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Spatial Decision Support and GIS

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Spatial Decision Support and GIS Powered By Docstoc
					Spatial Decision Support and
            GIS
                NCGIA Core Curriculum
    Unit 127 - Spatial Decision Support Systems
   by Jacek Malczewski, Department of Geography,
        University of Western Ontario, Canada
              Using GIS
• GIS and computers can synthesize data
  and perform analysis and modeling
• But PEOPLE make decisions!
• How can GIS be used as part of the
  decision-making process?
• Decisions can be top down (managers) or
  bottom-up (public participation)
A US ideal: Freedom of Speech
      Spatial Decision Problems
The main characteristics of spatial decision problems
 include:
  – Many alternatives,
  – Consequences of the decision alternatives are spatially variable
  – Each alternative is evaluated on the basis of multiple criteria,
  – Some of the criteria are qualitative others quantitative
  – More then one decision maker (or interest group) involved in the
    decision-making process
  – Decision makers have different preferences on evaluation
    criteria and decision consequences
  – Decisions are often surrounded by uncertainty
  – NIMBYism etc.
Emergency Management
 Decision Support GIS
         For the

    Tampa Bay Region
       Emergency
       Management

• Domestic preparedness
• Vulnerability Assesments
• Mitigation planning
• Training
• Incident management
• Recovery
 Storm
Categories
 Storm
Categories
                                            RVAM


                                              Plot Storm Track
Extreme Risk Property Owners   Notify Now
                                              Input Wind Radii

                                               Identify Parcels

                                               Notify Owners

                                              Assess Damage


                                               Assess Future
                                              Growth Scenarios
                                                        RVAM
Risk Damage Assessment                    Assess Now
                                  Assessment Complete


                  Parcels Affected
                                                          Plot Storm Track
                    Extreme      5299
                                                          Input Wind Radii
                        High     5343                      Identify Parcels

                  Moderate       7167                      Notify Owners

                                                          Assess Damage
                  $ Building Loss Estimate
                     Extreme                               Assess Future
                   100% Loss    1,964,336,700             Growth Scenarios
                        High
                    75% Loss    1,830,798,900
                   Moderate
                    50% Loss     591,793,600

                  Future Growth Losses
   Save Results
                   Scenario 1      12,382,300
    and Exit?
   Yes
   Yes      No
            No     Scenario 2        7,564,900
         Historical Background
• Decision Support System (DSS) based on work by
  Herbert A. Simon in 1950s and 1960s (Simon 1960);
• DSS evolved during the 1970s and 80s
• SDSS concept has evolved in parallel
• IBM's Geodata Analysis and Display System 1970s
  earliest large DSS
• SDSS has been associated with the need to expand the
  GIS capabilities for complex, ill-defined, spatial decision
  problems
• Major growth in research, development, and applications
  of SDSS in the last 10 years
• Many threads with different, but related names, such as
  collaborative SDSS, group SDSS, environmental DSS,
  spatial knowledge based and expert systems, PPGIS
 The Decision-making Process
• Simon divides any decision-making
  process into the phases of decision-
  making
  – intelligence - is there a problem or an
    opportunity for change?
  – design - what are the decision alternatives?
  – choice - which alternative is best?
Simon’s Model
            Planning Stages
•   Problems
•   Goals
•   Objectives
•   Alternatives
•   Evaluations
•   Choice
•   Implementation
•   Monitoring
             Planning Methods
•   SWOT
•   Bargaining
•   Brainstorming
•   DELPHI
•   Scenario writing
•   Consensus building
•   Public meeting support
•   Charrette
•   Consultants
•   Stakeholder involvement
•   Outreach
Example: CommunityViz
    GIS and Decision Support
• GISystems have limited capabilities to
  support the design and choice phases of
  the decision-making process
• GIS provides a static modeling
  environment , reducing their scope as
  decision support tools
• Especially so in the context of problems
  involving collaborative decision-making
            What is SDSS?
• SDSS is an interactive, computer-based system
  designed to support a user or group of users in
  achieving a higher effectiveness of decision
  making while solving a semi-structured spatial
  decision problem;
• The three terms (semi-structured spatial
  problems, effectiveness, and decision support)
  capture the essence of the SDSS concept
      Components of SDSS
• Data Base Management System
  contains the functions to manage the
  geographic data base
• Model Base Management System
  contains the functions to manage the
  model base;
• Dialog Generation and Management
  System manages the interface between
  the user and the rest of the system.
                     DSS Tools
• Procedural programming languages and code libraries (e.g.,
  VB, AML, Avenue, TransCAD - Caliper Script macro
  language, MapInfo - MapBasic);
• Visual progamming language (e.g. STELLA, Cantata and
  Khoros);
• Inter-application communication software (e.g. dynamic data
  exchange (DDE), object linking (OLE), open database
  connectivity (ODBC));
• Simulation languages and software (e.g. SIMULINK,
  SIMULA);
• Application programming interfaces (API) (e.g. the IBM's
  geoManager API, Java Advanced Imaging API, TransCAD's
  API);
• Applets (e.g. GISApplet, Microsoft Visual J++),
• Visual interfaces, graphics and color subroutines (e.g.
  graphical user interfaces – GUI, OpenGL, SVG, etc.)
                DSS Generator
• Package of related hardware and software which
  provides a set of capabilities to quickly and easily build a
  specific SDSS
• GISystems (e.g. ARC/INFO, ArcView, ARCNetwork,
  Spatial Analyst, MapObjects LT, GRASS, IDRISI,
  MapInfo, TransCAD)
• Database packages (e.g. dBase, Access, Paradox);
• Decision analysis and optimization software (e.g. LINDO,
  EXPERT CHOICE, LOGICAL DECISION);
• Statistical and geostatistical software (e.g. S-PLUS,
  SPSS, SAS);
• Simulation (e.g. Spatial Modeling Environment)
               Specific DSS
• Systems devoted to the analysis of a particular
  set of decision problems
• Support decision makers in tackling semi-
  structured problems
• Active Response Geographic Information
  System
• IDRISI Decision Support
• GeoMed
• Spatial Group Choice
• winR+GIS Spatial Decision Support
• CommunityVis
Example: Nuclear power
Since December, 1942: 130 sites




                 Source: www.prop1.org/ 2000/noflymap.htm
          77,000 tons of highly toxic waste
that will be radioactive for hundreds of thousands
                       of years
Where is it now? Wet and dry




                  Source: www.aecl.ca
   50 years of decision-making
• 1957 NRC report recommended burying the
  waste in a permanent repository
• Need a “safe” site for 77,000 tons of highly
  radioactive waste
• Safe means stable for at least 10,000 years as
  measured by radionuclides in surface and
  ground water downstream
• Need a stable place, free from hazards
• Storage-movement-disposal issues
• No solution in spite of 1982 act (DOE by 1998).
• Single site eventually chosen
Yucca Mountain, NV
Problem 1: The journey to Yucca Mt.
Problem 2: Burial
Yucca Mountain Waste Repository

                 What is the
                  radionuclide travel
                  time from the
                  repository to the
                  water table?

                 Question addressed through
                   modeling
                 • Conceptual model
                   selection
                 • Calibration
                 • Predictions
          UZ Travel Time Predictions: 1995-2003
                  Data collection, revised
                  conceptual model,
Early models      computational model                Current models
                  advances


        Effective                        Dual Permeability
        Continuum                        • Fractures can flow even
• Fractures and matrix
                                           when matrix is
  assumed to be in pressure                unsaturated
  equilibrium                            • Calibration could be
• Calibration yielded water                attained with more
  perc. rates of 0.01 to 0.1               reasonable perc. rates
  mm/y, dry fractures                      of 5 mm/y
• Travel times to water table of         • Travel times to water
  about 350,000 years                      table of 10’s to 100’s of
                                           years possible!
                                             Conceptual model uncertainty is critical to
                                             assessment of overall system uncertainty
Cl-36 Observations Confirm Rapid Transport Pathways
                                                                                                    Bomb-Pulse
                                                           10000                                    ~ Bomb-Pulse
                                                                                                    Background
                                                                                                    Faults




                               Measured 36Cl/Cl (x10-15)
                                                           1000




                                                            100
                                                                   0   1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
                                                                                 ESF Distance (m)



                          Atmospheric fallout from nuclear weapons
                          testing (1950’s and 1960’s) is present in
                          fluid 200-300 m below ground surface.
                          Fault zones appear to be the pathway.

  Source: Fabryka-Martin et al., 1997, YMP Milestone SP2224M3
                  The Yucca Mountain Decision Model Framework


 1 Climate                                                                                Unsaturated Zone Flow             5    Waste Package
    Precipitation                                                                                                                Degradation
                                                                                                 4   Seepage

 2 Infiltration                                             From                                                                                 Waste Form
                                                                                                                                                 Degradation
                                                       Mountain Crest
                                                                                                                 Drift Cross
                                                        to Repository                                             Section
 3 Unsaturated
                                                         ~ 1,000 feet
    Zone Flow                                                                 Near-Field Geo-
                                                                                    chemical
                                                                                Environment


                                                                                                                 Thermal           6   Radionuclide
  Unsaturated                                                                              Tpt                                         Mobilization Through
7                                         From                                                                  Hydrology
                                                                                                                                       Engineered Barrier
   Zone Flow                           Repository                                                               Drift Scale
                                                                                                                                       System Transport
      and                            to Water Table
   Transport                           ~ 1,000 feet

    Saturated                                                           GDF
8
    Zone Flow
                      Tcp
                    Tcp
       and           Tcp                                                                                           Biosphere
    Transport                                                                                                       Water

                                                                                                         9              Plants
     Key Attributes of Repository Safety Strategy                                                    Water
                                                                   Tcp                               Well
        Limited Water                                                           Tcp                  ~ 20 km
                                                                                                     Pathway            Animals
                                       Slow Release From
        Contacting Waste
                                       Waste Package                                             Amargosa Valley                    People
        Package
                                                                                         WATER TABLE           Saturated Zone


                                       Low Concentration of
        Long Waste Package             Radionuclides in
        Lifetime                       Groundwater
           Many unknowns
• Will there be new faults and fractures in
  the next 100,000 years?
• Will the local tectonics remain inactive?
• Who will be there to notice in 12,005AD?
• What language do you write the warning
  notice in?
• [etc]
      Current YMP Total System Model
                “Overview”




Can such a model be “understood” by anyone besides the developer?
                  Problem N: Controversy
DOE Admits Yucca Mt. Safety Information May Have Been Lied About
March 17, 2005, 04:25 PM
It's being called a devastating blow to the Yucca Mountain Project -- some of the government's
scientific data may have been faked. Workers on the proposed nuclear waste dump are under
investigation for lying about their research -- meaning the "sound science" President Bush said
he was following might be wrong
                    Summary
• SDSS has been defined as an interactive, computer-
  based system designed to support a user or group of
  users in achieving a higher effectiveness of decision
  making while solving a semi-structured spatial decision
  problem
• The SDSS concept is based on the DDM (dialog, data,
  model) paradigm; a well-design SDSS should have
  balance among the three capabilities.
• There are three sets of technologies for building an
  SDSS: the DSS development tools, the DSS generators,
  and specific SDSS
• The DSS tools facilite the development of specific SDSS
  or they can be configured into a DSS generator which in
  turn can be used to build a variety of specific SDSS.

				
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