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					                                             REAL-TIME GDP ESTIMATES
ESTIMATE FOR 2008.Q3                                                                                                                            OCTOBER 3, 2008



                         Underlying growth measure: RTFU = 1.42%

                        Quarterly variation measure: RTFQ = -0.02%

                                             REAL-TIME MEASURES OF GDP GROWTH
                                      ACTUAL, AND CURRENT VINTAGE RTF-U AND EX POST RTF-Q

                        8

                        7

                        6

                        5

                        4

                        3
                                                                                                                                  2008.Q3
                        2
                                                                                                                                   1.42
                        1

                        0                                                                                                          -0.02
                            1999    2000       2001       2002      2003       2004      2005       2006       2007        2008
                       -1
                                                                          ACTUAL                RTF-U               RTF-Q
                       -2
                             RTFU is measure of "Underlying" growth; RTFQ accounts for quarterly variation and other effects.




         Estimate for 2008.Q3                                                                                                               October 3, 2008

                                              Real-Time Forecast Results for Current Quarter GDP Growth
         Indicator                                     Prediction          R-Squared          Specification       Sample            MAE       Contribution
                                                          (%)                                                                                   (%pts)

         NFIB Good Time                                    4.12               0.167                  2                33            1.662         0.125
         Real Exports                                      3.42               0.424                  5                50            1.187         0.264
         Philadelphia Fed Index                            3.06               0.112                  1                30            1.392         0.062
         Shipments, Durables                               2.27               0.281                  1                74            1.223         0.116
         ISM Non-Mfg. Index                                2.20               0.267                  1                33            1.464         0.107
         Payroll jobs                                      1.94               0.152                  6                33            1.723         0.054
         Unemployment Rate                                 1.69               0.279                  5                33            1.585         0.086
         ISM Purchasing Mgrs. Index                        1.65               0.221                  5                33            1.475         0.066
         Durable Goods Orders                              1.59               0.260                  3                33            1.214         0.075
         Work Week                                         1.55               0.186                  1                33            1.545         0.052
         Housing Starts                                    1.53               0.176                  6                73            1.220         0.049
         S&P 500 Index                                     1.48               0.307                  6                32            1.647         0.083
         Payroll Jobs Diffusion                            1.21               0.245                  2                33            1.538         0.054
         Industrial Production                             1.18               0.381                  2                74            1.427         0.082
         Real Residential Construction                     1.15               0.142                  2                36            1.504         0.030
         Aggregate Worker Hours                            1.09               0.258                  6                37            1.413         0.051
         Consumer Sentiment                                0.98               0.082                  4                35            1.801         0.015
         Consumer Confidence                               0.95               0.245                  6                33            1.543         0.043
         Continuing UI Claims                              0.82               0.231                  2                33            1.581         0.035
         NAHB HMI                                          0.64               0.181                  5                80            1.436         0.021
         Real Nonresidential Construction                  0.45               0.150                  5                31            1.498         0.012
         Real Retail Sales                                -0.15               0.251                  3                31            1.413        -0.007
         Real Consumption Expenditures                    -0.20               0.244                  6                45            1.566        -0.009
         Unemp. Ins. Claims                               -0.91               0.253                  1                33            1.624        -0.042



         R-Squared Weighted Forecast (RTF-U)                                                                                                      1.42
         Median Forecast                                                                                                                          1.34
         Specification: 1 = current first difference; 2 = current % change; 3 = current and lagged differences; 4 = lagged % change;
                          5 = current level and first difference; 6 = current and lagged % change.

				
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