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East Asian Containerport

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					                                                                                                                                                                                CONTENTS
   EAST ASIAN CONTAINERPORT                                                                   SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                                    SECTION 4 CONTAINERPORT DEMAND FORECASTS TO 2020


       MARKETS TO 2020
   The pace of growth in the East Asian containerport markets has been dramatic in
                                                                                             This provides a comprehensive summary and conclusions for the study.                               The historical relationships between growth in GDP and that in non-transshipment
                                                                                                                                                                                             container handling demand for the countries and territories of East Asia are examined in
                                                                                                                                                                                             this Section. A framework is established for the two main economic cases, which are used
                                                                                                                                                                                             in forecasting containerport demand in the report. GDP forecasts to 2020 are provided by
recent years. Is this growth sustainable?                                                     SECTION 2 DRIVING FORCES AND STRATEGIC ISSUES
                                                                                                                                                                                             country or territory.
   Exports from China to the US and Europe are underpinning the growth of China’s                                                                                                               Containerport demand forecasts to 2020 are presented for each country or territory:
manufacturing industry and drawing in imports of raw materials and intermediate                 The Section reviews the broad macroeconomic framework within which trade in
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Non-transshipment container handling demand forecasts are based on the anticipated
products from other parts of the world, in turn providing the earnings for other countries   containerised goods has expanded. After four decades of expansion, can the containerised              relationship with GDP growth, in view of the expected patterns of market maturation;
to import more consumer goods too. But, China’s exports to the developed countries are       trades continue their pattern of rapid growth? This Section seeks to address this question         • Transshipment demand forecasts are derived from their anticipated relation to the
not balanced by equal flows of imports from these regions. The US trade deficit with         by analysing factors which could limit expansion.                                                     aggregated non-transshipment demand of each sub-region, in view of the roles of
China, in particular, is causing concern and raising the possibility of protectionist           The changing structure of the containerport industry is also considered, covering such             increasing vessel size, individual carrier decisions, available port capacity and other
measures. Unless trade flows are brought into balance through better management of           issues as increasing vessel size and port depth, transshipment, the role of international
exchange rates and the domestic US economy, the likelihood of a short-term shock to                                                                                                                regional factors in converting direct to transshipped flows.
                                                                                             stevedoring companies and carriers in terminal operation, as well as carrier alliances and         A third scenario is presented to reflect the increased risk of a short-term shock to trade
trade is increased.
                                                                                             regional shipping trends.                                                                       interrupting the future continuation of current growth trends.
   This new study by OSC analyses the development of containerport demand in East
Asia and provides new forecasts to 2020. It includes an “increased-risk” scenario to
reflect the possibility of a protectionist or other shock to trade.                                                                                                                           SECTION 5 CONTAINERPORT INVESTMENT PLANS TO 2015
   The outlook is, nevertheless, for continued strong demand growth focused on exports
                                                                                              SECTION 3 DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL CONTAINERPORT DEMAND
from China driving deep-sea, intra-regional and transshipment trades, and increasing                                                                                                            Port investment is continuous in most of East Asia, to cope with the year-on-year
import demand driven by the growing prosperity of the region’s developing countries.            Detailed analysis of the development of containerport demand in East Asia is provided        growth in container trade. China’s port investment plans are particularly breathtaking.
   The major regions covered in this study are:                                              in this Section. Demand trends are analysed by port for the following port regions:                The Section presents a comprehensive review of current containerport investment
                                                                                                Northeast Asia: Containerport demand increases in this region are being powered by           projects, which provides the basis for a reasonable indication of future capacity
    Northeast Asia:                                      Southeast Asia:
                                                                                                                                                                                             development to 2015. (Beyond such a timescale, investment plans become too speculative
    • Japan                     • Northeast China        • Singapore     • Philippines       rapid economic growth in northeast China, China’s most recent growth region, as well as
    • South Korea               • Far East Russia        • Malaysia      • Vietnam                                                                                                           to derive capacity forecasts by this method.)
                                                                                             continuing economic growth and transshipment demand in South Korea and a measure of
    East East Asia:                                      • Indonesia     • Myanmar           recovery in the Japanese economy.
    • East & Southeast          • Taiwan                 • Thailand      • Brunei                                                                                                             SECTION 6 CONTAINERPORT CAPACITY AND SUPPLY/DEMAND FORECASTS
                                                                                                East East Asia: China’s Yangtze region and Guangdong province are the principal
      China                     • Hong Kong
                                                                                             powerhouses for growth in this port region. Whilst containerport demand continues to               By aggregating the planned capacity additions from the foregoing Section, the implied
   Transshipment has been a major aspect of world containerport demand in recent
                                                                                             increase at an extraordinary rate in China, there are questions about the continued potential   development of container handling capacity at regional ports is detailed here.
years. This report provides detailed analysis and forecasts of the development of
regional transshipment markets and examines the driving forces in each transshipment         for growth in Hong Kong and Taiwan.                                                                The anticipated supply/demand balance for container handling is quantified in terms of
region.                                                                                         Southeast Asia: Recent containerport demand growth in this region has focussed on            forecast port capacity and throughput to 2015. From this, indications of future port
   On the supply side, the position of current investment projects and plans is reviewed     transshipment throughput in Singapore. Growth at other regional ports appears to have           utilisation are derived, and likely areas of excess capacity or shortfall are identified.
in detail. The resultant prospective development of port capacity is quantified to 2015.     slowed down. It is not clear yet whether this was merely a short-term hiccough or a
This provides the basis for comparing demand and supply, in order to identify potential      longer-term trend as export activity shifts to China.                                            SECTION 7 CONTAINERPORT PRODUCTIVITY BY COUNTRY OR TERRITORY
surplus capacity or shortfalls. The level of capacity utilisation will indicate the likely
direction of container handling prices.                                                         The evolution of regional container transshipment markets is also summarised in this           This Section analyses the development of containerport facilities by country or territory,
   Containerport productivity is analysed by country or territory, in terms of TEUs per      Section, for each of the above port regions. In Northeast Asia, transshipment is driven by      in terms of the length of quayage devoted to container handling and the number of
metre of container quays, and TEUs per quayside container gantry crane.                      feeder (hub-and-spoke) demand for Japanese ports and the growth in interlining for              quayside container gantry cranes.
   OSC has been actively involved in many major projects in these markets in the recent      Chinese ports. In East East Asia, hub-and-spoke is the main form of transhipment serving          This development is compared with throughput to reveal the implied average
past; this new study provides a complete update and reappraisal of the market situation      ports in the Philippines, China and elsewhere in the region. In Southeast Asia, hub-and-        productivity per metre of container quay and per container gantry crane, for each country
and anticipated conditions in the period to 2020.                                            spoke and relay (between east-west and north-south services) are both important.                and territory.
                                                       ORDER FORM                                                                                                                              EAST ASIAN                                                         EAST ASIAN




                                                                                                                                                       CONTAINERPORT MARKETS TO 2020
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EAST ASIAN CONTAINERPORT MARKETS TO 2020
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Address ......................................................................................................................................                                                                                                              s Containerport Demand and Developments by Port
....................................................................................................................................................                                   ‘Shipping Profitability to 2015’                                     s Forecast Demand to 2020 by Country/Territory
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posted:9/8/2011
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