Gippsland Region.ppt by lovemacromastia


									                   The issue:
        Pollution is heating the planet

• The overwhelming majority of scientists believe that the earth’s
  climate is changing because of the human induced output of CO2
  and other greenhouse gases.

• These impacts have the potential to cause major changes in the
  way we live and behave

• To reduce the output of greenhouse gases we will have to change
  the way we use our resources and the way we behave
    Climate Change, Fire and Flood

Climate Change in Victoria
             The greenhouse effect

• Carbon dioxide, methane and other gases trap some of the
  sun’s energy in the earth’s atmosphere. If they weren’t here
  the earth would be 30 degrees cooler

• However, burning of fossil fuels, intensive agriculture and land
  clearing, are causing greenhouse gas concentrations to rise
  above natural levels, further heating the planet.

• Increased concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere
  will increase global temperatures which will in turn change our
  climate worldwide.
                   IPCC Conclusion ?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which
advises the United Nations, concluded that:

Climate change has accelerated in recent decades, and that most
of the warming over the past 50 years is attributable to the increase
in greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. IPCC Report
                           Some facts

The earth’s diameter is 12,742 km
By mass, 50% of the earth’s
atmosphere is below an altitude of
5.6 km .

90% of the atmosphere is below an
altitude of 16 km.

Relative to the size of the earth,
there isn’t much atmosphere

Australians are each putting 27.5
tonnes of CO 2 into the atmosphere
each year
                Earth Lights (NASA 2007)

Earth’s population is 6.6 Billion
7 billion tonnes emitted each year through combustion of fossil fuels
1-2 billion tonnes emitted per year from land clearing (CSIRO 2007).
Relationship between CO 2. weather and

• Ocean temperatures and currents have a major impact on the
  earth’s weather.

• Rising global temperatures will increase weather events such
  as El Nino
Rising global temperatures may induce
   unwanted events such as El Nino
Changes in Carbon Dioxide Levels
Link of temperature to CO2 level
Global trends in temperature and rainfall

• The Earth’s surface has warmed about 0.6 degrees in the
  past 100 years, with the 10 warmest years all occurring since

• Other evidence of global warming includes more heatwaves,
  warming of the oceans and lower atmosphere, less snow, and
  glacial retreat.
        Temperature Trends In Australia

Since middle of the 20th century, Australian temperatures have, on
average, risen by about 1°C
          Rainfall Trends in Australia

In Northwest there has been an increase in rainfall over the last
50 years. Much of eastern Australia and the far southwest have
experienced a decline (BoM 2007)
        Global Sea Level Predictions

Sea levels increase
10-20 mm last century
and are predicted to
rise 9-88 cm by 2100
-if we don’t reduce
         Victoria’s Climate Change
The latest findings for Victoria from CSIRO indicate that by 2070:

•   Victoria is likely to be 0.8 to 5.0°C warmer that it was in 1990

•   Up to three times more hot days above (+35ºC) in some areas

•   Much of the state likely to be frost-free

•   Rainfall decreases are likely.
     – +10% to -25% in most southern and eastern regions, and
     – +10% to -40% in most northern regions

•   Extreme daily rainfall events may become more intense and more frequent in
    many regions

•   Weather conditions conducive to bushfire will increase

•   Droughts may become more frequent and more intense.
 Climate Change – West Gippsland

Future climate
• Future climate in the West Gippsland region is expected to be
  warmer and drier than it is presently.

• Annual warming of 0.2 to 1.4ºC by 2030 and 0.7 to 4.3ºC by
  2070. Seasonal warming for the region is expected to
• By 2030 it is expected that the number of hot days (over
  35ºC) will increase by 10 to 100% and by 2070 the number
  will increase by 30 to 400%.
• With climate change, there will be a substantial reduction in
  the number of frosts by 2030 and a possible loss of all frost by
   Climate Change – West Gippsland

• Annual warming of 0.2 to 1.4ºC by 2030 and 0.7 to 4.3ºC by
  2070. Seasonal warming for the region is expected to

• By 2030 it is expected that the number of hot days (over
  35ºC) will increase by 10 to 100% and by 2070 the number
  will increase by 30 to 400%.

• With climate change, there will be a substantial reduction in
  the number of frosts by 2030 and a possible loss of all frost by
   Climate Change – West Gippsland
• Rainfall in spring, autumn and winter is likely to decrease,
  however these decreases will likely be strongest in the spring.

• Annual precipitation decreases are likely - changes of +3% to
  -10% by 2030 and +10 to -25% by 2070.

• Areas which experience natural snow cover in Victoria will
  decrease by 10 to 39% by 2020 and 22 to 85% by 2050.
  Decreases in snow depth and duration of the snow season
  will be greatest at lower elevation alpine areas.
    Climate Change – West Gippsland

Humidity and solar radiation

•   With climate change, humidity is expected to decrease over
    most of Victoria. In summer and autumn, decreases of up to
    3% by 2030 and 9% by 2070 are projected, with larger and
    more widespread decreases occurring in winter and spring.

• By 2090, the cloud cover is expected to decrease by 2 to 4%
  in summer and 4 to 6% in winter.
   Climate Change – West Gippsland
Water catchments and stream flow
• Potential evaporation is expected to increase by 2 to 8% per
  degree of global warming.

• Runoff in the La Trobe River is estimated to decrease by 0 to
  20% by 2030 and by 5% to more than 25% by 2070. (Due to
  limitations in the model used to generate these projections,
  very large changes cannot be accurately quantified, therefore
  the upper range of projections for 2070 is uncertain)

• Runoff in the Thomson River is estimated to decrease by 0 to
  25% by 2030 and by 5% to more than 25% by 2070.

• Soils are likely to be drier, even if the amount of rain received
  does increase.
   Climate Change – West Gippsland
Extreme events
• Extreme heavy rainfall events may be more intense.

• Hotter, drier conditions will increase bushfire risk - for Sale,
  the number of days where the Forest Fire Danger Index
  (FFDI) is in the extreme or very high category is expected to
  increase by 16 to 61% by 2050. Similarly, the number of days
  where the Grass Fire Danger Index (GFDI) is in the extreme
  or very high category is expected to increase by 9 to 30% by

• Droughts are likely to become more frequent and longer in
  duration, particularly in winter-spring. Dry conditions that
  currently occur on average one in every five years in winter-
  spring) may increase up to one in three years by 2030.
   Climate Change – West Gippsland

•  Winds are likely to intensify in coastal regions of Victoria,
   particularly in winter as a result of more intense low pressure
   systems. Low pressure systems off the east coast of
   Australia may become more frequent.

Sea level
•  Sea level rise of 7 to 55cm by 2070 (0.8 to 8.0cm per
   decade by 2100).
   Climate Change – West Gippsland
Climate change impacts

Primary production
Identified areas of risk for the region include:
• grazing and horticulture are likely to benefit from higher
   carbon dioxide concentrations, but these gains may be offset
   by the effect of higher temperatures - an overall negative
   impact on production is more likely is substantial rainfall
   decreases accompany the warming
• likely reductions in water available for irrigation will also
   impact on dairy farming and irrigated agriculture in the region
• warmer temperatures will also increase risk of heat stress in
   dairy cattle, reducing milk production, unless management
   measures such as shade sheds and other cooling measures
   are adopted
• warming is likely to increase opportunities for cool climate
   viticulture in the South Gippsland hills.
     Climate Change – West Gippsland
Water resource management

• Victoria's water resources are likely to become increasingly
  vulnerable to climate change. The need to use water more
  efficiently will be increased by climate change. While demand
  for water can be expected to increase as a result of warmer
  temperatures and increased evaporation, this does not take into
  account possible offsetting impacts of increases in seasonal
  rainfall patterns.
• Water quality may also be impacted by climate change,
  including, water temperature, carbon dioxide concentration, the
  number and types of organisms, transportation of water
  sediment and chemicals, and the volume of water flow.
• Decreases in stream flow, impacts on coastal underground
  water and intertidal habitats, and increased salinity will be
  critical issues for water supply and management as well as
  natural resource management.
        Climate Change – West Gippsland
The changes to West Gippsland’s climate outlined above will have significant effects on
   biodiversity, including:
• the Wilson’s Promontory bioregion is an extremely important refuge for southern Victorian
   flora and fauna
• plains vegetation is highly fragmented and the impacts of climate change on these areas is
   poorly understood
• Gippsland’s coastal areas are extremely important as a source of and a mainland refuge
   for the marine biodiversity of cooler southern waters and for fisheries
• estuarine ecosystems and wetlands, including the Gippsland Lakes, will be threatened by
   sea level rise, changes to salinity and potential loss of vegetation on the coastal fringe
• migration of plants and animals (up slope and southward).
• It is probable that climate change is already affecting Victoria’s plants and animals, but
   further research is needed to better identify the effects of climate change on biodiversity.
   Many of Victoria's ecosystems have a limited ability to adapt to climate change. Those
   restricted to small geographic areas, or unable to migrate fast enough to keep pace with
   shifting climatic zones, will be particularly vulnerable. However, some ecosystems and
   species will be advantaged or unaffected by climate change.
• Ecosystems and species will respond directly to changing climate conditions, but at the
   same time will have to cope with and adapt to other climate-induced changes in land use
   and changes in pests and diseases, particularly invasions by introduced species.
      Climate Change – West Gippsland

• Climate change will impact on Victoria's coastal areas through sea-level
  rise, increased temperatures and changing storm patterns. Although the
  exact nature of impacts is difficult to predict, many natural systems,
  including estuaries, coastal vegetation, wetlands and reefs are likely to
  have difficulty adapting to climate change and may become increasingly
• Current settlement and development trends in coastal areas are likely to
  lead to greater community risk and insurance exposure to current and
  future hazards.
• The eastern coastline of Victoria contains large regions of dunes
  topography that is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Greater
  erosion due to increasing sea levels and possibly more intense storms
  may make dune increasingly mobile. Low-lying wetlands will be
  vulnerable to more frequent inundation due to sea level rise, storm
  surges and possibly more extreme run-off events.
       Climate Change – West Gippsland
Alpine areas

•   Some important areas of the Victorian alpine environment lie within the northern
    areas of the region, with the most significant of these being the Mt Baw Baw
•   The Alps’ habitat is important to unique communities of plants and animal
    species, many of which are already threatened or endangered – for example the
    Baw Baw frog of the alpine wet heathlands of Mt Baw Baw. Species whose
    habitat is located in the highest elevations and the coldest environments will
    have nowhere to retreat to as the climate warms, and will therefore be
    threatened with extinction.
•   Australian alpine ecosystems and species are highly adapted to their
    environment and are extremely sensitive to changes in climate. Decreasing
    snow cover, increasing risk of fire and invasion by weeds and other species will
    also have an impact.
•   The alpine resort of Mt Baw Baw is also a key economic driver for surrounding
    communities, and will be affected by reduced natural snow cover as a result of
    climate change. CSIRO research indicates that the average duration of natural
    snow cover at Mt Baw Baw will reduce from it current 80 days on average to 30
    to 70 days by 2020, and 0 to 50 days by 2050.
     Global Economics -Stern Report

• United Kingdom released the Stern Review on the economics
  of climate change. The review, authored by Sir Nicholas Stern
  head of the UK Government Economic Service, is the most
  comprehensive account of the economics of climate change
  ever published.
• The review concludes that unabated climate change risks
  raising average global temperatures by over 5°C from pre-
  industrial levels, transforming both the plant’s human and
  physical geography.
• Stern concludes that unabated climate change would cost at
  least 5%, and up to 20%, of global GDP annually. In contrast,
  the costs of mitigation activities could be limited to 1% of
  global GDP annually.
                      Stern Report
• There is still time to act to avoid worst impacts if we act now
• The longer we wait the more it will cost to act
• Climate change will have a serious impact on growth and
• The costs of stabilising the climate are significant but
  manageable; delay would be dangerous and much more
• A range of options exist to cut emissions; strong deliberate
  policy action is required motivate their take-up
• Need international approach which need not cap the
  aspirations of developing nations
                      Equity issues

• Stern report : The impacts of climate change are not evenly
  distributed – the poorest countries will suffer the earliest and
  the most.

• When the damages appear it will be too late to reverse the
  process. Thus we are forced to look a long way ahead
Equity issues
   The State Government’s Approach
• State has set target to reduce CO2 emissions to 60% of 2002 levels
  by 2070
• Electricity generation highest emitter of CO2 followed by transport
  and agriculture
• Victorian Greenhouse Strategy has been put in place to tackle the
• The broad strategy is:
   – Adapt to inevitable climate change
   – Head off avoidable future climate change by :
       • Increasing the efficient use of energy
       • Use more renewable energy
       • Fix carbon (eg forests, carbon sequestration of gases from
          coal production
   The State Government’s Approach

• The broad strategy is:
   – Adapt to inevitable climate change
   – Head off avoidable future climate change by :
      • Increasing the efficient use of energy
      • Use more renewable energy
      • Fix carbon (eg forests, carbon sequestration of gases
        from coal production
     Some of the State Government’s
• Working with business and householders to reduce waste;
  adopt energy efficient appliances and to use more renewable

• Research into the sequestration of CO2 from coal driven
  energy sources

• Support for introducing coal drying technology into the state’s
  coal mines

• Changes in building codes and environmental effects
   The State Government’s Programs

• Support for national emissions trading system

• Support for disclosure of carbon emissions from big emitters –
  pre cursor to trading system

• Working with Victoria’s automotive industry to increase the
  use of renewable fuels and to produce green and
  internationally competitive cars

• Waste management programs to reduce overall waste

• Use of greenhouse gases from waste and land fills
The State Government’s Programs

• Improved public transport focusing on use of renewable fuels,
  better transport planning and urban development

• Support for local government to adopt increased energy
  efficiency and to lead the community to do the same

• Working with the finance and superannuation industries to
  focusing investment in greener industries

• Government leading by buying greener products and adopting
  more energy efficient processes

• Research into climate change
                    What can you do today
If you want to do something now go to our DSE external website

1.    Use less hot water

2.    Switch to green power

3.    Minimise energy used for lighting

4.    Choose energy efficient appliances

5.    Reduce household waste

6.    Use public transport, carpool of walk

7.    Choose a fuel efficient car

8.    Stop use of standby power

9.    Install programmable thermostat for your air conditioning

10.   Draft proof your house
      The Great Divide Fires 2006/7

Q. Are we already in a changed situation, IPCC conclusion
  would suggest the events may not be unusual but would
  be the type of environment we may need to live in.
                  2007 Fire Statistics

– Fire (s) commenced - 1 December 2006
– Fire contained - 7 February 2007 (69 days)
– Fire size 1,116,408 ha (677,782 - Gippsland)
– IFACC locations (Benalla/Traralgon)
– IMT Locations
    • NE - Mansfield, Benalla, Ovens
    • Gipps - Erica, Heyfield, Bairnsdale, Swifts Ck
– Firefighting agencies involved
    • Victoria - DSE, CFA, PV, DPI, VF
    • Interstate - SA, NSW, WA, QLD, NT
    • International - USA, Canada, NZ
                 Drought then Flood

• Effect of drought on fire - For the past 10 years, the south-eastern
  portion of Australia, including Victoria, has been subjected a severe
  drought, including record low levels of rainfall over extended periods
  for both winter and summer periods. Exceptionally low soil moisture
  levels and very dry, elevated fuels resulted in the 2006/2007 Great
  Divide Complex wildfires extending over an area of approximately 1
  million hectares over a 2-month period.

• Effect of fire on “run-off - The severity of the drought, combined
  with the intensity and extent of the Great Divide Fire clearly
  contributed to the seriousness of the recent floods and extent of soil
  erosion. Whole sub catchments in the headwaters of the
  Macalister, Thomson, Wellington and Mitchell rivers were left with
  little protective vegetative cover, and with only 4 months of recovery
  time for native vegetation to recover from fire, considerable areas of
  bare ground were subject to extensive erosion.
        Fire Statistics - Gippsland

-   78 fires suppressed in Gippsland in same period
-   Fire Size - 677,782 ha
-   Fire perimeter - 850 km
-   Firefighters involved - > 7500
-   Machinery at peak - 150
-   Helicopters at peak - 13 helis(3H, 4M, 6L)
-   Fixed wing at peak - 4 firebombers, 4 recce planes
       Fire Statistics - Community

– Public Meetings - 203 involving 16,965 people
– Community affected
   • 385 farms assessed
   • 28 farms with stock losses
   • 50 farms with urgent needs
   • 39 farms with crown boundary fencing losses
– Losses
   • 15 houses, 12 woolsheds, 142 misc buildings,
   • 133 kms crown boundary, 439 km boundary, 252 km
     internal fencing,
   • 1475 stock (incl 372 sheep, 809 cattle,27 goats,122
   • 19859 ssbe hay,8856 ha pasture lost
   • 174 ha field crop, 237 ha horticulture
                   Fire Statistics

• DSE DVD on The Great Divide Fires 2006/2007

• DVD of fire bomber at Work in the Cowwarr Area During the
  2006/2207 fires
                Fire Damage

Log Crossings
              Fire Damage

                            Road Surface

Fill Batter
  Gippsland Floods - 1998 Flood East
Historical Flood Information - Gippsland 1998

• In June 1998 heavy rainfall in the vicinity of 284.6mm in 24hrs at Club
  Terrace, East Gippsland resulted in heavy flooding in the Lakes
  Entrance area. The rainfall was largely confined to the catchments of
  the Tambo, Nicholson, Mitchell, Thomson and Latrobe rivers. The rain
  was caused by the development of an intense low pressure system
  near the coast of New South Wales which moved south along the
  coast from NSW into the East Gippsland region1. Research found that
  streamflows from eastern rivers dominated Gippsland inflows over the
  course of this event, contributing a combined flow of 320,000
DPI recorded losses:
• No. Properties with damage    1,483
• Buildings Damaged Or Lost     319
• Stock Losses 40,725
• Fencing lost (boundary) (Km)  569
• Area damaged (Ha)      18,477
• Hay Lost (SBE)         39,189
       1998 Flood – Omeo Area

                         Full flood – exposed hillsides were
                         vulnerable in the heavy rainstorms

Soil erosion Omeo area
                   Gippsland - 2007 Flood

Cause of the Flood Situation

•   A large easterly cold front on Wednesday 27 June caused major flooding in the Gippsland region.
    All river catchments in Gippsland were affected including Latrobe, Traralgon, Thomson,
    Macalister, Avon, Mitchell, Tambo, Snowy and Far East.

•   Rainfall for the 48 hours until 09:00 on 28 June was in the range of 100 – 200 mm across Central
    and East Gippsland in the river catchments of the Latrobe, Thomson, Macalister, Avon, Mitchell,
    Tambo, Snowy and Genoa Rivers and all waterways therein. Rainfall for the 24 hours until 09:00
    29 June was in the range of 40 – 50 mm. Rainfall for the 24 hours until 09:00 30 June was in the
    range of 0 – 10 mm. Many of these river catchments had also been burnt in the 2006/07 Great
    Divide Fire.

•   The Macalister River runs through Glenmaggie Weir into the Thomson River south of Maffra.
    Inflow peaked at 315,000 ML/day (capacity is 190,000 ML) and the maximum spill from it was at a
    rate of 147,000 ML per day (during the early morning of 29 June, equivalent to ¾ of it’s capacity).
    The major flood level spill rate is 35,000 ML. During 28 June, northern parts of the Macalister
    Irrigation District from the weir wall through Tinamba to the Thomson River were severely flooded.
    The township of Newry was cut off for several hours and 30 people were airlifted to safety.

•   Maps 1 and 2 (on pages 2 and 3) show the extent of the floods.
  Gippsland - 2007 Flood

The deep low pressure system as seen by satellite
     Snapshot of 2007 Gippsland Flood
Losses included:

• 13 Farm Houses, 6 Woolsheds and 1 Dairy Shed, 9 Homes Declared

• 954 km Crown Boundary Fencing, 661 km Boundary Fencing, 1,217 km
  Internal Fencing

• 2,965 Sheep, 559 Beef Cattle, 268 Dairy Cattle, 6 Horses, 13 Goats, 43

• 3,112 tonnes of hay and 221 tonnes of grain

• 22,207 ha pasture, 2,666 ha of field crops and 574 ha of Horticultural

Source DPI Operational Report 2007

•   Approx. 30 communities affected –

•   Including Licola, Tinamba, Newry, Sale, Bairnsdale, Stratford, Lakes
    Entrance, Loch Sport, Paynesville, Raymond Island and other Gippsland
    Lakes Communities

•   High rainfall in 2007 and run-off moved significant amounts of light debris
    from burnt areas of fires into gullies and waterways

•   Floodwaters also moved woody debris from waterways and floodplains

•   Combined load trapped at structures on waterways
•   Significant damage to bridges (eg. Cheynes Bridge)

•   Debris stockpiling also caused damage to banks and deflected flows
Gippsland Floods 2007

                   Wellington Shire Office
                  (Municipal Emergency Control
     Gippsland Floods 2007

Cheyne’s Bridge

                    Slip Road Paynesville
            Gippsland Floods 2007

Debris - Cowwarr Weir

                         Mitchell silt jetties 2 July 07
             Gippsland Floods 2007

                                Lakes Entrance 2 Jul 07

Snowy River Entrance 2 Jul 07
      Gippsland Floods 2007

Maffra 2 Jul 07

                    Traralgon Creek 28 June 07
                   Flood Damage

Batter Stability

            Flood Damage

                           Road Surface

                  Flood Damage

Tamboritha Road
                  Coastal Erosion

                                    Seaspray steps

Seaspray Surf Lifesaving Club

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