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The Demand for Higher Education
in Missouri
2006 Missouri ACT Council Conference
March 8, 2006
Michael Podgursky
Department of Economics
University of Missouri - Columbia
1
P
S
EDD = f (return to HC, pop)
D D’
ED
2
First Time Full Time Freshmen Enrollment in Missouri Higher Education Institutions
40,000
39,000
38,000
37,000
36,000
FT FT Freshmen
35,000
34,000
33,000
32,000
31,000
30,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
3
Predicting High School Graduates Using Lagged Grade Level Enrollments
History Forecast
60000
8th
57500 9th
11th 10th
55000
# HS Grads
52500
Predictions based on grade
level enrollments reported in
50000 2003-04.
47500
45000
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Years
Actual Graduates predicted_G12 predicted_G11
predicted_G10 predicted_G9 predicted_G8
4
Male and Female Fall Enrollment Rates
(US)
45.0
40.0
male
female
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
Source: October Current Population Survey
5
Missouri Higher Education Enrollment by Gender:
First-Time, Full-Time Undergraduate Totals
25000
Percent Growth 2001 - 2005
Male = 12.8 %
20000
Female = 15.6 %
15000
Male
Female
10000
5000
0
2001 2005
Source: Mo. Dept. of Higher Education
6
College Attendance Rates:
3 Year Moving Averages
(US)
80
White
70
60
Percent
50
Black
40
30
20
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: NCES
7
Gross Benefits from
Human Capital Investments
Are Large
Source: Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p23-210.pdf 8
… and have increased over the
last three decades
Source: Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p23-210.pdf 9
What about “affordability?”
What is the effect of tuition or
financial aid on enrollment?
10
0, +
Family College
Income Attendance
+ +
K-12 Academic Achievement
Non-Cognitive Skills
11
Stephen Cameron and James Heckman. “The Dynamics of Educational
Attainment for Black, Hispanic, and White Males.” Journal of Political
Economy. Vol. 102, No. 5 (2001), pp. 455-499.
12
“The strong correlation between college
attendance and family income is widely
interpreted as evidence that short-term borrowing
constraints impede enrollment. We argue that the
importance of short-term credit constraints is
greatly exaggerated. It is the long-term influence
of family income and family background as
captured by our measure of ability, or
equivalently by parental education, that best
explains the correlation. Family income matters,
but it has its greatest influence on forming the
ability and college readiness of children and not
in financing college education.”
Stephen Cameron and James Heckman. “The Dynamics of Educational
Attainment for Black, Hispanic, and White Males.” Journal of Political
Economy. Vol. 102, No. 5 (2001), pp. 455-499.
13
Poor Preparation
Return to HC = Discounted Benefits – Discounted Cost
14
Plot of Grade 4 MAP Mathematics Percent Proficient and Advanced
Against Percent Eligible for Free or Reduced Lunch (Building Level)
100
90
80
70
MAP -- % Top 2
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% FRL Eligible
15
Plot of Grade 3 MAP Communication Arts Percent Proficient and
Advanced Against Percent Eligible for Free or Reduced Lunch
(Building Level)
100
90
80
70
MAP -- % Top 2
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% FRL Eligible
16
Communication Arts: White-Black MAP Test Score Gap
0.900
0.850
0.800
0.750
std dev.
g3comgap
0.700 g7comgap
g11comgap
0.650
0.600
0.550
0.500
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
17
Math: White-Black MAP Test Score Gaps
1.100
1.000
0.900
std dev.
g4mathgap
0.800 g8mathgap
g10mathgap
0.700
0.600
0.500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
18
A+ Program
Effect 3 years after Designation
• 2 Year Public HE Enrollment + 7.1 %-pt
• 4 Year Public HE Enrollment - 3.8 %-pt
• Total Public HE Enrollment + 3.3 %- pt
Myoung Lee, Peter Mueser, Michael Podgursky (2005) 19
