Docstoc

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Document Sample
Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level Powered By Docstoc
					Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community
                                       Level



                                  Final Report




                              Energy Community
                                    26 April 2011
Contents
1.          Executive Summary .......................................................................... 1
2.          Introduction ....................................................................................... 4
3.          Methodologies ................................................................................... 5
     3.1. Methodology for Energy Demand Forecasting .................................. 5
     3.2. Stock Holding Obligation Calculation Methodology ........................... 8
     3.3. Data Reporting Requirements ......................................................... 10
     3.4. Data Collection and Processing....................................................... 10
     3.5. Facilities Capital and Operating Cost Estimation ............................. 14
     3.6. Forward Crude Oil & Product Pricing ............................................... 15
     3.7. Obligation Calculation Model Construction ...................................... 19
4.          The Role of the Central Stockholding Agency ................................. 20
     4.1. CSE Formation and Constitution ..................................................... 20
       4.1.1.    Hungary .................................................................................... 20
       4.1.2.    Czech Republic ........................................................................ 22
     4.2. CSE Operation ................................................................................ 23
     4.3. CSE Financing ................................................................................. 24
5.          Albania ............................................................................................ 25
     5.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand .............................. 25
     5.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligations .................................................... 29
     5.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ................................................................. 32
     5.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ........................................... 35
     5.5. Additional required stockholding capacities ..................................... 36
     5.6. Legal Review ................................................................................... 36
     5.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ....................................................... 37
     5.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ....................... 39
     5.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ........................................ 40
     5.10. Required Legislative Changes ......................................................... 40
     5.11. Road Map ........................................................................................ 41
6.          Bosnia and Herzegovina ................................................................. 44
     6.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand .............................. 44
     6.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation ...................................................... 47
     6.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ................................................................. 49
     6.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ........................................... 52
     6.5. Additional required stockholding capacities ..................................... 52
     6.6. Legal Review ................................................................................... 52
     6.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ....................................................... 53
     6.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ....................... 55
     6.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ........................................ 55
     6.10. Required Legislative Changes ......................................................... 55
     6.11. Road Map ........................................................................................ 56
7.          Croatia ............................................................................................ 58
     7.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand .............................. 58
     7.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation ...................................................... 62
     7.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ................................................................. 64


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                  i
26 April 2011
   7.4.   Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ........................................... 68
   7.5.   Additional Required Stockholding Capacities .................................. 68
   7.6.   Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ....................................................... 69
   7.7.   Legal Review ................................................................................... 69
   7.8.   Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ....................... 70
   7.9.   Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ........................................ 71
   7.10.  Required Legislative Changes ......................................................... 72
   7.11.  Road Map ........................................................................................ 72
8.        FYR Macedonia .............................................................................. 74
   8.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand .............................. 74
   8.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation ...................................................... 77
   8.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ................................................................. 80
   8.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ........................................... 83
   8.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities .................................. 84
   8.6. Legal Review ................................................................................... 85
   8.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ....................................................... 86
   8.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ....................... 88
   8.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ........................................ 89
   8.10. Required Legislative Changes ......................................................... 90
   8.11. Road Map ........................................................................................ 90
9.        Moldova .......................................................................................... 93
   9.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand .............................. 93
   9.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation ...................................................... 95
   9.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ................................................................. 98
   9.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ........................................... 99
   9.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities .................................. 99
   9.6. Legal Review ................................................................................... 99
   9.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ....................................................... 99
   9.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 101
   9.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 101
   9.10. Required Legislative Changes ....................................................... 101
   9.11. Road Map ...................................................................................... 101
10.       Montenegro ................................................................................... 103
   10.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand ............................ 103
   10.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation .................................................... 105
   10.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ............................................................... 107
   10.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ......................................... 108
   10.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities ................................ 108
   10.6. Legal Review ................................................................................. 109
   10.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ..................................................... 109
   10.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 111
   10.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 112
   10.10. Required Legislative Changes ....................................................... 112
   10.11. Road Map ...................................................................................... 112
11.       Serbia............................................................................................ 114
   11.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand ............................ 114

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                              ii
26 April 2011
  11.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation .................................................... 118
  11.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ............................................................... 120
  11.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ......................................... 123
  11.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities ................................ 123
  11.6. Legal Review ................................................................................. 124
  11.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ..................................................... 124
  11.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 126
  11.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 126
  11.10. Required Legislative Changes ....................................................... 127
  11.11. Road Map ...................................................................................... 127
12.      UNMIK .......................................................................................... 129
  12.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand ............................ 129
  12.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation .................................................... 130
  12.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ............................................................... 133
  12.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ......................................... 135
  12.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities ................................ 135
  12.6. Legal Review ................................................................................. 135
  12.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ..................................................... 135
  12.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 137
  12.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 137
  12.10. Required Legislative Changes ....................................................... 137
  12.11. Road Map ...................................................................................... 138
13.      Georgia ......................................................................................... 140
  13.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand ............................ 141
  13.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligations .................................................. 143
  13.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ............................................................... 145
  13.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ......................................... 147
  13.5. Additional Required Stock Holding Capacities............................... 147
  13.6. Legal Review ................................................................................. 147
  13.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ..................................................... 147
  13.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 148
  13.9. Intervention is Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 148
  13.10. Required Legal Changes ............................................................... 148
  13.11. Road Map ...................................................................................... 149
14.      Turkey ........................................................................................... 151
  14.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand ............................ 152
  14.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation .................................................... 154
  14.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ............................................................... 156
  14.4. Emergency Stock Holding Current Situation.................................. 159
  14.5. Additional Required Stock Holding Capacity ................................. 159
  14.6. Legal Review ................................................................................. 159
  14.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ..................................................... 160
  14.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 160
  14.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 160
  14.10. Road Map ...................................................................................... 161
15.      Ukraine .......................................................................................... 163

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                             iii
26 April 2011
  15.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand ............................ 163
  15.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation .................................................... 166
  15.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ............................................................... 167
  15.4. Emergency Stock Holding Situation .............................................. 169
  15.5. Additional Capacity Requirements ................................................. 169
  15.6. Legal Review ................................................................................. 169
  15.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ..................................................... 169
  15.8. Organisational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 170
  15.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 170
  15.10. Required Legislative Changes ....................................................... 170
  15.11. Road Map ...................................................................................... 170
16.      Regional Approach........................................................................ 172
  16.1. Introduction .................................................................................... 172
  16.2. Regulation ..................................................................................... 172
  16.3. Infrastructure ................................................................................. 173
  16.4. Examples of regional approaches ................................................. 174
  16.5. Economic Rationale for a Regional Approach ............................... 178
  16.6. Recommendations ......................................................................... 179
  16.7. Community Road Map ................................................................... 179
17.      General Conclusions and Recommendations ............................... 182
18.      Appendix 1 - Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand (Data
Tables) 184
  18.1. Albania........................................................................................... 184
  18.2. BiH ................................................................................................. 186
  18.3. Croatia ........................................................................................... 188
  18.4. FYR Macedonia ............................................................................. 191
  18.5. Moldova ......................................................................................... 193
  18.6. Montenegro ................................................................................... 195
  18.7. Serbia ............................................................................................ 196
  18.8. UNMIK ........................................................................................... 199
  18.9. Georgia .......................................................................................... 200
  18.10. Turkey............................................................................................ 201
19.      Appendix 2 - Economic Forecasting Assumptions ........................ 204




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                              iv
26 April 2011
Figures
Figure 1 Planning Process Interaction ............................................................. 5
Figure 2 MAED Model Main Inputs and Outputs .............................................. 8
Figure 3 Refiners Data Collection Sheet ........................................................ 12
Figure 4 Importers Data Collection Form ....................................................... 13
Figure 5 Product/Crude Price Ratios ............................................................. 17
Figure 6 Crude Oil Production, Albania, 2007-2020....................................... 26
Figure 7 Crude Oil Import and Export, Albania, 2007-2020 ........................... 26
Figure 8 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020 ............ 27
Figure 9 Petroleum Product Imports, Albania, 2007-2020 ............................. 27
Figure 10 Petroleum Product Exports, Albania, 2007-2020 ........................... 28
Figure 11 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020
    ................................................................................................................ 28
Figure 12 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Albania, 2007-2020 ................... 29
Figure 13 Oil Infrastructure, Albania .............................................................. 32
Figure 14 Wholesale Companies Obliged to Hold Emergency Oil Stocks,
    Albania 2001-2009.................................................................................. 35
Figure 15 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Albania,
    2012-2020............................................................................................... 39
Figure 16 Gantt Diagram for Road Map, Albania ........................................... 43
Figure 17 Crude Oil Imports, BiH, 2007-2020 ................................................ 44
Figure 18 Net Production of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020 ................ 45
Figure 19 Petroleum Product Imports, BiH, 2007-2020 ................................. 45
Figure 20 Petroleum Product Exports, BiH, 2007-2020 ................................. 46
Figure 21 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020... 46
Figure 22 Oil Product Supply and Demand, BiH, 2007-2020 ......................... 47
Figure 23 Oil Infrastructure, BiH..................................................................... 50
Figure 24 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in BiH, 2012-
    2020 ........................................................................................................ 55
Figure 25 Road Map Gantt Diagram, BiH ...................................................... 57
Figure 26 Oil and Condensate Production, Croatia, 2007-2020 .................... 58
Figure 27 Crude Oil Import, Croatia, 2007-2020 ............................................ 59
Figure 28 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020 .......... 59
Figure 29 Petroleum Product Imports, Croatia, 2007-2020............................ 60
Figure 30 Petroleum Product Exports, Croatia, 2007-2020 ........................... 60
Figure 31 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020
    ................................................................................................................ 61
Figure 32 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Croatia, 2007-2020 ................... 61
Figure 33 Oil Infrastructure, Croatia ............................................................... 64
Figure 34 HANDA Organisation Chart, Croatia .............................................. 71
Figure 35 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Croatia ................................................ 73
Figure 36 Crude Oil Import, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 .............................. 74
Figure 37 Net Production of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020
    ................................................................................................................ 75
Figure 38 Petroleum Product Imports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ............. 75


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                     v
26 April 2011
Figure 39 Petroleum Product Exports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ............. 76
Figure 40 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia,
    2007-2020............................................................................................... 76
Figure 41 Oil Product Supply and Demands, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ... 77
Figure 42 Oil Infrastructure, FYR Macedonia ................................................. 80
Figure 43 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in FYR
    Macedonia, 2012-2020 ........................................................................... 88
Figure 44 Organisation of Directorate for Compulsory Reserves of Oil and Oil
    Derivatives, FYR Macedonia .................................................................. 89
Figure 45 Road Map Gantt Diagram, FYR Macedonia .................................. 92
Figure 46 Crude Oil Production, Moldova, 2007-2020 ................................... 93
Figure 47 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-2020 ........ 93
Figure 48 Petroleum Product Imports, Moldova, 2007-2020 .......................... 94
Figure 49 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-
    2020 ........................................................................................................ 94
Figure 50 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Moldova, 2007-2020 ................. 95
Figure 51 Oil Infrastructure, Moldova ............................................................. 98
Figure 52 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Moldova,
    2012-2020............................................................................................. 101
Figure 53 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Moldova ............................................ 102
Figure 54 Petroleum Product Imports, Montenegro, 2007-2020 .................. 103
Figure 55 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Montenegro, 2007-
    2020 ...................................................................................................... 104
Figure 56 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Montenegro, 2007-2020 ......... 104
Figure 57 Oil Infrastructure, Montenegro ..................................................... 107
Figure 58 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Montenegro,
    2011-2020............................................................................................. 111
Figure 59 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Montenegro ....................................... 113
Figure 60 Oil and Condensate Production, Serbia, 2007-2020 .................... 114
Figure 61 Crude Oil Imports, Serbia, 2007-2020 ......................................... 115
Figure 62 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020 ......... 115
Figure 63 Petroleum Product Imports, Serbia, 2007-2020 ........................... 116
Figure 64 Petroleum Product Exports, Serbia, 2007-2020........................... 116
Figure 65 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 117
Figure 66 Oil Products Supply and Demand, Serbia, 2007-2020 ................ 117
Figure 67 Oil Infrastructure, Serbia .............................................................. 120
Figure 68 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Serbia, 2011-
    2020 ...................................................................................................... 126
Figure 69 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Serbia ................................................ 128
Figure 70 Petroleum Product Imports, UNMIK, 2007-2020.......................... 129
Figure 71 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, UNMIK, 2007-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 130
Figure 72 Oil Product Supply and Demand, UNMIK, 2007-2020 ................. 130
Figure 73 Oil Infrastructure .......................................................................... 133


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                   vi
26 April 2011
Figure 74 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in UNMIK,
    2011-2020............................................................................................. 137
Figure 75 Road Map Gantt Diagram, UNMIK .............................................. 139
Figure 76 Crude Oil Imports and Exports, Georgia, 2007-2020 ................... 141
Figure 77 Petroleum Product Imports, Georgia, 2007-2020 ........................ 142
Figure 78 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Georgia, 2007-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 142
Figure 79 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Georgia, 2007-2020 ................ 143
Figure 80 Oil Infrastructure .......................................................................... 146
Figure 81 Map of Georgia Pipelines............................................................. 147
Figure 82 Road Map Gantt Georgia ............................................................. 150
Figure 83 Crude Oil Supply, Turkey, 2008-2020 .......................................... 152
Figure 84 Petroleum Product Production, Turkey, 2008 - 2010 ................... 152
Figure 85 Petroleum Products Balance, Turkey, 2007-2020 ....................... 153
Figure 86 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Turkey, 2007-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 153
Figure 87 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Turkey, 2007-2020 .................. 154
Figure 88 Existing Infrastructure .................................................................. 156
Figure 89 Refineries..................................................................................... 159
Figure 90 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Turkey ............................................... 162
Figure 91 Crude Oil Supply, Ukraine, 2008-2020 ........................................ 163
Figure 92 Petroleum Product Production, Ukraine, 2008 - 2010 .................. 164
Figure 93 Petroleum Products Balance, Ukraine, 2007-2020 ...................... 164
Figure 94 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Ukraine, 2007-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 165
Figure 95 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Ukraine, 2007-2020 ................ 165
Figure 96 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Ukraine .............................................. 171
Figure 97 Energy Community Road Map ..................................................... 181




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                   vii
26 April 2011
Tables
Table 1 Summary of Compliance Status with Directive 2009/119/EC.............. 2
Table 2 Assumed Tankage Construction Costs ............................................. 14
Table 3 Storage Operating Cost Estimates .................................................... 14
Table 4 Assumed Product Prices ................................................................... 18
Table 5 HUSA Cash Flows ............................................................................ 22
Table 6 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Albania,
    2009-2020............................................................................................... 29
Table 7 90 Days Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Albania,
    2009-2020............................................................................................... 30
Table 8 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Albania, 2009-2020 ... 30
Table 9 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Albania, 2009-2020 30
Table 10 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Inland
    Consumption, Albania, 2010-2021.......................................................... 31
Table 11 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Albania, 2010-2021
    ................................................................................................................ 31
Table 12 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Albania, 2010-
    2021 ........................................................................................................ 31
Table 13 Crude Oil Pipelines, Albania ........................................................... 33
Table 14 Crude Oil and Intermediate Products Storage Capacities of ARMO,
    Albania .................................................................................................... 34
Table 15 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Albania ........................... 34
Table 16 Emergency Oil Stocks, Albania, 2010 ............................................. 35
Table 17 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage,
    Albania, 2010-2021 ................................................................................. 38
Table 18 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Oil Products Purchase,
    Albania, 2010-2020 ................................................................................. 38
Table 19 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, Albania, 2010-2020 .................. 38
Table 20 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Albania, 2010-2020 .................... 38
Table 21 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products
    Procurement and Operational Costs), Albania, 2010-2020 .................... 39
Table 22 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2009-
    2020 ........................................................................................................ 47
Table 23 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products,
    BiH, 2009-2020 ....................................................................................... 48
Table 24 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, BiH, 2009-2020........ 48
Table 25 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, BiH, 2009-2020 .... 48
Table 26 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports,
    BiH, 2010-2021 ....................................................................................... 49
Table 27 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, BiH, 2010-2021 ..... 49
Table 28 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, BiH, 2010-
    2021 ........................................................................................................ 49
Table 29 Crude Oil and Intermediate Products Storage Capacities in Bosanski
    Brod Refinery, BiH .................................................................................. 51
Table 30 Storage Capacities for Petroleum Products, BiH ............................ 51


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                   viii
26 April 2011
Table 31 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, BiH,
    2010-2020............................................................................................... 53
Table 32 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Oil Products Purchase, BiH,
    2010-2020............................................................................................... 53
Table 33 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, BiH, 2010-2020 ........................ 54
Table 34 Storage Tank Construction Plan, BiH, 2010-2020 .......................... 54
Table 35 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products
    Procurement and Operational Costs), BiH, 2010-2020 ........................... 54
Table 36 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum, Croatia, 2009-2020 62
Table 37 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products,
    Croatia, 2009-2020 ................................................................................. 62
Table 38 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Croatia, 2009-2020 .. 62
Table 39 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Croatia, 2009-2020
    ................................................................................................................ 63
Table 40 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports,
    Croatia, 2010-2021 ................................................................................. 63
Table 41 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Croatia, 2010-2021 63
Table 42 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, Croatia, 2010-
    2021 ........................................................................................................ 63
Table 43 Crude Oil and Semi Products Storage Capacities in Croatia .......... 65
Table 44 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Croatia ............................ 66
Table 45 LPG Storage Capacities, Croatia .................................................... 67
Table 46 Emergency Stocks Held by HANDA, Croatia .................................. 68
Table 47 Emergency Stocks Held by the Industry, Croatia ............................ 68
Table 48 Coverage of Days of Consumption, Croatia .................................... 68
Table 49 Croatian Capacity Requirements .................................................... 69
Table 50 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, FYR
    Macedonia, 2009-2020 ........................................................................... 77
Table 51 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products,
    FYR Macedonia, 2009-2020 ................................................................... 78
Table 52 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, FYR Macedonia, 2009-
    2020 ........................................................................................................ 78
Table 53 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, FYR Macedonia,
    2009-2020............................................................................................... 78
Table 54 Stockholding Obligations According to Average Daily Net Imports,
    FYR Macedonia, 2010-2021 ................................................................... 79
Table 55 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, FYR Macedonia,
    2010-2021............................................................................................... 79
Table 56 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, FYR
    Macedonia, 2010-2021 ........................................................................... 79
Table 57 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, FYR Macedonia .............. 82
Table 58 Emergency Stocks Held by OKTA Refinery, FYR Macedonia ........ 83
Table 59 Emergency Stocks Held by Makpetrol, FYR Macedonia ................. 83
Table 60 Emergency Stocks Held by Lukoil, FYR Macedonia ....................... 83
Table 61 Total Quantity of Emergency Stocks held in FYR Macedonia ......... 83
Table 62 Coverage of Days of Consumption, FYR Macedonia...................... 84

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                    ix
26 April 2011
Table 63 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, FYR
    Macedonia, 2010-2021 ........................................................................... 87
Table 64 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Products Purchase, FYR
    Macedonia, 2010-2020 ........................................................................... 87
Table 65 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Moldova,
    2008-2020............................................................................................... 95
Table 66 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products,
    Moldova, 2008-2020 ............................................................................... 96
Table 67 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Moldova, 2008-2020 96
Table 68 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Moldova, 2008-2020
    ................................................................................................................ 96
Table 69 Stockholding Obligations According to Average Daily Net Imports,
    Moldova, 2009-2021 ............................................................................... 97
Table 70 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Moldova, 2009-2021
    ................................................................................................................ 97
Table 71 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, Moldova, 2009-
    2021 ........................................................................................................ 97
Table 72 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage
    Capacities Construction, Moldova, 2010-2020 ....................................... 99
Table 73 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Products Purchase, Moldova,
    2010-2020............................................................................................. 100
Table 74 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Moldova, 2010-2020 ................. 100
Table 75 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products
    Procurement and Operational Costs), Moldova, 2010-2020 ................. 100
Table 76 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Montenegro
    2009-2020............................................................................................. 105
Table 77 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products,
    Montenegro, 2009-2020 ....................................................................... 105
Table 78 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Montenegro, 2009-
    2020 ...................................................................................................... 106
Table 79 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Montenegro, 2009-
    2020 ...................................................................................................... 106
Table 80 Stockholding Obligations According to Average Daily Net Imports,
    Montenegro, 2010-2021 ....................................................................... 106
Table 81 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Montenegro, 2010-
    2021 ...................................................................................................... 106
Table 82 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, Montenegro,
    2010-2021............................................................................................. 107
Table 83 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Montenegro .................. 108
Table 84 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage,
    Montenegro, 2010-2020 ....................................................................... 110
Table 85 Needed Investment in Oil Products Purchase, Montenegro, 2010-
    2020 ...................................................................................................... 110
Table 86 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, Montenegro, 2010-2020 ......... 110
Table 87 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Montenegro, 2010-2020 ........... 111


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                     x
26 April 2011
Table 88 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products
    Procurement and Operational Costs), Montenegro, 2010-2020 ........... 111
Table 89 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Serbia,
    2009-2020............................................................................................. 118
Table 90 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products,
    Serbia, 2009-2020 ................................................................................ 118
Table 91 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Serbia, 2009-2020 . 119
Table 92 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Serbia, 2009-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 119
Table 93 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports,
    Serbia, 2010-2021 ................................................................................ 119
Table 94 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Serbia, 2010-2021
    .............................................................................................................. 119
Table 95 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Serbia, 2010-
    2021 ...................................................................................................... 120
Table 96 Transnafta Pipeline Transportation System, Serbia ...................... 121
Table 97 Crude Oil and Semi Products Storage Capacity, Serbia ............... 121
Table 98 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Serbia ........................... 122
Table 99 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage,
    Serbia, 2010-2021 ................................................................................ 125
Table 100 Required Investment in Oil Product Purchases, Serbia, 2010-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 125
Table 101 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Serbia, 2010-2020 .................. 125
Table 102 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products
    Procurement and Operational Costs), Serbia, 2010-2020 .................... 125
Table 103 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, UNMIK,
    2009-2020............................................................................................. 131
Table 104 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products,
    UNMIK, 2009-2020 ............................................................................... 131
Table 105 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, UNMIK, 2009-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 131
Table 106 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, UNMIK, 2009-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 132
Table 107 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports,
    UNMIK, 2010-2021 ............................................................................... 132
Table 108 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, UNMIK, 2010-2021
    .............................................................................................................. 132
Table 109 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, UNMIK, 2010-
    2021 ...................................................................................................... 132
Table 110 Storage Capacities for Oil Products ............................................ 134
Table 111 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage,
    UNMIK, 2010-2021 ............................................................................... 136
Table 112 Needed Investment in Oil Products Purchase, UNMIK, 2010-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 136
Table 113 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, UNMIK, 2010-2020 .............. 136
Table 114 Storage Tank Construction Plan, UNMIK, 2010-2020 ................. 136

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                   xi
26 April 2011
Table 115 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products
    Procurement and Operational Costs), UNMIK, 2010-2020 ................... 136
Table 116 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Georgia,
    2009-2020............................................................................................. 143
Table 117 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products,
    Georgia, 2009-2020 .............................................................................. 144
Table 118 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Georgia, 2009-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 144
Table 119 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Georgia, 2009-
    2020 ...................................................................................................... 144
Table 120 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Georgia, 2010-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 145
Table 121 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Georgia, 2010-
    2021 ...................................................................................................... 145
Table 122 Georgia Storage Capacity ........................................................... 146
Table 123 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage,
    Georgia, 2010-2020 .............................................................................. 148
Table 124 Georgia Oil Product Purchase .................................................... 148
Table 125 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Turkey,
    2009-2020............................................................................................. 154
Table 126 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products,
    Turkey, 2009-2020................................................................................ 155
Table 127 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Turkey, 2009-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 155
Table 128 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Turkey, 2009-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 155
Table 129 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Turkey, 2009-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 156
Table 130 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Turkey, 2009-
    2020 ...................................................................................................... 156
Table 131 Storage Capacity ........................................................................ 157
Table 132 Turkish Industry Stock Holding Requirements ............................ 159
Table 133 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage,
    Turkey, 2010-2020................................................................................ 160
Table 134 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Ukraine,
    2009-2020............................................................................................. 166
Table 135 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products,
    Ukraine, 2009-2020 .............................................................................. 166
Table 136 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Ukraine, 2009-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 166
Table 137 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Ukraine, 2009-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 167
Table 138 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Ukraine, 2009-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 167
Table 139 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Ukraine, 2009-
    2020 ...................................................................................................... 167

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                   xii
26 April 2011
Table 140 Ukraine Ports & Terminals .......................................................... 167
Table 141 Storage Capacity ........................................................................ 168
Table 142 Refineries .................................................................................... 168
Table 143 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage,
    Ukraine 2010-2020 ............................................................................... 169
Table 144 Commodity Purchase Capital Expenditure, Ukraine ................... 169
Table 145 EU Bilateral Emergency Oil Stocks Agreements ......................... 175
Table 146 Oil Production, Albania, 2007-2020 ............................................ 184
Table 147 Crude Oil Import and Export, Albania, 2007-2020 ...................... 184
Table 148 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020 ....... 184
Table 149 Refinery Own Use, Albania, 2007-2020 ...................................... 184
Table 150 Petroleum Product Imports, Albania, 2007-2020 ........................ 184
Table 151 Petroleum Product Exports, Albania, 2007-2020 ........................ 185
Table 152 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 185
Table 153 Crude Oil Import, BiH, 2007-2020 ............................................... 186
Table 154 Net Production of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020 ............. 186
Table 155 Refinery Own Use, BiH, 2007-2020 ............................................ 186
Table 156 Petroleum Product Imports, BiH, 2007-2020............................... 186
Table 157 Petroleum Product Exports, BiH, 2007-2020 .............................. 187
Table 158 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020 187
Table 159 Oil and Condensate Production, Croatia, 2007-2020.................. 188
Table 160 Crude Oil Import, Croatia, 2007-2020 ......................................... 188
Table 161 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020 ....... 188
Table 162 Refinery Own Use, Croatia, 2007-2020 ...................................... 188
Table 163 Petroleum Product Imports, Croatia, 2007-2020 ......................... 189
Table 164 Petroleum Product Exports, Croatia, 2007-2020......................... 189
Table 165 International Bunkers, Croatia, 2007-2020.................................. 189
Table 166 Stock Changes, Croatia, 2007-2020 ........................................... 190
Table 167 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 190
Table 168 Crude Oil Import, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ........................... 191
Table 169 Net production of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 191
Table 170 Refinery Own Use, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ........................ 191
Table 171 Petroleum Product Imports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ........... 191
Table 172 Petroleum Product Exports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020........... 192
Table 173 Stock Changes, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ............................. 192
Table 174 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia,
    2007-2020............................................................................................. 192
Table 175 Crude Oil Production, Moldova, 2007-2020 ................................ 193
Table 176 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-2020 ..... 193
Table 177 Petroleum Product Imports, Moldova, 2007-2020 ....................... 193
Table 178 Petroleum Product Exports, Moldova, 2007-2020....................... 194
Table 179 Stock Changes, Moldova, 2007-2020 ......................................... 194


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                  xiii
26 April 2011
Table 180 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-
    2020 ...................................................................................................... 194
Table 181 Petroleum Product Imports, Montenegro, 2007-2020 ................. 195
Table 182 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Montenegro, 2007-
    2020 ...................................................................................................... 195
Table 183 Oil and Condensate Production, Serbia, 2007-2020 ................... 196
Table 184 Crude Oil Import, Serbia, 2007-2020 .......................................... 196
Table 185 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020......... 196
Table 186 Refinery Own Use, Serbia, 2007-2020 ....................................... 196
Table 187 Petroleum Product Imports, Serbia, 2007-2020 .......................... 197
Table 188 Petroleum Product Exports, Serbia, 2007-2020 .......................... 197
Table 189 Stock Changes, Serbia, 2007-2020 ............................................ 197
Table 190 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 198
Table 191 Petroleum Product Imports, UNMIK, 2007-2020 ......................... 199
Table 192 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, UNMIK, 2007-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 199
Table 193 Georgia Petroleum Product Consumption, 2007-2020 ............... 200
Table 194 Georgian Domestic Petroleum Product Import, 2007-2020......... 200
Table 195 Oil and Condensate Production, Turkey, 2007-2020 .................. 201
Table 196 Crude Oil Import, Turkey, 2007-2020 .......................................... 201
Table 197 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020......... 201
Table 198 Refinery Own Use, Turkey, 2007-2020 ....................................... 201
Table 199 Petroleum Product Imports, Turkey, 2007-2020 ......................... 202
Table 200 Petroleum Product Exports, Turkey, 2007-2020 ......................... 202
Table 201 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Turkey, 2007-2020
    .............................................................................................................. 202
Table 202 GDP Data Used in Economic Forecasting .................................. 204
Table 203 Albania MAED Inputs .................................................................. 205
Table 204 MAED Inputs BiH ........................................................................ 206
Table 205 MAED Inputs Croatia .................................................................. 207
Table 206 MAED Inputs FYR Macedonia .................................................... 208
Table 207 MAED Inputs Moldova ................................................................ 209
Table 208 MAED Inputs Montenegro ........................................................... 210
Table 209 MAED Inputs Serbia ................................................................... 211
Table 210 MAED Inputs UNMIK .................................................................. 212




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                  xiv
26 April 2011
Abbreviations

€                     Euro
APETRA                The Belgian stockholding agency
API                   American Petroleum Institute
ARA                   Antwerp, Rotterdam, Amsterdam
ARMO                  Albanian Refining and Marketing of Oil
ASMR                  The Czech Administration of State Material
                      Reserves
bbl                   barrel
BE                    Belgium
BiH                   Bosnia and Herzegovina
BTC                   Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyan
CHEM                  chemicals
CIA                   Central Intelligence Agency
cif                   cost, insurance, freight
CP                    Contracting Parties
CSE                   Central Stockholding Entity (or Agency)
CY                    Cyprus
CZ                    Czech Republic
DE                    Germany
DK                    Denmark
DORS                  Downstream Oil Reporting System
dwt                   dead weight tonnage
EC                    European Commission
EIHP                  Energy Institute Hrvoye Pozar
EE                    Estonia
EL                    Greece
EN590                 European Norm 590, a standard European
                      grade of diesel fuel
ES                    Spain
EU                    European Union
FI                    Finland
FO                    fuel oil
fob                   free on board
FR                    France
FYR                   Former Yugoslav Republic
GIFP                  Giurgiulesti International Free Port
HANDA                 The Croatian stockholding agency
HRK                   Croatian Kuna
HU                    Hungary
HUSA                  The Hungarian Association of Crude Oil and Oil
                      Products Stockpiling
IAEA                  International Atomic Energy Agency


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                       xv
26 April 2011
IE                    Ireland
IEA                   International Energy Agency
IEJE                  Institute Economique et Juridique de l′Energie
INA                   Industrija Nafte d. d., a Croatian oil company
IT                    Italy
JANAF                 Jadranski naftovod, a Croatian pipeline
                      company
JP-4                  A type of naphtha-based jet fuel, also “Jet
                      Propellant”
JP Transnafta         A Serbian pipeline company
KKKSz                 The former Hungarian Association of Crude Oil
                      and Oil Products Stockpiling, now called HUSA
km                    kilometre
kt/y                  thousand tonnes per year
l                     litre
LPG                   liquefied petroleum gas
LT                    Lithuania
LU                    Luxembourg
LV                    Latvia
m3                    cubic metre
MAED                  Model for Analysis of Energy Demand
Med                   Mediterranean
MEDEE                 Modele d’Evolution de la Demande d’Energie –
                      a sectoral end-use type energy demand model
MESSAGE               Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives
                      and their General Environmental Impact
MKD                   Macedonia Denar
MOL                   Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari, an Hungarian oil &
                      gas company
MT                    Malta
Mt/y                  million tonnes per year
NESO                  The Turkish National Emergency Sharing
                      Organisation
NGL                   natural gas liquid
NIS                   Naftna Industrija Srbije, a Serbian oil company
NL                    Netherlands
NORA                  National Oil Reserves Agency (in Ireland)
OKTA                  An oil refinery in the Macedonia, owned by
                      Hellenic Petroleum
OMV                   Österreichischen Mineralölverwaltung
                      Aktiengesellschaft, an Austrian oil company
PET                   petroleum products
PPRS                  Petroleum Production Reporting System
prsn                  person
PT                    Portugal
RSD                   Serbian Dinar

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                        xvi
26 April 2011
SE                    Sweden
SI                    Slovenia
SK                    Slovak Republic
SOCAR                 State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic
t                     tonnes
tkm                   Tonne - kilometre
TNK-BP                Company formed by the merger of British
                      Petroleum’s Russian oil and gas assets and the
                      oil and gas assets of Alfa, Access/Renova
                      group, the latter being known as Tyumen Nefte
                      Kompany (Tyumen Oil Company)
toe                   tonnes of oil equivalent
UL95                  Unleaded 95, unleaded gasoline with a research
                      octane number of 95
UK                    United Kingdom (of Great Britain and Northern
                      Ireland)
UNMIK                 United Nations Interim Administration Mission in
                      Kosovo
US$                   United States dollar
VEG                   vegetable oils




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                         xvii
26 April 2011
1. Executive Summary
This is the Final Report for the study on Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy
Community Level.

The study has found:

    •    All the Beneficiaries need, to some extent, to enhance their crude oil
         and petroleum product stockholding systems in order to be in
         compliance with EU Directive 2009/119/EC.

    •    All Beneficiaries need to make some changes to their legal and
         regulatory framework to comply with the Directive.

    •    There are issues in most countries concerning the monitoring and
         transparent reporting of emergency stockholding and that regulations
         and systems will need to be developed in order to be compliant with
         the Directive.

    •    Most Beneficiaries should be able to become compliant with the
         Directive by 2020 through the adoption of a phased programme of
         changes and investment

This report is based on analysis and benchmarking of the information
gathered from the Beneficiaries. A summary of the findings is shown in Table
1.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                  1
26 April 2011
                                             Table 1 Summary of Compliance Status with Directive 2009/119/EC

                                                                                                                       Total
                                                                                                                                                             Legislative changes
                          Required Volume (thousand m3)                   Required Investments (Million €)          Investment         CSE status
                                                                                                                                                                  required
                                                                                                                     (Million €)
Beneficiary
                                                                                                    Purchase of
                         New storage            Storage         New storage          Storage
                                                                                                    crude oil and   2011-2020
                         construction         modernisation     construction       modernisation
                                                                                                      products
Albania                       97                   140              21.0                13.4             91.9          126.3       Needs to be set up                 Minor
Bosnia and
                             374                   182              86.2                16.8            212.0          126.3       Needs to be set up                Moderate
Herzegovina
Croatia                      600*                                    A more detailed study has been carried out by HANDA           HANDA in operation                 Minor

FYR Macedonia                244*                                   50.0                                 80.0          130.0       Directorate in place               Minor

                                                                                                                                                           Major – no relevant laws
Moldova                      327*                                   78.0                                130.0          208.0       Needs to be set up
                                                                                                                                                                   in place

Montenegro                   38.8                 67.2              9.3                 6.5              60.0          75.8        Needs to be set up                Moderate

                                                                                                                                      Government
Serbia                      837.0*                                 172.0                                370.0          542.0       department fulfilling             Moderate
                                                                                                                                        the role
                                                                                                                                                                      Major
UNMIK                        223.0                34.0              53.5                3.3             100.0          156.8       Needs to be set up

                                                                                                                                                           Major – no relevant laws
Georgia                     906.0*                                 218.0                                359.0          247.2       Needs to be set up
                                                                                                                                                                   in place

                                                                                                                                                           Believed to be moderate
Turkey                     11,500.0*                              2,750.0                              4,800.0        7,550.0      NESO in operation
                                                                                                                                                                and underway
Ukraine                     9,225*                                2,200.0                              3,300.0        5,500.0                        Data withheld


*Indicates a requirement to build new facilities but does not include possible utilisation of existing storage facilities




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                                                                                 2
26 April 2011
In the course of the study the Consultant came to the following conclusions:

     • Data reporting in general needs to improve for technical compliance to
       be achieved under the Directive

     • The Beneficiaries are more inclined to setting up Central Stockholding
       Entities rather than obligating operating companies which, when tried,
       has caused reporting and compliance issues

     • There are concerns about the costs of compliance with the Directive
       and there is a growing of awareness of the significant planning
       required to ensure compliance in terms of regulation, reporting and
       physical stockholding

     • There are strong reasons for considering a regional approach to
       Emergency Oil Stockholding in terms of cost minimisation but
       significant further analysis and negotiation would be required to
       implement such a regional approach

     • In order to increase security of oil supply in the region the Consultant
        recommends establishment of a Coordination Entity for oil and
        petroleum products consisting of representatives of the Beneficiaries
        and chaired by the Energy Community. The main tasks of the
        Coordination Entity would be monitoring of oil market and
        establishment of coordinated emergency response procedures.

     • All the Beneficiaries have a realistic chance of being compliant with the
       Directive by 2020.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                  3
26 April 2011
2. Introduction
This is the Final Report for the study on Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy
Community Level.

The study covered the eight Contracting Parties (CP) of the Energy
Community (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR of Macedonia,
Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia and UNMIK) and three Observer countries
(Georgia, Turkey and Ukraine), further called "Beneficiaries".

Petroleum Development Consultants (PDC) conducted this study with the
Energy Institute Hrvoye Pozar (EIHP) of Croatia.

The key objectives of this study were:

    •    Recommendations on the crude oil and petroleum product
         stockholding systems for the Beneficiaries, in accordance with EU
         Directive 2009/119/EC

    •    Determine at a high level the stock holding obligation and costs for
         each Beneficiary in the time frame of 2011 to 2020

    •    The development of a work programme for compliance with Directive
         2009/119/EC by the Contracting Parties

    •    Identification of issues and problems facing the Beneficiaries in
         achieving compliance with the Directive and the development of
         proposed solutions

    •    Examine the possibility of a regional approach to coordinating stock
         holding activities

The analysis and benchmarking in this study was heavily reliant on
information gathered from and provided by the Beneficiaries. The findings of
the study were presented to the Beneficiaries at a meeting in Vienna on 1
March 2011 and comments and feedback received subsequently have been
included in this Final Report.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                4
26 April 2011
3. Methodologies
This section gives the methodology used for the forecasting of the demand
scenarios, calculation of the stocking obligations, the initial estimation of
facilities construction and operating costs and explanation of the forward
pricing scenario for crude oil and petroleum products.

3.1. Methodology for Energy Demand Forecasting
Models prepared by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were
used to predict demand. The models MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy
Demand) and MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and
their General Environmental Impact) are particularly suitable for regional and
scenario analysis.

The MAED model is used to project useful/final energy demand. Useful
demand is an input to MESSAGE model. Energy systems are modelled and
optimised using MESSAGE model. Figure 1 shows the main interaction in the
planning process and shows the use of the MAED and MESSAGE models.

                            Figure 1 Planning Process Interaction

                            Social and Economic Perspective
                        Development drivers (economy, population,…)



          Assesment of            Assesment of energy needs                Technology
        natural resources               MAED model                          choices




        Exogenous               Analysis of energy supply options             Regional
       assumptions                   MESSAGE model                            exchange



           Environmental                                              Financial and other
       burdens and mitigation                                       resource requirements


                                Sustainable energy strategy
           Investment schedule, energy supply prices, fuel consumption, emissions,…



The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B.
Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de
l′Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                            5
26 April 2011
the MEDEE model. The IAEA adopted a simplified version of this model
(MEDEE-2) and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable
for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED
model.

The MAED model evaluates future energy demand based on medium to long-
term scenarios of socio-economic, technological and demographic
developments. The model relates systematically the specific energy demand
for producing various goods and services identified in the model to the
corresponding social, economic and technological factors that affect this
demand.

Energy demand is disaggregated into a large number of end-use categories;
each one corresponding to a given service or to the production of a certain
product. The nature and level of the demand for goods and services are a
function of several determining factors including

     • population growth
     • number of inhabitants per dwelling
     • number of electrical appliances used in households
     • peoples’ mobility and preferences for transportation modes
     • national priorities for the development of certain industries or economic
        sectors
     • the evolution of the efficiency of certain types of equipment
     • market penetration of new technologies or energy forms

The expected future trends for these determining factors, which constitute
scenarios, are exogenously1 introduced.

An understanding of these determining factors permits the evaluation of the
various categories of energy demand for each economic sector to be
considered. The total energy demand for each end-use category is
aggregated into four main energy consumer sectors

     •   industry (including agriculture, construction, mining and manufacturing)
     •   transportation
     •   commercial
     •   residential

1
  In an economic model, an exogenous change is one that comes from outside the model and
is unexplained by the model. For example, in the simple supply and demand model, a change
in consumer tastes or preferences is unexplained by the model and also leads to endogenous
changes in demand that lead to changes in the equilibrium price. Put another way, an
exogenous change involves an alteration of a variable that is autonomous, i.e., unaffected by
the workings of the model.



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                           6
26 April 2011
The model provides a systematic accounting framework for evaluating the
effect on energy demand during a change in economics or in the standard of
living of the population.

The starting point for using the MAED model is construction of base year
energy consumption patterns within the model. This requires compiling and
reconciling necessary data from different sources, obtaining and calculating
various input parameters and adjusting them to establish a base year energy
balance. This helps to calibrate the model to the country’s specific situation.

The next step is developing future scenarios, specific to a country’s situation
and objectives. The scenarios can be sub-divided into two sub-scenarios:

    •    The socio-economic system describing the fundamental characteristics
         of the social and economic evolution of the country
    •    The other related to the technological factors affecting the calculation
         of energy demand, for example, the efficiency and market penetration
         potential of each alternative energy form.

The key to plausible and useful scenarios is internal consistency of
assumptions, especially for social, economic and technological evolution. A
good understanding of the dynamic interplay among various driving forces or
determining factors is necessary. The model output, i.e. future energy
demand, is just a reflection of these scenario assumptions. The evaluation of
output and the modification of initial assumptions is the basic process by
which reasonable results are derived.

The model focuses exclusively on energy demand, and even more specifically
on demand for specified energy services. When various energy forms, i.e.
electricity, fossil fuels, etc., are competing for a given end-use category of
energy demand, this demand is calculated first in terms of useful energy and
then converted into final energy, taking into account market penetration and
the efficiency of each alternative energy source, both specified as scenario
parameters. Non-substitutable energy uses, such as motor fuels for cars,
electricity for specific uses (electrolysis, lighting etc.), are calculated directly in
terms of final energy.

Demand for fossil fuels is therefore not broken down in terms of coal, gas or
oil, because this energy supply mix largely depends on the technological
possibilities of supply and relative prices of these fuels, aspects that are
outside the scope of the MAED analysis. The substitution of fossil fuels by
alternative energy forms (i.e., solar, district heat, etc.) is nevertheless
estimated due to the importance of the structural changes in energy demand
that these energy forms may introduce in the future. Since these substitutions


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                     7
26 April 2011
will be essentially determined by policy decisions, they are to be taken into
account at the stage of formulating and writing the development scenarios.

                    Figure 2 MAED Model Main Inputs and Outputs




3.2. Stock Holding Obligation Calculation Methodology
The stock holding requirement is determined for each country according to the
Emergency Oil Stock Obligation Directive 2009/119/EC. This requires that
Member States shall ensure that the total oil stocks maintained at all times
within the Community for their benefit correspond, at the very least, to 90 days
of average daily net imports or 61 days of average daily inland consumption,
whichever of the two quantities is greater.

The average daily net imports is calculated on the basis of the crude oil
equivalent of imports which is obtained by calculating the sum of the net
imports of crude oil, NGL, refinery feedstocks and adding this to the net
imports of all other petroleum products, excluding naphtha, adjusted to take
account of stock changes and multiplied by a factor of 1.065. From the sum of
the net imports of crude oil, NGL, refinery feedstocks a deduction is made of
4% to account for naphtha yield.

Inland consumption is the sum of the aggregate observed gross inland
deliveries of the following products:

     •   motor gasoline
     •   aviation gasoline
     •   gasoline-type jet fuel (naphtha-type jet fuel or JP4)
     •   kerosene-type jet fuel
     •   other kerosene
     •   gas/diesel oil (distillate fuel oil)
     •   fuel oil (high sulphur content and low sulphur content)



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                8
26 April 2011
The crude oil equivalent of inland consumption is calculated by multiplying the
sum of the aggregate observed gross inland deliveries by a factor of 1.2.

The emergency stocks must take the form of at least the greater of 30 days of
products within saleable categories and there is assumed to be a requirement
to allow for 10% of the stocks to be unavailable due to technical problems
such as remaining in tank bottoms and being unavailable for drawdown.

Modelling of emergency stocks obligation in countries with refineries assumed
maximal amount of crude oil was because the building of storage capacities
for crude oil and storing of crude oil is cheapest than those of petroleum
products, as well as the price of crude oil itself. On the other hand, countries
with no domestic refinery were assumed to hold the entire obligation in
petroleum products. Amounts of petroleum products held were estimated on
basis of the inland consumption of main products (motor gasoline, kerosene
and jet fuel, gas/diesel oil, residual fuel oil). One must bear in mind that each
country has to set up its own structure of emergency stocks and that the
structure of stocks presented in the study is by no means binding for
Beneficiaries.

In estimating the required storage, the largest calculated required volume of
storage for each individual petroleum product and crude oil in the modelled
period is taken and rounded up to give the required volume of storage. This
approach is then taken forward to calculate capital investments in compulsory
oil storage capacities. It is important to note that these calculated volumes
and capital expenditures do not include the possible utilisation of existing
storage capacities unless the Consultant assessed that some volume of
storages need modernisation. In other words, the calculation assumes that
storage for all the required stocks must be built in addition to existing storage
capacities.

Biofuels

Directive 2009/119/EC recognises that biofuels are becoming increasingly
required in the energy mix of the EU and subsequently the Energy Community
and other legislation and targets (e.g. the 20-20-20 Scheme) require
increased use of biofuels within a 10 year time frame.

Under Directive 2009/119/EC, when calculating the stock holding obligations,
biofuels shall be taken into account when blended and consumed with
transport fuels. When accounting for the actual stockholding, biofuels should
only be counted as part of the physical stockholding where they are blended
to the appropriate specification or there is the intention and capability to blend
them to required specification.



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 9
26 April 2011
3.3. Data Reporting Requirements
Directive 2009/119/EC sets out the requirements for data collection which are
required to calculate the stock holding obligation as set out in Section 3.2
(which is covered by EC Regulation 1099/2008) and also requirements for
reporting actual stock levels. The data reports from the facilities and
companies holding the stocks should be collated by one central body. This
should be done by an appropriate government department or by a Central
Stock Holding Entity where one has been created. The reporting requirements
are summarised here:

    •    Specific Stocks (Those held by a Central Stockholding Entity) and
         consisting of certain fuel types) must be catalogued in terms of volume
         and location
    •    A statistical summary of Specific Stocks must be submitted to the
         Commission monthly giving, location, volumes and days of supply
         equivalent of the Specific Stocks based on the last day of the previous
         calendar month
    •    A statistical summary of Commercial Stocks must also be submitted to
         the Commission monthly
    •    Commercial statistical summaries must be aggregated to protect
         commercial confidentiality
    •    An annual register of stocks must be kept and continuously updated

It is important to note that the reporting of inventories must happened
promptly and reports must be processed and submitted to the commission
within the following calendar month to which they relate. The Commission will
collate and store all submitted data and make available digitally as
appropriate.

3.4. Data Collection and Processing
In order to comply with Directive 2009/119/EC, each Beneficiary will have to
collate and process large amounts of data from many different sources. The
processing has definitive time scales which mean it must be efficiently
conducted and not place too greater burden on the companies or the body
which is responsible for the data collection and processing.

In order the do this, EU Member States have implemented electronic reporting
systems to collate the data and produce reports the required reports both to
go to the European Commission and also for emergency planning purposes.
The collated data can then be fed into models to determine the obligation for
holding emergency stocks. The data are input electronically by companies.
This is advantageous as the data are only typed out once, and are already in
a standardised format and easy to use.

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               10
26 April 2011
The United Kingdom operates two systems which are used in the collection of
data for calculation stockholding obligations:

    •    The Petroleum Production Reporting System (PPRS). PPRS is an
         administrative data collection system that requires licensees operating
         on the UK Continental Shelf to submit monthly details of their
         hydrocarbon (both oil and gas) production to the Department. PPRS is
         used to report flows, stocks and of crude oils and Natural Gas Liquids
         from field level through to final disposal. It is a condition of operation on
         the UKCS that companies submit monthly returns to government.

    •    Downstream oil information, including information on the transformation
         of crude oil into petroleum products at refineries, imports and exports of
         petroleum products, and the delivery of these products into
         consumption by various users, is collected through the Downstream Oil
         Reporting System (DORS). DORS was developed in cooperation with
         industry.

In order to comply with DORS, refiners and importers have to submit
completed forms to the Department of Energy and Climate change on a
monthly basis. Examples of the forms can be seen in Figure 3 and Figure 4.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   11
26 April 2011
                        Figure 3 Refiners Data Collection Sheet




Source: UK Emergency Oil Stocks - A guide to the measures the UK adopts to meet its
international obligations to maintain emergency oil stocks




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                      12
26 April 2011
                        Figure 4 Importers Data Collection Form




Source: UK Emergency Oil Stocks - A guide to the measures the UK adopts to meet its
international obligations to maintain emergency oil stocks



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                      13
26 April 2011
3.5. Facilities Capital and Operating Cost Estimation
Capital construction costs for the required investment in storage capacity are
estimated on the basis of the results of the Consultants survey and
experience of terminal and tankage construction projects implemented in
Europe in the recent past.

Average costs of these projects amounted to 240 €/m3 for petroleum products
and 200 €/m3 for crude oil. They include all the costs such as land acquisition,
construction work, state fees, the necessary infrastructure, ground works and
labour costs. Of course, there is potential for variation of these costs for the
different countries which will for some countries have an effect on the total net
investment required. It is the Consultants aim to give an outline of the
approximate scale of the likely costs and definitive engineering studies for
each country should be undertaken. The Consultant does however note that
there is potential for significant deviation from the average price of
construction for the jet fuel tanks because of the small volume required.
However, given that their share in total storage capacity is relatively small,
there should be relatively little impact on the total estimated investment
requirements.

                       Table 2 Assumed Tankage Construction Costs

Commodity                                                  Cost (€ / m3)
Crude Oil                                                      200
Petroleum Products                                             240
Source: PDC & EIHP Analysis

The Consultant has also taken an average of normal operating costs in
Europe as an approximation of operating costs for emergency oil stocks
storage. Operating costs used in this study present the average operating
costs attained at the existing terminals for crude oil and petroleum products.
They include terminal maintenance costs, labour costs, energy costs, fees
and maintenance of stocks and a break-down of the costs used is given in
Table 3.

                         Table 3 Storage Operating Cost Estimates

                Input                                      Cost (€ / m3)
                Maintenance                                     3.0
                Salaries                                        4.0
                Energy                                          0.4
                Fees                                            3.8
                Stocks maintenance (e.g. Cycling)               4.0
                Total                                          15.2
Source: PDC & EIHP Analysis


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 14
26 April 2011
Each country has to carry out its own detailed analysis of storage capacities
as well as economic and financial analyses of existing or future stockholding
system. The Beneficiaries has to be aware that there are a number of ways to
achieve the obligation of stockholding. There are two basic models of
stockholding system. One of them is an agency or a similar independent body
that would take care of all aspects of emergency stockholding and another
one is industry holding emergency stocks. There are also a number of
variations in between that may be short term in a transitional period or long
term. Organisational and financial aspects of stockholding presented in the
study are only one of the many ways of achieving the obligatory targets and it
should be used as a general guideline for countries in their effort of
implementing the Directive 2009/119/EC. The competent institutions could
also choose to store part of the obligation in products/crude oil another
country through a bilateral agreement or to hold part of the obligation in form
of tickets. In summary, there are several possibilities to achieve 90/61 days of
stocks:

     •    to build new storage for emergency oil stocks
     •    to store large quantity of stocks in form of crude oil in the refineries or
          coastal terminals
     •    to lease existing storage capacities from the private companies
     •    to delegate part of the stocks to operators
     •    to delegate part of the stocks to Central Stockholding Entities in
          another country/countries (bilateral agreement)
     •    to include tickets
     •    different combination of above possibilities

Each country should assess the best way of holding the emergency stocks
whether it is the cheapest, the quickest or safest way for it. The most suitable
way of stockholding depends on a numerous factors such as financing
possibilities, current situation of infrastructure, number of traders, presence of
domestic refinery, time targets, future projects in oil sector, etc. The manner of
holding stocks is also able to be changed when conditions change.

3.6. Forward Crude Oil & Product Pricing
In order to provide a cost basis for the acquisition of petroleum products to
meet the stock holding requirement in each country, it is important to have a
reasonable view on what future prices may be. It is impossible to know with
any certainty what prices will be several years in to the future. However, a
common approach to this problem is to plan based on assumptions that future
product prices will be linked to each other and to the price of crude oil in a
way that reflects historical trends.

Analysis of historical prices shows that product-to-crude oil and product-to-
product ratios and differentials (sometimes referred to as crack spreads) tend

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                    15
26 April 2011
to follow fairly consistent patterns and trends. These pricing relationships
tend to be reasonably consistent over a wide range of absolute crude oil
prices. This feature is particularly useful as crude oil price has proved to be
particularly volatile, with a range in recent years from about US$10/bbl to over
US$150/bbl.

The difficultly in predicting oil price beyond a relatively short period into the
future has proved problematic to all oil industry players. This has given rise to
the approach of developing oil price scenarios which side-step this problem.
This is the approach adopted for the analysis in this study.

It is important to note that there is no one correct view of where oil prices may
be in the future. For this study, an oil price scenario has been developed
based on US$80/bbl Brent (fob, ARA).

Market prices quotations are provided by several organisations and published
in various journals. These allow historical analysis of pricing relationships.
This applies to different grades of crude oil in different locations as well as to
petroleum products.

Based on such historical crude oil price relationships, a forecast for Urals
crude oil, delivered into the Mediterranean region, has been made that is
appropriate to US$80/bbl Brent (fob, ARA). This is approximately US$78/bbl
Urals, cif Mediterranean. This is deemed most appropriate for the countries
covered in this study as many are close to the Mediterranean and may well
process Urals crude oil in their refineries (where they have them).

Historical price analysis enables the typical range of pricing ratios and
differentials to be established. The chart below demonstrates that product
price ratios to crude oil are maintained in a fairly narrow band over time and a
wide range of absolute oil price. This pricing analysis is based on cif Med
cargo prices.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                16
26 April 2011
                                                       Figure 5 Product/Crude Price Ratios


                                 1.80                                                                                100

                                 1.60                                                                                90
    Product:crude price ratios




                                 1.40                                                                                80




                                                                                                                           Urals, CIF Med ($/bbl)
                                                                                                                     70
                                 1.20
                                                                                                                     60
                                 1.00
                                                                                                                     50
                                 0.80
                                                                                                                     40
                                 0.60
                                                                                                                     30
                                 0.40                                                                                20
                                 0.20                                                                                10
                                 0.00                                                                                0
                                        1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

                                              LPG                     Naphtha                 Jet
                                              UL95                    EN590                   Gasoil
                                              1% FO                   3.5%FO                  Urals CIF Med $/bbl



Pricing ratios and differentials can evolve over time as a function of market,
regulatory and product quality changes. However, these factors have all
varied over the last 15 years and still the range of price ratios has remained
fairly constant. As a consequence, the forecast used here does not deviate
significantly from the recent past.

The actual pricing levels for products in each country will differ from the cif
Med cargo prices, depending on the specific supply and demand position of
each country. Deficit countries will tend to pay slightly more, due to the cost
of importing from the Mediterranean, while surplus countries would achieve a
price in-country which is typically less that the cif Med cargo price due to the
need to export marginal production.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                          17
26 April 2011
                             Table 4 Assumed Product Prices

Product                                           Price / Tonne
Gasoline                                                                            US$ 750
Diesel                                                                              US$ 710
Jet fuel                                                                            US$ 740
Gas oil                                                                             US$ 710
Fuel oil                                                                            US$ 450
Product Basket                                                                        € 477
Crude Oil                                                                             € 430
                                                  2
Source: PDC Analysis of publicly available data




2
 A note on data sources: all data presented in tables within this report has come from the
Beneficiaries responses to Consultant’s Questionnaires and the Consultant’s analysis of that
data.

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                          18
26 April 2011
3.7. Obligation Calculation Model Construction
This section aims to provide a guide to the construction of a spread sheet
model for determining the required obligation under Directive 2009/119/EC.
The key functions of such a model are outlined here:

     • Gather for each country the following annual data from statistic
       agencies and from models for future dates:
          o Domestic crude oil production
          o Crude oil import
          o Crude export
          o Domestic refinery product output
          o Imports of petroleum products
          o Exports of petroleum products
          o Domestic consumption of petroleum products

     • Tabulate the above data and calculate net import/export balance and
       stock changes. This will create an energy balance for the country in
       terms of oil and petroleum products

     • The energy balances for the relevant years are then converted to
       tonnes of oil equivalent (toe). Then both methods of determining the
       stock holding obligation (i.e. based on imports and domestic
       consumption) are applied for each year as set out in Section 3.2

     • The results for both the import and domestic consumption obligation
       are then compared. The obligation which is the greater amount in toe
       terms is the obligation which must be met

     • The obligation is then converted from toe back into tonnes.

     • The obligation in tonnes is then converted into a volume in cubic
       meters using the relevant products density

     • This volume is then rounded up to allow for tank size construction.

     • The capital cost of the tankage is then determined by multiplying the
       volume of required tankage by the estimated cost per cubic meter

     • The cost of the physical stocks is then determined by multiplying the
       obligation in tonnes for each product by the relevant price.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               19
26 April 2011
4. The Role of the Central Stockholding Agency
EU Member States have taken different approaches to managing strategic
stocks with some setting up Central Stockholding Agencies (CSE), others
obligating operating companies (referred to as “economic operators” in
Directive 2009/119/EC) to hold oil stocks and some having the country’s stock
holding obligation split between operating companies and a CSE. All three
approaches can satisfy the requirements set out in Directive 2009/119/EC.

However a CSE is structured, whether as a government department or as a
corporate entity, CSE’s should satisfy the following criteria:

    •    Be a non-profit entity
    •    Formed within the Member State or other Member State
    •    Have the specific purpose of managing the Member State’s emergency
         and specific oil stocks

Where stocks are held by companies as well as a CSE, it is usual for the CSE
to also be responsible for monitoring & reporting of oil stocks. It should be
noted that whilst the CSE may audit the holdings of economic operators,
Directive 2009/119/EC also requires that third parties appointed by the
commission may audit oil stocks held by both the CSE and the company.
Where the country has elected not to form a CSE and obligates companies to
hold emergency stocks, there should be one sole body for collating and
reporting stockholding levels.

4.1. CSE Formation and Constitution
Where a country has elected to form a CSE, there is considerable flexibility in
how the CSE can be formed and how it can operate. Two contrasting
examples from countries that have recently joined the EU are given below in
Sections 4.1.1 (Hungary) and 0 (Czech Republic). In Hungary, the CSE is an
independent company owned by oil and petroleum companies which is
constituted to be non-profit making and holds the oil stocks obligations at
least-cost to the member companies. In the Czech Republic the central
government controls and funds emergency oil stocks.

      4.1.1. Hungary
Hungary is one of the first of the former Eastern Bloc countries to join the
European Union and was required to update its emergency oil stock holding
policies. In 1991, with the liberalisation of crude oil and petroleum products
trading, there was no longer a state-controlled apparatus for ensuring
adequate emergency oil stocks. In order to guarantee the provision of these
significant stocks, the Hungarian Petroleum Association was formed to
include the state oil company MOL and also the Hungarian affiliates of the
international oil companies operating in Hungary at that time.


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 20
26 April 2011
In 1993, the Hungarian Parliament adopted Act IL/1993 which laid out the
requirements for stock piling of oil products. In order to stockpile effectively,
the 14 oil companies established the Association of Crude Oil and Oil
Products Stockpiling (KKKSz). Now known as HUSA, it is an independent
organisation but its actions are controlled as laid down in the Act of 1993 and
so acts to ensure Hungary’s compliance with storage requirements whilst
allowing industry efficiently to stockpile the required quantities.

HUSA has the following tasks:

    •    Create strategic stocks equal to 90 days of net imports
    •    Ensure technical conditions for safe storage
    •    Ensure lowest cost operation of the stock piling system
    •    Ensure equal burden on all market players

HUSA has the following obligations in terms of what form the emergency oil
stocks can take:

    •    Crude oil
    •    Motor Gasoline
    •    Diesel Fuel
    •    Maximum 10% of stocks can be heavy fuel oil
    •    90% of stocks must be crude oil and Motor Gasoline / Diesel

In the 1993 Act, it was realised that to build stocks and storage capacity
equivalent to 90 days’ net import levels would be impractical in a short time
frame. Hence a schedule of stock building was required such that 20 days’ of
net import levels was required by 31 December 1993, adding 10 days by the
end of each subsequent year so that by 31 December 1998 there would be
the equivalent of 90 day net import levels as emergency oil stocks,.

The emergency stocks were created in two ways:

Petroleum Products:

    •    Purchase through bidding
    •    Toll processing in domestic refinery

Crude:

    •    Purchase through bidding

The storage of stocks by HUSA is carried out by contracting partners which
can be divided into 3 categories:

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                21
26 April 2011
    •    Independent market players
    •    100% HUSA owned storage companies
    •    Partially HUSA owned storage companies

All facilities that hold strategic stocks must have minimum loading and
unloading capacities to allow sufficient flexibility for storage:

    •    Unloading
           - Rail: minimum 2000 m3/day
    •    Loading
           -   Rail: minimum 2000 m3/day
           -   Road: 1000 m3/day

The financing of the stocks was initially done through a series of tendered,
rolling one year loan facilities. Up until 2001, these loans were guaranteed by
the government but from then the stocks acted as security for financing
needs.

                          Table 5 HUSA Cash Flows

                                        Expenses
Storage and Cycling costs                    70%
Financing costs                              25%
Operational costs                            5%

                                      Income
Members contribution                        100%
Dividends from KKKSz companies              Potential
Source: IEA/China Seminar on Oil Stocks and Emergency Response, Beijing 9-10
December, 2002 - Session 4 – IEA Experiences in Building Oil Stockholding Facilities
Stockpiling Practice in Hungary

      4.1.2. Czech Republic
In the Czech Republic the holding of emergency oil stocks is carried out by
the central government. The break-up of Czechoslovakia in 1993 meant that
Czech and Slovak reserves were not located where they best served the
needs of the two now separate countries. In terms of energy policy and
particularly oil stocks, the Czech Republic had two goals: joining the IEA
which occurred in February 2001 and achieving EU membership.

The emergency oil stocks are owned by the government and financed from
the central government budget. To manage and hold these stocks, the
Administration of State Material Reserves (ASMR) was created. ASMR has



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                       22
26 April 2011
the responsibility of monitoring and reporting the condition of emergency oil
stocks.

There are three main pieces of Czech legislation pertaining to oil stocks:

    •    Act 97/1993 on the ASMR
    •    Act 189/1999 oil stocks and procedures
    •    Decree 194/2000 Further detail on oil stocks

Act 189/1999 sets out what constitutes a supply interruption which would
trigger release of emergency oil stocks by the ASMR and actions and powers
which the ASMR may deploy in a supply interruption.

These measures can be summarised as:

    •    Motoring speed and vehicle restrictions
    •    Aviation restrictions
    •    Retailing restrictions
    •    Rationing
    •    Temporary loans of stocks to relieve localised problems

The ASMR also has powers for enforcement in times of supply disruption.
ASMR reports to the National Emergency Strategy Organisation (NESO) and
agrees basic documentation, approval of procedures and relevant training.

The Czech emergency oil stocks are required to be a maximum of 60% crude
oil and the rest in products that conform to EU categories. A maximum of 17%
may be held abroad under a ticketing arrangement but this requires
government approval.


4.2. CSE Operation
CSE’s can operate in a variety of ways in terms of ownership, operation and
maintenance of emergency stocks and storage tankage. Under Directive
2009/119/EC, tankage maybe:

    •    Owned outright by the CSE
    •    Owned in part by the CSE (for example joint facilities with companies
         to reduce costs by increasing scale)
    •    Leased from commercial providers
    •    Owned by CSE’s or companies in other countries
    •    Operated by the CSE or third party contractors

Emergency stocks maybe:
  • Owned outright by the CSE

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 23
26 April 2011
    •    Held by delegate companies (both within country and in other Member
         States)
    •    Held via ticketing arrangements with the option to buy emergency oil
         stocks when required (often held with international oil companies).


4.3. CSE Financing
CSEs have a requirement for both initial capital expenditure for the
purchasing of stocks and construction of facilities, and ongoing operation
expenditure. Options for the Beneficiaries are discussed within each country
section of this report but a brief overview of the possible options are provided
here with some key points about the two approaches:

Central Government Funding:
  • Easy to administer
  • Usually low capital costs
  • Consumers do not contribute proportionally to their consumption
  • Often shields vulnerable consumers such as the energy poor from
      additional costs

Consumer levy on fuel by unit
  • Harder to administer
  • Can have higher capital costs such unless there are government
     guarantees
  • Proportional contribution by consumers based on consumption
  • Public are aware of the cost of emergency oil stocks

In terms of financing the initial cost of the storage, the host government often
provides a soft loan or loan guarantee for the capital costs in order to
establish the emergency stocks and then further financing is secured against
the emergency stocks and the facilities (Germany and Hungary are two EU
examples of this approach).




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               24
26 April 2011
5. Albania
Albania’s geological oil reserves are mostly non-conventional (e.g. heavy,
asphalt-resinous and high sulphur) and are estimated at 450 million bbl.
Crude oil is produced from seven oil fields in southern Albania. Crude oil
production in the last few years amounted to almost twice domestic crude
needs. Bankers Petroleum Albania Ltd is currently redeveloping the Patos-
Marinza oil field through individual well leases from Albpetrol. The company
plans phased take-over of Albpetrol areas to allow for an area clean-up and
establish full consolidation of existing operations areas under Bankers’
management. Shut down of Albpetrol’s facilities and flow lines was scheduled
for end of 2010, and complete field take-over and clean-up by 2013.

There are two refineries in operation in Albania both belonging to the
company ARMO (Albanian Refining and Marketing of Oil), a former state-
owned company which was privatised in 2008 with the shareholders being
Amra Oil Sha and a consortium of Refinery Associates of Texas, Anika
Enterprises & Mercuria Energy Group that holds 85% of the shares. The
remaining 15% of shares are owned by the Albanian Government,
represented by the Ministry of Economy Trade and Energy. Oil products from
the refineries supply about one-third of the domestic market. Recent
increases in demand for light products cannot be met by the domestic
refineries. Imported motor fuels are cheaper and of better quality than those
produced in the domestic refineries and hence most of the petroleum products
are imported from Greece and Italy.

Significant foreign investment is being made as the potential for increased
recovery in existing oil fields is being realised. This indicates a potential for
additional output which should benefit the oil refineries where further
investments are also planned.

5.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand
The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position
in Albania based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                    25
26 April 2011
                          Figure 6 Crude Oil Production, Albania, 2007-2020

             2.500



             2.000



             1.500
 x 1 000 t




             1.000



              500



                0
                      2007.      2008.         2009.      2010.       2015.      2020.




                      Figure 7 Crude Oil Import and Export, Albania, 2007-2020

               200

                 0
                      2007.       2008.        2009.       2010.       2015.     2020.
              -200

              -400
 x 1 000 t




              -600

              -800

             -1.000

             -1.200

             -1.400
                                      Import           Export




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                         26
26 April 2011
                     Figure 8 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020

             1.000

              900
              800

              700
              600
 x 1 000 t




              500
              400

              300
              200
              100
                0
                        2007.          2008.          2009.              2010.    2015.          2020.

                           Naphtha       Gas/diesel oil       Residual fuel oil   Petrol coke      Bitumen




                          Figure 9 Petroleum Product Imports, Albania, 2007-2020

             800

             700

             600

             500
 x 1 000 t




             400

             300

             200

             100

               0
                        2007.          2008.          2009.              2010.    2015.          2020.
                      LPG                            Motor gasoline                Kerosene and jet fuel
                      Gas/diesel oil                 Residual fuel oil             Petrol coke
                      Bitumen                        Lubricants                    Other




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                             27
26 April 2011
                         Figure 10 Petroleum Product Exports, Albania, 2007-2020

              200

              180

              160

              140

              120
 x 1 000 t




              100

               80

               60

               40

               20

                0
                        2007.        2008.            2009.          2010.         2015.            2020.
                         Naphtha              Residual fuel oil           Petrol coke              Bitumen




              Figure 11 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020


              1.600

              1.400

              1.200

              1.000
  x 1 000 t




               800

               600

               400

               200

                    0
                          2007.            2008.          2009.          2010.          2015.          2020.
                          LPG                              Motor gasoline                  Kerosene and jet fuel
                          Gas/diesel oil                   Residual fuel oil               Petrol coke
                          Bitumen                          Lubricants                      Other




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                               28
26 April 2011
                      Figure 12 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Albania, 2007-2020


              1.600

              1.400

              1.200

              1.000

               800
 x 1 0 00 t




               600

               400

               200

                 0
                        Production               Import               Export            Consumption
              -200

              -400
                                        2007      2008    2009   2010          2015   2020




5.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligations
The following tables give the Consultant’s calculated emergency oil stocks
obligation for based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.

      Table 6 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2009-2020

                × 1 000 toe                    2009        2010            2015          2020
                Crude oil                         -208        -186          -1,222          -614
                LPG                                101         109             123           145
                Motor gasoline                       86          99            138           175
                Kerosene and jet fuel                10          15              19            24
                Gas/diesel oil                     357         398             376           437
                Residual fuel oil                    33          61             -25          -63
                Petrol coke                          32          40              -1          -22
                Bitumen                              44          58             -28          -76
                Lubricants                            9          10              14            19
                Other                                 0           2               5             9
                Total                              463         607            -599             33
                Daily net imports                   1.3         1.7            -1.6           0.1




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                      29
26 April 2011
 Table 7 90 Days Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Albania, 2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe                2009         2010           2015        2020
       Crude oil                      -51          -46           -301        -151
       LPG                             25           27             30          36
       Motor gasoline                  21           24             34          43
       Kerosene and jet fuel            2            4              5           6
       Gas/diesel oil                  88           98             93         108
       Residual fuel oil                8           15             -6         -15
       Petrol coke                      8           10              0          -5
       Bitumen                         11           14             -7         -19
       Lubricants                       2            2              4           5
       Other                            0            0              1           2
       Total                         114          150            -148           8



          Table 8 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Albania, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                         2009       2010        2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                          97        111         156        197
     Kerosene and jet fuel                   11          17         22          27
     Gas/diesel oil                         487        535         632        768
     Residual fuel oil                      124        160         190        218
     Total                                  720        824       1,000      1,209
     Daily inland consumption                2.0        2.3         2.7        3.3



        Table 9 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Albania, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                        2009        2010        2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                         16          19          26         33
     Kerosene and jet fuel                   2           3           4          4
     Gas/diesel oil                         81          89         106        128
     Residual fuel oil                      21          27          32         36
     Total                                 120         138         167        202


As the quantities of oil and petroleum products (in toe) calculated on basis of
61 days of average daily inland consumption are greater than quantities
calculated on basis of 90 days of net imports after 2010, Albania should base
its stockholding obligation on average daily inland consumption.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                     30
26 April 2011
  Table 10 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Inland Consumption,
                                 Albania, 2010-2021

       × 1 000 toe              2010         2011         2016         2021
       Petroleum products             40          46           56           67
       Crude oil                      80          92          111          135
       Total                         120         138          167          202
       Days of net imports            61          61           61           61



        Table 11 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Albania, 2010-2021

       × 1 000 t                2010         2011         2016         2021
       Motor gasoline                 12          14           19           24
       Kerosene and jet fuel           1           2            3            3
       Gas/diesel oil                 60          66           78           94
       Residual fuel oil              15          20           23           27
       Crude oil                      28          32           38           46
       Total                         116         132          161          194


The proposed composition of compulsory stocks provides the basis for the
required volume of storage to 2021 as shown in Table 12.


    Table 12 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Albania, 2010-2021

       m3                       2010         2011         2016        2021
       Motor gasoline            15.806       18.217       25.492      32.179
       Kerosene and jet fuel      1.834        2.709        3.522       4.335
       Gas/diesel oil            71.126       78.086       92.268     112.052
       Residual fuel oil         17.104       22.077       26.175      29.959
       Crude oil                 33.042       37.815       45.918      55.514
       Total                    138.912      158.905      193.375     234.039




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   31
26 April 2011
5.3. Current Oil Infrastructure
This section provides the Consultant’s understanding of the current oil
infrastructure in Albania.

                        Figure 13 Oil Infrastructure, Albania




Albania has four refineries, two of which are still in operation. The Ballsh and
Fier refineries process heavy domestic crude oil (8-35ºAPI). The Ballsh
refinery (1 Mt/y capacity) was commissioned in 1978 using Chinese
technology and initially had the capacity to produce various oil products
(including motor fuels) however this technology is now outdated. Its design
only allows production of products with high sulphur content (4-8%) and
operates at only about 30% of its nameplate capacity. Investments for
improving infrastructure and quality of products are on-going.

Finished products are shipped from Ballsh Refinery either by train or truck to
the wholesale market. The road connection between the Fier and Ballsh
refineries is not in good condition and needs improving and re-routing (e.g. to
bypass the town of Ballsh). Roads are already under construction that should
facilitate more efficient commercial transportation of products.


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               32
26 April 2011
The Fier refinery (0.5 Mt/y) was built using Russian technology which is now
outdated. The refinery processes domestic crude oil and produces mostly light
and heavy fuel oil for thermal power plant Fier and smaller quantities of
bitumen and naphtha with high sulphur content. It operates at about 10-20%
of installed capacity.

Two crude oil pipelines currently exist, one which connecting the ARMO Vlorë
oil terminal with the refineries of Fier and Ballsh. Both pipelines are out of
operation due to poor condition. In total, the oil pipeline network is 188 km
long and the capacity is 2.5 million tons per year if operational and links the
two operating refineries.

                              Table 13 Crude Oil Pipelines, Albania

                Route                                                 Length (km)
                Kuçovë - Zharrëz                                         24.0
                Zharrëz - Fier                                           14.7
                Gorisht - Ballsh                                         17.6
                Ballsh – KPTHN (Refinery)                                 1.2
                Zharrëz – Visokë – Ballsh – KPTHN (Refinery)             25.5
                Vlorë - Ballsh                                           70.0
                Vlorë - Fier (Refinery)                                  35.0
                Total                                                   188.0


There are four ports in Albania. The port of Durrës, located in the Bay of
Durrës, is the largest port in Albania and an important hub for the international
market and product import into. Its operational infrastructure consists of 11
quay aprons with a depth ranging from 7.5 m-11.7m. The port is accessible
for ships up to 20,000 dwt. To the north of city of Durrës is the newly built
Porto Romano oil terminal which can receive cargo ships with liquid gas
capacity of 9,000 tonnes and oil cargo ships with capacity of 20,000 tonnes.
The sea depth of the tanker berth is 10.5m. Discharge capacity of the
equipment is 9,000 t of gasoline in 24 hours and 4,000 t per LPG in 24 hours.
The terminal has been operated by the concessionary company Romano Port
since 2009.

At Vlora-1 port in Vlorë Bay, there is an ARMO ship unloading platform,
however this only accessible for small cargo vessels. The anchorage depth is
20.1 - 21.3m and sea depth of tanker berth is 8.5m. The export line from the
ARMO tank yard to the platform is 8" and has recently been rehabilitated. In
addition, a 10" line runs in parallel, which is used for water purging after
unloading operations. ARMO operates storage facilities for import/export of
petroleum products with a ship loading platform (about 4 km from the
shoreline). North of city of Vlorë, as part of the Vlorë coastal hydrocarbon
terminal is a new 600m long jetty with water depth of about 8.5m which can


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                    33
26 April 2011
accommodate two vessels. Unloading capacities are 19,000 t of gasoil and
gasoline in 24 hours and 1,500 t of LPG in 24 hours. The terminal has been
operated by the private company Petrolifera Italo-Rumena since 2009.

The port of Shëngjin is located at north of Albanian coast and handles among
other cargo liquid bulks, specifically oils. Anchorage depth is between 20.1
and 21.3m.

The port of Sarandë is located at southern Albanian coast. It has two areas:
Sarandë for general cargo and ferries, and Limioni bay, for fishing and other
smaller cargoes.

The current total storage capacity in Albania is about 732,000 m3.

  Table 14 Crude Oil and Intermediate Products Storage Capacities of ARMO, Albania

           Product                     Location                Capacity (m3)
                                       Ballsh Refinery           42,500*
           Crude oil
                                       Vlora-1 port               13,000
           Intermediate products       Ballsh Refinery           80,600*
           Total                                                 136,100
           *Calculated based on data expressed in tonnes

                Table 15 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Albania

     Location                            Product                  Capacity (m3)
     Ballsh refinery                     Petroleum products           45,942*
     Port of Shëngjin                    Petroleum products           39,450
     Port of Durres                      Petroleum products           31,000
                                         Fuels and
                                                                       69,000
     Porto Romano oil terminal           combustion fuels
                                         LPG                           10,000
     Vlora-1 port                        Petroleum products            13,000
     ARMO terminal, Vlora                Gasoline and gasoil           30,000
     Petrolifera oil terminal, Vlora     Petroleum products            64,000
                                         Fuel oil                     281,216
     Different wholesale companies
                                         LPG                           13,057
    Total                                                             596,665
   *Calculated based on data expressed in tonnes


In the Vlora-1 port, there is 13,000 m3 of capacity for crude oil under
construction. There are 147,000 m3 of storage for fuel and combustion fuels,
18,600 m3 for LPG and 10,000 m3 for bitumen under construction in Porto
Romano terminal. This new capacity will increase existing storage by 188,600
m3.



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                  34
26 April 2011
5.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation
In Albania refineries and wholesale companies are obliged to keep
emergency stocks of oil and oil products. The number of companies that are
required to hold stocks is increasing each year, due to the liberalisation of the
licensing process. In 2010 there were about 90 wholesale companies that had
the obligation for holding emergency oil stocks. The growth in the number of
companies is shown in Figure 14.

Figure 14 Wholesale Companies Obliged to Hold Emergency Oil Stocks, Albania 2001-
                                     2009


  70

  60

  50

  40

  30

  20

  10

    0
          2001        2002      2003     2004     2005      2006      2007       2008        2009

                LPG    Motor gasoline   Gas oil   Kerosene and jet fuel   Light fuel oil (solar)



Based on the orders of the Minister responsible for the petroleum sector
prepared for each wholesale company, the volume of emergency oil stocks for
the year 2010 was 106,467 tons of oil and petroleum products.

                          Table 16 Emergency Oil Stocks, Albania, 2010

                                       Product               Quantity (t)
                             LPG                                16,458
                             Motor gasoline                      9,979
                             Gas oil                            69,178
                             Kerosene and jet fuel               2,401
                             Light fuel oil (Solar)              8,450
                             Total                             106,467




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                    35
26 April 2011
5.5. Additional required stockholding capacities
Albania currently has 106,467 tonnes of petroleum products for emergency
stocks. This quantity almost satisfies the stockholding obligation under
Directive 2009/119/EC. In order to keep holding enough stocks regarding the
increase of consumption forecast, Albania should increase its stockholding
capacities by about 100,000 m3 by 2021 (Table 12).

5.6. Legal Review
The main institution responsible for the management of the stocks is the
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Energy. The responsible unit for the
petroleum activity and the Central Technical Inspectorate audit quantities of
emergency oil stocks. The rules and administrative procedures are based on
the “Technical regulation for maintenance of oil by-products in storages where
the emergency stocks for oil, gas and their by-products are held, and the
manner of control organisation for evaluation of the quality standards of by-
products in these storages”. This Regulation is approved by the Minister
responsible for the petroleum sector.

Law No. 8450 of 24 February 1999, “On the refining, transportation and
trading of oil, gas and their by-products” and its amendment (Law 9574, dated
3.7.2006) determines the holding of the emergency oil stocks by oil refineries
and wholesale companies of oil, natural gas and their derivatives. This is
equivalent to 30 days average sale calculated based on actual data and
results of the activity of the previous year.

Oil refineries, can meet up to 50% of their emergency oil stocks obligation in
the form of crude oil. They can keep the stocks in their own tanks or in tanks
of the oil production companies with whom they have a supply contracts.
Wholesale companies can keep the emergency oil stocks in their own tanks
or tankage rented from another company.

Law No. 9218, dated 8 April 2004 (an amendment to Law No. 8450 "For the
processing, transportation and marketing of oil, gas and derivatives”)
increased the obligation to 60 days average sales, starting from 2007 and
achieving 90 days of the average sale in 2010. Article 25 of Law Nr. 9218
imposes a penalty of up to 50% of the product value for stock that is lacking
from the defined requirement.

Decree No. 808, dated 5 November 2004 “On maintaining and management
of emergency stock for oil, gas and their products” commits refineries, coastal
installations and wholesale companies to hold emergency stocks of oil, gas
and their by-products. The emergency stocks are to be held for the following
categories:




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                36
26 April 2011
         •      Category 0 - crude oil
         •      Category I - liquid petroleum gas
         •      Category II - motor gasoline, fuel gasoline
         •      Category III - diesel oil, kerosene and jet fuel
         •      Category IV – light fuel oil

The responsible unit for the petroleum activity defines the quantity of
emergency stock for these products, held by the refinery, coastal installation
and wholesale company, calculated over the sales of preceding calendar
year. The quantity of emergency stock for the next year is defined by order of
minister responsible for hydrocarbons sector, at the end of each year.

Based on the Decision No. 914, dated 29 December 2007 (a modification to
Decision No. 808 of the Council of Ministers "On the maintenance and reserve
security management for petroleum, gas and their derivatives") the amount of
the security reserve, to be held by entities that are obliged to keep the safety
stock is:

         •      No less than 30 per cent of the technically certified tanks of the
                entity
         •      Not more than 40 per cent of the technically certified tanks of
                parties with whom the entity has an agreement with


5.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks
Emergency stocks of petroleum products are held by energy companies. The
system requires that they include their expenses for emergency stocks in the
retail price of their product. The use of storage capacities of trade companies
might also affect business opportunities and be the reason that some
companies do not carry out the imposed obligation so compliance is
problematic.

To get better control over emergency stocks and transparency of the
stockholding system, the Consultant proposes a more rigorous approach from
the government for reporting and auditing of emergency oil stocks and more
active role in fining non-compliant companies. For storing of emergency
stocks Albania should consider all possibilities in enabling usage of existing
storage whether through modernisation of storage currently out of operation
or through lease of adequate storage capacities from private companies. The
rest of the required capacities should be built in adequate locations.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                     37
26 April 2011
 Table 17 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Albania, 2010-
                                      2021

                                   Construction               Modernisation
                                  m3           €              m3          €
         Oil products           41,000     9,840,000         140,000 13,440,000
         Crude oil              56,000    11,200,000               0          0
         Total                  97,000    21,040,000         140,000 13,440,000

In accordance with the calculated total obligation up to 2021, Albania needs to
invest in the purchase of petroleum products and crude oil an amount of €91.9
million.

  Table 18 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Oil Products Purchase, Albania, 2010-
                                       2020

                                            Tonnes                 €
                 Oil products               148.216                71.989.771
                 Crude oil                  46.243                 19.872.985
                 Total                      194,459               91,862,756


The requirements for modernisation of existing storage capacity (Table 19),
construction of new facilities (Table 20) and the formation or acquisition of
stocks were defined for the purpose of calculating the investment by importers
and producers of petroleum products for each litre of gasoline, gas oil,
residual fuel oil and LPG sold on the Albanian market. The proposed scenario
results in costs that include investments in storage facilities, procurement of
petroleum products and crude oil inventories, renewal of stocks as well as
operational costs of the entire system (Table 21).

                Table 19 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, Albania, 2010-2020

            m3                   2012      2014       2016       2018       2020
            Oil products        140,000           0          0          0          0
            Crude oil                 0           0          0          0          0


                Table 20 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Albania, 2010-2020

           m3                   2012       2014       2016       2018       2020
           Oil products                0        0     20,000     21,000            0
           Crude oil                   0   30,000     26,000          0            0




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                       38
26 April 2011
  Table 21 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and
                        Operational Costs), Albania, 2010-2020

× 1 000 €    2011 2012 2013 2014                                   2015 2016 2017 2018            2019 2020
Oil products    0 69,967 2,128 2,128                              2,128 15,003 2,432 15,951      2,751 2,751
Crude oil       0      0     0 17,195                               456 15,359 851      851        851   851
Total           0 69,967 2,128 19,323                             2,584 30,362 3,283 16,802      3,602 3,602


       Figure 15 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Albania, 2012-2020

               250
                                   Crude oil          Oil products

               200



               150
   x 1 000 t




               100



               50



                0
                     2011   2012       2013    2014        2015      2016   2017   2018   2019     2020



  With the defined scenario of the stocks formation and forecast consumption of
  petroleum products in Albania, the average cost to the importers and
  manufacturers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline, gas oil,
  residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market would amount to 0.013 €/l.
  Such fee ensures the formation of 61-day supplies of oil and petroleum
  products by the year 2020 in Albania.


  5.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System
  The body responsible for the maintenance and auditing of stocks is the
  Ministry of Economy, Trade and Energy. Due to problems in the current
  system of stockholding of imposing the obligation of holding emergency
  stocks to the companies the formation of a legally empowered institution
  would provide a transparent and efficient system which would satisfy the
  needs of security supply. This institution may be an independent agency
  (CSE) or any other similar body.

  Where a country sets up a CSE, it shall take the form of a body or service
  without profit objective and acting in the general interest and shall not be
  considered to be an economic operator. The main purpose of the CSE shall
  be to acquire, maintain and sell oil stocks.


  Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                          39
  26 April 2011
The regulator should be formed by amendments of the Law and it should take
over all duties regarding emergency stocks including auditing purchase, sales,
management and reporting and disclosure of emergency stock holdings.
Given the current situation of non-compliance with emergency stock holding
requirements in Albania, there should be a grace period for investment in
storage capacity and build up of stocks.

5.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption
The procedures for usage of emergency stocks in an emergency situation are
provided in Decree No. 808 dated 5 November 2004. An emergency situation
is triggered when:

     • the petroleum market is characterized by a significant reduction of the
        supply of oil, gas and their products
     • by a material rise in the price of imports of oil, gas and their products
        compared to prices of the previous year
     • or when it is expected that these factors are likely to arise

In case of a crisis the Prime Minister will proclaim a state of emergency for oil,
oil products or gas, according to the proposal of the minister responsible for
the hydrocarbons sector. The Committee of Crisis Management defines
emergency stock usage and its market price.

The Committee of Crisis Management prepares and approves the security
measures to deal with the shortages. These measures include:

     • introducing a maximum speed for motor vehicles
     • limiting the use of certain vehicle groups
     • temporary prohibition of export of oil, gas and their products

5.10. Required Legislative Changes

Even though Albania has a legislative framework based on the EU
requirements on oil stocks it has to include recent changes included in the
Directive 2009/119/EC in its legal acts.

These changes involve:

     • The method of calculation of the obligatory oil stocks - Article 3 ;
       Annexes I, II and III
     • There is no need to classify products into Categories I, II, III etc. as the
       composition of stocks is regulated in Article 9 of the Directive
       2009/119/EC



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 40
26 April 2011
     • The quantities of emergency stocks can be stored in form of crude oil
       in larger share than 40% - Article 9 of the Directive 2009/119/EC
     • There are possibilities to for companies required to hold stocks to
       delegate their obligation - Article 8 of the Directive 2009/119/EC for
       details
     • There is an obligation to submit statistical summaries of the level of
       emergency stocks on a regular bases for each month - Article 12 and
       Annex IV of the Directive 2009/119/EC
     • There is an obligation to submit statistical summaries of the level of
       commercial stocks on a regular basis for each month - Article 14 of the
       Directive 2009/119/EC for details
     • Biofuels can be taken into account when calculating stockholding
       obligation - Article 16 of the Directive 2009/119/EC
     • The procedure in case of supply disruptions is to be refined to include
       the Commission and IEA in the process - Article 20 of the Directive
       2009/119/EC and should include a revision to price increases
       triggering a release of stocks as opposed to physical interruption.

5.11. Road Map
Albania is fairly advanced along the road to complying with Directive
2009/119/EC. However, legislative changes are still required to comply with
the Directive and to provide enforcement of company obligations. The
Consultant believes an independent regulator should be formed to calculate
the required emergency stock holding obligations, oversee reporting, auditing
and publication of the emergency oil stocks and powers to levy fines for the
non-compliance with emergency stock holding requirements. A possible
timeline as envisaged by the Consultants is given in below. It should be noted
that as the government is not envisaged as directly holding stocks, a looser
engineering study and construction phase is given as companies should be
allowed maximum flexibility for capital investment.

Having met with Albanian representatives, it has become clear that the
Albanian method of requiring industry to hold stocks has not been successful.
Albania is now considering moving towards a CSE and having one central
body control emergency stock holdings. This is a major undertaking by
Albania and will require significant reworking of legislation and legal
frameworks. The Consultant is presenting the road map for the current
situation within Albania and not the proposed move to a CSE. Once Albania
has started to move in a more certain direction, the Consultant recommends
that Albania updates the Energy Community with a new road map. The
Consultant believes that is Albania were to continue with the current
framework and plans laid out in this section and in Figure 16, then Albania
should be compliant by 2016. However, should Albania move towards a CSE
system for holding stocks, this may take longer. In either case, the Consultant
believes that Albania has a good chance of being compliant with Directive

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                             41
26 April 2011
2009/119/EC by 2016 and certainly should be compliant by the 2020 time
frame of this study.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                         42
26 April 2011
                                            Figure 16 Gantt Diagram for Road Map, Albania




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                            43
26 April 2011
6. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is completely dependent on imported crude oil
but it has petroleum products production in two refineries. The available
production and refining capacities of both refinery plants, Bosanski Brod Oil
Refinery and Modriča Lube Refinery, are relatively high given the size of the
BiH market.

6.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand
The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position
in BiH based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.

                            Figure 17 Crude Oil Imports, BiH, 2007-2020

             4.500

             4.000

             3.500

             3.000
 x 1 000 t




             2.500

             2.000

             1.500

             1.000

              500

                0
                     2007       2008         2009        2010        2015   2020




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   44
26 April 2011
                     Figure 18 Net Production of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020

             4.000

             3.500

             3.000

             2.500
 x 1 000 t




             2.000

             1.500

             1.000

               500

                 0
                       2007                2008             2009             2010       2015            2020
                       LPG                        Motor gasoline           Naphtha         Gas/diesel oil

                       Residual fuel oil          Bitumen                  Lubricants      Other




                             Figure 19 Petroleum Product Imports, BiH, 2007-2020

             1.600

             1.400

             1.200

             1.000
 x 1 000 t




              800

              600

              400

              200

                0
                       2007                2008             2009             2010       2015            2020
                          LPG                                 Motor gasoline              Kerosene and jet fuel
                          Gas/diesel oil                      Residual fuel oil           Petrol coke
                          Bitumen                             Lubricants                  Other




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                  45
26 April 2011
                           Figure 20 Petroleum Product Exports, BiH, 2007-2020

             3.000


             2.500


             2.000
 x 1 000 t




             1.500


             1.000


              500


                0
                      2007            2008              2009      2010            2015              2020

                      LPG                    Motor gasoline      Gas/diesel oil          Residual fuel oil
                      Petrol coke            Bitumen             Lubricants              Other




                Figure 21 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020

             2.000

             1.800

             1.600

             1.400

             1.200
 x 1 000 t




             1.000

              800

              600

              400

              200

                0
                      2007            2008              2009      2010            2015              2020
                     LPG                     Motor gasoline      Kerosene and jet fuel    Naphtha
                     Gas/diesel oil          Residual fuel oil   Petrol coke              Bitumen
                     Lubricants              Other




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                             46
26 April 2011
                       Figure 22 Oil Product Supply and Demand, BiH, 2007-2020


             4.000


             3.000


             2.000


             1.000
 x 1 000 t




                 0
                        Production              Imports            Exports                Consumption
             -1.000


             -2.000


             -3.000
                                       2007      2008     2009   2010        2015       2020




6.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation
The following tables give the Consultants calculated emergency oil stocks
obligation for BiH based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.

             Table 22 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2009-2020


               × 1 000 toe                    2009          2010             2015              2020
               Crude oil                        1,022         1,104            3,101             3,744
               LPG                                  13            -7            -152              -187
               Motor gasoline                     212           155             -453              -586
               Kerosene and jet fuel                 2             2                2                 3
               Gas/diesel oil                     549           566             -251              -349
               Residual fuel oil                 -122          -149             -276              -368
               Petrol coke                          39            36              32                 28
               Bitumen                            -16           -31             -224              -292
               Lubricants                           -4            -6             -58               -79
               Other                              -17           -11              -33               -49
               Total                            1,679         1,659            1,688             1,866
               Daily net imports                   4.6           4.5              4.6               5.1




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                          47
26 April 2011
Table 23 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, BiH, 2009-
                                         2020

       × 1 000 toe                2009         2010           2015        2020
       Crude oil                     252          272             765         923
       LPG                              3           -2            -38         -46
       Motor gasoline                  52           38           -112        -144
       Kerosene and jet fuel            0            1              1           1
       Gas/diesel oil                135          140             -62         -86
       Residual fuel oil              -30          -37            -68         -91
       Petrol coke                     10            9              8           7
       Bitumen                         -4           -8            -55         -72
       Lubricants                      -1           -2            -14         -19
       Other                           -4           -3             -8         -12
       Total                         414          409             416         460




           Table 24 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, BiH, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                        2009        2010        2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                        365         360         378        413
     Kerosene and jet fuel                    2           2           2          4
     Gas/diesel oil                      1,018       1,120       1,175      1,367
     Residual fuel oil                     146         140         115        101
     Total                               1,531       1,622       1,670      1,884
     Daily inland consumption               4.2         4.4         4.6        5.2




          Table 25 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, BiH, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                       2009        2010         2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                        61          60           63         69
     Kerosene and jet fuel                  0           0            0          1
     Gas/diesel oil                       170         187          196        228
     Residual fuel oil                     24          23           19         17
     Total                                256         271          279        315




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                     48
26 April 2011
 Table 26 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports, BiH, 2010-
                                       2021

       × 1 000 toe               2010        2011         2016         2021
       Petroleum products           138         136          139          153
       Crude oil                    276         273          278          307
       Total                        414         409          416          460
       Days of net imports            90          90           90           90

The proposed composition of compulsory stocks is based on current crude oil
and petroleum products storage capacities and provides the basis for the
required volume of storage to 2021 as shown in Table 28.

          Table 27 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, BiH, 2010-2021

       × 1 000 t                 2010        2011         2016         2021
       Motor gasoline                 72           67          69             74
       Kerosene and jet fuel         0.4          0.4          0.4           0.6
       Gas/diesel oil                202         207          215           245
       Residual fuel oil              29           26          21             18
       Crude oil                      95           94          95           105
       Total                         398         394          401           443

On the basis of proposed composition of compulsory stocks, the required
storage capacity until 2021 is shown below.

      Table 28 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, BiH, 2010-2021

       m3                       2010         2011         2016         2021
       Motor gasoline            96,387       88,739       92,111       98,566
       Kerosene and jet fuel        526          584          577          848
       Gas/diesel oil           240,267      246,410      255,603      291,390
       Residual fuel oil         32,638       29,164       23,656       20,282
       Crude oil                113,881      112,522      114,527      126,571
       Total                    483,700      477,419      486,473      537,658


6.3. Current Oil Infrastructure
The current refining capacities are greater than the market requirements of
BiH. The refinery has two plants with a total capacity of processing 4,320,000
tons of oil annually. The older of the two plants started operation in 1968 with
a capacity of 2 million tons a year, but currently its effective capacity is
1,320,000 tons a year. The new oil plant was designed for an annual output of
3 million tons. The construction of the new oil refining line was completed and
put in trial operation in 1991, but because of the Balkans conflict, the plant



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   49
26 April 2011
was never used. The conflict caused damage and lack of financial resources
after the conflict prevented the re-start of the new plant.

A Russian company, NefteGazInKor, purchased an 80% share in the
Bosanski Brod Refinery, a 75.6% share in the Modriča Refinery and 80%
share in Petrol Banja Luka. It was required to provide investment that would
lead to significant rejuvenation of the BiH oil industry. These investments
would ensure the functioning of the processing capacities of the new line
which would increase the refinery's total annual capacity up to 4.2 million tons.

The refinery Bosanski Brod imports crude oil by oil pipeline JANAF connected
to Omišalj sea terminal in Croatia.

                         Figure 23 Oil Infrastructure, BiH




BiH has around 800,000 m3 storage capacity. Of those 532,707 m3 are in
Bosanski Brod refinery. Many of the storage tanks in BiH were damaged
during the conflict. There are also tank facilities that need modernisation in
order to comply with EU security standards. BiH owns a terminal in Port of
Ploče in Croatia with a capacity 82,000 m3 with a shipping capacity of 500 t/h
and receiving capacity of 1,000 t/h. The terminal is operated by Naftni
Terminali Federacije.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                              50
26 April 2011
  Table 29 Crude Oil and Intermediate Products Storage Capacities in Bosanski Brod
                                    Refinery, BiH

                              Product                   Capacity* (m3)
                      Crude oil                           163,000
                      Intermediate products               122,863
                      Total                               285,863
                     *Capacities in operation


                   Table 30 Storage Capacities for Petroleum Products, BiH

        Location                                Product              Capacity (m3)
                                                LPG                      3,241
                                                Motor gasoline          31,272
                                                Diesel                  80,279
        Bosanski Brod refinery
                                                Gas oil                  4,705
                                                Residual fuel oil       47,735
                                                Other*                  79,475
                                                LPG                      1,000
                                                Motor gasoline          20,000
        Sarajevo
                                                Jet fuel                 3,000
                                                Diesel                  20,000
                                                LPG                      1,000
        Mostar                                  Motor gasoline           6,000
                                                Diesel                  30,000
                                                LPG                      1,000
                                                Motor gasoline           3,000
        Živinice
                                                Jet fuel                 6,000
                                                Diesel                  10,000
                                                Motor gasoline          32,000
        Ploče
                                                Diesel                  50,000
                                                Motor gasoline           5,000
        Čapljina
                                                Diesel                  15,000
                                                Motor gasoline           8,000
        Bihać                                   Jet fuel                27,000
                                                Diesel                  10,000
        Ilijaš                                  Diesel                  28,000
        Vrbanja                                 n/a                     20,900
        Brezičani                               n/a                     17,600
        Banja Luka (Krajinapetrol a.d.)         n/a                      4,600
        Vardište-Višegrad                       n/a                      3,500
        Different smaller terminals             n/a                     10,000
        Total                                                          499,832
       *Including naphtha, platformate bitumen and base oil




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                     51
26 April 2011
6.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation
BiH has currently no emergency oil stocks and is understood by the
Consultant to be evaluating possible options.

6.5. Additional required stockholding capacities
The refinery currently has 163,000 m3 of storage for crude oil in operation, but
additional storage for crude oil and petroleum products could be provided
after repair and modernisation. There is also a possibility to increase capacity
in Port of Ploče or to lease storage from private companies. However, even
with these measures, BiH needs new storage capacity to be built and / or
existing storage capacities to rehabilitated and modernised.

In that regard, the Consultant assumed that about 2/3rd of required
stockholding capacities should be built new and other 1/3rd should be supplied
by repair or modernisation of existing capacity (Table 31). In this way there is
a possibility to achieve oil stocks formation with lower financial burden to the
consumers.

6.6. Legal Review
At present, BiH does not have the legislation in place which regulates
compulsory stocks of oil and petroleum products on the State level. The first
steps towards creating the conditions to undertake obligation given in (then
applicable) Directives 68/414/EEC, 73/239/EEC and 98/93/EC, which
prescribed the obligation of forming the required reserves of crude oil
("Emergency Oil Stock") as well as procedures in situations of supply
interruptions, were made in 2003 when the Government of the Federation BiH
by Decision No. 599/03 (Official Gazette FBiH, 60/03) established the
Company for storage of liquid fuels "Terminali Federacije " Ltd., Sarajevo. The
main task of the Company is just keeping of emergency stocks.

The Republika Srpska has recently adopted a new Law on oil and petroleum
products (Official Gazette RS No. 36/09) that stipulates emergency oil stocks.
According to the Law on oil and petroleum products of Republika Srpska, oil
stocks are supposed to be in place by the beginning of 2012 comprising three
groups of oil products:
   • motor gasoline and aviation gasoline;
   • diesel fuels, gas oil and jet fuel;
   • fuel oil.

Emergency stocks can consist of crude oil and semi final oil products, up to
40% for motor gasoline, aviation gasoline, diesel fuels, gas oil and jet fuel and
up to 50% for fuel oil. State reserves, operational reserves, oil products in
tanks of vehicles for driving and other transport means, products in rail cars,
road tankers, gas filling stations tanks, in tanks of consumers are excluded
from emergency oil stocks.

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               52
26 April 2011
The Government of Republika Srpska is preparing sub laws and/or other legal
binding documents for emergency oil stock organisation system, financing
and dynamics of formation.

The Federal Ministry of Energy, Mining and Industry of the Federation of BiH
is about to finish and adopt Decree on organization and regulation of oil sector
in BiH. The aim of this document is to set up legal framework for security
supply improvement, organization and regulation of oil sector in the
Federation of BiH, increase level of transparency in doing oil business,
increase petroleum products quality, as well as establishment of emergency
oil stocks upon adoption of state level legal framework in line with Directive
2009/119/EC. The draft of the Decree stipulates establishment of 90-days oil
stocks, its composition, which stocks can/cannot be taken into calculation,
dynamics of establishment, etc.


6.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks
The total obligation of emergency stocks to be held in the period of 2011-2021
(Table 26) is expected to be 460,000 toe in 2021. According to the proposed
structure of compulsory stocks it is necessary to ensure 426,000 m3 of
storage for petroleum products, and 130,000 m3 for crude oil by 2020. It is
estimated that in BiH, there is about 142,000 m3 of storage capacity available
for stockholding of oil products and about 40,000 m3 for crude oil. Accordingly,
it is necessary to build additional 284,000 m3 of storage capacity for oil
products and 90,000 m3 for crude oil (Table 31). Total investment in
construction of new storage capacities and modernization of existing facilities
is estimated at €103 million.

Table 31 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, BiH, 2010-2020

                                Construction             Modernisation
                               m3           €           m3           €
         Oil products        284,000   68,160,000    142,000    13,632,000
         Crude oil           90,000    18,000,000     40,000     3,200,000
         Total               374,000   86,160,000    182,000    16,832,000

Based on the calculated total obligation to 2021 BiH needs to purchase
petroleum products and crude oil for €212 million (Table 32).

  Table 32 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Oil Products Purchase, BiH, 2010-2020

                                        Tonnes        €
                        Oil products     337,388 166,676,453
                        Crude oil        105,434  45,310,004
                        Total            442,822 211,986,457


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                  53
26 April 2011
In order to generate finance for emergency stocks formation in BiH, the
Consultant recommends collection of fee paid by the producers and importers
of petroleum products. As the petroleum products price is not regulated the
cost of the stockholding system would be included in the retail price of motor
fuels. The liable body should be responsible for collection of the fees.

The requirement for the modernisation of existing the storage capacity (Table
33), construction of new facilities (Table 34) and the formation or acquisition
of stocks were defined for the purpose of calculating the compensation to be
paid by importers and producers of petroleum products per each litre of
gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG sold on the BiH market. The
proposed scenario costs include investments in storage facilities, procurement
of petroleum products and crude oil inventories, renewal of stocks as well as
operational costs of the entire system (Table 35).

                 Table 33 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, BiH, 2010-2020

            m3                2012       2014      2016        2018       2020
            Products          50,000     92,000           0           0          0
            Crude oil         40,000          0           0           0          0


                  Table 34 Storage Tank Construction Plan, BiH, 2010-2020

            m3                2012       2014      2016        2018       2020
            Products                 0   40,000    80,000     100,000     64,000
            Crude oil                0   40,000    40,000           0          0


 Table 35 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and
                          Operational Costs), BiH, 2010-2020

× 1 000 €       2011 2012 2013 2014 2015         2016          2017 2018 2019 2020
Products           0 25,321 760 73,367 2,766 54,800           3,982 69,024 5,502 47,129
Crude oil          0 18,127 608 23,535 1,216 24,143           1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824
Total              0 43,448 1,368 96,902 3,982 78,943         5,806 70,848 7,326 48,953


With the defined scenario of emergency oil stocks formation (Figure 23) and
forecast consumption of petroleum products in BiH, the average fee paid by
the importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per each litre of
gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market would
amount to 0.020 €/l. The proposed fee ensures the formation of 90-day
supplies of oil and petroleum products by the year 2020 in BiH.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                     54
26 April 2011
                Figure 24 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in BiH, 2012-2020

                500
                                      Crude oil     Oil products
                450

                400

                350

                300
    x 1 000 t




                250

                200

                150

                100

                50

                 0
                      2011   2012   2013     2014    2015          2016   2017   2018   2019   2020


6.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System
Currently, BiH does not have an established emergency stocks system. It
would be necessary to form a CSE3 or relevant body under the jurisdiction of
the state level authority of BiH that would execute the legal obligations
stipulated in the Directive 2009/911/EC. The main obligations comprise
providing the required volume of storage capacities, purchase and
maintenance of emergency stocks, and reporting emergency oil stock levels
to the relevant bodies.

6.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption
There is no legislation that regulates activities in case of oil supply disruptions.

6.10. Required Legislative Changes
Even though Republika Srpska has designed a basic legislative framework
according to the EU requirements for oil stocks it has still to include recent
changes included in the Directive 2009/119/EC in its legal acts.

The required changes of existing legal acts and additional binding legal
documents should be changed according to the following:
   •    The method of calculation of the obligatory oil stocks (90 days of
        average daily net imports) - Article 3 of the Directive; Annexes I, II
        and III of the Directive
   •    The composition of stocks is regulated in Article 9 of the Directive –
        and this should be enacted into the appropriate new law

3
  A CSE was chosen in this case as the market in BiH is small and there is less opportunity
for companies to directly partake in storage of petroleum products and efficiently allocate
costs

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                      55
26 April 2011
    •       The quantities of emergency stocks can be stored in form of crude oil
            in larger share than 40 or 50% - Article 9 of the Directive
    •       Include all other aspects stipulated in the Directive 2009/119/EC
    •       Design the legislation for the procedure in case of supply disruptions
            - Article 20 of the Directive
    •       There needs to be one CSE for the whole of BiH not separate bodies
            for stock holding within BiH’s constituent entities in order to comply
            with Directive 2009/119/EC and the Treaty.

However, BiH has to implement the complete legal framework regarding the
emergency stockholding at the state level. This includes the procedure in
case of supply disruptions.

6.11. Road Map
Firstly BiH requires a legal framework for the storage of emergency oil stocks
that complies with Directive 2009/119/EC. Secondly is the formation of a CSE
and appropriate emergency response planning and coordination procedures.
Thirdly is the construction of additional storage facilities and rehabilitation of
those which are suitable. It is suggested that BiH should undertake a careful
cost benefit analysis as to whether the CSE should own storage directly or
lease and additional capacity from other operators.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                56
26 April 2011
                                                Figure 25 Road Map Gantt Diagram, BiH




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                        57
26 April 2011
7. Croatia
Croatia has a well developed oil sector. The largest oil company is INA whose
major shareholder is MOL with 47%, whilst the state holds 44% of the shares.
INA is producing oil and gas in Croatia and abroad and produces petroleum
products in two domestic oil refineries. INA operates a regional retail network
of petrol stations in Croatia and BiH, Slovenia and Montenegro. OMV, Lukoil
and Tifon have a significant share of the Croatian retail market.

7.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand
The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position
in Croatia based on the methodology outlined in Section3.1.

                   Figure 26 Oil and Condensate Production, Croatia, 2007-2020
             900

             800

             700

             600
 x 1 000 t




             500

             400

             300

             200

             100

               0
                   2007.       2008.         2009.      2010           2015      2020
                                         Crude oil      Other condensate




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                        58
26 April 2011
                                  Figure 27 Crude Oil Import, Croatia, 2007-2020




                     Figure 28 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020

             6.000


             5.000


             4.000
 x 1 000 t




             3.000


             2.000


             1.000


                0
                         2007           2008            2009       2010            2015          2020

                      LPG                  Motor gasoline      Kerosene and jet fuel   Naphtha
                      Gas/diesel oil       Residual fuel oil   Petrol coke             Bitumen
                      Lubricants           Other




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                        59
26 April 2011
                          Figure 29 Petroleum Product Imports, Croatia, 2007-2020

             2.500


             2.000


             1.500
 x 1 000 t




             1.000


              500


                0
                        2007              2008              2009             2010           2015               2020
                               LPG                             Motor gasoline                   Kerosene and jet fuel
                               Gas/diesel oil                  Residual fuel oil                Petrol coke
                               Bitumen                         Lubricants                       Other




                          Figure 30 Petroleum Product Exports, Croatia, 2007-2020

             3.500

             3.000

             2.500
 x 1 000 t




             2.000

             1.500

             1.000

              500

                0
                        2007              2008              2009             2010           2015               2020
                     LPG                        Motor gasoline          Kerosene and jet fuel      Naphtha
                     Gas/diesel oil             Residual fuel oil       Petrol coke                Bitumen
                     Lubricants                 Other




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                        60
26 April 2011
               Figure 31 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020

             5.000
             4.500
             4.000
             3.500
 x 1 000 t




             3.000
             2.500
             2.000

             1.500
             1.000

               500
                  0
                       2007              2008            2009            2010            2015              2020
                        LPG                       Motor gasoline         Kerosene and jet fuel   Naphtha
                        Gas/diesel oil            Residual fuel oil      Petrol coke             Bitumen
                        Lubricants                Other




                      Figure 32 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Croatia, 2007-2020

             7.000

             6.000

             5.000

             4.000

             3.000
 x 1 000 t




             2.000

             1.000

                 0

             -1.000     Production                  Imports                 Exports               Consumption

             -2.000

             -3.000

             -4.000
                                           2007        2008       2009      2010       2015       2020




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                  61
26 April 2011
7.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation
The following tables give the Consultant’s calculated emergency oil stocks
obligation for Croatia based on the methodology given in Section3.2.

        Table 36 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum, Croatia, 2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe                2009         2010          2015         2020
       Crude oil                    3,886        4,258         4,730        5,209
       LPG                           -178         -197          -223         -236
       Motor gasoline                -465         -597          -632         -722
       Kerosene and jet fuel            -4           10           22            29
       Gas/diesel oil                 280          140          -221         -333
       Residual fuel oil             -288         -402           311         -113
       Petrol coke                    127          100          -456         -437
       Bitumen                        103            58          107          112
       Lubricants                       22           19           22            24
       Other                         -138         -120           -55            17
       Total                        3,343        3,269         3,605        3,551
       Daily net imports               9.2          9.0           9.9          9.7


  Table 37 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Croatia,
                                       2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe                2009         2010          2015         2020
       Crude oil                      958        1,050         1,166        1,284
       LPG                            -44          -49           -55          -58
       Motor gasoline                -115         -147          -156         -178
       Kerosene and jet fuel           -1            3             5            7
       Gas/diesel oil                  69           34           -54          -82
       Residual fuel oil              -71          -99            77          -28
       Petrol coke                     31           25          -112         -108
       Bitumen                         25           14            26           28
       Lubricants                       5            5             5            6
       Other                          -34          -30           -14            4
       Total                          824          806           889          876

         Table 38 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Croatia, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                        2009        2010        2015        2020
     Motor gasoline                        835         827         853         879
     Kerosene and jet fuel                 117         132         150         168
     Gas/diesel oil                      2,156       2,137       2,195       2,267
     Residual fuel oil                     738         687         663         212
     Total                               3,846       3,783       3,861       3,527
     Daily inland consumption             10.5        10.4        10.6          9.7

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                      62
26 April 2011
        Table 39 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Croatia, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                        2009       2010       2015        2020
     Motor gasoline                        140        138        143         147
     Kerosene and jet fuel                  20         22         25          28
     Gas/diesel oil                        360        357        367         379
     Residual fuel oil                     123        115        111          35
     Total                                 643        632        645         589


   Table 40 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports, Croatia,
                                      2010-2021

       × 1 000 toe               2010         2011          2016         2021
       Petroleum products           275          269           296          292
       Crude oil                    550          537           593          584
       Total                        824          806           889          876
       Days of net imports            90           90            90           90

Given the structure of supply and demand in Croatia, the proposed stock
holding is detailed in Table 41.

        Table 41 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Croatia, 2010-2021

       × 1 000 t                 2010         2011          2016         2021
       Motor gasoline                  55           54           60           67
       Kerosene and jet fuel            8            9           11           13
       Gas/diesel oil                 141          139          154          172
       Residual fuel oil               48           45           47           16
       Crude oil                      630          616          679          669
       Total                         882          862           951          936

On the basis of the proposed composition of compulsory stocks, the required
volume of storage at 2021 is shown in Table 42.

    Table 42 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, Croatia, 2010-2021

       m3                        2010         2011         2016          2021
       Motor gasoline             72,916       71,794       80,040        88,960
       Kerosene and jet fuel      10,113       11,267       13,860        16,794
       Gas/diesel oil            168,106      165,650      183,775       204,776
       Residual fuel oil          54,285       50,283       52,417        18,033
       Crude oil                 755,988      739,215      815,084       802,957
       Total                   1,061,407    1,038,209    1,145,176     1,131,520




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                    63
26 April 2011
7.3. Current Oil Infrastructure
This section gives an overview of the Consultant’s understanding of the
current infrastructure in Croatia.

                        Figure 33 Oil Infrastructure, Croatia




In Croatia, INA has two oil refineries located in Rijeka (Urinj) and Sisak.
The refinery at Rijeka is mid-sized and it is located on the coast, allowing
access to the port for deep-draft ships and the JANAF pipeline system. The
refinery’s location is suitable for market supply, not only to Croatia but also to
the southern parts of BiH, Slovenia, Montenegro, and other Mediterranean
countries. The Rijeka refinery annually processes 3-3.5 million tons of oil and
manufactures a certain number of petroleum products intended for the
domestic and foreign markets.

The refinery in Sisak is 50 km from Zagreb, and the Zagreb area has the
highest consumption of petroleum products in the country. The refinery’s
location is also suitable to supply other local markets in Croatia, as well as
those in north-western BiH, north-eastern Slovenia and western and northern
Serbia. The refinery processes domestic crude (produced by INA) in addition
to Russian crude oil imported through the oil pipelines Druzhba 1 and
Druzhba 2, as well as from the Mediterranean Sea by the JANAF oil pipeline.
The refinery annually processes 2.0 to 2.2 million tons of oil and manufactures
a certain number of petroleum derivates that are sold on the domestic and the
neighbouring export markets.


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                64
26 April 2011
In 2005, INA launched an extensive refinery modernisation program, which is
essential for the production of higher-quality products that meet EU
requirements and specification. Meeting EU specifications was achieved at
the end of 2010.

The JANAF oil pipeline connects the harbour at Omišalj on Krk Island and
refineries in Rijeka and Sisak in Croatia, Bosanski Brod Refinery in BiH, Novi
Sad and Pančevo Refineries in Serbia. It also extends to Hungary where it
connects to the Druzhba pipeline. The installed pipeline capacity is 20 Mt/y.

Tank storage for crude oil is located at the Rijeka and Sisak refineries and in
JANAF pipeline terminals of Omišalj and Sisak. In total, Croatia has 3.43
million m3 of storage capacities for oil and oil products.

            Table 43 Crude Oil and Semi Products Storage Capacities in Croatia

                                                                 Total capacity
     Terminal owner Location                     Product
                                                                      (m3)
                         Omišalj Terminal     Crude oil             760,000
     JANAF               Sisak Terminal       Crude oil             100,000
                         Virje                Crude oil              40,000
                                              Crude oil             336,000
                         Rijeka refinery
                                              Semi products         597,000
     INA
                                              Crude oil             310,000
                         Sisak refinery
                                              Semi products         350,830




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                  65
26 April 2011
                  Table 44 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Croatia

         Location                  Product                       Capacity (m3)
                                   Motor gasoline                  20,000
         Omišalj
                                   Diesel                          40,000
         Sisak (Refinery)          n/a                            197,280
         Rijeka (Refinery)         n/a                            190,500
                                   Motor gasoline                  10,200
         Zabok                     Diesel                          19,800
                                   Gas oil                          5,300
                                   Motor gasoline                  31,500
                                   Motor gasoline - in
                                                                    15,000
                                   construction
         Zadar (Gaženica)          Diesel                           38,000
                                   Diesel - in construction         45,000
                                   Gas oil                           3,500
                                   Fuel oil                         21,000
                                   Motor gasoline                   10,000
                                   Diesel                           28,300
         Zagreb
                                   Gas oil                          16,000
                                   n/a                              75,000
                                   Motor gasoline                    4,500
         Ploče
                                   Diesel                           19,500
                                   Motor gasoline                      500
         Sesvetski Kraljevac       Diesel                              500
                                   Gas oil                             500
                                   Motor gasoline                    5,348
         Vukovar                   Diesel                            6,934
                                   Gas oil                           1,300
         Karlovac                  Diesel                            1,000
         Osijek                    n/a                               9,500
         Opatovac                  n/a                              20,000
         Solin                     n/a                              70,000
         Varaždin                  n/a                               1,300
         Sustjepan                 n/a                                 400
         Vinkovci                  n/a                               1,300
         Beli Manastir             Diesel                            1,200
                                   Motor gasoline                      150
         Gospić
                                   Diesel and gas oil                  550
                                   Motor gasoline                    3,100
         Slavonski Brod            Diesel                            2,100
                                   Gas oil                           1,000
         Total                                                     917,062




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 66
26 April 2011
                     Table 45 LPG Storage Capacities, Croatia

                                                   Capacity
                   Location
                                                     (m3)
                   Varaždin                           180
                   Islam Latinski                     516
                   Buzet                              304
                   Sv. Križ Začretje                6,270
                   Zaprešić                           750
                   Posedarje (Brala trade)            150
                   Novigrad                           100
                   Žminj                              160
                   Labin                              120
                   Kerestinec                         180
                   Brezovica                          450
                   Pula                               600
                   Rijeka                             520
                   Osijek                             380
                   Kaštel Sućurac                     300
                   Metković                           100
                   Pićan                              200
                   Vojnić                             500
                   Omiš                               300
                   Umag                               100
                   Šibenik                            300
                   Nova Gradiška                      750
                   Drniš                              200
                   Slavonski Brod                     500
                   Zagreb                           4,749
                   Zadar                              200
                   Omišalj                            500
                   Total                           19,379

Croatia has three ports which can receive oil and oil products: Omišalj, Zadar,
and Ploče. The Port of Omišalj is located on the Island of Krk. Two tanker
berths with a sea depth of 30m may accommodate tankers up to Very Large
Crude Carrier class. Each of the berths has four unloading arms for crude oil
and two for oil products, with reloading capacity of 5,000 m3/h each, i.e.
20,000m3 of crude oil per berth per hour.

In the Gaženice area of Zadar there is a terminal for oil products.
Furthermore, there are two terminals for reception and dispatching of liquid
cargo in the Port of Ploče: "Port of Ploče Terminal" and "Oil terminals of
FBiH".




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               67
26 April 2011
7.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation
This section provides a summary of the current emergency stock holding
situation in Croatia.

                     Table 46 Emergency Stocks Held by HANDA, Croatia

                Tonnes                    31 Dec 2009        31 Jul 2010
                Crude oil                    293,176             293,043
                Motor gasoline                10,000              30,000
                Diesel                        33,000              25,000
                Jet fuel                           0                   0
                Gas oil                            0                   0
                Fuel oil                      35,000              35,000



                   Table 47 Emergency Stocks Held by the Industry, Croatia

                Tonnes                    31 Dec 2009        31 Jul 2010
                Crude oil                     42,760              48,084
                Motor gasoline                10,720              10,720
                Diesel                        23,920              23,920
                Jet fuel                         900                 900
                Gas oil                        4,752               4,752
                Fuel oil                       7,725               7,725



                     Table 48 Coverage of Days of Consumption, Croatia

                                     31 Dec 2009                   31 Jul 2010
   Days of coverage
                                 HANDA        Industry        HANDA         Industry
   Motor gasoline                  58            15             64             15
   Diesel                          33            10             26             10
   Jet fuel                        51            13             31             10
   Gas oil                         33            11             34             12
   Fuel oil                        60            11             66             11


7.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities
The stockholding agency, HANDA, and pipeline company, JANAF, have
signed an agreement to build new storage capacities for stockholding
purposes of 480,000 m3 in Omišalj and Sisak for crude oil and of 120,000 m3
for petroleum products in Zagreb. The agreement is based on “the dynamics
of establishment and restoration of compulsory oil stocks and petroleum
products, their storage organization and regional distribution” (Official Gazette
No. 149/2009). The project is already in progress. The plan is also to build two
more terminals for oil products on government land.


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   68
26 April 2011
The Republic of Croatia has recently concluded intergovernmental
agreements on storage of emergency stocks with Republic of Germany and
Republic of Hungary.

7.6. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks
This section sets out the Consultant’s opinion of what Croatia is likely to
require in terms of investment. Croatia has conducted a more in-depth review
of its capacity requirements and the figures quoted here are only an
approximate guide.

                       Table 49 Croatian Capacity Requirements

                               Volume (m3)     Capex (€)    Stock Cost (€)
           Products              367,000      88,080,000     132,172,712
           Crude                 820,000      164,000,000    287,442,938
           Total                1,187,000     252,080,000    419,615,650

Emergency oil stocks in Croatia are financed through a fee determined each
year for each of the petroleum products group (Official Gazette No. 146/2010)
as follows:

    •    for petroleum products of Group I (motor gasoline and gasoline for
         aircrafts) the fee amounts 200 HRK per ton
    •    for products of Group II (diesel, gas oil and jet fuel) the fee is 300 HRK
         per ton and
    •    for products of Group III (fuel oil) the fee is 50 HRK.

This system has worked well in meeting the Agency budget and it is already
well established.


7.7. Legal Review
The Law on Oil and Petroleum Products Market (Official Gazette No. 57/06)
and Law on Amendments of the Law on Oil and Petroleum Products Market
(Official Gazette No. 18/11) regulates compulsory oil stocks in accordance
with EU directives, establishes the Croatian Compulsory Oil Stocks Agency
(HANDA) and defines the time framework to form the compulsory oil stocks.

The quantity of stocks is calculated based on 90 day consumption in the
previous year from 31 March 2013 to 1 April 2013 based on 90 days of net
imports or 61 days of average inland consumption in previous year which of
the two is larger. Compulsory oil stocks are to be formed and fully owned by
the Agency by 31 July 2012. In the meantime stocks are partly held by the
industry and their obligation decreases every year.

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                69
26 April 2011
The statistical summaries on emergency stocks and complete copy of the
Registry will be submitted to the European Commission after Croatia joins the
European Union. The use of emergency stocks based on the decisions on
European Commission and IEA will also be possible after joining the EU.

The Ministry responsible for the oil sector is in charge of the coordination and
cooperation with the European Commission and IEA especially in the matter
or security of oil supply. Technical support to the Ministry will be provided by
HANDA. They will together represent Republic of Croatia in the expert and
advisory bodies of the European Commission and IEA.

The Statute of the Croatian Agency for Compulsory Stocks of Oil and
Petroleum Products (Official Gazette No. 6/07) determines all issues for
operational activities of the Agency. Some specific issues concerning
activities of the Agency are formulated in Regulation “on some issues relating
activities of Croatian agency for compulsory oil stocks” (Official Gazette No.
64/09).

Every year the Croatian Government gives a Decision on the quantity and
structure of compulsory oil stocks and petroleum products (for year 2010,
Official Gazette No. 41/2010) that lists the amount of each petroleum product
to be held by HANDA and energy organisations.

The Plan of providing, the dynamics of the formation and replenishment of
compulsory stocks of oil and petroleum products, storage and organization of
the regional distribution (Official Gazette No. 149/2009) gives the procedures
for securing compulsory stocks and determines the need for new capacities to
be built on specific locations.

The Decision on the compensation fee regarding the financing of Croatian
Compulsory Oil Stocks Agency for 2011 (Official Gazette No. 146/2010)
determines the level of fees for each ton of oil products (for each group of
products based on Law on Oil and Petroleum Products Market) placed on
Croatian market.

7.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System
HANDA is managed by the Governing Council appointed by the Government
based on the suggestion of the Minister of Energy. Members of the Governing
Council include one representative of the Ministry of Energy and one
representative of the Ministry responsible for finance, together with three
independent experts. Members of the Governing Council are not employees
of HANDA.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               70
26 April 2011
The Director General is responsible for the professional work and legality of
the business operations of HANDA. The Director General represents HANDA
individually and without limitations and conducts all legal actions in the name
and on behalf of HANDA.

The Director General is appointed by the General Council based on a public
contest. The Director General’s mandate lasts four years with the possibility of
re-election. The Director General is responsible to the Governing Council for
its work.

                   Figure 34 HANDA Organisation Chart, Croatia




7.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption
HANDA is an independent body that is obligated to form and manage the oil
stocks. HANDA receives reports from energy industry participants on a
weekly basis to assess the state of the oil market to be able to record any
possibility of supply disruption. It is obliged to notify any disturbance to the
Expert Commission for monitoring of regular market supply of oil and oil
products that has to be appointed by the Government based on the proposal
of the Ministry within a month from the entry into force of the Law on
Amendments of the Law on Oil and Petroleum Products Market (Official
Gazette 18/2011). The Commission would supervise a regular supply of oil
and petroleum products to the Croatian market, and proposes measures to
the Government in case of any disturbance in the oil market.

The intervention plan in case of accidental disruption to the market supply of
crude oil and petroleum products (Official Gazette No. 68/2008) establishes
procedures and criteria for identification of an extraordinary disturbance in



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               71
26 April 2011
market supply of oil and petroleum products and procedures for normalisation
of the market supply of oil and petroleum products. This includes:

    •       measures to reduce petroleum products consumption
    •       conditions for consumption
    •       renewal of compulsory stocks of oil and petroleum products

The Expert commission is responsible for the enforcement of the Intervention
plan.


7.10. Required Legislative Changes
Croatia has recently changed its legislative framework to meet the EU
requirements on oil stocks and now it completely complies with the Directive
2009/119/EC in its legal acts. The various sub-laws and regulations will follow
within a year.


7.11. Road Map
Croatia is the most advanced Beneficiary of the study in terms of compliance
with Directive 2009/119/EC. Croatia appears to have adequate tankage
capacity expansion and emergency oil stockpiling plans envisaged and should
continue with these. The organisational structure for holding, auditing and
reporting emergency stocks is in place. The Consultant has been informed
that HANDA has completed ticketing arrangements for emergency stocks to
be held in Germany and Hungary. This arrangement should be adequate to
meet Croatia’s obligation under Directive 2009/119/EC. However, the
Consultant has not seen the detail of the agreements and recommends that
Croatia keeps the Energy Community informed of the details. The
Consultant’s envisaged road map for Croatian compliance is shown in Figure
35 which allows flexibility for facilities construction or utilising the ticketing
arrangements.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               72
26 April 2011
                                              Figure 35 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Croatia




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                          73
26 April 2011
8. FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia has no domestic production of crude oil. Crude oil supply is
sent by pipeline from the Thessaloniki refinery in Greece to the OKTA refinery
which produces sufficient petroleum products for the domestic market.

8.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand
The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position
in FYR Macedonia based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.

                       Figure 36 Crude Oil Import, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

             1.600

             1.400

             1.200

             1.000
 x 1 000 t




              800

              600

              400

              200

                0
                     2007      2008       2009       2010       2015          2020




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                     74
26 April 2011
              Figure 37 Net Production of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

             1.400

             1.200

             1.000
 x 1 000 t




              800

              600

              400

              200

                   0
                          2007           2008         2009            2010           2015             2020

                        LPG      Motor gasoline   Kerosene and jet fuel      Gas/diesel oil      Residual fuel oil



                       Figure 38 Petroleum Product Imports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

             400

             350

             300

             250
 x 1 000 t




             200

             150

             100

              50

               0
                         2007            2008          2009               2010          2015              2020
                          LPG                            Motor gasoline                       Kerosene and jet fuel
                          Naphtha                        Gas/diesel oil                       Petrol coke
                          Bitumen                        Lubricants                           Other




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                      75
26 April 2011
                       Figure 39 Petroleum Product Exports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

             700

             600

             500
 x 1 000 t




             400

             300

             200

             100

               0
                         2007          2008    2009           2010     2015          2020
                          LPG                    Motor gasoline          Kerosene and jet fuel
                          Gas/diesel oil         Residual fuel oil       Petrol coke
                          Bitumen                Other



 Figure 40 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

             1.000


              800


              600
 x 1 000 t




              400


              200


                   0
                          2007          2008    2009            2010   2015          2020
                          LPG                    Motor gasoline          Kerosene and jet fuel
                          Naphtha                Gas/diesel oil          Residual fuel oil
                          Petrol coke            Bitumen                 Lubricants
                          Other




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                 76
26 April 2011
                      Figure 41 Oil Product Supply and Demands, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

             1.500



             1.000



               500
 x 1 000 t




                 0
                           Production             Import                 Export             Consumption


              -500



             -1.000
                                        2007   2008        2009   2010       2015    2020




 8.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation
The following tables give the Consultants calculated emergency oil stocks
obligation for FYR Macedonia based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.

Table 50 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2009-
                                         2020

               × 1 000 toe                        2009            2010              2015             2020
               Crude oil                             967            1,060             1,270            1,352
               LPG                                     32               20               26                37
               Motor gasoline                         -28             -75              -211             -222
               Kerosene and jet fuel                  -21             -20               -33              -35
               Gas/diesel oil                          32             -47              -252             -252
               Residual fuel oil                      -76            -164                 -6             -42
               Petrol coke                             41               62               69                85
               Bitumen                                  6                5                 8               10
               Lubricants                              10               10               11                12
               Other                                    1                1                 1                1
               Total                                 964              851               882              946
               Daily net imports                      2.6              2.3               2.4              2.6




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                77
26 April 2011
    Table 51 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, FYR
                                 Macedonia, 2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe              2009         2010           2015        2020
       Crude oil                   238          261            313         333
       LPG                            8            5              6           9
       Motor gasoline                -7          -18            -52         -55
       Kerosene and jet fuel         -5           -5             -8          -9
       Gas/diesel oil                 8          -12            -62         -62
       Residual fuel oil            -19          -41             -1         -10
       Petrol coke                   10           15             17          21
       Bitumen                        1            1              2           2
       Lubricants                     2            2              3           3
       Other                          0            0              0           0
       Total                       238          210            218         233


    Table 52 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, FYR Macedonia, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                       2009       2010        2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                       148        138         144        159
     Kerosene and jet fuel                   2          2           2          1
     Gas/diesel oil                       452        475         518        574
     Residual fuel oil                    291        221         194        160
     Total                                892        836         858        893
     Daily inland consumption              2.4        2.3         2.3        2.4


  Table 53 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, FYR Macedonia, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                      2009        2010        2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                       25          23          24         27
     Kerosene and jet fuel                 0           0           0          0
     Gas/diesel oil                       75          79          87         96
     Residual fuel oil                    49          37          32         27
     Total                               149         140         143        149

Assuming that FYR Macedonia would not make a commitment to maintain at
least 30 days of specific stocks, than at least one third of its stockholding
obligation has to be in the form of products (Table 54).




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                     78
26 April 2011
    Table 54 Stockholding Obligations According to Average Daily Net Imports, FYR
                                Macedonia, 2010-2021

       × 1 000 toe              2010         2011         2016         2021
       Petroleum products            79           70           73           78
       Crude oil                    158          140          145          155
       Total                        238          210          218          233
       Days of net imports             90           90           90           90


  Table 55 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, FYR Macedonia, 2010-2021

       × 1 000 t                2010         2011         2016         2021
       Motor gasoline                12           11           11           13
       Kerosene and jet fuel          0            0            0            0
       Gas/diesel oil                37           36           40           46
       Residual fuel oil             24           17           15           13
       Crude oil                    182          160          166          178
       Total                        254          224          233          249

On the basis of the proposed composition of compulsory stocks, the required
volume of storage until 2021 is shown in Table 56.

 Table 56 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, FYR Macedonia, 2010-
                                       2021

       m3                       2010         2011         2016         2021
       Motor gasoline            16,004       14,111       14,862       16,900
       Kerosene and jet fuel        208          182          159          126
       Gas/diesel oil            43,750       43,389       47,847       54,456
       Residual fuel oil         26,619       19,005       16,882       14,298
       Crude oil                217,892      192,324      199,533      213,802
       Total                    304,473      269,010      279,284      299,582




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                    79
26 April 2011
8.3. Current Oil Infrastructure
This section provides a summary of the Consultant’s understanding of the
current oil infrastructure within FYR Macedonia

                    Figure 42 Oil Infrastructure, FYR Macedonia




The OKTA refinery near Skopje has a nameplate capacity of 2.5 Mt/y but
operates with a low level of utilisation. The OKTA refinery produces motor
gasoline of EURO V standard, leaded motor gasoline with maximum 0.005 g/l
of lead, diesel fuel of euro IV and V quality, jet fuel, LPG, extra light fuel oil
with 1,000 ppm of sulphur, and fuel oil (80% with maximum 1% of sulphur for
domestic market and 20% with maximum 2% sulphur for the UNMIK market).
The refinery sells to FYR Macedonia, UNMIK and southern Serbia.

The refinery uses the Port of Thessaloniki for imports of crude oil via the
Vardax pipeline connecting Thessaloniki and OKTA refinery. The pipeline is
about 213 km long and has capacity of 2.5 Mt/y.

The storage capacity for oil and oil products in FYR Macedonia totals 468,420
m3. All of the storage capacity except in OKTA refinery and Štip are owned by
Makpetrol Company and amount to approximately 75,000 m3 located in
different regions throughout FYR Macedonia. The OKTA refinery also has

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                80
26 April 2011
rented crude oil storage capacities in the Port of Thessaloniki (Greece) of
195,000 m3.

FYR Macedonia has no ports and no pipelines. Oil products are imported
mostly by railroad and exported mostly by road transport.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                              81
26 April 2011
                Table 57 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, FYR Macedonia

                 Location                  Product           Capacity (m3)
                                           Crude oil          150,000
                                           Semi products       29,000
                                           LPG                  6,000
                                           Motor gasoline      48,000
                 Skopje - OKTA refinery
                                           Jet fuel             8,700
                                           Diesel              41,000
                                           Gas oil             20,300
                                           Fuel oil            79,600
                                           LPG                    500
                                           Motor gasoline         300
                 Skopje                    Jet fuel             1,020
                                           Diesel              27,800
                                           Gas oil             10,100
                                           LPG                  1,000
                 Gostivar
                                           Motor gasoline       7,500
                                           Motor gasoline         100
                 Ohrid                     Diesel                 200
                                           Gas oil                200
                                           Motor gasoline       2,050
                                           Jet fuel                50
                 Prilep
                                           Diesel                 300
                                           Gas oil                650
                                           Motor gasoline       1,000
                                           Jet fuel               150
                 Kocani
                                           Diesel               1,000
                                           Gas oil                300
                                           Motor gasoline       1,000
                 Kavadarci                 Diesel                 900
                                           Gas oil                500
                                           Motor gasoline       5,400
                 Kumanovo
                                           Gas oil              2,700
                 Veles                     Fuel oil            10,000
                                           Diesel                 100
                 Tetovo
                                           Gas oil                200
                                           LPG                    400
                                           Motor gasoline       2,600
                 Štip                      Diesel               2,600
                                           Gas oil              2,600
                                           Fuel oil             2,600
                 Total                                        468,420




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                82
26 April 2011
8.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation

Emergency oil stocks for FYR Macedonia are held in the storage capacity of
OKTA refinery and private companies. A summary of the current stock holding
is given here.

            Table 58 Emergency Stocks Held by OKTA Refinery, FYR Macedonia

                        Product                   Quantity (t)
                        Motor gasoline 95            5,662.5
                        Motor gasoline 98              906.0
                        Diesel                       6,760.0
                        Gas oil                      6,892.0
                        Fuel oil                     8,000.0
                        LPG                            202.9


                Table 59 Emergency Stocks Held by Makpetrol, FYR Macedonia

                         Product                  Quantity (t)
                         Motor gasoline 95           4,490.6
                         Motor gasoline 98             245.4
                         Diesel                     17,762.3
                         Gas oil                     7,723.3
                         Fuel oil                    3,939.4


                 Table 60 Emergency Stocks Held by Lukoil, FYR Macedonia

                         Product                  Quantity (t)
                         Motor gasoline 95            302.0
                         Motor gasoline 98            502.0
                         Diesel                       169.0
                         Gas oil                      507.0


            Table 61 Total Quantity of Emergency Stocks held in FYR Macedonia

                        Product                   Quantity (t)
                        Motor gasoline 95           10,455.1
                        Motor gasoline 98            1,653.4
                        Diesel                      24,691.3
                        Gas oil                     15,122.3
                        Fuel oil                    11,939.4
                        LPG                            202.9
                        Total                       64,064.4




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                83
26 April 2011
                Table 62 Coverage of Days of Consumption, FYR Macedonia

                       Product                Days of coverage
                       Motor gasoline               35.9
                       Gas oil                      38.6
                       Fuel oil                     18.0
                       LPG                           1.2

Petroleum products stocks are approximately equal to the calculated
quantities required to be held as emergency oil stocks. However, the overall
requirement for emergency oil stocks is not covered and the Consultant
estimates that the remaining emergency oil stocks should be made up of
approximately 180,000 tonnes of crude oil.

The target of the Government of FYR Macedonia is to have 70% reserves of
products in the country and 30% of reserves in form of tickets by the end of
2015. According to the Mid-term Programme for the Period 2010-2015, the
establishment, preservation, restoration and use of the compulsory reserves
of oil and oil derivatives, refers to:

    •    all types of motor and air gasoline
    •    all types of diesel fuel and kerosene
    •    extra light oil for household – EL 1
    •    LPG
    •    fuel oil

8.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities
In order to implement the legal commitments on basis of the Division Balance
(fuel reserve make-up), the Directorate for compulsory reserves of oil and oil
derivatives took over the reserves from the Agency for Commodity Reserves
as the competent authority in 2010. The Directorate does not possess its own
storage for petroleum products, but performs this activity by renting excise
storage owned by the licensed trade companies for storage and keeping the
compulsory reserves.

The storage in FYR Macedonia has a limited capacity to store the total
quantities of compulsory reserves that should be established in accordance to
requirements of the law for 90 days consumption. In order to overcome this,
the Directorate can build its own capacity, store the reserves in rented
capacity outside its national borders on the territory of EU member states by
concluding bilateral agreements between the FYR Macedonia and EU
member states, or hold part of the stocks in the form of tickets.


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               84
26 April 2011
8.6. Legal Review
The Law on Compulsory Reserves of Oil and Oil Derivatives (Official Gazette
No. 84/08) regulates the formation, storing, renewal and use of the obligatory
reserves of oil and oil derivates, the jurisdiction of the Directorate for
compulsory reserves of oil and oil derivatives and other issues of significance
for the obligatory reserves of oil and petroleum products. This Law
harmonised the FYR Macedonia legislation with EU Council Directive
2006/67/EC.

In order to enhance the security of supply in the field of oil stocks, the Mid-
term Programme for establishment of compulsory reserves of oil and oil
derivatives, construction, maintenance and buying of storage capacities 2010-
2015 has been adopted by the Government. The Programme was prepared
by the Directorate according to the Article 4 of the Law on compulsory
reserves of oil and oil derivatives.

The overall aim of the Programme is ensuring the security of supply of oil
derivatives, where the total quantities of mandatory reserves for each type of
oil derivative should reach coverage of realised average daily consumption of
that oil derivative for a period of 90 days in the previous calendar year (or
25% of the total realised consumption of the relevant type of oil derivative in
the previous calendar year). The indicators for the realised average daily
consumption of oil derivatives in 2009, for each derivative separately are
applied for preparation of the emergency oil stocks management programme.
According to the Mid-term Programme, in the 5 year period, the following will
be settled:

    •    The type, quantity and value of oil derivatives
    •    The manner of storage and renewal and costs for storage and renewal
         of compulsory oil and oil derivatives reserves
    •    The funds needed for financing the Mid-term Programme

The Directorate for Compulsory Reserves of Oil and Oil Derivatives makes
agreements with authorised trading and storage companies that possess a
licence for storing oil or petroleum products and pursuant to the Law are
obliged to store the compulsory reserves.

Pursuant to the Decree for Determining the Amount of the Compensation for
Storage and Evaporation of the Compulsory Reserves of Oil Derivates
(Official Gazette No. 44/2010), the companies that are obliged to store oil
derivatives from the compulsory reserves are authorized to use oil derivatives
for their own needs up to 30% per derivative, in the current calendar year.
Companies have an obligation for the entire quantities of the oil derivatives
used in this respect, to restock the compulsory reserves by 31 December
each year. Income that companies realise from such use of the compulsory

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                             85
26 April 2011
reserves is considered as payment of the compensation for storage, keeping,
renewal and evaporation of oil derivatives from the compulsory reserves, by
the Directorate.

The Decree on the method for determining, calculating and payment of the
amount of compensation for the compulsory reserves of oil and oil products
that are payable on imports and / or production of oil products (Official
Gazette No. 138/09) defines the method of fee calculation for compulsory
reserves as that which is payable by the importers and producers of
petroleum products for products sold on the FYR Macedonia market.

The Directorate is authorised to perform inspection of the compulsory
reserves which are stored in the tankage of the licensed trade companies.
Inspection shall be performed on the basis of Directorate’s internal procedure
in the form of mandatory controls.

8.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks
The financing of the oil stocks is set by the Law on Compulsory Reserves of
Oil and Oil Derivatives and shall be provided by the following:

         •      fee for mandatory reserves of oil and oil derivatives paid during both
                import of oil derivatives and production of oil derivatives
         •      funds realized on the basis of international cooperation of
                programmes and projects
         •      donations from domestic and foreign legal entities and natural
                persons
         •      foundations and gifts
         •      other sources

These funds shall represent income of the Directorate for compulsory
reserves of oil and oil derivatives and are to be paid into a separate account,
held with the treasury.

The Decree on the method for determining, calculating, and payment of the
amount of compensation for the compulsory reserves of oil and oil products
that are payable on imports and / or production of oil products (Official
Gazette No.138/09) are set as follows:

    •    light distillates or light oil products (liquid petroleum gas LPG -
         butane, propane and butane – propane mixtures, all types of
         motor gasoline and gasoline for aviation) - 0.89 MKD/litre
    •    high or middle distillates petroleum products (all types of vehicle
         diesel, gas oil or extra light heating oil and kerosene) - 0.30
         MKD/litre
    •    heavy distillates and heavy oil products (all types) - 0.74 MKD/kg

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   86
26 April 2011
The fee is paid by the importers and producers of oil derivatives so it is
included in the retail price of petroleum products.

The total obligation of emergency stocks to be held in the period of 2011-2021
(Table 54) increases and amounts to 233,000 toe in 2021. According to the
proposed structure of compulsory stocks, it is necessary to have 106,000 m3
of storage for petroleum products, and 215,000 m3 for crude oil by 2020
(Table 56). It is estimated that in FYR Macedonia, there are about 77,000 m3
of storage capacity available for oil products. Accordingly, it is necessary to
build additional 29,000 m3 of storage capacity for oil products and 215,000 m3
for crude oil (Table 63). Total investment in construction of new storage
capacities is estimated at €50 million.

       Table 63 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, FYR
                                Macedonia, 2010-2021


                                           Construction
                                          m3           €
                     Oil products         29,000   6,960,000
                     Crude oil           215,000 43,000,000
                     Total               244,000 49,960,000

In accordance with the calculated total obligation up to 2021 FYR Macedonia
needs to invest in the purchase of petroleum products and crude oil in amount
of €79.8 million (Table 64).

   Table 64 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Products Purchase, FYR Macedonia,
                                     2010-2020


                                        Tonnes         €
                     Oil products          7,175    3,287,403
                     Crude oil           178,097   76,537,138
                     Total               185,272   79,824,541

The realisation of the Mid-term Programme requires having 70% of the
stockholding obligation in FYR Macedonia and provision for the remaining
30% by tickets in other countries. Until the end of 2015 the required
investments could be covered by the average fee paid by the importers and
manufacturers of petroleum products per litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel
oil and LPG placed on the market amounting to 0,020 €/l. After achievement
of 90 days stockholding obligation fee would decrease because it would only
include costs of storage ticketing and operational costs of FYR Macedonia
based storage.

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                87
26 April 2011
Figure 43 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in FYR Macedonia, 2012-
                                      2020



             300
                                        Crude oil     Products     Tickets
             250


             200
 x 1 000 t




             150


             100


              50


              0
                   2011   2012   2013   2014        2015    2016     2017    2018   2019   2020




On the other hand, if FYR Macedonia chooses to meet its whole obligation in
its own territory until the end of 2015 in physical stocks the average fee paid
by the importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per each litre of
gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market would
amount to 0.033 €/l.

8.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System
Pursuant to the Law, the Directorate for compulsory reserves of oil and oil
derivatives was established as a separate independent entity which is
responsible for establishment, stocking, renewal and management of
compulsory reserves of oil and oil derivatives. The Directorate for compulsory
reserves of oil and oil derivatives has the following organisational structure:




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                  88
26 April 2011
      Figure 44 Organisation of Directorate for Compulsory Reserves of Oil and Oil
                              Derivatives, FYR Macedonia




The Directorate is led by the Director who is appointed by the Government of
the FYR Macedonia. The Director is appointed with a mandate of 4 years with
possibility for repeated selection. Along with the Director, the Directorate is
managed by the Management Board composed of 7 members. The members
of the Management Board of the Directorate are appointed by the
Government of the FYR Macedonia.

8.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption
The procedure in case of oil and petroleum products supply disruption is
stipulated under the Energy Law (Official Gazette No. 63/06, 36/07, 106/08
and 115/10). In the case of disruption of the energy system the Government
shall, upon proposal of the Ministry, announce the criteria and requirements
for a declaration of crisis, as well as the manner of supply of certain types of
energy in such circumstances, the rights and obligations of the license holders
regarding the pursuing of energy activities pursuant to the Law on Crisis
Management (Official Gazette No. 29/05).

The Rulebook on the conditions and manner and procedure for issuing,
changing, extension of licenses (Official Gazette No. 31/09) for practicing
energy entities determines that the License contains requirements on the
supply of practicing the activity under special conditions such as force
majeure, change of conditions on the world market, extraordinary events and
a conflict situation. It also requires that the annual report that each licensee



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                     89
26 April 2011
has to submit to the Energy Regulatory Commission includes information on
supply measures when these in these special conditions arise.

8.10. Required Legislative Changes
FYR Macedonia has a legislative framework according to the EU
requirements on the oil stocks but it has to include recent changes in Directive
2009/119/EC in its legal acts.

These changes regard to:
   •   The method of calculation of the obligatory oil stocks (90 days of
       average daily net imports) - Article 3 of the Directive; Annexes I, II
       and III of the Directive
   •   There is an obligation to submit statistical summaries of the level of
       emergency stocks on a regular bases for each month - Article 12 and
       Annex IV of the Directive 2009/119/EC
   •   There is an obligation to submit statistical summaries of the level of
       commercial stocks on a regular bases for each month - Article 14 of
       the Directive 2009/119/EC
   •   Biofuels can be taken into account when calculating stockholding
       obligation - Article 16 of the Directive 2009/119/EC
   •   The procedure in case of supply disruptions are to be refined to
       include the Commission and IEA to the process - Article 20 of the
       Directive 2009/119/EC

8.11. Road Map
FYR Macedonia has in place what the Consultant regards as adequate
organisational structures for monitoring and reporting the level of stocks. In
terms of the legal aspects, the Law on Compulsory Reserves of Oil and Oil
Derivatives (Official Gazette No. 84/08) should be amended in order to
comply with Directive 2009/119/EC. The Consultant believes the legislative
changes should be minor and passed relatively quickly.

The infrastructure demands should be achievable within the required time
frame. The use of external storage ticketing does significantly reduce the
capital cost and allows for a concentration of storage of petroleum products
nearer to where they would be required within FYR Macedonia. What may
take longer is negotiating storage by ticketing arrangements within other
countries.

To facilitate stocks being held in other countries, there needs to be strong and
binding agreements between the countries that hold the emergency stocks
and the country owner of those stocks and also the stockholding entities
relevant economic entities. It is the Consultant’s conclusion that agreements
would have to cover the following as a minimum to comply with Directive
2009/119/EC:

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 90
26 April 2011
    •    Title at Country Level
    •    Title at Central Stock Holding Entity / Storage Provider Level
    •    Rights of access at the country level
    •    Rights of access at the CSE / Storage Provider level
    •    Provisions for drawdown of emergency stocks
    •    All the above must apply when both countries are undergoing a period
         of supply interruption

FYR Macedonia might find these agreements difficult to conclude to a
satisfactory level within the timeframe. The Consultants envisaged time frame
is set out in Figure 45 and further discussion is given to region cooperation is
given in Section 16.

Whilst FYR Macedonia does not have any intention to have the CSE body
owning any facilities, the Consultant recommends that negotiations are
opened promptly and FYR Macedonia keeps an open mind in terms of
facilities construction and possible joint ownership if this is cost effective.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                  91
26 April 2011
                                          Figure 45 Road Map Gantt Diagram, FYR Macedonia




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                            92
26 April 2011
9. Moldova
Moldova is currently establishing its reporting of the oil market and as such
this section is limited but all information made available is presented here with
the Consultant’s analysis.

9.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand
The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position
in Moldova based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.

                                Figure 46 Crude Oil Production, Moldova, 2007-2020

                   16

                   14

                   12

                   10
       x 1 000 t




                    8

                    6

                    4

                    2

                    0
                             2007           2008           2010            2015        2020




                        Figure 47 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-2020

                   14


                   12


                   10
   x 1 000 t




                    8


                    6


                    4


                    2


                    0
                             2007          2008            2010           2015         2020
                                          Gas/diesel oil           Residual fuel oil




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                              93
26 April 2011
                               Figure 48 Petroleum Product Imports, Moldova, 2007-2020

                 1.200


                 1.000


                  800
    x 1 000 t




                  600


                  400


                  200


                    0
                                  2007            2008             2010                 2015                 2020

                            LPG                   Motor gasoline          Kerosene and jet fuel     Gas/diesel oil

                            Residual fuel oil     Bitumen                 Lubricants                Other




                Figure 49 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-2020

                1.200


                1.000


                  800
    x 1 000 t




                  600


                  400


                  200


                    0
                                2007             2008              2010                 2015                 2020
                         LPG                    Motor gasoline       Kerosene and jet fuel        Gas/diesel oil
                         Residual fuel oil      Bitumen              Lubricants                   Other




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                     94
26 April 2011
                        Figure 50 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Moldova, 2007-2020

                1.200


                1.000


                 800


                 600
    x 1 000 t




                 400


                 200


                   0
                           Production            Import             Export               Consumption
                -200

                                        2007     2008     2010          2015      2020




9.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation
The following tables give the Consultant’s calculated emergency oil stocks
obligation for Moldova based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.

 Table 65 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2008-2020

                × 1 000 toe                    2008       2010                 2015         2020
                Crude oil                             0             0                0               0
                LPG                                  69           64                84            105
                Motor gasoline                     232           233              271             313
                Kerosene and jet fuel                26           22                28             33
                Gas/diesel oil                     403           415              500             593
                Residual fuel oil                     9           16                18             20
                Petrol coke                           0             0                0               0
                Bitumen                              23           32                48             63
                Lubricants                           10           13                16             19
                Other                                 3             1                1               1
                Total                              774           797              966           1,146
                Daily net imports                   2.1           2.2              2.6             3.1




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                         95
26 April 2011
 Table 66 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Moldova,
                                      2008-2020

       × 1 000 toe               2008          2010            2015          2020
       Crude oil                       0            0               0             0
       LPG                            17           16              21            26
       Motor gasoline                 57           58              67            77
       Kerosene and jet fuel           6            6               7             8
       Gas/diesel oil                 99          102             123           146
       Residual fuel oil               2            4               4             5
       Petrol coke                     0            0               0             0
       Bitumen                         6            8              12            15
       Lubricants                      2            3               4             5
       Other                           1            0               0             0
       Total                         191          197             238           283



        Table 67 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Moldova, 2008-2020

     × 1 000 toe                        2008       2010          2015         2020
     Motor gasoline                        250          263           306         353
     Kerosene and jet fuel                  22           25             31          38
     Gas/diesel oil                        443          474           570         674
     Residual fuel oil                      20           27             28          31
     Total                                 734          789           935       1,095
     Daily inland consumption              2.0           2.2           2.6         3.0



       Table 68 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Moldova, 2008-2020

     × 1 000 toe                        2008      2010           2015         2020
     Motor gasoline                         42           44            51            59
     Kerosene and jet fuel                   4            4             5             6
     Gas/diesel oil                         74           79            95           113
     Residual fuel oil                       3            4             5             5
     Total                                 123          132           156           183



Given the fact that Moldova has negligible refinery capacity, it was assumed
that the total of their stockholding obligation would be in the form of products
(Table 69).




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                          96
26 April 2011
 Table 69 Stockholding Obligations According to Average Daily Net Imports, Moldova,
                                     2009-2021

       × 1 000 toe              2009        2011         2016         2021
       Petroleum products           191          197          238          283
       Crude oil                      0            0            0            0
       Total                        191          197          238          283
       Days of net imports             90          90           90           90


       Table 70 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Moldova, 2009-2021

       × 1 000 t                2009        2011         2016         2021
       Motor gasoline                59           60           71           83
       Kerosene and jet fuel          5            6            7            9
       Gas/diesel oil               106          108          133          159
       Residual fuel oil              5            6            7            7
       Crude oil                      0            0            0            0
       Total                        175          180          218          259


On the basis of proposed composition of compulsory stocks, the required
volume of storage until 2021 is given in Table 71.

   Table 71 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, Moldova, 2009-2021

       m3                       2009        2011         2016         2021
       Motor gasoline            79,304      80,113       95,150      111,298
       Kerosene and jet fuel      6,773       7,577        9,652       11,749
       Gas/diesel oil           125,615     128,955      158,298      189,811
       Residual fuel oil          5,462       6,813        7,398        8,158
       Crude oil                      0           0            0            0
       Total                    217,153     223,458      270,498      321,016




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   97
26 April 2011
 9.3. Current Oil Infrastructure
This section gives a summary of what the Consultant understands to be the
current oil infrastructure within Moldova.

                        Figure 51 Oil Infrastructure, Moldova




The only port on the Danube River is the Giurgiulesti International Free Port
(GIFP) in the southernmost part of Moldova. It consists of a petroleum
terminal, a cargo port and an industrial free zone. Due to its location on the
Lower Danube with available water depths of up to 7m, GIFP is capable of
receiving both inland and sea going vessels with a loading capacity of 10,000
tons. The Port has road and rail links.

The maximum transhipment capacity is in excess of 2 million tonnes per year.
At the Giurgiulesti terminal there are eight tanks for petroleum products with
capacities from 4,200 to 12,000 m3 totalling 63,600 m3. The port operator and
owner is ICS Danube Logistics SRL.

The current petroleum products storage capacity is over 150,000 tons
including state and industry storage capacity but excluding the army’s
capacity. Detailed data about current storage capacities is not available.

The oil refinery in Komrat began operation in 2005 and it is the first refinery in
the country. The refinery has a processing capacity of 600 bbl/d (30,000
tons/year) and processes crude oil extracted from a field in the southern
region of Valeni, one of the country’s two oil fields.


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                98
26 April 2011
There are no oil pipelines in Moldova.

9.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation
According to available data at the time there are no emergency oil and
petroleum products reserves in Moldova.

9.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities
As Moldova has got very limited storage capacities it should consider building
required storage capacities or arrange bilateral agreement with the
neighbouring country/countries for holding required quantities of stocks.

In the case of Moldova building its own storage, the required capacity is about
327,000 m3 for compliance in 2021.

9.6. Legal Review
According to available data there is no particular legislation dealing with
emergency oil stocks.

According to the current legislation, the industry does not have any legal
obligation to maintain petroleum stocks. For their own business purposes,
however, they keep stocks in the tankage of importers and petrol stations.
Currently Moldova’s industry keeps stocks of around 30 days consumption of
the main petroleum products (gasoline, diesel and LPG).

9.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks
Total obligation of emergency stocks to be held in the period of 2011-2021
(Table 69) is estimated to increase to 283,000 toe by 2021. According to the
proposed structure of compulsory stocks it is necessary to ensure 327,000 m3
of storage for petroleum products by 2020. It is estimated that in Moldova,
there is currently no storage capacity available for emergency stocks. Total
investment in construction of new storage capacities is estimated at €78.5
million (Table 72).

    Table 72 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage Capacities
                          Construction, Moldova, 2010-2020

                                           Construction
                                          m3          €
                     Oil products        327,000 78,480,000

In accordance with the calculated total obligation to 2021, Moldova needs to
purchase petroleum products costing €130.6 million (Table 73).



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   99
26 April 2011
  Table 73 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Products Purchase, Moldova, 2010-2020

                                            Tonnes        €
                         Oil products        259,104 130,619,255

 In order to finance emergency stocks formation in Moldova, the Consultant
 recommends collection of fee paid by the producers and importers of
 petroleum products. The expenses of stockholding system would be
 transferred to retail price of motor fuels. An appropriate body should be
 responsible for collection of the fee.

 The requirement for the construction of new the facilities (Table 74) and the
 formation or acquisition of stocks were defined for the purpose of calculating
 the compensation to be paid by importers and producers of petroleum
 products per each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG sold on
 the Moldova market. The proposed scenario results in costs that include
 investments in storage facilities, procurement of petroleum products
 inventories, and renewal of stocks as well as operational costs of the system
 (Table 75).

 The defined emergency oil stock formation scenario (Figure 52) and given the
 forecast consumption of petroleum products in Moldova, the average fee paid
 by the importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per each litre of
 gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG sold would amount to 0.022 €/l.
 Such fee ensures the formation of 90-day supplies of petroleum products by
 the year 2020 in Moldova.

                 Table 74 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Moldova, 2010-2020

            m3                 2012       2014      2016      2018      2020
            Oil products       60,000     80,000    60,000    60,000    67,000



 Table 75 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and
                       Operational Costs), Moldova, 2010-2020

× 1 000 €         2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Oil products         0 39,510 912 53,592 2,128 41,638 3,040 42,550 3,952 48,071




 Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 100
 26 April 2011
 Figure 52 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Moldova, 2012-2020

             300
                                        Oil products
             250


             200
 x 1 000 t




             150


             100


             50


              0
                   2011   2012   2013     2014         2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020




9.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System
Moldova should consider the best way of organising the oil stocks system and
according to that formation of a relevant body that manage oil stocks. This
could be an independent newly formed body or a body in existing
governmental structure.

9.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption
There is no information on the legal framework for cases of supply disruptions
in Moldova.

Moldova should create a legal framework and decision structure in case of oil
supply disruption in conformity to its laws and propositions of Article 20 of the
Directive 2009/119/EC.

9.10. Required Legislative Changes
Moldova should design complete legal framework regarding the emergency oil
stocks in compliance with the Directive 2009/119/EC.

9.11. Road Map
In the Consultant’s opinion, Moldova needs to develop a complete system for
emergency oil stocks storage and an envisaged timeline is presented below.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                 101
26 April 2011
                                             Figure 53 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Moldova




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                         102
26 April 2011
10. Montenegro
Montenegro is a net importer of petroleum products. Most of the products are
imported from Greece as the largest oil company Jugopetrol is owned by
Hellenic Petroleum. Jugopetrol owns almost half of the petrol stations in
Montenegro as well as a few stations in BiH and large storage capacities in
the Port of Bar.

10.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand
The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position
in Montenegro based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.

                        Figure 54 Petroleum Product Imports, Montenegro, 2007-2020

                600


                500


                400
    x 1 000 t




                300


                200


                100


                  0
                            2007          2008         2009      2010           2015            2020
                      LPG                   Motor gasoline    Kerosene and jet fuel   Gas/diesel oil
                      Residual fuel oil     Petrol coke       Bitumen                 Lubricants




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                       103
26 April 2011
             Figure 55 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Montenegro, 2007-2020

             600



             500



             400
 x 1 000 t




             300



             200



             100



               0
                     2007              2008             2009            2010               2015             2020
                       LPG                    Motor gasoline       Kerosene and jet fuel   Gas/diesel oil
                       Residual fuel oil      Petrol coke          Bitumen                 Lubricants




                   Figure 56 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Montenegro, 2007-2020

             600


             500


             400
 x 1 000 t




             300


             200


             100


               0
                      Production                   Import                      Export                  Consumption

                                      2007      2008        2009    2010         2015       2020




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                     104
26 April 2011
10.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation
The following tables give the Consultants calculated emergency oil stocks
obligation for Montenegro based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.

  Table 76 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Montenegro 2009-
                                         2020

       × 1 000 toe               2009         2010          2015         2020
       Crude oil                        0            0             0            0
       LPG                             16           18           22            24
       Motor gasoline                  69           72           75            76
       Kerosene and jet fuel            0            0             1            1
       Gas/diesel oil                193          205           238          277
       Residual fuel oil               54           80           92          101
       Petrol coke                     17           35           46            47
       Bitumen                          3           16           36            35
       Lubricants                       1            1             1            1
       Other                            0            0             0            0
       Total                         353          426           511          562
       Daily net imports              1.0          1.2           1.4          1.5


       Table 77 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products,
                                 Montenegro, 2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe               2009         2010          2015         2020
       Crude oil                         0          0             0            0
       LPG                               4          4             5            6
       Motor gasoline                   17         18            19           19
       Kerosene and jet fuel             0          0             0            0
       Gas/diesel oil                   48         50            59           68
       Residual fuel oil                13         20            23           25
       Petrol coke                       4          9            11           12
       Bitumen                           1          4             9            9
       Lubricants                        0          0             0            0
       Other                             0          0             0            0
       Total                            87        105           126          139




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                    105
26 April 2011
      Table 78 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Montenegro, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                        2009       2010        2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                         78          81         85          86
     Kerosene and jet fuel                    0          0           1          2
     Gas/diesel oil                        217        231         268        312
     Residual fuel oil                      61          90        103        113
     Total                                 357        401         457        513
     Daily inland consumption               1.0        1.1         1.3        1.4


     Table 79 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Montenegro, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                        2009      2010         2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                         13        13           14         14
     Kerosene and jet fuel                   0         0            0          0
     Gas/diesel oil                         36        39           45         52
     Residual fuel oil                      10        15           17         19
     Total                                  60        67           76         86

Given the fact that Montenegro has no indigenous capacity for processing
crude oil, it was assumed that the total of its stockholding obligation would be
in the form of oil products (Table 80).

       Table 80 Stockholding Obligations According to Average Daily Net Imports,
                               Montenegro, 2010-2021

       × 1 000 toe               2010         2011           2016        2021
       Petroleum products               87       105            126         139
       Crude oil                         0          0              0           0
       Total                            87       105            126         139
       Days of net imports              90         90             90          90


     Table 81 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Montenegro, 2010-2021

       × 1 000 t                 2010         2011           2016        2021
       Motor gasoline                   17           19          21          21
       Kerosene and jet fuel             0            0           0           0
       Gas/diesel oil                   49           55          68          77
       Residual fuel oil                14           22          26          28
       Crude oil                         0            0           0           0
       Total                            80           96         116         127

On the basis of proposed composition of compulsory stocks, the required
volume of storage to 2021 is shown in Table 82.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                    106
26 April 2011
 Table 82 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, Montenegro, 2010-2021

       m3                        2010         2011          2016      2021
       Motor gasoline             23,279       25,843        28,538    28,317
       Kerosene and jet fuel         106          189           399       548
       Gas/diesel oil             57,782       65,900        80,629    92,150
       Residual fuel oil          15,402       24,187        29,329    31,549
       Crude oil                       0            0             0         0
       Total                      96,569      116,120       138,895   152,565

10.3. Current Oil Infrastructure
This section provides a summary of the Consultant’s understanding of the oil
infrastructure within Montenegro.

                        Figure 57 Oil Infrastructure, Montenegro




There are no pipelines or refineries in Montenegro.

The total storage capacity is around 212,000 tons. Most storage facilities are
located in three locations: Port of Bar, Lipci on the coast at Boka Kotorska
Bay and Bijelo Polje in the northeast of Montenegro.



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                107
26 April 2011
                Table 83 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Montenegro

            Location                  Product                  Capacity (m3)
                                      Motor gasoline             51,570
            Bar
                                      Diesel and fuel oil        76,200
                                      Motor gasoline             14,900
            Lipci
                                      Diesel                      7,600
                                      Motor gasoline              6,500
            Bijelo Polje              Diesel                     20,700
                                      n/a                       21,000*
            Airport Tivat             Jet fuel                    7,860
            Airport Podgorica         Jet fuel                      410
            Nikšić                    n/a                         5,800
            Podgorica                 LPG                           310
            Total                                               212,850
           *military storage

About 10% of imported petroleum products are transported by road and the
rest by tankers to the sea port of Bar.

The Port of Bar can accept large ships and tankers. The terminal for
petroleum products in the port of Bar is comprised of two parts, old and new.
The old berth is designed to receive ships up to 5,000 dwt while the new berth
is designed for vessels up to 80,000 dwt. The new berth with three marine
loading arms of 200 mm diameter with manual controls is today mainly used
for unloading, due to market demands and size of tankers to deliver oil
products. The old berth is only used for unloading of smaller ships and
pleasure craft.

10.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation
Currently there are no strategic reserves of petroleum products or crude oil in
Montenegro.

10.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities
Montenegro Bonus is a company formed by the Government of Montenegro.
It operates storage for oil and oil products, general cargo and pharmaceutical
products. There is potentially 67,000 m3 of tankage for oil products in three
locations which could be utilised for emergency oil stocks. All three storage
facilities need modernisation in order to comply with EU standards. Two of the
three Montenegro Bonus oil product storage facilities are involved in a legal
dispute but it is expected to be resolved in favour of Montenegro Bonus. It is
therefore presumed that all Montenegro Bonus oil products tankage are going
to be used to store emergency stocks, although legal issues might slow down
the process of modernisation and use for emergency stockholding purposes.
The rest of the stocks are presumed to be stored in leased storages of



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               108
26 April 2011
companies active within the Montenegro market. Up to 2020, additional
storage capacity of ~39,000 m3 will be required.

10.6. Legal Review
The new Energy Law approved by Parliament on 22 April 2010 (Official
Gazette No. 01-70/25) requires that strategic reserves of oil and petroleum
products are equal to 90 days of average domestic consumption in the
previous year. Management of strategic reserves is a public service which is
to be carried out by a legal person established by the government. A fee for
establishing, maintenance, and management of strategic reserves will be
charged in accordance with a Government Regulation. Strategic reserves of
oil and petroleum products may be stored in Montenegro or in other countries.
A Decree on strategic reserves of oil products that will define the requirement
of 90 days coverage is in the process of adoption by the Government. It will
define the manner of formation, maintenance and management of strategic
stocks of oil and oil products.

Strategic reserves of oil and petroleum products shall be ensured by legal
persons selling to their customers at least 25 tonnes of crude oil or petroleum
products in a previous year, and by new market participants, whose obligation
is calculated on the basis of an estimate of sales in the first year of business
operation, which shall be at least 50 tonnes of crude oil or petroleum
products. According to Article 10 in the proposed Decree importers are
required to provide the strategic reserves until 31 December 2021. The
reserves are supposed to provide 10% per year of 90 days of average yearly
consumption in Montenegro, starting from 31 December 2011.

The secondary legislation in place includes a rulebook concerning Licenses in
the Energy Sector of Montenegro of 2004, amended in 2009 on commercial
transport, storage and distribution, sale and supply of petroleum products.

10.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks
Energy Law Article 174 stipulates that for legal persons that sold to their
customers at least 25 tonnes of crude oil or petroleum products in a previous
year (for new market participants, the obligation is calculated on the basis of
estimate of sale in the first year of business operation, which shall be at least
50 tonnes of crude oil or petroleum products) shall pay a charge for
establishing, maintenance, and management of strategic reserves in
accordance with the Government's regulation.

All financial aspects of oil stocks will be stipulated by the new Regulation on
strategic oil stocks with the possibility of some supplementary legislation.

The total obligation of emergency stocks to be held in the period 2011-2021
(Table 80) increases and amounts to 139,000 toe in 2021. According to the


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                              109
26 April 2011
proposed structure of compulsory stocks it is necessary to ensure 161,000 m3
of storage for petroleum products by 2020. It is estimated that in Montenegro,
there are about 122,200 m3 of storage capacity available for oil products.
Accordingly, it is necessary to build an additional 38,800 m3 of storage
capacity for oil products (Table 84). Total investment in construction of new
storage capacities and modernization of existing facilities is estimated at
€15.8 million.

  Table 84 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Montenegro,
                                    2010-2020

                                   Construction               Modernisation
                                  m3           €              m3          €
         Oil products             38,800   9,312,000          67,200 6,451,200

In accordance to the calculated total obligation up to 2021 Montenegro needs
to invest in the purchase of petroleum products costing €59.6 million (Table
85).

     Table 85 Needed Investment in Oil Products Purchase, Montenegro, 2010-2020

                                             Tonnes          €
                          Oil products        127,140    59,612,701

In order to raise finance for emergency stocks formation in Montenegro, the
Consultant recommends collection of fee paid by the producers and importers
of petroleum products. As the petroleum products price is government
regulated the cost of the stockholding system would be included in the retail
price of motor fuels. The liable body should be responsible for collection of
fees.

The scenario of modernization of existing storage capacity (Table 86),
construction of new facilities (Table 87) and the formation or acquisition of
stocks were defined for the purpose of calculating the compensation to be
paid by importers and producers of petroleum products per each litre of
gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market of
Montenegro. This results in costs that include investments in storage facilities,
procurement of petroleum products and crude oil inventories, renewal of
stocks as well as operational costs of the entire system (Table 88).

                Table 86 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, Montenegro, 2010-2020

            m3                   2012      2014      2016       2018       2020
            Oil products          27,200   17,500    22,500            0          0




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                      110
26 April 2011
                      Table 87 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Montenegro, 2010-2020
                   3
                  m                   2012         2014           2016          2018     2020
                  Oil products               0              0            0      20,000   18,800


Table 88 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and
                    Operational Costs), Montenegro, 2010-2020

 × 1000 €                  2011 2012      2013 2014             2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
 Oil products                 0 13,227     413 16,730            983 25,586 1,857 14,463 2,161 12,990

With the defined scenario of emergency oil stocks formation (Figure 58) and
forecast consumption of petroleum products in Montenegro, the average fee
paid by the importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per each litre
of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market would
amount to 0.018 €/l. Such a fee ensures the formation of 90-day supplies of
oil and petroleum products by the year 2020 in Montenegro.

     Figure 58 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Montenegro, 2011-
                                          2020

            160
                                                 Products
            140

            120

            100
 x 1000 t




            80

            60

            40

            20

             0
                  2011      2012   2013   2014      2015        2016     2017     2018   2019     2020




10.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System
Management of strategic reserves is a public service which shall be carried
out by a legal person established by the Government pursuant to the Energy
Law. The Government would impose responsibility for managing oil stocks to
an existing legal body or it would form a new body/agency that would perform
that task.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                         111
26 April 2011
10.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption
The Law on Emergency Procurement (Official Gazette No. 069/03-29)
regulates the procedure in the continuance of supply of the Montenegrin
market with the products which are necessary for satisfying the basic needs of
the population in conditions of serious market disruption that include natural
disasters, direct conflict threat, blockade of Montenegro’s borders and other
similar reasons that cannot be predicted.

The Government of Montenegro has adopted a plan for emergency
procurement in conditions of serious market disturbances. The plan includes:
directives, measures, actions, type, quantity and value of merchandise, as
well as supply agent per municipality. Financial means for implementation of
the plan are provided by the Ministry of Finance from the budgetary reserves
upon prior consent of the Government.

10.10.          Required Legislative Changes
The Energy Law provides general propositions of strategic stocks and
according to that Montenegrin Government should bring sub-laws on
emergency oil stocks which should comply with all propositions of Directive
2009/119/EC. Moreover, the method of calculation of the obligatory oil stocks
in Energy Law should be changed to 90 days of average daily net imports
according to Article 3 of the Directive and Annexes I, II and III.

10.11.          Road Map
Montenegro is progressing towards compliance with Directive 2009/119/EC
and should continue along this path. Priority must be given to developing a
suitable CSE body to oversee the build up, maintenance and reporting of
emergency oil stocks. The Consultant’s envisaged timeline is given in Figure
59.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                          112
26 April 2011
                                            Figure 59 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Montenegro




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                           113
26 April 2011
11. Serbia
The Serbian oil industry comprises of a large vertically integrated company
(NIS) and several international and private companies. Russian Gazprom-Neft
acquired 51% of NIS shares in 2008. NIS is the only company in Serbia with
integrated exploitation, processing and sale of petroleum and petroleum
products and natural gas exploitation, thus playing an important role in
maintaining Serbia’s energy security. It supplies about 75% of the Serbian oil
market. NIS exports motor fuel, benzene, toluene, construction and industrial
bitumen to the EU, Ukraine, Croatia, Montenegro and BiH.

11.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand
The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position
in Serbia based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.

                      Figure 60 Oil and Condensate Production, Serbia, 2007-2020

              1.600

              1.400

              1.200

              1.000
  x 1 000 t




               800

               600

               400

               200

                 0
                       2007        2008           2009       2010            2015   2020
                                      Crude oil     LPG   Other condensate




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                           114
26 April 2011
                                   Figure 61 Crude Oil Imports, Serbia, 2007-2020

              5.000

              4.500

              4.000

              3.500

              3.000
  x 1 000 t




              2.500

              2.000

              1.500

              1.000

               500

                  0
                          2007                 2008   2009            2010     2015            2020
                                                          Crude oil




                      Figure 62 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020

              6.000


              5.000


              4.000
 x 1 000 t




              3.000


              2.000


              1.000


                 0
                          2007                 2008   2009            2010    2015           2020
                                 LPG                    Motor gasoline         Kerosene and jet fuel
                                 Naphtha                Gas/diesel oil         Residual fuel oil
                                 Petrol coke            Bitumen                Lubricants
                                 Other




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                       115
26 April 2011
                        Figure 63 Petroleum Product Imports, Serbia, 2007-2020

             1.400

             1.200

             1.000
 x 1 000 t




              800

              600

              400

              200

                 0
                       2007           2008             2009          2010             2015             2020
                     LPG                     Motor gasoline         Kerosene and jet fuel    Naphtha
                     Gas/diesel oil          Residual fuel oil      Petrol coke              Bitumen
                     Lubricants              Other



                        Figure 64 Petroleum Product Exports, Serbia, 2007-2020

             2.500


             2.000


             1.500
 x 1 000 t




             1.000


              500


                0
                       2007           2008             2009          2010            2015              2020
                       LPG                         Motor gasoline            Kerosene and jet fuel
                       Naphtha                     Gas/diesel oil            Residual fuel oil
                       Bitumen                     Lubricants                Other




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                              116
26 April 2011
                         Figure 65 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020

                         5.000
                         4.500
                         4.000

                         3.500
                         3.000
             x 1 000 t




                         2.500
                         2.000
                         1.500
                         1.000

                          500
                              0
                                     2007               2008             2009        2010             2015              2020
                                   LPG                         Motor gasoline       Kerosene and jet fuel     Naphtha
                                   Gas/diesel oil              Residual fuel oil    Petrol coke               Bitumen
                                   Lubricants                  Other



                                  Figure 66 Oil Products Supply and Demand, Serbia, 2007-2020

                 6.000

                 5.000

                 4.000

                 3.000
 x 1 000 t




                 2.000

                 1.000

                          0
                                    Production                     Import                 Export                   Consumption
              -1.000

              -2.000

              -3.000
                                                 2007          2008         2009   2010       2015          2020




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                                 117
26 April 2011
11.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation
The following tables give the Consultants calculated emergency oil stocks
obligation for Serbia based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.

   Table 89 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe              2009          2010         2015         2020
       Crude oil                   2,190         2,035        3,298        4,398
       LPG                           288           298          265          259
       Motor gasoline                -34          -127         -476         -775
       Kerosene and jet fuel         -24           -16          -39          -43
       Gas/diesel oil                490           502         -194         -836
       Residual fuel oil            -123           -22         -230            -3
       Petrol coke                     67           68            83          98
       Bitumen                         10            -2         -11          -56
       Lubricants                      17           50            55          60
       Other                            2           64            12          65
       Total                       2,881         2,849        2,762        3,166
       Daily net imports              7.9           7.8          7.6          8.7




  Table 90 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Serbia,
                                      2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe              2009          2010         2015         2020
       Crude oil                     540           502          813        1,084
       LPG                            71            74           65           64
       Motor gasoline                 -8           -31         -117         -191
       Kerosene and jet fuel          -6            -4          -10          -11
       Gas/diesel oil                121           124          -48         -206
       Residual fuel oil             -30            -6          -57           -1
       Petrol coke                    16            17           20           24
       Bitumen                         3             0           -3          -14
       Lubricants                      4            12           13           15
       Other                           0            16            3           16
       Total                         710           702          681          781




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                    118
26 April 2011
          Table 91 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Serbia, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                         2009          2010            2015           2020
     Motor gasoline                             629          613              791         903
     Kerosene and jet fuel                        48          50                66         94
     Gas/diesel oil                           1,749        1,754            1,975       2,255
     Residual fuel oil                          684          695              722         707
     Total                                    3,111        3,112            3,553       3,959
     Daily inland consumption                    8.5          8.5              9.7       10.8



        Table 92 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Serbia, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                         2009          2010            2015           2020
     Motor gasoline                            105             102           132            151
     Kerosene and jet fuel                       8               8            11             16
     Gas/diesel oil                            292             293           330            377
     Residual fuel oil                         114             116           121            118
     Total                                     520             520           594            662


Assuming Serbia would not make a commitment to maintain at least 30 days
of specific stocks, then at least one third of its stockholding obligation has to
be in the form of products (Table 93).

   Table 93 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports, Serbia,
                                     2010-2021

       × 1 000 toe                2010             2011              2016            2021
       Petroleum products              237             234              227             260
       Crude oil                       474             468              454             520
       Total                           710             702              681             781
       Days of net imports               90               90                90              90


        Table 94 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Serbia, 2010-2021

       × 1 000 t                  2010             2011              2016            2021
       Motor gasoline                   44              42               46              54
       Kerosene and jet fuel             3               3                4               6
       Gas/diesel oil                  122             121              116             136
       Residual fuel oil                48              48               42              43
       Crude oil                       543             537              520             596
       Total                           760             751              728             835

On the basis of the proposed composition of compulsory stocks, the required
volume of storage until 2021 is given in Table 95.



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                  119
26 April 2011
     Table 95 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Serbia, 2010-2021

       m3                        2010          2011           2016       2021
       Motor gasoline              58,497        56,400        61,749      72,566
       Kerosene and jet fuel        4,447         4,531         5,076       7,460
       Gas/diesel oil             145,349       144,007       137,690     161,742
       Residual fuel oil           53,640        53,853        47,487      47,857
       Crude oil                  651,514       644,174       624,530     715,935
       Total                      913,446       902,965       876,534   1,005,560



11.3. Current Oil Infrastructure
This section gives a summary of the Consultant’s understanding of the current
oil infrastructure within Serbia.

                           Figure 67 Oil Infrastructure, Serbia




Crude oil imports (mainly from Russia) by tankers are brought in via the port
of Omišalj in Croatia and further to refineries by the JANAF oil pipeline within
Croatia and by Transnafta oil pipeline within Serbia. The capacity of the
Transnafta pipeline is 9 million tons per year.


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                    120
26 April 2011
                   Table 96 Transnafta Pipeline Transportation System, Serbia

                                               Diameter      Length       Volume
           Route (from - to)
                                                  (“)         (km)      (×1000 m3)
           Dunav (Bačko Novo Selo) –
                                                   26         63,4         21,2
           Novi Sad
           Novi Sad - Pančevo                      18          91          14,2

The strategic plans of JP Transnafta include development of a multiproduct
pipeline system. The total length of the product pipeline is to be 321 km and
the project is expected to start 2011 with the first phase of the project being
completed by the end of 2013 and the complete system completed in 2016.

Altogether storage capacities in Serbia amount about 1.4 million m3 supplied
by rail, road and river.

There are two Serbian refineries in operation, Pančevo and Novi Sad.
Pančevo is designed for a throughput of max. 4.8 Mt/y, while Novi Sad is
designed for a throughput of a maximum of 2.5 Mt/y. The refineries are part of
the oil company NIS whose main businesses are exploitation of oil and gas,
processing and sale of petroleum and petroleum products. In 2008, Gazprom-
Neft acquired 51% of the shares of NIS. The company has its own retail
network of 480 petrol stations and oil storage

                 Table 97 Crude Oil and Semi Products Storage Capacity, Serbia

                Location            Product               Total capacity (m3)
                               Crude oil                        215,000
                Pančevo
                               Semi products                    155,000
                               Crude oil                        106,000
                Novi Sad
                               Semi products                     72,000




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                     121
26 April 2011
                Table 98 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Serbia
                                                                     3
                Location             Product              Capacity (m )
                Pančevo refinery     Petroleum products    370,000
                Novi Sad refinery    Petroleum products    198,000
                Zrenjanin            LPG                     6,200
                Kovačica             LPG                       500
                Kraljevo             LPG                       500
                Mladenovac           LPG                       600
                Odžaci               LPG                     1,500
                Prokuplje            LPG                     2,300
                Zaječar              LPG                     1,000
                                     LPG                     1,400
                                     Motor gasoline         11,800
                Beograd              Jet fuel                5,600
                                     Diesel                  5,300
                                     Gas oil                 2,400
                                     LPG                     2,300
                Čačak                Motor gasoline            400
                                     Diesel                 10,100
                                     LPG                     7,500
                Novi Sad             Motor gasoline         11,500
                                     Diesel                 43,700
                                     LPG                     4,300
                Subotica
                                     Diesel                 16,000
                                     LPG                     1,300
                                     Motor gasoline          4,500
                Niš                  Jet fuel                  200
                                     Diesel                  7,000
                                     Gas oil                 3,000
                                     LPG                       100
                Bogatić              Motor gasoline            100
                                     Diesel                    100
                                     Motor gasoline          3,200
                Smederevo
                                     Diesel                 17,800
                                     Motor gasoline          2,800
                Prahovo              Diesel                 11,400
                                     Gas oil                 9,400
                                     Motor gasoline          2,700
                Požega
                                     Diesel                  5,000
                Crvenka              Diesel                    500
                Barič                Diesel                 17,500
                                     Motor gasoline            100
                Sombor               Diesel                    200
                                     Gas oil                   300
                Jagodina             Motor gasoline          7,000
                                     Motor gasoline            200
                Kladovo
                                     Diesel                    300
                                     Motor gasoline            100
                Svilajnac
                                     Diesel                    100
                Elemir               Diesel                 27,700
                                     Motor gasoline            100
                Kočani
                                     Diesel                    100
                                     Motor gasoline          2,000
                Ada Huja
                                     Diesel                  2,000
                Doljevac             Diesel                  4,400
                Ostružnica           Diesel                 13,000
                Total                                      852,100



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                          122
26 April 2011
11.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation
Serbia holds emergency stocks in the form of motor gasoline, diesel fuel and
fuel oil. At this moment the amount of products that are currently being held
cannot be set out because they are decreed confidential as a state secret.
Article 114 of the Energy Law stipulates that entities supplying consumers
with oil derivatives and electrical power and heat producers which consume
oil derivatives shall, in line with a special law (meaning other than Energy
Law), ensure emergency reserves, and shall ensure operational reserves
which are at minimum equal to the average fifteen-day requirements of those
consumers in the preceding year.

The more detailed conditions and the method for ensuring, using and
replenishing the operational reserves of oil derivatives will be prescribed by
by-law of Energy Law.

Emergency reserves in future will be organized by new The Commodity
Reserves Law.

Operational reserves (which is necessary for security of supply mainly
electricity power and heat producers consuming oil derivatives) and
Mandatory reserves (in accordance with directive) are a different kind of
reserves.

11.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities
A work program of the Directorate for Commodity Reserves for each year is
adopted by the Government. In the last period it has increased the petroleum
products storage capacities and the level of reserves in proportion to funds
received from the state budget. For strategic reserves, three storage facilities
are planned:

    •    Požega, for western Serbia
    •    Smederevo, for central Serbia and Šumadija
    •    Prahovo, for eastern Serbia

The storage capacities were increased to 32,700 m³ in Požega and the work
program for 2010 envisages the rehabilitation of the storage capacity of
50,000 m³ in Smederevo which is planned to be reconstructed in the next two
years. The Prahovo storage facility will be new. The Government is counting
also on the capacities of NIS of which 49% is owned by the State.

The work program of 2010 allocated 900 million RSD for the purchase of
petroleum products with the purpose of raising the level of emergency stocks.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                             123
26 April 2011
JP Transnafta obtained a license for the storage of crude oil in two existing
storage facilities of 10,000 m3 at the terminal in Novi Sad, and plans to build
100,000 m3 of storage capacity for crude oil in Novi Sad and Pančevo.

The Consultant estimates that of the existing storage capacities for petroleum
products in Serbia, about 180,000 m3 might be available for emergency stocks
storage. Therefore, in order to ensure enough capacity for emergency stocks
about 128,000 m3 for oil products and 740,000 m3 for crude oil has to be built
by 2020.

11.6. Legal Review
The Commodity Reserves Law (Official Gazette No. 18/92) regulates the
formation, usage and renewal of commodity reserves that include the oil
reserves. It also defines modes of building, maintenance and management of
the reserves. In compliance with the Commodity Reserves Law, the Republic
Directorate for Commodity Reserves takes care of all commodities reserves.
A new Commodity Reserves Law is being drafted and it will include the
emergency oil stocks.

The Energy Law (Official Gazette No. 84/04) regulates operational reserves
that should be enough for 15 days of average consumption.

The new Commodity Reserves Law is expected to stipulate the organisation
of emergency stocks and bodies responsible for emergency response
planning and procedures.

11.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks
The draft of the new Commodity Reserves Law anticipates that energy
entities will be required to pay a fee for financing the obligatory reserves
system.

Total obligation of emergency stocks to be held in the period of 2011-2021
(Table 90) reaches an amount of 781,000 toe in 2021. According to the
proposed structure of compulsory stocks (Table 94) it is necessary to ensure
about 1 million m3 of storage for crude oil and petroleum products by 2020. It
is estimated that in Serbia, there is about 180,000 m3 of storage capacity
available for oil products. Accordingly, it is necessary to build an additional
117,000 m3 of storage capacity for oil products and 720,000 m3 for crude oil
(Table 99). Total investment in construction of new storage capacities is
estimated to be €172 million.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               124
26 April 2011
  Table 99 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Serbia, 2010-
                                      2021

                                                      Construction
                                                 3
                                               m                    €
                       Oil products          117.000           28.080.000
                       Crude oil             720.000           144.000.000
                       Total                 837.000           172.080.000

In accordance to the calculated total obligation up to 2021 Serbia needs to
invest €369.9 million in the purchase of petroleum products (Table 100).

       Table 100 Required Investment in Oil Product Purchases, Serbia, 2010-2020

                                            Tonnes              €
                          Oil products      238,550        113,701,457
                          Crude oil         596,374        256,291,015
                          Total             834,924        369,992,472

The proposed scenario for construction of new facilities (Table 101) and the of
stocks was defined for the purpose of calculating the compensation to be paid
by importers and producers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline,
gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market of Serbia. The
proposed scenario results with costs that include investments in storage
facilities, procurement of petroleum products and crude oil inventories,
renewal of stocks as well as operational costs of the entire system (Table
105).

                 Table 101 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Serbia, 2010-2020

           m3                     2012       2014       2016       2018          2020
           Oil products            45,000    45,000     27,000          0          0
           Crude oil              150,000   150,000    150,000    150,000    120,000


  Table 102 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement
                     and Operational Costs), Serbia, 2010-2020

× 1000 €        2011      2012 2013      2014 2015      2016     2017     2018    2019   2020
Oil
products           0 28,643 684 29,327 1,368 18,554              1,778 1,778 1,778    1,778
Crude oil          0 85,977 2,280 88,257 4,560 90,537            6,840 92,817 9,120 77,902
Total              0 114,620 2,964 117,584 5,928 109,091         8,618 94,595 10,898 79,680

With the defined scenario of stocks formation (Figure 68) and forecast
consumption of petroleum products in Serbia, the average fee paid by the
importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline,
gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG sold on the market would amount to 0.013

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                          125
26 April 2011
€/l4. Such a fee covers the costs of the formation of 90-day supplies of oil and
petroleum products by the year 2020.

          Figure 68 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Serbia, 2011-2020

                800
                                    Crude oil          Oil products
                700

                600

                500
    x 1 000 t




                400

                300

                200

                100

                 0
                      2011   2012   2013        2014      2015        2016   2017   2018   2019   2020


In the case that Serbia would want to form the stocks of crude oil and oil
products by the 2016 (as per some suggested targets), the average fee per
each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market
would amount to maximum 0.019 €/l.

11.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System
The Directorate’s department for non-food commodities undertakes activities
related to formation, maintenance, storage, territorial distribution of oil and oil
products, management, use, and intervention with these goods in the market.
The department also makes analysis, surveys and studies that serve as
technical basis for the legal regulation of formation, maintenance, utilisation
and territorial disposition of oil and oil products.

The draft Commodity Reserves Law will determine the organisational
structure for holding and reporting of emergency stocks but the proposed
structure is currently being revised.


11.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption
In the event of market disruption, caused by an interruption of supply the
Republican Directorate for Commodity Reserves is supposed to intervene in
the market under the Law on Commodity Reserves and the Government's
decision. In case of taking necessary measures due to market disruption, the
4
 The fee is calculated presuming that Serbia has no emergency stocks as the data on
existing stocks was not available to the Consultant.

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                     126
26 April 2011
Directorate in line with ministries jointly have to do market analysis and
propose possible measures to the Government, which makes the final
decision on market reaction.

11.10.          Required Legislative Changes
Republic of Serbia is currently preparing a new Law on Commodity Reserves
that would regulate emergency oil and oil products reserves in accordance
with Directive 2009/119/EC. This Law should take into account:
   •     The method of calculation of the obligatory oil stocks (90 days of
         average daily net imports) - Article 3 of the Directive; Annexes I, II
         and III of the Directive
   •     There is an obligation to submit statistical summaries of the level of
         emergency stocks on a regular bases for each month - Article 12 and
         Annex IV of the Directive 2009/119/EC
   •     There is an obligation to submit statistical summaries of the level of
         commercial stocks on a regular bases for each month - Article 14 of
         the Directive 2009/119/EC
   •     Biofuels can be taken into account when calculating stockholding
         obligation - Article 16 of the Directive 2009/119/EC
   •     The procedure in case of supply disruptions are to be refined to
         include the Commission and IEA in the process - Article 20 of the
         Directive 2009/119/EC

11.11.          Road Map
Serbia, legally and organisationally, is well on the way to compliance with
Directive 2009/119/EC. There are some relatively minor legislative changes to
be made but the Consultant does not anticipate these being problematic or
time consuming. There is a requirement for additional storage capacity
building but this should be financeable under the existing bodies and with the
measures outlined in this report. An envisaged timeline for compliance is set
out in Figure 69. The Consultant believes that Serbia should be able to attain
compliance with all facets of Directive 2009/119/EC by 2018 and certainly
within the time frame of this study.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                             127
26 April 2011
                                              Figure 69 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Serbia




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                         128
26 April 2011
12. UNMIK
UNMIK is a net importer of petroleum products. There is production of neither
crude oil nor petroleum products in UNMIK.

12.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand
The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position
in UNMIK based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.

                         Figure 70 Petroleum Product Imports, UNMIK, 2007-2020

              1.000
               900

               800
               700
               600
  x 1 000 t




               500
               400

               300
               200

               100
                 0
                         2007         2008         2009       2010           2015           2020
                  LPG                  Motor gasoline     Kerosene and jet fuel   Gas/diesel oil
                  Residual fuel oil    Petrol coke        Bitumen                 Lubricants




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                   129
26 April 2011
                         Figure 71 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, UNMIK, 2007-2020

                         1.000

                             900

                             800
                             700

                             600
             x 1 000 t




                             500
                             400

                             300

                             200

                             100

                               0
                                      2007                2008               2009          2010          2015             2020
                               LPG                         Motor gasoline           Kerosene and jet fuel       Gas/diesel oil
                               Residual fuel oil           Petrol coke              Bitumen                     Lubricants



                                   Figure 72 Oil Product Supply and Demand, UNMIK, 2007-2020

              1.000

                     900

                     800

                     700

                     600
 x 1 000 t




                     500

                     400

                     300

                     200

                     100

                         0
                                    Production                      Import                   Export                 Consumption

                                                   2007          2008        2009   2010          2015   2020




12.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation
In the following tables the Consultant calculates the emergency oil stocks
obligation for UNMIK based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                                  130
26 April 2011
  Table 103 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, UNMIK, 2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe              2009          2010              2015          2020
       Crude oil                        0            0                0             0
       LPG                             47          48                66           70
       Motor gasoline                  98          84              114           128
       Kerosene and jet fuel           21          19                29           34
       Gas/diesel oil                257          261              313           387
       Residual fuel oil             112          104              145           148
       Petrol coke                     35          47                45           64
       Bitumen                         50          43                83           91
       Lubricants                       6            6                9           12
       Other                            0            0                0             0
       Total                         627          610              804           933
       Daily net imports              1.7          1.7              2.2           2.6


 Table 104 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, UNMIK,
                                      2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe              2009          2010              2015          2020
       Crude oil                       0            0                0             0
       LPG                            12           12               16            17
       Motor gasoline                 24           21               28            32
       Kerosene and jet fuel           5            5                7             8
       Gas/diesel oil                 63           64               77            95
       Residual fuel oil              28           26               36            37
       Petrol coke                     9           11               11            16
       Bitumen                        12           11               20            22
       Lubricants                      1            1                2             3
       Other                           0            0                0             0
       Total                         155          151              198           230


        Table 105 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, UNMIK, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                       2009       2010            2015         2020
     Motor gasoline                         110           95           129           144
     Kerosene and jet fuel                   24           22             33           38
     Gas/diesel oil                         290          294           353           436
     Residual fuel oil                      127          117           163           167
     Total                                  551          527           678           785
     Daily inland consumption               1.5           1.4           1.9          2.2




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                           131
26 April 2011
       Table 106 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, UNMIK, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                       2009           2010          2015         2020
     Motor gasoline                           18             16            22           24
     Kerosene and jet fuel                     4              4             6            6
     Gas/diesel oil                           48             49            59           73
     Residual fuel oil                        21             20            27           28
     Total                                    92             88           113          131


Given the fact that UNMIK has no indigenous capacity for processing crude
oil, it was assumed that the total of their stockholding obligation would be in
the form of products (Table 107).

  Table 107 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports, UNMIK,
                                     2010-2021

       × 1 000 toe              2010           2011               2016          2021
       Petroleum products           155               151            198           230
       Crude oil                      0                 0              0             0
       Total                        155               151            198           230
       Days of net imports             90              90                90            90


       Table 108 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, UNMIK, 2010-2021

       × 1 000 t                2010           2011               2016          2021
       Motor gasoline                28                25             35            39
       Kerosene and jet fuel          6                 6              9            10
       Gas/diesel oil                75                77             95           117
       Residual fuel oil             33                31             44            45
       Crude oil                      0                 0              0             0
       Total                        142               138            182           211

On the basis of proposed composition of the compulsory stocks, the required
volume of storage to 2021 is shown in Table 109.

   Table 109 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, UNMIK, 2010-2021

       m3                       2010           2011               2016          2021
       Motor gasoline             37.838            33 057         46,112        51,586
       Kerosene and jet fuel       8.176             7.434         11,649        13,375
       Gas/diesel oil             88.803            91.616        112,598       139,560
       Residual fuel oil          36.680            34.339         49,160        50,355
       Crude oil                       0                 0              0             0
       Total                     171.497           166.445        219,519       254,876




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                             132
26 April 2011
12.3. Current Oil Infrastructure
The Consultant’s understanding of the current oil infrastructure is given in this
section.

                            Figure 73 Oil Infrastructure




There no refineries or pipelines in UNMIK.

There is about 185,000 m3 of petroleum product storage capacity in UNMIK,
of which, 51,000 m3 are storages of retail outlets. Most of the storage consists
of small volume tankage and is used by private companies. The storage in
Ferizaj, Mitrovice and Peje is publicly owned and might be used for
emergency stockholding purposes in the future. The biggest storage is Snake
Depot with 20,000 m3 of capacity located in Bardosh near Pristina and
operated by INA.

Storage located along the railway line receives petroleum products from
refineries in the region (mostly OKTA) but others are supplied by road only.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                              133
26 April 2011
                       Table 110 Storage Capacities for Oil Products

                                                                       Capacity
          Location                                 Product
                                                                         (m³)
                                     Diesel fuel and motor gasoline      22,000
                                     Fuel oil                             4,500
          Prishtine
                                     LPG                                    600
                                     Jet fuel                               300
          Fushe Kosove/UNMIK         Diesel fuel and motor gasoline      31,000
          polje                      LPG                                  1,900
                                     Diesel fuel and motor gasoline       2,000
          Obiliq
                                     Fuel oil                             2,000
          Lipjan                     Diesel fuel and motor gasoline       4,000
                                     Diesel fuel and motor gasoline      12,500
                                     Fuel oil                             1,000
          Ferizaj/uroševac
                                     LPG                                    450
                                     n/a                                *14,000
                                     Diesel fuel and motor gasoline       3,500
          Prizren
                                     Fuel oil                             1,000
          Suhareke                   LPG                                    350

          Malisheve                  LPG                                  1,100

                                     Diesel fuel and motor gasoline       2,000
          Gjakovë/ðakovica           Fuel oil                             3,500
                                     LPG                                    450
                                     Diesel fuel and motor gasoline       2,000
          Mitrovicë
                                     n/a                                 *9,000
          Drenas                     Fuel oil                             2,000
          Elez Hani                  Diesel fuel and motor gasoline       6,000
          Gjilan                     Diesel fuel and motor gasoline       2,000
                                     LPG                                    450
          Peje
                                     n/a                                **2,000
                                     Diesel fuel and motor gasoline       1,000
          Other                      Fuel oil                             1,000
                                     LPG                                    200
          Storages at retail
                                     Gas oil, motor gasoline, LPG        51,000
          objects
          Total                                                         184,800
         * about 30% in operation; ** not in operation



UNMIK is landlocked and therefore most of the petroleum products are
imported from the FYR Macedonia by rail and road. Imported petroleum
products are transported 10% by rail and 90% by trucks.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                  134
26 April 2011
12.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation
Currently there are no emergency stocks in accordance with Directive
2009/119/EC in UNMIK.

12.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities
Considering the current rather low storage capacity for petroleum products
UNMIK should build new storage. The required volume of storage in year
2016 amounts to 220,000 m3, trending to 255,000 m3 by 2021.

There is a possibility of using some of the existing capacities for emergency
stockholding with a volume of about 34,000 m3.

12.6. Legal Review
The oil market structure is controlled by the Ministry of Trade and Industry
through Administrative Direction No. 01/2010 which regulates the organisation
and functioning of the Licensing Office for Regulation and Monitoring of the
Oil Sector.

Emergency reserves of petroleum products are defined in the amended Law
on Trade of Petroleum and Petroleum Products (Law No. 03/L-138). All
petroleum and petroleum product storage and sale points are obligated at any
time to possess reserves of at least 5% of their storage capacity for state
emergency purposes. In case of market disruption, the Minister of Trade and
Industry through special legal acts can mandate a higher percentage for
emergency reserves.

A draft Law on Emergency Oil Stocks Reserves is currently being prepared
and should be adopted by the Assembly. The Law should be in compliance
with Directive 2009/119/EC as it is going to be brought in by the end of 2012.

12.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks
The total obligation of emergency stocks to be held in the period of 2011-2021
(Table 107) increases and amounts to 230,000 toe in 2021. According to the
proposed structure of compulsory stocks (Table 108), it is necessary to
ensure 257,000 m3 of storage for petroleum products by 2020. It is estimated
that in UNMIK, there are about 34,000 m3 of storage capacity available for oil
emergency stockholding purposes. Accordingly, it is necessary to build
additional 223,000 m3 of storage capacity for oil products (Table 111). Total
investment in construction of new storage capacities and modernisation of
existing facilities is estimated at €56.8 million.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                             135
26 April 2011
    Table 111 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, UNMIK, 2010-
                                         2021

                                       Construction                       Modernisation
                                      m3          €                       m3          €
           Oil products             223,000 53,520,000                    34,000  3,264,000

   In accordance to the calculated total obligation up to 2021 UNMIK needs to
   invest in the purchase of petroleum products in amount of €99.9 million (Table
   112).

           Table 112 Needed Investment in Oil Products Purchase, UNMIK, 2010-2020

                                                      Tonnes            €
                               Oil products            210,901      99,928,815

   In order raise funds for emergency stocks formation in UNMIK the Consultant
   recommends collection of fee paid by the producers and importers of
   petroleum products. The liable body should be responsible for collection of
   fees.

   The proposed scenario of modernisation of the existing storage capacity
   (Table 113), construction of new facilities (Table 114) and the acquisition of
   stocks were defined for the purpose of calculating the compensation to be
   paid by importers and producers of petroleum products per each litre of
   gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG sold on the UNMIK market. This
   covers the costs that include investments in storage facilities, procurement of
   petroleum products inventories, renewal of stocks as well as operational costs
   of the entire system (Table 115).

                       Table 113 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, UNMIK, 2010-2020

               m3                      2012         2014       2016          2018       2020
               Oil products             20,000      14,000            0             0          0


                       Table 114 Storage Tank Construction Plan, UNMIK, 2010-2020
                   3
              m                        2012          2014      2016          2018       2020
              Oil products                    0      40,000    60,000        60,000     63,000


     Table 115 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement
                        and Operational Costs), UNMIK, 2010-2020

× 1000 €               2011     2012   2013         2014    2015     2016 2017    2018          2019     2020
Oil products              0    2,224    304       27,231   1,125   39,180 2,037 40,092         2,949   42,907




   Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                       136
   26 April 2011
With the defined scenario of stocks formation (Figure 74) and forecast
consumption of petroleum products in UNMIK, the average fee paid by the
importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per litre of gasoline, gas
oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market would amount to 0.021 €/l.
Such fee ensures the formation of 90-day supplies of oil and petroleum
products by the year 2020 in UNMIK.

     Figure 74 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in UNMIK, 2011-2020

             250

                                    Oil products

             200



             150
 x 1 000 t




             100



             50



              0
                   2011     2012   2013      2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020




12.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System
Currently, UNMIK does not have an established emergency stocks system. It
would be necessary to form a CSE or relevant body under the jurisdiction of
the Government of UNMIK that would execute the legal obligations stipulated
in the Directive 2009/911/EC. The main obligations comprise tasks of
providing required volume of storage capacities, purchase and maintenance
of emergency stocks, and report of the state of stocks to the specified body.

12.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption
UNMIK should design a clear structural and procedural legal framework for
the rapid response in case of supply disruption of petroleum products.

12.10.                    Required Legislative Changes
There is a need to provide a complete legal framework covering formation,
maintenance, financing and monitoring of emergency stocks, organisation of
the emergency stockholding system as well as procedures for rapid response
in case of supply disruption.


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                       137
26 April 2011
12.11.          Road Map
UNMIK needs to implement an entire stock holding system and construct
storage facilities to hold the emergency stocks. The Consultants understand
that legislation is currently being planned to meet Directive 2009/119/EC but
there is a long way to go until compliance. An envisaged timeline is given in
Figure 75 .




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                           138
26 April 2011
                                                                       Figure 75 Road Map Gantt Diagram, UNMIK


                                                                           2011     2012    2013    2014    2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020
  Task
  Legal
  Develop regulatory framework/laws
  Enact relevant laws and regulations
  Organisational and Management
  Develop strategy and organisation for managing stocks
  Set up Central Stockholding Entity (as required)
  Develop stockholding obligations for operating companies (if required)
  Development of Emergency Response Planning
  Development of Inventory monitoring and reporting system
  Engineering
  Secure Engineering Budget
  Assess and design additional tank capacity
  Engineering design for additional tank capacity
  Tender for storage construction
  Build required additional tank capacity
  Stockbuilding
  Arrange financing for purchasing of emergency stocks
  Build-up emergency stocks
  Report compliance progress to the Energy Community



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                                                      139
26 April 2011
13. Georgia
Georgia has a small petroleum product market when compared to the other
Observer countries of the Energy Community but the market is comparable in
size to the Contracting Parties with a market of approximately 2.5 Mt/y in 2009
and expected to grow to approximately 2.9 Mt/y by 2020. Georgia has very
limited domestic production of crude oil. Georgia did have a small 50 kt/y
refinery but this was very old and ceased operation in 2005 and Georgia
imports petroleum products to meet domestic consumption. A tender has
recently been awarded for a feasibility and preliminary design of a 50 kt/y
refinery, however PDC has not modelled any production from this refinery into
the forward modelling as the Consultant believes that the refinery will not be
completed and operational by 2020.

The Consultant believes that Georgia will remain dependent on imports yet
Georgia is well placed to receive competitively priced imports of products via
the Black Sea. Black Sea products are priced based on that of the
Mediterranean market which is one of the most competitive markets for oil
products globally due to the Black Sea being linked through the Dardanelles
Strait to the Mediterranean.

Most imports are brought in through the ports of Poti and Batumi where there
are capable and relatively modern handling facilities. This should in theory
make for easier extension of facilities or building of facilities to hold
emergency stocks. Any new facilities here will be well situated to receive
imports of fuels and easily connect to existing infrastructure.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                            140
26 April 2011
13.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand
The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position
in Georgia based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.

                Figure 76 Crude Oil Imports and Exports, Georgia, 2007-2020




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                              141
26 April 2011
                Figure 77 Petroleum Product Imports, Georgia, 2007-2020




      Figure 78 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Georgia, 2007-2020




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 142
26 April 2011
                Figure 79 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Georgia, 2007-2020




13.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligations

To comply with the Directive, Georgia must hold the greater of 90 days of net
imports or 61 days of inland consumption. In this case Georgia must hold the
equivalent of 90 days of net imports

 Table 116 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Georgia, 2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe                 2009         2010         2015        2020
       Crude oil                          19           0            0              0
       LPG                                11           1         -16               5
       Motor gasoline                   497         574          742            951
       Kerosene and jet fuel              61         78          105            138
       Gas/diesel oil                   406         436          509            599
       Residual fuel oil                   0           0            0              0
       Petrol coke                         1           1            3              4
       Bitumen                        1,690       1,606        1,503          1,374
       Lubricants                         14         14            12            10
       Other                               0           0            0              0
       Total                          2,698       2,711        2,856          3,081
       Daily net imports                 7.4         7.4          7.8            8.4




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                       143
26 April 2011
 Table 117 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Georgia,
                                      2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe               2009         2010           2015        2020
       Crude oil                        5            0            0            0
       LPG                              3            0           -4            1
       Motor gasoline                 123          142          183          234
       Kerosene and jet fuel           15           19           26           34
       Gas/diesel oil                 100          108          125          148
       Residual fuel oil                0            0            0            0
       Petrol coke                      0            0            1            1
       Bitumen                        417          396          371          339
       Lubricants                       4            3            3            2
       Other                            0            0            0            0
       Total                          665          668          704          760




        Table 118 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Georgia, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                        2009       2010        2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                        560        647         835      1,071
     Kerosene and jet fuel                  69          87        118        156
     Gas/diesel oil                        457        492         573        675
     Residual fuel oil                        0          0           0          0
     Total                               1,086      1,226       1,526      1,902
     Daily inland consumption               3.0        3.4         4.2        5.2


       Table 119 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Georgia, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                        2009       2010        2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                         94        108         140        179
     Kerosene and jet fuel                  11         15          20         26
     Gas/diesel oil                         76         82          96        113
     Residual fuel oil                       0          0           0          0
     Total                                 181        205         255        318

Where 90 days of average daily net imports is greater than 61 days of
average daily inland consumption, the stockholding obligation is calculated on
the basis of average daily net imports.

Given the assumed lack of refining in Georgia, the Consultant recommends at
this stage an emergency stock holding consisting of 100 percent product and
the proposed constitution is set out below.



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                    144
26 April 2011
       Table 120 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Georgia, 2010-2020

       × 1 000 toe              2009         2010        2015         2021
       Motor gasoline              111          127         146          189
       Kerosene and jet fuel         16           16          20           27
       Gas/diesel oil                94         103         111          130
       Residual fuel oil              0            0           0            0
       Petroleum Coke                 0            0           0            1
       Bitumen                     412          431         409          383
       Lubricants                     4            4           4            3
       Other                          0            0           0            0
       Total                       637          680         690          732




   Table 121 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Georgia, 2010-2021

       m3                       2009        2010         2011         2015
       Motor gasoline           148,357     168,708      194,967      251,793
       Kerosene and jet fuel     21,045      20,443       25,976       35,032
       Gas/diesel oil           112,181     122,995      132,263      154,175
       Residual fuel oil              0           0            0            0
       Petroleum Coke                 6         220          397          825
       Bitumen                  433,206     453,158      430,599      402,898
       Lubricants                 4,627       4,059        3,955        3,455
       Other                          0           0            0            0
       Total                    714,795     765,525      784,202      844,722


13.3. Current Oil Infrastructure
This section provides a summary of the Consultant’s understanding of the
current oil infrastructure within Georgia.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 145
26 April 2011
                                Figure 80 Oil Infrastructure




Source: PDC after CIA World Factbook

Georgia has two major ports, Batumi and Poti.

Batumi is at the terminus of the Caspian oil pipeline and is primarily an export
terminal with a capacity of 18 million tonnes per annum. Poti has storage
capacity for products 2.0 million tonnes per annum and crude of 1 million
tonnes per annum.

Georgia currently has a total of 1,258 km of oil pipelines and has a rail
capacity of handling some 5.2 million m3of oil and petroleum products.

                         Table 122 Georgia Storage Capacity

  Terminal Name                      Capacity (m3) Product       Access
  Batumi Oil Terminal Ltd.                581,650 PET, CRUDE     Sea, Rail, Pipe
  Channel Energy Poti Oil
  Terminal                                  120,000 PET          Sea, Rail
  SOCAR Kulevi Black Sea
  Terminal                                  380,000 PET, CRUDE   Sea, Rail, Pipe
  Supsa Oil Terminal                        160,000 CRUDE        Sea, Pipe
Source: www.tankfinder.com
Key: PET = Petroleum Products




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                              146
26 April 2011
                          Figure 81 Map of Georgia Pipelines




Key: Red = Baku (Azerbaijan) - Supsa Pipeline; Green = Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyan

The small (50,000 tonnes per year) refinery in Georgia has not functioned
since 2005. There are currently tenders in circulation for design of a
replacement refinery. Reaching operational capacity is, in the Consultants
view, not likely within the time frame of this project.

13.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation
There are currently no legal arrangements or organisations for the holding of
emergency oil stocks in Georgia.

13.5. Additional Required Stock Holding Capacities
This is discussed below.

13.6. Legal Review
Georgian currently does not have a legal regime for the holding of emergency
oil stocks.

13.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks

To calculate the investment requirement, largest calculated required volume
of storage of each individual petroleum product in the period 2010-2020 was
determined and rounded up to the nearest 5,000 m3. The capacities were
then multiplied by the cost per m3 outlined in Section 3.3.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                             147
26 April 2011
Table 123 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Georgia, 2010-
                                     2020

           Product                       m3                Capex (€)
           Motor gasoline             325,000              78,000,000
           Kerosene and jet fuel       50,000              12,000,000
           Gas/diesel oil             185,000              44,400,000
           Residual fuel oil                0                        0
           Other                       60,000              14,400,000
           Total                      620,000             148,800,000

The above calculation assumes that there is a requirement to build new
facilities for the emergency fuel stocks. There are already significant storage
facilities within Georgia as detailed in Table 122 and it may be possible to
class some of the stocks held for commercial purposes as emergency stocks
and / or to utilise any spare capacity within the storage facilities to be lease for
holding emergency stocks.

The required investment in the purchase of oil products is given in Table 124.

                        Table 124 Georgia Oil Product Purchase

                                           Tonnes        €
                   Products                 346,299 98,357,136

In terms of overall costs for achieving compliance in 2020, the Consultant
estimates that the cost can be applied to a fee charge to importers of
petroleum products at a rate of 0.072 Euro per litre.

13.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System

There are currently no organisational procedures for emergency stocks within
Georgia.

13.9. Intervention is Case of Supply Disruption

There are currently no intervention procedures for supply disruptions within
Georgia.

13.10.          Required Legal Changes
Georgia needs to enact legislation that mandates the formation of emergency
oil stocks, a body to own, maintain and manage the oil stocks and delegates
power to an appropriate body to act in case of supply disruption.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                148
26 April 2011
13.11.          Road Map
Georgia is required to implement every step and process for compliance with
Directive 2009/119/EC. Georgia, given the already significant storage capacity
and terminal facilities within the country should look at ways of incentivising
further tank construction by existing market players and leasing the capacity
back to a stock holding agency and the existing players manage the stocks on
behalf of the stock holding agency. The Consultant recommends that due to
Georgia’s small market, the CSE should own the stocks as it would probably
be too bigger burden on existing players to have to hold reserves of that
quantity. An envisaged timeline is presented in Figure 82.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                           149
26 April 2011
                                                                                         Figure 82 Road Map Gantt Georgia

                                                                                            2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020
                Task
                Legal
                Develop regulatory framework/laws
                Enact relevant laws and regulations
                Organisational and Management
                Develop strategy and organisation for managing stocks
                Set up Central Stockholding Entity (as required)
                Develop stockholding obligations for operating companies (if required)
                Development of Emergency Response Planning
                Development of Inventory monitoring and reporting system
                Engineering
                Secure Engineering Budget
                Assess and design additional tank capacity
                Engineering design for additional tank capacity
                Tender for storage construction
                Build required additional tank capacity
                Stockbuilding
                Arrange financing for purchasing of emergency stocks
                Build-up emergency stocks
                Report compliance progress to the Energy Community


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                                                                  150
26 April 2011
14. Turkey
Turkey is a relatively advanced country in terms of energy security and
planning for supply interruptions with detailed plans laid out. Much of this
comes from Turkey being a member of the IEA and has also in the past
complied with European laws on emergency oil stocks.

Turkey is net importer of oil products and energy. Whilst Turkey has
significant refining capacity, much of this is not fully utilised. Many of the
refineries are not suited to the existing market within Turkey and produce too
much gasoline and fuel oils to meet existing trends and the Consultant
predicts this is likely to continue.

The underutilised capacity however does have its advantages in that it gives
Turkey the flexibility of being able to utilise capacity to increase refining of
products and gives Turkey the advantage of being able to hold emergency
stocks in the form of crude oil. However, even though this strategy of
maintaining stocks of crude oil is potentially cheaper than purchasing
additional emergency stock as product, there may be further problems with
emergency response planning as the Turkish refineries are limited in what
they can produce.

There are detailed emergency and contingency plans in place within Turkey
that are reviewed as adequate by the IEA should a supply interruption arise.5




5
 Note: There has been a lack of timely response from Turkey to the consultant’s
questionnaire and inquiries and as a result reliance has been put on other data sources.

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                           151
26 March 2011
14.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand
The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position
in Turkey based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.

                       Figure 83 Crude Oil Supply, Turkey, 2008-2020




                Figure 84 Petroleum Product Production, Turkey, 2008 - 2010




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                              152
26 March 2011
                Figure 85 Petroleum Products Balance, Turkey, 2007-2020




      Figure 86 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Turkey, 2007-2020




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                153
26 March 2011
                Figure 87 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Turkey, 2007-2020




14.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation

To comply with Directive 2009/119/EC, Turkey must hold the greater of 90
days of net imports or 61 days of inland consumption. In this case Turkey
must hold the equivalent of 90 days of net imports

 Table 125 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Turkey, 2009-2020

      × 1 000 toe                 2009         2010         2015         2020
      Crude oil                    13,273       13,116       21,684       23,398
      LPG                           3,205        3,515        4,152        4,285
      Gasoline                      1,509        1,373          755          820
      Jet/Other Kerosene           -1,429       -1,526       -2,658       -2,772
      Diesel/Gasoil                   828          911          429          594
      Fuel Oil                      9,858       10,282       10,244       12,608
      Other Products                1,311        1,370       -2,249       -2,732
      Total                        28,554       29,043       32,358       36,201
      Daily net imports              78.2         79.6         88.7         99.2




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   154
26 March 2011
 Table 126 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Turkey,
                                      2009-2020

      × 1 000 toe               2009         2010           2015        2020
      Crude oil                   3,273        3,234          5,347       5,769
      LPG                           790          867          1,024       1,057
      Gasoline                      372          339            186         202
      Jet/Other Kerosene           -352         -376           -655        -684
      Diesel/Gasoil                 204          225            106         147
      Fuel Oil                    2,431        2,535          2,526       3,109
      Other Products                323          338           -555        -674
      Total                        7,041        7,161         7,979       8,926


       Table 127 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Turkey, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                      2009        2010        2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                     2,663       2,312       2,279      2,247
     Kerosene and jet fuel              3,182       3,247       3,580      3,913
     Gas/diesel oil                    16,610      16,943      20,048     23,153
     Residual fuel oil                  3,032       3,227       3,248      3,270
     Total                             25,487      25,730      29,156     32,582
     Daily inland consumption            69.8        70.5        79.9       89.3


      Table 128 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Turkey, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                     2009        2010         2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                     445         386          381        375
     Kerosene and jet fuel              532         543          598        654
     Gas/diesel oil                   2,776       2,832        3,350      3,869
     Residual fuel oil                  507         539          543        547
     Total                            4,259       4,300        4,873      5,445

Where 90 days of average daily net imports is greater than 61 days of
average daily inland consumption, the stockholding obligation is calculated on
the basis of average daily net imports.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   155
26 March 2011
      Table 129 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Turkey, 2009-2020

      × 1 000 toe                  2009          2010             2015      2020
      Motor gasoline                   225           197              191       188
      Kerosene and jet fuel            269           276              299       328
      Gas/diesel oil                 1,402         1,441            1,676     1,938
      Residual fuel oil                256           274              272       274
      Crude oil                      5,378         5,470            6,095     6,819
      Total                          7,530         7,659            8,533     9,546


   Table 130 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Turkey, 2009-2020

     m3                            2009          2010       2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                299,683       262,148    254,122    250,778
     Kerosene and jet fuel         353,351       363,390    393,879    430,952
     Gas/diesel oil              1,669,108     1,715,402  1,995,668  2,307,322
     Residual fuel oil             287,579       308,335    305,197    307,579
     Crude oil                   6,402,693     6,512,331  7,255,733  8,117,567
     Total                       9,012,413     9,161,606 10,204,599 11,414,198


14.3. Current Oil Infrastructure
This section provides a summary of the Consultant’s understanding of the
current oil infrastructure within Turkey.

                              Figure 88 Existing Infrastructure




Source: PDC after CIA World Fact Book




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                      156
26 March 2011
Turkey has a total of 3,332 km of oil pipelines. There are two major cross
border pipelines running within Turkey: the Iraq - Turkey pipeline and the
Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline both of which terminate at a Mediterranean port
and give access to the Mediterranean market for Caspian and Middle -
Eastern oil.

                                    Table 131 Storage Capacity

Terminal Name                            Capacity (m3)   Products     Access
Alpet Aliaga                                    68,000   PET          Road, Sea
Alpet Izmit                                     16,460   PET          Sea
Alpet Mersin                                    94,847   PET          Sea
Alpet Samsun                                    46,950   PET          Road, Sea
Altintel Tank                                   45,000   PET, CHEM    Sea
Anadolu Uluslararasi Mt Selin                   31,200   PET          Road, Sea
Arkem Kimya Gebze-Dilovasi Tank                 45,000   PET          Sea
Arkem Kimya Yumurtalik                         100,000   PET, CHEM    Road, Sea
ATAS Refinery                                  570,000   PET          Sea
Aves Mersin                                    117,600   PET, VEG     Sea
Balpet                                          57,000   PET          Road, Sea
Botas Ceyhan Tanker                          1,770,000   CRUDE        Pipe, Sea
Cekisan Antalya                                 36,805   PET          Pipe, Sea
                                                         PET, GAS,
Cekisan Cekmece                                 75,000   CRUDE        Sea
Cekisan Iskenderun                              18,500   PET          Pipe, Sea
Delta Akdeniz Dörtyol                          625,000   PET, CRUDE   Road, Sea
EUROIL Mersin                                   65,160   PET          Road, Sea
                                                         PET, CHEM,
Kiraz Guchan Tank                               21,952   VEG          Road, Sea
Kiraz Yalin Tank                                22,709   PET, CHEM    Rail, Road, Sea
Limas Liman Isletmeciligi                       31,700   PET          Road, Sea
Lukoil Eurasia Petrol – Aliaga                  14,734   PET          Sea
Lukoil Eurasia Petrol – Batman                   5,116   PET          Road
Lukoil Eurasia Petrol – Hatay                   84,329   PET          Road, Sea
Lukoil Eurasia Petrol – Hopa                    13,000   PET          Pipe, Sea
Lukoil Eurasia Petrol - Kirikkale               19,400   PET          Road
Lukoil Eurasia Petrol - Kocaeli                 32,000   PET          Sea
Lukoil Eurasia Petrol – Mersin                  16,800   PET          Road, Sea
M Oil Antalya Dolum Tesisi                      33,300   PET          Sea
Opet Aliaga                                     66,000   PET          Pipe, Sea, Road
Opet Giresun                                    43,130   PET          Road, Sea
Opet Konya Depot                                 1,526   PET          Road



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   157
26 March 2011
                                                3
Terminal Name                        Capacity (m )   Products        Access
Opet Korfez                                37,500    PET             Pipe, Sea, Road
Opet Marmara                              453,000    PET             Road, Sea
Opet Mersin                               248,000    PET             Rail, Road, Sea
Orka Tank                                  12,000    PET, CRUDE      Road, Sea
Petline Izmir (Korfez) Facility            21,000    PET             Sea
Petline Kirikkale Storing Facility         57,000    PET             Road
Petline Trakya                            198,300    PET             Pipe, Road, Sea
Petrol Ofisi Aliaga s                     165,325    PET             Sea
Petrol Ofisi Antalya s                    108,919    PET             Sea
Petrol Ofisi Derince                      184,000    PET             Sea
Petrol Ofisi Haramidere s                        -   PET             -
Petrol Ofisi Iskenderun s                        -   PET             -
Petrol Ofisi Istanbul s                   973,760    PET             Pipe, Road, Sea
Petrol Ofisi Mudanya s                     20,150    PET             Sea
Petrol Ofisi Samsun s                      54,289    PET             Sea
Petrol Ofisi Trabzon s                     78,427    PET             Sea
Poliport Kimya Sanayi ve Ticaret
A.S.                                      140,000    PET, CHEM       Pipe, Road, Sea
Soil Black Sea                            140,200    PET, VEG        Sea
Soil Mersin                                96,400    PET             Road, Sea
                                                     PET, CHEM,
Solventas Teknik Depolama A.S.            220,000    VEG             Road, Sea
                                                     PET, CHEM,
Toros Ceyhan                              247,427    VEG, GAS        Road, Sea
Total Gebze i                              94,950    PET             Sea
Total Haramidere                           39,500    PET             Sea
Turcas Aliaga s                            11,150    PET             Road, Sea
Turcas Ambarli s                           66,014    PET             Sea
Turcas Korfez s                            16,000    PET             Sea
Turkuaz & Zulfikarlar Chemical
Yarimca                                    39,185    PET, CHEM       Pipe, Sea
Yilport Konteyner i ve Liman
Isletmeleri                               120,000    PET, CHE, VEG   Pipe, Road, Sea
Source: Tankerterminals.com

Turkey’s four existing refineries are dominated by Tupras and are relatively
large with a total capacity of 28.1Mt per year (567 kb/d), but have low
utilisation rates which the Consultant estimates to be approximately 60%
going forward. The refineries are also poorly matched with the Turkey’s
current demand scenario and this is likely to continue to be the case going
forward to 2020.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                  158
26 March 2011
                                Figure 89 Refineries

Refinery                               Owner             Capacity bbl/day (m3/d)
Central Anatolian                      Tupras            100,000 (16,000)
Izmit                                  Tupras            220,000 (35,000)
Aliaga                                 Tupras            220,000 (35,000)
Batman                                 Tupras            22,000 (3,500)
Aliaga (Due 2014)                      Petkim            214,000 (34,000)


14.4. Emergency Stock Holding Current Situation
Stock holding is governed under the 2003 Petroleum Market Law. The Law
sets out requirements for coverage of inland consumption based on the EU
directives and currently requires that 90 days of net imports are held.

The stocks are required to consist of obligatory industry stocks and new
established stocks to make up the requirement to 90 days from previous
requirements laid out by previous EU Directives and IEA requirements.

Industry participants are required to hold stocks as per the schedule set out in
Table 132.
                Table 132 Turkish Industry Stock Holding Requirements

Industry Type                                Required Holding (previous year
                                                     average days)
Refineries                                                 20
Fuel Distributors                                          20
LPG Distributors                                           10
Large consumers (20,000 t/y)                               15

It is the intention to build additional stocks to make up the shortfall of the
above mention industry participants to 90 days.

14.5. Additional Required Stock Holding Capacity
The consultant currently does not have a full break down of Turkey’s existing
emergency stock holding capacity it has been assumed that the total stock
holding capacity and stocks will have to be built up over an 8 year period
starting in 2012. (See Table 133 for break-down of requirements).

14.6. Legal Review
The Consultant understands that there are currently studies being undertaken
and laws are currently being drafted to comply with Directive 2009/119/EC but
this is not available but the Consultant understands that the new laws should
comply with Directive 2009/119/EC.



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 159
26 March 2011
14.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks
Table 133 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Turkey, 2010-
                                     2020

         Products                 Capacity (m3)       Investments (€)
         Motor gasoline              320,000                76,800,000
         Kerosene and jet fuel       435,000               104,400,000
         Gas/diesel oil            2,310,000               554,400,000
         Residual fuel oil           310,000                74,400,000
         Crude oil                 8,120,000             1,948,800,000
         Total                    11,495,000             2,758,800,000

The above calculation assumes that there is a requirement to build new
facilities for the emergency fuel stocks. There are already significant storage
facilities within Turkey as detailed in Table 122 and it may be possible to class
some of the stocks held for commercial purposes as emergency stocks and /
or to utilise any spare capacity within the storage facilities.

Total stock purchase capital expenditure is estimated by the Consultant to be
4.8 billion Euros. Given the assumed annual consumption over the time
period, Turkey potentially should level a charge of 0.022 Euro per litre of liquid
fuel sold.

14.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System
The Turkish National Emergency Sharing Organisation (NESO) which is in
place to coordinate responses to energy supply restrictions is chaired by the
Undersecretary of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources and includes
members of the major oil companies, the Energy Market Regulatory Authority
and can be expanded to include other ministries such as transport as
required. As such, NESO potentially has wide ranging powers including the
ability to relax fuel standards to increase refinery output, call for increased
domestic production and allocate fuel to particular entities. NESO expects to
be able to utilise the capability of Tupras, the formerly State own refining
company with a dominant positions in Turkish refining and product retail to be
beneficial in terms of logistics and communications should a supply
interruption occur.

14.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption
Intervention in case of supply interruption is set out in the Petroleum Market
Law and the constitution of NESO and is compliant with international best
practise and IEA and EU requirements of only countering physical supply
interruptions and not a method of price control.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                              160
26 March 2011
14.10.          Road Map
Turkey is well advance with regards to its maintenance of oil stocks and has
previously been compliant with IEA regulation. With minor legislative changes
and some additional storage capacity building, Turkey should be compliant
with the new directive by 2020 and may well be compliant by or before 2016
as set out in an envisaged time line in Figure 90.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                          161
26 March 2011
                                              Figure 90 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Turkey




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                         162
26 April 2011
15. Ukraine
The Ukraine has a long history of oil and gas production and refining and has
some legal provisions for oil stocks. The Consultant’s forecasts for the
Ukraine indicated that it will be a country that is increasingly reliant on imports
of both product and crude to meet oil product demand. The country’s oil
production is forecast by the Consultant to plateau even with the opening up
to foreign oil companies, access to newer technology and increased
investment in the Ukraine’s oil fields as the Consultant believes this is more a
case of arresting decline rather than bringing on new production.

Details of the emergency oil stocks arrangements are classified as a State
secret and so not disclosed despite efforts by the Consultant to gain access to
this information. As such, the analysis presented in this section is incomplete
and not likely to accurately reflect the true situation within oil and oil product
supply and demand.6

15.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand
The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position
in the Ukraine based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.

                     Figure 91 Crude Oil Supply, Ukraine, 2008-2020




6
 Note: There has been a lack of response from the Ukraine to the consultant’s questionnaire
and inquiries and as a result reliance has been put on other data sources.

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                        163
26 April 2011
                Figure 92 Petroleum Product Production, Ukraine, 2008 - 2010




                 Figure 93 Petroleum Products Balance, Ukraine, 2007-2020




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               164
26 April 2011
      Figure 94 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Ukraine, 2007-2020




                Figure 95 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Ukraine, 2007-2020




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 165
26 April 2011
15.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation

To comply with the Treaty, Ukraine must hold the great of 90 days of net
imports or 61 days of inland consumption. In this case Ukraine must hold the
equivalent of 90 days of net imports

 Table 134 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Ukraine, 2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe               2009         2010           2015        2020
       Crude oil                  13,273       13,116         21,684      23,398
       LPG                           -77          -94            -53         -37
       Gasoline                       64           60             62          75
       Jet/Other Kerosene          1,688        1,651          2,459       3,503
       Diesel/Gasoil                 -82          -71              8          47
       Fuel Oil                    2,012        2,114          3,004       4,199
       Other Products             -2,081       -2,145         -2,381      -2,375
       Total                       14,796        14,631       24,784      28,809
       Daily net imports             40.5          40.1         67.9        78.9


 Table 135 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Ukraine,
                                      2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe               2009         2010           2015        2020
       Crude oil                   3,273        3,234          5,347       5,769
       LPG                           -19          -23            -13          -9
       Gasoline                       16           15             15          18
       Jet/Other Kerosene            416          407            606         864
       Diesel/Gasoil                 -20          -18              2          12
       Fuel Oil                      496          521            741       1,035
       Other Products               -513         -529           -587        -586
       Total                        3,648         3,608        6,111       7,104


        Table 136 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Ukraine, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                        2009        2010       2015       2020
     Motor gasoline                      5,964       5,895      7,078      8,261
     Kerosene and jet fuel                 298         342        413        484
     Gas/diesel oil                      6,503       6,719      7,936      9,152
     Residual fuel oil                     713         719        728        737
     Total                              13,478      13,675     16,155     18,634
     Daily inland consumption             36.9        37.5       44.3       51.1




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   166
26 April 2011
       Table 137 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Ukraine, 2009-2020

     × 1 000 toe                        2009        2010         2015        2020
     Motor gasoline                        997         985        1,183       1,381
     Kerosene and jet fuel                  50          57           69          81
     Gas/diesel oil                      1,087       1,123        1,326       1,530
     Residual fuel oil                     119         120          122         123
     Total                               2,252       2,285        2,700       3,114


       Table 138 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Ukraine, 2009-2020

       × 1 000 toe               2009          2010           2015         2020
       Motor gasoline                493           475            818          962
       Kerosene and jet fuel          25            28             48           56
       Gas/diesel oil                538           542            917        1,066
       Residual fuel oil              59            58             84           86
       Crude oil                   2,787         2,756          4,668        5,426
       Total                       3,902         3,858          6,536        7,597


   Table 139 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Ukraine, 2009-2020

       m3                        2009          2010           2015         2020
       Motor gasoline             657,681       633,558      1,090,844    1,282,989
       Kerosene and jet fuel       32,480        36,241         62,806       74,212
       Gas/diesel oil             640,291       644,774      1,092,010    1,269,131
       Residual fuel oil           66,232        65,146         94,569       96,456
       Crude oil                3,317,667     3,280,661      5,557,503    6,459,997
       Total                    4,714,350     4,660,381      7,897,733    9,182,785



15.3. Current Oil Infrastructure
This section provides an overview of the Consultant’s understanding of the
current infrastructure within the Ukraine.

                          Table 140 Ukraine Ports & Terminals

Port                Terminal                Commodity                Capacity
Yuzhny              Pivdenny Crude Oil      Crude                    Load ~7500 tonnes
                    Terminal                                         per hour
Ilyichevsk          Ilyichevsk Fuel         Fuels                    3.2 million tonnes
                    Terminal                                         per year
Odessa              Odessa oil and gas      Crude and products       25 million tonnes
                    Terminal                                         per year
Source: Tankerterminals.com




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                      167
26 April 2011
Ukraine has a total of 4,514 km oil pipelines and 4,211 km of refined products
pipelines (2009 data).

                              Table 141 Storage Capacity

                                     Capacity
Terminal Name                          (m3)   Products             Access
                                                                   Pipe, Road, Sea,
Eximnefteproduct Terminals 1 & 2      474,000 PET, CRUDE           Rail
Feodosia Oil Terminal                 280,000 PET, CRUDE           Rail, Sea
                                              PET, CHEM,
                                              GAS, CRUDE,
Illichivsk Fuel Terminal               72,160 VEG                  Rail, Sea
Odesnefteprodukt                      147,000 PET, CRUDE           Road, Rail, Sea
Oil Company Alliance Terminal
Yugtorsan                             135,000   PET, CRUDE         Pipe, Sea, Rail
Oil Terminal Yuzhny (Pyvdenniy)       200,000   CRUDE              Sea, Pipe
Reni Oil Terminal                      75,000   PET, CRUDE         Sea, Rail
Transbunker Yuzhny Oil Terminal        80,000   PET                Sea, Rail, Road
Transbunker-Dunay                       2,400   PET                Sea, Rail, Road
Triton Petrol Limited S.A.              9,000   PET                Sea, Rail, Road
Source: Tankerterminals.com

Ukraine has a total of 1.475 million m3 of storage capacity which is a long way
short of the required ~14.3 million m3. The consultant believes this volume of
tankage to be considerably understated in this report due to the laws
regarding the secrecy of Ukraine’s Emergency Oil Stocks.

Ukraine has a long history of oil production and refining, however, many of
Ukraine’s refineries are old and require capital injection and modernisation to
operate competitively and to EU standards producing EU compliant fuels.

                                 Table 142 Refineries

Refinery                               Owner               Capacity bbl/day (m3/d)
Odessa                                 LUKOIL              70,000 (11,000)
Linos                                  TNK-BP              320,000 (51,000)
Kherson                                Alliance            36,000 (5,700)
Kremenchug                             Ukrtatnafta         368,500 (58,600)
Drogobych                              Pryvat              40,000 (6,400)
Neftekhimik Prikarpatya Nadvirna       Pryvat              39,000 (6,200)
Source: Tankerterminals.com




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                168
26 April 2011
15.4. Emergency Stock Holding Situation
Ukraine currently is creating strategic reserves to comply with the IEA
requirements for 90 days of net import coverage. This is being undertaken by
the State Committee of Material Reserve (Derzhkomreserv) which was first
created in 1992. The current situation is one where there is a lack of
transparency as emergency oil reserves are still viewed as a state secret. The
most recent IEA review of policy notes that there is consideration for
compelling distribution companies to hold 60 or 90 day stocks. Ukraine
currently has a stockholding but this is classed as military stocks and
therefore is not accruable under IEA or EU directives towards emergency oil
stocks.

15.5. Additional Capacity Requirements
Since the Ukraine does no release information on its emergency stocks
storage, no analysis has been made.

15.6. Legal Review
There is insufficient information to analyse the readiness to adapt the Acquis.

15.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks
Table 143 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Ukraine 2010-
                                     2020

           Products                   Capacity (m3)       Investments (€)
           Motor gasoline              1,285,000              308,400,000
           Kerosene and jet fuel          75,000               18,000,000
           Gas/diesel oil              1,270,000              304,800,000
           Residual fuel oil             135,000               32,400,000
           Crude oil                   6,460,000            1,550,400,000
           Total                       9,225,000            2,214,000,000

The above calculation assumes that there is a requirement to build new
facilities for the emergency fuel stocks. There are already significant storage
facilities within Ukraine as detailed in Table 122 and it may be possible to
class some of the stocks held for commercial purposes as emergency stocks
and / or to utilise any spare capacity within the storage facilities.

The required capital expenditure for commodity purchase is given below and
the estimated fuel fee for building up emergency stocks is €0.05 per litre of
retail fuel based on a five year build up and 2015 consumption levels.
                Table 144 Commodity Purchase Capital Expenditure, Ukraine

                                                          €
                        Products                      1,094,218
                        Crude                         2,331,987

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                             169
26 April 2011
15.8. Organisational Aspects of the Stockholding System
Derzhkomreserv reserve is responsible for the organisation of the stock
holding system but details of the organisation have not been disclosed.

15.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption
The plans for intervention in cases of supply interruption are understood by
the Consultant to be in existence but are not disclosed.

15.10.          Required Legislative Changes
Since the Consultant does not have the existing legislation, no comment can
be made on necessary changes

15.11.          Road Map
The Ukraine already has many of the requirements to hold emergency oil
stocks in compliance with Directive 2009/119/EC, it is mainly a question of
align required holding levels and disclosure. The Consultant does not
anticipate difficulties in attracting investment into Ukraine’s oil sector. An
envisaged timeline is detailed in Figure 96.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 170
26 April 2011
                                              Figure 96 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Ukraine


                                                                    2011       2012       2013   2014   2015   2016
Task
Legal
Amend laws on commodity resevers to comply with 2009/119/EC
Organisational and Management
Engineering
Secure Engineering Budget
Assess and design additional tank capacity
Engineering design for additional tank capacity
Tender for storage construction
Build required additional tank capacity
Stockbuilding
Arrange financing for purchasing of emergency stocks
Build-up emergency stocks
Report compliance progress to the Energy Community




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                      171
26 April 2011
16. Regional Approach
16.1. Introduction
The European Council underlined the need to enhance security of supply for
the EU as a whole and for each member state in its energy policy. Therefore,
Council Directive 2009/119/EC introduces convergence between the EU oil
supply security system and IEA system. These two systems promote
integrated actions in order to secure energy supply to all Member States.

A regional approach can enhance actions to provide energy security; it is not
limited to storage of stocks in neighbouring country but can extend to
cooperation on emergency response system based on regional agreements.
Such agreements should arrange co-ordinated use of stockdraw and other
measures in response to disruptions in oil supplies. Stockholding agreements
are potentially very important for the Energy Community region due to high
level of market interaction among the Beneficiaries.


16.2. Regulation

The regional arrangements are dependent on strong bilateral arrangements. It
is the Consultant’s finding that the IEA intent for emergency oil stocks is one
of self reliance in terms of supply disruptions.

It is the Consultant’s interpretation of Directive 2009/119/EC that these
bilateral agreements must be achieved and the contingency planning for
supply interruptions must be in place and demonstrably reliable if any regional
approach is going to be deemed acceptable to the European Commission
and/or the IEA.

A key point to bear in mind is that countries hoping to put in place such
agreements have to be able to demonstrate that these are robust and
effective. It is not sufficient to simply have such regulations. Key issues that
can arise include the following:

    •    Who holds title on any stocks held?
    •    What procedures are in place to release stocks to countries other than
         the country in which the stocks are held?
    •    In emergency or crisis situations, how are stocks released to each
         country affected?
    •    How can political, economic or other interference be avoided to ensure
         that a country can be supplied from another with its emergency oil
         stocks?


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                              172
26 April 2011
In case of holding stocks outside national borders, it is of extreme importance
to define clearly availability of stocks at all times as well providing
transparency on the quantity and location of emergency stocks. Beneficiaries
should established agreements for the identification, accounting and control of
the stocks to allow them to be verified at any time. They also should ensure
availability of stocks at all times and release if needed.

Each beneficiary should provide information needed to identify the specific
storage facility where the stocks are located as well as the quantities, the
owner of the stocks and their nature. Stock release procedures in case of
shortage have to be set out clearly.


16.3. Infrastructure

The main benefit of having any cross-border or regional approach to
emergency stockholding is that of economy of scale although there are other
advantages as well as disadvantages.

Generally the advantages of such arrangements might include:

    •    Economy of scale (reduced cost of building and operating storage
         facilities if these are concentrated or centralised in fewer locations with
         shared support services (control rooms, monitoring, auditing etc).
    •    Access to sea ports for land-locked countries (for lower cost
         transportation of products by sea versus by rail or road).
    •    Ability to utilise spare storage capacity in countries close to others that
         have inadequate levels of storage.

At the same time, the disadvantages of a regional approach include:

    •    Lack of clarity in ownership of stocks.
    •    Delays in releasing stocks to markets in other countries (either through
         slower decision making or through physically longer.
         distances/extended supply chains).
    •    Political or economic interference in the management of emergency
         stocks.
    •    Risk of double counting stocks i.e. the same stock being part of the
         stockholding obligation in both countries.
    •    Potential for breakdown of the regional approach if supply shortages
         are caused by intra-regional conflict or dispute.
    •    Plans have to be assessed/audited by outside independent bodies.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 173
26 April 2011
So, overall, it can be seen that most of the advantages are due to
infrastructural benefits (that reduce the cost of stockholding) while most of the
disadvantages are organisational and procedural.

In this region (CPs) there are no excess capacities for oil stocks. Therefore,
especially in the period of stock building emphasize has to be given to
intergovernmental agreements regarding joint emergency response planning
in order to minimize the adverse effects of supply disruptions in the
interconnected market of the region.

It is also understood that the Serbian Government has been keen to support
the use of a regional approach to energy security.

16.4. Examples of regional approaches
As previously stated, there are examples of cross-border stockholdings and
other forms of regional cooperation.

One of the most common forms of regional cooperation is via bi-lateral
agreements between EU member states. Although these are not uncommon,
they have to meet the requirements of the existing and new EU Directive.
The principle challenge in any of these bi-lateral agreements is that they are
assessed to be sufficiently robust and reliable that they will work at times of
supply interruption.

A recent summary of the EU member states holding bilateral agreements in
oil stockholdings is presented in Table 145:




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                              174
26 April 2011
                                            Table 145 EU Bilateral Emergency Oil Stocks Agreements

        BE      DK     DE      EL   ES     FR      IE     IT   LU     NL   PT     UK   SE   FI   CY     EE   HU   LV   LT   MT   CZ     SK   SI

 BE                    1                   1        1           1     1           3

 DK                                                 1                 1           1    1    1           1         1

 DE      1                               2 DE &3          1    2 LU   1    2 PT                         1                        2 CZ        2 SI

 EL                                                                                              2 CY

 ES                                        1              1                 1     3

 FR      1           2 DE &3        1              2 IE   3    2 LU   3           3

  IE     1      1                         2 IE                        1           1    1

  IT                   1            1      3                          1                           1          1              1                2 SI

 LU      1            2 LU                2 LU                        1

 NL      1      1      1                   3        1     1     1           3     1    1          1               1         3                 1

 PT                   2 PT          1                                 3
Continued over leaf




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                                             175
26 April 2011
         BE     DK   DE      EL      ES      FR      IE     IT    LU     NL     PT    UK    SE   FI   CY     EE    HU     LV   LT   MT     CZ     SK         SI

 UK       3     1                     3       3      1                    1                  1    3

 SE             1                                    1                    1            1          1           1           1

  FI            1                                                                      3     1                1           1

 CY                         2 CY                            1             1

 EE             1     1                                                                      1    1                       1    1

 HU                                                         1                                                                                            2 SI

  LV            1                                                         1                  1    1           1                1

  LT                                                                                                          1           1

 MT                                                         1             3

 CZ                  2 CZ                                                                                                                        2 SK

 SK                                                                                                                                       2 SK

  SI                 2 SI                                  2 SI           1                                        2 SI


Key: 1 = Reciprocal agreement pursuant to Article 7 of Council Directive 2006/67/EC; 2 = Asymmetrical agreement with indication of the beneficiary country
of the stocks established on the territory of another Member State pursuant to Article 7 of the Council Directive 2006/67/EC; 3 =




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                                                        176
26 April 2011
From this table, it can be seen that the number of bilateral agreements varies
considerably (from zero to 17), this seemingly reflecting a combination of
factors including the ability of a country to be self-sufficient, desiring to
leverage the excess capabilities of other countries and vice versa to offer
excess capabilities to other countries.

One reasonably well documented system of emergency stock holding is in
Ireland. Ireland has 5 bilateral agreements in place. In 1995, Ireland set up a
new State body, the National Oil Reserves Agency (NORA). Through NORA,
Ireland meets its EU and IEA obligations through a combination of:

      •   Oil stocks owned and held by NORA (either in Ireland or in EU member
          states with whom Ireland has concluded a Bilateral Oil Stockholding
          Agreement);
      •   Oil stock tickets where NORA has entered into short-term commercial
          contracts (either in Ireland or in EU member states with whom Ireland
          has concluded a Bilateral Oil Stockholding Agreement) with an option
          to purchase, in emergency circumstances, during the period of the
          contract;
      •   Operational stocks held in Ireland by industry/large consumers7,
          (excluding stocks within the distribution networks (e.g. filling stations)
          which are deemed to be consumed).

In Ireland’s case, with limited/insufficient storage available within the country,
it is able to meet its obligations through use of available storage in other EU
member states.

The Netherlands holds the most bilateral agreements (17 in total), perhaps
reflecting the scale of its downstream oil infrastructure and role as part of the
largest oil trading hub in Europe.

The pattern of bilateral agreements also indicates that many such
agreements, not surprisingly, are between neighbouring countries.

There have been some concerns about the validity and robustness of these
agreements under the new EU Directive, in particular on how authorisation for
stock releases might be managed and if there is potential for a conflict of
interest over stocks held between CSEs and/or economic operators in
countries which have such agreements.



7
    The industry has no obligation to maintain strategic levels of oil stocks.



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 177
26 April 2011
In Belgium, the stockholding agency APETRA holds some stock for Belgium
in the Netherlands. However, the agency is in a five-year transition period
where it is attempting to bring all stocks within Belgium. The Belgian
stockholding in the Netherlands is believed to have covered about 10% of its
stockholding obligation.

One suggestion in terms of overcoming issues associated with bilateral
agreements is to have a regional body (a type of committee or secretariat)
that oversees the functioning of two or more CSEs that are bound by
appropriate agreements. The role of the regional body would be to ensure the
management and potential release of oil stocks for the countries involved in
an appropriate way regardless of where the stocks were physically held. The
aim of this is to overcome any potential conflict of interest, interference or
inefficient operation due to behaviour or actions of any one country or its CSE.

Such an approach is not believed to have been put in place to date. While it
appears designed to overcome some of the issues of bilateral agreements,
the formation of such a body would need to be such that it had authority over
multiple national CSEs. As such it is not clear how that would be regulated or
legislated.

16.5. Economic Rationale for a Regional Approach
Where countries have relatively small oil markets, as is the case with several
Beneficiaries, there is a strong rational for trying to increase utilisation of
existing capacity within the region if possible. If there is no spare tankage
capacity within the region, there is a strong case for aggregation of building
new capacity as there are economies of scale to be made in building fewer
relatively large facilities as opposed to a greater number smaller facilities for
the same capacity. PDC analysis indicates that the relationship between
increasing the size of the facility against the cost follows a power law
relationship of approximately 0.6 to 0.7 meaning that the additional cost of
storage decreases as the facility gets larger.

Given there is cross border pipeline infrastructure in the region of the
contracting parties, particularly in the countries of former Yugoslavia, there is
the strong potential for regional cooperation and significant cost savings.
Given that the region has to build extra capacity, if cost savings can be made
these should be explored.

The Consultant believes the optimal scenario is likely to be building significant
new capacity at a point where it can be tied into existing pipeline infrastructure
allowing the aggregation of capacity and reducing the unit costs of storage
capacity for all parties.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               178
26 April 2011
16.6. Recommendations
In order to increase security of oil supply in the region the Consultant
recommends establishment of a Coordination Entity for oil and petroleum
products consisting of representatives of the Beneficiaries and chaired by the
Energy Community. The main tasks of the Coordination Entity would be
monitoring of oil market and establishment of coordinated emergency
response procedures.

The system should define obligations of each Beneficiary in implementation of
Directive 2009/119/EC in a certain time frame. Furthermore, Beneficiaries
should establish a system of a monthly statistical reporting of the levels of
commercial and emergency stocks held. The Community should consider
publishing of monthly statistical summary of the commercial and emergency
stocks in the Community level.

In the case of supply disruption, the Coordination Entity should facilitate the
coordination and implementation of measures needed for setting up of regular
alternative oil supply. In order to enable quick, effective and transparent
release of stocks Beneficiaries should have clear procedures in place to take
measures determined by the Coordination Entity. At the Energy Community
level, emergency preparedness is recommended to be defined in order to
achieve the best possible response to oil shortage.

As far as bilateral agreements are concerned, the precise nature and extent of
these needs to be agreed between various countries. In general, the
Beneficiaries do not have surplus storage capacity so there is no obvious
initial provider of storage (i.e. there is no country in a comparable position as
the Netherlands). However, a Coordination Entity would be able to explore
synergies and cost-saving approaches for Beneficiaries to be able to meet
their obligations. It is likely that this will support bilateral agreements between
adjacent and near neighbouring countries, especially where one country’s
market and/or infrastructure is considerably bigger than that of its neighbour’s.

16.7. Community Road Map
The Energy Community is moving towards all Contracting Parties becoming
compliant with Directive 2009/119/EC. To move forward towards regional
cooperation, it is important that all the contracting parties can meet their
emergency oil stocks obligations. Presented in Figure 97 is a road map of the
Consultants view on when all Contracting Parties are likely to have completed
have the recognised stages in meeting compliance with Directive
2009/119/EC. There has been discussion at the work shop conducted during
the writing of this report regarding a cut – off date for all parties to have in
place the required legislation and legal frameworks. Should this date come
about, the timetables should be revised and the Energy Community
Secretariat should be involved in determining the time frame for compliance

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               179
26 April 2011
with Directive 2009/119/EC as the situation evolves and more becomes
known by the individual Beneficiaries.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                       180
26 April 2011
                                                Figure 97 Energy Community Road Map




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                      181
26 April 2011
17. General Conclusions and Recommendations

    •    All the Beneficiaries need, to some extent, to need enhance their crude
         oil and petroleum product stockholding systems in order to be in
         compliance with EU Directive 2009/119/EC. The Consultant’s found
         states of varying preparedness from almost compliance and having
         adequate facilities in place to meet stockholding obligations to
         Beneficiaries that need complete regulatory, legal framework and
         investment in facilities

    •    All Beneficiaries need to make some changes to their legal and
         regulatory framework to comply with the Directive. Whilst some are
         relatively minor, others need to draft the required laws and frameworks
         from a position of having little or no legislation and frameworks in place

    •    There are issues in most countries concerning the monitoring and
         transparent reporting of emergency stockholding and that regulations
         and systems will need to be developed in order to be compliant with
         the Directive. The Consultant found that in most cases, the data
         required to calculate Emergency Stock Holding Obligations, information
         on storage facilities and existing stock holding levels was not readily
         available within the timeframes set out in Directive 2009/119/EC. The
         Consultant recommends that all Beneficiaries continue to work with the
         Energy Community, International Energy Agency and other bodies to
         develop comprehensive and reliable data reporting systems

    •    The Consultant also recommends that the Beneficiaries seek
         cooperation with the European Community, International Energy
         Agency and other countries and agencies that have recently gone
         through the process of developing emergency oil stocks. The
         Consultant recommends that the Energy Community Secretariat will be
         pivotal in facilitating the exchange of ideas and experience between
         more parties

    •    Most Beneficiaries should be able to become compliant with the
         Directive by 2020 through the adoption of a phased programme of
         changes and investment. This will take differing degrees of regulatory
         reform and investment and there needs to be greater work done by all
         the Beneficiaries in studying how to best bring about compliance with
         the Directive.

    •    Given the likely large capital costs involved, the Consultant concludes
         there is scope for seeking development aid from bodies such as the
         European Bank for Development and Reconstruction, the European


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                182
26 April 2011
         Investment Bank, the world bank and other such development
         financiers

     • Data reporting in general needs to improve for technical compliance to
       be achieved under the Directive and there needs to be an increased
       level of accurate and timely reporting from companies to the relevant
       regulatory bodies

     • The Beneficiaries are more inclined to setting up Central Stockholding
       Entities rather than obligating operating companies which, when tried,
       has caused reporting and compliance issues. The Consultant
       recommends that the Beneficiaries continue building robust institutions
       that have the capacity to effectively deal with the work load of ensuring
       compliance with the Directive.

     • There are concerns about the costs of compliance with the Directive
       and there is a growing of awareness of the significant planning
       required to ensure compliance in terms of regulation, reporting and
       physical stockholding. There are however many ways in which
       commercial tankage providers and CSE’s can work together in order to
       reduce the overall cost of ensuring compliance and the Consultant
       recommends these are investigated fully.

     • There are strong reasons for considering a regional approach to
       Emergency Oil Stockholding in terms of cost minimisation but
       significant further analysis and negotiation would be required to
       implement such a regional approach. The Consultant believes this
       should be investigated but concludes that greater regional cooperation
       will be more time consuming to bring about but has the potential to
       bring about substantial benefits.

     • In order to increase security of oil supply in the region the Consultant
        recommends establishment of a Coordination Entity for oil and
        petroleum products consisting of representatives of the Beneficiaries
        and chaired by the Energy Community. The main tasks of the
        Coordination Entity would be monitoring of oil market and
        establishment of coordinated emergency response procedures.

     • All the Beneficiaries have a realistic chance of being compliant with the
       Directive by 2020.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                              183
26 April 2011
18. Appendix 1 - Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply
  and Demand (Data Tables)
18.1. Albania
                       Table 146 Oil Production, Albania, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                    2007      2008       2009      2010        2015       2020
Crude oil                   563.2     577.3      576.6     626.8      2,037.0    1,650.0


                Table 147 Crude Oil Import and Export, Albania, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                    2007      2008       2009       2010       2015       2020
Import                                             82.0
Export                     -153.3     -180.7     -299.0     -193.3    -1,272.4    -640.0


            Table 148 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                   2007       2008      2009       2010        2015       2020
Naphtha                      22.8       16.0      22.9       14.9        31.2       41.1
Gas/diesel oil               80.6       74.4      56.4       72.0       174.0      230.0
Residual fuel oil           125.7       75.8      81.5       76.0       182.0      240.0
Petrol coke                  58.7       47.4      71.9       44.2        92.3      121.9
Bitumen                      69.5       92.2      73.2       85.9       179.5      237.0
Total                       357.2      305.8     305.9      293.0       659.0      870.0


                     Table 149 Refinery Own Use, Albania, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                   2007       2008      2009       2010        2015       2020
Refinery gas                 13.5       11.8      13.1       10.5        21.5       28.6
Residual fuel oil            20.0       17.7      17.0       15.8        32.3       42.8
Other                        34.8       24.2      23.2       21.6        44.2       58.6


                 Table 150 Petroleum Product Imports, Albania, 2007-2020

× 1000 t/year               2007      2008      2009       2010        2015       2020
LPG                            74.0     86.5      94.9      102.0       115.7      136.0
Motor gasoline                 66.6     66.8      80.6       92.9       130.0      164.1
Kerosene and jet
fuel                           10.4     14.6       14.7       14.0       18.2       22.4
Gas/diesel oil                337.2    347.7      335.1      374.0      353.0      410.0
Residual fuel oil              20.0     20.8       31.1       57.6        0.0        0.0
Petrol coke                                        29.9       37.6        0.3        0.2
Bitumen                         1.2      4.5       40.9       54.7        0.9        0.8
Lubricants                      6.4      7.2        8.5        9.4       13.4       17.4
Other                           7.7      0.5        0.2        1.8        5.0        8.9
Total                         523.5    548.6      635.9      744.0      636.5      759.8


Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                    184
26 April 2011
                Table 151 Petroleum Product Exports, Albania, 2007-2020

× 1000 t/year             2007      2008       2009      2010       2015     2020
Naphtha                     22.8      16.0       22.9      14.9       31.2     41.1
Residual fuel oil                                                     23.6     58.7
Petrol coke                  4.0        4.2                            1.0     21.0
Bitumen                     44.4      51.1                            27.0     72.0
Total                        71.2      71.3       22.9      14.9      82.8    192.8


      Table 152 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020

× 1000 t/year            2007       2008       2009      2010       2015     2020
LPG                        74.0       86.5       94.9     102.0      115.7    136.0
Motor gasoline             66.6       66.8       80.6      92.9      130.0    164.1
Kerosene and jet           10.4       14.6       14.7      14.0       18.2     22.4
fuel
Gas/diesel oil             417.8      422.1     391.5      446.0     527.0     640.0
Residual fuel oil          145.7       96.6     112.6      133.6     158.4     181.3
Petrol coke                 54.7       43.2     101.8       81.8      91.6     101.1
Bitumen                     26.3       45.6     114.2      140.6     153.4     165.8
Lubricants                   6.4        7.2       8.5        9.4      13.4      17.4
Other                        7.7        0.5       0.2        1.8       5.0       8.9
Total                      809.5      783.1     918.9    1,022.1   1,212.7   1,437.0




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 185
26 April 2011
18.2. BiH

                          Table 153 Crude Oil Import, BiH, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                      2007      2008       2009       2010      2015        2020
Crude oil                        0.5      75.5    1,065.0    1,150.0   3,230.0     3,900.0


                Table 154 Net Production of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                     2007       2008      2009       2010      2015        2020
LPG                             0.0        1.1       4.5          31       178         215
Motor gasoline                  0.0        3.5     104.7         154       740         894
Naphtha                         0.0        3.5      13.4           0         0           0
Gas/diesel oil                  0.0       20.5     332.2         401     1,214       1,466
Residual fuel oil               0.0       49.7     236.8         257       355         429
Bitumen                         0.0        0.0     110.1         127       311         395
Lubricants                      9.6        9.2      32.7          37        89         111
Other                           0.0        6.9      57.7          21        74          66
Total                           9.6       94.4     892.1     1,029.0   2,962.0     3,576.1


                         Table 155 Refinery Own Use, BiH, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                     2007       2008      2009       2010      2015        2020
Refinery gas                    0.0        0.9      18.9       28.2      81.1        97.9
LPG                             0.0        0.4      15.8        0.0        0.0        0.0
Residual fuel oil               1.6        5.9      88.5       92.8     176.9       214.1
Petrol coke                     0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0       0.0          0.0
Other                           0.1        0.0       0.0        0.0       0.0         0.0


                     Table 156 Petroleum Product Imports, BiH, 2007-2020

× 1000 t/year                 2007      2008      2009       2010      2015        2020
LPG                              12.0     16.8      12.9        6.0       4.0         2.0
Motor gasoline                  305.8    293.5     203.2      168.0     150.0       127.0
Kerosene and jet
fuel                              1.1     0.8         1.7        2.0         2.0       3.0
Gas/diesel oil                  796.6   839.1       521.1      595.0       570.0     490.0
Residual fuel oil                95.4    92.6        15.0       28.0        18.0      12.0
Petrol coke                      55.2    46.8        36.8       34.0        30.0      26.0
Bitumen                         109.5   130.5        49.2       41.0        32.0       6.0
Lubricants                       24.4    22.1        16.1       14.0        18.0      20.0
Other                             1.7     1.6         1.2        2.0         2.0       2.0
Total                         1,401.7 1,443.8       857.2      890.0       826.0     688.0




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                      186
26 April 2011
                    Table 157 Petroleum Product Exports, BiH, 2007-2020

× 1000 t/year               2007      2008       2009      2010      2015       2020
LPG                            0.0       0.0        0.8      13.0      147.0      178.0
Motor gasoline                 0.0       0.0        4.1      22.4      575.5      677.1
Gas/diesel oil                 0.2       0.3        5.2      63.4      805.4      817.3
Residual fuel oil              0.0       0.0      129.7     168.3      277.4      357.2
Petrol coke                    0.0       0.3        0.4       0.0        0.0        0.0
Bitumen                       29.0      30.9       64.3      70.0      242.0      280.0
Lubricants                     4.6       4.3       19.6      20.0       72.0       94.0
Other                          0.2       0.6       16.7      12.0       33.0       48.0
Total                         34.0      36.3      240.8     369.1    2,152.3    2,451.5


         Table 158 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020

× 1000 t/year               2007      2008       2009      2010       2015      2020
LPG                           12.0      17.9       16.6      23.9       34.7      38.6
Motor gasoline               305.8     297.0      303.8     300.0      315.0     344.0
Kerosene and jet               1.1       0.8        1.7       2.0        2.0       3.0
fuel
Naphtha                        0.0        3.5      13.4       0.0        0.0       0.0
Gas/diesel oil               796.4      859.3     848.1     933.0      979.0   1,139.0
Residual fuel oil             95.4      142.3     122.1     117.0       96.0      84.0
Petrol coke                   55.2       46.5      36.4      34.0       30.0      26.0
Bitumen                       80.5       99.6      95.0      98.0      101.0     121.0
Lubricants                    29.4       27.0      29.2      31.0       35.0      37.0
Other                          1.5        7.9      42.2      11.0       43.0      20.0
Total                      1,377.3    1,501.9   1,508.4   1,549.9    1,635.7   1,812.6




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                  187
26 April 2011
18.3. Croatia

                Table 159 Oil and Condensate Production, Croatia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                    2007       2008       2009      2010        2015      2020
Crude oil                   596.0      554.8      525.8     506.1       483.0     466.0
Other condensate            283.1      280.6      250.4     225.4       208.0     198.9
Total                       879.1      835.4      776.2     731.5       691.0     664.9


                       Table 160 Crude Oil Import, Croatia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                    2007       2008       2009       2010        2015      2020
Crude oil                  4,198.3    3,473.3    4,048.2    4,435.2     4,927.0   5,425.9


            Table 161 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                    2007      2008       2009       2010        2015      2020
LPG                           361.5     316.9      354.6      375.0       418.0     452.0
Motor gasoline              1,202.4   1,000.9    1,247.7    1,250.0     1,305.0   1,411.0
Kerosene and jet               96.5      97.1       93.7      100.0       104.0     113.0
fuel
Naphtha                       220.0     155.6      164.3      157.9       194.7     214.8
Gas/diesel oil              1,676.5   1,396.8    1,491.8    1,650.0     2,036.0   2,202.0
Residual fuel oil             898.4     934.4      877.6      950.0       261.0     282.0
Petrol coke                    45.4      31.6       29.9       32.7       574.2     621.0
Bitumen                       189.5     169.1      107.1      117.3       110.2     119.2
Lubricants                     64.8      36.9       19.7       21.6        22.5      24.4
Other                         135.5     103.8      179.3      345.4       194.4     205.6
Total                       4,890.5   4,243.1    4,565.7    4,999.9     5,220.0   5,644.9


                      Table 162 Refinery Own Use, Croatia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                   2007       2008       2009       2010        2015      2020
Refinery gas                217.4      154.5      206.9      209.8       153.9     166.4
LPG                          10.9        0.0        0.0
Residual fuel oil           282.0      194.2      252.7       256.3
Petrol coke                  67.8       57.9       69.1        70.1       239.3     258.8
Other                         6.0        0.0        2.8




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                     188
26 April 2011
                Table 163 Petroleum Product Imports, Croatia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                   2007       2008       2009       2010          2015     2020
LPG                           2.0        9.4       16.5       21.9          33.3     36.5
Motor gasoline              255.0      288.2      224.7      235.8         249.4    253.0
Kerosene and jet
fuel                           4.0       20.5        0.8       10.9      21.0         27.5
Gas/diesel oil               720.5    1,063.4      587.4      703.0     784.0        838.0
Residual fuel oil             96.8       73.2       74.9       67.2     312.0         20.8
Petrol coke                  200.4      191.6      133.2      118.0      20.0         15.0
Bitumen                       96.3      150.7      118.1      111.0     145.0        153.0
Lubricants                    29.8       30.9       30.9       32.0      34.0         38.0
Other                        323.7      246.4       68.5       39.0      56.0         58.0
Total                      1,728.5    2,074.3    1,255.0    1,338.8   1,654.7      1,439.8


                Table 164 Petroleum Product Exports, Croatia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                   2007       2008       2009       2010          2015     2020
LPG                         198.8      133.6      185.6      206.9         242.7    257.9
Motor gasoline              717.3      583.8      718.9      796.6         843.2    931.1
Kerosene and jet
fuel                           0.2        0.6        0.8        1.3       0.2          0.3
Naphtha                      188.9      129.6      141.2      132.9     167.2        183.8
Gas/diesel oil               513.2      533.2      302.0      572.0     991.1      1,150.5
Residual fuel oil            215.4      176.2      336.0      435.4       4.3        102.5
Petrol coke                   40.9       34.8       22.1       23.7     448.2        425.0
Bitumen                       56.6       73.3       21.3       56.3      44.2         48.2
Lubricants                    51.0       32.1       10.7       14.1      13.5         15.4
Other                         37.9       38.5      126.6      151.8     107.8         41.6
Total                      2,020.2    1,735.7    1,865.2    2,391.0   2,862.4      3,156.2


                    Table 165 International Bunkers, Croatia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                   2007       2008       2009       2010          2015     2020
Gas/diesel oil                4.4        0.0        1.4        0.0           0.0      0.0
Residual fuel oil            20.1       21.7        5.6        9.0          16.0     24.0
Jet fuel                     42.8       49.8       42.5       49.0          56.0     69.0




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                     189
26 April 2011
                     Table 166 Stock Changes, Croatia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                  2007      2008      2009       2010      2015      2020
LPG                          -2.4      -1.7      -1.8
Motor gasoline              -14.8      -9.0     -57.6
Kerosene and jet
fuel                          0.5      -3.2       4.1
Naphtha                       0.5       0.7       2.9
Gas/diesel oil               -2.6     -63.5      21.1
Residual fuel oil           -46.6    -194.4       3.9
Petrol coke                  -4.5       3.2      -7.8
Bitumen                      -2.4      -5.4       0.0
Lubricants                    1.5       3.2       0.0
Other                        -3.9     -31.1      71.9


       Table 167 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                  2007      2008      2009       2010      2015      2020
LPG                        162.3     191.0     183.7      190.0     208.6     230.6
Motor gasoline             725.3     696.3     695.9      689.2     711.2     732.9
Kerosene and jet            58.0      64.0      55.3       60.6      68.8      71.2
fuel
Naphtha                     31.6       26.7      26.0      25.0       27.5      31.0
Gas/diesel oil           1,876.8    1,863.5   1,796.9   1,781.0    1,828.9   1,889.5
Residual fuel oil          713.1      615.3     614.8     572.8      552.7     176.3
Petrol coke                200.4      191.6     133.2     127.0      146.0     211.0
Bitumen                    226.8      241.1     203.9     172.0      211.0     224.0
Lubricants                  45.1       38.9      39.9      39.5       43.0      47.0
Other                      417.4      280.6     193.1     232.6      142.6     222.0
Total                    4,456.8    4,209.0   3,942.7   3,889.7    3,940.3   3,835.5




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                  190
26 April 2011
18.4. FYR Macedonia

                    Table 168 Crude Oil Import, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                      2007      2008      2009      2010       2015         2020
Crude oil                    1,073.7   1,069.3   1,007.1   1,104.0    1,323.0      1,408.0


       Table 169 Net production of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                     2007       2008      2009      2010      2015         2020
LPG                             7.6       29.1      28.1      31.3      35.2         37.4
Motor gasoline                178.7      176.0     176.5     185.2     318.0        341.0
Kerosene and jet               17.2       19.4      16.0      20.6      32.0         34.0
fuel
Gas/diesel oil                 423.9     436.1     391.8      440.1     669.0        715.0
Residual fuel oil              370.2     355.8     343.2      338.2     167.0        172.0
Total                          997.6   1,016.4     955.6    1,015.5   1,221.2      1,299.4


                    Table 170 Refinery Own Use, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                     2007      2008      2009       2010      2015         2020
Residual fuel oil              84.0      83.3      80.2       88.3     101.0        108.0


                Table 171 Petroleum Product Imports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                     2007       2008      2009      2010      2015         2020
LPG                            55.9       33.7      35.2      22.7      28.8         39.7
Motor gasoline                  5.0        1.2      29.7       6.0       2.0          2.0
Kerosene and jet
fuel                            20.0       2.6      14.3        3.0          0.0       0.0
Naphtha                          0.3       0.4       0.3        0.0          0.0       0.0
Gas/diesel oil                  39.8      47.7     175.1      130.0         90.0      76.0
Petrol coke                     95.2     141.8      58.4       66.0         70.0      85.0
Bitumen                          6.8       3.6       5.3        5.0          7.4       9.0
Lubricants                       9.8       9.4       9.2        9.1         10.2      11.4
Other                            0.7       0.4       0.6        0.5          0.8       1.0
Total                          233.5     240.8     328.0      242.3        209.2     224.1




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                      191
26 April 2011
                Table 172 Petroleum Product Exports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                     2007       2008      2009      2010      2015       2020
LPG                             1.9        6.6       4.7       4.0       4.8        5.0
Motor gasoline                 66.8       75.0      69.4      76.2     200.2      210.5
Kerosene and jet
fuel                            31.7      13.5      31.2       22.1       30.7     33.0
Gas/diesel oil                 117.1     151.2     167.6      174.1      327.0    312.9
Residual fuel oil               53.8     110.5      85.9      154.4        5.5     39.0
Petrol coke                      0.0      19.2      19.9        8.0        5.0      5.0
Bitumen                          0.1       0.4       0.0        0.0        0.0      0.0
Other                            3.0       0.0       0.0        0.0        0.0      0.0
Total                          274.4     376.5     378.7      438.8      573.2    605.4


                     Table 173 Stock Changes, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                     2007       2008      2009      2010      2015       2020
LPG                             -1.4       1.3        0.8
Motor gasoline                  -2.4      18.7      -13.8
Kerosene and jet
fuel                              0.7      -2.5       2.5
Gas/diesel oil                   -3.1      29.4     -22.9
Residual fuel oil                 0.4     -23.2     -14.6
Bitumen                                     2.7
Other                            3.0


 Table 174 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                     2007       2008      2009      2010      2015       2020
LPG                            60.3       57.5      59.4      50.0      59.2       72.1
Motor gasoline                114.4      120.9     123.0     115.0     119.8      132.5
Kerosene and jet                6.2        5.9       1.6       1.5       1.3        1.0
fuel
Naphtha                          0.3       0.4       0.3
Gas/diesel oil                 343.5     361.9     376.4      396.0      432.0    478.1
Residual fuel oil              316.8     222.1     242.7      183.8      161.5    133.0
Petrol coke                     95.2     122.6      38.5       58.0       65.0     80.0
Bitumen                          6.8       5.9       5.3        5.0        7.4      9.0
Lubricants                       9.7       9.4       9.2        9.1       10.2     11.4
Other                            0.7       0.4       0.6        0.5        0.8      1.0
Total                          953.9     907.1     857.0      818.9      857.2    918.0




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   192
26 April 2011
18.5. Moldova

                   Table 175 Crude Oil Production, Moldova, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                       2007        2008       2010        2015          2020
Crude oil                       8.0        15.0       12.0        12.0          12.0


           Table 176 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                      2007        2008        2010        2015          2020
LPG
Motor gasoline
Kerosene and jet fuel
Naphtha
Gas/diesel oil                     4.0         5.0         5.0           5.0        5.0
Residual fuel oil                  7.0         7.0         7.0           7.0        7.0
Petrol coke
Bitumen
Lubricants
Other
Total                             11.0        12.0        12.0          12.0       12.0


                Table 177 Petroleum Product Imports, Moldova, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                      2007        2008        2010        2015          2020
LPG                              50.0        60.0        60.5        78.5          98.3
Motor gasoline                  205.0       213.0       219.1       254.7         293.9
Kerosene and jet fuel            20.0        21.0        21.0        26.2          31.4
Naphtha                                                   0.0         0.0           0.0
Gas/diesel oil                   357.0       371.0      390.0       469.6         556.4
Residual fuel oil                  8.0        14.0       15.1        16.5          18.6
Petrol coke                                               0.0         0.0           0.0
Bitumen                           26.0        23.0       30.0        45.2          58.8
Lubricants                        16.0        11.0       12.0        15.0          18.0
Other                              2.0         2.0        1.0         1.0           1.0
Total                            684.0       715.0      748.7       906.7       1,076.4




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                   193
26 April 2011
                Table 178 Petroleum Product Exports, Moldova, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                      2007        2008        2010         2015      2020
LPG
Motor gasoline
Kerosene and jet fuel
Naphtha
Gas/diesel oil
Residual fuel oil                  1.0        5.0
Petrol coke
Bitumen
Lubricants                         6.0        1.0
Other
Total                              7.0        6.0         0.0          0.0       0.0


                     Table 179 Stock Changes, Moldova, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                      2007        2008        2010         2015      2020
LPG                               3.0        -5.0
Motor gasoline                   -2.0        -5.0
Kerosene and jet fuel             1.0        -3.0
Naphtha
Gas/diesel oil                    -9.0        -7.0
Residual fuel oil                              1.0
Petrol coke
Bitumen                                        1.0
Lubricants                                     1.0
Other                             -1.0        -1.0


      Table 180 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                      2007        2008        2010         2015      2020
LPG                              53.0        55.0        60.5         78.5      98.3
Motor gasoline                  203.0       208.0       219.1        254.7     293.9
Kerosene and jet fuel            21.0        18.0        21.0         26.2      31.4
Naphtha                           0.0         0.0         0.0          0.0       0.0
Gas/diesel oil                  352.0       369.0       395.0        474.6     561.4
Residual fuel oil                14.0        17.0        22.1         23.5      25.6
Petrol coke                       0.0         0.0         0.0          0.0       0.0
Bitumen                          26.0        24.0        30.0         45.2      58.8
Lubricants                       10.0        11.0        12.0         15.0      18.0
Other                             1.0         1.0         1.0          1.0       1.0
Total                           680.0       703.0       760.7        918.7   1,088.4




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 194
26 April 2011
18.6. Montenegro

                Table 181 Petroleum Product Imports, Montenegro, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                    2007      2008      2009       2010      2015     2020
LPG                           19.0      13.6      14.7       16.6      20.5     22.9
Motor gasoline                55.0      64.9      65.1       67.3      70.6     71.4
Kerosene and jet
fuel                           0.8        0.9       0.3       0.3       1.0      1.4
Gas/diesel oil               137.0      189.4     180.9     192.2     223.4    260.2
Residual fuel oil            128.0      130.7      51.1      74.7      86.1     94.4
Petrol coke                   48.0       42.6      16.0      33.2      43.2     44.0
Bitumen                        3.0        4.0       2.5      15.0      34.2     32.6
Lubricants                     1.0        1.1       0.9       0.9       1.0      1.2
Total                        391.8      447.2     331.4     400.3     480.0    528.2


   Table 182 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Montenegro, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                    2007      2008      2009       2010      2015     2020
LPG                           19.0      13.6      14.7       16.6      20.5     22.9
Motor gasoline                55.0      64.9      65.1       67.3      70.6     71.4
Kerosene and jet               0.8       0.9       0.3        0.3       1.0      1.4
fuel
Gas/diesel oil               137.0      189.4     180.9     192.2     223.4    260.2
Residual fuel oil            128.0      130.7      51.1      74.7      86.1     94.4
Petrol coke                   48.0       42.6      16.0      33.2      43.2     44.0
Bitumen                        3.0        4.0       2.5      15.0      34.2     32.6
Lubricants                     1.0        1.1       0.9       0.9       1.0      1.2
Total                        391.8      447.2     331.4     400.3     480.0    528.2




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                195
26 April 2011
18.7. Serbia

                   Table 183 Oil and Condensate Production, Serbia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                       2007       2008      2009       2010        2015      2020
Crude oil                       639.0      636.1     662.7      863.0     1,352.0   1,301.0
LPG                              9.51        9.9     11.24       10.7        13.4      22.1
Other condensate                  7.3        7.5       8.2        7.8         9.8      16.1
Total                           655.8      653.5     682.2      881.5     1,375.2   1,339.2


                          Table 184 Crude Oil Import, Serbia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                        2007      2008       2009      2010        2015      2020
Crude oil                      2,586.0   2,587.0    2,281.0   2,119.3     3,435.0   4,581.0


                Table 185 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                       2007      2008       2009       2010       2015      2020
LPG                             108.2     112.7      119.0      105.0       168.4     177.6
Motor gasoline                  624.1     615.4      599.3      630.0     1,106.3   1,480.0
Kerosene and jet                 57.0      68.6       51.2       57.0        91.4     118.4
fuel
Naphtha                         252.5      254.4      144.1     146.6       240.3     206.0
Gas/diesel oil                1,065.9    1,048.7      983.3     990.0     1,827.8   2,664.0
Residual fuel oil               652.4      571.6      628.1     600.0       817.7     592.0
Bitumen                         192.2      220.3      126.3     146.6       170.3     198.0
Lubricants                        1.1        2.4        1.1       1.5         1.6       1.2
Other                            62.5       54.3        1.7      23.3         1.5       9.2
Total                         3,015.9    2,948.5    2,654.0   2,700.0     4,425.2   5,446.4


                         Table 186 Refinery Own Use, Serbia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                      2007       2008       2009      2010        2015      2020
Refinery gas                    50.0       50.6       62.0      57.2        84.3     103.7
LPG                             18.4       13.0        9.2       8.5         0.0       1.0
Residual fuel oil              204.8      175.5      171.8     158.4       203.2     250.0
Petrol coke                     35.2       35.7       34.9      32.2        58.9      71.5
Other                            0.6




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                       196
26 April 2011
                Table 187 Petroleum Product Imports, Serbia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                 2007       2008      2009       2010      2015      2020
LPG                       231.0      244.4     267.5      286.0     271.5     270.8
Motor gasoline              3.6        3.9       2.9        2.0      54.7      85.6
Kerosene and jet
fuel                         6.7        0.9       0.7        1.3       1.6       1.0
Naphtha                    284.2      244.4     187.1       75.4      70.7     126.0
Gas/diesel oil             428.3      584.8     535.4      544.3     432.0     329.8
Residual fuel oil           54.2        9.1      22.5       11.0       7.7      16.0
Petrol coke                 22.4       96.5      62.7       64.0      78.0      92.0
Bitumen                      0.0       17.4      20.4       12.7       1.7       5.0
Lubricants                  40.9       51.2      18.9       48.5      54.4      61.8
Other                        0.0        6.0       1.7       59.8      11.6      60.6
Total                    1,071.4    1,258.6   1,119.7    1,105.0     983.9   1,048.6


                Table 188 Petroleum Product Exports, Serbia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                 2007       2008      2009       2010      2015      2020
LPG                         6.3       10.2       7.5        6.0      23.0      28.0
Motor gasoline              0.0       72.1      56.8      121.0     502.0     813.0
Kerosene and jet
fuel                         9.8      17.9       17.4       16.7      38.1      41.0
Naphtha                      0.0       0.6       45.9       12.0      31.0       0.0
Gas/diesel oil              15.8       3.7       68.0       73.0     614.0   1,115.0
Residual fuel oil           41.4      72.4      109.5       32.0     224.0      19.0
Petrol coke                  0.0       0.0        0.0        0.0       0.0       0.0
Bitumen                      0.0      32.7       13.6       14.3      12.0      58.0
Lubricants                  21.2       3.3        3.3        2.0       3.0       5.0
Other                        0.0       0.2        0.2        0.0       0.0       0.0
Total                       94.6     213.1      322.1      277.0   1,447.1   2,079.0


                     Table 189 Stock Changes, Serbia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                 2007       2008      2009       2010      2015      2020
LPG                                             -10.5
Motor gasoline             -10.6       17.8     -21.5
Kerosene and jet
fuel                        -1.2       -4.0       5.9
Naphtha                    -27.4      -26.2     -95.8
Gas/diesel oil              17.1      -15.5       7.3
Residual fuel oil          -36.6       47.5      28.9
Bitumen                      4.2       15.9      -2.8




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                               197
26 April 2011
       Table 190 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                 2007      2008       2009      2010      2015       2020
LPG                       342.4     356.8      379.7     395.7     430.2      442.5
Motor gasoline            617.2     565.0      523.9     511.0     659.0      752.6
Kerosene and jet           52.8      47.6       40.4      41.6      54.9       78.4
fuel
Naphtha                    509.2     472.0      189.4     210.0     280.0     332.0
Gas/diesel oil           1,495.4   1,614.3    1,457.9   1,461.3   1,645.8   1,878.8
Residual fuel oil          628.7     555.8      570.1     579.0     601.4     589.0
Petrol coke                 22.4      96.5       62.7      64.0      78.0      92.0
Bitumen                    196.3     220.9      130.2     145.0     160.0     145.0
Lubricants                  20.8      50.2       16.7      48.0      53.0      58.0
Other                       62.5      60.2        3.3      83.1      13.1      69.8
Total                    3,947.7   4,039.4    3,374.3   3,538.7   3,975.4   4,438.1




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 198
26 April 2011
18.8. UNMIK

                Table 191 Petroleum Product Imports, UNMIK, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                 2007      2008       2009      2010      2015      2020
LPG                        18.0      26.0       44.4      44.7      61.6      66.0
Motor gasoline             79.0      87.2       91.8      78.9     107.5     120.0
Kerosene and jet
fuel                        23.0      24.9      20.1       18.0      27.5        31.5
Gas/diesel oil             222.0     202.0     241.3      244.9     294.0       363.6
Residual fuel oil           81.0      93.2     105.6       97.3     136.0       139.0
Petrol coke                                     33.1       43.8      42.0        60.0
Bitumen                     36.0      49.0      47.3       40.4      78.0        85.0
Lubricants                  16.7       6.0       5.6        5.2       8.5        11.0
Total                      475.7     488.4     589.2      573.1     755.1       876.1
Note
       Table 192 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, UNMIK, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                 2007      2008       2009      2010      2015      2020
LPG                        18.0      26.0       44.4      44.7      61.6      66.0
Motor gasoline             79.0      87.2       91.8      78.9     107.5     120.0
Kerosene and jet
fuel                        23.0      24.9      20.1       18.0      27.5        31.5
Gas/diesel oil             222.0     202.0     241.3      244.9     294.0       363.6
Residual fuel oil           81.0      93.2     105.6       97.3     136.0       139.0
Petrol coke                                     33.1       43.8      42.0        60.0
Bitumen                     36.0      49.0      47.3       40.4      78.0        85.0
Lubricants                  16.7       6.0       5.6        5.2       8.5        11.0
Total                      475.7     488.4     589.2      573.1     755.1       876.1




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 199
26 April 2011
18.9. Georgia
                  Table 193 Georgia Petroleum Product Consumption, 2007-2020

 × 1000 t/year                  2007      2008      2009      2010     2015       2020
 Refinery gas                      0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0      0.0        0.0
 LPG                              18.5      11.6      10.3       1.2    -15.1        4.5
 Motor gasoline                  387.9     410.2     466.5     539.1    696.2      892.7
 Kerosene and jet fuel            44.6      59.0      57.3      72.8     98.2      129.9
 Naphtha                           0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0      0.0        0.0
 Gas/diesel oil                  347.0     347.4     380.9     409.6    477.5      562.3
 Residual fuel oil                 0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0      0.0        0.0
 Petrol coke                       0.0       0.0       0.7       1.2      2.6        4.2
 Bitumen                         163.6     151.7     158.7     150.8    141.1      128.9
 Lubricants                       14.3      15.4      13.5      13.1     11.5        9.4
 Other                             0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0      0.0        0.0
 Total                           975.9     995.4   1,087.9   1,187.9   1,411.9    1,731.8


                Table 194 Georgian Domestic Petroleum Product Import, 2007-2020

 × 1000 t/year                  2007      2008      2009      2010     2015       2020
 Refinery gas                      0.0      0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
 LPG                              18.5     11.6      10.3       1.2     -15.1        4.5
 Motor gasoline                  387.9    410.2     466.6     539.1     696.2      892.7
 Kerosene and jet fuel            44.6     59.0      57.3      72.8      98.2      129.9
 Naphtha                           0.0      0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
 Gas/diesel oil                  347.0    347.4     380.9     409.6     477.5      562.3
 Residual fuel oil                 0.0      0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
 Petrol coke                       0.0      0.0       0.7       1.2       2.6        4.2
 Bitumen                         163.6    151.7     158.7     150.8     141.1      128.9
 Lubricants                       14.3     15.4      13.5      13.1      11.5        9.4
 Other                             0.0      0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
 Total                           975.9     995.4   1088.0    1187.9    1411.9     1731.8




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                      200
26 April 2011
18.10.              Turkey
                   Table 195 Oil and Condensate Production, Turkey, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                       2007       2008      2009       2010       2015      2020
Crude oil                       2,134      2,160     2,402
LPG                                 -          -         -
Other condensate                    -          -         -
Total                           2,134      2,160     2,402


                          Table 196 Crude Oil Import, Turkey, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                       2007       2008      2009       2010       2015      2020
Crude oil                      23,446     21,725    14,219


                Table 197 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                       2007      2008       2009       2010       2015      2020
LPG                             762         793        604
Motor gasoline                   4,098    4,562      3,963
Kerosene and jet                 2,407    2,569      2,029
fuel
Naphtha                           974        577        168
Gas/diesel oil                  7,016      7,078      5,102
Residual fuel oil               6,369      5,363      3,012
Petrol coke                         -          -          -
Bitumen                         2,286      2,244      2,010
Lubricants                        294        275        246
Other                             785        436        314
Total


                         Table 198 Refinery Own Use, Turkey, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                      2007       2008       2009      2010        2015      2020
Refinery gas                     563        493      1,189
LPG                                -          -          -
Residual fuel oil                895        708        233
Petrol coke                        -          -          -
Other                              -          -          -




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                      201
26 April 2011
                Table 199 Petroleum Product Imports, Turkey, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                 2007       2008      2009       2010      2015     2020
LPG                       2,922      2,684     3,075
Motor gasoline              578        302       205
Kerosene and jet
fuel                         137         5        621
Naphtha                        -         -       1709
Gas/diesel oil             7,942     8,333      9,117
Residual fuel oil            483       796        631
Petrol coke                    -         -          -
Bitumen                        -         -          -
Lubricants                   455       305        657
Other                          -         -          -


                Table 200 Petroleum Product Exports, Turkey, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                 2007       2008      2009       2010      2015     2020
LPG                         150         74        88
Motor gasoline            2,027      2,572     1,960
Kerosene and jet
fuel                         355       538        663
Naphtha                      100        69         28
Gas/diesel oil               579       524        395
Residual fuel oil          2,555     2,531      1,171
Petrol coke                    -         -          -
Bitumen                        -         -          -
Lubricants                     -         -          -
Other                          -         -          -


       Table 201 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Turkey, 2007-2020

× 1000 t                 2007       2008      2009       2010      2015     2020
LPG                       3,420      3,381     3,634
Motor gasoline            2,463      2,354     2,449
Kerosene and jet          2,161      2,085     1,884
fuel
Naphtha                      868       575      1,899
Gas/diesel oil            13,504    14,509     13,644
Residual fuel oil          2,867     2,503      2,128
Petrol coke                    -         -          -
Bitumen                    2,269     2,251      2,001
Lubricants                   733       591        652
Other                      1,750       591        652

Forecast data not provided forward as analysis is proprietary. Turkey’s recent
consumption is included in this section.



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                 202
26 April 2011
The Ukraine did not submit data for the study. Therefore proprietary
information and forecasts were used.




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                       203
26 April 2011
19. Appendix 2 - Economic Forecasting Assumptions
                                                        Table 202 GDP Data Used in Economic Forecasting

                                            Scale       2008     2009     2010     2011     2012     2013     2014      2015     2016      2017      2018      2019      2020
         Albania           GDP              1,000,000   7,187    6,575    6,037    6,072    6,236    6,440    6,690     7,011    7,382     7,807     8,279     8,779     9,309
                           GDP per capita   1           2,267    2,064    1,885    1,887    1,928    1,982    2,048     2,136    2,249     2,378     2,522     2,674     2,836
Bosnia and Herzegovina     GDP              1,000,000   12,665   11,642   11,012   11,137   11,635   12,183   12,670   13,177    13,836   14,528    15,254    16,017    16,818
                           GDP per capita   1           3,238    2,982    2,826    2,863    2,996    3,142    3,273     3,411    3,581     3,761     3,949     4,146     4,353
         Croatia           GDP              1,000,000   50,524   47,748   41,492   41,407   42,227   43,273   44,356   45,470    46,834   48,239    49,686    51,177    52,712
                           GDP per capita   1           11,393   10,780   9,368    9,349    9,534    9,770    10,014   10,266    10,574   10,891    11,218    11,554    11,901
         UNMIK             GDP              1,000,000   5,384    5,299    5,540    5,808    6,074    6,330    6,527     6,771    7,109     7,465     7,913     8,387     8,891
                           GDP per capita   1           2,639    2,523    2,564    2,652    2,748    2,838    2,888     2,957    3,105     3,260     3,455     3,663     3,882
Former Yugoslav Republic   GDP              1,000,000   6,223    5,858    5,806    5,919    6,154    6,363    6,580     6,812    7,084     7,368     7,662     7,969     8,288
     of Macedonia
                           GDP per capita   1           3,028    2,842    2,808    2,855    2,959    3,050    3,145     3,214    3,343     3,476     3,615     3,760     3,910
       Montenegro          GDP              1,000,000   3,290    2,937    2,710    2,752    2,887    3,016    3,127     3,236    3,365     3,534     3,710     3,896     4,091
                           GDP per capita   1           5,181    4,611    4,235    4,286    4,484    4,676    4,841     4,994    5,193     5,453     5,726     6,012     6,313
         Serbia            GDP              1,000,000   24,259   19,404   16,729   16,847   18,612   19,567   20,599   21,406    22,262   23,153    24,079    25,042    26,044
                           GDP per capita   1           3,286    2,629    2,262    2,273    2,506    2,630    2,763     2,865    2,980     3,099     3,223     3,352     3,486
        Moldova            GDP              1,000,000    901      788      723      742      770      812      867      925       980      1,039     1,101     1,167     1,237
                           GDP per capita   1            252      221      203      209      217      229      244      260       276      292       310       328       348
         Georgia           GDP              1,000,000   7,533    7,237    7,635    7,941    8,338    8,754    9,192     9,652    9,801    10,139    10,477    10,814    11,152
                           GDP per capita   1           3,047    2,865    3,230    3,592    3,995    4,443    4,941     5,496    5,637     6,013     6,389     6,764     7,140
         Turkey            GDP              1,000,000   68,404   65,197   70,283   72,813   75,507   78,376   81,480   84,739    86,536   89,187    91,839    94,490    97,142
                           GDP per capita   1           9,158    9,064    10,426   11,312   12,227   13,103   14,032   15,002    15,787   16,676    17,565    18,454    19,344
         Ukraine           GDP              1,000,000   91,983   78,094   81,008   84,676   88,742   92,730   96,758   100,660   99,693   101,993   104,294   106,595   108,896
                           GDP per capita   1           2,580    2,502    2,977    3,462    3,976    4,478    4,966     5,466    5,809     6,256     6,703     7,149     7,596
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database and Consultant's own models, All values given in constant US$



Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                                                                                                          204
26 April 2011
                                    Table 203 Albania MAED Inputs
Demography        Item                      Unit        2006        2010      2015       2020
                  Population              [million]      3.154       3.195     3.290      3.370
                  Pop. gr. Rate           [%p.a.]                     0.32      0.59       0.48
                  Urban pop.                [%]          47.559     51.200    55.000     58.200
                    Capita/hh              [cap]         3.5714      3.400     3.200      2.980
                  Rural pop.                [%]          52.441     48.800    45.000     41.800
                    Capita/hh              [cap]         4.3526      4.300     4.200      4.100
Total freight-    Item                      Unit        2006        2010      2015       2020
 kilometres
                  Freight-km             [10^9 tkm]      4.686       6.261     7.333      9.256
  Distance        Item                     Unit         2006        2010      2015       2020
  travelled
                  Dist. intracity      km/prsn/day      20.821      21.630    22.470     23.342
 Modal split of   Item                     Unit         2006        2010      2015       2020
   intracity
                  Car diesel               [%]          15.018      16.000    17.500     19.700
  passenger
transportation    Car gasoline             [%]          15.302      16.600    18.100     19.500
                  Car LPG                  [%]           0.000       1.000     1.900      2.860
                  Bus large                [%]          68.148      61.500    55.100     48.300
                  Bus small                [%]           0.000       0.000     0.000      0.000
                  Bus CNG                  [%]           0.000       1.000     2.170      3.600
                  Tramway el.              [%]           0.000       1.000     1.700      2.260
                  Trolleybus               [%]           0.000       1.000     1.620      2.230
                  Motorbike                [%]           1.531       1.900     1.910      1.550
  Factors for     Item                                  2006        2010      2015       2020
   intercity      Car ownership         [person/car]    14.011       9.660     5.740      4.150
  passenger
 transport by
      car        Car-kilometers      [km/car/yr]       8530.000   8894.671   9274.933   9671.451
 Modal split of  Item                    Unit            2006       2010       2015       2020
    public       Air plane               [%]              0.694      0.694      0.694      0.694
   intercity     Motorbike               [%]              0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
  passenger
transportation   Bus large               [%]             92.371     91.303     87.860     84.900
                 Bus small               [%]              0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
                 Bus CNG                 [%]              0.000      0.000      1.000      2.154
                 Train diesel            [%]              6.936      8.003      7.000      6.000
                 Train electric          [%]              0.000      0.000      3.446      6.252
 Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate




 Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                          205
 26 March 2011
                                    Table 204 MAED Inputs BiH
Demography        Item                   Unit        2008       2010       2015       2020
                  Population           [million]      3.521      3.543      3.591      3.622
                  Pop. gr. Rate         [%p.a.]                   0.27       0.27       0.18
                  Urban pop.              [%]         33.037    33.936     35.908     37.851
                    Capita/hh            [cap]        3.0403     3.007      2.924      2.811
                  Rural pop.              [%]         66.963    66.064     64.092     62.149
                    Capita/hh            [cap]        3.2999     3.267      3.146      2.997
Total freight-    Item                   Unit        2008       2010       2015       2020
 kilometers
                  Freight-km          [10^9 tkm]      7.838      9.520     11.790     14.530
   Distance       Item                  Unit          2008      2010       2015       2020
   travelled
                  Dist. intracity    km/prsn/day    27.51061    28.600     31.100     32.820
 Modal split of   Item                   Unit        2008       2010       2015       2020
   intracity
                  Car diesel             [%]         28.475     27.200     29.000     30.800
  passenger
transportation    Car gasoline           [%]         27.038     26.600     25.000     23.100
                  Car LPG                [%]          0.357      0.509      0.726      1.036
                  Bus large              [%]         43.646     42.000     39.700     36.700
                  Bus small              [%]          0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
                  Bus CNG                [%]          0.000      0.000      1.000      1.710
                  Tramway el.            [%]          0.000      0.000      1.000      1.368
                  Trolleybus             [%]          0.000      0.000      1.000      1.368
                  Motorbike              [%]          0.485      3.691      2.574      3.918
  Factors for     Item                   Unit        2008       2010       2015       2020
   intercity      Car
  passenger       ownership          [person/car]      6.001      5.376      4.780      3.960
 transport by
                  Car-
      car
                  kilometers          [km/car/yr]   6523.553   6800.000   7624.941   8600.000
 Modal split of   Item                   Unit        2008       2010       2015       2020
    public
                  Air plane              [%]          5.025      5.496      5.496      5.496
   intercity
  passenger       Motorbike              [%]          0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
transportation    Bus large              [%]         84.926     84.210     82.930     82.220
                  Bus small              [%]          0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
                  Bus CNG                [%]          0.000      0.000      1.000      1.710
                  Train diesel           [%]          5.025      5.296      5.496      5.496
                  Train electric         [%]          5.025      4.998      5.079      5.079




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                         206
26 March 2011
                                  Table 205 MAED Inputs Croatia
 Demography          Item                   Unit       2005       2010       2015       2020
                     Population           [million]      4.455      4.420      4.355      4.280
                     Pop. gr. Rate        [%p.a.]                   -0.16      -0.30      -0.35
                        Capita/hh          [cap]        2.9980      2.930      2.830      2.712
  Total freight-     Item                   Unit       2005       2010       2015       2020
   kilometres        Freight-km         [10^9 tkm]      16.617     20.221     24.600     29.600
    Distance         Item                   Unit       2005       2010       2015       2020
    travelled        Dist. intracity  km/prsn/day       19.811     21.000     21.700     22.800
  Modal split of     Item                   Unit       2005       2010       2015       2020
     intracity       Car diesel             [%]         21.927     24.310     24.630     25.770
   passenger         Car gasoline           [%]         34.629     29.600     28.200     25.300
 transportation
                     Car LPG                [%]          1.767      4.500      3.520      4.040
                     Car electric           [%]          0.000      0.000      0.000      0.680
                     Car CNG                [%]          0.000      0.000      3.260      5.000
                     Bus diesel             [%]         27.811     26.700     17.420     14.000
                     Bus CNG                [%]          0.000      0.000      9.000     12.000
                     Tramway el.            [%]          8.618      8.618      8.618      8.618
                     Motorbike              [%]          5.247      6.272      5.352      4.592
   Factors for       Item                   Unit       2005       2010       2015       2020
     intercity       Car
   passenger         ownership        [person/car]       3.174      2.871      2.655      2.456
transport by car Car-
                     kilometers         [km/car/yr]   8448.017   9020.616   9360.000   9540.000
  Modal split of     Item                   Unit       2005       2010       2015       2020
 public intercity    Air plane              [%]         25.863     25.330     22.878     22.878
   passenger         Motorbike              [%]          0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
 transportation
                     Bus large              [%]         59.425     64.786     63.700     60.500
                     Bus medium             [%]          0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
                     Bus small              [%]          0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
                     Bus CNG                [%]          0.000      0.000      2.500      4.000
                     Bus H                  [%]          0.000      0.000      0.000      1.000
                     Train diesel           [%]          7.356      6.000      6.000      6.000
                     Train electric         [%]          7.356      3.884      4.922      5.622
    Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate




   Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                        207
   26 March 2011
                          Table 206 MAED Inputs FYR Macedonia
 Demography       Item                   Unit       2005       2010       2015       2020
                  Population           [million]     2.034      2.041      2.037      2.025
                  Pop. gr. Rate        [%p.a.]                   0.07       -0.04      -0.12
                     Capita/hh          [cap]       3.4870      3.330      3.178      3.031
 Total freight-   Item                   Unit       2005       2010       2015       2020
  kilometres      Freight-km         [10^9 tkm]      2.580      2.800      3.800      5.330
   Distance       Item                   Unit       2005       2010       2015       2020
   travelled      Dist. intracity   km/prsn/day     14.713     15.646     16.638     17.693
 Modal split of   Item                   Unit       2005       2010       2015       2020
   intracity      Car diesel             [%]         4.662      6.800      9.800     13.900
  passenger       Car gasoline           [%]        21.599     21.700     21.440     21.100
transportation
                  Car LPG                [%]         6.070      6.510      7.420      8.260
                  Bus large              [%]        67.189     61.500     55.100     47.500
                  Bus small              [%]         0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
                  Bus CNG                [%]         0.000      1.000      2.170      3.600
                  Tramway el.            [%]         0.000      1.000      1.700      2.260
                  Trolleybus             [%]         0.000      1.000      1.620      2.230
                  Motorbike              [%]         0.480      0.490      0.750      1.150
  Factors for     Item                   Unit       2005       2010       2015       2020
   intercity      Car
  passenger       ownership         [person/car]      6.561      4.850      3.670      3.040
 transport by     Car-
      car         kilometres         [km/car/yr]   5263.622   5986.010   6807.540   7741.818
 Modal split of   Item                   Unit        2005       2010       2015       2020
public intercity Air plane               [%]          0.115      0.115      0.115      0.115
  passenger       Motorbike              [%]          0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
transportation
                  Bus large              [%]         96.496     94.300     92.600     90.700
                  Bus small              [%]          0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
                  Bus CNG                [%]          0.000      0.000      1.000      2.154
                  Train diesel           [%]          1.685      2.021      2.424      2.907
                  Train electric         [%]          1.704      3.564      3.861      4.124
Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                       208
26 March 2011
                              Table 207 MAED Inputs Moldova
Demography         Item                  Unit        2007       2010       2015       2020
                   Population          [million]      3.581      3.530      3.450      3.390
                   Pop. gr. Rate       [%p.a.]                    -0.48      -0.46      -0.35
                      Capita/hh         [cap]         2.6006     2.570      2.520      2.500
 Total freight-    Item                  Unit        2007       2010       2015       2020
  kilometres       Freight-km        [10^9 tkm]        6.443     8.000     10.600     12.900
   Distance        Item                  Unit        2007       2010       2015       2020
   travelled       Dist. intracity  km/prsn/day    6.084619      7.106      9.204     11.922
 Modal split of Item                     Unit        2007       2010       2015       2020
   intracity       Car diesel            [%]           7.383     7.800     10.700     12.920
  passenger        Car gasoline          [%]          46.160    43.400     39.800     35.800
transportation
                   Car LPG               [%]           5.206     6.000      8.000     11.300
                   Bud d.                [%]          22.068    23.000     21.000     17.500
                   Bus g.                [%]           3.378     3.555      3.871      4.216
                   Bus CNG               [%]           0.480     0.761      1.000      2.154
                   Tramway el.           [%]           0.000     0.000      0.000      0.000
                   Trolleybus            [%]          13.752    13.752     13.752     13.752
                   Motorbike             [%]           1.572     1.731      1.876      2.358
  Factors for      Item                  Unit        2007       2010       2015       2020
   intercity       Car
  passenger        ownership        [person/car]     11.739      10.360      8.450      7.030
 transport by      Car-
      car          kilometres        [km/car/yr]   4398.218    4472.405   4598.840   4728.850
 Modal split of Item                     Unit        2007        2010       2015       2020
     public        Air plane             [%]          0.000       0.000      0.000      0.000
   intercity       Motorbike             [%]          0.000       0.000      0.000      0.000
  passenger
transportation     Bud diesel            [%]         55.747      55.075     53.973     52.894
                   Bus gasoline          [%]         10.783      10.783     10.783     10.783
                   Bus CNG               [%]          0.719       0.992      1.000      1.710
                   Train diesel          [%]         16.376      15.806     14.901     14.048
                   Train electric        [%]         16.376      17.344     19.343     20.566
 Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                        209
26 March 2011
                                Table 208 MAED Inputs Montenegro
Demography         Item                     Unit        2003        2010       2015       2020
                   Population             [million]      0.634       0.640      0.648      0.653
                   Pop. gr. Rate           [%p.a.]                    0.14       0.24       0.18
                     Capita/hh              [cap]       3.6442       3.430      3.260      3.080
Total freight-     Item                     Unit        2003        2010       2015       2020
 kilometres        Freight-km           [10^9 tkm]        2.274      4.080      5.070      6.070
  Distance         Item                     Unit        2003        2010       2015       2020
  travelled        Dist. intracity    km/prsn/day     10.74115      12.163     13.773     15.597
 Modal split of    Item                     Unit        2003        2010       2015       2020
   intracity       Car diesel                [%]        10.193      12.400     14.600     16.700
  passenger        Car gasoline              [%]        79.669      64.000     55.600     45.000
transportation
                   Car LPG                   [%]          0.000     12.000     12.400     12.750
                   Bus large                 [%]          7.543     10.200     15.000     22.000
                   Bus small                 [%]          1.697      0.000      0.000      0.000
                   Bus CNG                   [%]          0.000      0.000      1.000      2.170
                   Tramway el.               [%]          0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
                   Trolleybus                [%]          0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
                   Motorbike                 [%]          0.898      1.400      1.400      1.380
  Factors for      Item                     Unit        2003        2010       2015       2020
   intercity       Car ownership       [person/car]   2003.000    2003.000   2003.000   2003.000
  passenger
 transport by
      car        Car-kilometres         [km/car/yr]   2003.000    2003.000   2003.000   2003.000
 Modal split of  Item                      Unit         2003        2010       2015       2020
    public       Air plane                  [%]         38.860      34.026     29.793     26.087
   intercity     Motorbike                  [%]          0.000       0.000      0.000      0.000
  passenger
transportation   Bus large                  [%]         18.188      30.700     37.700     43.400
                 Bus small                  [%]          4.091
                 Bus CNG                    [%]          0.000       0.000      1.000      2.154
                 Train diesel               [%]         14.573      12.203     10.218      8.557
                 Train electric             [%]         24.288      23.071     21.288     19.802
   Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate




   Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                         210
   26 March 2011
                              Table 209 MAED Inputs Serbia
Demography        Item                  Unit        2007       2010       2015       2020
                  Population          [million]      7.382      7.320      7.208      7.131
                  Pop. gr. Rate        [%p.a.]                   -0.28      -0.31      -0.21
                     Capita/hh          [cap]       2.9509      2.940      2.870      2.770
 Total freight- Item                    Unit        2007       2010       2015       2020
  kilometres      Freight-km        [10^9 tkm]      18.652     22.000     27.000     32.500
   Distance       Item                  Unit        2007       2010       2015       2020
   travelled      Dist. intracity  km/prsn/day    10.64661     11.158     12.067     13.049
 Modal split of Item                    Unit        2007       2010       2015       2020
   intracity      Car diesel             [%]        29.609     29.000     27.700     26.600
  passenger       Car gasoline           [%]        33.310     33.030     32.580     31.640
transportation
                  Car LPG                [%]        11.103     10.980     10.080      9.110
                  Bus large              [%]        24.194     25.000     26.100     27.800
                  Bus small              [%]          0.000     0.000      0.000      0.000
                  Bus CNG                [%]          0.000     0.000      1.000      2.154
                  Tramway el.            [%]          0.000     0.000      0.000      0.000
                  Trolleybus             [%]         0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
                  Motorbike              [%]          1.784     1.990      2.540      2.696
  Factors for     Item                  Unit        2007       2010       2015       2020
   intercity      Car
  passenger       ownership        [person/car]      5.091       4.700      3.900      3.360
 transport by     Car-
      car         kilometres        [km/car/yr]   6050.000    6416.770   7078.125   7807.644
 Modal split of Item                    Unit        2007        2010       2015       2020
     public       Air plane              [%]         0.000       0.000      0.000      0.000
   intercity      Motorbike              [%]         0.000       0.000      0.000      0.000
  passenger
transportation    Bus large              [%]        79.014      78.062     76.500     74.969
                  Bus small              [%]         0.000       0.000      0.000      0.000
                  Bus CNG                [%]         0.000       0.000      1.000      1.710
                  Train diesel           [%]        10.493      10.128      9.548      9.001
                  Train electric         [%]        10.493      11.810     12.952     14.319
Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate




Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                        211
26 March 2011
                                Table 210 MAED Inputs UNMIK
Demography        Item                Unit        2006         2010        2015        2020
                  Population        [million]       2.033        2.161       2.290       2.420
                  Pop. gr.
                  Rate              [%p.a.]           0.27        1.54        1.17        1.11
                     Capita/hh       [cap]         6.4500        5.550       5.000       4.510
 Total freight- Item                  Unit        2006         2010        2015        2020
  kilometres      Freight-km      [10^9 tkm]        3.000        4.330       5.800       7.670
  Factors for     Item                Unit        2006         2010        2015        2020
   intercity      Car
  passenger       ownership      [person/car]       9.100        7.730       6.190       5.080
 transport by     Car-
      car         kilometres      [km/car/yr]   10632.705    10893.094   11159.860   11433.159
 Modal split of Item                  Unit        2006         2010        2015        2020
     public       Air plane           [%]           5.078        5.078       5.078       5.078
   intercity      Motorbike           [%]           0.159        0.159       0.159       0.159
  passenger
transportation    Bus large           [%]          91.000       87.300      83.100      79.300
                  Bus small           [%]           0.000        0.000       0.000       0.000
                  Bus CNG             [%]           0.000        1.000       1.565       2.449
                  Train diesel        [%]           3.763        4.800       6.000       7.000
                  Train
                  electric            [%]           0.000        1.663       4.097       6.013
  Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate




  Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
                                                                                        212
  26 March 2011

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:3
posted:9/11/2011
language:English
pages:230