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					 EU Enlargement

Situation: November 2001
What states are knocking on the EU door
                    •   Estonia
                    •   Lithuania
                    •   Latvia
                    •   Poland
                    •   Slovakia
                    •   Czech Republic
                    •   Slovenia
                    •   Hungary
                    •   Romania
                    •   Bulgaria
                    •   Turkey
                    •   Malta
                    •   Cyprus
               ‘state-of-play’
• France's foreign minister, Hubert Vedrine:
  suggestion - EU might consider simultaneously
  bringing into the EU all the twelve candidates
  currently negotiating their accession – Big bang!
• Hungary’s PM, Orban: the entire EU enlargement
  exercise could be put at risk if too many
  candidates with different levels of readiness joined
  the EU at the same time.
   The Copenhagen Criteria (1)
• States must prove their respect for
  democratic principles, the rule of law,
  human rights and the protection of
  minorities
   The Copenhagen Criteria(2)
• States must have functioning market
  economies able to cope with the
  competitive pressures and market forces of
  the EU
  – Agriculture: Enlargement will double the EU's
    agricultural workforce and increase by 50% the
    EU's arable land area.
    The Copenhagen Criteria (3)
• States must be able to take on all the obligations of
  membership, including incorporating into their national
  legal system all the laws agreed by the EU

   – sheer technical slog of converting some 80,000 pages of EU law into
     domestic legislation is enormous – and states must try to ‘enact’ these
     laws
   – Most controversial of all: EU environmental regulations and labour
     standards for health and safety.
       • Says the EIU's Barysch: "Small companies that are left over from central
         planning and are operating fairly efficiently now would be put out of business
         by the introduction of full labour standards. Strict environmental standards
         would cause sectors such as steel and chemicals to lose competitiveness."
   The ‘acquis’: EU regulations
• Fear: the EU's heavy-handed bureaucracy
  and its onerous regulations could stifle the
  entrepreneurial spirit that has been
  unleashed in their countries since the fall of
  communism.
A viewpoint from the ‘Economist’
        The issues for the EU
• The EU budget: 96 billion euro
  – CAP and Structural Funds take 80%
  – How do the applicant states fit into this scenario
• Free movement of labour - thorny issue
         Applicant states: their view
•   EU money:
     – promise of EU membership bringing in additional billions in direct and portfolio
       investment that is transforming countries such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech
       Republic.
     – a conservative estimates that it will be running at 10 billion euro a year, or, 2 – 3 %
       of GDP
•   Public Support:
     – Poland's accession to the EU has fallen to 49.6 percent from nearly 62 percent last
       year, according to a recent poll carried out for Taylor Nelsen Sofres by the Czech
       institute Factum.
     – The share of those supporting EU enlargement fell from 62.9 to 55.7 percent from
       last year
          • The poll, based on a 12,042 sample in 11 Central and Eastern European countries, showed
            support to be the strongest in Slovenia, Bulgaria and Slovakia, and the weakest in Estonia.
            The share of those supporting EU enlargement fell from 62.9 to 55.7 percent from last
            year. mwjb 8 November issue of Gazeta Wyborcza p. 20
     –
 Commission view: November 2001

• Prodi: full EU members in time for
  European Parliament elections due in June
  2004.
  – good news for Poland, Hungary, the Czech
    Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Baltic states
    of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and the
    Mediterranean islands of Cyprus and Malta.
      Applicant states: problems

•   Corruption
•   Fraud
•   Trafficking ( women, drugs, )
•   Protection ( minorities)
      Challenges and problems
• The big problem in bringing eastern
  European countries into the EU is: the
  desire for harmonization is taking
  precedence over the need for flexibility.
  – The EU insists the applicants adopt the acquis
    wholesale,
  – the new entrants desire to be a part of every EU
    programme going, regardless of its merits.
How the east Europeans shape up
            Database
                              Germany
• Germany: challenges:
    – In the east, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Brandenburg, and Saxony--the
      Lander bordering Poland--support for enlargement is extremely low. Only
      one out of three residents in the region is in favor of the move
    – Wages in Poland are as much as six times lower than in Germany
         • Germany and Austria pressed for an elective seven-year ban on the movement
           of labor from new EU member states.
    – free competition in the service sector could have grave implications for
      eastern Germany's already battered construction industry.
• Germany : the opportunities:
    – Germany's trade with Eastern and Central Europe accounts for about 10
      percent of its total foreign trade, falling just $1 billion short of trade with
      NAFTA counties.
                                                   Estonia
                                                                • from Soviet annex to
Area:            45,227 square km


Population:      1,439,197 (January 2000), only 31.8 per
                       square km
                                                                  Nordic tiger
Capital city:    Tallinn (population 408,329 or 28% of total
                        population)                               economy
Currency:        kroon (EEK). Fixed exchange rate: 8 EEK = 1
                       DEM; 1 euro = 15.65 EEK

Taxsystem:       26% flat income tax, 18% VAT. Reinvested
                       corporate profit is tax free

Language:        Estonian


Head of State:   President, elected for 5 years. Current
                       President: Mr. Lennart Meri. Next
                       election: September 2001
Parliament:      The Riigikogu. A unicameral parliament of
                      101                         members.
                      Term: 4 years. The last elections were
                      held in March 1999
Administrative   15 counties, 205 rural municipalities and 42
    division:          towns
                                             Latvia
Full name: Republic of Latvia
Founded on:November 18, 1918
Population: 2.37 million
Area: 64 589 sq. km
Total length of national border: 1 800 km
Borders with other countries:
Estonia, Russia, Belarus, Lithuania
Capital city: Riga (population: around 800,000)
Currency:lats (LVL). One lats consists of 100
     santims. The lats has been the currency since
     May 1993
Official language: Latvian
Head of State: President, who is elected by the
     Saeima for a period of 4 years. The President
     promulgates laws, appoints the Prime Minister
     and performs representative functions. The
     current presiden, Ms Vaira Vike-Freiberga, was
     elected in July 1999.
Type of government:
Democratic, parliamentary republic. Legislative power
     is in the hands of a single-chamber parliament –
     the Saeima, composed of 100 deputies.
     Parliamentary elections take place every 4
     years. The last parliamentary elections took
     place in the autumn of 1998.
Application for EU accession:
27 October 1995
Lithuania
     •   Area: 65,300 square km
         Population:3.7 million
         80 percent of the population is
         Lithuanian, 11 percent are Polish and 7
         percent are Russians.
     •   Dominant religion: Roman Catholic
     •   Capital city:Vilnius
     •   Currency: Litas (1 litas=0.25USD)
     •   Official language: Lithuanian
         (lietuviu)
     •   Political system: Republic. New
         constitution ratified in October 1992.
         The country is governed by the
         President, supreme legislative body
         Seimas (a unicameral Parliament of 141
         members) and the Government
     •   Application for EU accession: 8
         December 1995. Accession negotiations
         started in February 2000
Slovenia
    •   Country profile
    •   Population: Just under two million inhabitants
    •   Capital city: Ljubljana
    •   Currency:Slovenian tolar - SIT

    •   GDP per capita:
    •   16.100 PPS (2000 data), which equals 71% of EU
        average. Slovenia is one of the most prosperous
        candidate countries for EU membership. The GDP of
        Slovenia is above Greece and close to that of Portugal.

    •   Official language: Slovene (slovenščina)

    •   Head of State:
    •   The President of the Republic represents Slovenia and is
        the commander-in-chief of the armed forces
    •   Legislative bodies:
    •   The Republic of Slovenia is a Parliamentary democracy
        with the National Assembly (90 MPs) and the National
        Council (40 counsellors). The government, composed of
        Prime Minister and the cabinet, is the executive branch
              Slovenia (2)
• GDP per capita is very close to Portugal's
  and approaching double that of the next
  wealthiest east European applicant, the
  Czech Republic.
                  Hungary
Country profile
   Czech Republic
                  •   Area78,866km2
                  •   Population10.3 million
                  •   Neighbours (border in km)Germany (646),
Country profile
                      Poland (658), Slovakia (215), Austria
                      (362)mm
                  •   Density131 inhabitants per km2mm
                  •   Distribution66% urban population, 34%
                      rural populationmm
                  •   Ethnic profileCzech (94%), Slovak (3%),
                      Polish (0.6%), German (0.5%), Roma (0.3%),
                      Hungarian (0.2%), Others (1%)
                  •   LanguageCzechReligionAtheist (39.8%),
                      Roman Catholic (39.2%), Protestant (4.6%),
                      Orthodox (3%), Other (13.4%)
                  •   ife expectancyAverage: 74.1 - 70.8 years
                      (male), 77.7 (female)
                  •   GDP/capita12,498 ECU (PPS) in 1999 (PPS)
                      (Eurostat)
                      59% of EU-15 average (1999)
                  •   Currency1 Crown or CZK = 100 halire - 1
                      crown = c.37 EURO (January 2001)
                  •   General Government budget2000 Budget:
                      c. EURO 32 billion
                  •   Government deficit9,5% of GDP (2001
                      forecast)Public debt35% if GDO (estimate
                      2001)Trade with EUSurplus: 0.1
        Hungary

Population10 millionArea93,036 km²Density107.8 inhabitants per km²
Distribution63.7% urban population, 36.3% rural population
NeighboursAustria (356 km border), Slovakia (679), Ukraine (137), Romania (453), Fr Yugoslavia
(164), Croatia (355), Slovenia (102)
Ethnic profileHungarian (96,6%) – 13 officially recognised and registered minorities: German,
Gypsies, Croats, Slovaks, Romanians, Bulgarians, Greeks, Polish, Armenian, Ruthens, Serbs,
Ukrainian – especially protected by Constitution as a component of the Hungarian state; right of
representation in Parliament enshrined in the Constitution and the 1993 Minority Act
LanguageHungarian
ReligionRoman Catholic (65%), Reformed (20%), Lutherans (4%), Orthodox (2.7%), Jewish (1%)
Life expectancyAverage: 71.35 years, 67.1 years (male), 75.6 years (female).
GDP p.c. in 2000In Purchasing Power Standard: 11,700 Euro
(app. 52% of EU average)
Real GDP growth: 5.2%
Inflation rate10.0 % annual average in 2000
Unemployment rateEnd-year 2000: 6.4% (ILO definition)Currency1 Forint or HUF = 100 Fillér
1 Euro = HUF 260; HUF 1.000 = Euro 3.8General gov. budget balance2000 Budget Deficit: 3.7% of
GDPCurrent account balanceIn 2000: -1,620 million Euro = 3,1% of GDP
Foreign debtGross foreign debt: 25,562 million Euro
Debt export ratio: 82.5%Trade with EU in 2000Exports to the EU: 75,1 as % of the total
Imports from the EU: 58,4 as % of the total
Slovakia
                                Poland
Area: 312,685 square km
Population: 38,654 million inhabitants,
    of which 98% are ethnic Poles
Official language: Polish
Constitution:
New Democratic Constitution passed in
    1997
Administrative division:
1999: 16 provinces (wojewodztwo), 308
    counties (powiat) and 2.489
    communes (gmina)
Application for EU accession:
Submitted to the European Commission
    in 1994
                Romania


  Country profile
(Under construction)
Turkey
   • Turkey still does not
     meet the Copenhagen
     political criteria.
      – Turkey’s national
        programme for the
        adoption of the acquis
        set the scene for a
        major constitutional
        reform package,
Malta
Cyprus
Bulgaria
    •   Country profile
    •   Area:
    •   110,993 sq. km
    •   Population:
    •   approximately 8 million citizens
    •   Capital city:
    •   Sofia
    •   Borders:
    •   To the north with Romania and
        the Danube river, to the east is
        the Black Sea, to the south are
        Turkey and Greece, and to the
        west - the FYR of Macedonia
        and Yugoslavia.
    •   Form of State:
    •   Parliamentary republic
 December 2001 – Enl. schedule
• DecemberSunday 2nd to Thursday 6thBelgian deputy
  foreign affairs minister Annemie Neyts visits Cyprus,
  Turkey, the Czech Republic and Hungary on her pre-
  Laeken tour of the candidate countries
• Monday 3rdEuropean External Relations Commissioner
  Chris Patten visits Romania
• Monday 3rd, Tuesday 4thEU-Czech joint parliamentary
  committee meets, Brussels
• Tuesday 4th, Wednesday 5thCommission Director-General
  for Enlargement Eneko Landaburu visits Latvia
• Thursday 6th-Friday 7thEuropean Employment and Social
  Affairs Commissioner
Economist, Nov. 22 2003

				
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posted:9/14/2011
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