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ABC Co benefits of Integrated Approach to Air Quality

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					    Co-benefits of Integrated Approach
  to Air Quality Management and Climate
             Change Mitigation
  Role of Integrated Assessment Methods in SEA


Dr. Vladislav Bizek
Senior Consultant – Strategic Studies

Technology Center of the Czech Academy of Sciences
Rozvojová 135, 165 02 Praha 6, Czech Republic
e-mail: bizek@tc.cz; vladislav.bizek@gmail.com
Background-Introduction

    Climate Change – major environmental problem
    worldwide
    GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases
    Air Pollution – serious environmental problem in
    majority of countries:
    -Health impact (PM, ozone = VOC + NOX)
    -Ecosystem impact (ozone)
    -Acidification (SO2, NOX, NH3)
    -Eutrophication (NOX , NH3)
    Separate Treatment in Environmental Policies
Czech Republic – Air Pollution – example
  PM exceedance 2007
Czech Republic – GHGs - example
    Per capita 2006 emissions of CO2
       Lucem burs ko
            Aus trálie*
                   USA
             Kanada*
                  Irs ko
               Fins ko
     Čes ká republika
            Es tons ko
                Belgie
              Dáns ko
                   Kypr
         Nizozem s ko
            Něm ecko
                Řecko
              Nors ko
           Rakous ko
               Pols ko
    Spojené královs tví
                EU15
                EU27
            Slovins ko
                EU12
          Japons ko*
          Španěls ko
                  Itálie
           Bulhars ko
           Slovens ko
              Francie
           Maďars ko
         Portugals ko
                 Malta
          Rum uns ko
             Švéds ko
           Švýcars ko
                   Litva
             Lotyš s ko

                           0   5   10        15            20   25   30
                                        t CO2ekv ./obyv.
Background – Physico-chemical Interactions

Ozone – greenhouse gas (warming), direct effect on
human health and ecosystems, indirect effect on the
uptake of CO2 by vegetation,
Methane – greenhouse gas and precursor of ozone,
Black Carbon – human health effects and positive
radiative forcing (warming),
Sulphur dioxide – acidification, precursor of secondary
PM, negative radiative forcing (cooling),
Total aerosols – negative radiative forcing (coolling) and
health effects, ….
Very complex processes – many uncertainties
GHGs and Air Pollutants - Radiative forcing
                     Comparison
Background – driving forces

 Emissions of GHGs: energy (combustion of fossil fuels),
 transport (combustion of fossil fuels), agriculture
 Emissions of air pollutants : energy (combustion of any
 fuel), transport (combustion of any fuel), agriculture,
 industry (solvent use)
 High overlap of driving forces…
 Integrated approach is reasonable
Background – Policy response

 -win-win solutions: synergies (energy savings,
 energy efficiency, certain renewables, ….)
 -win-lose solutions: trade offs (lack of
 coordination of measures, switch from petrol
 vehicles to diesel, inpropper combustion of
 biomass, …)
 Integrated assessment of policies is crucial !
Background - Conclusion


    -strong and complex interaction among air
    pollutants and greenhouse gases
    -high overlap of diriving forces (sources of
    emissions)
    -two types of policy response (synergies
    versus trade-offs)
    -crucial role of integrated assessment
Integrated assessment - Introduction


   Two major initiatives:
  -Integrated Assessment Models (IIASA under
  the support of the European Commission)
  -Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES)
  Program (US EPA)
  -Co-benefit/Co-control Approach (China)
Integrated model: EC4MACS / GAINS

  EC4MACS – European Consortium for
  Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate
  Strategies (http://www.ec4macs.eu)

  GAINS – the Greenhouse Gas and Air
  Pollution Interactions and Synergies
  (http://www.iiasa.ac.at)
EC4MACS – Structure of the Integrated Model
Model GAINS – Description in DPSIR Format


Driving forces (energy, transport, industry, agriculture)
Pressure (emissions – PM, SO2, NOX, VOC, NH3, CO2,
  CH4, N2O, F-gases)
State (dispersion of primary pollutants, creation of
  secondary pollutants)
Impact (health impact of PM and ozone, acidification,
  eutrophication)
Response (cost optimization, scenario assessment)
Model GAINS – example 1 – loss in life expectancy
due to PM (months) 2000–2020 (optimized scenario)
Model GAINS – Example 2

    Macedonia – Emissions 2020
    (scenario E+C Package, current legislation)

       CO2      CH4       PM10      SO2      NOX


       Mt        kt        kt        kt       kt


      11.47     74.96    14.80     72.07     43.48
Model GAINS – Example 3
Model GAINS – Example 4
Model GAINS – Example 5
Model GAINS - Application


Covers all Europe - Minimal scope – country level
In Southern Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Bulgaria,
   Croatia, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia
Calculates (for pre-defined scenarios):
- Emissions: PM (TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 , SO2, NOX, VOC, NH3,
   CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases, total GHGs
- Impacts (life expectancy, damage to vegetation, eutrophication,
   acidification)
- Costs (total for scenario, per pollutants)
Model GAINS – how to use it?

 Website: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/index.htm
 Free registration possible to become „viewer“,
 then:
 -Select country
 -Select scenario
 -Calculate (emissions, impacts, costs)
 Downloads only available (special rights
 necessary for uploads)
Integrated Assessment Tools at Local Level

  Model CAPS-Clean Air and Climate Protection Software
  Enables:
  - Calculation of emission inventories and emission
  projections of air pollutants and GHGs
  -Assessment of efficiency of measures
  -Development of strategies and action plans
  Information at: http:// www.4cleanair.org
Thanks for your attention !

				
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posted:9/15/2011
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