Vulnerability and Climate Change - the Development Challenge

Vulnerability and Climate Change - The Development Challenge Phil O’Keefe The Geographical Association, Newcastle, 2008 OVERVIEW • The political economy of humanitarianism • Climate Change • Key Questions • Exogenous and endogenous pressures • Location of study area • Methodology • Key Hypothesis • Important preliminary results • Agricultural extensification, intensification and off-farm income • How vulnerable are the Chagga to climate change? The Political Economy of Humanitarianism •1990-2005 from 500 million to 8 billion •20 million refugees, 40 million IDPs •From natural disasters to complex emergencies •Reorganisation of the UN system •Growth of international NGOs •A need for pre-disaster planning Climate Change Challenges •IPPC 4 - Variability •Stern - Project to Programme •Post Kyoto •Carbon footprint negotiations within and between countries CLIMATE CHANGE • Synoptic Change; large scale system change -Global movement of ITCZ; high pressure system that dominates African weather -Regional impact of El Nino(e.g.1997); movement of the southern ocean oscillation -Deglaciation of Kilimanjaro but competing explanations; no ice in 25 years Annual Rainfall 2500 2000 Rainfall (mms) 1500 1000 500 0 Annual Total Rainfall Rainfall Trend Source: Kilimanjaro Meteorological Office Mean Yearly Temperature 31.0 30.5 30.0 Temperature °C 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.5 Mean Yearly Temperature Temperature Trend Source: Kilimanjaro Meteorological Office Percentage precipitation change 20 15 10 Percent 5 0 2030 -5 2050 2100 Annual June/July/August September/October/November December/Januay/Febuary March/April/May -10 Projected Temperature Increae °C 3 2.5 Degrees celcius 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2030 2050 2100 Annual June/July/August September/October/November December/Januay/Febuary March/April/May Source: URT 2003 Inter-Annual Short Rain Variability 400 350 300 Rainfall (mms) 250 200 150 100 50 0 November December Inter-Annual Long Rain Variability 1200 1000 Rainfall mms 800 600 400 200 0 March April May Source: Kilimanjaro Meteorological Office KEY QUESTION: HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT AGRICULTURAL SMALL HOLDERS ON KILIMANJARO? • What is vulnerability?  What is a bad year?  What is more important; climate change or climate variability? • What are the pressures?  Climate Change  Changing commodity prices  Government policy • What are the coping mechanism?  Can agricultural intensification decrease vulnerability?  Can agricultural extensification decrease vulnerability?  What is the role of off-farm income? WHAT IS VULNERABILITY? The extent to which a natural or social system is susceptible to sustaining damage from climate change, and is a function of the magnitude of climate change, the sensitivity of the system to changes in climate and the ability to adapt the system to changes in climate What is a Bad Year? 60 50 Percent 40 30 20 Bad Year Predictors 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 10 0 Bad Harvest Insufficient Food for Family Low Crop Prices Other Delayed Reduced No Rain Extra Warmer Seasonal Seasonal Heavy & than Usual Rains Rainfall Prolonged Downpour Other Bad Year Food sources 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT; CLIMATE CHANGE OR VARIABILITY? • Climate variability used as proxy for climate change • Therefore reducing vulnerability to climate variability is decreasing risk to climate change Exogenous Pressures Endogenous Pressures • Climate change/ Climate variability • Declining commodity prices • Government policy Population increase Deforestation Fire risk Subsistence food insecurity • Change of subsistence food crop • • • • Declining coffee price and production 3.50 40.0 3.00 35.0 30.0 2.50 25.0 2.00 20.0 1.50 15.0 1.00 10.0 0.50 5.0 0.00 0.0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Real Coffee Price Kilimanjaro region Killimanjaro as percentage of Tanzanian coffee production Real Coffee Price (Price recieved/USD exchange Rate) Projected Kilimanjaro Population 3500000 250 3000000 200 2500000 150 2000000 1500000 100 1000000 50 500000 0 1967 1978 1988 2002 0 2014 Population Population per square kilometre Population Per Square Kilometre Total Population LOCATION OF STUDY • • • • Tanzania Mt Kilimanjaro Kilimanjaro region Moshi rural and Rombo district ROMBO PROFILE 5,700 Height (feet) 5,200 4,700 4,200 3,700 4 3.75 3.5 3.25 3 3 2.75 2.5 2.25 2 Length (Miles) Rombo B: Homegardens with increase of maize plantations 2 1.75 1.5 1.25 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 Rombo Rombo A: Traditional banana-coffee homegardens Rombo C: Maize bean plantations increase. Crops smaller due to lack of water Location: 37°34E to 37°38E at 3’11S METHODOLOGY • • • • • • • • • 2 profiles from south to east on Kilimanjaro Built on Rufiji study Questionnaire modification Pilot survey Enumerator Training Enumerator monitoring Data entry checking system 1,016 Household surveys completed over 3 weeks (Map or diagram) KEY HYPOTHESES • Mark: How vulnerable are the Chagga to climate change? • Paul: How are capitals accumulated on Mt. Kilimanjaro • Zahra: What are the gender aspects of food security on Mt. Kilimanjaro? • Matt: What are the government responses to famine? OTHER DATA SOURCES • • • • • • • Secondary survey Key informant interviews Physical asset checklist Structured observation Transect walks Theoretical context setting secondary data Location specific secondary data ACCESS TO WATER SOURCES AS VULNERABILITY INDICATOR Rombo A 18% 48% 34% 39% 57% 45% 52% Rombo B 3% 1% Rombo C 3% Old Moshi 8% 1% 7% Marangu 2% 2% 25% Lower Moshi 30% 23% 25% 59% 71% 2% 45% LEVEL OF EDUCATION RELATED TO INFORMATION Source of information Agricultural Extension Officer Other Farmers Seed Suppliers Media Nowhere Total Level Of Education (Percentages) No Adult Primary Secondary College Schooling Education Education Education university Total 23 28 4 45 100 20 40 3 37 100 32 32 4 4 28 100 44 20 10 5 21 100 50 9 18 5 18 100 32.6 30.1 4.8 3.8 28.8 100 Differentiation of women’s coping mechanism by age Women’s coping mechanism Age (percentages) 18-37 38-57 57+ Total Petty Buisness Remittances Others Total 70 13 17 100 64 15 21 100 47 30 23 100 59 20 21 100 DIVISION OF LABOUR IN COFFEE PRODUCTION Coffee Harvester(s) Male Parent Female Parent Male & Female Parent Children Parents & Children Others Sex (percent) Male 9 19 42 2 25 1 Female 3 44 23 3 22 5 Total 7 29 35 3 24 3 Coffee Marketer (s) Sex (percent) Male Female Total 43 20 31 2 4 17 61 13 2 5 2 34 34 25 2 4 1 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 How many cattle owned? Number Frequency Percent 0 1 510 233 50.2 23.0 How many cattle loaned from others? Number Frequency Percent 0 1 881 84 86.8 8.3 How many chickens owned? Frequenc Number y Percent 0 1-4 261 286 25.7 28.2 2 3 4 5+ Total 174 57 28 13 1015 17.1 5.6 2.8 1.3 100.0 2 3 4 5+ Total 34 5 5 6 1015 3.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 100.0 5-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 237 156 46 12 9 23.3 15.4 4.5 1.2 0.9 50+ Total 8 1015 0.8 100.0 Total Income 2005 Money USD Percent Total Income 2006 Money USD Percent Median Mean Per day 133800 305523 837 112 255 0.7 Median Mean Per day 178000 370544 1015 37647320 4 16167852 5 53403000 50207600 28109200 24768600 148 309 0.8 Total Off-farm income Remittances Bananas Milk Livestock 310411786 146569750 45641650 40377900 15106250 22457500 258676 122141 38035 33648 12589 18715 100 47.2 14.7 13 4.9 7.2 Total Off-farm income Remittances Bananas Milk Livestock 313728 134732 44503 41840 23424 20641 100 42.9 14.2 13.3 7.5 6.6 Coffee Maize Fruits Wood Other farm Beans 16822300 12268536 3634350 2567500 1670900 1550000 14019 10224 3029 2140 1392 1292 5.4 4 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 Coffee Maize Fruits Beans Wood Millet 22500800 20040510 4692699 3661950 3476000 1280600 18751 16700 3911 3052 2897 1067 6 5.3 1.2 1 0.9 0.4 Distribution of income 800000 700000 600000 500000 TSH 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Percentiles Are you aware of climate change? Yes No Missing 953 39 24 94 4 2 What are the Impacts of climate change? Frequency Percent Shorter Rain Seasons & Insufficient Rainfall Insufficient Rainfall Shorter Rain Seasons Shorter Rain Seasons & Flood/Drought INcreases Flood/Drought Increases Insufficient Rainfall & Flood/Drought Increases 403 237 164 95 53 34 40 23 16 9 5 3 Others 8 3 CAN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSIFICATION DECREASE VULNERABILITY? Forest limits – national park Bush Savannah no longer exists Large scale farming constraints Maize-bean shambas on lowlands due to availability of water • Finger Millet – Cow peas extreme drought adaptation, illustrates the limits of cultivation without irrigation • Population increase and landuse planning/ownership limit extensification opportunities • • • • CAN AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION DECREASE VULNERABILITY? • Intensifying by cash cropping or diversifying subsistence food production • Is coffee rehabilitation possible? WHAT IS THE ROLE OF OFF-FARM INCOME? • Options of movement -Local -Regional -National • Importance of transport • Importance of education What is the meaning of this case study? •Adaptation is evolution •Coping mechanisms suggest involution •The need for post Kyoto to be adaptation focused •The need for pre-disaster planning