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VIEWS: 6 PAGES: 31

									Russia: A Major Player or Not?




           Pravco
        September 2002
In 1970, Airbus Did Not Exist, Today
They Have Over 50% Market Share




 Who will be the next “Airbus”?
 The manufacturers from Russia, China and India?
Is there a market for Russian
Designed and Manufactured
     Commercial Aircraft?
    Why would the World Airlines
    purchase a Russian Aircraft?
 Pricing is a third to half of the western aircraft.
 Russian aircraft use western engine and avionic
  packages.
 Newly Emerging Markets and western freight
  carriers will be the first purchasers.
 Russian aircraft are in the process of receiving
  FAA and JAA certifications.
        Russian Commercial Aircraft
         Programs and Production
   New Programs               Production Facilities
    –   RRJ Sukhoi/Boeing
                                – Aviastar -Tu-204
    –   Be-200 Beriev
    –   Tu-334 Tupolev          – Irkutsk - BE-200
    –   An-148 Antonov          – Kazan -Tu-214
    –   MTR- Ilyushin/HAL
                                – Kharkov– An-74
   Existing Programs
    –   AN-74 Antonov
                                – Kharkov -An-148
    –   Il-96 Ilyushin          – Mig/Aviant -Tu-334
    –   Tu-204 Tupolev          – Novosibirsk -RRJ
    –   Tu-214 Tupolev
                                – Voronezh -Il-96
RRJ Sukhoi 55-95 Passenger
          Russian Regional Jet
          Sukhoi/Boeing/Ilyushin
   Three models- RRJ55, RRJ75 and RRJ95
   Sukhoi is the design project leader
   Ilyushin will provide Russian civil certification
   Boeing will provide marketing, leasing, and
    assistance in design and FAA certification
   Novosibirsk is the probable production site
   Pricing is targeted to be 20% lower than western
    manufacturers
Beriev BE-200 Waterbomber
               Be-200/Irkutsk
 Two versions
   – Waterbomber (first deliveries in Russia)
   – Passenger (65 seater).
 First serial production units in assembly
   – Currently being manually assembled.
 Scheduled to receive JAA certification by the end
  of 2003
Tupolev TU-334 100 Passenger
                  TU-334/MIG
 Rosaviakosmos will fund the certification testing.
 100 passenger jet.
 Prototype in Russian certification testing.
 Co-production lines
    – Mig (Moscow)
    – Aviant (Ukraine)
   Selling price is $18 million with Russian engines.
Antonov An-148 80 Passenger
              An-148/Kharkov
   Antonov Design Bureau in Kiev Ukraine
   Final assembly at Kharkov Aviation Plant (Ukraine)
   Final assembly at Ulan-Ude Production (Russia)
   Three prototypes are currently being built
   Selling price is between $15-20 million
  MTR Multi Role Transport
Ilyushin Design Bureau and
Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.
       Multi Role Transport/HAL
   Two versions
    – 100 passenger jet
    – Military cargo
   Design and Production
    – Ilyushin Design Bureau (Moscow) is designing
      the aircraft.
    – India will invest $300 million into the program
      and sent up a production line at Hindustan
      Aeronautics Ltd.
Antonov An-74 50 Passenger
              An-74 /Kharkov
 Kharkov plant in the Ukraine will be the final
  assembly site.
 Three versions-passenger, cargo, combi.
 Aeroflot recently purchased 25 aircraft through the
  Ilyushin Finance Group.
 Risk sharing joint venture between Antonov,
  Motor Sich, Ulan-Ude and Kharkov.
Ilyushin Il-96 280 Passenger
                 Il-96/Voronezh
   Produced at the Voronezh facility.
   Received FAA certification for the cargo version.
   Western engines and avionics (17 US suppliers)
   Low production rate (less 10 aircraft/year)
   Selling Price is $70 million ($43 million US content)
Tupolev TU-204 170 Passenger
               Tu-204/Aviastar
   Currently undergoing JAA certification which will be
    completed in 2003.
   Installed modern western machine tools for fuselage
    and wing production.
   Sirocco has recently invested in $280 million.
   China purchased 10 Tu-204.
   TNT cargo (Belgium) took delivery of three Tu-204’s
   Selling price is $25 million.
Tupolev TU-214 -200 Passenger
               Tu-214/Kazan

 Kazan is the production facility
   – Tu-214 production
   – Possible Airbus fuselage production
 Low serial production plans in the next year.
 Installed modern western machine tools for
  fuselage and wing production.
 Selling price range $25 to $30 million.
    Russian Aircraft Certification
   Russian Regional Jet         FAA
   BE-200 Waterbomber           JAA
   Tu-204 passenger             JAA
   IL-96                        FAA
   An-74                        Russian
   An-148                       Russian
   Tu-334                       Russian

Russian AP-25 Type certification is similar to FAR Part 25
Comparison of Aircraft Models
 Seating    Boeing        Airbus      Russia
 50-100       RRJ          N/A     RRJ/An-148
100-110    717 or RRJ     A318       Tu-334
120-200       737       A320 series Tu-204/214
200-280       767         A330        Il-96
280-400       777         A340         N/A
  >400        747         A380         N/A
          Russian Alliances
 Airbus has partnered with Kaskol to manage $2.1
  billion in future Airbus subcontracting packages.
 Boeing has 300 Russian engineers in their
  Moscow Technical Center.
 Russia and China have signed an agreement for
  co-production of commercial aircraft.
 Other western aircraft manufacturers are exploring
  joint ventures in Russia.
                Conclusions
 Russian commercial aircraft will gain worldwide
  acceptance with western certifications.
 Access to global maintenance centers will assist in
  the selling of Russian Commercial Aircraft.
 First out of country customers will be “old Soviet
  bloc trading partners” and western freight carriers.
 Western manufacturers will continue to expand
  their presence in Russia on a sub assembly level.
             www.pravco.com
   Download-Ph.D. dissertation titled “Globalization
    of Commercial Aircraft Production: Implications
    for US Based Manufacturing Activity”

   Download-paper titled “The International
    Decentralization of US Commercial Aircraft
    Production: Implications for US Employment and
    Trade”-Canada-United States Trade Center
              Research and Service
- Canada-United States Trade Center, University at Buffalo, Occasional Paper
  No. 26, 2002, “The International Decentralization of US Commercial Aircraft
  Production: Implications for US Employment and Trade”.

- Office of Aerospace - International Trade Administration- U.S. Department of
  Commerce, briefings on Russian Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing and
  European Commercial Aircraft Production Processes, 2002

- Presidential Commission on the Future of the US Aerospace Industry,
  submitted research on industrial offsets and new global emerging aircraft
  programs, 2001.

- International Journal of Aerospace Management, October 2001.
  “Globalization of Commercial Aircraft Production: Implications to US Based
  Manufacturing Activity”.
               Research and Service


-   House of Representatives Subcommittee on Aviation, submitted research
    on Global Aircraft Production, 2001

- Speednews Aviation Conference, March 2001, “Globalization of
  Commercial Aircraft Production: Russian and Chinese Capabilities”

- Presidential Offsets Commission, submitted research on Russian and
  Chinese Aircraft Manufacturing sector, 2000.
  Contact Information
        David J Pritchard Ph.D.
        210 Sagewood Terrace
    Williamsville, NY 14221 USA
Telephone/Telefax 716-632-5657 (USA)
 E-mail: davidjpritchard@adelphia.net
     Website: www.pravco.com

								
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