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					A Überblick
B Privatisierung
C Das TKG




                   KLAUS-DIETER SCHEURLE
                                  MAI 2002
A EUROPEAN TELCO MARKET AND REGULATORY
  OVERVIEW




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Introduction
This presentation provides an overview of the EU telco markets, relevant EU regulation and
specific issues related to key market segments
 The European telecommunications market has changed considerably over the last few years
    Incumbent operators hampered by heavy debt loads
    Growth prospects for wireless unclear, impacting the valuation and financing abilities of
       mobile operators
    Business model for alt nets unproven und increasingly doubtful, as a large number of
       operators are forced to file for bankruptcy
 These developments pose new regulatory challenges
    EU telco markets were transformed from monopoly models to a competitive environment
       over the past 10 years
    Abundant financing available in early phases of deregulation, leading to the emergence of a
       large number of operators
    Today, technological changes and a difficult competitive environment need to be factored in
 Selected regulatory issues still to be solved for full market liberalisation, including:
      Fixed: ULL, WLL, interconnection pricing regime
      Mobile: 3G, MVNO’s, roaming pricing issues
      Internet: Pricing issues
      Cable: Privatisation of cable networks

                                                                  2
EU Telco Market Overview




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EU Telco Market Overview
                                      (1)
                       2001 EU Telco Market                                                                  Projected EU Telco Market
                       Revenue Composition                                                                      Revenue Evolution
                                                                                           (€ in billions)




                            (2)
    Voice Telephony                                      Mobile Services
          50%                                                 38%
                                                                                                                                                                    277.7
                                                                                                                                                      263.7
                                                                                                                                        247.5
                                                                                                                           233.9
                                                                                                              217.7
                                                                                                195.0




                                                                                                 2000         2001         2002          2003          2004         2005



                                              Leased Lines                                 Main revenue drivers include:
                                                and Data                                       Mobile
                                                Services
                                                  12%                                          Internet/multimedia
                                                                                               Broadband access

Source: EITO 2001                                                                        Source: IDC 2001
(1) EU countries Excluding Norway
(2) Incl. Internet dial-up services


                      The total 2001 EU Telco market is estimated at €217.7 billion in revenues.


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EU Telco Market Overview (Cont’d)
                                                   Estimated 2001 Telco Market Revenues
 (€ in billions)


               46.6



                          36.0
                                 34.3
                                           32.3



                                                     22.8




                                                                10.8

                                                                           5.6        5.3        5.1       5.0        4.5        3.6       2.8        2.7
                                                                                                                                                                0.3




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Source: EITO 2001



     In terms of revenues Germany is the biggest telecoms market in the EU, followed by the
                                        UK and France.


                                                                                     5
Current EU Telco Market Regulations




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       Structure of European Telco Regulation

International   EU                                                                                                                Others
                                              Telecommunication Bodies
Organisations   Others
                                               EC Directorate General for Information                                             World Trade Organisation
                 European Commission           Society
                                                                                                                                   General Agreement on
                 European Parliament          Information Society Promotion Office                                                Trade in Services, basic
                                                                                                                                    telecommunications
                 EC Directorate General       European Telecommunications Office
                  for competition                                                                                                  International
                                               European Telecommunications Platform                                                Telecommunications Union
                                               European Telecommunications Standards
                                                Institute

                                               EC Directorate General for Competition


NRA’s
                                                                                                                        Implement EU directives
(in each EU
member state)                                                                                                           Independent from Ministry and
                                                 ART (France)
                                                                                                                         structurally separated incumbent
                                                              OFTEL (UK)                                                 operator

                                                                         Reg TP (Germany)                               Empowered to enforce their decisions
                                                                                                                        Main course of action encompass
                                                                                                                         bottlenecks and scarce resources (e.g.
                                                                                                                         licensing, interconnection, special
                                                                                                                         access, universal services)

                                 There is a two-tier regulatory structure in Europe.


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European Market Liberalisation – Current
Status
 Data and related value added services
  liberalised in late 1980’s / early 1990’s
 Mobile markets liberalised with the
  introduction of digital cellular systems                                                                                                                                          FINLAND



  (GSM/2G)                                                                                                            Shetland
                                                                                                                      Islands
                                                                                                                                                  NORWAY
                                                                                                                                                               SWEDEN




 Fixed line voice last segment to be
                                                                                                                         Orkney                                                            ESTONIA             RUSSIA
                                                                                                                         Islands
                                                                                                       Hebrides

                                                                                                                                                                                                  LATVIA

  liberalised                                                                                                     UNITED
                                                                                                                                                   DENMARK                          LITHUANIA


                                                                                                                                                                                                      BELARUS

   Driven by EU and national governments                                                          IRELAND
                                                                                                                  KINGDOM
                                                                                                                                                                            POLAND
                                                                                                                                    NETHERLANDS                Ebe




   Aiming to improve service supply and
                                                                                                                                                  GERMANY                                                  UKRAINE

                                                                                                                                       BELGIUM
                                                                                                                                                                      CZECH
                                                                                                                                                                     REPUBLIC    SLOVAKIA                     MOLDOVA

     technology deployment                                                                                                  Loire

                                                                                                                        FRANCE                   SWITZ.
                                                                                                                                                                     AUSTRIA
                                                                                                                                                                                HUNGARY
                                                                                                                                                                                                      ROMANIA
                                                                                                                                                                                         Danube
                                                                                                                                                                SLOVENIA

 Broader framework for fixed market                                                                                                     MONACO
                                                                                                                                                          Po
                                                                                                                                                                            BOSNIA AND
                                                                                                                                                                           HERZEGOVINA
                                                                                                                                                                     CROATIA
                                                                                                                                                                                           SERBIA          BULGARIA


  liberalisation set by EU directives                                                  PORTUGAL
                                                                                                      SPAIN
                                                                                                                  ANDORRA                                      ITALY
                                                                                                                                                                                                  FYROM
                                                                                                                                                                                                  MACEDONIA
                                                                                           Tagus
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      TURKEY
                                                                                                                                                                                     ALBANIA


   Recommended time frame and broad                                                                                                                                                               GREECE




     definitions for national regulatory regime
   National regulators responsible for
                                                                                                                               Pre 1998                                          1.1.1998
     implementing EU directives                                         Fully Liberalised
                                                                        Market                                                 1998-2001                                         Post 2001



  European market liberalisation goes back to the late 1980s, with the main thrust being felt
                                     in the last decade.


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1999 Communication Commission Review
Main harmonization Directives (issued in 1998) to be reviewed by year-end 1999
 21 Directives

 7 Implementation’s Report

Scope of the 1999 CC review to include the following
 Balance between infrastructure and service competition

 Competition in access to end-users for higher bandwidth services

 When and where general competition law could replace sector specific rules

 Consumer protection issues such as quality of service

 Whether or not there should continue to be a distinction in the regulatory rules applicable to
  fixed and mobile telecommunication
 Appropriate framework for the converging broadcasting, telecommunications and IT sectors

Interactive process with inputs from all relevant parties, including NRA’s and telco
operators




       The review of the 1998 regulatory package was the basis for a new EU regulatory
                                          framework.


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Road to a New Regulatory Framework

                                             2000                                                                                   2003


     January               March                            July                              December                                  January




     Review of         Lisbon European             Proposals for new                       New Regulatory                           Expected
    Regulatory             Council                   regulation and                          Framework                          implementation on
    Framework                                          Directives                             published                           national level
  launched by EC                                       published




Framework development guiding principals
 Market players are encouraged to take self-regulatory initiatives in areas in which a common approach is
   necessary
 Stable regulatory framework to enable market players to make investment decisions with confidence

 Regulatory framework should aim to be technologically neutral

 Primary responsibility rests with NRA



                   The new EU regulatory framework finalized in December 2000.


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New European Regulatory Framework
New framework consists of six proposals, including
 Directive on a common regulatory framework for electronic communications networks and
  services
 Directive on the authorization of electronic communication networks and services

 Directive on access to, and interconnection of, electronic communication networks and
  associated facilities
 Directive on universal service and users’ rights relating to electronic communications
  networks and services
 Directive on the processing of personal data and the protection of privacy in the electronic
  communications sector
 Regulation on unbundled access to the local loop




  New common regulatory framework for electronic communication networks and services
                    issues by the Commission in December 2000.


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7th Report on the Implementation of the
Telecommunications Regulatory Review
    Main Regulatory Bottlenecks                                                           Commission Positioning
                                                               NRAs to be more active
                                                                    Speeding up LLU progress (Deadlines / Credible penalties)
        Local loop unbundling
                                                                    Ensure wholesale DSL offered to new entrants on non-
                                                                        discriminating terms
                                                               Wide range of peak time call termination charges in mobile
  Cost of terminating calls in mobile                              between Member States not justifiable

                                                               To be encouraged and provided to new entrants where it is
Flat rate interconnection to the internet                          supplied to an incumbent’s downstream arm

                                                               Wide range of prices across the Community and different lead
Pricing and provisioning of leased lines                           times for supply not justifiable

                                                               NRAs to verify regulatory accounts after they are closed, and
 Tariff distortions and prize squeezes                             supply statements of compliance

                                                               Full range of carrier selection and pre-selection services to be
              Numbering                                            available in all Member States

                                                               Uncertainties relating to the role assigned to local and
             Rights of way                                      municipalities authorities to be removed to facilitate roll-out of
                                                                3G services
                                                               Monitoring of consumer issues to be strengthened
         Consumer protection                                        Protection of interests throughout the Community (service
                                                                        quality, pricing, contract issues, and the provision of redress
                                                                        mechanisms)
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Current Trends in European Regulation
Current regulatory activities on a European level are focusing on
 Harmonization of legislation - shift of regulatory power towards EU Commission (e.g. IC rates)

 Standardization of interactions between EU regulative bodies and the NRAs

 Further definition of competitive issues, e.g. dominant market share

 Radio frequency issues

 Timely delivery of leased lines

 Full implementation of Carrier pre-selection across all EU member countries

 Local loop access (both ULL and bit stream access)
   Call-ULL and bit stream access
   By-call access
   Establishment of best practice standards
 Strengthening of consumer rights, including
   Number portability
   Universal service obligations for ISP



    Current EU regulatory activities center around fine-tuning the Regulatory Framework.


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Current Trends in European Regulation
        Operators Authorized to Offer                                                               European Communications Market
          Public Voice Telephony                                                                               Evolution
                                                                                           Estimated EU year 2001 communications market
        UK                                                                 203                revenues about €217.7bn
  Germany                                                        167                           9.5% growth over year end 2000 revenues
       Italy                                                150                            About 263 million mobile subscribers
Netherlands                            80                                                      Representing about 73% penetration (up from 55%
     Spain                        67                                                            in 2000)
   Sweden                     60                                                               About 65 mobile network operators
    Finland                   60
                                                                                           International calls down in price (17% for residential
    France                   50                                                               and 21% for business users in comparison with
  Denmark                48                                                                   2000)
    Austria             41
    Ireland             38
   Portugal        24
   Belgium         21
Luxembourg     13
    Greece     7




  So far, EU (de-) regulation has led to full competition in all EU communications markets
                                  and robust market growth.


                                                                                  14
Fixed Line Communications




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        Major EU Fixed Line Operators


  2001                       € 48.3 bn       € 43.0 bn          € 29.4 bn             € 31.3 bn              € 31.0 bn             € 12.4 bn             € 6.9 bn              € 9.0 bn
Revenues

   Market                    € 63.7 bn       € 32.7 bn          € 35.1 bn             € 59.3 bn              € 58.1 bn             € 12.9 bn             € 6.7 bn              € 16.2 bn
   Cap (1)

 # of Fixed                  46.7 millions   34,2 millions      29.1 millions         27.3 millions          19.8 millions         6.6 millions          5.4 millions          5.9 millions
  Lines (2)

# of Mobile                  51.2 millions   41.7 millions      0.0 millions          31.3 millions          24.3 millions         13.7 millions         7.3 millions          7.8 millions
   Users

 % Public                    57.0%           56.4%              100.0%                96.0%                  100.0%                65.3%                 100.0%                36.0%
  Float
                             Hrvatske Tel.   Casema             Albacom               Telekom                Portugal Tel.         Cesky Tel.            Belgacom              Eesti Telefon
                             Matav           Equant             BT Belgium            Austria                                      KPN Qwest             Sunrise               Lattelekom
                             Slovenske       Novis              BT Tel                                                             PanTel                Comm.                 Lietuvos Tel.
                             Tel.            Uni2               Cegetel                                                                                                        Telia Denmark
 Major EU
 Holdings                                    Wind               Esat
                                                                Telenordia
                                                                Telfort
                                                                Viag Interkom
(1) : As of April 29, 2002
(2) : PSTN lines


                             EU incumbents fixed line operators include a number of sizeable companies.

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EU Telecom Sectors Performance
                                EU Telco Sectors Performance since January 2000


       200
                                                       Integrated -66.69%                        Mobile -62.57%
       180                                             Pay TV & Cable -71.66%                    Altnets -92.63%

       160

       140

       120

       100

         80

         60

         40

         20

          0
          Jan 00       Apr 00    Jul 00         Oct 00          Jan 01          Apr 01           Jul 01          Oct 01           Jan 02          Apr 02


Source: Factset



                   Valuations for European telco operatrs have fallen significantly over the last 2 years.


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Local Loop Unbundling
          Country              Availability                          Retained Option                              Monthly Charge (€)           One-off charge
          Netherlands          Available since March 1999            Copper pair, line sharing under discussion   11.93                        133.90
          Austria              Available since July 1999             Copper pair                                  10.90                        54.50 (36.34)
          Denmark              Available since September 1999        Copper pair                                  4.48 full access             177.48 full access
                                                                     Line sharing                                 4.48 shared access           45.14 shared access
          Germany              Available since Feb 11999. Offer      Copper pair                                  12.99 full access            70.56 - 125.35
                               fixed until June 2003                 Line sharing                                 4.77 shared access           85.61
          Portugal             Available since January 2001          Copper pair                                  11.96                        82.80
          Ireland              Available since January 2001          Copper pair                                  16.81 full access            121.52
                                                                     Line sharing                                 9.00 shared access           123.41
          Italy                Available since May 2000              Copper pair                                  11.62 - 14.15                92.03
          Norway               Available since Feb 2001              Copper pair                                  12.05 - 40.45                56.02 - 162.02
          Sweden               Available since March 2000            Copper pair                                  13.44 full access            160.15 (76.15)
                                                                     Line sharing                                 5.60 shared access           160.15 (76.15)
          Finland              Available since January 2001          Copper pair                                  12.00 - 17.50 full access    avge: 200
                                                                     Line sharing                                 7.50 - 13.00 shared access   avge: 200
          France               Mandated since January 2001           Copper pair                                  10.50 full access            78.70
                                                                     Line sharing                                 2.90 shared access           78.70
          Spain                Mandated since March 1999             Copper pair                                  13.00 full access            75.38

                                                                     Line sharing                                 5.39 shared access           75.38
          Belgium              Mandated since January 2001           Copper pair                                  13.29 full access            79.9
                                                                     Line sharing                                 3.22 shared access           79.9
          UK                   Mandated since January 2001           Copper pair                                  16.09 full access            139.28
                                                                     Line sharing                                 6.99 shared access           1185.18
          Greece               Mandated since Feb 2001               Copper pair                                  11.48                        123.38

Source: Analysis 2002, European Commission
Note:   Prices in Parentheses is the connection charge for additional copper pairs



    Growth in number of unbundled lines has been very slow; e.g. only about 240,000 (out of
                   40 MM) lines in Germany three years after unbundling.


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Price Trends (Example Germany)

                                               Price Trends in Germany
(in € cents)


       30

       25

       20

       15

       10

         5

         0
          Jan-97    Nov-97                 Sep-98                   Jul-99                   May-00                    Mar-01                    Jan-02
                                      DT                   ICR                   Lowest Market Price




     Long distance calls, peak period (DT’s price and lowest market price) vs IC costs, price
                                cuts since Dec 31st, 1997 (89%).


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Broadband Access Technology

                    European Broadband
                                                                                            European Broadband Access Revenues
                       Access Lines
 (in millions)                                                                          (€ in billions)
                                                                                                                                                               14.6
        60.0

        50.0
                                                                                                                                                   10.4
        40.0

        30.0                                                                                                                           6.7

        20.0                                                                                                               4.0

        10.0                                                                                                  1.7
                                                                                                     0.5
         0.0
            2000    2001          2002   2003         2004         2005                             2000      2001        2002         2003        2004        2005
Source: IDC 2002                                                                       Source: IDC 2002



  Number of fixed broadband access lines in Europe (EU)                                 Fixed line broadband access revenues expected to grow from
    expected to increase from about 6 million today to                                     less than €2.0 billion today to about €13.1 billion in 2005
    approximately 52 million in 2005                                                        54.0% CAGR 2002 to 2005
     DSL and cable modems most important access technologies
                                                                                         France, Germany, Italy and Spain expected to lead the market
     Satellite adding about 18 million connections with currently                         over the next few years (66.2% revenues market share in
       limited 2-way capability                                                            2005)
  Germany is expected to be the strong leader of the broadband
    market with approx 30.4% of all broadband access in 2005




         Fixed broadband access technologies (xDSL and Cable) are still in very early lifecycle
                                              stage.


                                                                               20
Mobile Communications




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EU Mobile Market Evolution
                Penetration and Technology                                                                                           Major Mobile Operators
 % Penetration (EU Average)                                                                               (€ in billions)



 80%                                                                                                          € 50               98.1m                                               100
                                                                                             74.4%
 70%                                                                                       71.7%
                                                                                   69.1%
                                                                           66.3%
 60%                                                               62.2%

 50%
                                                           54.8%                                              € 40                                                                   80
                                                   49.1%
 40%                                       43.9%
                                   39.3%
 30%                       33.1%
                   29.4%
 20%       26.2%                                                                                              € 30                                                                   60
                                                                                                                                                       51.5m
 10%
                                                                                                                                            43.9m
  0%                                                                                                                        € 45.1
         Q1   Q2   Q3          Q4   Q1   Q2           Q3   Q4   Q1            Q2   Q3   Q4                    € 20                                                                   40
        1999 1999 1999        1999 2000 2000         2000 2000 2001          2001 2001 2001

                                                                                                                                                                             24.1m
                                                                                                                                                                    19.8m
                                                                                                              € 10                                                                   20
                              GSM
                                                                                                                                         € 15.3
                                                                                                                                                    € 13.0       € 10.2      € 8.3
                                                                                                               €0                                                                    0
                                                                           GPRS                                         Vodafone         Orange     T-Mobile       TIM       TEM

                                                                                                                                           Revenues 2001       Equity Subs



Source: CSFB Research, Global Mobile & Mobile Communications 2001



             Mobile penetration still growing rapidly; major international operators emerging.


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 Overview Major EU Mobile Operators


Controlled
  Pop
      (1)
                   299.8 millions                 163.9 millions                    196.2 millions                     68.3 millions                        150.8 millions


  2001
                   € 45.1 bn                      € 15.3 bn                         € 8.3 bn                           € 10.2 bn                            € 13.0 bn
Revenues

 Market
     (2)           € 122.5 bn                     € 31.5 bn                         € 30.4 bn                          € 42.2 bn                            Not listed
 Cap
                   Connex GSM                     Connect Austria                   TEM                                Mobilkom Austria                     Ben
                   Eircell Vodafone               Dutchtone                         TMN                                Radio Mobil                          Era GSM
                   Europolitan Vodafone           Mobilcom                          3G Telecom                         STET Hellas                          Max Mobil
                   Libertel Vodafone              Mobistar                          IPSE                               Telekom Serbia                       Radio Mobil
                   Omnitel Vodafone               Optimus                           Quam                               TIM                                  T-Mobil Germany
                   Plus GSM                       Orange Comm                       UMTS Suiza                                                              T- Mobil UK
                   Proximus                       Orange Denmark                                                                                            UMC
                   SFR                            Orange France                                                                                             Westel
European           Swisscom                       Orange Romania
Holdings           Vodafone Airtel                Orange Slovensko
                   Vodafone Albania               Orange Sweden
                   Vodafone D2                    Orange UK
                   Vodafone Hungary               PTK Centertel
                   Vodafone Malta                 Voxtel
                   Vodafone Panafon               Wind
                   Vodafone UK
                   Vodafone Telecel

    Source: Company Data, CSFB Research, The World Factbook
    (1): Incl. only EU controlled Pop
    (2): As of April 29 2002


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Current Strategic Environment
                           Global            Global              Global
                          Wireless          Controlled           Equity                                           Wireless Network Ownership
                          Ventures            Subs (1)           Subs(1)      Germany        UK          France        Italy    Spain    Netherl’s                  US          Japan

                               28              87.7m            98.1m



                               10              51.2m            51.5m


                               28              41.7m            43.9m



                               13              31.3m            19.8m


                               18              24.3m            24.1m


                                4              13.7m            12.7m



: no presence             : <50% interest                     : >50% interest




Source:
(1) Mobile Communication, Global Mobile, 2001
(2) Pro forma for recent transaction with Portugal Telecom in Latin America




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Mobile Data Growth
                                    Projected Mobile Data Revenue Growth (EU)
  (€ in millions)
                      40,000

                      35,000

                      30,000

                      25,000

                      20,000

                      15,000

                      10,000

                       5,000

                          0
                           2000           2001                      2002                      2003                     2004                      2005
                                    Data - Traffic            Data - Applications                SMS            Telematics
Source: IDC 2001



 Rollout of GSM services triggered quantum leap in mobile market
      Mobile approaching mass market status and beginning to replace fixed line voice
      Current technology innovation focused on wireless data / Internet applications (2G/3G)
 Mobile data market projected to grow at 34.3% CAGR (02-05)


                    Mobile data application markets are expected to grow rapidly in the mid-term.


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3G Licensing Process

  1Q00              2Q00          3Q00                   4Q00                   1Q01                   2Q01                   3Q01                     1Q02



Spain               UK         Germany              Sweden                 Belgium              Ireland                  Luxembourg                 France (2)
Finland                                             Norway                 Greece
                                                    Portugal               Denmark
                                                    Austria                France (1)
                                                    Italy




          Auction                           Beauty Contest                        Combined Process



 Auctions generated record amounts for European Governments (e.g. UK €662/pop, Germany €615/pop)

 Rising investor concerns and increasing financial problems of most European operators started the re-rating of
   the Telco sector in 2000
 Most recent UMTS licensing auctions results show more moderate views on technology upside for operators
   (e.g. Switzerland, Austria, Italy, France)


                              The countries have awarded their UMTS licences.


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Mobile Virtual Network Operators
  Overview EU 3G MVNO Regulation                                                                  MVNO Evolution
                                                                        MVNO’s buy managed network capacity from mobile
                                                                           licence holders
                                                                            Model was implemented in 2G environment in the
                                                                             UK (Virgin Mobile) and Norway (Sense)
                                                                            Expected to play significant role in 3G environment
                                                                        First 3G MVNO agreements include One.Tel
                                                                           (agreements with O2 and KPN Mobile)
                                                                        3G MVNO agreements and service offerings
                                                                           expected to be data centric
                                                                        Validity of MVNO business model depending on
                                                                           National Regulation




     MVNO/SP provision included in 3G licences


   MVNO are expected to intensify competition in mobile markets and accelerate the
                       deployment of mobile data services.


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Overview of European Roaming Rates
              German mobile users in the UK                                                                               UK mobile users in Germany

     € 1.60                                                                                                   € 1.40


     € 1.40
                                                                                                              € 1.20


     € 1.20
                                                                                                              € 1.00

     € 1.00
                                                                                                              € 0.80

     € 0.80

                                                                                                              € 0.60
     € 0.60


                                                                                                              € 0.40
     € 0.40


                                                                                                              € 0.20
     € 0.20



     € 0.00                                                                                                   € 0.00
                       T-Mobil                  E-Plus                  Vodafone                                                T-Mobil            Orange           Vodafone

                            Vodafone         O2        Orange         T-Mobil                                                         Vodafone   E-Plus     Viag   T-Mobil

Source: Company Web Site
* Rates depend on specific network and whether peak or off-peak
Vodafone rates are based on Eurocall rates that must be activated by selecting their International Savers plan at (£2.50 per month)


        Current Europe to Europe Roaming Rates from Germany and the UK to home country.

                                                                                               28
Internet




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Overview EU Internet Market
                                                            Overview of the EU Internet Market
               Internet
            Penetration (%)

                 60%                                                                                                                                  Sweden

                                                                                                           Norway
                 50%
                                                                                                          Finland
                                                                                           UK
                                                                                                          Denmark
                 40%
                                                                      Austria                           Netherlands
                                                                                                Germany
                 30%                              Ireland                        Belgium

                 20%                                                  Italy                     France
                                          Spain


                 10%                          Portugal                   Greece

                                                                                                                                                                  Fixed Line
                   0%                                                                                                                                           Penetration (%)
                     30%                           40%                        50%                   60%                       70%                      80%

Source:
Fixed line penetration rates, European Information Technology Observatory 2000
Internet Penetration, IDC 2001



                Most EU countries still significantly behind the US in terms of Internet market
                                                 development.


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Internet Market Projections
      European Internet Growth Projections                                                                            Telecommunications as % of GDP (European AVG)
                          250                                                               60%




                                                                                                                               Communications spend as a % of GDP
                                                                                                                                                                    6.0%
                                                                                            50%                                                                                Data Wave Changes             Forecast
                          200
                                                                                                                                                                    5.0%        Growth Trajectory
         Millions Users




                                                                                                  Penetration
                                                                                            40%
                          150
                                                                                            30%                                                                     4.0%
                          100                                                                                                                                                 Actual
                                                                                            20%
                                                                                                                                                                    3.0%
                           50                                                               10%

                            0                                                               0%                                                                      2.0%
                                 2000            2001    2002        2003         2004
                                Spain                              UK                                                                                               1.0%
                                Italy                              Germany
                                France                             Rest of Western Europe
                                Western Europe

Source: IDC 2001                                                                                                     Source: CSFB and UBS Warburg estimates



                                    Web Buyers in the EU                                                                                                            e-Commerce Revenue in the EU
                                                                                                                      (€ in billions)
                                                                                                                           1,200
        100 m                                                                      35%       40%
                                                                     30%                                                   1,000
           80 m                                          26%                                 30%
                                             22%                                                                             800
           60 m                 18%
                                                                                   81 m      20%                             600
           40 m                                                       64 m
                                                                                                                             400
                                                         49 m                                10%
           20 m                              34 m                                                                            200
                                21 m
                    0m                                                                       0%                                                   0
                                2000         2001        2002         2003          2004                                                           2000                         2001                2002          2003           2004

                                    Nb of quarterly buyers      Buyers as % of all users                                                                              EU Business to Consumer              EU Business to Business

Source: IDC 2001                                                                                                     Source: IDC 2001



                                                        Explosive Internet growth expected in the near term.


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    Overview Major European ISPs



  2001                    € 1.1 bn           €1.6 bn                    € 0.6 bn                      € 0.7 bn                     €2.0 bn
Revenues


 Market                   € 13.0 bn          € 8.5 bn                   € 3.0 bn                      € 4.1 bn                     € 9.6 bn
 Cap (1)


  # of                    10.7 millions      6.7 millions               7.3 millions                  5.7 millions                 5.0 millions
 Users

                          Club Internet      Alapage.com                12move                        Angelfire                    Euredit
                          Terravista         Euronet Internet           Excite Italia                 AnimationExpress             Euro Directory
                          T-Online           Freeserve                  Netchemya                     AtuHora                      Giallo
                          Ya.com             Indice Multimedia          Netra Deutschland             Invertia                     Seat PG
 Major                                       Kompass                    PlanetOne                     Lycos                        Telegate
European                                     Marcopoly                  Tiscali France (ex-           Matchmaker                   Thomson Directories
Holdings                                     Pages Jaunes               LibertySurf)                  Quote                        Tin.it
                                             Wanadoo                    Tiscali Netherlands           Terra                        Virgilio
                                                                        (ex-WorldOnline)              Tripod
                                                                        Wish-Noknok                   Wired, etc

    Source: Company Data, CSFB Research
    (1): As of April 29 2002


      The ISP industry is consolidating and a few dominant Pan-European players are emerging.

                                                                                32
Cable Systems




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EU Cable Markets
    Total # of EU Cable Homes Passed (2002E)                                                              Cable Penetration
                                                                                 (% of Homes Passed)



                                                                                  120%


                 UK                       France                                  100%
                14.8m                       8.1m
                                                      Netherlands
                                                          6.5m                      80%


                                                              Italy
                                                                                    60%
                                                             4.9m

                                                            Spain
                                                             4.4m                   40%

Germany
  32.0m                                                   Belgium                   20%
                                                            3.9m

                                               Other
                                                                                     0%
                                               12.8m




                                                                                          Ire s




                                                                                         Au y
                                                                                        S w nd




                                                                                                                                                              ly
                                                                                         en y




                                                                                         Fr l
                                                                                        N n


                                                                                       G ark




                                                                                       Po nd
                                                                                                  m




                                                                                         Fi a




                                                                                                  ce



                                                                                                                                                        K
                                                                                                    n
                                                                                                 ga
                                                                                                nd




                                                                                                an
                                                                                               wa
                                                                                                  e




                                                                                                 ri




                                                                                                                                                            Ita
                                                                                                 ai

                                                                                                                                                       U
                                                                                                iu



                                                                                               la




                                                                                                a
                                                                                             ed




                                                                                             an
                                                                                              st



                                                                                            rtu



                                                                                           Sp
                                                                                             m

                                                                                            m
                                                                                             la
                                                                                            lg




                                                                                            nl
                                                                                           or
                                                                                         er
                                                                                     Be




                                                                                         er
                                                                                             h




                                                                                       D
                                                                                          et
                                                                                       N




Source: Kagan



                        In total there are about 87.4 million cable households in the EU.


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 Major Cable Players


   2001                       € 1.4 bn                             € 3.2 bn                         € 1.3 bn                         € 0.2 bn
 Revenues


  Market                      € 0.05 bn                            € 0.03 bn                        € 0.5 bn                         € 0.2 bn
  Cap (1)


 Enterprise                   € 3.3 bn                             € 9.6 bn                         € 5.6 bn                         € 0.6 bn
  Value (1)


   # of                       7.3 millions                         6.9 millions                     1.8 millions                     1.3 millions
Cable Subs.


 # of CATV                    11.2 millions                        12.2 millions                    5.0 millions                     1.9 millions
Home Passed

                              PrimaCom, UPC Media,                 Cablecom, B2, Noos,              Flextech, UKTV, SMG,             Multikabel, A-media,
 Major EU                     Priority Telecom, EWT,               Cablelink. Ieasy                 Eurobell                         EBH Antenne, Quick
 Holdings                     SBS Broadcasting,                    (eKabel), Diamond                                                 Net, Communikabel,
                              Chello broadband                     Cable                                                             Primacom Nederlands
 Source: Company Website, CSFB research
 (1) Based on share price of April, 29. 2002 and market share of debt


       There are 4 major publicly listed cable players in Europe, each with substantial financial
                                               problems.

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Cable Network Privatisation
          Overview EU Cable Privatisations                                                 Example Cable Privatisation in Germany
                                                                                         Largest cable market in Europe (~ 20MM Cable
                                                                                             households)
                                                                                         Core cable networks deployed and managed
                                                                                             historically managed by DT (cable deployed on
                                                                                             public land, “Level 2 & 3”)
                                                                                              Cable deployed on non-public land (“Level 4”)
                                                                                                   owned by several thousand smaller entities and
                                                                                                   few larger companies (e.g. Primacom, UPC)
                                                                                         In 2000/2001, DT sold majority stakes in three
                                                                                             regional companies to private investors. Plans to
                                                                                             sell the remaining 6 regions to Liberty Media were
                                                                                             blocked by the German cartel office in 2002
                                                                                         Attractiveness of DT cable assets impacted by
                                                                                             complicated industry structure
                                                                                              Separation of distribution levels
                                                                                              Limited control of digital spectrum
                   Private cable networks                                                     Operational and financial issues encountered
                   PSTN cable networks                                                             by investors who have purchased stakes in DT
                   Private/PSTN cable networks                                                     regional companies
Source: Kagan’s European Cable 2000


          Cable networks in selected major European countries are still owned by incumbent
                                              operator.


                                                                               36
Conclusion




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Conclusion
The European telecommunication market is continuing its rapid development, but there are
clear signs that financing and other constraints are actually working to reduce competition
Incumbents continue to enjoy first mover advantage in the roll-put of xDSL services in
some member states and benefit from reduced altnet competition
Telecom regulation will play an even bigger role going forward in ensuring workable
competition to the benefit of the consumer
This will also entail difficult decisions with respect to the regulation of incumbent operators
who themselves are under tremendous financial pressures
Harmonization across EU member states expected to lead to lowering competition in highly
liberal countries (e.g. Germany, UK) and increasing competition in less liberated countries
(e.g. Greece, Italy)




                                                               38
B Zeitlicher Abriss über den Privatisierungs- und Liberalisierungsprozess




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Postgeschichte
 Erste Einrichtung eines regelmäßigen Postdienstes in Deutschland um 1500

 1866/67 Abfindung der Turn und Taxis, staatliche preußische Post

 1880 Aufnahme des Fernsprechversuchsbetriebes in Berlin

 1909 Aufnahme des Postgirodienstes

 1936 Fern-Seh-Stube zu den olympischen Spielen

 1938 Beginn des Postsparens in Deutschland




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Postreform I
 1.7. 1989 Inkrafttreten des Poststrukturgesetzes

 1.1.1990 Bildung der drei öffentlichen Unternehmen POSTDIENST, POSTBANK, TELEKOM
  Neuorganisation des Bundesministeriums für Post und Telekommunikation
 Seit Sommer 1991 Diskussion über eine zweite Postreform, um eine Privatisierung der Öffentlichen
  Deutsche Bundespost-Unternehmen zu ermöglichen




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Postreform II, Hintergründe
 Technischer Fortschritt zu schnell für Verwaltungsstruktur

 Dem Bund als Eigentümer war es wegen der angespannten Haushaltslage nicht möglich,
  Eigenkapital zuzuführen
 Wettbewerbsdruck durch zunehmende Internationalisierung

 Lösung: Private Rechtsform, um über die Börse Eigenkapital zu beschaffen

 Privatisierung: Beschaffung privaten Kapitals

 Postbank: Angebot eines vollwertigen Bankdienstespektrums




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Postreform II (31.8.1994) A
 Grundgesetzänderung

 Postneuordnungsgesetz, enthält Gesetze zur/über
   die Träger der gesetzlichen Sozialversicherung im Bereich der früheren Deutschen Bundespost
   Umwandlung der Unternehmen der Deutschen Bundespost in die Rechtsform der
      Aktiengesellschaft
     Personalrecht der Beschäftigten der früheren Deutschen Bundespost
     Änderung des Gesetzes über Fernmeldeanlagen
     Änderung des Gesetzes über das Postwesen
     Die Regulierung der Telekommunikation und des Postwesens




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Postreform II (31.8.1994) B
 Postneuordnungsgesetz, enthält Gesetze zur/über
     Änderung des Telegraphenwegegesetzes
     Änderung des Gesetzes zur Vereinfachung des Planverfahrens für Fernmeldelinien
     Sicherstellung des Postwesens und der Telekommunikation
     Gesetz zur Errichtung einer Museumsstiftung "Post und Telekommunikation"




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Telekommunikationsgesetz
 Inkrafttreten 25.07.1996

 Liberalisierung des Mietleitungsmarktes und der
  Netze geschlossener Benutzergruppen
 Zum 01.01.1998 Wegfall des Sprachtelefondienstes, damit vollständige Marktöffnung in der
  Telekommunikation
 22.12.97 Postgesetz: Liberalisierung des Postmarktes, beschränkte gesetzliche Exklusivlizenz bis
  zum 31.12.2002




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Liberalisierung: Wichtigste Punkte
 Schrittweise Öffnung von mehr und mehr wohldefinierten Teilmärkten bis zur vollständigen
  Marktöffnung am 01.01.1998
 Sicherung der Interessen der Nutzer, Sicherstellung des Universaldienstes

 Klare Regulierungskompetenzen und klare Verpflichtungen der Betreiber beim Schutz öffentlicher
  Interessen (Sicherheit, Geheimhaltung, Datenschutz etc.)
 Klare und transparente Umsetzung des EU-Rechts und der GATS-Verpflichtungen




                                                                46
C Das Telekommunikationsgesetz und andere Gesetzliche
  Rahmenbedingungen




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Regulatorische Zuständigkeiten
   Telekommunikation: Netzinfrastruktur RegTP, Dienste RegTP
   Rundfunk: Netzinfrastruktur RegTP, Dien-ste/Programme Länder (Rundfstaatsvertr.)
   Teledienste (Datenkommunikationsdienste): Netzinfratruktur RegTP, Dienste/Program-me:
    Problem der Überregulierung




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Multimediagesetzgebung In Deutschland: Zielsetzung
   Ermöglichung von Multimedia durch Schaffung eines geeigneten Rechtsrahmens
   Beseitigung rechtlicher Unsicherheit im Interesse ungehinderter Marktentwicklung
   Durchgehendes Grundprinzip: Größtmögliches Ausmaß an Deregulierung
   Berücksichtigung des Schutzes v. Minderheiten u. des Verbraucherschutzes
   Erstes Multimediagesetz weltweit




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Rechtsrahmen Informations- u. Komm.Dienste: LUKDG
Bestandteile:
 Gesetz über die Nutzung von Telediensten (TDG)

 Gesetz über den Datenschutz bei Telediensten (TDDSG)

 Gesetz zur digitalen Signatur (SigG)

 Änderung bestehender Gesetze u. Verordnungen (StGB, OwiG, GüVjgS, UHRG, PagG, PagV)




                Gesetz zur Regelung d. Rahmenbedingungen f. Informations- und
                                   Kommunikationsdienste


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Rechtsrahmen Informations- u. Komm.Dienste: TDG
 Anmelde- und Zulassungsfreiheit v. Telediensten

 Verantwortlichkeit d. Anbieter für eigene Inhalte

 Keine Verantwortlichkeit für fremde Inhalte

 Verpflichtung zur Nutzungssperrung bei:
   Kenntnis d. rechtswidrigen Inhalts unter Wahrung d.Fernmeldegeheimnisses
   und: wenn Sperrung technisch möglich u. zumutbar




                             Gesetz über die Nutzung von Teledienst


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TKG
1 Regulierungsziele
2 Zuständigkeiten innerhalb der RegTP
3 Lizenzierung, Universaldienst, Entgeltregulierung, Wegerechte




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Regulierungsziele TKG
 Wahrung der Interessen der Nutzer

 Wahrung des Fernmeldegeheimnisses

 Sicherstellung des Wettbewerbs


   Chancengleich
   Funktionsfähig
   auch in der Fläche


 Flächendeckende Grundversorgung zu erschwinglichen Preisen

 Effiziente und störungsfreie Frequenznutzung




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Entscheidungen der Regulierungsbehörde -1-
 Lizenzierung (Telekommunikation und Post)

 Frequenzzuteilung

 Numerierung

 Wegerechte

 Zertifizierung

 Sicherheit und Datenschutz




                   Entscheidung durch Verwaltung (nach TKG + PostG)


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Entscheidungen der Regulierungsbehörde -2-
 Vergabe knapper Lizenzen / Frequenzen

 Auferlegung von Universaldienstleistungsverpflichtungen

 Entgeltregulierung

 besondere Mißbrauchaufsicht

 offener Netzzugang / Zusammenschaltung ("interconnection")

 Angebot von Teilleistungen, Zugang zu Postfachanlagen




                          Entscheidung durch Beschlusskammern


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Organigramm


                    Präsidenten-                                                      Präsident
                      kammer
                                                           Vizepräsident                               Vizepräsident


                     Beschluss-
Telekommunikation




                                   Regulierung                Regu-             Techni-              Informa-            Zentral-            Aussen-
                     kammer 2                                                                          tions-             abtei-              stellen
                                   Telekommu-                lierung              sche
                                     nikation                  Post             Regulie-              technik             lung
                     Beschluss-                                                   rung                  und
                     kammer 3                                                     Tele-               Sicher-
                                                                                kommu-                  heit
                                                                                nikation
                     Beschluss-
                     kammer 4


                     Beschluss-
Post




                     kammer 5

                                                 Bonn                           Mainz




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Lizenzierung -1-
Wer bedarf einer Lizenz?
 Derjenige, der
   Übertragungswege betreiben will, die die Grenze eines Grundstücks überschreiten und für TK-
     Dienstleistungen für die Öffentlichkeit genutzt werden
   Sprachtelefondienst auf der Basis selbst betriebener TK-Netze anbieten will


Wer bedarf einer Lizenz?
 Diensteanbieter, die selbst keine eigenen Netze betreiben

 Unternehmen, die Datendienste über angemietete Telekommuni-kationsleitungen anbieten

 Unternehmen, die Dienste nur für geschlossene Benutzergruppen anbieten




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Lizenzierung -2-
Wie erhält man eine Lizenz?
 Auf schriftlichen Antrag,
   Grundsatz: Rechtsanspruch auf Erteilung einer Lizenz, keine Beschränkung der Anzahl
 Ausnahmen:
   subjektiver Bereich:
     – wenn Tatsachen die Annahme rechtfertigen, daß Antragsteller nicht über die erforderliche
       Zuverlässigkeit, Leistungsfähigkeit und Fachkunde verfügt
   objektiver Bereich:
     – Regulierungsbehörde verfügt nicht über nutzbare Frequenzen für Antragsteller (§ 8 Abs. 3
       Nr. 1), z.B. sind
     – nicht in ausreichendem Umfang verfügbare Frequenzen entsprechend dem
       Frequenznutzungsplan vorhanden (§ 10)




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Lizenzierung -2-
   Mindestangeb. an TK-Dienstleistungen zu erschwingl. Preisen ist sicherzustellen
   Flächendeckend Sprachtelefondienst mit ISDN-Leistungsmerkmalen (Preisniveau vom
    31.12.97), Auskunft, Telefonbücher, Telefonzellen (Preis an Kosten d. eff. Bereitstellung
    orientiert), Übertragungswege (jeweils genehmigter Preis)
   Erbringung bislang im Wettbewerb, Verpflich-tung e. Unternehmens oder Ausschreibung der
    Leistung bislang nicht erforderlich




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Sektorspezifische Regulierung z. Wettbewerbsschaffung



              Netzzugang 33, 35
             Zusammenschaltung
                 § 37 (für alle)
                                                                                                      Wettbe-
 Monopol      Entgeltregulierung                                                                       werb
                 §§ 24, 25, 39
              Mißbrauchsaufsicht
                     § 33
      Kontinuierliche, unumkehrbare Entwicklung


            Regelungen für marktbeherrschende Unternehmen


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Offener Netzzugang Gem. TKG
   Verpflichtung f. marktbeherrschende Unternehmen, Zugang zu ihren Netzen einschließl.
    nachfragegerechten Zugangs zu einzelnen Netzelementen u. Diensten zu gewähren
   Durch Europarecht zwingend vorgegeben, Entbündelung geht über Europarecht hinaus
   Einschränkung nur bei Einschränkung der Netzintegrität, der Interoperabilität der Dienste oder
    des Datenschutzes
   Garantiert rasche Marktöffnung
   Verhindert Aufbau paralleler Infrastrukturen




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Netzzusammenschaltung Gem. TKG
   Verpflichtung für alle, auch nicht marktbeherrschende Netzbetreiber, anderen Netzbetreibern
    auf deren Nachfrage ein Angebot abzugeben
   Keine Einigung: Zusammenschaltungsanordnung nach Anrufung durch einen Beteiligten
    innerhalb maximal 10 Wochen
   Gemeinsame Anrufung zur Schlichtung mögl.
   Bei Einigung: Entgelte marktbeherrschender Unternehmen sind genehmigungspflichtig
   Ermöglicht Kommunikation aller Telefonkunden




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Engeltregulierung: Verfahren und Zweck
   Betrifft nur marktbeherrschende Unternehmen
   Sprachtelefondienst (z.B. Ortsgesprächsent-gelte), Übertragungswege (einschließlich
    Überlassung von Teilnehmeranschlußleitungen: Ex-ante Verfahren, übrige Telekommunikation
    (z.B. t-online-Entgelte): Ex-post Verfahren, nur auf Antrag
   Schafft ein Preis- und Anreizsystem, als ob bereits funktionsf. Wettbewerb herrschen würde
   Schafft Planungssicherheit




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Entgeltregulierung Gem. TKG
   Orientierung der Entgelte an den Kosten der effizienten Bereitstellung
   Antrag kann bei unvollständigen Unterlagen abgelehnt werden, ansonsten:
   Prüfung: langfristige zusätzliche Kosten der Leistungsbereitstellung plus angemessener
    Zuschlag für Gemeinkosten einschliesslich Kapitalverzinsung, soweit für Leistungserstellung
    notwendig
   zusätzlich Vergleichsmarktbetrachung
   ggf. sonstige sachlich gerechtfertigte Aufwendungen berücksichtigungsfähig




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Missbrauchsaufsicht Gem. TKG
   Verpflichtung für marktbeherrschende Unternehmen, diskriminierungsfrei Zugang zu allen intern
    genutzten und am Markt angebotenen Leistungen zu gewähren


       Soweit diese wesentlich sind
       Zu den Bedingungen, die es sich selbst bei der Nutzung dieser Leistungen einräumt


   Verhaltensauferlegung oder -untersagung durch RegTP
   Verträge können (auch teilweise) für unwirksam erklärt werden




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Wegerechte
   Unentgeltlichkeit d. Nutzung öffentlicher Wege und Plätze, Bund überträgt dieses Recht auf
    Lizenznehmer (§ 50 TKG), Zustimmung des Trägers d. Wegebaulast erforderlich
   Auch private Eigentümer können Errichtung, Betrieb u. Erneuerung von
    Telekommunikationslinien nicht verbieten, soweit das Grundstück dadurch nicht oder nicht
    wesentlich beeinträchtigt wird, Ausgleich in Geld nur bei neuen TK-Leitungen (einmalig) o. bei
    mehr als zumutbarer Beeinträchtitgung




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