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Montenegro_Flood_Drought

VIEWS: 22 PAGES: 36

									                              World Meteorological Organization




           Regional Programme on Disaster Risk Reduction in the South East Europe



Component 2 “Regional Cooperation in South Eastern Europe for meteorological, hydrological and
    climate data management and exchange to support Disaster Risk Reduction” project”




                                  National Assessment Report
                          of the national capacities, gaps and needs
                            in flood and drought risk assessments



                                        Montenegro




                                            Draft
                                         23/02/2011




                                       Vieri Tarchiani
                                    Consultant for WMO
1      Background ................................................................................................................................ 4
   1.1         The Programme .................................................................................................................... 4
   1.2 The methodological approach for the assessment of national capacities and needs in hazard
   mapping for floods and drought risk assessment ............................................................................. 5
       1.2.1 The workshops .................................................................................................................... 5
       1.2.2 The questionnaire ................................................................................................................ 6
       1.2.3 The country missions .......................................................................................................... 7
2. General overview of country’s economic sectors and their vulnerability to climatic risks . 8
   2.1         Review of the sectors in the country that are main drivers of the economy ........................ 9
       2.1.1 Institutional mapping of the sectors .................................................................................... 9
       2.1.2 Organizational decision-making diagram per sector, showing roles and responsibilities of
       different agencies in planning and budgeting processes. ............................................................. 9
       2.1.3 Sectoral analysis of the vulnerability to floods and droughts. ............................................ 9
3. Governance and Institutional Arrangements for drought and floods risk assessment .... 10
   3.1 Legal framework ...................................................................................................................... 10
   3.2 Institutional framework ............................................................................................................ 11
       3.2.1 List of agencies involved in drought and floods risk assessment ..................................... 11
       3.2.2 Sector for Emergency Management .................................................................................. 12
       3.2.3 HydroMeteorological Institute - HMI................................................................................ 12
       3.2.4 Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development .............................................................. 13
   3.3 Work-flow and Organizational decision-making diagram....................................................... 14
   3.4 Sources of funding ................................................................................................................... 15
   3.5 Strengths, gaps and needs for the improvement of the institutional framework ...................... 15
4 Assessment of national capacities and needs relating to drought/floods hazard mapping
for risk assessment ......................................................................................................................... 18
   4.1 National capacities for floods and drought hazard characterization and mapping .................. 18
       4.1.1 Hazard extension/severity data ......................................................................................... 18
       4.1.2 Hazard impact data............................................................................................................ 18
       4.1.3 Hazard mapping ................................................................................................................ 18
   4.2 Information needs from users relating to drought/floods hazard mapping for risk assessment
   ........................................................................................................................................................ 18
5 Assessment of national capacities and needs in providing useful information for floods
and drought hazard mapping......................................................................................................... 20
   5.1 Basic data collection and management .................................................................................... 20
       5.1.1 HMI .................................................................................................................................... 20
       5.1.2 Water Directorate .............................................................................................................. 21
       5.1.3 MARD............................................................................................................................... 21
       5.1.7 Strengths, gaps and needs in basic data collection and management ............................... 21
   5.2 Basic data analysis ................................................................................................................... 22
       5.2.1 HMI ................................................................................................................................... 22
       5.2.3 Strengths, gaps and needs in basic data analysis .............................................................. 23
   5.3 Information management and dissemination for drought and floods hazard mapping ............ 24
       5.3.2 HMI ................................................................................................................................... 25
       5.3.3 Strengths, gaps and needs in information management and dissemination for drought and
       floods hazard mapping ............................................................................................................... 25
   5.4 Cooperation and collaboration ................................................................................................. 25
       5.4.1 HMI ................................................................................................................................... 25
       5.4.2 Strengths, gaps and needs in cooperation and collaboration ............................................ 26
6 Needs priority................................................................................................................................ 27
   6.1 Hazard information production ................................................................................................ 29
   6.2 Case study ................................................................................................................................ 31
Annexes ............................................................................................................................................ 32
  Annex 1, Institutions’ operational roles ......................................................................................... 32
  Annex 2, Institutions’ profile ......................................................................................................... 33
  Annex 2, Institutions’ profile ......................................................................................................... 33
  Needs .............................................................................................................................................. 34
  Annex 3, List of key persons met during the country mission in Montenegro .............................. 36
1   BACKGROUND

1.1 The Programme
In 2007, the World Bank, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations
Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UN-ISDR) initiated the South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk
Mitigation and Adaptation Programme (SEEDRMAP), which is aiming at developing or
strengthening national capacities in this region along three components: (i) Disaster risk
management, institutional capacities and governance, (ii) HydroMeteorological Services, and (iii)
Financial risk transfer mechanisms, to assist countries in reducing risks associated with natural
hazards. Beneficiary countries of this initiative include Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria,
Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia,
Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), Slovenia and Turkey. During the first phase of the
project, fact finding surveys and desk-top studies were performed to obtain information needed for
the development of relevant projects, and the results of these analyses have been published in a
number of reports.1 Based on these results and consultations with countries, WMO and UNDP
developed, in parallel, two complementary proposals that were funded by the European
Commission (EC) Directorate General for Enlargement.2 These EC funded projects are targeting
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,
Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99) and Turkey and were initiated in
March 2009.
Overall Objective of UNDP proposal “Activity 1: Regional Programme on Disaster Risk Reduction
in South East Europe” (see Annex I for project proposal and Gant Chart):
 To reduce the risk of disasters associated with natural hazards in the Western Balkans and
    Turkey, in line with the Hyogo Framework for Action, by building the capacity of national and
    local authorities in promoting coordinated approach in disaster risk reduction. The specific
    objective is to increase the regional disaster risk reduction cooperation in South East Europe,
    and to promote the harmonization of their disaster risk reduction methodologies, plans, and
    strategies in order to pave the way for the eventual preparation of a harmonized and mutually
    accepted regional disaster risk reduction strategy.
Overall Objective of WMO proposal “Activity 2: Regional Cooperation in South Eastern Europe for
meteorological, hydrological and climate data management and exchange to support Disaster Risk
Reduction” project (see Annex II for project proposal and Gant Chart ):
 To reduce the vulnerability of South Eastern Europe to natural hazards, and address losses of
   life, property and economic productivity caused by weather extremes and other natural
   hazards. The specific objectives are two-folds:
   i)    improve basic systems for data sharing and hydrometeorological forecasting, that
           underpin early warning systems for weather and climate related hazards and
           extreme events;
   ii) improve the capacity (technical, human and institutional) of the National
           Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in SEE to acquire, assimilate,
           exchange and disseminate data and information on a range of
           hydrometeorological hazards and extreme weather and climate events as a
           basic first step towards an effective risk management involving risk assessment,
           risk reduction, risk transfer to reduce the impacts of natural hazards on lives and


1
  Risk Assessment for South Eastern Europe Desk Study Review, 2008; Strengthening the Hydro-meteorological
Services in South Eastern Europe, 2008; Mitigating the Adverse Financial Effects of Natural Hazards on the Economies
of South Eastern Europe, 2008; The structure, Role and Mandate of Civil Protection in Disaster Risk Reduction for
South Eastern Europe, 2008.
2
  Activity 1 :Building Capacity in Disaster Risk Reduction through Regional Cooperation and Collaboration in South
East Europe (UNDP); Activity 2: Regional Cooperation in South Eastern Europe for meteorological, hydrological and
climate date management and exchange to support Disaster Risk Reduction /WMO)
           livelihoods. This process will include all stakeholders with disaster risk reduction
           mandates and competencies.


Within this context, WMO and UNDP will closely leverage their activities in risk assessment
(Activity 2 of WMO project and Activity 5.2 of UNDP project). These activities will consist in:
1. The organization of two training workshops for the experts from the project countries on the
following subjects:
                Flood risk assessment
                Drought risk assessment
2. The assessments of the national capacities, related gaps and needs for development of flood
and drought risk assessments. Through the two training workshops, the participating national
experts will be enabled to conduct these detailed assessments back in their country with the
support of two consultants jointly hired by WMO and UNDP.
3. The development of comprehensive national proposals for the strengthening and
development of national capacities in flood and drought risk assessments. The two consultants
hired by WMO and UNDP will develop these national proposals based on the national
assessments and through missions in the countries.

1.2 The methodological approach for the assessment of national capacities and needs in
hazard mapping for floods and drought risk assessment
1.2.1 The workshops
The Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector (Southeastern
Europe) has been organized in Ljubljana, Slovenia, on 20-24 September 2010. Workshop specific
objectives were:
     To train the participants on drought data, databases and metadata, mapping and analysis
        tools, and effective drought risk assessment.
     To guide participants in the first steps towards developing an effective national drought risk
        management involving risk assessment, risk reduction, risk transfer to reduce the impacts of
        natural hazards on lives and livelihoods.
Indeed the workshop paved the road for the self-assessment of national capacities and needs in
drought risk assessment. The participants have been provided with the capacities and the tools to
conduct a self-assessment of their national system for drought risk assessment including
monitoring, data repository, mapping and analysis tools. This assessment will serve as a basis for
the preparation of a comprehensive project proposal on drought risk assessment to be developed
in collaboration with UNDP.
During the workshop, the first draft of the comprehensive questionnaire for the self-assessment
has been developed and during the Session 7: Conclusions and recommendations, the
questionnaire has been presented to the participants, describing the approach that will be used for
the follow-up.

The Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment has been organized in Istanbul, Turkey on 27
September -1 October 2010. Workshop specific objectives were:
        To train the participants on hydrological data, databases and metadata, and mapping
           and analysis tools to support flood risk assessment.
        To provide the participants with self-assessment capacities of their national system for
           flood risk assessment including monitoring, data repository, mapping and analysis tools.
As for the drought workshops, the participants have been provided with the capacities and the
tools to conduct a self-assessment of their national system for floods risk assessment including
monitoring, data repository, mapping and analysis tools. This assessment will serve as a basis for
the preparation of a comprehensive project proposal on floods risk assessment to be developed
with the support of the international consultant, and in collaboration with UNDP.
The draft of the comprehensive questionnaire for the self-assessment has been further developed
and presented during the Session 7: Conclusions and recommendations, to the participants,
describing the approach that will be used for the follow-up.


1.2.2 The questionnaire

The comprehensive questionnaire for the self-assessment of national capacities and needs has
been developed during the two workshops in Ljubljana and Istanbul, in collaboration with the
participants and WMO experts. It has been sent to the focal points of WMO and UNDP, who
ensure that each involved institution complete it and send to WMO.
The questionnaire is the basis for the self-assessment of national capacities in floods and drought
risk assessment including monitoring. The responses to the questions are critical to highlight
national capacities, gaps and needs in order to point out which aspects should be strengthened by
a regional programme.
The self-assessment questionnaire is composed by 2 sections (Sections A and B). Section A to be
completed by the team together and The Section B to be completed by each institution or division
within institutions involved in drought or floods risk assessment including monitoring. At least, for
each country the following institutions participate in the self-assessment:
             a. Meteorological Services
             b. Hydrological Services
             c. Agriculture Services
             d. Water Management Services
             e. Disaster Risk Reduction/Management Services
A particular emphasis has been given to the needs of national institutions, because they will be the
basis for the proposal of future activities for strengthening the risk assessment capacities in the
region. A clear expression of users needs is the best starting point for the identification of such
capacity building programmes.

The answers to the questionnaire have been revised (if they have been provided before the
country missions). If there was the need, demands for clarification and/or integration have been
sent to the concerned institutions. When the answers have been received in time, a country
synthesis has been prepared, harmonizing the answers and highlighting the specific needs. The
synthesis has been sent to the national focal points and it was the basis for the discussion during
the country missions. Otherwise the questionnaire has been completed during the country
missions.
During the country missions, the country synthesis has been discussed and national priorities
identified in order to have a harmonized and coherent overview of specific actions to be
undertaken for strengthening the national capacity of floods and drought hazard mapping for risk
assessment.

Montenegro involved institutions in the self-assessment have been:

      Hydrological and Meteorological Institute (HMI)
      Sector for Emergency Management (SEM)
      Water Directorate (WD)
      Ministry Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD)

Under the coordination of WMO focal point, Ms Mirjana IVANOV a joint answer to the
questionnaire has been developed and sent to WMO and international consultant on 28 February
2011. The answers were very exhaustive.

Quest. chapter      SEM                  HMI                   WD                 MARD
1                                                          X
2                                                          X
3                    X                   X                   X                   X
4                    X                   X
5                    X                   X
6                    X                   X
7                    X                   X
8                    X                   X
9                    X                   Not concerned
10                   X                   X


1.2.3 The country missions


Country missions have been organized on a 2 days stay. On the basis of the national self-
assessments, the draft of the country report, the country missions will be organized in the project
countries to:
     -   review and complete as required the national assessments together with the national
         assessment teams,
     -   consult and agree with the national assessment teams on the priorities, and
     -   develop a project proposal per EC DG enlargement standards, which would be funded in
         the next phase of the project.

The mission in Montenegro has been performed between 2 and 4 March 2011 with the following
Agenda:

Tuesday 1 March evening               Arrival
Wednesday 2 March                     Meeting at HMI
                                      WMO: Mr Vieri Tarchiani
Morning                               HMI: Mr Luka Mitrovic, Ms Mirjana IVANOV, Ms Ivana
                                      Pavicevic

Afternoon                             Joint Meeting
                                      WMO: Mr Vieri Tarchiani
                                      HMI: Ms Mirjana IVANOV, Ms Ivana Pavicevic
                                      SES: Ms Denisa Nurkovic
                                      MARD: Mr Gavro Kaludjerovic
                                      WD: Ms Ivana Bajkovic
                                      UNDP: Ms Dragana Cenic

Thursday 3 March                      Joint Meeting
                                      Meeting at HMI
Morning                               WMO: Mr Vieri Tarchiani
                                      HMI: Ms Mirjana IVANOV, Ms Ivana Pavicevic,
                                      MARD: Mr Gavro Kaludjerovic

Afternoon                             Follow-up

Friday 4 March                        Departure from Podgorica
2. GENERAL OVERVIEW OF COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC SECTORS AND THEIR
VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATIC RISKS

Agriculture, tourism, industry and services are the top earners and priorities for economic
development in Montenegro, with services and tourism carrying 49.6% and 20% of the GDP
respectively. The energy sector is also essential for sustainable development but the challenges
faced in Montenegro’s energy sector are low efficiency, high losses in transmission/distribution
systems, unfavorable consumption structures leading to high dependency on imports, minimal use
of its own natural energy resources, etc. Natural and technological hazards including earthquakes,
floods, landslides, forest fires and industrial incidents represent a considerable threat to the
Republic of Montenegro. The recent urban sprawl and the industrial growth of the country have
exposed an increasing number of people as well as infrastructure to the potential consequences of
these hazards3.

In 2008, the gross domestic product amounted to 3.09 billion Euros, i.e. 4.908 Euros per capita.
For
the same year, the service sector’s share in GDP was 77.2%,the contribution of agriculture and
industry (with mining) to the gross domestic product amounted to 9.3% and 13.5%, respectively.
The electric power generation, mining, and metal processing make up approximately 70% of
industrial production4.

Energy
In 2008, the total primary energy consumption amounted to 47.26 PJ, i.e. approximately 1,800 kg
of oil equivalent per capita. During the period 1997 – 2008, an average annual growth rate of
primary energy consumption was 3.1%. Over the last ten years, the degree of energy self-
sufficiency varied between 44% and 58%.

Industry and Mining
The processing industry share in GDP has recently varied between approximately 10% in 2005
and 7% in 2008. The contribution of mining during the same period was under 2%.

Transport
During the period 2005 – 2008, the share of transport (including the storage and communication) in
GDP approximately amounted to 11–12%.

Tourism
Tourism is a significant branch of economy which is regarded as one of the key development
priorities.
The number of tourists almost doubled during the period 2003 – 2007 (from approximately 0.6 to
1.1 million), while the number of overnight stays, during the same period, went up for more than
80%. In 2008, the country was visited by approximately 1.2 million tourists, with 7.8 million
overnights. The visits/overnights realized in the coastal region prevail in the total tourism turnover

Agriculture
The share of primary agricultural production in GDP for the period 2005 – 2008 remained on the
level of approximately 9 % to 10%. The agricultural land structure is predominated by pastures and
meadows (approximately 87%), whereas arable land and gardens make up less than 10% of the
total agricultural land. Animal husbandry is the most important branch of agriculture, with a share of
60% in the total new value. During the period 1992 – 2004, a relatively stable number of heads
was registered in the cattle and hog breeding, while the number of sheep and horses evidently
went down.
During the 1990s, the poultry numbers slightly went down, whereas a positive trend of growth has
been recorded since 2000.

3
    Igor Djuric, IPA Beneficiary National Needs Assessment: Montenegro. WMO – UNDP, 2010.
4
    First National Communication to the UNFCCC.
2.1 Review of the sectors in the country that are main drivers of the economy
2.1.1 Institutional mapping of the sectors

Energy within Ministry of Economy

Industry and Mining within Ministry of Economy

Transport within Ministry of Transport and Maritime Affairs
                 Directorate of Transport

Tourism within Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism

Agriculture within Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

2.1.2 Organizational decision-making diagram per sector, showing roles and responsibilities of
different agencies in planning and budgeting processes.

On state level, the budget is planned by Ministries and other administrative bodies, but adopted on
annual level by the Ministry of Finance.

2.1.3 Sectoral analysis of the vulnerability to floods and droughts.

Heavy rain is very common and often results in flash floods, landslides and rock falls which are
potentially very damaging for settlements and public infrastructure, especially the 7,000 km road
network, much of which is located in mountain areas. Forest fires are even more frequent and
widespread, especially in the rural coastline areas and in the central region. Marked increases in
losses from property damage and lost revenue due to business interruption caused by extreme
weather events translate into the increased volatility of earnings in the sectors exposed to weather.
These include utilities, tourism, agriculture, transportation, aviation and forestry. And this in turn,
means a higher cost of capital for businesses operating in the region. Besides the direct costs
associated with physical damage, natural disasters typically lead to a worsening of the fiscal
position, as governments pay for reconstruction and sources of revenue are disrupted. Therefore,
the total impact on the budget widely exceeds the direct costs of relief and reconstruction from
natural disasters5.

There are two most vulnerable areas to floods areas in Montenegro. The first is area of Skadar-
lake basin with tributaries and Bojana river. The second is the upper flow of Lim (and also Tara)
and confluent streams with torrential character.
Vulnerability to droughts is manifested primarily in the southern part of the country, also because of
the karstic terrain.

Vulnerability by Sectors to floods and droughts has not yet been fully analyzed in Montenegro till
now. The effects of climate changes and the vulnerability of several sensitive sectors (water
resources, coastal areas, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity and public health ) were analyzed within
the First NATIONAL COMMUNICATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE OF MONTENEGRO.




5
    Igor Djuric, IPA Beneficiary National Needs Assessment: Montenegro. WMO – UNDP, 2010.
3. GOVERNANCE AND INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS FOR DROUGHT AND FLOODS
RISK ASSESSMENT

3.1 Legal framework

The legal frameworks that support drought/floods risk assessment in Montenegro is based on the
National Strategy for Emergency Situations, adopted by the Government of Montenegro in
December 2006. The National Strategy analyses all the risks affecting the territory of Montenegro,
providing a survey on the actual capacity of the Montenegrin structures to cope with them. The
survey highlights the operational capabilities of Montenegro with reference to the major risks on its
territory, emphasizing the importance of constant monitoring of the hazards and the need for an
integrated approach to disaster risk reduction. The following lows constitute the specific legal
frameworks:
 The Low on protection and rescue (Official Gazette of Republic of Montenegro no 13/2007)
      The Low on water
      The Low on hydrometeorological activity (Off.gazz. RM, no. 26/10).
      Law on Hydrographic services

The Law on protection and rescue prescribes a set of measures and activities, which are
undertaken in order to prevent danger of natural disasters, technological accidents and other
disasters. In order to effectively protect the population and the material heritage against possible
disasters and preventing the spreading of risk, the law prescribes to conduct activities related to
collection and processing of data on possible risks, establish information and early warning
systems. The law mandates that these preventive activities include assessment of vulnerabilities
(defined as “a qualitative and quantitative analysis of data on the possible hazards of the
occurrence of natural disasters” “with predictions of their possible future course and
consequences, the proposal of the level of protection against risk and proposal of preventive and
other measures for protection and rescue” ) as well as development of plans for protection and
rescue, spatial development and building buildings, establishment of a protection and rescue
system and provision of material resources, personnel and other resources necessary to carry out
the planned activities. The Law enables the overall adequate functioning and gives to
municipalities competencies to act in cases of disasters. Pursuant to Article 34 of the Law on
Protection and Rescue, the Ministry adopted two documents; the Rulebook on the Methodology for
the Development of Threat Assessment Studies of Natural, Technical-technological and Other
Disasters and the Rulebook on Methodology for the Development of Protection and Rescue Plans.
The Rulebook on the Methodology for the Development of Threat Assessment Studies delegates
responsibility to the Sector for Emergency Management (Ministry of Interior Affairs) and other
Ministries for threat assessments for the territory of Montenegro; to the local governments in
coordination with the Sector for Emergency Management (Sector EM) for the vulnerability
assessment of municipalities and in the case of the private sector, to companies with more than
ten employees, again in coordination with the Sector EM. The threat assessment will include an
assessment of hazards or causes that may lead to the occurrence of disasters and the
consequences that may arise for people, material and cultural goods and the environment;
determining the appropriate organization of protection and rescue in order to prevent the
occurrence of disasters or for purposes of rescue of people; and an assessment of needs and
possibilities in the provision of human and material potentials necessary for achieving the
estimated protection and rescue organization.6
The law provides that the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Public Administration, Sector for
Emergency Management coordinates the development of National Plans of Protection and
Rescue. The National plan for protection of extreme meteorological occurrences and the National
plan for flood protection are in course of drafting.


6
    Rulebook on the Methodology for the Development of Threat Assessment Studies, Official Gazette of Montenegro 41/08, Artcle 3
The Law on water defines the obligation of preparation of a General plan for protection from
harmful effects of water. The current plan covers the period 2010-2016. It especially contains:
works and measures which are undertaken preventively and in the period of high waters for
protection from floods and erosion; method of institutional organization of defense; duties and
responsibilities of the manager for protection; method for monitoring and recording data; method
for early warning. The law foresees the preparation also of a yearly Operational Plan for the
Protection of the harmful effects of water. At national level it should be prepared by the Water
Department and the Ministry, while at local level it should be prepared by competent local
authority, with the approval of the Ministry.
The Operational Plans determine the names of managers of protection against the harmful effects
of water, headquarters, bodies and names of companies and other entities that conduct legal
protection against the harmful effects of water and means for operational implementation of
protection.

The overall protection plan, provides that in case a major flood hazards (declaration of the fourth
degree of danger of flooding), the management of protection and rescue of people, material and
cultural goods is to be ensured by a Coordination Team for Emergency Management situations. In
this case, further action regarding the protection and rescue operations are undertaken regulated
by the National Plan for the Protection and Rescue of Flood, prepared by the Ministry of Internal
Affairs and Public Administration, in accordance with the Law on Protection and Rescue. Ministry
of Internal Affairs, through Department for Emergency situation and civil security coordinated the
work of all segments of the system of protection and rescue, which are: Ministries, Police
Directorate, other state bodies, Montenegrin Military, economic society, operative units for
protection and rescue, Agency for environmental protection, Hydrometeorological Institute and
Center for Eco-toxicological Researches.


The Law of Hydrometeorological services in Montenegro has been recently approved. It states that
the Hydrometeorological Institute of Montenegro has duty to:
    Produce nonscheduled meteorological and hydrological information and warnings in
      situation before atmospheric and hydrospheric elementary disaster (emergency situation).
    Organize emergency observation and measurement of the hydrological stations profiles and
      emergency information shall be submitted
      Monitor weather and waters;
      Collect and analyze data;
      Prepare forecast;
      Inform and alert responsible agencies.


The National Action Plan for the implementation of the National Strategy for Emergency Situations
is in the process of development.


3.2 Institutional framework

3.2.1 List of agencies involved in drought and floods risk assessment

The agencies that are responsible for management and implementation of different components of
drought/floods risk assessment including monitoring and procedures are:
            Sector for Emergency Management (Sector EM), Department for Emergency
               Situations and civil security under the Ministry of Interior Affairs and Public
               Administration;
              HydroMeteorological Institute (HMI), under the Ministry of Sustainable Development
               and Tourism
               Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management
               Directorate of Water, under the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water
                Management
               Local Authorities – Secretariats involved in water management

The Sector for EM with the participation of other relevant institutions is currently working on the
establishment of a National Platform for DRR.

3.2.2 Sector for Emergency Management

The Sector for Emergency Management (SEM) is situated within the Department for Emergency
Situations and Civil Security under the Ministry of Interior Affairs and Public Administration.
Based on the Law on protection and rescue, Department for Emergency Situations and Civil
Security has obligation, in sense of preventive, operational activities of elimination of
consequences. Also SEM obligation is to develop vulnerability assessment, plans for protection
and rescue, establish and coordinating the system for protection and rescue (including the 112
center) and provide material means and other resources for conducting of planned activities. The
duties of the Department include also risk and vulnerability assessment and planning for
emergency responses. The process of risk assessment for drought and floods is performed by the
Department for Risk Management. It is also responsible for the management of the national
database of the risks as reported by the National Strategy for Emergency Situations. The duties of
the Department encompass the drafting and development of strategic documents and plans at
national or inter-municipal levels, cooperation with scientific bodies (universities), laboratories and
other research institutions. As indicated by the National Strategy for Emergency Situations, line
ministries and relevant agencies are involved in the preparation of specific plans, participating in
the ad-hoc working groups and are responsible for providing specific data and analysis to the
department of Risk Assessment.
The System of Emergency management relies also on Operational Units: Municipal services for
protection and rescue, units for civil protection, units for protection and rescue of economic
societies and other legal persons, aeronautic-helicopter unit, as well as voluntary units for
protection and rescue.


3.2.3 HydroMeteorological Institute - HMI
The HydroMeteorological Institute of Montenegro is under the Ministry of Tourism and Sustainable
Development (previously was under the Ministry for Environment and Spatial Planning). According to the law
on Hydrometeorological activity, HMI have mandate for the following activities
      monitoring weather and waters;
      collecting and analyzing data;
      preparing forecasts;
      informing and alerting responsible agencies.

HMI has also the duty to produce nonscheduled meteorological and hydrological information and
warnings in situation of hydrometeorological disaster (emergency situation).

The Departments of HMI involved in drought/floods risk assessment including monitoring are:
      Hydrology Sector:
            o   Department for hydrological station network,
            o   Department for water balance
      Sector for meteorological observing
            o   Department for meteorological station network
      Sector for applied meteorology
           o   Department for weather monitoring and forecasting
      Department of Hydrometeorological Information System




Figure 1, Decision making diagram, showing roles and responsibilities of different
departments of HMI

3.2.4 Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (previously named Ministry of Agriculture
Forestry and Water Management) still has in its mandate, besides agriculture, the Water
Management.
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has the obligation of preparing the General
Plan for protection from harmful effects of water each 6 years and the yearly Operational Plan.
Within the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development the Water Directorate is an organizational
body dealing with Water Management. Water Directorate is responsible for planning and
implementation of protection measures and infrastructures. WD is charged to prepare plans of
water management for each river basin on the basis of floods risk assessment. According to the
law on water the WD is responsible for the implementation of the EU Framework Directive on
Water and the Directive for Floods Protection. In this context WD should prepare the Preliminary
Flood Risk Assessment by 2011.
Full employment in the administration of directorate is 8 people, including 3 engineers. The
technical capacity of the Directorate is actually quite low. WD activities are carried out principally
on project basis using external resources.
3.3 Work-flow and Organizational decision-making diagram


The process of drought/floods risk assessment at national level in Montenegro is organized upon
different fields of activity and different administrative levels.
Concerning floods, the legal framework attribute to:
      SEM the duty to perform flood risk assessment for planning Emergency management
      Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development the duty to perform floods risk assessment
        for planning protection against the harmful effects of water
      WD the duty to prepare Plans for water management of each river basin, including relative
        flood risk assessments (and the preliminary flood risk assessment according to the EC
        Directive for floods protection).
      Local authorities the duty to perform flood risk assessment for disaster prevention and for
        local spatial planning.
No one of these four levels is actually fully operational according to international standards of Risk
Assessment. Only WD performed ad-hoc floods risk analysis for some segment of rivers on project
basis using external technical resources.

Concerning drought, as per the law on protection and rescue, drought risk assessment is included
in the meteorological extreme event risk assessment for planning emergency management. But as
well as for floods, drought risk assessment is not implemented yet at SEM as required in DRR.
HMI, even if in its mandate drought risk assessment is not clearly expressed, is approaching the
issue (on project basis: DMC-SEE and EWCM Projects).

SEM is responsible for the production of the National plan for protection of extreme meteorological
occurrences and the National plan for flood protection. In order to produce this plans SEM
coordinates working groups composed by experts representing involved line ministries. Line
ministries provide specific data and analysis for the analysis of threats and risk related to specific
hazards as indicated by the Rulebook on the Methodology for the Development of Threat
Assessment Studies. These studies are not supported by spatial analysis on historical time series
of data on hazards and impacts, rather they are qualitative evaluation of the threat. Thus they
cannot be considered Risk Assessment as internationally recognized.

Currently the role of HMI is to provide basic statistics and analyses of extremes and climate
variability to be used for strategical planning of DRR. HMI provides such information to SEM and
also to Water Directorate. Flood risk assessment and analysis is still not implemented in HMI,
while the drought risk assessment and analysis is actually supported within the project DMCSEE.

The Water Directorate is responsible for the planning of preventive works and measures to protect
against the harmful effects of water. WD should ensure the identification of areas for which there
is a risk of flooding, the production of maps of flood zones and their integration into the physical
planning, the development of a Water Information Systems, the design, the construction and
routine maintenance of facilities for protection against the harmful effects of water.
Operationally the WD operated some studies on project basis assigning the technical work to
external service providers because they didn’t have yet strong technical capacity. But at list the IT
component, including databases and GIS, would be managed in-house.

MARD is currently not involved in any activity aiming to analyze drought or to assess drought
impacts on Montenegrin agriculture. The approach of MARD seems to be simply pushing toward
irrigation for risk reduction in general.
                                                                           WMA
                                                                           (WD)
                                                                    Hydrological analysis,
                  NHMS                                            Floods mapping (planned)
                  (HMI)                            AD
                                                                                                                   Plans f or water
                                                   (MARD)                                                           Management
           QA Historical data
           Statistical analysis                    Flood Risk Assessment                                          Preliminary Floods
                                                                                                                         Risk
        Hazard mapping (drought)                                                                                     Assessment
                Services                                                                                               (EC-DFP)




                                                          DRMA                                General Plan
                                                          (SEM)                                against the
                                                                                                   harmf ul
                                                                                             ef f ects of water
                                                Hazard data management
                                                       (planned)
                                                Hazard mapping (planned)
                                                 Coordination of working
           Local governments                           groups for

         Floods risk assessment                 Floods Risk Assessment and
                                                   Meteorological Extreme
                                                  Events Risk Assessment

                                                                                   DRMA = Disaster Risk Management Agency
                                                                                   NHMS = National Hydro-Meteorological Service
              Spatial planning                      National Emergency             AD = Agricultural Development Agency
               Local disaster                               Plans                  WMA = Water Management Agency
              prevention plans                                                     EPA = Energy Production Agency

Figure 2, Work flow




3.4 Sources of funding

Protection and rescue is funded from the budget of Montenegro, municipal budgets, voluntary
contributions, international assistance, funds of business organizations, other legal persons and
entrepreneurs and other sources.7 As the Sector EM does not have its own budget, it is financed
from the budget of the Ministry of Interior; however, there are no budget allocation mechanisms to
earmark funding for DRR.
For current activities, including monitoring, the HMI is funded from state budget, but there are not
specific budget for issues related to drought or flood risk assessment.

According to the Law on Financing Water Management (Official Gazette of Montenegro, No. 65/08)
works to protect against the harmful effects of water, preparation of project documentation and
construction of facilities for protection against harmful effects of water are financed through specific
funds for water resource management. Funding resources for operational implementation of
protection from the harmful effects of water are determined by the yearly Operational Plan.

3.5 Strengths, gaps and needs for the improvement of the institutional framework

While floods are recognized as a disaster threatening the security of goods and people, in
Montenegro as in many other countries of the region, drought is not really considered a disaster
but only an extreme weather event. Even the MARD doesn’t consider drought as a real threat to
agriculture or at least it has found in irrigation the solution and proposes it as the major adaptation
strategy to drought, but without any analysis on drought prone areas or on agricultural vulnerability

7
    Law on Protection and Rescue, Article 116
to drought. Even for strategic productions as wine and fruits, in the southern part of Montenegro,
the most affected by drought, any drought analysis has been done or requested by MARD.
Insurances on crop production, that in other countries like Serbia are fostering the involvement of
NHMS in DRR, are in an embryonal stage in Montenegro. MARD doesn’t have yet any agreement
with insurance companies. Some private contracts have been done for large farms, but HMI has
been only sporadically requested to provide data in order to verify the intensity of the
meteorological events.

Main actors reveal a chronic lack of technical personnel, which hampered the development of new
working branches or even of institutional obligations. Moreover among technical personnel the
knowledge of English is quite low, hampering their participation in international capacity building
activities.

                                   HMI                                                                SEM
                                                                                                     Risk
         Core Capacities                       Services                               Hazard mapping Assessment         Planning
Historical      Historical                         Hazard data &
meteorological hydrological          Remote        metadata                           Hazard data &
data            data                 sensed data   (drought)                          metadata
                                                   Hazard data
Data              Data               Data          management                         Hazard data
management        management         management (drought)                             management

Analysis tools    Analysis tools     Analysis tools   Hazard analysis                 Hazard analysis
                                                      Hazard
Data/indices      Data/indices       Data/indices     mapping
mapping           mapping            mapping          (drought)
                                                      Technical
                                                      advise
                                                                                                        DRMA = Disaster Risk Management
                                                                                                        Agency
                                                                                                        NHMS = National Hydro-
                      MARD                                 WD                                           Meteorological Service
Hazard data &     Floods Risk                         Hazard data &     Risk                            AD = Agricultural Development Agency
metadata          Assessment         Planning         metadata          Assessment                      WMA = Water Management Agency
                                                                        Planning                        EPA = Energy Production Agency
Hazard data                                           Hazard data       (Water
management                                            management        management)                     In red: not completely operational

Hazard analysis                                       Hazard analysis
                                                      Hazard
Hazard mapping                                        mapping

Figure 3, operational linkages


At national level, the institutional framework of drought/floods risk assessment is anyway in the
process to be defined, even if it could be strengthened making better connection among various
institutions, which are responsible for specific components of flood and drought risk assessment
and management. Moreover some overlaps of competencies still exist, for example concerning
floods between SEM and Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in planning for floods
protection. In other cases, roles and responsibilities are becoming clearer, for example the role of
HMI is to provide basic statistics and analyses of extremes and climate variability to be used for
strategy planning of DRR. HMI is included in National team for risk assessment formed on the
state level and coordinated by SEM.
Nevertheless, from an operational point of view, the process needs to be improved strengthening
the analytical capacities of different actors, by introducing modern technologies of analysis, such
as numerical modeling and GIS. Also the availability of data for the analysis should be improved
through strengthening the observation network (density, automatisation, and communication),
improving the quality of databases (QC, software, data rescue) and the interoperability of different
sources of data.
All the actors convene also that there is a need of standardized and specific methodologies for risk
analysis and assessment according to the different types of event.
Cooperation between Institutions should also be improved in the sense of data and information
exchange and better organization of multidisciplinary meetings and working groups.
4 ASSESSMENT OF NATIONAL CAPACITIES AND NEEDS RELATING TO
DROUGHT/FLOODS HAZARD MAPPING FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

4.1 National capacities for floods and drought hazard characterization and mapping

4.1.1 Hazard extension/severity data
In Montenegro any inventory nor list or database of past floods or drought exist, some information
on flood extent exist for the floods of 2009/10 at WD. Concerning droughts, some information is
available from 2000, but it is not organized.

HMI collects hydrological data on flood events, which could be useful for hazard mapping,
particularly water levels and discharges. Such data are collected using standard protocols for
hydrological data, but any other specific protocols for hazard data collection or management are
used. Such data are managed within the WISKI database and any specific database exists for
floods events. These data are not currently used for performing analysis such as frequency
analysis, times of return or hazard mapping.
HMI does not keep any separate hazards statistics, but statistics for high wind, heavy precipitation
and extreme temperatures can be produced for each synoptic observation station.
HMI collects phenological data, which are actually stored in excel for a time series of about 10
years. Phenological stations are quite representative of the main agricultural areas of the country.


4.1.2 Hazard impact data
Generally, the practice seems to be that relevant organizations collect data pertaining to their
organization and hazards that impact them. Unfortunately no formal mechanisms have been
developed for collecting, storing and accessing this data, which is currently scattered around
different institutions acting at different levels.
HMI, WD and SEM don’t collect impact data. SEM has an inventory of information about some
past flood, but the data are not organized nor harmonized. MARD collects through the extension
services some data on damages caused by floods at Municipal level. These surveys are performed
when farmers claim for indemnities to the Municipalities. But this information is not organized and
refers only to samples and not exhaustive inventories. Any drought impact data is collected by
MARD.
Concerning floods, local commissions make damages assessment after the floods. The
information about damages exists in form of reports for the floods occurred in 2009/10, but for the
previous years probably not.

4.1.3 Hazard mapping
Generally, floods hazard mapping is not done except for specific project, and generally by
specialized companies or service providers (for floods in some segment of rivers). Exceptionally for
the inundation of 2009/10 WD is preparing some maps of flooded areas. Also concerning drought,
drought hazard maps for the whole Montenegro have not been produced.


4.2 Information needs from users relating to drought/floods hazard mapping for risk
assessment


Drought and floods hazard maps don’t exist in Montenegro, except for specific areas done on
project basis. Regarding hazard maps most of the achievements are in the field of seismic
hazards. There is a crucial need of this information, as well as of vulnerability, for risk analysis on
spatial basis. Main gaps consist in a lack of connection among various institutions, which are
responsible for specific components of floods or drought risk assessment, but also the lack of
specific capacities within the organizations.

SEM receive information about droughts and floods by HMI contributing to the risk analysis
preliminary to the preparation of National plans for emergency management, but SEM doesn’t
request specific floods hazard maps or drought hazard maps.

Up to now HMI has not provided operational risk analysis or mapping. It is involved in projects like
DMC-SEE and EWCM which include also a risk assessment component, but they are ongoing and
HMI doesn’t have yet the competencies and the capacities. In order to strengthen the role of HMI
in hazard drought and floods hazard mapping, there is the need of clearly defined frameworks of
collaboration including the adoption and usage of protocols for hazard data collection,
management and analysis.

WD and SEM need geographic information about hazard but also the capacities to manage and
analyze such geographic data.

There is extensive belief expressed by the stakeholders that a standardized methodology for
impacts/damages assessment is needed. Thus, the establishment of a database or at list a meta-
database of impact data per hazard is crucial in order to facilitate data access.
5 ASSESSMENT OF NATIONAL CAPACITIES AND NEEDS IN PROVIDING USEFUL
INFORMATION FOR FLOODS AND DROUGHT HAZARD MAPPING

5.1 Basic data collection and management


                                               SEM        HMI        WD          MARD
Does your institution have a data catalogue? No           No         No          No
Does your institution utilize remote sensed    No         No         No          No
data?
Does your institution utilize geographical     No         Yes        No          No
data?
Does your institution utilize weather and      Yes        Yes        Yes         Yes
climate data?
Does your institution utilize meteorological   Yes        Yes        Yes         Yes
short-medium term forecasts?

5.1.1 HMI


Data and network
HMI collects hydrological, meteorological, oceanographic, air quality and water quality data from its
official national networks. Concerning floods and drought risk, main data collected by HMI are:
     rainfall,
     air temperature,
     pressure,
     wind (speed and direction),
     relative humidity
     water level,
     water discharge,
     water temperature, and other meteorological parameters:
HMI Network is composed by:
      Hydrological network consisting of 51 stations (31 in Black Sea basin and 20 in Adriatic sea
       basin), of which 35 are automatic stations, and the others are limnigraphs.
      Meteorological network consist of 8 main, 2 air, 18 climatological and 65 rainfall stations. 8
       main and 2 climatological are automatic stations.


Data collection process
Data from automatic weather stations are available in the center of Podgorica every 10-min on our
servers and on web-page. Data from hydrological automatic stations are collected in the centre
once per day, and they are available on web-pages
Data from other hydrological and meteorological stations are measured with classical instruments.
For hydrological parameters water stage from limnigraphs and discharges are available with some
time delay.
Data from meteorological stations: depending of type of stations measurements are taken every
hour on main and air stations and climatological measurements are taken three times per day (07,
14, and 21) and every 10 minutes from automatic stations. These data are available with time
delay.


Quality control and validation
   The process of quality control is organized on three levels:
       1. On first level observers make an evaluation of measurements quality.
       2. On second level meteorological technicians make logical consistency of data from
          paper documentation.
       3. On third level Quality Control procedures and validation are performed within the
          database, i.e. CLIDATA for meteorological data and WISKI for hydrological.


Data management and dissemination
Hydrological data are managed through the Wiski database and meteorological data through
Clidata, both working on Oracle platform.
Information about data (metadata) is scarce, nevertheless station documentation about
geographical location (lat, lon, alt), observation practices and data about instruments are available
in digital format. Archive of meteorological and limnigraph charts are in paper form.
Near real-time data are available on web-pages, and historical data are available only on demand.
There is no direct access to databases.
Data providing services to other entities are ensured through the Web, e-mailing and reports.
According to international obligation for data exchange HMI shares in GTS data from 4 stations.
HMI provides also data to meteorological services for aviation and maritime navigation.
Furthermore HMI provides data to neighboring countries (Serbia, FYROM, Croatia, and Republic of
Srpska) with specific MoUs (in preparation phase for Slovenia, Bosnia and Turkey). Hydrological
data are provided to the ICPDR and the Sava Commission.

The HMI receives from ECMWF the boundary conditions data for weather numerical models.
Recently, forecast quality and monitoring are improved by new satellite weather station. In the
period from 5 -7 October 2010 a Satellite weather station MSG 2nd generation DAWBEE has
been installed drawn from the EU grant through the IPA Disaster Risk Reduction project conducted
by WMO and UNDP.
The first meteorological images have been received 7 October 2010 from METEOSAT
(geostationary at an altitude of 38.000 km and three polar orbits at an altitude around 850km).

5.1.2 Water Directorate
WD receives from HMI hydrological data and data on water quality. Geomorphologic and land-
cover data, information about users of water resources, cadastral base maps (1:5000), digital
topographic maps (1:25.000), infrastructure maps and population density maps are also available
(at least, if not at WD, there is the possibility to obtain them).

5.1.3 MARD
MARD is involved in agriculture surveys, but doesn’t manage the data processing or the
databases. The MonStat (Institute of Statistics of Montenegro) manages the data and produces the
yearbooks. Data are organized per crop category (fruit, industrial, vegetables, etc.) and per
municipality. Available data are:
    Indexes of crop production
    Number of fields
    Surfaces by way of use
MARD is planning to prepare a Farm Register.

5.1.7 Strengths, gaps and needs in basic data collection and management
For HMI, it is critical to urgently upgrade and modernize the national hydrometeorological
observation network, and to provide sustainable organizational, human and technical resources to
maintain and operate it.
Concerning data consistency, the historical time series of hydrological data are not complete, for
some years data doesn’t exist because they have not been collected. HMI doesn’t have any
instrument for measuring ET.
There are accessing the databases within HMI for hydrometeorological experts and the staff
engaged for the data base still prefer to keep the data and usage of database under their control,
making some products by themselves instead of to focusing their activities on data quality,
homogenization and maintaining.
For WD the main gap is that it has not the capacities to manage data received from HMI or other
institutions because of the lack of modern system of data processing, storage, and use for
analysis.

The HMI needs in terms of human capacities and infrastructure for strengthening the data
collection and management in drought/floods risk assessment that are not yet planned to be met
by national budget or other cooperation projects are:
1. Hydrological automatic stations to complete hydrological network for monitoring system: 15 on-
    line stations. OTT data logger with sensors for water stage and water temperature (or OTT
    Thalimedes)
2. Equipping hydrological stations for better measurement of flow at high water: 2 RiverCat
   Systems- ADCP RiverCAT complete with catamaran 20 OTT cable-way
3. Additional trainings for usage of hydrological database WISKI
4. Additional trainings for usage of meteorological database CLIDATA


5.2 Basic data analysis

5.2.1 HMI

Tools and methodologies
Based on available hydrological and meteorological data HMI produces statistical analysis on
frequency and probability.
HMI has adequate tools for statistical analysis (Statistica, StartGraphics, Climdex), interpolation
(Surfer), hydrological analysis (Hydras 3, Hyprom) and geographical and geomatics (Geomedia,
Autocad, ArcView).
Drought indices, risk mapping, analysis and early warning products are in preparation phase within
the project DMCSEE. It is planned to make SPI available on a near real-time basis to relevant
users in participating countries and broader SEE region.
Concerning hydrological modeling, through project Adricosm Star some tools for the understanding
and simulation of the state of surface and underground waters have been developed, as
hydrological forecasting model HYPROM (based on MIKE11), which has been implemented in
Skadar lake basin. But this model still is not completely operative.

The weather forecasting is based on the use of global NWP models using boundary conditions
taken from the ECMWF (EU) and GFS (USA) global models.
HMI runs the following numerical weather prediction models to produce +96 h forecasts,

            1. WRF model, 00-96h dx=dy=0.04 deg, dt=15sec
            2. WRF NMM model, 00-96h, dx=dy=0.04deg, dt=15sec
            3. ETA 22 model (NCEP-NOAA):
                  a. Worketa-Slop model , 00-96h, dx=dy=0.16deg, dt=60sec
                  b. Worketa-Slop model, 00-72h, dx=dy=0.25deg, dt=100sec
                  c. Worketa-Slop model, 00-72h, dx=dy=0.1deg, dt=30sec
The numerical weather model runs are operated by a private Serbian meteorological consulting
company SEWA.

HMI doesn’t uses or provides seasonal or monthly climate forecasts.

5.2.2 WD
WD has some technical capacity in terms of hydrological analysis and mapping, but they are not
really exploited as the technical work is usually done by external service providers. They lack
completely of tools for analysis and GIS.


5.2.3 Strengths, gaps and needs in basic data analysis
In drought analysis main strengths for HMI are the participation in DMC-SEE and the EWCM
(Extreme Weather Conditions in Montenegro) projects. DMC-SEE activities in the framework of
WP 3 on Drought Risk Assessment during 2011 will be:
    1. Finalisation of drought impact data collection (from all the available sources)
    2. Analysis of meteorological data for producing drought indexes (dry spells and SPI)
    3. Comparison of drought indexes with hydrological data
    4. Comparison of drought indexes with impact data

EWCM is a national project financed by the government. The project aims to:
   1. determine criteria for the definition of weather related disasters in Montenegro and map the
       areas where certain types of disasters occur in order to determine the vulnerability level
       and assess possible damages of such disasters,
   2. provide reliable forecasting and warnings of dangerous meteorological situations and timely
       inform the relevant parties,
   3. reduce damages of extreme meteorological occurrences, both locally and regionally,
       according to the character of the disaster is done in two directions: by monitoring
       occurrences and warning of them, or by observing and undertaking certain procedures
       aimed to mitigate their harmful effects.
Unfortunately it is still at the first stage, because of lack of funds. Anyway data have been collected
(impact and intensity data for drought), organized and processed. And on this data it would be
possible to build further drought analysis and mapping.

The hydrological model HBV has been used in the framework of a collaboration with the
Norwegian company Startcraft for modeling a tributary of the Lim river. HMI has provided the input
data and the company has run the model. The results of the model are to be discussed next
month. It is also foreseen that HBV is installed at HMI and that hydrologist are trained in its use.
But first HMI wants to verify the accuracy ensured by this model in simulating Montenegrin
conditions. Indeed, already in the past, some problems arose when modeling Montenegrin rivers
because of their torrential character and the Karstic nature of the soil.

The HMI has scientific background and knowledge, but very limited human resources, to
participate in the DRR, and to produce critical data for risk analyses of hydrometeorological
extremes.
Concerning agrometeorological analysis, the personnel is mainly composed by agronomist with
week skill in IT (Any mapping or plotting or interpolating capacity) and low familiarity with English,
which prevented them to participate to DMC-SEE activities. Up to now, agrometeorological
activities were very basic and agrometeorological products were only some internal report without
external diffusion. It is expected that the DMC-SEE project could significantly strengthen the
Agrometeorology Division.

A general, but crucial, gap is that hydrological and meteorological databases (WISKI and
CLIDATA) are under exploited, because they are used only by the administrator for storing data,
but are not used by the sectoral experts (hydrologists, meteorologists, etc) for reporting, statistics
and all the other functionalities that this powerful tools offer. This mainly because usually training in
databases are addressed only to administrators, who finally has a sort of power awarded by the
possession of data. This situation finally results in really unproductive and also dangerous
practices, for example duplicating the databases for current use or analysis, using only part of the
available data, etc.

Concerning hydrological analysis, the capacities within HMI are still quite weak, even if with the
currents projects some improvements have been achieved. Generally there still is a lack or
discontinuity of hydrological data and lack of adequate methodologies and knowledge for floods
risk assessment.

Concerning drought analysis, even considering the results obtained till now by the DMC-SEE
project, the current activities on drought monitoring and mapping are insufficient.
So, floods and drought hazard mapping is still in preliminary phase.

WD and SEM doesn’t have GIS or spatial analysis capacities.

The needs of HMI in terms of human capacities, hardware and software for strengthening data
analysis and information mapping in drought/floods risk assessment are
1. Training of the users (hydrologists, climatologists, agrometeorologists, meteorologists) of
   CLIDATA and WISKI databases. This is a clear recommendation from HMI, because all the
   training that they received were addressed to the database administrators, but any training has
   been given to users for reporting and analyzing the databases. It means that up to now
   databases are only used for storing data, but not for using it. Current analysis of hydrological
   and meteorological data are performed on parallel user-owned databases, with the obvious
   consequent problems of coherence and repeatability of the analysis.
2. Hydrological models:
    a. Make an assessment of existing hydrological models for identifying which one could
        better respond to specific characteristics of Montenegro rivers,
    b. Training in hydrological modeling.
3. GIS and spatial analysis:
     a. Purchase of one license of Arctic Arc Info with Spatial Analyst and Geostatistical Analyst
        extensions,
     b. Training in GIS,
     c. Training in data interpolation,
     d. Spatial analytical methodologies and tools for vulnerability and risk assessment.

WD main needs are:
  - GIS software and training
  - Establish a geo-database with appropriate metadata
  - Exchange of geographic data through the web.

For SEM the main need is to have GIS software and training.




5.3 Information management and dissemination for drought and floods hazard mapping

5.3.1 SEM
SEM is working on the implementation of the 112 center, which would be a hub for information
dissemination and also information collection.
5.3.2 HMI

The information developed by HMI are available outside, but in some cases of commercial use are
not free. The mechanism of information dissemination includes the use of media (television, radio),
internet (e-mail, web-pages, and bulletins), hard copies of bulletins, reports and studies.
In some cases, the produced information is tailored to specific users e.g.:
     Information to public disseminated via mass media
     Information about weather condition to Sector for Emergency Management via bulletins
        (also available on the web).
     Warning dissemination and alerting via Centre 112, and via Fax to Sector for Emergency
        Management in case of expecting emergency situation.
     Bulletins, reports, studies for Ministry of agriculture, forestry and water management.
     Information about floods by official reports and direct communication to Ministry of water
        management.
Other information is available on demand, for example hydrological analysis are provided to WD
for planning banks or defenses against floods.

HMI applies a mechanism of raising awareness of stakeholders when new products are available,
as in case of SPI. It consists in sending information about new products and the way of
dissemination, organizing technical workshops on the products, their meaning and their use, and
also a feedback mechanism.


5.3.3 Strengths, gaps and needs in information management and dissemination for drought and
floods hazard mapping

HMI doesn’t receive often feedback information from the users, however the provided information
generally meets the users’ expectations in terms of information, time of delivery, format, and
comprehensibility. Particularly, communications with Sector for Emergency Management are very
good.
For the future, the effectiveness of the dissemination mechanism should be improved to ensure
that the information reached their target audience in a timely manner. It demands that the existing
mechanisms should be better defined and built on requests for specific information products from
the users.
In this perspective it is necessary to form a working team inside HMI who will be strictly responsible
for working on these problems and define the tools for quick communication with users.
The main needs are in terms of human capacities and training of existing staff.

WD indicates the need to establish a system for sharing data, particularly geographic data through
the web, a web catalogue of geographic data from which users can download and to which can
upload data.


5.4 Cooperation and collaboration


5.4.1 HMI


International cooperation
Montenegro is a member of the Drought Monitoring Centre for South East Europe. Its role in the
DMCSEE Project is as project’s assistant partner. Activities that HMI should undertake in the
project are related to the assistance in:
    Project Management and Coordination
    Promotion of the network platform, dissemination of the project results, and final conference
     Preparation and drought monitoring and mapping system, establishment of irrigation
      scheduling system
    Drought impact reporting, drought vulnerability and risk assessment
    Preparation of training manual, organization of seminars
HMI has many cooperation agreements, but anyone concern specific flood issues. Specific
cooperation agreements has been signed with Hydrometeorological services of other countries in
the SEE Region:
      Hydrometeorological Institute of FYROM-Macedonia,
      Meteorological Service of Republic Sprska.
      Albanian Institute of Energy, Water and Environment
There are also cooperation agreements with European countries (Norwegian Directorate for Water
and Energy) and international organizations.

Research and development
HMI has experiences in projects, such as:
      AdriCosmStar – integrated river basin and coastal zone management system, sponsored by
       the Italian Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea; project related to the bathymetric
       measurements of the Montenegro coastal area, Bojana river catchment and Scadar Lake;
      project SEE-ERA related to the regional transport of desert’s sand;
      research project EWCM related to the extreme weather conditions in Montenegro

HMI benefits from other initiatives even if they are not aiming to strengthen the drought/floods risk
assessment but almost focusing on monitoring issues. Norwegian Directorate for Water and
Energy was financing the automatization of part of the hydrological stations. It has also co-financed
the purchase of hydrological database WISKI.
HMI is collaborating with the Norwegian company Startcraft in the hydrological modeling of a river
using HBV model.


5.4.2 Strengths, gaps and needs in cooperation and collaboration

For HMI, main gaps hampering the cooperation with national/regional/international organizations in
drought/floods risk assessment concern principally the lack of neither permanent nor clearly
defined communication nor exchanges on this subject. Moreover, HMI does not have too many
human resources to participate in international projects, indeed it is not fully utilizing the
possibilities to gain from the EU cooperation and funding, the FP7 research and networking (e.g.
Marie Curie) programmes, and COST actions.
A critical element in international collaboration, including participation in trainings, is the low level of
English knowledge of most of technical personnel. This aspect is often under considered, but it
hamper dramatically the participation of personnel to international workshops or training. Thus the
identification of the persons for attending the events is done on their English familiarity and not on
their technical capacity or role within the institution.

In order to strengthen the international cooperation and collaboration some meetings and program
with clearly defining mutual obligations should be organized. In order to bypass the
communication problems HMI indicates also the need to foreseen always the participation of two
persons, at least one familiar with English and the other with the matter treated in the workshop.
Probably it could be foreseen an extensive programme of English courses.
6 NEEDS PRIORITY

Institution Profile                               Capacities                                             Needs
                             SEM has mandate for floods risk assessment
                             (droughts only as extreme meteorological event)
                             HMI has mandate of hazard data provider and for
                             meteorological risk mapping                            Solve overlaps of competencies in floods risk
                             MARD has mandate for Floods risk assessment            assessment between SEM and MARD
Institutional mandate        (including as per EC Directive on Floods protection)   Involvement of MARD in drought risk assessment
                             SEM receives direct support or information from
                             NHMS
                             WD receives direct support or information from
                             NHMS
                             HMI provides direct support or information to DRMA
Relationship                 and WD                                              Strengthen connection among various institutions
Hazard data collection and   HMI collects phenological data, which are managed   Adoption and usage of protocols for hazard data
management                   in excel                                            collection, management and analysis
                                                                                 SEM needs GIS (software and training)
                                                                                 HMI needs spatial analytical methodologies and
                             SEM coordinates specific working groups for risk    tools for vulnerability and risk assessment,
Hazard data analysis and     assessment                                          WD needs GIS (software and training), geo-
mapping                      HMI participates in SEM coordinated working groups database with appropriate metadata
                             Hazard information is used by SEM for preparing the
Hazard information           Floods emergency plan and the extreme               Exchange of geographic data through the web
dissemination                meteorological events emergency plan                (geonetwork or GIS web catalogue)
                             SEM collects floods impact data through local       There is the general need of adoption and usage of
                             commissions                                         protocols for hazard data collection, management
                             SEM has an inventory of information about some      and analysis and to implement a meta-database of
Impact data collection,      past flood                                          impact data per hazard
management and               MARD collects data on damages caused by floods
dissemination                at Municipal level
                                                                                 HMI needs in basic data collection are:
                                                                                 - 15 Hydrological on-line stations. OTT data logger
                             HMI collects basic hydrometeorological data through with sensors for water stage and water temperature
                             its network of observing stations,                  (or OTT Thalimedes)
                             IT/Telecommunication                                - 2 RiverCat Systems- ADCP RiverCAT complete
Basic data collection        WD receives basic hydrological data from HMI        with catamaran 20 OTT cable-way
                             HMS ensures QC but not all the historical data are
                             QC
Basic data quality control   HMS uses CLIDATA for meteorological data and
and management               WISKI for hydrological ones
                                                                                HMI needs:
                                                                                   -    training of CLIDATA users,
                                                                                   - training of WISKI users,
                                                                                   - training in remote sensing,
                                                                                   - training in data interpolation,
                                                                                   - training in hydrological modeling
                          HMI performs statistical and probability analysis,       - 1 license Arc Info with extensions-Spatial
                          uses GIS, calculates SPI and is developing                   Analyst and Geostatistical Analyst and
                          hydrological models                                          trainings.
                          HMI runs WRF, ETA NWP models
Basic data analysis and   HMI disseminate information through agreements,       Improve data and information exchange among all
dissemination             web, reports                                          the actors
                          HMI has bilateral collaborations with NHMS of         HMI needs English courses for the personnel,
                          Albania, Republic Sprska and FYROM                    networking and to consider always the participation
                          HMI has regional collaborations in the framework of   of 2 persons in international workshops
                          SEECOF, DMCSEE,SEEVCCC
                          HMI has international collaborations with WMO,
                          EUMETNET, EUMETSAT, ECMWF
                          HMI participates in the SEE-ERA , EWCM and
Collaborations            AdriCosmStar R&D projects
6.1 Hazard information production
The general picture emerging from the answers to the questionnaires and the meetings held during
the mission in Montenegro shows that main actors in drought and flood risk assessment have just
started to organize and have some relevant structural problems actually reducing their capacity to
evolve in this matter. The institutional framework is also improving but further efforts are needed in
order to make the process operational.
Concerning floods, tools and methodologies lack for flood hazard mapping. HMI is working on the
hydrological modeling, but it need further support in order to actively participate in floods risk
assessment.
Concerning drought, even if the DMC-SEE is giving a strong support to HMI, many aspects should
be strengthened, starting for the use of databases to introduce new analytical technologies.
Other relevant actors, SEM, WD and MARD have very basic needs, and in order to be able to use
the information provided by HMI they need at least GIS tools and skill.


              Drought                                  Floods
              Strengthening the drought analysis       Strengthening the floods analysis and
Objectives
              and mapping capacity                     mapping capacity
              1. HMI capacity in meteorological        3. HMI actively participate in floods risk
Expected          data analysis is improved                assessment providing better hydrological
results       2. Agrometeorological sector is              information
                  strengthened
               1.1 Training of the users of          3.1 Training of the users of WISKI database
                   CLIDATA database                  3.2 Review of existing hydrological models
Specific
               2.1 Training in Remote Sensing             and their applicability to Montenegro
Activities
                   applications in agrometeorology        specific hydrological characteristics
                                                     3.3 Training in hydrological modeling
            4. Provide training in GIS and spatial analysis
Common      5. Define common needs of regional geodata and the “acceptable level” of
and              geographical data sharing amongst countries (on-job training)
transversal 6. Identify a common methodology for impact data collection and establish a meta-
activities    database of impact data at national level
            7. English courses

1.1 e 3.1 Training of the users (hydrologists, climatologists, agrometeorologists, meteorologists) of
CLIDATA and WISKI databases. This is a clear recommendation from HMI, because all the
training that they received were addressed to the database administrators, but any training has
been given to users for reporting and analyzing the databases. It means that up to now databases
are only used for storing data, but not for using it. Current analysis of hydrological and
meteorological data are performed on parallel user-owned databases, with the obvious consequent
problems of coherence and repeatability of the analysis.
2.1 Training of HMI experts of Agrometeorological Division in remote sensing applications: as
observed in the whole region, the agrometeorological sector doesn’t use any remote sensing
application, even if EUMETSAT receiving station is in use at HMI.
3.2 Make an assessment of existing hydrological models for identifying which one could better
respond to specific characteristics of Montenegro rivers,
3.3 Training in hydrological modeling, with particular emphasis on those models better responding
to Montenegro characteristics.
4.1 Training in GIS and spatial analysis:
       a. Purchase of one license of Arctic Arc Info with Spatial Analyst and Geostatistical Analyst
       extensions,
       b. Training in GIS,
       c. Training in data interpolation,
       d. Spatial analytical methodologies and tools for vulnerability and risk assessment.

5.1 Define common needs of regional geodata and the “acceptable level” of geographical data
sharing amongst countries (on-job training). There is across the region a clear need of common
geographical dataset, at least for basic data as DEM (with harmonized 0 level of the sea), Land
use, Settlements, hydraulic infrastructures, hydrographic network. The best option would be to
charge an international organization to produce and manage this geographical information, on the
basis of existing data integrated with other remote sensed data. Considering that on the short term
this option is hardly feasible, at least, the sharing of existing geographic data could be improved in
the region. But some countries expressed a concern about the mutual benefit of the sharing of
geographical data. Thus it was asked before to agree an “acceptable level” of geographical data
sharing amongst countries. Then an inventory of data available and exchangeable could be done,
including complete metadata. Then an European center (JRC?) or an international organization
should ensure the harmonization of such data and its publication on the web through a geoportal.

6.1 Definition of a common methodology for post disaster needs assessment building on EU
experience and good practices. Moreover it proposes to develop a metadatabase on impact data,
analyze the interoperability of existing databases, survey to assess who has which data, how data
is organized

7.1 A critical element in international collaboration, including participation in trainings, is the low
level of English knowledge of most of technical personnel. This aspect is often under considered,
but it hamper dramatically the participation of personnel to international workshops or training.
Thus the identification of the persons for attending the events is done on their English familiarity
and not on their technical capacity or role within the institution. In order to strengthen the
international cooperation and collaboration some meetings and program with clearly defining
mutual obligations should be organized. In order to bypass the communication problems HMI
indicates also the need to foreseen always the participation of two persons, at least one familiar
with English and the other with the matter treated in the workshop.
Probably it could be foreseen an extensive programme of English courses.
6.2 Case study


to be developed by Mirjana on the drought component
ANNEXES

Annex 1, Institutions’ operational roles


                  Historical                 Historical   Hazard                 Hazard
                  Basic Data Historical data data         data       Hazard data data                   Risk
Agency            collection management Analysis          collection management analysis Hazard Mapping Assessment Planning           Feedbacks

                                                                                                           x (Multi-      x (Risk
DRMA                                                      in progress   in progress   x                    hazard)      management)
NHMS                   x             x             x            x                     x         x                                     x (drought)
AD
                                                                                                                           x (flood
WMA                                                                                   x     in progress   in progress     defense)
Annex 2, Institutions’ profile
Capacities
Institution Profile          SEM                        HMI/meteo                 HMI/hydro                MARD                        WD
                             Mandate for hazard
                             mapping and risk           Mandate of hazard data Mandate of hazard data                                  Mandate for Floods risk
Institutional mandate        assessment                 provider               provider                                                assessment
                             Receive direct support                                                                                    Receive direct support
                             or information from                                                                                       or information from
Relationship with NHMS       NHMS                       -                         -                                                    NHMS

                                                        Provide direct support    Provide direct support
Relationship with DRMA       -                          or information to DRMA    or information to DRMA

                                                        Stations,                 Stations,
Basic data collection                                   IT/Telecommunication      IT/Telecommunication                                 from HMI
Basic data quality control                              Yes                       Yes
Basic data management                                   DB, DBMS                  DB, DBMS
                                                                                  Statistical and
                                                                                  Probability analysis,
                                                        Statistical and           GIS, hydrological
                                                        probability analysis,     modeling (in
Basic data analysis                                     GIS, SPI                  development)
NWP                                                     WRF, ETA
Basic data and products                                 Agreements, web,          Agreements, web,
dissemination                                           reports                   reports

                                                        Phenological data, soil
Other hazard data collection                            moisture on stations
Hazard data management                                  Excel
Hazard data analysis and
mapping                      Working groups
Hazard information
dissemination
                             through local                                                                 damages caused by
Impact data collection       commissions                                                                   floods at Municipal level

                             inventory of information
Impact data management       about some past flood
Impact information
dissemination
                                                       NHMS of Albania,        NHMS of Albania,
                                                       Republic Sprska and     Republic Sprska and
National collaboration                                 FYROM                   FYROM
                                                       SEECOF,                 SEECOF,
Regional collaboration                                 DMCSEE,SEEVCCC          DMCSEE,SEEVCCC
                                                       WMO, EUMETNET,          WMO, EUMETNET,
International collaboration                            EUMETSAT, ECMWF         EUMETSAT, ECMWF
R&D                                                    SEE-ERA , EWCM          AdriCosmStar




Needs
Institution Profile           SEM                      HMI/meteo               HMI/hydro                    MARD                    WD
                              Solve overlaps of                                                                                     Solve overlaps of
                              competencies in floods                                                        Involvement of MARD in competencies in floods
Institutional mandate         risk assessment                                                               drought risk assessment risk assessment
                              strengthen connection                                                         strengthen connection   strengthen connection
                              among various                                                                 among various           among various
Relationship with NHMS        institutions              -                       -                           institutions            institutions
                                                       strengthen connection   strengthen connection        strengthen connection   strengthen connection
                                                       among various           among various                among various           among various
Relationship with DRMA        -                        institutions            institutions                 institutions            institutions
                                                                               - 15 Hydrological on-line
                                                                               stations. OTT data logger
                                                                               with sensors for water
                                                                               stage and water
                                                                               temperature (or OTT
                                                                               Thalimedes)
                                                                               - 2 RiverCat Systems-
                                                                               ADCP RiverCAT
                                                                               complete with catamaran
Basic data collection                                                          20 OTT cable-way
Basic data quality control                                                                             54
Basic data management                                                          Training on WISKI DB
                                                                                     - Training of WISKI users
                                                                                     - Precipitation-outflow
                                                                                     Hydrological model and
                                                                                     training
                                                          Training of CLIDATA        - 1 license Arc Info with
                                                          users, GIS (software and extensions-Spatial
                                                          training), remote sensing, Analyst and
                                                          training in data           Geostatistical Analyst
Basic data analysis                                       interpolation              and trainings.
NWP
                                                                                      Training of staff, Improve
Basic data and products       Improve data and            Improve data and            data and information         Improve data and
dissemination                 information exchange        information exchange        exchange                     information exchange
                              Adoption and usage of       adoption and usage of       adoption and usage of        adoption and usage of
                              protocols for hazard data   protocols for hazard data   protocols for hazard data    protocols for hazard data
                              collection, management      collection, management      collection, management       collection, management
Hazard data collection        and analysis                and analysis                and analysis                 and analysis
Hazard data management
                                                                                                                   GIS (software and
                                                          Spatial analytical                                       training), geo-database
                                                          methodologies and tools GIS (software and                with appropriate
Hazard data analysis and      GIS (software and           for vulnerability and risk training), training in        metadata, GIS web
mapping                       training)                   assessment,                hydrological modeling         catalogue
Hazard information                                                                                                 Exchange of geographic
dissemination                                                                                                      data through the web.
                              adoption and usage of       adoption and usage of       adoption and usage of        adoption and usage of
                              protocols for hazard data   protocols for hazard data   protocols for hazard data    protocols for hazard data
                              collection, management      collection, management      collection, management       collection, management
Impact data collection        and analysis                and analysis                and analysis                 and analysis
Impact data management
Impact information            meta-database of impact meta-database of impact meta-database of impact              meta-database of impact
dissemination                 data per hazard         data per hazard         data per hazard                      data per hazard
National collaboration
Regional collaboration
                                                                                      Networking, English
International collaboration                               English courses             courses
R&D
Annex 3, List of key persons met during the country mission in Montenegro

  Name and           Institution        Position                Contact                E-mail
  surname                                                      phone/fax
 Ms Dragana    UNDP                Project coordinator   Phone. + 382 20 225     dragana.cenic@un
 Čenić                             / Economy and         533                     dp.org
                                   Environment           Fax. + 382 20 255 551
 Ms Denisa     Sector for          Coordinator for       Phone. + 382 51 232     mup.emergency.ba
 Nurkovic      Emergency           Territorial Unit      866                     @t-com.me
               Management
 Mr Gavro      Ministry of                               Phone. +382 20 482      gavro.kaludjerovic
 Kaluđerović   Agriculture and                           298                     @mpsv.gov.me
               Rural Development                         Fax: + 382 20 234 306

 Ms Ivana      Directorate for     Adviser               Phone. + 382 20 224     ivana.bajkovic@uz
 Bajković      Water                                     593                     v.gov.me
                                                         Fax. + 382 20 224 593
 Ms Mirjana    HMI                 Head of Sector of     Phone. +382 20 655      mirjana.ivanov@m
 Ivanov                            Meteorology           365                     eteo.co.me
                                                         Fax. + 382 20 655 197
 Ms Ivana      HMI                 Adviser for           Phone. +382 20 655      ivana.pavicevic@m
 Pavićević                         International         548                     eteo.co.me
                                   Relations             Fax. + 382 20 655 197
 Mr Luka       HMI                 Director              Phone. +382 20 655      luka.mitrovic@mete
 Mitrovic                                                548                     o.gov.me
                                                         Fax. + 382 20 655 197

								
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