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					Urbanization and Migration


            S. Dodaro
             Econ 306
   St. Francis Xavier University
                Background

In the past, rural-urban migration seen as
desirable
– natural process
– withdraw surplus labour from rural sector
– supply manpower needs of urban sector
More recently seen as a major problem
– urban unemployment
– rural - urban imbalance
 Dimensions of rural-urban
        migration

Rural urban migration proceeding at
unprecedented rates
main contributor to rapid growth of urban
areas
       Effects of Migration
Swells rate of urban job seekers relative to
urban population and increases unemployment
Worsens the rural-urban gap as migration is
dominated by educated young people
Increases the costs of job creation. Cost of
urban job creation is greater due to
– greater need for complementary resource inputs
– higher wages and fringe benefits
– capital intensive technology
both as cause and effect of underdevelopment
  Migration as both Cause and
  Effect of Underdevelopment
All policies affecting rural-urban incomes affect
– migration
– the pattern of economic activity
– income distribution, population growth, etc.
Policies
– wage, income and employment policies
– land tenure arrangements (land reform), education,
  production, taxation, credit, provision of social
  services, technology, labour market reform, etc.
   Traditional View of Factors
Determining Rural-Urban Migration

   Social Factors
   Cultural and Psychological factors (bright
   city lights)
   Physical factors
   Demographic factors
   Communication Factors
 More Recent Focus on
      Economics


Push from the agricultural or rural
sector
Pull from the modern or urban sector
Push and Pull determined by a wide
array of factors.
 Characteristics of Migrants

Demographic characteristics
– young men and women
Educational characteristics
– those who are more highly educated
Economic characteristics
– poor because most of those in rural areas are
  poor
Overview of the Todaro Model
Migration seen as purely economic
phenomenon
Decision to migrate is based on differences in
expected rather than actual earnings
if expected earnings are higher in urban areas
then migrate (expected gains from migration)
Determinants of expected earnings
– rural-urban wage differentials
– probability of finding a urban job (linked to level of
  unemployment or employment)
  Overview of the Todaro Model:
           Continued
Factors determining migration
– the urban wage rate
– the rural wage rate
– the probability of finding a job over a certain period
  of time.
migration in the face of urban unemployment is
not irrational
unemployment lowers expected urban income
but as long as it is higher than rural income
then migration occurs and is rational.
Policy implications of the Todaro
              Model


Imbalances in rural-urban employment opportunities
need to be reduced
Urban job creation cannot solve the urban
unemployment problem
Indiscriminate expansion in education will increase
migration and unemployment
Policy implications of the Todaro
        Model: Continued

Wage subsidies and traditional scarcity pricing may be
counterproductive
Need to implement programs of integrated rural
development
  Components of Comprehensive
    Migration and Employment
             Strategy

Creation of rural-urban economic balance
expansion of small scale, L-intensive industries
elimination of factor price distortions
adoption of appropriate L-intensive production
and consumption technology
modification of the education-employment link
  Components of Comprehensive
    Migration and Employment
       Strategy: Continued


Reduction of population growth rate by focusing
on underdevelopment
Decentralizing authority to cities and
neighbourhoods

				
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posted:9/7/2011
language:English
pages:14