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Co-benefits of Integrated Approach to Air Quality Management and Climate Change Mitigation Role of Integrated Assessment Methods in SEA Dr. Vladislav Bizek Senior Consultant – Strategic Studies Technology Center of the Czech Academy of Sciences Rozvojová 135, 165 02 Praha 6, Czech Republic e-mail: email@example.com; firstname.lastname@example.org Background-Introduction Climate Change – major environmental problem worldwide GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases Air Pollution – serious environmental problem in majority of countries: -Health impact (PM, ozone = VOC + NOX) -Ecosystem impact (ozone) -Acidification (SO2, NOX, NH3) -Eutrophication (NOX , NH3) Separate Treatment in Environmental Policies Czech Republic – Air Pollution – example PM exceedance 2007 Czech Republic – GHGs - example Per capita 2006 emissions of CO2 Lucem burs ko Aus trálie* USA Kanada* Irs ko Fins ko Čes ká republika Es tons ko Belgie Dáns ko Kypr Nizozem s ko Něm ecko Řecko Nors ko Rakous ko Pols ko Spojené královs tví EU15 EU27 Slovins ko EU12 Japons ko* Španěls ko Itálie Bulhars ko Slovens ko Francie Maďars ko Portugals ko Malta Rum uns ko Švéds ko Švýcars ko Litva Lotyš s ko 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 t CO2ekv ./obyv. Background – Physico-chemical Interactions Ozone – greenhouse gas (warming), direct effect on human health and ecosystems, indirect effect on the uptake of CO2 by vegetation, Methane – greenhouse gas and precursor of ozone, Black Carbon – human health effects and positive radiative forcing (warming), Sulphur dioxide – acidification, precursor of secondary PM, negative radiative forcing (cooling), Total aerosols – negative radiative forcing (coolling) and health effects, …. Very complex processes – many uncertainties GHGs and Air Pollutants - Radiative forcing Comparison Background – driving forces Emissions of GHGs: energy (combustion of fossil fuels), transport (combustion of fossil fuels), agriculture Emissions of air pollutants : energy (combustion of any fuel), transport (combustion of any fuel), agriculture, industry (solvent use) High overlap of driving forces… Integrated approach is reasonable Background – Policy response -win-win solutions: synergies (energy savings, energy efficiency, certain renewables, ….) -win-lose solutions: trade offs (lack of coordination of measures, switch from petrol vehicles to diesel, inpropper combustion of biomass, …) Integrated assessment of policies is crucial ! Background - Conclusion -strong and complex interaction among air pollutants and greenhouse gases -high overlap of diriving forces (sources of emissions) -two types of policy response (synergies versus trade-offs) -crucial role of integrated assessment Integrated assessment - Introduction Two major initiatives: -Integrated Assessment Models (IIASA under the support of the European Commission) -Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) Program (US EPA) -Co-benefit/Co-control Approach (China) Integrated model: EC4MACS / GAINS EC4MACS – European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies (http://www.ec4macs.eu) GAINS – the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (http://www.iiasa.ac.at) EC4MACS – Structure of the Integrated Model Model GAINS – Description in DPSIR Format Driving forces (energy, transport, industry, agriculture) Pressure (emissions – PM, SO2, NOX, VOC, NH3, CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases) State (dispersion of primary pollutants, creation of secondary pollutants) Impact (health impact of PM and ozone, acidification, eutrophication) Response (cost optimization, scenario assessment) Model GAINS – example 1 – loss in life expectancy due to PM (months) 2000–2020 (optimized scenario) Model GAINS – Example 2 Macedonia – Emissions 2020 (scenario E+C Package, current legislation) CO2 CH4 PM10 SO2 NOX Mt kt kt kt kt 11.47 74.96 14.80 72.07 43.48 Model GAINS – Example 3 Model GAINS – Example 4 Model GAINS – Example 5 Model GAINS - Application Covers all Europe - Minimal scope – country level In Southern Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia Calculates (for pre-defined scenarios): - Emissions: PM (TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 , SO2, NOX, VOC, NH3, CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases, total GHGs - Impacts (life expectancy, damage to vegetation, eutrophication, acidification) - Costs (total for scenario, per pollutants) Model GAINS – how to use it? Website: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/index.htm Free registration possible to become „viewer“, then: -Select country -Select scenario -Calculate (emissions, impacts, costs) Downloads only available (special rights necessary for uploads) Integrated Assessment Tools at Local Level Model CAPS-Clean Air and Climate Protection Software Enables: - Calculation of emission inventories and emission projections of air pollutants and GHGs -Assessment of efficiency of measures -Development of strategies and action plans Information at: http:// www.4cleanair.org Thanks for your attention !
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