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					A Nag-Nag-Nag Publication
         ----
The Doncaster 2009
   'William Hill'
 LINCOLN Preview
         ----    Featuring:
     Statistics, trends, race analysis,
                  and Including
       the Exclusive Nag3 Ratings




            Copyright: Gavin Priestley
                            THE WILLIAM HILL LINCOLN
                                 1 MILE, DONCASTER, CLASS 2, 4yo+

RACE HISTORY

The traditional curtain raiser to the flat is always a strongly contested and heavily oversubscribed
race full of experienced handicappers mixed with lightly raced 'talking horses'. To help ease the
disappointment of connections missing out on getting into the big race the racecourse responded in
1993 by adding a consolation race called The Spring Mile meaning two 'Lincoln's' for the price of
one. The Lincoln was moved to Redcar in 2006 and Newcastle in 2007 whilst the Doncaster course
was being renovated and all the trends & stats are for the 10 year period 1997-2005 & 2008

RECENT TRENDS

Killer stat: All 10 winners had already won at a Mile

    •      All 10 winners had raced no more than once since the end of the Turf Season
    •      None of the 10 winners had ever been jumping
    •      9 out of the 10 winners were aged 4-6
    •      8 of the 10 winners carried 9 stone or less
    •      8 of the 10 winners had won 1 of their last 3 races (9/10 1 of their 4 last runs)
    •      9 of the 10 winners had won a Class 3 or better race
    •      9 of the 10 winners had won at least 2 races

Interesting Fact: No horse since Babur in 1957/58 has won back-to-back Lincoln's


HOW THE LEADING FANCIES FIT THE TOP TRENDS

                  Won at 1m      1 run or less Aged 4-6        Won at least   Won 2 races Won 1 of
                                 since Nov                     Class 3 race   or more     last 3 (4)
Expresso Star     No             Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes              Yes
Swop              Yes            No             Yes            Yes            Yes              Yes
Charm School      No             Yes            Yes            No             No               No
Lady Deauville    Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes              Yes
Huzzah            Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes              No
Flipando          Yes            No             No             Yes            Yes              Yes
Benandonner       Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes              No
Don't Panic       Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes              No
Zaahid            Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes              No (Yes)
Dream Lodge       Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes              No
Slugger O'Toole   No             Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes              Yes
Titan Triumph     Yes            No             Yes            Yes            Yes              Yes
Cobo bay          Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes            Yes              No
                          1999 – 2008 PAST WINNERS

Year   Horse          Age          Trainer              Odds     Weight Off. Rating
2008   SMOKEY OAKEY 4              M. TOMPKINS          10/1     8-09         95
2007   VERY WISE      5            W. HAGGAS            9/1      8-11         91
2006   BLYTHE KNIGHT 6             J. QUINN             22/1     8-10         95
2005   STREAM OF GOLD 4            SIR M. STOUTE        5/1      9-00         100
2004   BABODANA       4            M. TOMPKINS          20/1     9-10         107
2003   PABLO          4            B W HILLS            5/1F     8-11         97
2002   ZUCCHERO       6            D. WARUTHNOT         33/1     8-13         91
2001   NIMELLO        5            P. COLE              9/2F     8-09         89
2000   JOHN FERNELEY 5             P. COLE              7/1JF    8-10         90
1999   RIGHT WING     5            J. DUNLOP            9/2F     9-05         100
1998   HUNT' OF BRORA 8            J. BETHELL           16/1     9-00         90
1997   KUALA LIPIS    4            P. COLE              11/1     8-06         86

TRAINER RECORDS
                     (RUNNERS – WINS – PLACED)                   (RUNNERS – WINS – PLACED)
M.THOMPKINS                6       2    1          D. NICHOLLS     14             0        0
B. HILLS                   5       1    0          R. HANNON       9              0        0
P. COLE                    8       3    0          M. CHANNON      6              0        0
R. FAHEY                   6       0    3          M. JARVIS       4              0        0
T. MILLS                   4       0    2          J. GOSDEN       2              0        0
J. DUNLOP                  3       1    2          E. DUNLOP       2              0        0
M. STOUTE                  2       1    0          Miss G. KELLEWAY5              0        0

PACE IN THE RACE – HOW THE FIRST THREE FINISHERS RACED

LED                  2             RACED PROMINENT               16
MID-DIVISION         11            HELP UP IN REAR               11

AVERAGE JOE – THE AVERAGE PROFILE OF THE WINNER


AGE WEIGHT POS LAST AW RUNS DAYS SINCE TOTAL FLAT                                 DRAW         ODDS
           TIME     IN SEASON LAST RUN RUNS
5      8s 12lb   4             0            >100            13                    10           10 to 1

COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
              (RUNNERS             WINNERS         PLACED                 % WIN & PLACE)
                                                                 to No. of Runners / to No. of Places (40)
GB Bred              94            4               12                    17%               40%
Irish Bred           97            4               14                    18.6%             45%
USA Bred             29            2               2                     13.8%             10%
French Bred          5             0               2                     40%               5%
German Bred          2             0               0                     0%                0%
                                    DRAW
                       st      nd
Year Going            1      2       3rd 4th
2008 Good/Soft        12     3       16  5
                                                           The recent renovation of the course has
2007 – Run at Newcastle                                    left the experts undecided about the
2006 – Run at Redcar                                       overall effect of the draw but from the
                                                           data that we do have available it seems
2005   Good           13     21      2      1              that the low numbers are still favoured.
2004   Good           23     16      12     24             In big field races it is beneficial to be
2003   Good           6      7       1      12             drawn against either of the rails.
2002   Good/Soft      7      6       13     12
2001   Soft           1      6       2      4
2000   Good           1      2       21     8
1999   Good/Soft      8      11      7      22
1998   Good           23     12      6      5
1997   Good/Firm      21     6       4      10


KEY TRIAL

Three of the winners to have won the Lincoln and having run on the All Weather, ran at
Wolverhampton two weeks previous.

WILLIAM HILL Lincoln Trial - March 7th Wolverhampton

The first two home look set to take their chances in Saturday's big race and with Flipando receiving
a 5lb penalty for winning here there shouldn't be too much in it again on the revised terms. The pace
of the race was very uneven and it didn't seem to suit Flipando but he stayed on well when asked
and knuckled down for a ¾ length victory from the brave Ace of Hearts. Neither of them though
possess a good trends profile for the Lincoln with Flipando now having had two runs in this AW
season and Ace of Hearts being a 10yo.
APPLYING THE TRENDS

Being a distance winner is a must...

Meaning Expresso Star, Charm School and Philario don't cut the mustard.

Winners have usually only had one run maximum since the end of the last Turf season...

Swop, Eva's Request, Docofthebay, Royal Power, Whistledownthewind, Flipando, Philario, Titan
Triumph and Ace of Hearts are therefore excluded.

No recent winner had been hurdling over the Winter...

Meaning European Dream & Blythe Knight are for the high jump.

It's usually best to concentrate on the 4-6yo age group...

Pensioning off Blythe Knight, Flipando, Bolodenka and Ace of Hearts

Only winners of at least two races, one of a Class 3 or better standard and preferably in their
last four runs need apply...

Dream Lodge won 5 races ago, Don't Panic 6, Mias Boy 5, Huzzah 6 and Cobo Bay 7. You're Fired!

Leaving just two, top-weight Lady Deauville and Zaahid.

With 8 of the 10 winners carrying 9 stone or less I will give 'weigh' to Lady Deauville and suggest
Zaahid is the most likely trends winner.

EXCLUSIVE NAG RATINGS

PLEASE NOTE: These ratings do not take into account the draw;

DREAM LODGE                  87

ZAAHID                       86
DON'T PANIC                  86
EXPRESSO STAR                85
LADY DEAUVILLE               84
MIAS BOY                     84
HUZZAH                       83
SWOP                         80
FLIPANDO                     79


SELECTIONS

ZAAHID will be the main selection but for those looking for a nice priced outsider either Dream
Lodge or Lady Deauville could fit the bill.
                                   AND FINALLY.....
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