DCCC NY-9 Tracker Memo by CelesteKatz


TO:               Interested Parties
FROM:             Global Strategy Group
RE:               NY 09 Tracking Survey Results
DATE:             September 2, 2011

If the upcoming special election for Congress in New York’s Ninth District was held today,
Democrat David Weprin would defeat Republican Bob Turner and hold the seat for his party,
according to our latest poll of 400 likely special election voters in the district. The poll was
conducted August 30-31, 2011 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

Weprin Leading and Nearing Majority Support
Democrat David Weprin currently leads Republican Bob Turner by an eight-point margin, 47%
to 39%, with 14% still undecided in the special election contest.

Weprin Ahead Despite Being Less Known
Turner is familiar to 66% of voters in the district thanks to his previous run for the seat, with 40%
rating him favorably and 26% unfavorably. Weprin is familiar to fewer voters (59%), with 35%
rating him favorably and 24% unfavorably.

District Prefers Democrat as Representative
By a wide, 14-point margin, voters here prefer a generic Democratic candidate for Congress
(46%) over a generic Republican candidate (32%).

Times Endorsement Catapults Weprin to Solid Win
After voters are informed about the New York Times endorsement in the race, Weprin’s support
increases by 10 points and his lead increases to 23 points over Turner, 57% to 34%. The
description read to voters: “As you may have seen, the New York Times endorsed David Weprin
in the special election, saying he would quote "represent the district with far more expertise,
sensitivity and fiscal rationality." The endorsement also noted that Weprin has "promoted
education and civil rights and fought to protect senior citizens," while Bob Turner's budget plan
would force a reduction in benefits for those on Social Security and Medicare”

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