TAOS ECONOMIC REPORT
A Public Service Project of the Taos County Chamber of Commerce
DRAFT
Economic Indicators and Statistics - 1st Quarter 2008
GROSS RECEIPTS
New Mexico levies a tax on most business and personal servicies, including construction. The broadly-based statistic of gross receipts reported provides a good measure of economic trends. It is especially useful because it is a tabulation rather than an estimate and normally is the first economic statistics report issued. The format of the reports was changed in October 2003 to replace the Standard Industrial Classification System(SIC) in popular use since the early 1980s with the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
Table 1.
Gross Receipts Reported, Taos County, NM, 07, $ 2007 1,963,167 * 45,828,386 149,684,007 23,854,939 37,903,189 315,216,071 3,067,181 16,931,700 7,597,497 22,083,316 25,811,052 * 8,739,349 1,726,558 33,970,194 6,892,210 89,834,340 78,052,670 2,297,658 872,355,898 1.0% 0.2% 3.9% 0.8% 10.3% 8.9% 0.3% 5.3% 17.2% 2.7% 4.3% 36.1% 0.4% 1.9% 0.9% 2.5% 3.0% % 07 0.2%
Table 2.
Gross Receipts Reported, Taos County, NM, Recent Quarters Rpt Gr Receipts % Cg f/Prv Pd % Cg CPI (U) 195,072,830 188,010,462 199,717,163 211,507,811 794,308,267 191,419,875 196,992,325 222,352,540 240,136,496 850,901,236 209,217,561 234,549,916 228,702,200 240,675,635 913,145,312 199,541,070 216,117,299 220,648,518 236,049,011 872,355,898 211,947,232 New Mexico Taxation & Revenue Department, Quarterly RP80 annualized. -0.9% 17.5% -0.1% 25.3% 6.2% -1.9% 4.8% 11.3% 13.5% 7.1% 9.3% 19.1% 2.9% 0.2% 7.3% -4.6% -7.9% -3.5% -1.9% -4.5% 6.2% 1.8% 2.9% 2.0% 3.3% 2.4% 3.0% 3.0% 4.6% 2.0% 3.4% 3.6% 4.0% 3.1% 2.2% 3.2% 2.4% 2.7% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% 4.1% % Cg Adj -2.7% 14.6% -2.1% 22.0% 3.8% -4.9% 1.8% 6.7% 11.5% 3.7% 5.7% 15.1% -0.2% -2.0% 4.1% -7.0% -10.6% -5.9% -4.7% -7.3% 2.1%
INDUSTRY Agriculture, Forestry & Hunting Mining & Oil Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Information & Cultural Industries Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Professional, Scientific & Technical Serv Mgmnt of Companies and Enterprises Admin & Support, Waste Mgt. & Remed. Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodations & Food Services Other Services, Execpt Public Admin Unclassified Establishments Totals * Data witheld due to disclosure guidance.
Qtr / Yr 1st / 04 2nd / 04 3rd / 04 4th / 04 2004 1st / 05 2nd / 05 3rd / 05 4th / 05 2005 1st / 06 2nd / 06 3rd / 06 4th / 06 2006 1st / 07 2nd / 07 3rd / 07 4th / 07 2007 1st / 08 2nd / 08 3rd / 08 4th / 08 2008 Source:
Source:
New Mexico Taxation & Revenue Department, Quarterly RP80 annualized. = Decrease from same period of the earlier year.
Shaded Cells
As shown in Table 1, Retail Trade dominates the gross receipts reporte statistic in Taos County, at 36.1% of the total. Services (defined for this report as the sum of the ten industries Professsional, Scientific and Technical Services through Unclassified Establishments) follows at 28.4%. Other large industries not a part of services include Construction at +17.2%.
Table 2, shows gross receipts reported by quarters and annually since 2004. The four year average growth rate is 4.0%. The third and fourth quarters of 2005 and second quarter of 2006 all experienced double digit growth rates. 2007 suffered four consecutive quarters of negative growth. When adjusted for inflation by applying the Consumer Price Index (Urban) a recession was experienced during the previous six quarters (a negative percentage change over the same time in the previous year for two consecutive quarters defines a "recession". The previous recession in recent times was for the middle quarters of 1997.
Table 3.
Gross Recepits Reported, Dollars, Taos County, New Mexico, First Quarter 2004 Through 2008
Table number three compares gross receipts reported in the First Quarters of 2004 through 2008 for the major industrial sectors of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). 1st Quarter INDUSTRY Agriculture, Forestry & Hunting Mining & Oil Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Information & Cultural Industries Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Admin & Support, Waste Mgt. & Remed. Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodations & Food Services Other Services, Execpt Public Administration Unclassified Establishments Totals Loss from previous reporting period. Source: * New Mexico Taxation and revenue Department, Quarterly RP-80. Data witheld due to disclosure guidance. 2004 699,570 * 10,931,142 31,523,008 5,437,539 12,297,589 65,823,546 1,060,562 3,704,081 2,725,927 5,144,470 3,560,124 * 82,387 142,827 7,727,450 1,405,198 21,052,240 488,697 195,072,831 2005 635,451 * 12,470,509 41,666,335 4,986,740 6,649,516 63,892,246 1,541,504 3,914,989 1,538,389 4,606,914 4,245,573 * 426,624 351,136 7,363,219 1,726,670 18,740,336 63,839 191,419,875 -1.9% 344,121 291,115 7,037,405 1,508,683 16,540,775 21,912,590 545,228 209,217,561 9.3% 1,539,540 309,628 8,434,455 1,687,273 20,515,679 11,584,612 427,994 199,541,070 -4.6% 2006 * * 13,905,937 46,073,879 5,145,178 7,580,022 69,381,294 665,627 4,101,155 2,138,340 6,661,487 4,868,406 2007 398,582 * 14,346,998 38,732,590 4,995,608 8,290,707 71,349,711 1,145,780 3,315,983 2,066,541 5,049,896 5,281,098 2008 * * 15,787,097 36,665,262 4,886,444 7,103,709 70,648,618 828,840 5,553,197 1,701,458 4,935,537 6,427,753 * 1,631,754 426,225 9,835,035 1,358,804 23,751,884 19,443,835 622,138 211,947,231 6.2% * 1,440,099 (2,067,328) (109,164) (1,186,999) (701,093) (316,940) 2,237,215 (365,083) (114,360) 1,146,655 * 92,214 116,597 1,400,580 (328,470) 3,236,204 7,859,224 194,144 * 6.0% 37.7% 16.6% -19.5% 15.8% 67.8% 45.4% * 10.0% -5.3% -2.2% -14.3% -1.0% -27.7% 67.5% -17.7% -2.3% 21.7% $ Change 1st Q-08/07 % Change 1st Q-08/07
21,105,292 16578467,82
Three of the five largest NAICS industries in the first quarter of 2008 had positive growth. Utilities (5.3% of the total) gained $1,440,099. (+10.0%), Accommodations and Food Service (10.3% of the total) gained $3,236,204. (+15.8%) and Other Services (except public administraion) gained $7,859,224. (+67 Construction (17.2% of the total) lost -$2,067,328. (-5.3%) and Retail Trade lost -$701,093. (-1.0%). Other notable losers not in the largest industries include Wholesale Trade at -$1,186,999.
Seven industries experienced large growth rates, Other Services, (Except Public Administration) increased by 67.8%, Information and Cultural Industries by 67.5%, Educational Services by 37.7%, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services by 21.7%, Health Care and Social Assistance by 16.6%, Accommodations and Food Service by 15.8% and Utilities by 10.0%.
Tables number 4 and 5 lists the "Top Ten" sectors that either gained or lost in quarterly gross receipts reported. For recent reports, the lists of gainers and losers both have been dominated by a single sector, Grocery Stores and Miscellaneous Retail Trade, respectively. Table 4. 810000 722300 513300 445100 622000 541990 221100 722410 421990 812990 Top 10 NAICS Sector Gainers in Gross Receipts Reported, Dollars, First Quarters, 2008 to 2007 Other Services (Except Public Administration) Special Food Service (Includes Food Service Contractor & Catering) Telecommunications Grocery Stores Hospitals All Other Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Electric Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) Other Miscellaneous Durable Goods Wholesaler All Other Personal Services Total 7,147,558 2,563,055 2,225,720 1,752,470 1,077,031 1,027,064 1,010,607 926,245 772,761 524,763 19,027,274 37.6% 13.5% 11.7% 9.2% 5.7% 5.4% 5.3% 4.9% 4.1% 2.8%
Other Services (Except Public Administration) by far had the greatest gain $7,147,558. or 37.6% of the Top Ten. Other Services (Except Public Administration) by for had the greatest gain $7,147,558. or 37.6% of the Top Ten. This sector has shown rather dramatic swings between reporting periods, due in part to the next eight industries had gains greater than the average rate of 4.0% for the past four years.
Table 5. 453000 421700 531000 422990 233200 235000 233000 721000 235310 234100
Top 10 NAICS sector Losers in Gross Receipts Reported, Dollars, First Quarter 2008 to 2007 Miscellaneous Store Retailers Hardware, Plumbing and Heating Equiptment and Supply Wholesaler Real Estate Other Miscellaneous Non-Durable Goods Wholesalers Residential Building Construction Special Trade Contractors Building, Developing and General Contracting Accommdations Electrical Contractors Highway Street, Bridge and Tunnel Construction Total Difference (1,640,617) (1,093,255) (1,036,615) (925,118) (875,219) (856,446) (699,689) (626,566) (576,874) (558,697) (7,248,479) 11,778,795 22.6% 15.1% 14.3% 12.8% 12.1% 11.8% 9.7% 8.6% 8.0% 7.7% (includes WalMart)
Five of the "Top Ten" sector losers are made up of the construction industry that account for ( -$3,566,925.) or (-49.3%) of the combined loss. If the Hardware, Plumbing and Heating Equiptment and Supply Wholesaler sector and the Real Estate sector were to be included in the Construction related total the combined loss would be (-$5,696,795.) or (-78.6%).
Although Tourism is not a defined industry, it can be measured by proxy industries. As shown in Table 6, the appropriate large proxies under the new NAICS format are four: AMUSEMENTS GAMBLING & RECREATION, ACCOMMODATIONS, FULL-SERVICE RESTAURANTS and DRINKING PLACES.
Table 6.
Tourism Indicator, from Gross Receipts Reported, $, Taos County, New Mexico Amusements Gambling & Recreation % Chg from Previous Rpt Period -21.7% 3.9% -17.2% 16.2% -8.4% -11.9% -9.9% 4.1% 5.8% -3.4% -15.2% 15.6% -2.7% -13.9% -4.2% 22.9% -12.7% 8.7% 4.9% 5.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5%
Accommod 7,940,805 7,168,407 8,321,405 6,490,430 29,921,047 7,346,153 6,709,376 8,732,458 6,815,251 29,603,238 5,670,633 6,645,113 7,500,899 4,845,282 24,661,927 5,580,688 5,450,546 7,422,881 4,948,469 23,402,584 4,954,122 4,954,122
Full - Service Resturants 9,468,312 10,130,410 9,549,451 8,271,699 37,419,872 7,475,764 8,545,279 9,842,721 8,872,712 34,736,476 7,064,372 11,367,542 10,304,283 7,971,036 36,707,233 10,069,146 9,929,107 12,346,491 9,151,025 41,495,769 9,953,671 9,953,671
Drinking Places 2,824,771 1,487,331 1,559,140 1,531,747 7,402,989 2,886,821 1,591,169 1,680,407 1,572,739 7,731,136 2,173,696 1,600,252 1,976,168 1,813,562 7,563,678 2,737,739 1,643,383 1,738,459 1,528,308 7,647,889 3,663,984 3,663,984
Tourism Total 21,167,613 19,334,555 20,315,689 16,890,852 77,708,709 18,656,480 17,413,094 21,145,762 17,877,308 75,092,644 15,825,669 20,134,150 20,580,412 15,384,906 71,925,137 19,456,510 17,579,958 22,373,327 16,141,532 75,551,327 19,367,734 19,367,734
2004
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr
933,725 548,407 885,693 596,976 2,964,801 947,742 567,270 890,176 616,606 3,021,794 916,968 521,243 799,062 755,026 2,992,299 1,068,937 556,922 865,496 513,730 3,005,085 795,957 795,957
Annual 2005 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Annual 2006 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Annual 2007 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Annual 2008 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr Totals
Declines in gross receipts reported from the previous reporting period.
Of the 17 quarters displayed in Table 6 over half (shaded cells "Tourism Total" column) have seen decreases in the Tourism Index. The index for the first quarter 2008 shows a very slight decrease for the same reporting period for 2007. When adjusted for inflation by applying the Consumer Price Index (Urban) value of 4. the decrease becomes -4.6%. The only gain was Drinking Places at $962,245. or +33.8%. The losses were Accommodations at -$626,566. or -25.5% and Amusements, Gambling and Recreation at -$272,980. or -25.6%.