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					Beyond Blogs and Social Networks
New Technologies & New Ideas
December 1, 2005




Jonathan Carson
President & CEO
carson@buzzmetrics.com
(646) 253-1901
    BuzzMetrics Overview
    About BuzzMetrics
             •      Proprietary software to identify, gather, process millions of unaided online
                    conversations (forums, blogs, email lists, review sites, etc.)
             •      BuzzMetrics has performed WOM research and planning for 50 F1000’s.
             •      Clients include GM, HP, JetBlue, Comcast, Whirlpool, Mazda, 14 of top 15
                    pharmas, 7 of top 10 food companies, etc.
             •      Recognized leaders: co-founders of Word of Mouth Marketing Association;
                    featured in CBS News, NY Times, WSJ, Economist, NPR, many more.
             •      SEPTEMBER 2005: BuzzMetrics acquired by Trendum, emerging
                    competitor backed strategically and financially by VNU.


    About WOMMA
             •      Founded 2004; over 120 member companies.
             •      Hugely successful inaugural conference in March 2005.
             •      Main priorities: Standards & Metrics; Ethics guidelines; industry education.



2   [Private and Confidential]
How important are these
New Technologies & New Ideas?
How important are blogs?
A new blog is created every second


          Source: Technorati
How important are social networks?
MySpace has 50% more traffic than Google

     It should surpass MSN and AOL
           within a few months

       Only Yahoo will have more


             Source: Comscore
How important are wikis?
 Wikipedia is #1 online reference site

            By a long shot

Double the traffic of #2 Dictionary.com
   Five times the traffic of Encarta

             Source: Hitwise
How important are podcasts?
5 million U.S. podcast users in 2005 (up 500%)

  Forecasted to grow to 63 million by 2010

XM and Sirius have about 7mm subscribers…
 … and a combined market cap of $16 billion

         Source: Bridge Ratings, Yahoo! Finance
How important is photo sharing?
  June 2205: Flickr had 19.5 million photos,
     80% of which are shared publicly

At current growth rate, over 75 million photos
available for public download by end of 2005

Getty Images, world's largest image archive,
      has 70 million images for sale…
       …And a $5.7 billion market cap

       Source: Internet News, Yahoo! Finance
How important are these
New Technologies?




                      ?
The bigger point:
The role of consumers
in media and marketing
has fundamentally changed.
A powerful global conversation has begun. Through the Internet,
people are discovering and inventing new ways to share relevant
knowledge with blinding speed. As a direct result, markets are
getting smarter—and getting smarter faster than most
companies.

These markets are conversations.


-- The Cluetrain Manifesto (1999)
     Word of Mouth: Dominant new marketing force
     Official WOMMA Definitions


     What is “word of mouth”?
     One consumer passing marketing-relevant information to
       other consumers.


     What is “word of mouth marketing”?
     Any marketing effort designed to affect the ways in which one
       consumer passes information to other consumers.




17   [Private and Confidential]
      Why is WOM an important media channel?
     Consumers trust WOM dramatically more than other media.

                                   The website                                 8%
      Factors make you most
                                   Advertisement                              15%
      comfortable purchasing a
      product?                     Newspaper/Magazine recommended it          22%
      - Mediaedge
                                   A friend recommended it                    76%

                                   Television                                 21%
      Best source for advice on    Newspaper/Magazine                         26%
      a new product:               Info services (e.g. Consumer Reports)      35%
      - Yankelovich
                                   Another consumer                           67%

                                   1977                         2005
                                   Editorial           47%      Editorial     40%
      Best source for new ideas
      about products:              Advertising         53%      Advertising   50%
      - NOP                        Word of                      Word of
                                   Mouth              67%       Mouth         92%

18    [Private and Confidential]
     Why is online WOM becoming so powerful
     1.) Channel is large and growing
              •      44% of online U.S. adults – over 50 million Americans – are “content
                     creators” [Pew Internet]
              •      Virtually all online consumers encounter consumer generated content.
              •      8% of online adults blog; 27% of online adults read blogs [Pew Internet]


     2.) Internet increases power of consumer influencers
              •      Consumer influencers able to dramatically increase their reach.
              •      Consumers seeking help from consumer experts can find them much more
                     easily.


     3.) Consumer content increasingly dominates Internet
         content.




19   [Private and Confidential]
     Consumer content dominates Internet
     Jupiter Research found that 26% of top search results for world’s
     twenty largest brands is consumer-generated.

                                                                Corporate content,
                                     Other (affiliate, etc.),
                                                                      18%
                                             22%




                                                                          Media content, 12%




                                     Consumer
                                  generated content,
                                         26%                    Expert content, 22%



                                                                                      Source: Jupiter Research

20   [Private and Confidential]
FACT #1:
Consumers trust the opinion of other consumers
more than they trust
advertising,
spokespeople,
unbiased “expert” third parties,
or the traditional media.
FACT #2:
New technology tools have
made it remarkably easy
for consumers to create media
to share with other consumers.
FACT #3:
New technology tools have
also made it remarkably easy
for consumers to find the media
created by other consumers.
RAMIFICATION:

To effectively reach consumers in the future,
companies must enter into the global conversation.


What‟s the first thing you do if you want to enter a
conversation?



You listen.
     Four things you can do
         by listening…

         1. See the future…

2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…

3. Create a hit with no advertising…

4. Understand the language of buzz…
     Four things you can do
         by listening…

         1. See the future…

2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…

3. Create a hit with no advertising…

4. Understand the language of buzz…
     Case Study: Nutrition buzz

     The Situation
     Food co‟s miss several major nutrition trends b/c have no way
       to track grassroots, consumer-driven movements.


     Opportunity
     Study buzz on nutrition as predictive tool.


     Solution
     Identify 500 most influential nutrition consumers and study
        nutrition issues they talk about most frequently.




27   [Private and Confidential]
     Current trend: Death of Low Carb


                                         Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “Low Carb”
                                         90%                                                                                   9%


                                         80%                                                                                   8%


                                         70%                                                                                   7%


                                         60%                                                                                   6%
                      Influencer Panel




                                                                                                                                    Early Majority
                                         50%                                                                                   5%


                                         40%                                                                                   4%


                                         30%                                                                                   3%


                                         20%                                                                                   2%


                                         10%                                                                                   1%


                                         0%                                                                                    0%
                                               Q4 2003      Q1 2004        Q2 2004        Q3 2004   Q4 2004          Q1 2005

                                                  Influencer Panel           Dieters                 Diabetics
                                                  Conscientious Consumer     Nutrition Experts       Fitness Buffs
                                                  Head of Household          Early Majority Panel




28   [Private and Confidential]
     Current trend: Death of Low Carb


                                          Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “Atkins Diet”
                                          80%                                                                                   12%


                                          70%
                                                                                                                                10%

                                          60%

                                                                                                                                8%
                                          50%
                       Influencer Panel




                                                                                                                                      Early Majority
                                          40%                                                                                   6%


                                          30%
                                                                                                                                4%

                                          20%

                                                                                                                                2%
                                          10%


                                           0%                                                                                   0%
                                                Q4 2003      Q1 2004        Q2 2004        Q3 2004   Q4 2004          Q1 2005

                                                   Influencer Panel           Dieters                 Diabetics
                                                   Conscientious Consumer     Nutrition Experts       Fitness Buffs
                                                   Head of Household          Early Majority Panel



29   [Private and Confidential]
     Current trend: Death of Low Carb


                     Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “South Beach Diet”

                                          60%                                                                                   8%


                                                                                                                                7%
                                          50%

                                                                                                                                6%

                                          40%
                                                                                                                                5%
                       Influencer Panel




                                                                                                                                     Early Majority
                                          30%                                                                                   4%


                                                                                                                                3%
                                          20%

                                                                                                                                2%

                                          10%
                                                                                                                                1%


                                          0%                                                                                    0%
                                                Q4 2003      Q1 2004        Q2 2004        Q3 2004   Q4 2004          Q1 2005

                                                   Influencer Panel           Dieters                 Diabetics
                                                   Conscientious Consumer     Nutrition Experts       Fitness Buffs
                                                   Head of Household          Early Majority Panel




30   [Private and Confidential]
     Current trend: Rise of portion control

                                     Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “portion control”

                                     50%                                                                              1.2%

                                     45%
                                                                                                                      1.0%
                                     40%

                                     35%
                                                                                                                      0.8%
                  Influencer Panel




                                     30%




                                                                                                                             Early Majority
                                     25%                                                                              0.6%

                                     20%
                                                                                                                      0.4%
                                     15%

                                     10%
                                                                                                                      0.2%
                                     5%

                                     0%                                                                               0.0%
                                           Q4/2003       Q1/2004   Q2/2004      Q3/2004        Q4/2004      Q1/2005

                                              Nutrition Panel         Conscientious Consumer      Diabetes
                                              Dieters                 Fitness Buffs               Head of Household
                                              Nutrition Experts       Early Majority


31   [Private and Confidential]
     Current trend: Rise of portion control


                                   Diets most frequently linked to portion control.
            35%          33%

            30%
                                       27%
            25%


            20%


            15%                                       14%


            10%                                                     9%
                                                                                  7%
                                                                                              5%
              5%                                                                                        3%
                                                                                                                         2%
                                                                                                                                       1%
              0%




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32   [Private and Confidential]
     Four things you can do
         by listening…

         1. See the future…

2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…

 3. Create a hit with no advertising…

4. Understand the language of buzz….
     Case Study: BuzzMetrics/Pew Political Buzz

     Three primary research goals:


                  (1) Uncover learnings about political blogs.


                      (2) Study increasing ability of individuals
                                  to instigate “civic storms”.


                            (3) Understand affect of civic storms
                                     on National agenda.




34   [Private and Confidential]
     Cross media channel analysis

     1.) Political Blogs
              •      40 A List political blogs.
              •      18,000 posts.


     2.) Citizen Chatter
              •      15 discussion forums.
              •      2.1 million comments.


     3.) Mainstream Media
              •      16 outlets, including print, TV, online, radio.


     4.) Campaigns
              •      Bush and Kerry blogs, newsrooms; DNC/RNC newsrooms.



35   [Private and Confidential]
     Targeted discussion topic analysis

                                  FIGURE: Top 20 Blogger Issues            Freq.     %

                                              Iraq: General Situation      183      13.1%

                                              Horserace: Debate            176      12.6%

                                              Horserace: Voters            172      12.3%
     Unaided research                         Horserace: Poll              165      11.8%

     environment allows highly                Social: Media                158      11.3%

                                              Foreign Affairs: Terrorism   148      10.6%
     targeted topic analysis.                 Character Trait: Kerry       144      10.3%

                                              Iraq: US Troops              111      7.9%

                                              Character Trait: Bush        110      7.9%

                                              Govt: Bush Admin             110      7.9%

                                              Horserace: Swing States       91      6.5%

                                              Iraq: WMD                     87      6.2%

                                              Govt: Intelligence            77      5.5%

                                              Govt: Policy                  75      5.4%

                                              Iraq: Saddam                  74      5.3%

                                              Horserace: VP Candidate       57      4.1%

                                              Horserace: Strategy           55      3.9%

                                              Govt: Homeland Security       55      3.9%
                                              Govt: Military                52      3.7%

                                              Foreign Affairs: Europe       51      3.6%

                                              TOTAL N                       1,400



36   [Private and Confidential]
     Some buzz storms are constant and intense

                                                       Buzz for “Iraq”
                                    40%                                                                                  100%

                                                                                                                         90%

                                                                                                                         80%
                                    30%
                                                                                                                         70%




                                                                                                                                Campaign Output
                Chatter & Blogs




                                                                                                                         60%

                                    20%                                                                                  50%

                                                                                                                         40%

                                                                                                                         30%
                                    10%
                                                                                                                         20%

                                                                                                                         10%

                                     0%                                                                                  0%
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                                         Conservative Chatter   General Chatter   Liberal Chatter   Conservative Blogs
                                         General Blogs          Liberal Blogs     Kerry             Bush


37   [Private and Confidential]
     Other storms are brief and pass quickly

                                  Buzz for “missing explosives controversy”
              60%


              50%


              40%


              30%


              20%


              10%


                0%
                  10/23/04          10/27/04    10/31/04         11/4/04        11/8/04      11/12/04     11/16/04       11/20/04
                                               General Blogs               Liberal Blogs          Conservative Blogs
                                               General Chatter             Liberal Chatter        Conservative Chatter
                                               Bush Campaign               Kerry Campaign         Media


38   [Private and Confidential]
     Buzz origination can be dissected

                                  Correlation between media channels


                                                    .45                                   .41

                                                    .37    LIB         CON                .54

                                        .42                                                                .39
                                                          .82                 .50
                                              .26                                                 .30


                                                                 .65    .78
                                                                                            .09

                                                    .34                                     .26
                                        KERRY       .13          MEDIA                      .56
                                                                                                        BUSH


                                                    .45

                                                                .42           .40
                                              .66                                                 .45

                                        .56                      .34    .64         .22                    .54
                                                    .58                                     .38
                                                                                CON
                                                                       GEN
                                                            LIB




                                                    .63                                     .63

                                  .81               .34                                     .34
                                                          .89                       .79


39   [Private and Confidential]
     Buzz paths can be understood

     Need to pursue our finding that topic preference
       of bloggers correspond more with
       those of the citizen chatterers
       and MSM than the latter two
       did with each other.




40   [Private and Confidential]
     Bloggers used buzz to keep Rathergate alive
     * 9/10 – 9/19: Conservative bloggers stayed with the forgery topic more than
          liberals.
     * 9/21: Interest for all groups surges in response to CBS apology.
                                                               FIGURE: Conversation share of Rathergate issue.
                               45%                                                                                                                                           18


                               40%                                                                                                                                           16


                               35%                                                                                                                                           14




                                                                                                                                                                                  Campaign Output & Media
                               30%                                                                                                                                           12
             Chatter & Blogs




                               25%                                                                                                                                           10


                               20%                                                                                                                                           8


                               15%                                                                                                                                           6


                               10%                                                                                                                                           4


                                5%                                                                                                                                           2


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                                    Liberal Chatter                       Conservative Chatter                    Liberal Blogs                        Conservative Blogs
                                    Media Articles                        Bush                                    Kerry


41   [Private and Confidential]
     Four things you can do
         by listening…

         1. See the future…

2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…

 3. Create a hit with no advertising…

4. Understand the language of buzz….
     Case Study: Large appliance manufacturer
     The Situation

     1. Manufacturer begins to receive fan mail for a washing
        machine.

     2. Seriously. They were shocked too.

     3. Beyond fan mail, anecdotal reports of evangelism filter in.
        Manufacturer turns to online to better understand this
        phenomenon.
              •      How big was it?
              •      Who were these consumers?
              •      What was driving this?
              •      How could they leverage it?



43   [Private and Confidential]
       Surprising findings about existing buzz igniters
 WOM Strategy Takeaway
 » Focus in on & amplify organic interest in product among males.

                                             Who Are The Most Passionate Owners?

                                                  Unknown
                                                    3%




                                                                                   Male
                                                                                   48%
                                    Female
                                     49%




Source: BuzzMetrics Research


 44    [Private and Confidential]
        Understand why buzz already happening
      WOM Strategy Must
      » Natural desire to share „war stories‟ and proof points.
                                                          What Do Passionate Owners Talk About?
     Provide Usage Reports                                                                                          23%


          Misc Duet Banter                                                                        18%


             Promote/Sway                                                              14%


 Complementary products                                                          13%


        Provide Usage Tips                                        8%


 Seek/Provide Product Info                                   7%


        Seek Tech Support                            5%


         Request Features                      4%


        Give Tech Support                      4%


         Seeks Usage Tips                 3%


            FL/TL debates            2%


                             0%                     5%                 10%              15%             20%               25%
                                                                                                              Source: BuzzMetrics Research

45      [Private and Confidential]
“I have played with my machine in the past.
           Testing its limitations.”
            That Home Site, 2003-10-08


“The stuff you can wash is amazing. Stuffed
animals…antique quilts, comforters, electric
      blankets, 22 towels (it is true)....
           I'm still much in love.”
      Epinions – Washing Machines, 2003-09-22
     Marketing programs amplify natural buzz

Examples of what people report challenging the machine with:
» 3' x 5' area rug
» Satin dance/drill uniform
» 10 yard piece of fabric
» Sleeping bags
» Stuffed animals
» 22 towels
                                          The Result:
» Cat/Pet Bedding
» Sneakers                  Sponsorships & grassroots activities
» Little league uniforms      with key little league/youth sport
» Little league uniforms              organizations.
» Little league uniforms



47   [Private and Confidential]
     Four things you can do
         by listening…

         1. See the future…

2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…

 3. Create a hit with no advertising…

4. Understand the language of buzz….
      Case Study: Oprah Car Giveaway
                       How strongly are consumers linking GM to the Oprah event?

                 90%
                                                                                                                   84%

                 80%
                                                                                             74%

                 70%
                                       64%

                 60%                                              56%

                 50%         46% 46%

                 40%                                      36%

                 30%

                 20%
                                                    14%     14%
                                                                                       12%              12%
                                                                                 10%
                                                                            8%
                 10%                                                                                          6%
                                                                                                   4%
                                             0%
                  0%
                                GM Segment        General Auto Segment      Competitive Auto       General Interest
                                                                               Segment

Source: BuzzMetrics Research                               GM     Pontiac   G6   No Link


 49    [Private and Confidential]
      Buzz tracking is crucial
                                              AT FIRST:

“Bottom line: It was a win-win situation for Oprah and Pontiac. For whatever Pontiac
                    paid, they'll get their money back and more.”
                                   Car and Driver Forums, 2004-09-15

                                             BUT THEN:

“The G6 should be renamed the Pontiac Oprah. Because of its close association with
                Oprah, this will be a chick car and not a guy's car.”
                                    GMInsidenews.com, 2004-09-16


               “It would've been nice for Oprah or GM to pay for EVERYTHING.”
                                       Free Republic, 2004-09-22


“So they sell the car, pay the 7G's and then use the other 20G's left to buy a different
           car. They can get a Civic for 14, which is a better car anyway.”
                                      Runners World, 2004-09-22

 50   [Private and Confidential]

				
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