many issues in providing resources to wide variety
of clients responding to an emergency. These include issues not only with
technology training, logistics and operations, but also issues concerning human
behavior and organizational culture. Clients active in the HFN ―conversation
space‖ may vary greatly in objective, area and level of expertise, internal
organization and decision structure and resource contributions to the
coordination effort. Prior coordination and training are not likely. A time-phased
resource allocation approach modeled on portions of Maslow’s hierarchy of
human needs may provide a suitable method to meter the use of the coordinating
―conversation space‖ to quickly establish a common rule set, communication
protocols and operating procedures tailored to increase the efficiency and focus
of interagency emergency response actions.
Prof. Luqi, Computer Science, luqi@nps.edu

   5.5. Infrastructure for Hastily Formed Networks
Other topic area: semantic glue
Capable crisis response networks need a combination of flexible physical
networking and smart computational infrastructure. We propose mobile units for
communication that also host mobile agents for cognitive support. Agents are
oriented, aligned, synchronized, and updated automatically with relevant geo-
focused information drawn from the Global Information Grid and GPS. Semantic
models support interoperation of self-learning agents based on PAL and
Command World. There is a distributed commander for each subnet. Large scale
adaptation and effective use of limited resources on handheld mobile devices is
supported by categorization of specialized mobile agents that are brought in or
updated as needed over secure links. Optimization of communications subnets,


                                                                                 19
agent strategies, and mobile device contents uses alternating game theoretic and
dynamic programming objective functions. Biomedical models improve
interfaces, e.g. paraphrasing via natural language processing provides text
outputs accessible to emergency responders.
POC: Prof. Luqi, Computer Science, luqi@nps.edu

   5.6. Organic Sustainability: Private Sector Outreach
Beyond the band-aids of SSTR and HADR is the long-term sustainability of
socio-economic systems. Private enterprises are stakeholders vital to sustaining
development and building resilient communities. A private sector outreach
initiative facilitated by the Cebrowski Institute focuses upon identifying and
developing a network of social entrepreneurs within the business community. A
new corporate paradigm now sees opportunity in serving those markets at the
bottom of the socio-economic pyramid. Social entrepreneurs take into account
peace and environment dividends as part of their return on investment. For
example, the micro-credit company Kiva (http://www.kiva.org) uses the Internet
to deliver micro loans to those previously not served by traditional lending
institutions. This connects lenders at the top of the pyramid to borrowers at the
bottom.
Sue Higgins, Karen Guttieri, Cebrowski Institute, guttieri@nps.edu
Key partner: Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, UNC Chapel Hill, Cornell
University
   5.7. Determining the Best Approach to Organizing for a Particular
       Mission and Environment
No single, static organization is ideal for every mission and environment. This
represents a central tenet of long- and well-established Contingency Theory.
Rather, a variety of different—and integrated—organization structures, work-
process designs, technology architectures and personnel systems may be
warranted depending upon the specifics of and interactions between any
particular mission and environment. Unfortunately, most large enterprises (esp.
those in militaries, governments, corporations) understand how to organize in
only one way (e.g., generally via centralized and formalized hierarchy), and
hence encounter many, serious and avoidable difficulties when approaching
missions and environments for which their organizations do not provide an
appropriate fit. The key problem is that the leaders and policy makers of such
organizations are unaware generally of: when an alternate organizational
approach is warranted; which alternate approach would perform best; and how to
transition responsively from one organizational approach to another.

The research stream associated with the Center for Edge Power
(http://www.nps.navy.mil/GSOIS/cep/index.htm) at the Naval Postgraduate
School (NPS) has been addressing this issue for several years, and has
developed considerable knowledge and capability for both theoretical advance



                                                                                  20
and practical application. More than a dozen (and several award-winning) articles
have been published to disseminate results to date. Using a variety of research
methods (e.g., including computational modeling and simulation, laboratory
experimentation, field research), this work can span the range of topics from
highly exploratory work, through focused investigation, to operational application.
As a related case in point, this research can be used to gauge the mission-
environmental contexts in which hastily formed networks (HFNs) would represent
the most appropriate organizational response. This research stream has
attracted the positive attention of senior-level leaders and policy makers in the
US Department of Defense and several of its NATO counterparts, and applies
not only to (planned or spontaneous) military endeavors, but to (deliberate or
reactive) civil-military enterprises as well. It taps a network of world-class
researchers at the NPS and well beyond.

Dr. Mark Nissen (MNissen@nps.edu)


   5.8. Tactical SOA for HA/DR
A current need in HA/DR efforts is for users to dynamically self-register into an
environment capable of supporting all collaborative needs, to include
personalization of all communications such that users log into a personalized
portal that aggregates all email, RSS feeds, wiki, web conferences, instant
messages, VoIP traffic, secure virtual workspaces, and enterprise content
management into the personalized portal. This technology has been active as
TACFIRE (Tactical Applications for Collaboration in FORCEnet Innovation &
Research Enterprise) in Fleet, Coalition, and Joint Forces experimentation for the
past several years. These efforts have included simulated large-scale
coordination efforts among multiple nations and local, county, state, and federal
agencies on the east and west coasts to coordinate emergency measures. The
technology is based on an enterprise-class SOA and grid computing framework.

Dr. Randy Maule randy.maule@tacfire.nps.navy.mil
Dr. Shelley Gallup spgallup@nps.edu
Key partners: NETWARCOM, SPAWAR, JFCOM




                                                                                21
6. MENSURATION6
    6.1. Data Farming for Peacekeeping Support

The SEED Center for Data Farming at the Naval Postgraduate School has been
created to advance the collaborative development and use of simulation
experiments and efficient designs to provide decision makers with timely insights
on complex operations, such as those involved in SSTR and HA/DR. Through
data farming, we have been examining alternative approaches to developing an
understanding of various systems, finding robust decisions, tactics, or strategies,
and comparing the merits of a variety of decisions or policies. We have
developed our capabilities working with all services within the US, as well as
international partners, to include Germans on Peace Support Operations, New
Zealanders who have used our methods in East Timor, Swedes in looking at
collaborative decision-making, combat identification with our Dutch and British
allies, and critical infrastructure protection with our Mexican partners. Our
technologies and methods are designed to continually improve upon our abilities
to rapidly ask ―what if?‖ questions within a context of huge uncertainties in a
collaborative framework. http://harvest.nps.edu; Susan Sanchez 831-656-2780
smsanche@nps.edu; Gary Horne gehorne@nps.edu

    6.2. Boot Camp for Hastily Formed Networks
Other topic areas: (human) network performance, system level issues,
mensuration
A Hastily Formed Network is a social and communications structure formed to
deal with a crisis in an unexpected situation with degraded infrastructure. Crisis
response in uncertain dynamic environments overloads human cognitive abilities
and communications bandwidth. Computational assistance can help if it can take
over simpler tasks otherwise performed by people, but it must adapt to
unplanned changes without distracting the people from their own efforts on
higher priority tasks. The Personalized Assistant that Learns (PAL) being
developed by integrating machine learning strategies can learn new tasks and
new types of information. The PAL Boot Camp uses simulations to provide a
measurable training environment and principles for predicting and improving
learning agent’s probability of success in unexpected environments. Active
Conceptual Modeling supports learning from patterns connecting the past to the
present. We propose methods for preparing both people and PAL systems for
effective crisis action based on these approaches.
POC: Prof. Luqi, Computer Science, luqi@nps.edu

6
 ―The resulting system should be instrumented to support continuous adaptation, feedback, and
optimization of resources. Embedded real-time metrics could support machine learning for both
human networks and the communication networks upon which they depend. New concepts are
needed for defining metrics and instrumentation to support SSTR/HADR operations and measure
collaboration.‖ (DARPA)


                                                                                           22
   6.3. Developing Metrics for SSTR
In this line of research, I am exploring the intersection between the economics
literature with respect to contracting for performance and the literature on SSTR.
 Currently, SSTR doctrine fails to incorporate measures to address the issues of
goal congruence and perverse incentives. Given the number of stakeholders in
SSTR operations, understanding and achieving goal congruence is important to
avoid duplication of effort and negative externalities associated with SSTR
implementers competing for a limited number of host nation resources. SSTR
efforts are also hampered by the focus on inputs rather than outcomes. Metrics
aligned with inputs, to include a focus on obligating appropriations and arrests,
create an environment that is diametrically opposed to counter-insurgency and
stabilization doctrine.
Robert M. McNab, Ph.D. DRMI rmmcnab@nps.navy.mil


   6.4. Measures of Normlessness
A society can only bear change if its population can apply a meaningful
interpretation to social reality. Otherwise, social change leads to crisis-laden
insecurity and instability – anomie. Anomie describes the loss of compelling
norms that accompanies processes of rapid social change: traditional values and
norms become vague and disappear; they are no longer able to steer or guide
the individual. We provide an early detection system that uncovers hidden
structures and levels of anomie within a society before they turn into visible
patterns of (negative) behaviour. We seek to support decision-making for peace
and reconstruction in Afghanistan by compiling scientific data on the guiding
norms and values and ―public agenda‖ of different population sectors; detecting
current levels of anomie, socio-cultural, socio-economic and socio-political
determinants of observable resistance to change; processes and obstacles to
peaceful social development; risks of broad societal instability, violent upheaval
and social disintegration at an early stage. We combine micro-level analysis with
in-depth assessment of the macro-level, exploring development scenarios;
establishing a monitoring system capable of measuring changes within the
society on a regular basis. This project will integrate young Afghan researchers,
particularly women, into the project planning and implementation in order to build
capacities and empower young scientists and civil society.

Karen Guttieri, Cebrowski Institute, guttieri@nps.edu

Key partner: Swiss Academy for Development




                                                                                23
   6.5. Learning SSTR
NPS is part of a community of research and educational centers dedicated to
institutionalize Stabilization, Security, Transition and Reconstruction (SSTR)
lessons, research theoretical connections, help to depict the common operating
environment, and develop collaborative educational technologies and materials.
In the absence of institutionalization, lessons are lost, but institutionalization need
not be made up of bricks and mortar. NPS faculty and graduate researchers seek
lessons for prevention, and develop physical and virtual institutional constructs
for identifying, transmitting and intelligently archiving lessons. This collaborative
network of scholars and practitioners together address the boundaries between
security and development to identify needs, extant capabilities and gaps, and to
investigate identified questions. The experts participate in the development of an
information tagging and management system that interfaces with geo-spatial
technologies to support the collaborative user community network. Experts
participate in collaborative development of advanced distributed learning
materials, simulations and exercises that apply technology to overcome barriers
to knowledge acquisition. Finally, newly created and updated existing course
material will then be delivered to our Interactive Courseware Library development
process for production and inclusion in the library and feed scenario development
processes within a Training Exercise Environment for collective (distributed CAX)
and individual (PRT game) environments.

Key partners: Geneva Center for Security Policy; United States Army
Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute; United States Civil Affairs and
Psychological Operations Command, NATO School, SPAWAR

Karen Guttieri, Cebrowski Institute for Innovation, guttieri@nps.edu




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