ISSN 0919-9748 Winter 2005 No.48 Opinion Abolition of Nuclear Weapons Could Be Initiated Now through Calm Reflection Lecture Post Arafat: Palestinian Situation and Middle East Oil Problems Interview Nuclear Power Station, Wind Power and Hot Springs Council for Nuclear Fuel Cycle Contents Winter 2005 No.48 • Opinion Council for Nuclear Fuel Cycle 1 Abolition of Nuclear Weapons Could Be Initiated Now through Calm Reflection TBR Bldg. 303, - 60th Anniversary of Nuclear Bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki - 2-10-2, Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0014, Japan • Interview TEL : 81-3-3591-2081 2 Nuclear Power Station, Wind Power and Hot Springs FAX : 81-3-3591-2088 Interview with Mayor Kiyokichi Nakamoto of Ikata Town, Ehime Pref. E-Mail firstname.lastname@example.org Web Site http://www.cnfc.or.jp/ • Lecture 8 Post Arafat: Palestinian Situation and Middle East Oil Publisher Problems Jun-ichi Nishizawa Hirokazu Oikawa Executive Editor • Pluto 46 Shigeru Goto 22 Smell of Old Books Editorial Office Shigeru Goto Council for Nuclear Fuel Cycle • Info-Clip 21 Major Step toward Commercial Operation - Uranium Testing Conducted at Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant - CNFC Members of the Board 24 Commercial Operation Starts at No. 5 Hamaoka NPS Chairman NISHIZAWA, Jun-ichi President, Iwate Prefectural University Former President, Tohoku University Acting Chairman TSUSHIMA, Yuji Member of the House of Representatives Directors GOTO, Shigeru Former Member of the House of Representatives IMAI, Ryukichi Former Ambassador Extraordinary & Plenipotentiary, Conference on Disarmament (Geneva) Professor, Kyorin University NAKATANI, Gen Member of the House of Representatives OHATA, Akihiro Member of the House of Representatives OSHIMA, Tadamori Member of the House of Representatives TANABU, Masami Member of the House of Councilors WATANABE, Shu Member of the House of Representatives Cover : Wasabi Fields in Azumino, Nagano Prefecture In these wasabi (horseradish) fields, where the snow from the Japanese Northern Alps flows as spring water, the water temperature is around 13 degrees centigrade all year around. Wasabi is a Japanese plant that is very difficult to grow, having to make a shade in the summer to keep them cool and in the winter to avoid the cold wind. To even put it on the market as a product it takes more than two years, but it surely is a supporting ingredient that is Date of Issue : February 17, 2005 necessary for sushi. The clean water and clean air needed for wasabi is also necessary for human beings. Designed by QB System Co., Ltd. Printed by ASAHI BUSINESS CO., LTD. Abolition of Nuclear Weapons Could Be Initiated Now through Calm Reflection - 60th Anniversary of Nuclear Bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki - It has been reported that more than 240,000 of nuclear weapons, unless we abolish them weapons. Great Britain and France are coun- people have lost their lives through the tidal totally, there is no meaning to any nuclear tries that could most quickly make the bold wave and other consequences of the earth- bombing countermeasures. decision to abolish their nuclear weapons quake, the magnitude of 9.0 on the Richter The second term of the Bush administra- among the nuclear weapons states. The scale off the cost of Sumatra Island on tion started from January 20. Policy to pro- antagonism between the eastern and western December 26 of last year. However, casual- tect the image of the U.S. as strong and at Europe is far in the past. What is the reason ties continue to increase even now. We pray the top, even by continuing preemptive that UK and France still possess nuclear for divine aid to the victims and their families. action will continue for another four years. weapons? There is none whatsoever. Casualties from the tsunami include man- The possibility that this America would I ask for Prime Minister Blair and made calamities of "didn't know, didn't care, abolish nuclear weapons, especially under President Chirac to announce their abolition didn't take precautions," but the death of the Bush administration is not "close to 0%" of nuclear weapons within this year. How more than 240,000 people goes beyond ver- but is clearly 0%. The arms reduction talks about at the NPT Review Conference in bal expression. I think that many Japanese between the U.S. and Russia has, some way May? Could you not make this decision for people recalled the number of victims in or other, progressed to a certain extent. nuclear abolition for the sake of Great Hiroshima and Nagasaki when they heard Their more than 30,000 warheads have Britain, France, the world as a whole, and this number. become several thousand in each country, for the human race while you are in power? In the statement of claim data that so it looks as is the arms reduction is indeed I aspire that you would make a bold deci- Hiroshima and Nagasaki Cities submitted to progressing. However, the main reason for sion that would go down in history. Such a the U.N. Secretary-General in 1976, it was this is the breakdown in the balance of the decision would make people reevaluate the estimated that approximately 200,000 peo- cold war and of nuclear weapons through value of nuclear weapons, which have ple in Hiroshima and more than 100,000 the collapse of national economy, and defi- become mystified, and make known to the people in Nagasaki died by the end of 1950. nitely not through any conscious effort to folly of developing and possessing weapons In addition, in these both cities, several tens abolish weapons of mass destruction. that cannot be used for humanitarian pur- of thousands of Koreans and North Koreans, poses. And if the U.S., Russia, China, and several hundred Chinese and several hun- This year is the 60th anniversary of the India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea are dred allied forces prisoners as well as dozens nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and made of people with common sense, then I of foreign nationals also suffered from the Nagasaki. The Review Conference for the am convinced that the decision of Great nuclear bombings. The ratios of the causes Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) will Britain and France will lead them toward of death within a 1.2 km radius of the blast be held in this May. However, with regard to nuclear abolition as well. All around the center were 20% from blast wounds, 60% of the content of deliberation, there is still no world, people will celebrate the presentation burns from heat waves and secondary fires, agreement. Through the unlimited extension of the Nobel Peace Prize to you. and 20% from radiation injury. of this treaty resolved in 1995, it could be that It is possible to expose the whole earth the people's understanding of the importance with tidal waves of bomb blasts, heat waves Injury from tsunami can be held at a min- of this treaty has decreased. In order to main- and radiation many times over with the over imum through the positive support toward tain the treaty and bring peace to the world, it ten thousand nuclear weapons that are in disaster prevention countermeasures by is necessary for nuclear weapons states to present possession. When this happens, will countries advanced in this area such as speedily conduct their own nuclear arms anyone survive? I hope for the abolition of Japan, and preparation toward tsunami by reduction to accomplish nuclear abolition. nuclear weapons at the earliest possible date. the next earthquake. That is what we in We cannot abolish earthquakes, but it is Japan have done. However, with the case up to human beings to abolish nuclear Editor Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 1 Interview EHIME Ikata Town Nuclear Power Station, Wind Power and Hot Springs Interview with Mayor Kiyokichi Nakamoto of Ikata Town, Ehime Pref. areas that there is no suitable land At the foot base of the longest and narrowest peninsula in Japan, Sada-misaki there, so we thought that a nuclear Peninsula, there is a town called Ikata-cho. Here, Ikata nuclear power station, which power plant might be possible, and is the exclusive one in the Shikoku region, is in operation. In fiscal year 2003, the we started an invitation campaign. Ikata nuclear power station generated 51% of the total electricity of Shikoku Electric At that time, Shikoku Electric Power Co., Inc. Ikata-cho is the town that has developed around the plant. We had a Power Co., Inc. conducted geological time to converse with Mayor Nakamoto. (Editor) survey in a town called Tsushima- cho, which was called Iwamatsu-cho at that time, and is now located in the south of Uwajima. However, the Wish to Have School Buildings junior high schools, there were six bedrock was unstable, and moreover, Reinforced nursery schools, five elementary residents in the community cam- schools and two junior high schools, paigned strongly against the con- -- I believe that you have done a lot but all of them consisted of wooden struction plan, so the electric power so far toward the building of the buildings. This area has always company was looking for a suitable nuclear power station in Ikata-cho. been hit by typhoons, so the lifespan location. In that situation, Gamoda- How would you evaluate the relation- of the facilities tends to be short. misaki in Tokushima Prefecture and ship between Ikata-cho and the Every year, we have had to renovate Ikata-cho both launched invitation nuclear power station? two or three buildings. The finances campaigns. As a result, the company Mayor Nakamoto: What triggered our of the town cannot sustain this, and I decided that Ikata-cho was suitable. invitation to build a nuclear power thought that if we were to build rein- At the time of the invitation to build plant in Ikata-cho was that the forced buildings, at least, it might the Ikata nuclear power plant, the financial capacity of the town was lead to a longer lifespan and a better safety problems of nuclear power too fragile at that time, and so we financial situation, to a certain plants were not yet a social issue, were trying to establish a financial degree. For that purpose, even and therefore we had the sense that base, somehow. At that time, in though we attempted to attract nuclear power plant was a manufac- Ikata-cho, with regard to educational enterprises, the region has such a turing facility, the same as any gen- facilities, from preschool education to steep incline in the remote rural eral industry. 2 Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 Interview When former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi visited the Ikata nuclear power station, I explained to him, "This is nuclear power station for which we had to undertake a campaign to have it located here. For those of us who carried out the campaign at that time, we shared the same goal: to secure the safety of the power plant, and to ensure its safe and stable operation. Those responsibilities are also ours." The invitation to build the nuclear from a worldwide perspective, it was an incident leading to the destruction power plant was initiated before the an excellent power plant with high of the living environment for resi- accidents of Three Mile Island and availability factors. When a steam dents, by contaminating the sur- Chernobyl. I think that, looking generator was being manufactured rounding environment with radioac- back at the experience, the financial for the unit No.2 reactor, I had a tivity; I think that is pretty good. effects of this power plant have been chance to visit Kobe Shipyard & Sister City Relationship with an fully achieved, as far as our initial Machinery Works of Mitsubishi American Town with Nuclear Power purposes for the development of the Heavy Industries, Ltd, and I asked Station area are concerned. Our town has the manager, "The nuclear power been able to undertake infrastruc- plant in Ikata-cho has very good per- -- I'm sure that people in your town ture development to a certain degree, formance among the power plants have received various types of edu- and compared to neighboring cities that your company has sold. What cation. For example, at elementary and towns, we are keeping the elec- do you think the reason is?" The schools, and junior and senior high tricity charges for residents low. In manager replied, "Shikoku Electric schools, especially in the case of ele- that sense, I think the initial objec- Power Company is the largest of the mentary and junior high school stu- tive has been accomplished. local corporations among the four dents, are they provided a specific Shikoku prefectures, so I guess the education on nuclear energy that Ikata Nuclear Power Station Is a top class personnel among the four makes the most of the distinctive fea- Valuable Asset Shikoku prefectures are gathered tures of Ikata-cho? -- I suppose Ikata-cho and the there. They must be keenly aware Mayor Nakamoto: We have a facility nuclear power station will proceed as that this is a valuable asset for called the Nuclear Information Center parties sharing a common interest them." It showed very good perform- that was financed by Ehime from now on. What do the people of ance until that time. Prefecture, Ikata-cho and Shikoku the town think of the nuclear power Later, after the unit No.3 reactor Electric Power Company, and as one of station? started operation, a steam pressure its yearly activities, they invite chil- Mayor Nakamoto: Local residents have relief valve of different standard was dren on site to hold a sketching con- been associated with the nuclear used, causing a malfunction. At that test. Not only children from Ikata-cho, power station for a long time, and time, the people who lived near the but children of neighboring Honai-cho even though the station has had station phoned me and I rushed to the and Seto-cho, participate together in some troubles, we have never experi- station. Without going inside the sta- the sketching contest, and we judge enced trouble leading to the pollution tion, I went nearby and heard a really and give prizes to them. However, of the environment. After the unit 1 horrible thundering noise as if a jet regarding science and basics of nuclear reactor started operation, we initial- engine was on. Even though this energy such as uranium, we do not ly received a high evaluation, that kind of thing happened, we never had provide education specific to Ikata-cho. Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 3 However, what Ikata-cho pro- also inland, so in winter, it gets very of the district are working. motes specifically regarding educa- cold, but it is a secure and quiet Moreover, our town financed 49% in tion is to have a sister city relation- town. There is good communication setting up of a company called ship with Red Wing, Minnesota, among people in the town. We "Create Ikata" of the third party cor- U.S. In this town, Northern State thought it would be all right to estab- poration, to which the Ikata Service, Power Company owns the Prairie lish a sister city relationship and town fishermen's union, agricultural Island Nuclear Power Plant. Ikata- send our children there, and we union and commerce and industry cho has been sending 10 junior high decided to exchange students after cooperative jointly contributed. Such school students for a homestay pro- discussing this with them. town people-centered companies gram every year. Last year, it was I went there last year, too. have been establishing a very close already the 10th year. However, I surely could not recognize relationship daily with the power Also, as for our town itself, we the faces of the general public in Red plants of Shikoku Electric Power. have people who have teaching Wing, but they remembered me and Therefore people in the town had a licenses but have not yet found jobs, said "hello" to me cheerfully. The high degree of understanding about and we have employed two in each of town has many residents who are the uses of plutonium in power plant the full-time teaching assistant posi- social, characteristic of Americans, this time. Also, they responded tions, for English and Mathematics but who are still simple country folk, favorably. I think such factors are respectively. The purpose of this is with a pioneering spirit. It is a very fundamental. to study important subjects well, in good town. -- So, you think a close relationship order to prevent dropouts. As a with power company on a daily basis Trustful Relationship with Power result, there is a school with a high is the best way to develop trust, don't Company Is the Foundation rate of successful applicants to uni- you? versity, called the Yahatahama High -- After your talk, I sense that peo- Mayor Nakamoto: Yes, that's right. School, in nearby Yahatahama City, ple in Ikata-cho in usual way coexist Needless to say, residents know that where the passing rate from our jun- with the nuclear power plant. Last a primary factor in the town's stable ior high school to this high school year, you approved the uses of ura- finances is the tax revenues from the seems to be quite high. They must nium-plutonium Mixed Oxide (MOX) nuclear power plant. have achieved a higher level of aca- fuel in the Ikata nuclear power plant. -- From April 1 of this year, 3 demic ability, I suppose. While other towns had difficulties in towns, Ikata, Seto and Misaki, are -- If there is a nuclear power plant deciding, how were you able to make going to be consolidated to establish in your town, and when you go over- a prompt decision? a new Ikata Town with a little less seas, you will be aware to some Mayor Nakamoto: The Shikoku Electric than 13,000 people. In that case, will degree that your town has a facility to Power Company is a small corpora- you adopt opinions from residents of produce energy, I suppose. tion, ranking second or third from the Seto and Misaki? Mayor Nakamoto: Well, I'm not sure bottom among domestic power com- Mayor Nakamoto: Regarding matters about that. When we asked children panies, but due to its small size, the on nuclear power, people living in who participated in the homestay company can pay close attention to the present Ikata-cho understand program for ten days in Red Wing to minor problems. I value that aspect. better than those who live in Seto write a composition after they came As one example, there is a company and Misaki. Therefore, with regard back, all of them wrote that they called "Ikata Service", which is a joint to the power plant and its related were deeply impressed, but they did- venture of Shikoku Electric and its problems, Ikata residents will n't seem to be aware that both towns subsidiary, the town fishermen's inevitably become the leaders. I had nuclear power plants. union, the agricultural union and the think we will move forward in that The Red Wing is a very old town in commerce and industry cooperative. direction. They did agree on consoli- U.S. It is located at latitude similar Now, there are 170 to 180 employees, dation after they acknowledged the to Wakkanai, Hokkaido, and it is and among them, 120 to 130 people situation. 4 Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 Interview Leader Should Make Policy Looking Security Research of the Ministry of services of Ikata-cho. In this regard, Steadily to Future Health, Labour and Welfare, the we are going to adjust certain items population in Ikata-cho of at present in three or five years, so after five -- In fact, it was quite hard for a 6,500 people, if nothing is done, will years we might face a problem of town with a nuclear power plant to decrease to 1,400 people in year increased burden after consolidation. consolidate with other towns, and if it 2050. There is data that the number However, taking every factor into takes place, public services to resi- of babies born in a single year will consideration, foreseeing our future dents are decreased, etc.; didn't you decrease to about four. and thinking of our children and worry about this? I told residents, "This number is grandchildren, we decided that we Mayor Nakamoto: In initial stages, we just a statistical number, it might should consolidate now. I think it met with strong opposition. not necessarily be like this, but it was a judgment using long-range However, we are rapidly faced with a will be pretty close. It is certain that prospects. low birthrate and an aging popula- it will become quite difficult to main- Central Government Should Go to tion. Also regarding our small nurs- tain the functions of a local govern- Even Smallest Towns and Persuade ery schools, which have only five to ment through the support of its own Them six children, residents feel it in their finances only. If we try to consoli- bones. From only the standpoint of date with other towns at such a time, -- On behalf of Ikata-cho, do you finance, Ikata-cho will be able to sur- it will be an incorporated consolida- have anything to request under the vive for the next 10 years without tion." I tried to persuade them that I government's energy policy and consolidation of towns. However, think that we should consolidate nuclear power policy? after 10 years, there is no guarantee with neighboring Seto and Misaki Mayor Nakamoto: We trust in the pres- that Ikata-cho will not experience a now, and prepare ourselves to deal ent scientific technology in Japan sudden decrease in population, due with the next consolidation, under and the government's policies, but I to the low birthrate as now. the consolidation exemption law, want our government to educate citi- According to data from National then the government will take some zens about nuclear energy matters Institute of Population and Social kind of counter-measures and protec- and deepen our understanding more tive measures, and it is a bet- aggressively. On that point, a coun- ter idea to make use of those, try cannot adapt quickly, and I and eventually we reached an assume it might be difficult to imple- agreement to consolidate. ment detailed policies. I feel that -- Whether or not you con- local communities are somehow sider the situation of your town forced upon our government. After in 10 years, this is a big turning all, taking advantage of nuclear point, isn't it? All over Japan, energy is promoted based on a law, there are dozens of local gov- Atomic Energy Basic Law, so in the ernments with nuclear power spirit of this law, I think our govern- plants, but some of them are ment should intervene in even the having a dispute. smallest unit. Mayor Nakamoto: Regarding -- Looking at the news in the press, conditions for the consolida- just because it is nuclear energy, tion, such as utility rates and there is a tendency for there to be a taxes and public dues, Ikata- big headline. When that happens, cho is going to be set as the the competent authorities in our gov- standard. So, consolidation ernment sometimes seem to avoid will not lead to a reduction in speaking out on nuclear energy prob- the present administrative lems. Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 5 Mayor Nakamoto: Sometimes it is a case-by-case thing, and depending on the people in charge in our govern- ment, they handle it in various ways. However the residents in Ikata-cho in particular, seem to be still ingenuous and ideologically naïve, so if a person in authority comes and has a heart- to-heart talk with us, we will wel- come. In my opinion, they sometimes seem to stay clear before stepping in. Last year, commissioners of the Atomic Energy Commission of Japan -- I guess it reached such an through joint financing from Ikata- (AEC) came to Ikata-cho and heard atmosphere, thanks to a long-time cho and Eco-power, which is a sub- from residents on matters on the uses relationship of trust. sidiary of Ebara Corporation, 12 of plutonium in nuclear power plant. Mayor Nakamoto: I agree. In Ikata-cho, units with 1,500 kW per each will be At that time, commissioners were needless to say, there are full-time built. Misaki-cho plans to build 20 pleased that they felt a very good farmers and fishermen. There are units with 1,000 kW per each along atmosphere at that place, and they people who have no association with with Marubeni Corporation. In this went back. At the Ikata nuclear the nuclear power station, but there way, this peninsula will become an power station, in a safety agreement is a town growing around the energy base. This will become an concluded among Ehime prefecture, nuclear power station. Companies in independent source of revenue for Ikata-cho and Shikoku Electric Power, secondary industries, construction three towns. In comparison with "the requirement to obtain approval business, retail stores in distribution new local governments that have from residents when changes of plant and guesthouse inevitably have built experienced consolidation, we receive related items are applied for" is a relationship with the nuclear tax revenues from the nuclear power included, so we had a discussion with power station. plant, so I think that we will be able the residents beforehand. to manage as a financially secure Community Development Using Wind -- It definitely works better that way, local government. Also, we found a Power and Hot Springs doesn't it? hot spring. Mayor Nakamoto: I guess so. Since we Mayor Nakamoto: In the region to be -- You couldn't ask for a better were in the midst of the consolida- consolidated this time, very high opportunity. tion stage, I told the AEC not to quality citrus fruits and fish are pro- Mayor Nakamoto: When we dug down come. That was a suggestion from duced. There is no question that to 1,500m, the hot spring was found, the governor of Ehime prefecture. such primary industries are the local and it is 46.3 degree Celsius at Shikoku Electric Power was hesitant and basic industries of the town. ground level. So, you don't have to since it remained unable to promise Moreover, at the Sada-misaki penin- heat the water. 180 liters flows per what would happen, and also they sula, the wind blows often. minute, which fills one oil drum. would be at a loss if it got chaotic at Therefore, now at Seto-cho, 11 wind Honorary Professor of Hokkaido a hearing when an opposition faction power units with 1,000 kW per each, University, Dr. Yuko Agishi is a surely participated. However, fortu- using a third sector system incorpo- leading expert in hot spring climato- nately, such a thing never happened. rated with Mitsubishi Heavy logical medicine. After a drilling -- The result was all right, wasn't it? Industries, Ltd. are operated. In service person sent him an analysis Mayor Nakamoto: As a result, that it Ikata-cho, two units with 850 kW per table, I received an e-mail reply from was good to have that process, I each are being built and are man- him, and it said "This hot spring is think now. aged by the town. Furthermore, very high quality and you can even 6 Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 Interview drink it. Japanese hot springs gen- I guess if you are a Japanese person, pleased that their back and knee erally have 10 kinds of ingredients, you may not feel clean without scrub- pains are cured, upon spending two some only have five to six of them, bing yourself with a soapy towel. hours at the hot spring. but this hot spring has 16 ingredi- Enthusiasts say to me, "Mr. Mayor, -- It has become a therapeutic bath, ents. Moreover, there are no toxic this is the best. Please leave it as it is. hasn't it? substances. So please take good care Don't allow anyone to use soap." Mayor Nakamoto: It is quite all right of it." We are planning utilization Up to 1,400m below the surface, like that. If they use it for that pur- methods and we built a temporary the geological stratum in this area is pose, we can reduce the subsidy for bath house. We charge 100 yen for called Iyo's blue stones, and green National Health Insurance. People residents and 200 yen for people out stones can be found there, consisting who used to use a hospital as their of the town. About a little over 100 of green mud schist. It is a quartz salon now use a hot spring instead; people come every day. and black schist layer. If you dig reducing the town's expenses is very We have mandarin oranges. We deeper than 1,400m, it gets soft and helpful. Also, when we have a better have fish. We have the sea. We a drilling serviceman told me, "It facility, tourists and users who are have a pond. Near the pond, the pre- changes to a tuff stratum." So I from out of town will visit us, so we fecture is designing a water park. I checked an encyclopedia to find out will naturally receive bath taxes for plan to create a hot spring facility what a tuff stratum is. I found out our town. that becomes the core of the local that it means a solid mass of volcanic -- It would be good to have a better community vitalization. ashes. The word tuff in Japanese facility soon, wouldn't it? characters consists of hardening and Mayor Nakamoto: We asked Dentsu Hot Spring with 100% Natural Source ashes. I asked the serviceman if it is Inc. to create a basic plan, and based -- You couldn't ask for a better possible to treat it as a hot spring on the plan, we are proceeding with opportunity. We are now encounter- from a volcanic zone, since a tuff is a a design competition now. Seven ing a hot spring trend, but it is best if stone made of solidified volcanic companies are participating so far. you don't have to dilute the water or ashes. He answered, "Yes. You are On January 14, we plan to hold the heat it. correct." first explanatory meeting and Mayor Nakamoto: Indeed. We never When they dug up to close to screening of candidates. heat up the water with a boiler nor 1,500m, they encountered a white -- It must be interesting and very do we need to dilute it. We organ- limestone layer. A limestone layer promising. I think it is wonderful for ized a senior citizen's group in that consists of the stalagmites of a lime- the people who are in charge of the area in charge of its management at stone cave, doesn't it? The limestone town's finances to have a project that present. We add more hot spring contained in water running from the brightens your prospects. It will give water when it gets lukewarm and ancient times adheres to the stratum you a sense of energy for thinking reduce the amount when it gets too of the limestone cave. Therefore, about the area's development, I think. hot. We adjust the temperature of there is a lot of water, and also when Mayor Nakamoto: That's right. If you water by the amount of erupted hot digging down to the 1,500m zone, the strike a hot spring, it really gives you water. It keeps flowing and stays subterranean heat is raised quite a dream. It also serves as a means of pure without any mixing. high. I am saying that we have hit employment and for the local con- Therefore, the natural source of the upon a hot spring that has a lower sumption of local farm and marine hot spring runs and flows into a pond probability of being found than a products. It also becomes source for endlessly, and we urge people not to hole-in-one in golf. information dissemination through use shampoo. The spring is mildly visitors. Depending on how you deal Hot Spring Becomes Salon for Elderly alkaline, and detergents are usually with it, you can achieve really effec- alkaline. I hear that you can get rid of Mayor Nakamoto: This is a valuable tive management and operations. fat on your skin by taking a dip for a asset to our town. We can hand it However, it definitely presents us while, without using soap. However, down to posterity. Elderly people are with challenges. Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 7 Lecture Post Arafat: Palestinian Situation and Middle East Oil Problems Hirokazu Oikawa Professor, Faculty of General Policy Studies Kyorin University 1948, the first Middle East War broke Since Palestinian Authority President Arafat passed away on November 11, 2004, out and Israel gained national inde- various assessments have been in circulation: for instance, that even Mr. Arafat was pendence. As a result of the war, it was unable to realize peace with Israel, or that he was the very reason for the fact that the Jordanian Army that occupied the peace was not realized. On November 18, a research committee of CNFC invited West Bank. Jordan annexed the West Professor Hirokazu Oikawa, who has lived in the Middle East for 25 years, teaching Bank immediately; with the natural at Hebrew University, as well as taking an active role as a journalist. (Editor) result that Palestinians who lived in the West Bank gained Jordanian citi- zenship. However, many people lived in Gaza and Egypt was at the time, and Infant Mortality Rate in Palestine Is is very high. Of course, there are many still is, very poor; Egypt did not like the More than 20% reasons for this. For example, poor idea of accepting the Gaza population. hygiene, malnutrition, ill-equipped hos- It treated the area as a military man- You may hear about Palestine quite pitals and a rather wide range of other agement district. often, but you may not be aware of its reasons exist, but I would say that it is While reading books and so on, present situation. I have therefore pre- a combination of these factors that which were written about this period, I pared some basic data. In my opinion, causes the high mortality rate. came across this sentence: "Jordan has the best measure of the level of civiliza- One more thing that the numbers in a lot of nerve. Jordan annexed the area tion in any country is its infant mortali- these two infant mortality rates demon- that it won by force. On the contrary, ty rate. A French physicist predicted strate is that the number in the West Egypt dealt with the issue by applying the collapse of the Soviet Union, and at Bank is lower than in the Gaza Strip. well-thought-out humanitarian that time, what was used was, in fact, There is a sad history behind this. In approaches, looking steadily to the the infant mortality rate. You can see from Table 1 that the ratio per 1,000 live births is 20.16 infant deaths, West Bank Gaza Strip Israel Japan including childbirth, in the West Bank, Infant Mortality 20.16/1000 23.54/1000 1.29/1000 3.28/1000 and 23.54 in the Gaza Strip. When we GDP $1.7 billion $768 million $120.6 billion $3.567 trillion compare this with Japan, the mortality GDP per person $800 $600 $19,700 $28,000 rate in Japan is 3.28 infants, so you can Source: CIA, Others see that the mortality rate in Palestine 8 Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 Lecture tion in Table 2, please pay particular attention to the rate of population 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 increase. This was obtained from the West Bank 1,787,562 1,857,872 1,932,637 2,011,930 2,102,360 2,207,582 2,313,609 2,421,491 Palestinian Authority's own statistics. Increasing Rate(%) 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.5 5.0 4.8 4.7 According to the CIA information on all Gaza Strip 995,522 1,039,580 1,087,067 1,138,126 1,196,591 1,264,539 1,334,266 1,406,423 countries, the number is lower than Increasing Rate(%) 4.4 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.7 5.5 5.4 this, but I am not sure which informa- Palestinian Total 2,783,084 2,897,452 3,019,704 3,150,056 3,298,951 3,472,121 3,647,875 3,827,914 tion is correct. At any rate, the popula- Data of Palestinian Interim Self-Government Authority tion growth rate in Gaza is 5.4%. In Japan, it is predicted that the popula- future of the Palestinian nation." What than the West Bank. You will see, tion will begin to decline, and if this happened in reality was that people in later, from the population figures, that occurs, we will be in big trouble. the West Bank could go anywhere, GDP per capita is also higher in the However, if you were a statesman in a using a Jordanian passport, but a situ- West Bank. Israel's GDP is $120 bil- country with population growth over ation arose in which people in the Gaza lion, and you can see there is a huge 5%, such as Gaza, you may end up Strip were stateless. Therefore, for economic gap. For reference, Japan's wishing to commit suicide. In other example, when the oil crisis occurred in GDP is $3.567 trillion, though admit- words, there is nothing you can do. 1973, a substantial amount of money tedly it is somewhat meaningless to Needless to say, if a country is expe- was poured into Arab petroleum-pro- compare with Japan. GDP per capita riencing a 5%, 6% or even 10% econom- ducing countries and, as a matter of is $800 in the West Bank, $600 in the ic growth rate, like China, increased course, the number of migrant workers Gaza Strip and $19,700 in Israel. This population does not pose a problem. in the area increased. Pakistan, hav- fact is a very big problem. Neither the West Bank nor Gaza is in ing geographical proximity, was a main I think poverty is very much a rela- this fortunate situation, so you may say source of unskilled labor. One of the tive thing. If you live in municipally that they are in a state of collapse. If sources of relatively skilled migrant owned housing and buy an upright the population continues to grow at workers was Palestine. People in the piano for your daughter, you may con- this rate, it will become a very serious West Bank could become migrant sider yourself to be wealthy. However, problem. Population explosion is a workers, but people in Gaza could not, suppose you move to another area and problem not only for Palestine; it is a as they did not have passports. find out that all of your neighbors own problem for all of the Arab States. For Thanks to the migrant workers, the grand pianos, you may think of your- example, the population growth rate in West Bank prospered economically, self as rather poor. It is a fact that peo- Saudi Arabia is over 3%, so one could and it is fair to say that the result of ple in the Gaza Strip with $600 GDP say that the country is dealing with a this was manifested in its lower infant per capita live next to people whose time bomb. The one that has to deal mortality rate. GDP per capita is roughly $20,000. with it in the most extreme form can I have added Israeli data in Table 1 Another big problem is the television perhaps be said to be Palestine. because we cannot separate neighbor- program. You can watch Israeli TV High Unemployment Rate and Few ing Israel whenever Palestinian issues programs without any problems using Industries are being discussed. I was quite sur- a regular antenna in the Gaza Strip. prised to find that Israel's mortality You cannot help but see cars and hous- The unemployment rate in Palestine rate is half that of Japan. es in the neighboring country; there- is shown in Table 3. This also was cre- fore, you feel your state of poverty more ated using data from the Palestine GDP per Capita Is $600~$800 and than ever. If Gaza were adjacent to a Authority Statistics Department. The Population Growth of 5% poorer country, it would be a complete- unemployment rate may appear to be When we look at GDPs, the West ly different matter. But that is not the unexpectedly low, but I think these sta- Bank's is $1.7 billion and the Gaza case, in reality. tistics may be biased. In other words, Strip's is $768 million, so Gaza is lower Next, regarding Palestine's popula- the Statistics Department of the Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 9 Lecture with its $20,000 Does Suicide Terrorism Support the Employment Underemployment Unemployment GDP per capita, Sharon Administration? West Bank 66.3 10.1 23.6 where people are Male 63.0 11.7 25.3 starting to give up Since the mutual killing in the sec- Female 81.0 3.0 16.0 the kind of agricul- ond intifada from September 2000, one Gaza Strip 58.8 1.5 39.7 ture that requires of the methods the Israelis used to put Male 57.3 1.6 41.1 much labor and is distance between the Palestinians and Female 69.4 0.9 29.7 tiresome, such as themselves and stop associating them- Palestinian Total 64.0 7.4 28.6 growing vegeta- selves with the Palestinians as much Male 61.1 8.4 30.5 bles, fruits and fig as possible is the building of an 8- Female 78.4 2.5 19.1 trees. Instead, for meter-high barrier. Another method is Data of Palestinian Interim Self-Government Authority example, wheat, a "softer" approach. I'll give you an which has recently example. When tomatoes are brought Palestine Authority is presenting the seen increased production, and cotton from Gaza by truck, and you want to data in such a way as to say "Our situ- are grown. The merit of producing prevent the truck from entering Israel, ation is not that bad." As a matter of wheat and cotton is that it requires what would you do? The answer is to fact, there are few proper industries, less labor. If you have a big tractor or spend a long time for interrogation at whether in Gaza nor the West Bank. a combine, you can cultivate hectares the border. If you let the truck stay for For example, starting in 1987, there of land by yourself. Also there is a 8 to 10 hours under the hot sun, they was what is known as the first intifada global market for those, allowing you can no longer sell those tomatoes. This (the Palestinian uprising against to make a good profit. Therefore, you is a very tricky way. Israeli occupation, which occurred in make things that you are good at and The separation wall is another the West Bank and the Gaza Strip), in buy items that you are not good at pro- rather interesting issue. Words such which anti-Israel actions became worse ducing. as left wing and right wing lost their and a boycott of Israeli products took Before 1987, especially before the meanings since the collapse of the place. As a result, for one example, a year 2000, there was a balance Soviet Union. Even so, the case of Palestinian man opened a soap factory between supply and demand, just like Israel is very simple. Right wing peo- in Nablus and made a lot of money. those crops. For example, most of the ple want to keep occupied territory, and Those are the only kinds of industry. tomatoes eaten in Israel come from left wing people want to return it. As for agriculture, crops are mostly Gaza and the West Bank. Having Please think it this way. The right grown using natural water. People who lived in Israel for many years, I know wing is opposed to the separation wall. have been to places in the region such this to be a fact. A long time ago, as People on the left are for the separation as Israel, Syria, and so on, may know was the case in Japan also, human wall. For the right wing, the West that the climate is Mediterranean, and waste was used as fertilizer for crops in Bank and Gaza Strip belong to them, it never rains in the summer. It only Gaza, and cholera broke out there. therefore they would say something rains during the winter. It is a huge Cholera itself is not a particularly terri- like "Why do we have to build a wall? task to farm using only rainwater dur- ble disease, but even so, people were By building a wall, it becomes a fait ing the winter. Also, there is an enor- surprised to hear of it, and the supply accompli and may lead to the creation mous difference between a good har- of vegetables such as tomatoes from the of a Palestinian state." The left wing vest year and a poor year, and for West Bank and the Gaza Strip was was thinking about reconciliation, but about the past five years, there has stopped for a while. Looking at the the people were disappointed after been a drought throughout the area, so empty shelves at supermarkets in experiencing a severe blow from the under these conditions, crops cannot be Israel, it was clear how much Israel is second intifada since September 2000. grown. dependent on vegetables from the West A public opinion poll was held in The areas with $600 and $800 GDP Bank and Gaza. Israel before the Iraq War started. A per capita are situated next to Israel, question asked was: "Which are you 10 Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 Lecture afraid of, a Palestinian suicide terror- increase in 2001 and 2002. I concluded rorist act against an Israeli and ism or an Iraqi scud missile?" The that the Palestinians regarded the first released at the same time that Kozo result was "I am far more scared of a intifada as a racial war, and the second Okamoto, one of the Japanese Red Palestinian suicide terrorism." In my intifada as a professional war. They Army soldiers, was released. This opinion, this is the foundation for the seemed to keep some distance from the interpreter was over 40 years old and promotion of building the separation professional war. However, I found out had little money; he didn't have much wall used by the present Sharon from data from Palestine in Table 2 to offer even though he wanted to get administration. Faced with the with- that my conclusion was wrong. I can't married. Eventually, he got married to drawal from the Gaza Strip and the help but think that for all Palestinians, a woman who lived in Camp Dheisheh issue of the separation wall, the Sharon both the first and the second intifada very close to Bethelehem. He was administration, which is a minority were regarded as "wars." always praising her exuberantly. "My government, is still holding power in I think there must be differences in wife is so wonderful." Why did he have the national assembly with help from attitudes between Palestinians living to praise her that much? It took me a the Labor Party and the left wing. in East Jerusalem that is occupied by while to understand his reason. Israel and other Palestinians. The dif- Because he realized that she wasn't Differences in Palestinian Attitudes ference in the population growth rate is accepted in the society he belonged to, Depend on Where They Live one indicator. If you observe Palestine he had to exaggerate what a wonderful The second intifada since September from afar, such as Japan, Palestine and person she was in order to justify the 2000 is a serious matter. When you Arab states may appear monolithic, situation. look at the transition of the Palestinian but they are not so, as demonstrated by I wonder how many layers the population in Table 2, it grew more in the Palestinians living in Jerusalem. Palestinian society is made of. Of 2001 and 2002. The same phenome- course, the Palestinians will never Palestine Seems to Have Several non occurred in 1988 and 1989. 1988 admit these layers exist, and while I do Social Layers and 1989 were the years when the first not know how to prove my point con- intifada occurred. After talking to an I used to teach in Jerusalem, but a cretely, these layers definitely exist. expert on population issues, I learned lecturer's salary is not high, I could not This next example is connected to that population grows during a war. In make ends meet just through teaching. the previous topic of the separation other words, this does not happen by I was a part-time reporter for Jiji Press wall. The wall is being built around individual but mass selection, and this Co. and NHK for a while. When the Jerusalem. Outside the wall is also an kind of phenomenon of compensating Israeli-Palestinian conflict became area that was occupied and annexed by for decreasing population often occurs. fierce, I hired a Palestinian taxi driver Israel in 1967. People who live outside This may mean that the first intifada in East Jerusalem to go to Gaza in the wall thought that they would lose since 1987 and the second intifada order to collect news material, since my the privileges of Palestinians living from September 2000 were considered car naturally had an Israeli license inside Jerusalem, in the future, even as wars for the Palestinians. plate. While talking to the Palestinian though they still retain the privileges A very interesting thing happened to taxi driver, I learned that Palestinians for now. As a result, they started to me. While I was researching this prob- discriminate against Palestinian cross the border of the wall to live lem for another project, I only had pop- refugees. The driver was single and I inside. Soon the rent for houses went ulation data for Jerusalem until I was asked him, "If you fall in love with a up. able to acquire the population chart in Palestinian refugee girl and you want Palestinians in Jerusalem cannot Table 2. I was able to get various sta- to get married, what will happen?" He participate in the Israeli national elec- tistics prepared by Israelis on answered, "I will be disinherited." tion. However, they can participate in Palestinians living in Jerusalem. After I will tell you another interesting local elections and enjoy identical privi- examining the data, I noted that the example. There was a Palestinian leges like health insurance and old age Palestinian population increased in interpreter whom I always employed. pension. I think that the fear of losing 1988 and 1989, but did not show an He was arrested for an attempted ter- these privileges is related to the fact Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 11 Lecture there was no increase in population issue. But the among Palestinians in Jerusalem in one factor, the Lebanon (Mediterranean Sea) 2001 and 2002. Based on this and Cold War struc- other factors, I believe that we should ture collapsed. Syria treat Palestinians separately in this The truth is way. that it was in 1961, more Palestinian Situation Has Now Become Haifa than 40 years a Local Issue in the Middle East Palestine Irbid ago, when Pan- Jordan River There are many books written about Arabism was Netanya West Bank Tel Aviv-Yafo Zarqa Palestinian and Middle East issues. taken off politi- Palestine Holon One thing that will be mentioned in cal agendas. Ramla Amman Ashdod Jerusalem these books inevitably is this: "The Egypt and Middle East is a problem, especially Syria merged in Gaza when oil is involved. The core of the 1958. You do Gaza Strip conflict is the Palestinian issue, such not hear about Beersheba that the Middle East problem will these two coun- Jordan never be resolved without settling tries' merger, Israel Palestinian issue." When I was watch- but in any case, ing a TV program the other day, a com- together they Egypt mentator said that the high price of oil created the was a result of unresolved Palestinian United Arab issues. I was just appalled and won- Republic. They dered what he was thinking. planned origi- The Palestinian issue has already nally to include been localized and become minor. In Lebanon, the past it used to be the core Middle Jordan and other countries, extending Palestinian issue there. Why did it East issue, and the Middle East was eventually to the entire Arab region. happen there? These were people who described as an explosive warehouse That was their idea. But in real life, had never heard of Palestine or seen a for war that could lead to World War merging two countries never succeeds. single Palestinian. The truth is if you III. Then, the Palestinian issue was The United Arab Republic folded two hold a demonstration against the pres- regarded as one of the potential causes, and a half years later in 1961. There ent Saudi Arabian system in Saudi I think. was talk of a merger with Egypt when Arabia, you will be arrested right away. The reason behind it was this very Mr. Qaddafi carried out his revolution, The Palestinian issue is being used as a unique Cold War structure. Also, there but Egypt treated the proposal with safety valve to let off steam. Such is was the Arabs' sense of unity, so called contempt. The long and short of it is the nature of the Palestinian issue. "Pan-Arabism". This Pan-Arabism that Pan-Arabism as a political agenda They have to maintain Pan-Arabism in idea goes like this, "If we unite togeth- has not existed since 1961. order to position the Palestinian issue er, we can gain back our glory." At one It was very convenient for a states- as it was. That is why they have been time, the Arabs were the world's pre- man to position the Palestinian issue teaching Pan-Arabism to its people for eminent power, from the 6th to 17th as an advance guard for Pan-Arabism. several generations. centuries. The reason why Columbus For example, there was an amusing Syria and Egypt Became Multinational and Vasco da Gama sailed so hard was event a few years ago. There was a vil- Forces during the Gulf War to find a route to pioneer a market by lage in the middle of nowhere in the bypassing the Islamic areas. These northwest Saudi Arabian desert. They And the Gulf War broke out. During two factors became the base for the held a demonstration connected to the the Gulf War, multinational forces 12 Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 Lecture made of over 30 countries were formed. issue was no longer the center of Palestine wanted it to act. It was as if Many Arab States were among those Middle East issues was the Oslo Peace Syria was telling Palestine that multinational forces. The most impor- Accord. Thanks to the Accord, which Palestine should act for its own benefit tant thing was that Syria and Egypt was signed in September 1993, while Syria would do the same. were also among them. Since both Palestinian autonomy began. Mr. I have no explanation why anybody nations are great military powers, each Arafat came back to Gaza from Tunis should insist that Palestine is still "the of them sent a division. Egyptians and was elected as President. How core of Middle East issue." knew that their country sent a division, was the Oslo Peace Accord reached? What Is the ODA Support for but the Syrians did not. I went to Syria The U.S. won a sweeping victory in the Palestine? immediately after that time. When I Gulf War; and then it tried to use its was talking to a Syrian, I compliment- momentum to try to solve Middle East Since the second intifada from ed him, "Your army did a great job." issues. It invited Israel, Syria, September 2000, 3,000 Palestinians He replied, "You mean, our army went Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine to a and about 1,000 Israelis died. I think there?" However, I have a friend who meeting in Madrid in November 1993. this can be called a war. You often saw lives in Aleppo, which is situated in As they knew it would not be effective articles in the newspapers that predict- northern Syria, who knew about it. It to have a meeting as a whole, they ed that "this will eventually spread is close to the Turkish border, so you divided into small groups and proceed- through the entire Middle East," but it can watch Turkish TV using an anten- ed to hold working-level talks at the never did. In other words, the na. He told me, "I saw our army on Department of State in Washington, Palestinian issue has remained as an Turkish TV. They were firing artillery DC. issue on its own and will never spread guns." That was how he found out. Syria knew there was no other way to any other area. When the Gulf War broke out after to promote peace with Israel as long as It will become a serious matter if you the cold war ended in 1989, Syrian it recognized the American control in don't understand the above-mentioned statesmen did not have a choice to say the world, which was evident during premise. Mr. M. Komura, former to the U.S., which was and still is a the Gulf War in 1991. Egypt had Minister for Foreign Affairs, went to World super power: "No, we cannot already chosen that path in the 1970's. Palestine and announced that Japan cooperate with you." Syria had to send Even though Syria would eventually would offer one hundred million dollars a division. On the contrary, what the follow suit, it still wanted better condi- per year in ODA. Fortunately or unfor- government said to the people was, tions in terms of peace talks. tunately, depending on how you view "We will never fight with another Arab Negotiation as a whole usually gets it, Palestine was in a mess because of nation under Pan-Arabism." It didn't better results, just as is the case with the intifada and it could no longer carry sit well with the people. In my opinion, labor-management negotiations. If out ODA projects. Also, it does not perhaps it was thought to be less only some of the workers negotiate have the capacity to deal with support shocking politically for the people to with the management, they cannot get of one hundred million dollars per year. find out about the detachment from sol- the best deal. Syria thought all of the I don't know the rationale of the diers who came back, compared to countries involved were united, but in ethics for ODA support towards hearing an announcement of the dis- reality Palestine took the initiative Palestine. If it is humanitarian sup- patched detachment from the govern- with the Oslo Peace Accord. The port, there are countries that are in a ment. As it turned out, there was not Syrians were furious. worse state than Palestine. For exam- much political shock. But thanks to Since the Oslo Peace Accord, ple, has the Darfur problem in Sudan that detachment, the U.S. tacitly per- Syrian's involvement in the negotia- ever been discussed at the Diet? 1.5 mitted Syria to "add" Lebanon as "its tions with Israel had its periods of ups million people are facing a matter of life colony". Syrian government effort defi- and downs. It did not coincide with the and death. It was the same thing with nitely paid off. Incidentally, no Syrian negotiations between Palestine and Rwanda ten years ago. These coun- soldier died in the war. Israel, which also had their ups and tries did not have a share of Japan's The other reason that the Palestinian downs. Syria would not act how ODA support of one hundred million Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 13 Lecture dollars. If Japan were to support probably the lack of social justice. If He Can't Make Undesirable Darfur, it would not have any impact Corruption is clear evidence of this. Decisions, He Is Not a Politician on Japanese interests. Japanese sup- Gaza was really poor in the past. It port towards the Palestinian issue was before 1994 once when I went to I will move on to the Arafat issue. would have no effect on Japanese inter- collect news materials; I got hungry He definitely rendered distinguished ests either. Therefore, I don't think we and tried to get something to eat. I had service. Without Arafat, the can use the logic that Japan uses ODA only one dish to eat there. The people Palestinian issue could have been even to benefit Japan. fried grounded chickpeas, which tasted a smaller problem or nonexistent. I had a chance to talk to directors or like meatballs even though they were Palestine might have been merged councilors of each ministry at the vegetables. Some people sometimes with Israel, Jordan and Egypt. The Prime Minister's official residence. I got stomach trouble because of the poor problem was that Arafat was not a was astonished to hear one of them quality cooking oil that was used, but politician. In short, he could not make telling me about the reason for support- you had no other dishes to choose from. undesirable decisions. He used his ing Palestine. "When the oil price gets Palestine started to receive assis- past success as his backbone and he high, or if we run out of oil as in the oil tance from Japan and other countries could not deviate from that. crisis of 1973, Saudi Arabia will take after Arafat's return in 1994. Then Whenever I think of the Palestinian into account Japan's support for monies from under the carpet resur- issue, I remember the Meiji Palestine. The Arabs would say, 'We faced and about one billion dollars were Restoration in Japan. Those who were are thankful to Japan for helping our poured out in one to two years. There involved lied, using the phrase, "Revere poor cousin, Palestine. We will give were people who used the money to the Emperor and expel the enemies." priority to Japan by sending oil to build apartment buildings since they They energized people, but when they them.' We are prepared for that sce- predicted that there would be peace. If came into power they forgot the prom- nario." As I mentioned before, this you go to Gaza, you will find luxurious ise of their slogan and decided to build kind of logic will not work. I am not apartment buildings. The beach in Rokumeikan. They did have their advocating that we do not help that area is a nice place. Nice sands. roadmap where they wanted to lead Palestine, we have to help that country Hotels were built. Restaurants were Japan, and they never deviated from it. but how do you justify one hundred added in these hotels. You can eat It is a different matter whether their million dollars of support? decent meals at those restaurants. policy worked or not. When the oppos- After Arafat became ill, I found By my budget, I don't think the ing forces such as the Saga Uprising newspaper articles regarding his per- prices for meals at the hotels are sur- (February 1874) and the Shinpuren sonal assets. One IMF official told me prisingly expensive, but people with Uprising (October 1876) occurred, they that it amounted to either one billion or $600 GDP per capita will find a $20 knocked them down by force. Without four billion dollars. He did not know meal too expensive. However, locals do that action, I think our society would the actual amount. But it is a huge eat there too. It is legitimate that there have become a totally different one. amount. When I was a journalist, I are rich people in Gaza. But there is Arafat did not do that. Arafat pur- heard his assets were said to be an exception: I saw Palestinian police sued modernism and was not a man of between one to one-and-a-half billion officers eating there even though their religion. He had no choice but to make dollars. I was very angry with journal- salaries are so low. As you might peace with Israel, but he didn't do it. ists who wrote such articles, when expect, nobody brought a bill and they He built an alliance with Hamas that is Arafat died, because of their unprinci- did not pay for their meals. In short, against peace and supported ideas in pled behaviors. Where did Arafat get this is a "consultation fee" of an organ- the vein of "Allah will never allow the money? Where did capital funds ized group of gangsters. If the top eche- Israel to exist." Combined with the come from? They came from our taxes. lon rots, it follows that everyone else previously mentioned corruption, this below rots. In my opinion, this is the was his weakness. If the Top Echelon Rots ... biggest problem in Palestine. I have said quite cruel things about The biggest Palestinian problem is corruption. But I might have been 14 Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 Lecture unfair in expressing it that way. answers from Israelis and Palestinians research? It does not cost much money Palestine was everything to Arafat. He to the same question. since they do not have to produce prod- must have thought like this: "I am the Why doesn't Japan fund this kind of ucts. PSR can only do two public polls only one who has dedicated himself completely to his country and who can solve its issues." He had thought it was more productive to hold the funds and Total West Bank Gaza Strip Total West Bank Gaza Strip distribute them in his way instead of Unification of the Palestinian security services under Concerning armed attacks against Israeli civilians doing a foolish thing such as making a the control of the cabinet inside Israel, I proper budget at a national assembly Strongly support 17.6 19.2 14.9 Strongly support 27.4 18.7 41.8 and allowing it to be executed as legis- Support 61.2 59.2 64.6 Support 26.4 26.5 26.4 lated. Oppose 14.8 14.8 14.7 Oppose 40.7 48.5 27.6 I think the article claiming that the Strongly oppose 2.7 2.7 2.8 Strongly oppose 3.6 3.9 3.2 DK/NA 3.6 4.1 2.8 No opinion / Don't know 1.9 2.4 1.0 one or four billion dollars were his pri- The appointment of an effective interior minister With regard to call for a cessation of violence by both vate assets is wrong. I don't think sides, I Strongly support 19.9 21.4 17.4 Arafat thought that way either. It Support 65.3 62.1 70.5 Support it 82.5 83.2 81.3 seemed that he had left no will. He was Oppose 9.6 11.2 7.1 Oppose it 15.7 14.3 18.1 not the kind of person who would write, Strongly oppose 1.7 2.3 0.8 No opinion / Don't know 1.7 2.4 0.6 "I will give all of the money from my DK/NA 3.5 3.0 4.2 If an agreement is reached to cease violence by both account to my wife and daughter." And When Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip, are you sides, but armed attacks against Israelis continued, worried about internal Palestinian infighting in the Strip? do you approve or oppose, in this case, the Palestinian I don't think there will be another per- Very worried 20.5 16.7 26.9 Authority taking measures to prevent them? son who can manage the area for many Worried 43.3 48.2 35.6 Approve 59.3 58.9 60.0 years to come as he did. Not worried 29.2 29.1 29.3 Oppose 36.7 35.9 37.9 Interestingly, there are bureaucrats Not worried at all 4.7 4.2 5.5 Don't know / No answer 4.0 5.2 2.0 who enjoy extravagant lifestyles and DK/NA 2.1 1.7 2.8 If separate elections for the president of the Palestinian who have built unbelievable houses, Do you see Sharon's plan to evacuate the Israeli settle- Authority were held today, whom would you choose? but Arafat was an exception. There ments from Gaza as a victory for the Palestinian armed Mahmud Zahhar 15.1 13.9 17.1 resistance against Israel or don't you see it as a victory? Yasser Arafat 34.9 34.8 35.2 was talk of him sending five million Definitely this is a victory 45.3 40.8 52.9 Marwan Barghouti 12.9 12.4 13.8 dollars every month to his wife. But I think that this is a victory 28.7 30.3 25.9 Others (specify --- ) 0.8 0.9 0.6 his wife came from a very wealthy I think this is not a victory 18.8 21.2 14.7 None of the above, Christian family called Tawil from Definitely this is will decide later 24.6 25.3 23.6 Ramallah. Without Arafat sending her not a victory 5.0 5.0 5.1 I will not participate 10.1 10.9 8.7 any money, she would have gotten five DN/NA 2.2 2.7 1.4 No opinion / Don't know 1.6 1.9 1.0 millions dollars from her family. If you want to evaluate the status of democracy and human If separate elections for a Vice President of the Palestinian rights in the Palestinian Authority, you would say it is: Authority were held today, whom would you choose? People Recognize the Corruption of Very good 4.1 4.0 4.3 Saeb Erikat 5.7 5.3 6.3 Their Autonomous Government Good 24.8 24.2 25.9 Haidar Abdul Shafi 12.2 11.1 14.0 Not good and not bad 24.5 24.9 23.9 Marwan Bargouthi 22.2 24.2 18.9 Please take a look at Table 4. This is Bad 24.4 24.7 23.9 Ahmad Quarai' 2.7 2.8 2.6 a public poll done by the Palestinian Very bad 19.9 19.7 20.2 Mahmud Abbas 2.0 1.9 2.0 Center for Policy and Survey Research DK/NA 2.2 2.4 1.8 Mohammad Dahlan 3.6 1.2 7.5 Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions? Mahmud Zahhar 11.5 10.8 12.6 (PSR) in Ramallah. This is the only Yes 87.9 86.8 89.9 No one, will decide later 27.4 27.9 26.4 information regarding the Palestinian No 6.1 6.6 5.3 I will not participate 10.0 11.2 7.9 issue you can trust to a certain extent. Don't know / No answer 6.0 6.7 4.9 Others (----) 1.0 1.2 0.6 They have done over ten public polls, No opinion / Don't know 1.9 2.3 1.2 some of them jointly with Israel. You Source: http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2004/p13a.html may find it interesting to find different PSR: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 15 Lecture per year due to the lack of funds. It tion is held now. Mahmoud al-Zahar is to hold it. Even if it is possible, nobody should not cost more than several tens a fundamentalist Islamist. While there knows if Hamas will join the election. of thousand dollars if you conduct it is only 34.9% support for Arafat, no In the present situation, it can gain once in two months. I believe ODA Palestinian believes that Arafat would 30% of the votes but it can't get over funds should be spent for this kind of be defeated if an election were held 50%. Suppose Hamas becomes an activity. while he was alive. Arafat's existence opposition party, will it be contented to I think they have done really good and what he did are two different remain as one? This party is hiding research. For example, there is this things. He has become a symbol: "I am guns, so we are not sure how they will question in Table 4: "Do you think that against what he does. But there is act. there is corruption in PA (Palestinian nobody else but him." There are some Another problem is how the present Authority) institutions?" The answers Japanese who think that way too. Arafat generation will behave. The are 87.9% "Yes", 6.1% "No", and 6.0% Arafat had distorted Palestinian issue past and present prime ministers "Don't know/No answer." I find PSR and the people have no idea how to fix belong to Arafat's generation. They amazing for their ability to get 87.9% it. enjoy good lives by their successes. I "Yes" from people who are living under Former U.S. President Clinton came am not sure if they are willing to give a dictatorship. late for the Okinawa Summit and up their power and hand them to the There is a question about "Unification Madeleine Albright didn't even show next generation. If they stay on, things of security forces by the government." up, because they were involved in the will not necessarily improve. I cannot There are about 12 forces in Palestine - peace negotiations at Camp David. It predict the future since Post-Arafat presently. Some kinds of information was a perfect opportunity but they policies are not clearly shown. If their units and others were connected to missed it. Clinton wrote about this in policy is more peaceful and unyielding Arafat both with respect to money and his recently published book called My compared to Arafat, they may be under command issues. In Japan there are Life. He approached Arafat at a meet- heavy pressure from the bottom. Being only two forces, which are the police ing on December 23, 2000, two weeks under pressure in the area means fir- and the Self Defense Forces. We may before his term ended, and told him, ing bullets. I am not sure whether the ask why Arafat needed so many forces. "Accept this plan." Arafat refused; after Arafat generation is brave enough to He pulled the strings behind the scenes all, he couldn't make the final decision. risk themselves that far. and kept his power by making the I think this is the reason why he had When you compare Arafat to an forces compete against each other. put Palestine in chaos. I think that elder statesman who had rendered a More than 80% of the people support Arafat was regarded as a cancer for great service in Japan during the Meiji unification of these forces. Palestinians during the last several era, I think he was very brave. There "The appointment of an effective years. are statesmen of Arafat's generation interior minister" points to someone who have possessions and money. Will Hopes for People Who Are in Their who has total control over the one of them say, "I will die for peace"? Late 30's and 40's for the Post-Arafat Palestinian police. The prime minister But there are people who are willing to Period supervises him and the president die for their country. They are in their watches over matters relating to its What will happen in the future? late 30's and 40's and who had gone operations. More than 80% of people Will Post-Arafat Palestine move through hard times during the anti- support this kind of structure as well. toward peace? Or will it become a huge Israel movement in 1987. Arafat had prevented these two possi- chaos? I am not certain as of now If they want an economically stable bilities from occurring. because there are so many indefinite Palestine in the future, they have to issues left, such as Hamas and Jihad. pursue connections with Israel. Arafat's Indecisiveness at a Crucial What will be their influences on the Neighboring Palestine in that region is Time Caused Chaos Post-Arafat era? They reported plans Jordan. Japanese ODA was equal to Nevertheless, 34.9% of people will to hold a national election in January 2% of Jordan's GDP in the past. And choose Arafat as President if an elec- in Palestine, but they may not be able there is Egypt on the opposite side. 16 Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 Lecture Egypt has not achieved economic pros- attacks. went down under $50 and nobody was perity either. Therefore, if Palestine But there are two interesting writing about oil. I think the present wants to achieve economic growth, its episodes that I'd like to tell you here. oil situation speaks for itself, and I will only option is with Israel. So a states- The first is that Palestinians opened a discuss this matter using past data. man needs to know Israel's good points. few universities in Gaza with an IT The oil shock occurred in 1973. One But Palestinians in their 20's don't department. Graduates of that depart- of the industries that were created know them. For many of them, Israel ment created venture businesses. after the oil shock was the oil price fore- is their enemy that they have to kill. I They sent e-mails to all IT companies casting industry. Please take a look at do, however, have high hopes for in Israel to obtain subcontract work. Figure 1. The Department of Energy Palestinians who are in their late 30's They realized that they were lacking in (DOE) of the U.S. did this forecast. and 40's. skills and recognition. Also they knew They made a graph of changes in fore- One of the representatives of that that they couldn't gain a foothold in the casted values from 1978 to 1984. The generation is Mr. Marwan Bargouthi. global market. They used Israel, which solid line at the bottom that moves up You might have read about him. He had established an excellent IT indus- and down indicates changes in actual was ranked third by Palestinians when try, by doing subcontract work to hone prices. The line with triangle dots indi- asked, "If elections for the president their skills. They believed they could cates projected prices as of 1978. A were held today, whom would you make their own way once they became graph of projected prices was made choose?" He worked under Arafat and marketable. each year up to 1978. If you look at dif- was responsible for organizing the mili- The other episode concerns Mr. ferences between forecasted and actual tary force. He was sentenced to life in Khalil Shikaki, who is a political schol- prices, you would come to the conclu- prison for his involvement in terrorism ar and a central figure of the group sion that buying a lottery ticket would against Israel, having been in jail a few called the Palestinian Center for Policy stand a better chance of winning than times before. The next leader doesn't and Survey Research (PSR) that con- believing these projections. have to be Bargouthi himself, but if his ducts these surveys. He is also a pro- How do they derive these projec- generation takes the center stage of fessor at Birzeit University. He is tions? I suppose a mathematician politics, I think people will pay more about 45 years old. He has been an comes up with a numerical formula. (It attention to Palestinian issues. invited guest of the Japanese Ministry is impossible for me to form any esti- of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) to deliver mate of the formula.) He applies vari- To Make Good Use of Good Things lectures on a few occasions. I think it ables and puts them through his com- Regarding Israel for Palestinian was a good arrangement by MOFA. I puter. And you get projected prices. Regeneration went to one of his lectures at the But none of them came even close to Since Arafat is dead, it's easy to University of Tokyo; as there weren't the actual prices. In short, our brains speak ill of him. It is good that he can't many people in the audience, we had a are not made to forecast oil prices. In complain. One of his problems was very interesting discussion. He stated the future, I suppose they will make a that he took the wrong path when he positively, "Our generation realizes the model to analyze this kind of informa- started building his country. He put good points of Israel. Without this tion. For now, as we are not capable of too much emphasis on nationalism. knowledge, Palestine cannot regener- doing it, I think it is better we stop fore- Since there was no good news for the ate." I do have a high hope for his gen- casting. If the oil price goes up, you pay state of his country, he encouraged his eration. more and drive less. people to confront Israel. Please take a Please take a look at Figure 2. This Never Count on the Forecasts of Oil look at the questionnaire in Table 4: is a perspective that the World Bank Prices "What do you think about armed did in 1995. By 1995, we had become a attacks against Israel?" The answers Let's now talk about oil. Recently I little wiser and thought they should not were 27% "Strongly support" and 26% said, "We will run out of oil. The price forecast such high prices as they did "Support," so we can see that more of oil will go up endlessly. It hits $60. before. They only made forecasts up to than 50% people are in favor of the This is the end of the world." Then it 2010. The thick black line indicates Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 17 Lecture US dollars per barrel 225 60 actual 200 Iran-Iraq War Current 78 79 50 1990$ 175 80 150 81 40 82 125 Iran Revolution 83 30 100 84 Gulf War 75 20 OAPEC 50 Oil Embargo 10 25 0 0 73 80 85 90 95 00 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 20 05 10 Source : US DOE, Annual Energy Outlook, various issues. Source : World Bank actual prices. The thin line that goes tury. I always wonder how students when there was no more oil found in below the thick line since 1990 indi- continued to read in a building with the next year. It's not true that the cates the oil price converted into 1990 small windows. The Harvard Library price today will not fluctuate as wildly. dollar values. According to this fore- finally turned on the light after the The same thing can happen. If they cast, we are supposed to be paying $20 incandescent lamp was invented. find a new oil field, the price will drop. in actual values, which amounts to About that time the car was also The reverse also applies. approximately $17-18 in 1990 dollar invented. The oil industry would not The oil industry is not responsible for values. We should not pay more than have survived if automobiles had not its claims, and they lie. You come $40. In short, their forecast was too been invented, because this market across expressions like "estimated high in figure 1 and they lowered it in requires a lot of money to change reserve" and "reserve-production ratio" Figure 2. I am sure there are a lot of hands as well as considerable outlays in books about energy and oil. When I smart people in the World Bank, yet for capital investment such as building was a child, I read something like nobody was able to forecast the present pipe lines. When I imagine a situation "there will be no more oil in 30 years" $40 or $45 oil price. without the invention of the car that in a comic magazine called "Shonen uses oil for fuel, I can't help but think (boy's) Club." We are supposed to have Do Confirmed and Estimated Amounts that oil is a very fortunate product for oil for the next 40 years or so now. of Oil Deposits Mean Anything? us. There are confirmed reserve of a little I have to explain some points regard- Another specific is changing prices. over one trillion barrels. But please ing oil. The first is that oil is a very for- We didn't see the same price move- think about this. If you are told, "we tunate product. The oil industry began ments in the early period as today. have a lot of oil", the market psychology in the middle of the 19th century, trig- There were times it went down to one will drag the price down. So oil compa- gered by the use of the lamp. Edison tenth or one twentieth, or when it nies lie. They collate information with invented an incandescent lamp in the jumped up 10 and 20 times within a fake numbers of oil deposits, and divide late 19th century. If you compare the year. In the mid-19th century, there these numbers by the current number incandescent lamp and the oil lamp, was a big oil find in Spindle Head. It of extractions, and then tell you, "We the former is a far better lamp without wasn't that much by present stan- have oil for the next 40 years." What is question. For example, the library of dards, but it was a big one for that peri- the meaning of numbers anyway? Harvard University suffered two fires. od. Due to that find, land price We Can Buy Oil if We Have Money As a consequence, nobody was allowed increased to two million dollars per to use oil lamps there in the 19th cen- acre but dropped to $3 to $4 per acre In short, oil is an ordinary product. 18 Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 Lecture This was even true during the oil Iran, it would have been far less expen- interests? The Saudis took them over crises. It is determined by supply and sive. It means that oil can be brought completely. When a nation is permit- demand, and we will never run out of to the market. The Ceyhan route is ted to do such a thing, the same thing oil. There is one thing that we didn't America's pride. There was another will happen again. Japan's Arabia Oil know and should have noticed in 1973. story behind this route. America sup- had to withdraw regarding its Saudi oil When OPEC announced it would cut ported Turkey when the latter had interests, but the take-over was done oil production by 5% every month, we trouble joining the EU. Former relatively amicably. But if you are told should have noticed that OPEC could President Clinton personally handled to withdraw due to changes in the law, not export oil in several years, based this project. you can't complain. I don't understand upon that logic. Without oil exports, I think we are not spending our the significance of Japanese dependen- what would people in Saudi Arabia money right regarding oil. We should cy on this kind of situation. eat? In brief, it was a lie. Later on, for- stop thinking of oil for the rising-sun We may have to change our ideas of mer Saudi Oil Minister Sheik Yamani flag. Indeed, they did have Union Jack oil completely. I hope bureaucrats and admitted that it was a lie. We were oil and the Stars and Stripes oil. But members of the Diet don't have the taken in. The price did go up then, but guess what happened to them after idea that "we can secure our future even so we didn't have trouble getting 1973? They were taken over, with only share of oil by sending ODA to oil in Japan. Aramco remaining. Do you think Palestine." If they still do, I think it How will the present high price of oil America still owns any rights and will be a big problem for our future. shift? If it goes up, I think it will be a huge blow to countries like China. As for Japan, it will not suffer much dam- age. I predict the impact will be minor Exchange of Opinions and any damage to be limited, with the GDP going up or down by 0.5%. I will be quite frank and extreme in 1% of People Insist on Going Back to are there. my views. I think there is no need to go Israel Oikawa: Yes, indeed. One unique prob- after Kashagan in Iran. I will go as far lem between Israel and Palestine is the as to say that it was meaningless for Member: The Palestinian population is refugees' right to return to their homes. Japan to pay a lot of money when there 3.8 million now; how many people were It means their right to make claims was a stir regarding Russian oil. One evicted during the founding of Israel? such as "My house was there but I was party would insist that it should be Oikawa: They were not among the 3.8 evicted by Israel. Now it is Israel but I brought to Daquing, and another million people. In short, this number need you to take me back there." This would insist that it should be brought represents people who live in the West right is included in a resolution that to the Pacific Ocean. As far as I'm con- Bank and Gaza. They also live in was carried out in the U.N. General cerned, we will be all right as long as Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt. Assembly during the Middle East War. we have oil somewhere. There are different numbers quoted, Not that many people were evicted, but Nevertheless, we do have a problem depending on whom you ask. For they started families with children and here. When we discovered oil in example, the differences in figures are grandchildren. The total number Central Asia, we had to find a way to more than double quoted by either became four to six million people. If all bring oil to the market to make money. Israel or Palestine. There are a num- of them come back to Israel, Israel will It was very hard to get it to the market. ber of people who move between the not survive. They are discussing how to The U.S. has built pipelines in Ceyhan countries, but I am not sure how accu- resolve this matter. Israel is proposing in the Turkish Mediterranean region, rate the Runruwa number on this is. to offer a lot of money as compensation so they will start their operation soon. In my opinion, the eviction is between 4 instead of taking them back. Palestine How much money did they spend? If and 6 million people. is insisting on its claims to get back they chose to build pipelines across Member: Quite a fair number of people that land. Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 19 Lecture I told you about Mr. Shikaki of PSR a Oikawa: It is close to 500,000 people. republicanism, and while it may look while ago. He told us this interesting There are a lot of them in Lebanon. It's good from outside, it is dictatorship in story in his lecture. He collected funds kind of strange that Saddam Hussein reality. In Syria's constitution, define from everywhere and conducted an atti- believed in Pan-Arabism. He support- the age eligible to be president is tudinal survey for refugees living in ed the unification of Arabs. He insisted defined. But in actual fact, when the Lebanon and Jordan. Even though the to be its head. That's why Iraq gave older brother who was the president results have not been released, he gave favorable treatment to Palestinians. passed away, they changed the consti- us an example. One of the questions Palestinians paid much lower rent tution so that his younger brother, who asked was, "Do you want to go back to than the market price. And wasn't old enough, could become presi- your place, even though it has become Palestinians were evicted after dent. I don't remember exactly how old Israeli?" 10% of respondents expressed Hussein was gone. Landlords told he was at that time. Still he did their desire to go back even though they them, "Don't fool with me. Get out. I become president. Can we still call this would become Israelis. Of these 10%, in can get ten times the rent you were a nation? reality, only 1% of the people really want paying. Why should I let you stay?" I talked about Arafat's private assets to go back. That amounts to 40,000 to Palestinians enjoyed a good life during amounting to 1 to 4 billion dollars. But 60,000 people, compared to 4 to 6 million Saddam Hussein's regime but their it was only possible since Palestine people. There should be a solution to present situation has worsened. There wasn't a nation. If an owner of a small deal with this number of people. are many different cases, so I can't shop makes a lot of money, he doesn't make that kind of sweeping generaliza- own all of the money. Various Living Standards tion regarding Palestinian living stan- Member: To simplify the matter, we Member: You have lived there. Do you dards in each country. can forget about the Camp David talks think those four million people are liv- and the Oslo Peace Accord when we It Is Futile in Many Ways Now, ing a better life compared to the time think of future Palestine. If we leave but They Will Move toward the Oslo when they were evicted? them alone, it will settle like what this Peace Accord Oikawa: It depends on the people and proverb says, "Everything comes to where they live. Some lucky people Member: The relationship between him that waits." Is this your opinion? who fled to Jordan are enjoying a high- Israel and Palestine was not this seri- Oikawa: It's easy to destroy something, er standard of living compared to life in ous before, I think. What caused it to but it's hard to build it. I think they did the village in 1948. But there is a big put it out of synch? need the Oslo Peace Accord and the problem in Lebanon. Lebanon is a Oikawa: The biggest problem is that Camp David talks. I didn't mention unique country that maintains a good Arab nations were inexperienced. The this before, but politicians (unfortu- balance of various ethnic groups. concept of nationhood was imported nately they are not the mainstream) Therefore they have not conducted an from Europe. Take a look at the Saudi from Israel and Palestine got together attitudinal survey since the 1930s. If a Arabian case. It's better suited to call it to discuss and presented a 'Geneva ratio of each ethnic group is released, it a private enterprise of the Saudi Royal Agreement' to show how they could may destroy its delicate balance and Family, rather than a nation. Some approach the problem. I think it is in eventually lead to its destruction. So it people say it will ruin countries in line with the Oslo Peace Accord and is didn't welcome Palestinians that main- Middle East if democracy is introduced. a well-thought-out plan. ly consisted of Sunni Muslims. It tried Saudi Arabia will be ruined if people I think a lot of people from the two to stop them from becoming a part of start to think, "I am a Saudi." This countries will continue to die. But I Lebanon. Palestinians have been applies to the entire Arab States think their approach will be similar to severely persecuted. They cannot get a including Palestine. the present Oslo Peace Accord and the decent job. I think they are poorer than There were two approaches taken to Camp David talks in their efforts to before. establish a nation in that area. One is reach an agreement. The question is Member: Do you think one million peo- a traditional monarchy like Kuwait "when." Both countries are just wast- ple are in that situation? and Saudi Arabia. The other is called ing time now. I don't think they will 20 Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 Lecture resolve their issues without making to facts. They kill each other in that lic polls. And they should let many peo- use of things from the past. area. Even though four thousand peo- ple know and realize the present state. ple were killed, it was limited only to I think this is the starting point. Make Them Understand They Are Not that area. We should let them realize 'the Core of the Middle East' this, "You are not the core of the Middle Member: What do you think about East. Useless people are killing each On January 9, Mr. Mahmud Abbas, Chairman of Palestine Liberation their future approach? other. That's all." Organization (PLO), won the presidential Oikawa: They have to cool down first. The next step is to use your brain elections of the Palestine National After they calm down, they should and money. For example, invest Authority (PNA). Mr. Marwan Bargouthi examine Palestinian issues according money in PSR to do more detailed pub- in prison did not run for the elections. Major Step toward Commercial Operation -Uranium Testing Conducted at Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant- Uranium testing was begun at Japan Uranium tests will be conducted using operation in 1997, but there was a big Nuclear Fuel Ltd. (JNFL)'s reprocessing uranium in order to make it as close to delay due to adjustments to original design plant in Rokkasho-mura, Aomori real operations as possible and confirm and increased strength of machines. With Prefecture on December 21, 2004. the performance of the safety functions regard to the use of plutonium, problems Preparatory tests are being conducted and the performance of the reprocessing such as the suspension of Monju operation toward the start of commercial operation equipment itself. This will find flaws in and delay of plans for plutonium use in in July 2006. Already flow and chemical the machinery and renovations as well as light water reactors delayed plans as a tests have been completed, and now sub- other measures taken before actual opera- whole. However, the use of plutonium is stantial tests have begun toward full-scale tion. important for the efficient use of uranium operation. Following approximately a It has been 20 years since the resources and conservation of our fossil year of uranium testing, active tests will Federation of Electric Power Companies fuels, and in order to establish the nuclear be conducted to test the operation of facili- submitted a siting request for the repro- fuel cycle in Japan, the reprocessing plant ties and machinery using spent fuel, and cessing plant in Rokkasho-mura, Aomori is necessary. We look forward to the sure after safety has been confirmed, full-scale Prefecture. This reprocessing plant, progress toward operation of the Rokkasho operation will begin. according to original plan, was to start reprocessing plant. Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 21 $6 (Pluto) Smell of Old Books Shigeru Goto They say that the government sound exaggerated, but I feel joy in years before this was a two story offices of our country are snobbish, being alive. This is because I feel that house: a small wooden construction but they still sometimes do things each worn book is loaded with the but convenient for stocking books. that are tasteful. What I am thinking history and culture of the human These were randomly stacked from of is the "The Selection of One race. the entrance to both sides of the stairs Hundred Scent Landscapes" which Such an "emotional" Japanese char- and even into the alcove. However, the Ministry of Environment select- acter as " (nioi)" cannot complete- we now live in a small condominium ed around two years ago. Those ly apply to the smell of old books, and there is no space in which to chosen included "The Sweet Street of which has gradually matured over stack books. Kawagoe," "Rice Terraces of time. The Ministry of Environment I sat down and began to organize Tanegura after the Rain," "The Scent notes that it classified "locations with the many books. Each book would of Earth and Fire in Imari Ware" and top caliber scent stemming from look into my face ruefully as if to say, "The Scent of the Tide at nature, everyday life and culture" as "Are you going to sell me, when you Itsukushima Shrine" and is quite "scent landscapes" but I think the haven't even read me?" I became dis- stylish. The land where I visited ear- "smell" of old books is not a " ." gusted with myself for the many lier, Shimanto River, was also However, to classify it as " books that I bought in duplicate. I included. As I imagined the land- "(nioi), or a bad smell, would be took one out of its box and turn the scape of the "wind passing the cruel. I wonder if this is why they pages. As I browse through, I have Chinka Bridge of Shimanto River," called this (kaori), or scent, and new discoveries, and forgot the time. this poem came to mind: wrote it in hiragana. It is an expres- However, the mountain of books did "Shading his head with his palm sion that is quite exquisite. not lessen. How many times did I against the strong dry wind, a My study smells vaguely of a sec- put a book back on the shelf, and river imp" ondhand bookstore. My old wife take one out again. Saying farewell Katsue Kitazono complains every time she enters, but to books was painful. In this selection of one hundred, I when I smell this rather bad smell, I Selling my books, space appears found the "Kanda Secondhand Books feel calm. Four years ago, we left the on the shelf, how dispiriting Street" and admired. I love to search country and moved our final home Rohan Koda among old books and when I go into to Kaga close to the former The other day, I had dinner at a a secondhand bookstore and smell Nakasendo Itabashi lodging. The restaurant on the 19th floor of the that characteristic smell: it may house that we lived in for many Tokyo Bankers Association building 22 Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 called Club Kanto. The green roof of "Although it happens every year, I It is known as a book leaving its the imperial residence seen from the must say that books do not sell in mark in British literary history as a large windows was beautiful. The autumn." "small masterpiece" of an invaluable green of the pines looked sharp in As I was reading Mr. Matsumura's autobiography, and it has continued the autumn sun. After enjoying the collected essays: "Closing at Six to be printed, next by Shincho dinner, I walked around the room O'clock," I got a catch in my throat Bunko, then by Iwanami Bunko and enjoying the art works on the walls. when I got to the place where he others. I had not known a thing There were paintings by Tsuguji writes, "Even in the country second- about this book. What I found was Fujita, Sanzo Wada and others, icons hand bookstore, the seasonal change the 1961 version by Iwanami Bunko from Russia, and etchings by leaves its shadow." According to Mr. (Translation by Masao Hirai). This I Rembrandt. Even a pot by Imaemon Matsumura, books do not sell not read straight through without stop- Imaizumi was casually displayed. It only in the autumn, the good season ping. was like being in a museum. for reading, but in all other seasons "...I am not the kind of customer I stopped in front of the oil paint- as well. ("The Seasons at a Country that scrounges for the rare old ing "Cordonnerie" by Yuzo Saeki Bookstore") books. It does not bother me if the (1925). It went right to my heart just Buying a book, its cover smells, in book is the first edition or a large thinking that it was a painting done the snowy year-end version. I buy the literature, in in the year that I was born. Yuzo Rinka Ono other words, food for the soul. Saeki, who was young when he When one picks up a book, the That feeling when the very inner passed away, liked to paint scenery cover has a vague scent. It may be packaging is peeled back and the from old Parisian streets. All of the that this scent is what brings people binding finally comes into view! paintings are of crumbling walls. to the bookstore. The first smell. I reverently pick There are remains of graffiti paint "... One of the ways I can unfortu- up the book and quietly turn the and posters that used to be on the nately tell I am growing old is that pages. My eyes glance at the first walls. I can sense the wafting smell I no longer go to the secondhand title and just thinking of the feast I of the old town. The writer Jiro bookstore." (Jiro Osaragi, "Looking am about to partake, I become Osaragi was touched by these paint- for Old Books") deeply moved and my eyes mois- ings and called them "Walls of I have also become of that age. I ten." Autumn Breeze." The austerely ele- have the most difficult time looking I do not know of anyone who has gant colors stayed in my mind for a for books as I put my glasses on and written so emotionally about the joy long time. off. My perseverance is becoming of reading. He sobs over the scent of Autumn is the season of literature limited. Still, when I hear that in books as follows: "I can tell each of as well as of art. This year as in pre- reader polls 70 year old and up are my books by their scent. Just by put- vious years, the area around Kanda still going strong, I am encouraged ting the tip of my nose in the pages, I was alive with the old books festival. by their undying love of reading. instantly know everything." They say that these days more and Morihiro Hosokawa, who has now When I think of the words of more people are gearing away from entered the elegantly rustic life of Ryecroft: "I will read without stop- books, but looking at the herd of peo- "work in good weather, read in wet" ping until the end... and I will forget." ple gathered for the old books festi- recommended "Private Papers of And then read the following essay, I val, I felt that it may not as bad as Henry Ryecroft" by George Gissing. cannot help but clap my hands. they say. But, when I hear that book When I looked it up, I found that this "... The thing is that I can only lovers are lessening every year, I feel book was published in 1903, but remember bits of what I have read as sad as if looking at leaves falling Shukotsu Togawa and others intro- before. But I still read on with joy. with the cold winter wind. duced it early on in Japan so that it I am not trying to become a scholar Hisashi Matsumura writes: was printed by Kaizo Bunko in 1939. to prepare for the future. It does Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 23 not matter to me anymore what I the following postcard: scholar is also known for the collec- forget. I just fully enjoy the I found it, I found it!! tion of poetry collections, and he moment..." This is it, This is it!! mentions in the essay "Searching for Jiro Osaragi, who was also a book My heart beats fast Old Books" that among the poets lover, said the following: Even as I walk home through writing in the late Taisho era 1912 - "... to read a book is to make the the city 25, there were "books that were author your friend. ...it is a diffi- I smile to myself smoked with incense." cult job to find a good friend It is a great find In the incense ceremony, I hear among people, but it is somewhat This is a postcard that he wrote to that they say "listen to the scent." easier to find one in a book. The Gyofu Soma on May 20, 1931. It is The Kanda Secondhand Books Street point is not to let go once you find accompanied by a caricature of him- is filled with such enticing scents of a good friend. ("To Get Used to self in kimono with both arms raised old books. If you stop and listen Books") in a banzai upon finally finding the carefully, you can vaguely hear the No secondhand bookstore is pret- book "Bonjin Jodo." books calling. As I hear the scent of ty. But looking at the sleeve of the That reminded me of a time quite a these old books, I walk the street books piled high; I sometimes have long time ago when I paid good again in search of a good friend. the feeling that "It was a good day." money to purchase a massive box set Fixing the jacket, an old book It is the smell of the old books that of all eight books: "Complete Works scrapes by as new, on a cold calls me. of Gyofu Soma" and made me grin autumn night Bunya Okamoto of Shinnai is also with glee. This was because the Nobutsuna Sasaki one who was drawn by this smell. "Bonjin Jodo" was in the first book of Opening the "Letters of Bunya Okamoto" (Sangetsu Shobo), I stop at the series. Kozo Kawamori, a French literary ( Former Member of the House of Representatives ) Commercial Operation Starts at No. 5 Hamaoka NPS The unit No. 5 reactor in Hamaoka the biggest generating capacity of all in total amount rose from 11% to 15%, Nuclear Power Station of Chubu Electric power reactors in operation in Japan. reducing thermal power by this volume Power Co. started commercial operation Construction was begun in March 1999 and contributing to measures against on January 18. It is three years since the and total construction costs came to global warming. last nuclear reactor began commercial approximately 360 billion yen. This October, the unit No. 1 reactor of operation in January 2002 at the unit No. Through the operation of this reactor, Tohoku Electric Power Co.'s Higashidori 3 reactor in Tohoku Electric Power Co.'s the total output of the 5 reactors of Nuclear Power Station is planned to start Onagawa Nuclear Power Station. This is Hamaoka nuclear power station will be 5 operation. As environmental preservation the 53rd commercial nuclear power plant million kW - second in output behind is becoming a importation issue at the in operation in Japan. Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s Kashiwazaki global stage, the role of nuclear energy is This unit No. 5 reactor is an advanced Kariwa Nuclear Power Station. The ratio sure to increase more and more in order to boiling water reactor (ABWR) and with of its electricity generation by nuclear secure a stable supply of energy. the installed capacity of 1,380 MWe, it has power plants of Chubu Electric Power Co. 24 Plutonium No.48 Winter 2005 Editor's Postscripts Looking at the news of the big tidal wave how, knowledge, and experience on prepara- Saturn's largest moon Titan which was 179 from the earthquake of Sumatra I shouted at tions/prevention of disasters, so that we can degrees below zero and sent back sound and the television, "Don't keep looking, hurry and be prepared for the future. picture. This is a wonderful thing. Titan, run, hurry up and run!" - forgetting it was a Tests using uranium were started at the which was discovered in the 17th century, is video. It is just too awful that there were reprocessing plant in Rokkasho-mura. This is the only satellite in the solar system that has a more than 240,000 deaths. our energy facility at the final stage of con- very thick atmosphere, and is said to be in the It is too sad that Japan's experience was struction, considering energy demand of the same environment as was Earth before life was not taken as reference. But, it is frightful to whole of 21st century. We hope that all those born 3.5 to 3.8 billion years ago. Huygens was think that even in Japan, there were none who involved will handle things in all earnestness sent off in 1997, and took seven years to reach expected the Hanshin Earthquake ten years so that after uranium tests, they will be able to Titan. It sent pictures back immediately after ago. We hope that Japan can fully contribute move smoothly into commercial operations. landing. Unfortunately, the radio waves only not only financial relief but Japanese know- The small Huygens probe landed on lasted 30 minutes after the landing.