The Outlook for Energy

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The Outlook for Energy Powered By Docstoc
					The Outlook for Energy
a view to 2030

                                                                                                                            William M. Colton
                                                                                                                            CSIS
                                                                                                                            January 27, 2011


This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ
materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and
under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes
ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the
International Energy Agency. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
Energy Outlook Basis

                                       100 countries



                        15 demand
                        sectors

                                                  20 fuel
                                                  types


                                 technology & policy

ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                         2
  Global Progress Drives Demand
Population                               GDP
Billion                                  Trillion 2005$
20                                        100
          Average Growth / Yr.                      Average Growth / Yr.
              2005 – 2030                               2005 – 2030
                 0.9%                                      2.8%
                                           80
15


                                          60

10

                                          40


  5
                                          20




  0                                         0
  1980            2005            2030      1980             2005          2030

 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                         3
  Global Progress Drives Demand
Population                               GDP                                      Energy Demand
Billion                                  Trillion 2005$                           Quadrillion BTUs
20                                        100                                     1200
          Average Growth / Yr.                      Average Growth / Yr.                    Average Growth / Yr.
              2005 – 2030                               2005 – 2030                             2005 – 2030
                 0.9%                                      2.8%                                    1.2%
                                                                                  1000
                                           80
15

                                                                                   800
                                          60

10                                                                                 600

                                          40
                                                                                   400

  5
                                          20
                                                                                   200



  0                                         0                                        0
  1980            2005            2030      1980             2005          2030      1980          2005            2030

 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                         4
  Global Progress Drives Demand
Population                               GDP                                      Energy Demand
Billion                                  Trillion 2005$                           Quadrillion BTUs
20                                        100                                     1200
          Average Growth / Yr.                      Average Growth / Yr.                    Average Growth / Yr.
              2005 – 2030                               2005 – 2030                             2005 – 2030
                 0.9%                                      2.8%                                    1.2%
                                                                                  1000
                                           80
15

                                                                                   800
                                          60
                                                                                             Energy Savings        ~300


10                                                                                 600

                                          40
                                                                                   400

  5
                                          20
                                                                                   200



  0                                         0                                        0
  1980            2005            2030      1980             2005          2030      1980          2005            2030

 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                         5
      Expansion Economies Drive Demand
OECD                                                          Non OECD
Quadrillion BTUs                                              Quadrillion BTUs

450                                                           450




                                                                                                Other
300                                                           300
                                                                                               Africa

                                                                                          Middle East
                                              Other
                                                                                        Latin America
150                                                           150                               India
                                       Europe OECD


                                                                                               China
                                       United States

  0                                                             0
  1980                      2005                   2030         1980             2005               2030
      ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                          6
Economic and Energy Evolution
 As societies and technologies develop over time…




 … energy needs evolve as well
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                 7
Economic and Energy Evolution
 As societies and technologies develop over time…




 … energy needs evolve as well
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                 8
Economic and Energy Evolution
 As societies and technologies develop over time…




 … energy needs evolve as well
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                 9
Economic and Energy Evolution
 As societies and technologies develop over time…




 … energy needs evolve as well
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                 10
Economic and Energy Evolution
 As societies and technologies develop over time…




 … energy needs evolve as well
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                 11
   Power Generation Leads Growth

Quadrillion BTUs
 300                                                                                     300



 250



 200

                                                               2005       167

 150



 100



  50



   0
       Transportation       Industrial   Res/Comm   PowerGen          Energy Growth Energy Savings
   ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                    12
   Power Generation Leads Growth

Quadrillion BTUs
 300                                                                                        300


                                                         1.7%
                                                                2030
 250



 200
                              0.9%       AAGR
                                                                  2005       167

 150
             1.3%

 100
                                                0.3%


  50



   0
       Transportation       Industrial     Res/Comm    PowerGen          Energy Growth Energy Savings
   ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                       13
   Power Generation Leads Growth

Quadrillion BTUs
 300                                                                                        300


                                                         1.7%
                                                                2030
 250



 200
                              0.9%       AAGR
                                                                  2005       167

 150
             1.3%

 100
                                                0.3%


  50



   0
       Transportation       Industrial     Res/Comm    PowerGen          Energy Growth Energy Savings
   ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                       14
   Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

Quadrillion BTUs
 250



 200



 150



 100                                2005



  50



   0
              Oil             Gas          Coal   Biomass/Other   Nuclear   Hydro/Geo   Wind, Solar,
                                                                                         Biofuels
   ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                    15
   Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

Quadrillion BTUs
 250

                                                                             World Average Growth/Yr.
            0.7%                                                                 ’05 to ’30 – 1.2%
 200

                              2.0%
                                     2030
 150
                                            0.7% AAGR


 100                                 2005



                                                        0.4%       2.3%
  50

                                                                                  2.1%         9.9%

   0
              Oil             Gas           Coal   Biomass/Other   Nuclear      Hydro/Geo   Wind, Solar,
                                                                                             Biofuels
   ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                     16
       CO2 Emissions Moderate
By Region
Billion Tons

 40




 30

                                 Other Non OECD


                                        India
 20


                                        China

 10



                                        OECD
  0
  1980                       2005                 2030

       ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                         17
       CO2 Emissions Moderate
By Region                                                     Emissions per Capita
Billion Tons                                                  Tons per Person

 40                                                             20   2005

                                                                         2010


 30                                                             15
                                                                            2030
                                 Other Non OECD


                                        India
 20                                                             10


                                        China

 10                                                              5



                                        OECD
  0                                                              0
  1980                       2005                 2030                 United      Europe   China   India
                                                                       States      OECD
       ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                         18
        Electricity Demand Continues to Surge
By Sector
k TWh

30

                                         Transportation



                                            Commercial
20




                                             Residential

                                                   Other
10                                              Industry




                                         Heavy Industry
 0
 1980                         2005                        2030
        ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                                 19
        Electricity Demand Continues to Surge
By Sector                                                             By Region
k TWh                                                                 k TWh

30                                                                    30

                                         Transportation



                                            Commercial
20                                                                    20


                                                                                         Non OECD
                                             Residential

                                                   Other
10                                              Industry              10




                                                                                            OECD
                                         Heavy Industry
 0                                                                     0
 1980                         2005                        2030         1980       2005              2030
        ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                                 20
     Power Generation Mix Evolves
Baseload, Startup 2025
2010 cents/kWh

20

                      $0/ton CO2

15




10




 5




 0
        Coal           Gas         Nuclear   Wind
  ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                    21
     Power Generation Mix Evolves
Baseload, Startup 2025
2010 cents/kWh

20

                     $60/ton CO2

15




10




 5




 0
        Coal           Gas         Nuclear   Wind
  ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                    22
     Power Generation Mix Evolves
Baseload, Startup 2025                                   By Generation
2010 cents/kWh                                           k TWh

20                                                       35

                     $60/ton CO2
                                                         30

15
                                                         25
                                                                                            Gas

                                                         20
10
                                                         15                                 Coal


                                                         10
 5                                                                                       Nuclear
                                                                                     Wind & Solar
                                                          5
                                                                                Other Renewables
 0                                                               Oil
                                                          0
        Coal           Gas         Nuclear   Wind         1980           2005                  2030
  ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                    23
     Transportation Demand Grows Steadily
Demand
MBDOE

70


60                                          Rail

                                          Marine
50




                                                      Commercial
                                        Aviation
40


30                                    Heavy Duty


20
                                                      Personal




10
                                      Light Duty

 0
 1980                      2005                2030
     ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                                   24
     Personal Transportation Demand Flattens
Demand                                                                  Personal Vehicle Demand Changes
MBDOE                                                                   MBDOE

70                                                                      35


60                                          Rail                        30

                                          Marine
50                                                                      25




                                                      Commercial
                                        Aviation
40                                                                      20


30                                    Heavy Duty                        15


20                                                                      10
                                                      Personal




10                                                                       5
                                      Light Duty

 0                                                                       0
 1980                      2005                2030                          2005                         2030
     ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                                   25
     Personal Transportation Demand Flattens
Demand                                                                  Personal Vehicle Demand Changes
MBDOE                                                                   MBDOE

70                                                                      35


60                                          Rail                        30

                                          Marine                                Fleet
50                                                                      25




                                                      Commercial
                                        Aviation
40                                                                      20


30                                    Heavy Duty                        15


20                                                                      10
                                                      Personal




10                                                                       5
                                      Light Duty

 0                                                                       0
 1980                      2005                2030                          2005                         2030
     ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                                   26
     Personal Transportation Demand Flattens
Demand                                                                  Personal Vehicle Demand Changes
MBDOE                                                                   MBDOE

70                                                                      35              Distance per Vehicle


60                                          Rail                        30

                                          Marine                                Fleet                          Mandated
50                                                                      25




                                                      Commercial
                                        Aviation                                                               Other
40                                                                      20
                                                                                                       Fuel
                                                                                                     Economy
30                                    Heavy Duty                        15


20                                                                      10
                                                      Personal




10                                                                       5
                                      Light Duty

 0                                                                       0
 1980                      2005                2030                          2005                                  2030
     ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                                   27
      Global Demand
By Sector                                                          By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs                                                   Quadrillion BTUs

700                                                                 700


                                             Res/Comm                                        Renewables
600                                                                 600
                                                                                               Biomass

500                                                                 500                         Nuclear
                                              Industrial

400                                                                 400                           Coal


300                                                                 300
                                       Power Generation
                                                                                                   Gas
200                                                                 200


100                                                                 100
                                         Transportation                                             Oil
  0                                                                   0
  1980                       2005                      2030           1980            2005                2030
      ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                              28
  New Sources of Supply Expand Globally
Global
MBDOE

120

                                                                   Oil Sands


 90                                                                     Deepwater
                                  Liquids Demand
                                                                    Biofuels, Other

                                                           NGLs, OPEC Condensate

 60
                                                                Non-OPEC Crude &
                                                                      Condensate


 30


                                                          OPEC Conventional Crude


  0
  1980                                             2005                           2030
 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                   29
  Natural Gas Grows in All Areas

Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
700


600

                               Other
500

                                   Coal
400


300
                                   Gas

200
                                    Oil
100


   0
   1980            2005               2030


  ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                             30
  Natural Gas Grows in All Areas

Demand                                       By Region
Quadrillion BTUs                             BCFD
700                                          500


600
                                             400
                               Other                          Asia Pacific
500

                                   Coal      300              Middle East
400

                                                          North America
300
                                             200
                                   Gas
                                                          Latin America
200
                                    Oil      100                  Europe
100                                                                Africa

                                                         Russia/Caspian
   0                                           0
   1980            2005               2030     1980      2005           2030


  ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                         31
  Natural Gas Grows in All Areas

Demand                                       By Region                       By Sector
Quadrillion BTUs                             BCFD                            BCFD
700                                          500                             500


600
                                             400                               400
                               Other                          Asia Pacific
500
                                                                                         Power Generation
                                   Coal      300              Middle East      300
400

                                                          North America
300
                                             200                               200
                                   Gas
                                                          Latin America
                                                                                                  Industrial
200
                                    Oil      100                  Europe       100
100                                                                Africa

                                                         Russia/Caspian                        Res/Comm
   0                                           0                                 0
   1980            2005               2030     1980      2005           2030     1980      2005           2030


  ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                         32
Development Challenges and Solutions

      World development continues, while lives improve and economies grow




                                          8 billion people
                                    100% increase in global GDP

                                 35% increase in energy demand
                             300 quadrillion BTUs saved via efficiency

                                 A diverse mix of affordable fuels to
                                       enhance energy security




ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                 33
Development Challenges and Solutions




                                              Increase
                                              Efficiency



                                 Technology

   Mitigate                                          Expand
  Emissions                                          Supply


ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                     34
       Energy Needs Evolve Over Time
   Global Demand By Fuel
   Percent
                                                                     Other Renewables
    100
                                                                     Nuclear
                                                                      Hydro


     80                                                        Gas



                                                         Oil
     60


                                           Coal
     40




     20
             Biomass


      0
          1850                          1900      1950                   2000           2030

       ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                   35
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil
       Energy Needs Evolve Over Time
   Global Demand By Fuel
   Percent
                                                                     Other Renewables
    100
                                                                     Nuclear
                                                                      Hydro


     80                                                        Gas



                                                         Oil
     60


                                           Coal
     40




     20
             Biomass


      0
          1850                          1900      1950                   2000           2030

       ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                   36
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil
       Energy Needs Evolve Over Time
   Global Demand By Fuel
   Percent
                                                                     Other Renewables
    100
                                                                     Nuclear
                                                                      Hydro


     80                                                        Gas



                                                         Oil
     60


                                           Coal
     40




     20
             Biomass


      0
          1850                          1900      1950                   2000           2030

       ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                   37
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil
       Energy Needs Evolve Over Time
   Global Demand By Fuel
   Percent
                                                                     Other Renewables
    100
                                                                     Nuclear
                                                                      Hydro


     80                                                        Gas



                                                         Oil
     60


                                           Coal
     40




     20
             Biomass


      0
          1850                          1900      1950                   2000           2030

       ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                                   38
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
                                 39

				
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