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2010 The Outlook for Energy A View to 2030

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                                                                                                              Contents

                                                                                                                    The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030                                                                                                    2



                                                                                                                    Economic and energy evolution                                                                                                             4



                                                                                                                    Residential/commercial                                                                                                                   10



                                                                                                                    Transportation                                                                                                                           16



                                                                                                                    Industrial                                                                                                                               22



                                                                                                                    Power generation                                                                                                                         26



                                                                                                                    Greenhouse gas emissions                                                                                                                 32



                                                                                                                    Supply                                                                                                                                   38

nd by fuel
                                                                                                                      Biomass/
                                                                                                                      waste


                    ExxonMobil 2010 Outlook for Energy
                                                     renewables
                                                                                                                    Natural gas adapts to growing needs
                                                                                                                     Other

                                                                                                                      Hydro
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             44
                                                                                                                      Nuclear
                                                                                                     Average Annual Change

                                                                                                                                                                         XOM Energy Outlook
                                                        Energy Demand (Quadrillion BTUs)             1980-   2005-   2010-   Share of Total
                    Regions                      1980   1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030                2005    2030    2030    2005 2030
                                                                                                                                                 Glossary
                    World                        296    359     414    469    506     575    636     1.9%    1.2%
                                                                                                                      Coal
                                                                                                                     1.2%    100%    100%                             For: GCG
                                                                                                                                                 ExxonMobil’s Outlook for
                    OECD                         169    190     224    233    223     230    230     1.3%    0.0%    0.2%     50%     36%
                                                                                                                                                 Energy contains global
                                                                                                                                                                           Scott Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
                    Non OECD                     127    170     190    237    282     346    406     2.5%    2.2%    1.8%     50%     64%
                    North America                 87     95     114    116    111     113    113     1.2%    -0.1%   0.1%     25%     18%                                 File name:
                                                                                                                                                 projections for the period
                                                                                                                                                 2005-2030. In the Outlook,
                                                                                                                                                                                            52A 2010 XOMEO-EnergyEvolv.ai
                      United States               75     81     96     97     92      92     91      1.1%    -0.3%   0.0%     21%     14%
                    Latin America                 13     15     20     22     26      32     39      2.2%    2.4%    2.1%     5%      6%         we refer to standard units
                                                                                                                                                 for the measurement of
                                                                                                                                                                          Placed file(s):   None
                    Europe                        67     74     79     83     80      82     83      0.9%    0.0%    0.2%     18%     13%
                      European Union              63     68     72     76     73      73     73      0.7%    -0.1%   0.0%     16%     11%        energy:
                                                                                                                                                                         For page:          ??          Last updated: 12/16/2010
                    Russia/Caspian                46     57     38     41     40      42     45      -0.5%   0.4%     Gas
                                                                                                                     0.6%     9%      7%
                    Africa                        13     17     22     26     28      34     42      2.8%    2.0%    2.1%     5%      7%         BCFD. Billion cubic feet
                                                                                                                                                 per day. This is used to
                                                                                                                                                                          Updated by:       Carol Zuber-Mallison
                    Middle East                   8      11     18     23     29      36     42      4.3%    2.5%    2.0%     5%      7%
                                                                                                                                                                             ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics.com



                                                                                                                    Summary                                                                                                                                  52
                    Asia Pacific                   63     91     124    159    193     235    273     3.8%    2.2%    1.7%     34%     43%        measure volumes of natural
                      China                       23     33     44     69     92      114    132     4.4%    2.7%    1.8%     15%     21%        gas. One BCFD of natural                         (c) 2010 ExxonMobil
                      India                       8      13     19     22     28      35     45      3.9%    3.0%    2.4%     5%      7%         gas can heat approximately
                                                                                                                                                 5 million homes in the U.S.
                    World Energy by Type                                                                                                         for one year. Six BCFD ofUsage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
                    Primary                      296    359     414    469    506     575    636     1.9%    1.2%    1.2%    100%    100%        natural gas is equivalent to
                    Oil                          128    136     156    171    173     191    204     1.2%    0.7%    0.8%     36%     32%        about 1 MBDOE.
                    Gas
                    Coal
                                                  54
                                                  70
                                                         72
                                                         86
                                                                89
                                                                90
                                                                       101
                                                                       112
                                                                              112
                                                                              128
                                                                                      138
                                                                                      133
                                                                                             164
                                                                                             134
                                                                                                     2.5%
                                                                                                     1.9%
                                                                                                             2.0%
                                                                                                             0.7%
                                                                                                                      Oil
                                                                                                                     1.9%
                                                                                                                     0.2%
                                                                                                                              21%
                                                                                                                              24%
                                                                                                                                      26%
                                                                                                                                      21%        BTU. British Thermal Unit.
                    Nuclear                       7      21     27     29     28      38     50      5.6%    2.3%    2.9%     6%      8%         A BTU is a standard unit
                    Biomass/Waste                 29     36     41     44     47      48     48      1.6%    0.4%    0.1%     9%      8%         of energy that can be used
                    Hydro                         6       7      9     10     11      14     16      2.2%    2.0%    2.0%     2%      3%         to measure any type of
                    Other Renewables              0       1      3      3      7      13     20      8.0%    7.4%    5.8%     1%      3%         energy source. It takes
                                                                                                                                                 approximately 400,000
             1900   End Use Sectors – World    1950                                  2000              2030                                      BTUs per day to run the
                    Industrial                                                                                                                   average North American
                    Total                        124    138     148    169    185     206    227     1.2%    1.2%    1.0%    100%    100%        household.
                    Oil                           47     45     50     55     56      61     65      0.7%    0.7%    0.7%     33%     29%
                    Gas                           28     30     38     40     43      51     60      1.5%    1.6%    1.7%     24%     27%        Gigawatt (GW). A unit of
                                                                                                                                                                                Smil      Biomass/Other        Coal    Oil ex bio   Gas    Hydro   Nuclear
                    Coal                          27     29     25     32     38      38     35      0.8%    0.4%    -0.4%    19%     16%        electric power, a gigawatt     Sol + Wind + Geo + Bio
                    Electricity                   14     18     21     25     30      38     47      2.5%    2.5%    2.3%     15%     21%        is equal to 1 billion watts,
                    Other                         9      15     14     16     18      19     19      2.1%    0.7%    0.3%     10%     8%         or 1,000 megawatts.            "1800"    98.28        1.72    0       0            0      0       0



                                                                                                                    Data/glossary                                                                                                                            53
                                                                                                                                                 A 1-GW power plant
                                                                                                                                                                                          97.86        2.14    0       0            0      0       0
  100
                    Residential/Commercial                                                                                                       can meet the electricity
                    Total                         71     87     98     107    111     124    134     1.6%    0.9%    1.0%    100%    100%
                    Oil                           14     13     16     16     15      15     15      0.7%    -0.2%   0.0%     15%     11%
                                                                                                                                                 demand of approximately                  97.56        2.44    0       0            0      0       0
                                                                                                                                                 500,000 homes in the U.S.
                    Gas                           13     17     21     22     24      28     32      2.1%    1.4%    1.4%     21%     24%                                                 96.03        3.97    0       0            0      0       0
                    Biomass/Waste                 23     26     29     31     32      31     29      1.3%    -0.3%   -0.5%    29%    22%             MBDOE. Million barrels
                    Electricity                   10     16     23     27     30      39     49      4.0%    2.4%    2.5%     26%     37%            per day of oil-equivalent.           95.13        4.87    0       0            0      0       0
                    Other                         11     15      9     10     10      10      9      -0.6%   -0.2%   -0.2%    9%       7%            This term provides a
                                                                                                                                                                                "1850"    92.69        7.31    0       0            0      0       0
   80               Transportation
                    Total                         53     65     80     90     96      112    124     2.2%    1.3%    1.3%    100%    100%
                                                                                                                                                     standardized unit of
                                                                                                                                                     measure for different types          86.75        13.25   0       0            0      0       0
                                                                                                                                                     of energy sources (oil,
                    Oil                           51     64     79     88     92      106    115     2.2%    1.1%    1.1%     98%     93%
                                                                                                                                                     gas, coal, etc.) based on            80.83        19.11   0.06    0            0      0       0
                    Other                         2       1      1      2      4       6      9      1.3%    5.7%    3.8%     2%       7%
                                                                                                                                                     energy content relative to
                                                                                                                                                     a typical barrel of oil. One
                                                                                                                                                                                          72.87        26.67   0.35    0            0.12   0       0
                    Power Generation – World
                                                                                                                                                                                          62.55        36.17   0.83    0.31         0.13   0       0
   60
                                                                                                                                                     MBDOE is enough energy
                    Primary                       78    118     143    169    187     224    261     3.1%    1.7%    1.7%    100%    100%
                                                                                                                                                     to fuel about 3 percent of
                    Oil
                    Gas
                                                  17
                                                  13
                                                         15
                                                         24
                                                                12
                                                                30
                                                                       12
                                                                       38
                                                                               10
                                                                              44
                                                                                       9
                                                                                      58
                                                                                              9
                                                                                             70
                                                                                                     -1.3%
                                                                                                     4.2%
                                                                                                             -1.2%
                                                                                                             2.5%
                                                                                                                     -0.6%
                                                                                                                     2.4%
                                                                                                                              7%
                                                                                                                              22%
                                                                                                                                       3%
                                                                                                                                      27%
                                                                                                                                                     the vehicles on the world’s"1900"    50.51        47.34   1.49    0.53         0.14   0       0
                                                                                                                                                     roads today.
                    Coal                          34     48     61     76     87      93     97      3.3%    1.0%    0.6%     45%     37%                                                 40.91        55.43   2.54    0.91         0.21   0       0
                    Nuclear                       7      21     27     29     28      38     50      5.6%    2.3%    2.9%     17%     19%
                    Hydro                         6       7      9     10     11      14     16      2.2%    2.0%    2.0%     6%       6%                                                 38.66        54.74   4.95    1.3          0.36   0       0
                    Other Renewables              1       3      4      5      7      13     18      7.4%    5.2%    4.7%     3%       7%
                                                                                                                                                                                          36.41        51.04   8.85    3.04         0.66   0       0
   40               World                        7139
                                                        Electricity Demand (Terawatt Hours)
                                                        10136 13163 15657 17845 23061 28628          3.2%    2.4%    2.4%    100%    100%
                                                                                                                                                                                          32.06        51.43   11.78   3.88         0.85   0       0
                    Regions                     Energy-Related CO2 Emissions (Billion Metric Tons)                                                                              "1950"    26.81        45.05   19.46   7.48         1.19   0       0
                    World
                    OECD
                                                 18.6
                                                 11.0
                                                        21.3 23.5
                                                        11.3   12.7
                                                                     27.2
                                                                      13.2
                                                                            29.5
                                                                              12.4
                                                                                     32.5 34.6
                                                                                      12.0   11.0
                                                                                                     1.5%
                                                                                                     0.7%
                                                                                                             1.0%
                                                                                                             -0.7%
                                                                                                                     0.8%
                                                                                                                     -0.6%
                                                                                                                             100%
                                                                                                                              49%
                                                                                                                                     100%
                                                                                                                                     32%
                                                                                                                                                                                          21.96        38.14   27.14   11.05        1.7    0.02    0
                                                                                                                                                                                          10.96        25.12   43.03   18.6         1.82   0.41    0.07
   20
                    Non OECD                     7.6    10.0   10.7   14.0    17.2    20.6   23.6    2.5%    2.1%    1.6%     51%    68%

                                                                                                                                                                                          9.86         23.75   43.31   18.42        1.98   2.5     0.17
                                                                                                                                                                                          9.9          23.98   37.96   19.91        2.04   5.81    0.4
                                                                                                                                        The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 53
                                                                                                                                                                                "2000"    9.8          21.66   37.82   21.46        2.16   6.48    0.62

     0                                                                                                                                                                                    9.32         25.35   34.21   22.05        2.18   5.61    1.29

      1850                        1900                         1950                          2000 2030                                                                                    8.4          23.07   33.27   24.03        2.42   6.59    2.22

                                                   This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions                                              "2030"    7.55         21      32.09   25.73        2.59   7.9     3.14




                                                   (including economic conditions, energy demand and energy supply) could differ
                                                   materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources,
                                                   political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and
                                                   under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section
                                                   of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes
                                                   ExxonMobil’s internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and
                                                   analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including
                                                   the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be reproduced without the
                                                   permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.




                                                   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
                                                   2 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
Welcome to ExxonMobil’s The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030.
Energy enables economic growth and social progress in countries around the world.
Because of energy’s universal importance, it is essential that not only those of us in the energy industry, but
also leaders from across government, business and civil society – as well as consumers at large – understand
the fundamental realities that govern energy demand and supply worldwide, and the prospects for meeting our
shared economic and environmental goals.
ExxonMobil’s The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 offers our perspective on these realities and prospects.



The forecasts of global energy trends offered in this report are grounded in a fundamental fact: Demand for energy is tied to the human
desire for a better life.


By enabling people to become more productive – and expanding their opportunities – access to reliable, affordable energy can
transform people’s lives and the communities in which they live.


Energy also plays a key role in advancing social progress. Considering that 1.4 billion people worldwide lack access to electricity,
expanding access to modern energy will be essential to meeting global targets for reducing poverty and hunger, and improving health
and education.


As populations grow, economies expand and societies develop, demand for energy will continue to rise.
ExxonMobil sees global demand in 2030 about 35 percent higher than it was in 2005 – even with substantial
gains in efficiency.


Oil, natural gas and other forms of modern energy will continue to sustain economic growth and job
creation, and enable the widespread adoption of new energy-powered technologies in fields including
agriculture, medicine and computing.


Meeting this rising demand for energy – safely and with minimal environmental impact – is ExxonMobil’s
mission, and a key challenge facing governments and societies worldwide.


As the Outlook shows, success will depend on expanding access to economic energy
sources that meet a number of fundamental criteria: They must be widely available, reliable,
affordable, versatile and be produced and used responsibly. This will require the development
and application of new technologies; tremendous levels of investment in technology and
infrastructure; and international partnerships and cooperation. Together, these will enable the
world to expand its energy choices, improve efficiency and reduce emissions.


Prepared by a team of experts using both publicly available and proprietary information,
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 helps guide ExxonMobil’s global investment
decisions. We share it publicly to encourage broader understanding of energy issues.


I hope you find the Outlook informative, and that it helps answer your questions about many
of the realities and challenges – and solutions – that will shape our energy future.




Rex W. Tillerson
Chairman and CEO


                                                                                                         The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   1
The Outlook for Energy:
                  A View to 2030
In 2030, what types of energy will the world use, and how much? How will demand
patterns and sources of supply evolve in countries around the world? What will be the role
of new technologies in affecting the energy mix and overall energy efficiency? How much
progress will have been made in curbing energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions?


These are questions that ExxonMobil        OECD energy demand will be                 below that of OECD nations. Efficiency
sets out to answer in The Outlook for      essentially unchanged through 2030.        gains will not be enough to offset
Energy: A View to 2030. Updated each       The fundamental driver of this result      this growth in demand and thus, CO2
year, the Outlook analyzes the trends      is increased energy efficiency. And        emissions in Non OECD countries will
that will shape global energy supply and   efficiency, combined with a shift toward   continue to rise through 2030.
demand over the coming decades.            cleaner-burning fuels, will cause OECD
                                           emissions to decline substantially         Global energy demand up 35 percent.
As you will see in this year’s edition,    through 2030.                              ExxonMobil expects global energy
the answers are both encouraging and                                                  demand in 2030 to be about 35 percent
challenging – and vary greatly at a        Non OECD energy demand up                  higher than in 2005. Demand growth
country and regional level:                more than 70 percent.                      would be far higher – with 2030
                                           Among Non OECD countries, China            energy consumption nearly double
OECD energy demand flat.                   will lead a dramatic climb in energy       2005 levels – were it not for expected
The developed economies that belong        demand as the rising prosperity of its     improvements in energy efficiency.
to the Organization for Economic           large population is reflected in trends
Cooperation and Development (OECD)         such as increased vehicle ownership        We will need to continue to expand
will need energy to fuel continued         and higher electricity consumption.        all available energy sources to meet
economic recovery and growth. Yet,         Even so, by 2030 per-capita energy use     this substantial increase in demand.
even with that economic expansion,         in Non OECD countries still will be far    These sources must include oil, natural




2   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
                                                                                                              Enhanced satellite image
                                                                                                              of the earth at night




gas and coal, which by 2030 will                 • New technologies will continue              Meeting demand for energy – safely,
continue to meet about 80 percent of               to open up previously unreachable           and with concern for environmental
the world’s energy demand.                         supplies of natural gas, the cleanest-      impact – will continue to be a challenge
                                                   burning major fuel, enabling natural        on an enormous scale. Today, global
But just as energy and technology have             gas to overtake coal as the second-         demand averages the equivalent of
evolved dramatically over the past 200             largest global energy source.               16 billion British thermal units (BTUs)
years, the Outlook sees significant                                                            every single second. The scale of
changes continuing through 2030.                 • Modern renewable fuels – wind, solar        this challenge will grow bigger as
For example:                                       and biofuels – will expand significantly.   population increases and people seek
                                                   Coal will decline sharply in OECD           better living standards.
• By 2030, consumers will make                     countries, but continue to be the
  greater use of personal vehicles that            predominant fuel for power generation       Technology will continue to evolve and
  have significantly better fuel economy;          in Non OECD countries.                      play a key role in increasing efficiency,
  as a result, global demand for personal-                                                     expanding supplies and mitigating
  vehicle fuels will flatten and decline         • In all parts of the world, new energy-      emissions. These three elements must
  slightly by 2030 – the first decline in this     saving technologies will greatly            be pursued with vigor and constancy
  category in modern history. Demand               improve energy efficiency, curbing          of purpose in order to meet our global
  for commercial transportation, however,          growth in both demand and                   energy and environmental challenges.
  is rising sharply.                               emissions.




                                                                                                         The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   3
      Economic and energy evolution
      Many of the hallmarks of human progress – the        Throughout history, access to energy has helped individuals and
      improvements in how people live, work and stay   societies to advance by helping people to be more productive and
      safe and healthy – are enabled by energy. As     by expanding their opportunities.
                                                           Consider, for example, how long it might take to perform certain
      societies and technologies develop, people’s
                                                       tasks without modern technology and energy – activities such as
      energy usage will continue to evolve.




4   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
carrying wood by hand to meet daily energy needs, cooking by fire,         As societies advance, they will continue to need energy to
manufacturing commercial goods or plowing a field.                    power industry, transportation, electricity generation and other
    The tremendous rise in living standards over the past 100 years   vital services. The Outlook examines each of those demand
would not have been achieved without advanced technologies and        sectors in detail.
the modern energy supplies that enabled their widespread use.




                                                                                                   The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   5
        World population                                               By 2030, the world’s population will reach close to
        continues to expand
        Population growth continues to be one of the
        biggest factors behind rising energy demand.                                  8 billion,
                                                                        with 85 percent residing in Non OECD countries.




 F
                                                               Global population
     rom a base of about 1 billion people in 1800, the
 world’s population has continued to rise. Population
 expansion accelerated in the second half of the 20th
 century, as advances in medicine and other fields such
 as agriculture greatly influenced population trends,                                                                2030
 including child mortality.                                                                                          7.9 billion
                                    2030
                                    7.9 billion
 Today, the world’s population is approaching
 7 billion. By 2030, it will likely reach close to 8 billion
 people. Most of these people – close to 85 percent –                                                1950
                1950
 will live in Non OECD countries. We project that                                                    2.5 billion
                2.5 billion
 as personal incomes grow, the pace of population
 expansion will slow – a trend that has already
1800over the last 10 years.
emerged                                                                                 1800
980 million                                                                            980 million
 As the global population continues to rise and
 people around the world strive to improve their lives,
 ExxonMobil and many others recognize that energy
 will continue to play an essential role in development.


                                                                        Sources: United Nations and The World Bank

 6   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
                                                                                                                     XOM Energy Outlook
                                                                                                                     For: GCG
                                                                                                                          Scott Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
                                                                                                                          Rush hour in
                                                                                                                          New York City, USA




Energy sources                                                                  New technologies influence both

evolve over time                                                                     energy supply,
                                                         as new energy technologies enable access to new energy supplies,
Just as the world’s energy needs expand
and evolve over time, so do the types of                                              and demand,
energy used to meet those needs.                        as advances such as commercial aviation in the 1950s and personal
                                                              computers in the 1980s alter energy-demand patterns.




S
                                              Global gross domestic product                      Global demand by fuel
                                              Trillions of 2005 dollars                          Quadrillion BTUs
      tandards of living improved
                                               100                                               1800
dramatically over the past century, as
                                                                   By 2030, global
global economic output expanded rapidly.                           GDP is projected to
                                                                   be approximately
Fueling this growing prosperity was – and
                                                                   20 times the                  1500
continues to be – advanced technology           80
                                                                   level in 1950.
                                                                                                            By 2030, global energy
and access to energy. A century ago, fuels                                                                  demand is projected to be
like wood and coal were most prominent.                                                          1200       approximately six times
                                                                                                            the level in 1950, with an
Today, growing access to modern                 60                                                          increasingly diverse energy mix.
technologies continues to drive growing
demand for – and supplies of – oil and                                                            900
                                                                                                                                            Other
natural gas. Nuclear energy and, more                                                                                                       renewables
recently, renewable energies like wind,         40
                                                                                                                                                  Nuclear
solar and biofuels are also contributing                                                          600

more to the energy mix.                                                                                                                            Hydro
                                                                                                                                                   Gas
                                                20
Helping expand access to modern energy
and technology will remain critical to help
                                                                                                  300
                                                                                                                                                    100000
                                                                                                                                                   Oil


people prosper in the decades ahead, with                                                                                                          Coal
                                                 0
the mix of economical energy supplies                                                              0

                                                                                                                                                     80000
                                                                                                                                                   Biomass/
                                                        1950                1990          2030          1950             1990              2030 waste
continuing to evolve.
                                                 Source: Maddison, The World Economy:              Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil
                                                 The Millennial Perspective; ExxonMobil

                                                                                                               The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030        7

                                                                                                                                                     60000
B         esides population, the other major
influence on energy demand is economic
                                                         look at the breakdown between OECD
                                                         and Non OECD countries, because the
                                                                                                             have more mature economies and well-
                                                                                                             developed patterns of energy use. Non
growth. While energy efficiency can – and                trends in those two groups are starkly              OECD countries, because they are not
will – continue to play a powerful role                  different. For example, through 2030,               as economically advanced, have very
in curbing growth in energy demand, in                   energy demand in OECD countries will                different energy-use patterns.
general, as economic output increases                    change little; but demand in Non OECD
and living standards rise, so does                       countries will rise by more than 70 percent,        It is also important to remember that
demand for energy.                                       led by China and India.                             population in these two groups is nowhere
                                                                                                             near equal. About 5.5 billion people live in
ExxonMobil sees global energy demand                     But first, a note: Dividing the world’s             Non OECD countries, compared to
rising steadily. By 2030, we project global              nations into two groups – those                     1.2 billion in OECD countries.
energy demand to be about 35 percent                     who are, and are not, part of the
higher than it was in 2005.                              Organization for Economic Cooperation
                                                         and Development (OECD) – is useful for
But that 35 percent increase doesn’t tell                studying energy trends. This is because
the whole story. For that, we need to                    the members of the OECD generally




         Global economies                                                                               China and India
                                                                                         are fast-growing economies, each with average
         grow through 2030
                                                                                                   6 percent
                                                                                                      annual GDP growth of
         Economic growth, particularly in Non OECD
         countries, will drive energy demand higher
         through 2030.
                                                                                                             from today to 2030.



                                                                                                             T
GDP                                                                    GDP growth 2005-2030
Trillions of 2005 dollars                                              Trillions of 2005 dollars
                                                                                                                  hrough 2030, the global economy
 100                                                                     25
                                                                                                             will continue to expand, but growth will be
                                                                                                             fastest in Non OECD countries.          XOM Ener
                                                                                                                                                     For: GCG
                                      Other
                                                                                                                                     XOM Energy Outlook Scott Turn
                                                                                                                                          For: GCG                            0
                                                                                                                                                                       File name:
    80                                Africa                             20                                  ExxonMobil expects OECD economies,Brian Wilburn 817-332-46
                                                                                                                                       Scott Turner/
                                Middle East                                                                                                                                   N
                                                                                                                                                                       Placed file(s):
                                                                Non                                                                    File name:
                                                                                                             as measured by GDP, to expand at about    08A 2010 XOMEO-En
                              Latin America                                                                                                                     For page:     ?
                                                                OECD                  Other          Other                             Placed file(s): None
                                       India                                                                 2 percent a year on average, as the United         Updated by: C
                                                                                                                                       For page:       ??           Last update
                                                                                                             States and others continue on the path              ZM GRAPHIC
    60                                                                   15                                                            Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
                                                      China                                                  to economic recovery and growth. GDP• 214-906-4162 • carol@
                                                                                                                                       ZM GRAPHICS
                                                                                                                                                                        Usage: Unlimited
                                                                                                                                                                 (c) 2010 ExxonMobil
                                                                                                             growth in Non OECD economies, however,
                                                                                                                                          Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
                                                      Other                                                  is projected to be almost 5 percent per year.
    40                                                                   10

                                                                                                             Because of this faster growth, Non OECD
                                                     Europe                           United         China             will account OECD Other OECD China
                                                                                                             countriesUnited States Europefor an increasing             India
                                                                                                                                                                               2500
                                                                                                                                                                                  La
                                                                OECD
                                                                                      States                 “1/1/80”    5914.72  8414.39  4140.1   216.88              195.02           11
    20                                                                    5
                                                                                                             share
                                                                                                             “1/1/81” of global economic output,
                                                                                                                         6059.67  8411.87  4296.25  226.6               207.76           10
                                                                                                             “1/1/82”    5936.93  8483.29  4365.49  245.29              215.62           10
                                                                                                                                           world
                                                                                                             approaching 40 percent of 4446.03 GDP
                                                                                                             “1/1/83”    6193.99  8639.29           270.91              231.63           10
                                                                                                             in 2030. And, as a8855.79 Non OECD
                                                                                                             “1/1/84”
                                                                                                             “1/1/85”
                                                                                                                         6644.03
                                                                                                                         6899.77
                                                                                                                                   result, 4646.45
                                                                                                                                  9101.86  4849.47
                                                                                                                                                    310.35
                                                                                                                                                    360.66
                                                                                                                                                                        240.15
                                                                                                                                                                        253.29
                                                                                                                                                                               2000      11
                                                                                                                                                                                         11
                                               United States
                                                                                                                          will
                                                                                                             countries7135.47account for an increasing
                                                                                                             “1/1/86”             9375.43  4978.32  392.63              265.62           12
     0                                                                                                       “1/1/87”    7377.93  9643.51  5200.49  438.05              278.29           12
                                                                                                             share
                                                                                                             “1/1/88” of energy demand. 5502.31
                                                                          0
                                                                                                                         7685.8   10021.2           487.41              305.91           12
         1980                  2005                      2030                  OECD           Non OECD       “1/1/89”    7955.41  10346.7  5765.13  507.24              325              12
                                                                                                             “1/1/90”
                                                                                                             “1/1/91”
                                                                                                                         8095.53
                                                                                                                         8057.51
                                                                                                                                  10625.8
                                                                                                                                  10915.8
                                                                                                                                           6027.49
                                                                                                                                           6185.43
                                                                                                                                                    526.67
                                                                                                                                                    575.1
                                                                                                                                                                        343.09
                                                                                                                                                                        346.74
                                                                                                                                                                               1500      12
                                                                                                                                                                                         12
                                                                                                             “1/1/92”    8303.23  11044.5  6289.08  656.99              363.14           13
8    exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook                                                                            “1/1/93”    8523.6   11033.5  6388.1   748.97              381.18           13
                                                                                                             “1/1/94”    8867.68  11317.1  6561.84  847.08              409.16           14
                                                                                                             “1/1/95”    9107.11  11620.5  6696.18  939.42              440.26           14
W
                                                 Energy use per capita                                    GDP per capita
                                                 Million BTUs                                             Thousands of 2005 dollars
         e expect that economic and
                                                  200                                                      50
population growth will not always                                                                                                                  XOM Energy Outlo
                                                                                                                                                   For: GCG
translate into higher energy demand, as           175                                                                                                   Scott Turner/ Brian Wilb

illustrated by our outlook for OECD nations,                                                                                                       File name:        09A 2010 X
                                                                                                           40
                                                                                                                                                   Placed file(s):   None
where energy use will stay essentially flat       150
                                                                      By 2030, China’s energy                                                       grows
                                                                                                                                     Per-capita GDPFor page:         ??
through 2030 even as populations grow                                 use per capita still will be                                   worldwide – by
                                                  125                 only about 50 percent                                                        Updated by:
                                                                                                                                     50 percent in OECD,             Carol Zub
and economies expand by more than                                     of that in OECD.                     30
                                                                                                                                     5 times in China, GRAPHICS • 214-906
                                                                                                                                                     ZM
                                                                                                                                                                    (c) 2010
60 percent. This is possible because the          100
                                                                                                                                     3.5 times in India.
                                                                                                                                                    Usage: Unlimited within ExxonM
OECD’s rising energy needs through 2030
                                                                                                           20
can be offset by ongoing efficiency gains.         75

We expect these gains will be stimulated
                                                   50
in part by government policies that seek
                                                                                                           10
to address the risks of climate change by
                                                   25
imposing a cost on CO2 emissions.
                                                   0                                                        0

Non OECD countries will also see                          2005 2030      2005 2030            2005 2030            2005 2030        2005 2030       2005 2030

significant improvements to efficiency.
                                                            OECD           China                 India               OECD             China
                                                                                                                                                    200India




China leads                                                                                                          150
                                                                           China and the U.S. together contribute about
demand growth
Rising prosperity in Non OECD countries
is the largest influence on energy trends
                                                                               40 percent                                                           100
                                         DATA AS OF 10/04/2010of global GDP growth through 2030,
                                                                              DATA AS OF 10/04/2010
through 2030.
                                                           "1980
                                                                          when they will be the leading global economies.
                                                                               "2030"                     "1980"      "2030"
                                                OECD          196.567                  179.185              OECD           30.1601                   50
                                                                                                                                                     45.0995
                                                China          52.5                      89.46              China           1.72                          8.27
                                                India          19.72                     31.72              India           0.74                          2.62
But rapid economic expansion, especially         OECD energy demand                                       Non OECD energy demand
in China, will outpace these gains. By            Quadrillion BTUs
                                                Note: Powerpoint page has label of                          Note: Powerpoint page has label of
                                                                                                          Quadrillion BTUs                            0
2030, energy demand in Non OECD                 “2005” but data used in chart program                       “2005” but data used in chart program               OECD           Ch
                                                to 450 the chart was labeled “1980”
                                                   drive                                                   450 drive the chart was labeled “1980”
                                                                                                            to
countries will be about 75 percent higher
than OECD demand.                                 400                                                      400      By 2030, energy demand in
                                                                                                                    Non OECD countries will be
                                                                                                                    about 75 percent
And yet, because the population of the            350
                                                                  Because of gains in                      350      higher than OECD demand.
                                                                  efficiency, OECD will be
Non OECD is nearly five times bigger                              essentially flat, even as
than OECD, there still will be a large            300             GDP rises more than                      300                                        Other
                                                                  60 percent.
imbalance in terms of the energy used –
both directly and indirectly – by citizens in     250                                                      250
                                                                                                                                                      Africa
those countries. Even by 2030, per-capita
                                                                                                           200
                                                                                                                                                     Middle
                                                  200
energy use in China will be only one-half                                                 Other                                                       East
the level of the OECD.                                                                                                                               Latin
                                                                                                                                                    America
                                                  150                                                      150

                                                                                     Europe OECD                                                      India
As our world continues to find ways to
                                                  100                                                      100
use energy more efficiently – in homes,
vehicles and industry – ExxonMobil                                                                          50
                                                                                                                                                      China
                                                   50
expects that it will take relatively less                                             United States

energy per capita to produce the                    0                                                        0
equivalent growth in per-capita GDP.                    1980               2005                    2030          1980                 2005                 2030




                                                                                                                        The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030       9
         Residential/commercial
                                    From a simple wood fire to modern appliances for refrigeration, cooking, heating
                                    and cooling, the evolution of energy begins at home. Through 2030, more homes
                                    and businesses will need energy, but the fuels they use will grow cleaner, more
                                    diverse and more efficient.




                                                                                                          Residential neighborhood in
                                                                                                          Shanghai, China




10   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook                                                                     The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   11
D
                                               Residential demand changes                                    Commercial demand changes
                                               Quadrillion BTUs                                              Quadrillion BTUs
        emand in the residential and
                                                140                                                          140
                                                      By 2030, the world
commercial sectors is expected to grow                will have about                                                 By 2030, economic growth
substantially over the period covered by              880 million                                                     would raise demand in the
                                                120                                                          120
                                                      more households.                                                commercial subsector to
this Outlook for Energy.                              By itself, this would                                           about 50 quads.
                                                      cause demand to
                                                100   rise to about                                          100
Residential demand, the larger of these               120 quads.
                                                                                                                                                   But efficiency
two sectors, is seen rising by more                                                                                                                gains will
                                                 80                                     But improved          80
than 20 percent from 2005 to 2030.                                                      efficiency will                                            limit growth
                                                                                        offset almost                                              to only about
This includes energy used directly in                                                   60 percent                                                 10 quads.
                                                 60                                                           60
the home, such as fuels for heating                                                     of this demand
                                                                                        growth.
and cooking, as well as electricity for                                                                                                                           140
                                                 40                                                           40
things like lighting, appliances and air
conditioning. Most of this growth will                                                                                                                            120
                                                 20                                                           20
occur in Non OECD countries.

                                                 0                                                             0
                                                                                                                                                                  100
                                                                      2005      2030                                              2005      2030
                                                                                                                                                                    80


                                                                                                                                                                    60
      Residential/commercial
      energy demand rises
      Demand for energy for homes and businesses will Energy Outlook
                                                     XOM
                                                                                          Almost             90 percent
                                                                                                              Scott Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
                                                                                                                                   20
                                                                                                                                                      40
                                                                                                                                         XOM Energy Outlook
                                                                                                                                         For: GCG


                                                                         of growth
      expand substantially through 2030, driven mostly by the Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600 in households will occur in
                                                     For: GCG                                           File name:      12B 2010 XOMEO-Comm
                                                           Scott Turner/
                                                                                                        Placed file(s): None
                                                                                   Non OECD countries. ?? 0 Last updated: 1
      addition of hundreds of millions of new households, but 12A 2010 XOMEO-ResElecChanges.ai
                                                     File name:
                                                                                                        For page:
      also by rising living standards and economic growth. None
                                                     Placed file(s):
                                                                                                        Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
                                                                                                                                                     res
                                                                For page:      ??          Last updated: 12/07/2010                       ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgr
                                                                Updated by:    Carol Zuber-Mallison                                                             (c) 2010 ExxonMobil

                                                                  ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics.com
                                                                                                                                         Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
                                                                                       (c) 2010 ExxonMobil
In general, as the number of households        Similar patterns are expected in the
                                                                Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
increases, residential energy demand           commercial energy sector, which
                                                                                                                     Global energy demand
rises. However, ongoing improvements           represents energy used in office buildings,
to energy efficiency – everything from         stores and other non-industrial businesses.
                                                                                                                   for homes and businesses
                                                                                                                            will rise




                                                                                                                    25
improved building insulation to more           Efficiency gains are expected to cut
energy-efficient lighting and appliances –     demand growth in this sector by more
help mitigate demand growth.                   than 55 percent through 2030.


Efficiency is a powerful energy saver.         Despite these efficiency gains, the world
By 2030, there will be about 2.6 billion
households in the world, up nearly
900 million from 2005.
                                               will see a tremendous rise in demand
                                               for electricity for residential/commercial
                                               purposes through 2030, when electricity
                                                                                                                   percent
                                               will meet more than 35 percent of
                                                                                                                      from 2005 to 2030.
On their own, these additional households      demand in this sector.                                               Nearly all of this growth
would increase global residential energy                                                                            will occur in Non OECD
demand by about 50 percent. But                In addition, there will be strong growth                                    countries.
because of expected gains in efficiency        in the direct use of natural gas as a
in both OECD and Non OECD countries,           residential/commercial energy source,
from 2005 to 2030 global residential           displacing coal, oil and traditional biomass
demand is projected to grow by less            fuels such as wood and dung for heating
than half that amount.                         and cooking.


12   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
   Despite ongoing progress,
          today about

       1.4
     billion
  people – 20 percent of the
world’s population – lack access
    to electricity, and about

      2.7
     billion
  people – 40 percent of the
world’s population – lack access
   to modern cooking fuels.




          Preparing a meal,
          Han Thao Village, Vietnam




      The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   13
D           emand in the residential/
commercial sector is met by a diverse
                                                         where electricity is displacing oil, by
                                                         2030 electricity will make up nearly
                                                                                                                      often dangerous to use indoors.


array of fuels.                                          50 percent of the residential/commercial                     Biomass, which had about a 50 percent
                                                         picture, up from about 40 percent in 2005.                   share of the Non OECD residential/
Although the mix of fuels varies greatly                                                                              commercial sector in 2005, will decline
by region and economic progress, these                   In Non OECD countries, electricity demand                    to just above 30 percent by 2030, as
differences are expected to shrink over                  is also growing rapidly, as is natural gas.                  more of the world’s population switches
time as Non OECD countries shift away                    Together, these two are benefiting from                      to modern energy for lighting, heating
from traditional biomass fuels, as OECD                  a dramatic shift toward cleaner sources                      and cooking.
countries did over the course of the 19th                of energy for residential and commercial
and 20th centuries.                                      needs in Non OECD countries.                                 Still, the International Energy Agency
                                                                                                                      has estimated that by 2030, premature
No matter where you are in the world,                    The shift is positive for human and                          deaths from household air pollution from
however, one trend holds true: Electricity               social development; traditional biomass                      the use of biomass will be higher than
demand for homes and businesses is                       fuels – specifically wood and dung – are                     deaths from malaria, tuberculosis or
growing fast. In the OECD countries,                     inefficient, harmful to air quality and                      HIV/AIDS.




          Residential/commercial                                                                      By 2030, global electricity use will be more than
          fuel supplies evolve
          The widespread use of traditional biomass fuels, particularly
          in the home, is just one example of how Non OECD countries
                                                                                                               35 percent
                                                                                                      of residential/commercial energy
          such as China and India are at a different stage of energy
          development compared to countries in the OECD.                                          consumption, up from about 25 percent in 2005.


Residential/commercial demand by fuel
                                                                                                                           XOM Energy Outlook Bio
                                                                                                                             Year          Oil         Coal               Sol      Gas      Heat Year
OECD, percent                                            Non OECD, percent                                             Global, quadrillion BTUs
                                                                                                                           For: GCG                    8.47      5.02
                                                                                                                             “1/1/80” 30.39 Wilburn 817-332-46000.06
                                                                                                                                 Scott Turner/ Brian
                                                                                                                                                                                   30.78    2.03 “1/1
100                                                      100                                                            160 “1/1/81” 28.58             8.51      5.25     0.06     30.96    2.13 “1/1
                                                                                                                           File name:      14B 2010 XOMEO-nonOECDfuels.ai
                                                                                                                                Globally, 26.68
                                                                                                                             “1/1/82” gas and electricity 5.35
                                                                                                                                                       8.83               0.06     31.47    2.18 “1/1
                                                                                                                           Placed file(s): None
                                                                                                                                meet about 60
                                                                                                                             “1/1/83” 26.34 percent 5.45
                  The composition of fuels used                                                                                                        8.48               0.08     30.71    2.57 “1/1
                  in the residential/commercial                                                                         140For page:       ??
                                                                                                                                of residential/commercial Last updated:0.08 12/16/2010
                                                                                                                             “1/1/84” 26.19            8.37      5.37              30.88    2.54 “1/1
                  sector is shifting sharply –               XOM Energy Outlook                                                                                                            XOM E
                                                                                                                                demand 2030, from
                                                                                                                             “1/1/85” inCarol up8.69
                                                                                                                           Updated by: 25.31 Zuber-Mallison 0.08 5.41              30.7     2.69 “1/1
 80               toward electricity.                     80 For: GCG                                                           about 45 percent in 2005.carol@zmgraphics.com              For: GCG
                                                                   Scott Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600                 ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 •5.24
                                                                                                                             “1/1/86” 25.44            8.61               0.11     30.08    2.66 Scot
                                                                                                                                                                                                 “1/1
                                                                                                                                                   (c) 2010 ExxonMobil
                                                             File name:      14A 2010 XOMEO-OECDfuels.ai 120 “1/1/87” 24.59                            8.65      5.24     0.1      30.1     2.69 “1/1
                                                                                                                                                                                           File name

                                                             Placed file(s): None                                            “1/1/88” 24.28            8.06
                                                                                                                           Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil    5.03     0.1      30.74    2.52 “1/1
                                                                                                                                                                                           Placed file
                                                                                                                             “1/1/89” 23.04            7.2       5.55     0.13     31.36    2.53 “1/1
                                                             For page: Non??  OECD countries    Last updated: 12/16/2010                                                                   For page:
                                                                                                                        100 “1/1/90” 22.88             6.16         Electricity
                                                                                                                                                                 5.05     0.26     31.16    2.56 “1/1
 60                                                       60 Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
                                                                         are shifting away from                                                                                            Updated b
                                                                                                                             “1/1/91” 22.57            5.35      5.22     0.25     32.25    2.59 “1/1
                                                                         traditional biomass
                                                              ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics.com                                                                             ZM GRA
                                                                                                                             “1/1/92” 22.98            4.21      5.39     0.25     32.62    2.66 “1/1
                                                                         fuels – such as wood
                                                                                     (c) 2010 ExxonMobil
                                                                         and dung – in favor of                          80 “1/1/93” 22.84             3.87      5.57    Heat
                                                                                                                                                                          0.24     32.92    2.61 “1/1
                                                             Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil                                                                                            Usage: Un
                                                                         electricity and                                     “1/1/94” 22.29            3.13      5.47     0.24     33.05    2.72 “1/1
 40                                                       40             natural gas.                                        “1/1/95” 22.2             2.72      5.44     Gas
                                                                                                                                                                          0.26     33.46    2.72 “1/1
                                                                                                                         60 “1/1/96” 21.92             2.53      5.24     0.24     34.66    2.75 “1/1
                                                                                                                             “1/1/97” 21.55            2.38      5.07   Solar
                                                                                                                                                                          0.25     34.14    2.67 “1/1
                                                                                                                             “1/1/98” 20.99            1.86      5.29     0.27     33.4        160
                                                                                                                                                                                            2.72 “1/1
                                                                                                                         40 “1/1/99” 20.69             1.71      5.07     0.42     33.61    2.8“1/1
 20                                                       20                                                                 “1/1/00” 20.36            1.47 Biomass/waste
                                                                                                                                                                 5.07     0.44     33.68    2.45 “1/1
                                                                                                                             “1/1/01” 20.67            1.4       4.83     0.43
                                                                                                                                                                         Coal
                                                                                                                                                                                   33.16       140
                                                                                                                                                                                            2.63 “1/1
                                                                                                                         20 “1/1/02” 19.82             1.31      4.62     0.45     33.5     2.52 “1/1
                                                                                                                             “1/1/03” 19.26            1.25      4.88     0.44     33.97    2.49 “1/1
                                                                                                                             “1/1/04” 18.62            1.36      4.83     0.43
                                                                                                                                                                            Oil
                                                                                                                                                                                   33.72       120
                                                                                                                                                                                            2.7“1/1
     0                                                     0                                                              0 “1/1/05” 17.93             1.29      4.92     0.45     33.31    2.84 “1/1
           1980                 2005              2030           1980                    2005                 2030
                                                                                                                             “1/1/06” 16.86
                                                                                                                                1980
                                                                                                                                                       1.4
                                                                                                                                                        2005
                                                                                                                                                                 4.98     0.48
                                                                                                                                                                            2030
                                                                                                                                                                                   32.65    2.94 “1/1
                                                                                                                             “1/1/07” 15.34            1.33      5.06     0.53     33.28       100
                                                                                                                                                                                            2.9“1/1
                                                                                                                             “1/1/08” 15.44            1.35      5.19     0.54     33.8     2.89 “1/1

14       exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook                         100                                                            “1/1/09” 15.13
                                                                                                                             “1/1/10” 14.65
                                                                                                                                                       1.34
                                                                                                                                                       1.36
                                                                                                                                                                 5.34
                                                                                                                                                                 5.29
                                                                                                                                                                          0.55
                                                                                                                                                                          0.6
                                                                                                                                                                                   33.83
                                                                                                                                                                                   34.5
                                                                                                                                                                                            2.89
                                                                                                                                                                                            2.92
                                                                                                                                                                                                 “1/1
                                                                                                                                                                                                80
                                                                                                               Elec
                                                                                                                                                                                                 “1/1
                                    100
                                                                                                                             “1/1/11” 14.32            1.32      5.23     0.68     34.31    2.91 “1/1
                                                                                                               Fujian Chemical Plant in
                                                                                                               Fujian Province, China




Petrochemicals: Enabling efficiency for consumers

Innovations in the chemicals industry play an important role        Packaging is another key area. Stronger-yet-lighter products
in meeting the world’s energy and environmental challenges.         reduce packaging material and shipping weights, requiring less
Through lightweight plastics and other products that enable         energy for transportation. Also, plastic packaging lengthens the
consumers to use energy more efficiently, ExxonMobil is helping     shelf life of food products, minimizing waste and thereby lowering
reduce emissions associated with energy use.                        transportation costs.


In fact, a recent study – industry-commissioned and independently   Because transportation accounts for about half of the world’s
validated – concluded that for every unit of greenhouse gas (GHG)   daily oil consumption, finding more efficient ways to move people
emitted by the chemical industry during production, more than       and goods is important. But petrochemicals contribute in many
two units of GHGs are saved by society through the use of           other areas; for example, synthetic lubricants enable industrial
products and technologies enabled by our industry.                  equipment – everything from machinery for paper manufacturing
                                                                    to wind-power turbines – to operate more efficiently.
As a leader in the global petrochemical industry, ExxonMobil is
focused on providing value and improving the efficiency of our      We continue to curb our own emissions by reducing material
customers throughout the supply chain.                              and energy use in our manufacturing operations.


A major focus is on vehicles. ExxonMobil develops strong,           As this Outlook shows, better efficiency will be one of the most
lightweight plastics for car parts that reduce vehicle weight to    powerful tools through 2030, reducing global energy demand
improve fuel economy, curb emissions and lower manufacturing        growth and associated emissions by about 65 percent. Part
costs. We also developed a polymer that keeps tires properly        of these savings will come from advanced plastics and other
inflated longer, reducing fuel consumption.                         products made from petrochemicals.




                                                                                                     The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   15
         Transportation
                                    Modern transportation facilitates both economic activity and individual opportunity.
                                    Through 2030, rising demand for transportation fuels is led by trucking, aviation and
                                    marine requirements, and by a surge in the number of personal vehicles in Asia.




                                                                                                                    Traffic in Central
                                                                                                                    Bangkok, Thailand




16   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook                                                                       The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   17
Transportation demand by region
Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day
North America                                                        Europe                                                                           Asia Pacific
  20                                                                    20                                                                              20
                                                                                                                                                                    In Asia Pacific,
                                                                                                                                                                    transportation
                                                                                                                                                                    demand will nearly                                      Marine
                                                                                                                                                                    double from
  15                                                                    15                                                                              15          2005 to 2030.

                                                                 Light duty vehicle demand will decline                                                                                                                     Aviation
                                                                 by about 20 percent in North
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Rail
                                                                 America and by one-third in Europe.
  10                                                                    10                                                                              10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Heavy duty



     5                                                                   5                                                                               5



                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Light duty


     0                                                                   0                                                                               0

         1980                 2005                    2030                     1980                    2005                          2030                    1980                   2005                    2030




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 XOM Energy Outlook
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 For: GCG


          Transportation fuels                                                                                         1.2 billion light duty vehicles
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Scott Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-
 20000
                                                                       20000
                                                              TranMarine                                                                             20000                                                       File name:          018A 2010 XOMEO

          to see rising demand                                                                                                              TranMarine
                                                                                                                                       will be on the world’s roads by 2030,                                     Placed file(s):
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  TranMarine         None

                                                                                                                       400 million more than today.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 For page:           ??          Last upd

 15000
          Globally, transportation-related energy demand will
                                        TranAir
                                                                                                                                            TranAir                                                              Updated by:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  TranAir
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Carol Zuber-Malliso
          rise by nearly 40 percent from 2005 to 2030, the
                                                  15000                                                                    However, as the fuel economy of new vehicles
                                                                                                                                          15000                                    (c) 2010 ExxonMobil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • caro


          result of increased economic activity and rising
                                        TranOther
                                                                                                                         improves, global light duty demand will flatten within ExxonMobil
                                                                                                                                TranOther                         Usage: Unlimited
                                                                                                                                                                   TranOther
          incomes, particularly in the Asia Pacific region.                                                                         and decline slightly by 2030.
 10000                                                        TranRoadHeavy
                                                                       10000                                                                TranRoadHeavy
                                                                                                                                                     10000                                                           TranRoadHeavy




T
                                                              TranRoadLight
                                                                                                                                            TranRoadLight
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     TranRoadLight
  5000
          ransportation – covering the vehicles                         5000In   North America and Europe, however, 5000                                            hybrids and other advanced vehicles.
that move people and goods by land, sea,                                      where vehicle ownership already is very                                               (For more detail, see page 20.)
rail and air – is the second-fastest-growing                                  high, better fuel economy will have a more
    0 demand sector through 2030,
global “1/1/85”“1/1/92”“1/1/99”“1/1/06”“1/1/13”“1/1/20”
           “1/1/86”“1/1/93”“1/1/00”“1/1/07”“1/1/14”“1/1/25”
        “1/1/84”“1/1/91”“1/1/98”“1/1/05”“1/1/12”“1/1/19”
   “1/1/80”“1/1/87”“1/1/94”“1/1/01”“1/1/08”“1/1/15”“1/1/30”
    “1/1/81”“1/1/88”“1/1/95”“1/1/02”“1/1/09”“1/1/16”
     “1/1/82”“1/1/89”“1/1/96”“1/1/03”“1/1/10”“1/1/17”
       “1/1/83”“1/1/90”“1/1/97”“1/1/04”“1/1/11”“1/1/18”                    0
                                                                              noticeable effect on demand. Energy                                                   But personal vehicles are only one part
                                                                          “1/1/80”“1/1/87”“1/1/94”“1/1/01”“1/1/08”“1/1/15”“1/1/30”
                                                                           “1/1/81”“1/1/88”“1/1/95”“1/1/02”“1/1/09”“1/1/16”
                                                                            “1/1/82”“1/1/89”“1/1/96”“1/1/03”“1/1/10”“1/1/17”
                                                                              “1/1/83”“1/1/90”“1/1/97”“1/1/04”“1/1/11”“1/1/18”
                                                                               “1/1/84”“1/1/91”“1/1/98”“1/1/05”“1/1/12”“1/1/19”
                                                                                “1/1/85”“1/1/92”“1/1/99”“1/1/06”“1/1/13”“1/1/20”
                                                                                  “1/1/86”“1/1/93”“1/1/00”“1/1/07”“1/1/14”“1/1/25”                        0
behind power generation.                                                      demand for light duty vehicles in North                                      “1/1/82”of“1/1/92”“1/1/99”“1/1/06”“1/1/13”“1/1/20”
                                                                                                                                                                 “1/1/86” the transportation
                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/81”“1/1/88”“1/1/95”“1/1/02”“1/1/09”“1/1/16”picture.
                                                                                                                                                                     “1/1/89”“1/1/96”“1/1/03”“1/1/10”“1/1/17”
                                                                                                                                                         “1/1/80”“1/1/87”“1/1/94”“1/1/01”“1/1/08”“1/1/15”“1/1/30”
                                                                                                                                                             “1/1/83”“1/1/90”“1/1/97”“1/1/04”“1/1/11”“1/1/18”
                                                                                                                                                              “1/1/84”“1/1/91”“1/1/98”“1/1/05”“1/1/12”“1/1/19”
                                                                                                                                                               “1/1/85” “1/1/93”“1/1/00”“1/1/07”“1/1/14”“1/1/25”     While fuel
                                                                              America and Europe actually will decrease                                             demand for personal vehicles may be
This growth is heavily concentrated in                                        through 2030 – the only transportation                                                falling in some parts of the world, demand
Asia Pacific, where many countries and                                        subsector in which demand is projected                                                for trucks and other forms of commercial
individuals are making rapid economic                                         to decline.                                                                           transportation – aviation, marine and rail –
progress. Rising personal incomes will                                                                                                                              will continue to rise sharply in all regions.
produce a steep increase in vehicle                                           Light duty vehicle demand will decline by
ownership in this region.                                                     20 percent in North America and more                                                  Demand for fuel for commercial
                                                                              than 30 percent in Europe.                                                            transportation will grow by about 30 percent
As a result, even as the fuel economy of                                                                                                                            in North America and Europe, and more
new vehicles improves, light duty demand in                                   Projected gains in the fuel economy of                                                than 100 percent in the Asia Pacific region,
the Asia Pacific region will rise by 80 percent                               the world’s personal transportation fleet                                             over the course of the period covered by our
from 2005 to 2030.                                                            are the result of ongoing improvements to                                             Outlook for Energy.
                                                                              conventional internal-combustion vehicles,
                                                                              and also the increasing penetration of



18       exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
T      he cars people drive every day – to
work, school and stores – are the largest
                                                       need to be shipped to consumers, much
                                                       of it by heavy duty vehicles.
                                                                                                                  predominantly in developing countries,
                                                                                                                  where fleets are still maturing.
component of transportation-related energy
demand today. But that is changing.                    Just as cars and SUVs are achieving better                 However, these gains are more than offset
                                                       fuel economy, so are many of the world’s                   by increased economic activity, resulting
Fuel demand for trucks, buses and other                commercial vehicles; improved efficiency                   in growth in the movement of goods
heavy duty commercial vehicles is growing              will reduce heavy duty demand growth by                    within and between countries, along with
rapidly, and by 2030 will have become                  about 40 percent through 2030.                             operating inefficiencies such as increased
the largest single component of the                                                                               road congestion, lower-density cargo and
transportation sector.                                 These gains in fuel economy will come                      the increasing share of deliveries made
                                                       from new technology and modifications                      directly to the consumer.
The biggest reason is increased road-                  to physical operation, such as reduced
freight movements around the world.                    idling and improved route logistics. Also,
Economic growth means more goods                       larger truck size reduces demand by
                                                       capturing economies of scale. This occurs




Heavy duty vehicles                                                                        New powertrain technology,
lead demand growth                                                                  reduced idling and improved route logistics
                                                                                          in the heavy duty sector will lead to an anticipated

                                                                                                     40 percent
Heavy duty vehicles – commercial vehicles such
as freight trucks and buses – are the biggest
influence on transportation demand through 2030.
                                                                                                               efficiency gain.


Demand for heavy duty transportation                                                         Heavy duty demand changes
Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day                                                   Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day
  70                                           Globally, heavy duty                             50
                                               demand rises by more
                                               than 60 percent.
                                                                                                     Increased road freight
  60                                                                                                 movements and operating
                                                                                                     inefficiencies – such as
                                                                                                40
                                                                             Marine                  road congestion – would
                                                                                                     cause demand to grow to
  50                                                                                                 more than 40 MBDOE.
                                                                             Aviation

                                                                             Rail               30
  40
                                                                                                                                                Efficiency
                                                                                                                                                improvements
                                                                                                                                                and optimized
                                                                             Heavy duty
  30                                                                                                                                            truck size offset
                                                                                                20                                              65 percent
                                                                                                                                                of this increase.

  20


                                                                                                10

  10
                                                                             Light duty


   0                                                                                             0

       1980                             2005                          2030                                                  2005     2030



                                                                                                                              The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   19

                                                                                                                                                XOM Energy Outlook
B       y 2030, ExxonMobil expects to see
significant changes in the composition of
                                                 Powertrain technology in 2030
                                                 Millions of vehicles
                                                  350
                                                                                                                   Hybrid and advanced
                                                                                                                   vehicles will gain share in all
                                                                                                                   regions. By 2030, they will
the world’s personal-vehicle fleet.
                                                  300
                                                                                                                   account for about 25 percent
                                                                                  The number of personal           of global new-car sales.
                                                                                  vehicles in China will
The number of vehicles will continue to                                           nearly quadruple
                                                  250
                                                                                  from 2010 to 2030.
grow in all regions, although through                                                                                                                   Advanced:
2030 growth will be fastest in those                                                                                                                    full hybrid,
                                                  200                                                                                                   plug-in hybrid
countries that do not already have a high                                                                                                               and electric
                                                                                                                                                        vehicles
level of vehicle ownership. For example,          150
of the 400 million new cars that will be
                                                                                                                                                        CNG
added to the world’s roads between                100
                                                                                                                                                        Diesel
today and 2030, more than one-third of
them will be in China.                             50
                                                                                                                                                        Gasoline



The world’s personal-vehicle fleet also will        0
continue to achieve better fuel economy.                 North          Europe   Other      China          India         Middle     Latin      Other
                                                        America         OECD     OECD                                     East     America   Non OECD




                                                        350000
                                                                                                                                                                         A
      Personal-vehicle fleet
                                                                                            75 percent
                         300000
      expands and evolves                                                                                                                                                C
                         250000
      Cars and other personal vehicles are growing in                            of the increase in light duty vehicles through 2030 will be in                          D
      number, particularly in China and other Non OECD
                                              200000
      countries. However, they also are growing more                                          Non OECD countries.
      fuel-efficient.
                                                                                                                                                                         G
                                                        150000
                                                        100000
One reason will be shifts in ownership           of all personal vehicles on the road.                        Five-year cost of ownership in 2030
economics. While the global vehicle fleet                50000
                                                 Growth in these advanced vehicles will                       Thousands of dollars

is measured in hundreds of millions, its         be centered on full hybrids. Other types –                        35

evolution depends on purchase choices                          0
                                                 plug-in hybrids, electric vehicles and
made at an individual level. And those                                                          America
                                                                    EuropeOther China Middle East
                                                              North AmericaOECDOECD India LatinOther Non OECD
                                                 compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles –                           30                                       Fuel
choices depend heavily upon fulfilling an        are likely to be limited by economics.
individual’s personal vehicle criteria at
                                                                                                                   25
the lowest cost.                                 By 2030, ExxonMobil expects
                                                 conventional vehicles to fall to about
Today, based on purchase price and fuel          85 percent of the world’s fleet,                                  20
costs, conventional vehicles are the most        compared to more than 99 percent
economic option for consumers; hybrids           today. Although hybrids and other
                                                                                                                   15
are second, carrying an additional cost of       advanced vehicles are attractive in part
                                                                                                                                                            Vehicle
about $2,000 on average. By 2030, that           for their higher fuel economy, which can
differential will have narrowed significantly.   curb emissions and save fuel costs, it                            10
                                                 is important to remember that through
Through 2030, ExxonMobil expects that            2030, new, cost-effective technologies
                                                                                                                    5
hybrids and other advanced vehicles will         will continue to make conventional
account for about 25 percent of global           vehicles more fuel-efficient, too.
new-car sales, and almost 15 percent                                                                                0

                                                                                                                        Conven- Full CNG Plug-in Electric
                                                                                                                         tional hybrid   hybrid



20   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
                                                                                                                             North American
                                                                                                                             school bus fleet




Heavy duty fuel – lighter environmental impact
As nations around the world move toward greater prosperity,              Making such a major investment during an economic downturn
economists predict a dramatic increase in the global need for            illustrates the long-term business perspective of ExxonMobil.
heavy duty equipment for transportation and off-highway use              Competitiveness requires investment and adaptation regardless
in the construction, mining and agriculture industries. That             of the temporary business climate. Expanding existing refineries,
translates to a surging demand for diesel fuel. Our Outlook for          moreover, is much more cost-effective than building new facilities
Energy projects that global diesel demand in 2030 will be about          from scratch. This long-term, disciplined approach brings
13 million barrels per day higher than in 2005.                          enhanced value to shareholders.


To help meet that demand, ExxonMobil has invested more                   The expansions of ExxonMobil refineries in Baton Rouge, Baytown
than $1 billion in refineries in the United States and Belgium to        and Antwerp increase the supply of cleaner diesel fuel and have
produce cleaner diesel fuel. The fuel, known as ultra-low sulfur         positively impacted the local economies. These projects have
diesel, or ULSD, powers everything from tractor-trailer trucks and       provided construction jobs to more than 4,000 workers – some
buses to backhoes and threshers.                                         11 million hours in labor – an especially welcome development
                                                                         in these times of high unemployment. They have also provided a
The recent expansion of facilities in Baton Rouge, La., and              significant boost to the economies of local communities.
Baytown, Texas, along with a project in Antwerp, Belgium, means
an increase of 6 million gallons a day in ultra-low sulfur diesel. The   Additionally, ExxonMobil announced plans to build a diesel
boost in production at these facilities is roughly equal to the diesel   hydrotreater at our Singapore Refinery. We have completed
produced from about four average-size refineries.                        feasibility studies and early design work on the new unit. Once
                                                                         the unit is completed, the refinery’s total low sulfur diesel capacity
Use of ULSD helps address environmental concerns directly by             will rise to more than 25 million liters per day.
reducing sulfur emissions and also allows for the use of cleaner-
burning engines and the latest vehicle emissions control devices.        As our recent investments in ultra-low sulfur diesel demonstrate,
ULSD, used in combination with these advanced technologies,              ExxonMobil is committed to meet the challenge of producing the
results in significant improvements to air quality.                      energy needed to meet global demand – and in ways that help
                                                                         mitigate environmental impact.


                                                                                                            The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   21
         Industrial
                                    As economies expand through 2030, so will demand for energy to manufacture
                                    the cement, steel, chemicals and other durable goods that are the foundation
                                    upon which today’s economies are built.




                                                                                                             Steel production facility
                                                                                                             in Asia




22   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook                                                                   The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   23
S
                                               Industrial demand by sector                                      Industrial demand by fuel
                                               Quadrillion BTUs                                                 Quadrillion BTUs
       ince coal became the predominant
                                               250                                                                250
                                                       Better efficiency and
global fuel in the early 1900s, modern                 reduced natural gas                                                  Natural gas and
energy and modern industry have                        flaring will enable the                                              electricity are the
                                                       energy industry to keep                                              fastest-growing
been closely linked. This will continue        200     its energy usage flat.
                                                                                                Other
                                                                                                                  200       fuels for the
to be true through 2030, although the                                                                                       industrial sector.           Electricity
geographic center of industrial demand                                                    Chemicals                                                           Heat
growth has shifted to Non OECD                 150                                                                150                                    Biomass/
                                                                                                                                                            waste
nations, particularly those in Asia Pacific.
                                                                                                                                                              Coal


Globally, industrial energy demand is          100                                                                100

                                                                                               Heavy                                                           Gas
projected to grow by about 35 percent                                                        industry
from 2005 to 2030. This growth is driven
                                                50                                                                 50
by an expected doubling of steel and
cement production, as well as strong                                                                                                                             Oil
                                                                                    Energy industry
growth in general manufacturing. Also,
                                                 0                                                                     0

                                                     1980                   2005                   2030                    1980                   2005          2030




                                                                                                                                                            XOM Energy Outloo
                                                                                                                                                            For: GCG

      Industrial demand                                     250                                                                                                  Scott Turner/ Brian Wilburn
                                                                                                                                                                              24A 2010 XO
                                                                                                          Energy demand rises
                                                                                                                             Other                          File name:

      continues to climb                                                                                                                                                      None


                                                                                                  35 percent
                                                                                                                                                            Placed file(s):

                                                                                                                                                            For page:         ??
                                                    used
      The industrial sector represents the energy 200 in                                                                     Chem
                                                                                                                                                            Updated by:       Carol Zuber
      heavy industries such as steel and cement production,                                                                                                  ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-41
                                                                                                                                                                                  (c) 2010 E
      production of energy and chemicals, manufacturing of                                    in the industrial sector from 2005 to 2030. Unlimited within ExxonMob
                                                                                                                 OtherIndustry
                                                                                                                                       Usage:
                                                   150
      durable goods, and other activities, such as agriculture.
                                                                                                                             TotEIUSE


                                                            100
chemicals production is expected to            Efficiency gains will also be clearly                            It is worth noting that the industrial
more than double over this time period.        evident in the energy industry, the                              sector is a large user of electricity. (See
                                               third-largest industrial subsector,
                                                         50                                                     page 28 for a look at how industrial
Rising industrial activity will boost          which includes the production of oil,                            growth will contribute to driving global
demand for all major fuels. However,           natural gas and coal. Energy industry                            electricity demand higher through 2030.)
demand would be far higher were it not         demand                about flat through 2030,
                                                            stays“1/1/86”“1/1/93”“1/1/00”“1/1/07”“1/1/14”“1/1/25”
                                                             0
                                                            “1/1/80”“1/1/87”“1/1/94”“1/1/01”“1/1/08”“1/1/15”“1/1/30”
                                                             “1/1/81”“1/1/88”“1/1/95”“1/1/02”“1/1/09”“1/1/16”
                                                              “1/1/82”“1/1/89”“1/1/96”“1/1/03”“1/1/10”“1/1/17”
                                                                “1/1/83”“1/1/90”“1/1/97”“1/1/04”“1/1/11”“1/1/18”
                                                                 “1/1/84”“1/1/91”“1/1/98”“1/1/05”“1/1/12”“1/1/19”
                                                                  “1/1/85”“1/1/92”“1/1/99”“1/1/06”“1/1/13”“1/1/20”
for the fact that the industrial sector        even as demand for energy products
grows less energy-intensive over time.         grows substantially. This achievement
This is due in part to the use of energy-      is the result of ongoing efficiency
saving technologies – such as electric         improvements in energy production, and
arc furnaces for steelmaking and               a reduction in the flaring of natural gas
cogeneration, which is the simultaneous        associated with production processes.
production of both electricity and heat –
but also growth in less energy-intensive       In 2005, natural gas flaring accounted
industries such as computers and               for 15 percent of total demand in the
electronics.                                   energy industry sector. By 2030, we
                                               expect flaring losses to be reduced
In fact, efficiency improvements will          nearly 85 percent and for flaring to
offset 60 percent of the demand growth         account for less than 3 percent of
in the heavy industry and chemicals            demand in this category.
subsectors.


24   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
                                                                                                                                  By 2030, the
                                                                                                                                  world will have
                                                                                                                                  880 million more


I
                                               Heavy industry demand                                                              households. By
                                                                                                                      Heavy industry demand                       changes
                                                                                                                                  itself, this would
                                               Quadrillion BTUs                                                                    BTUs
                                                                                                                      Quadrillion cause demand to
   n general, growth in energy demand
                                               120     Growth will be                                                   175       rise by about 41
through 2030 is coming not from                        concentrated in                                                            quads.
those mature economies in the OECD,                    the Non OECD,                                                               By 2030, growth
                                                       which by 2030 will                                                150
but from fast-developing Non OECD              100                                                                                 in economic Energy Outlook
                                                                                                                                           XOM
                                                       account for about                                                                         raise
                                                                                                                                   output wouldGCG
countries such as China and India. This                75 percent                            Other
                                                                                                                                           For:
                                                                                                                                   heavy industry Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
                                                                                                                                                Scott
                                                       of heavy industry                   Non OECD                      125
                                                                                                                                            to
                                                                                                                                   demandFile name:
is especially true in the industrial sector.           demand.                                                                                            25A 2010 XOMEO-HvyIndustr
                                                80                                                                                 170 quadsfile(s):
                                                                                                                                                   ,
                                                                                                                                           Placed
                                                                                                                                   up from about 80       None
                                                                                                                         100               For page:
                                                                                                                                   quads in 2005.         ??                   Last updated: 12/16/
By 2030, Non OECD countries will account                                                           India
                                                60                                                                                         Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
for about 75 percent of heavy industry                                                                                                       ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics
                                                                                                                                                                     However,
                                                                                                                           75                                      (c) 2010 ExxonMobil
energy demand. This increase is driven                                                                                                                               efficiency
                                                                                                  China                                                              improvements
                                                                                                                                           Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
by continued growth in steel and cement         40                                                                                                                   offset about
production and increased manufacturing of
                                                                                                                           50
                                                                                                                                                                          60 percent
                                                                                                                                                                          of this increase.
goods for local consumption and export.         20
                                                                                                                           25
                                                                                                 OECD
The largest growth in heavy industry
                                                 0                                                                          0
demand will be in China over the next
                                                      1980                   2005                     2030                                            2005        2030




                                                                                                                                                          175
China, India spur                                                          120
                                                                                       India’s demand for energy
industrial growth                                                                                                   150
                                                                                 for heavy industry and chemicals will
                                                                                                     Non OECD ex China & India
Fast-developing economies in Asia and the
Middle East are the main drivers of industrial
energy demand from 2005 to 2030.
                                                                           100
                                                                                            nearly triple                                  India
                                                                                                                                                          125

                                                                            80                                    from 2005 China 2030.100
                                                                                                                            to
                                                                                                                                                             75
                                                                            60                                                             OECD
10 years, but then shifts to India, Brazil     Chemicals demand                                                       Chemicals demand changes
                                                                                                                                       50
and other areas after 2020. In OECD            Quadrillion BTUs                                                       Quadrillion BTUs
                                                                            40                                            175
countries, demand is down slightly.             120
                                                                                                                                                             25
                                                                                                                                 By 2030, growth in
                                                                                                                                 economic output would
Similar patterns are seen in the                                            20                                                   raise chemicals demand
                                                                                                                           XOM Energy Outlook
                                                                                                                          150
                                                                                                                                 to 80 quads, up from
                                                                                                                                                     0
chemicals industry, where Non OECD              100
                                                                                                                           For: GCG                       2005      e                  2030
                                                                                                                                 about 40 quads in 2005.
                                                                                                                                Scott Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
energy demand doubles from 2005 to                                          0                                                                      25C 2010 XOMEO-Chemicals.ai
2030. One factor is the Middle East,
                                                                             “1/1/82”“1/1/89”“1/1/96”“1/1/03”“1/1/10”“1/1/17” File
                                                                           “1/1/80”“1/1/87”“1/1/94”“1/1/01”“1/1/08”“1/1/15”“1/1/30”name:
                                                                            “1/1/81”“1/1/88”“1/1/95”“1/1/02”“1/1/09”“1/1/16”125
                                                                                 “1/1/85”“1/1/92”“1/1/99”“1/1/06”“1/1/13”“1/1/20”
                                                                                   “1/1/86”“1/1/93”“1/1/00”“1/1/07”“1/1/14”“1/1/25”
                                                                                “1/1/84”“1/1/91”“1/1/98”“1/1/05”“1/1/12”“1/1/19”
                                                                               “1/1/83”“1/1/90”“1/1/97”“1/1/04”“1/1/11”“1/1/18”                                   However,
                                                                                                                           Placed file(s):         None           efficiency
                                                 80
which is undergoing tremendous                                                                                             For page:               ??             improvements
                                                                                                                                                               Last updated: 12/16/2010
                                                                                                                                                                  offset more than
capacity expansion to take advantage                        Non OECD demand for the                                        Updated by:             Carol Zuber-Mallison
                                                            chemicals industry will be                                    100                                            55 percent
                                                                                                                            ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics.com
of local oil and natural gas feedstocks.                                                                                                                                 of this increase.
                                                            more than 80 percent                                                                        (c) 2010 ExxonMobil
                                                 60
China and other developing Asian                            higher than that of OECD
                                                                                                                            Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
                                                            demand by 2030.
                                                                                                                           75
countries also are aggressively
expanding capacity to lower their
                                                 40                                          Other
dependence on imports.                                                                     Non OECD
                                                                                                                           50
                                                                                                   India

                                                 20
                                                                                                 China
                                                                                                                           25


                                                                                                 OECD

                                                  0                                                                          0

                                                      1980                   2005                     2030                                             2005       2030




                                                      120                                                                             The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030                  25

                                                                                                                Non OECD ex China & India
         Power generation
                                    Meeting rapidly growing demand for electricity is one of the world’s biggest energy
                                    challenges. At the same time, a shift to natural gas and other cleaner energy sources
                                    for power generation offers one of the most economically effective options for
                                    curbing CO2 emissions.




                                                                                                                     New York City, USA




26   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook                                                                     The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   27
E
                                                Electricity demand by sector                                                     Electricity demand by region
                                                                                                                                     By 2030,                        XOM Energy Outlook
                                                Thousands of terawatt hours                                                        electricity of
                                                                                                                                 Thousands willterawatt hours For: GCG
       lectricity powers industry, as well                                                                                           beabout 4                             Scott Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
                                                 30                                                                                  30
                                                        Rising demand for                                                                                                           28A 2010 XOMEO-Elec
as homes, offices, retail stores and critical           electricity is driven by the
                                                                                                  Commercial                         times the                       File name:
                                                                                                                                     level of 1980.                 Placed file(s): None
services such as hospitals. Rising demand               residential/commercial and                                                              Global electricity
                                                 25
                                                        industrial sectors. Electric                                                 25                             For
                                                                                                                                                usage in 2030 will be page:         ??         Last updated:
for electricity, and the choices of fuels               vehicles and other                                                                      about four times    Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
used to generate that electricity, is one of            transportation applications                                                             the level of 1980. ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zm
                                                        remain limited.                                                                                                                      (c) 2010 ExxonMobil
the largest influences on the global energy      20                                                                                  20
                                                                                                                                                                     Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
landscape through 2030.

                                                 15                                                                                  15
                                                                                                  Residential                                                                Non OECD
Global electricity demand will rise by more
than 80 percent through 2030 – led by                                              Transportation
                                                                                                                                                                                  OtherIndustry Other Industrial
                                                                                                         Other
Non OECD nations, where demand will be           10
                                                                                                       industry
                                                                                                                                     10                                 “1/1/80”        2878                  1138
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/81”        2938                  1141
up more than 150 percent.                                                                                                                                               “1/1/82”        2823                  1163
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/83”        2928                  1209
                                                  5                                                                                   5                                 “1/1/84”        3147                  1278
                                                                                                        Heavy                                                                         OECD
Demand for electricity is driven by the                                                                industry
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/85”        3194                  1349
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/86”        3259                  1392
residential/commercial and industrial                                                                                                                                   “1/1/87”        3388                  1481
                                                  0                                                                                   0                                 “1/1/88”        3584                  1533
sectors. Electric vehicles and other                                                                                                                                    “1/1/89”        3673                  1574
                                                      1980                      2005                           2030                       1980                   2005                       2030
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/90”        3711                  1602
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/91”        3790                  1620
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/92”        3763                  1621
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/93”        3755                  1609
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/94”        3814                  1644
                                                       NOTE: Check unit
                                                          30000                                                                                                         “1/1/95”        3915                  1691
      Demand for electricity                                                                        Non OECD electricity demand rises
                                                                                                                  Commercial
                                                                                                                                                    30000
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/96”
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/97”
                                                                                                                                                                                        3996
                                                                                                                                                                                        4096
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1728
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1741 Non O

      rises sharply        25000
                                                                                                                                           by more than                 “1/1/98”
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/99”
                                                                                                                                                                                        4167
                                                                                                                                                                                        4301
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1705
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1716


                                                                                                                        150 percent
                                                                                                                                                    25000

      Rising demand for electricity, particularly in Non OECD                                                                Residential                                “1/1/00”
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/01”
                                                                                                                                                                                        4512
                                                                                                                                                                                        4504
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1782 OECD
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1815
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/02”        4692                  1845
      nations, will have a profound influence on energy and                                                                                                             “1/1/03”        4830                  1921
                                                      20000                                                                                through 2030;
                                                                                                                                               Transportation
                                                                                                                                                    20000               “1/1/04”        5130                  1993
      environmental trends through 2030.                                                                                                                                “1/1/05”        5369                  2075
                                                                                                        OECD rises by about 25 percent.                                 “1/1/06”
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/07”
                                                                                                                                                                                        5688
                                                                                                                                                                                        6238
                                                                                                                                                                                                              2137
                                                                                                                                                                                                              2248
                                                             15000                                                                               Other Industrial
                                                                                                                                                    15000               “1/1/08”        6305                  2286
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/09”        6140                  2306
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/10”        6485                  2317
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/11”        6673                  2344
transportation applications remain limited.                 10000
                                                This rising demand for electricity is a sign                                                     OtherIndustry
                                                                                                                                                    10000               “1/1/12”        6898                  2378
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/13”        7124                  2409
(See page 20 for a look at the economics        of economic and social development; for                                                                                 “1/1/14”        7314                  2445
                                                                                                                                                       By the year



                                                                                                                                          2015
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/15”        7502                  2483
of alternative vehicles.)                       example, households shifting away from
                                                              5000                                                                                   5000               “1/1/16”        7714                  2512
                                                traditional biomass fuels and instead using                                                                             “1/1/17”        7926                  2549
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/18”        8161                  2587
Electricity demand tends to rise in             electricity. Yet even today, approximately                                                                              “1/1/19”        8367                  2630
conjunction with broader prosperity
and rising personal incomes. Therefore,
                                                               0
                                                1.4 billion people – about 20 percent of
                                                                      “1/1/83”“1/1/89”“1/1/95”“1/1/01”“1/1/07”“1/1/13”“1/1/19”
                                                                       “1/1/84”“1/1/90”“1/1/96”“1/1/02”“1/1/08”“1/1/14”“1/1/20”
                                                                        “1/1/85”“1/1/91”“1/1/97”“1/1/03”“1/1/09”“1/1/15”“1/1/25”
                                                                  “1/1/80”“1/1/86”“1/1/92”“1/1/98”“1/1/04”“1/1/10”“1/1/16”“1/1/30”
                                                                   “1/1/81”“1/1/87”“1/1/93”“1/1/99”“1/1/05”“1/1/11”“1/1/17”
                                                                    “1/1/82”“1/1/88”“1/1/94”“1/1/00”“1/1/06”“1/1/12”“1/1/18”
                                                the world’s population – still lack access
                                                                                                                                                         0              “1/1/20”
                                                                                                                                                               “1/1/87”“1/1/25”
                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/30” 10652
                                                                                                                                                                                      , 8579
                                                                                                                                                             “1/1/85” “1/1/93” “1/1/01”9631 “1/1/17”
                                                                                                                                                                                                              2666
                                                                                                                                                       “1/1/80” “1/1/88” “1/1/96” “1/1/04” “1/1/12” “1/1/20” 2927
                                                                                                                                                              “1/1/86” “1/1/94” “1/1/02” “1/1/10” “1/1/18”
                                                                                                                                                           “1/1/83” “1/1/91” “1/1/99” “1/1/07” “1/1/15”
                                                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/09”
                                                                                                                                                         “1/1/82” “1/1/90” “1/1/98” “1/1/06” “1/1/14” “1/1/30”
                                                                                                                                                                         “1/1/95” “1/1/03” “1/1/11” “1/1/19”
                                                                                                                                                        “1/1/81” “1/1/89” “1/1/97” “1/1/05” “1/1/13” “1/1/25”
                                                                                                                                                            “1/1/84” “1/1/92” “1/1/00” “1/1/08” “1/1/16”
                                                                                                                                                                                                              3181

as Non OECD countries continue to
                                                                                                                                             electricity demand in
                                                to electricity.
transition to more developed economies,                                                                                                    Non OECD countries will
they will see rapid growth in electricity       Providing the energy to meet growing                                                        exceed OECD demand.
demand – much like OECD countries did           electricity demand will be a tremendous
decades ago.                                    challenge through 2030.


In fact, about 80 percent of the growth in      Growing production of natural gas to fuel
global electricity demand through 2030          advanced power plants will help meet
will likely occur in Non OECD countries.        this rising demand. As a clean-burning
China alone accounts for 35 percent.            energy source, natural gas will also help
But because Non OECD countries have             mitigate environmental impacts, as the
significantly larger populations, their per-    power-generation sector is the single
capita demand will still be far lower than      largest contributor to global energy-
OECD countries by that time.                    related CO2 emissions.


28   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
W          hat types of fuels will be used to
meet rapidly growing demand for electricity?
                                                                 for power generation. Today, about 40
                                                                 percent of the world’s power comes from
                                                                                                                  $30 per ton in the OECD. At this level,
                                                                                                                  natural gas becomes a lower-cost source
                                                                 coal, while about 20 percent comes from          of electricity than coal, while nuclear and
Answering this question is complex,                              natural gas.                                     wind become increasingly competitive.
because power can be generated by a                                                                               This shift becomes even more
wide range of fuels – traditional sources                        However, many governments are seeking            pronounced if CO2 costs rise to $60 per
such as coal and natural gas, and                                to limit greenhouse gas emissions by             ton, which is where we anticipate policies
renewable sources such as wind and                               enacting policies that put a cost on             in the OECD will drive costs by 2030.
solar. With so many options, the future mix                      CO2 emissions. As CO2 costs go up,
of fuels depends heavily upon cost. Costs                        economics shift. Coal – which emits far          Even at $60 per ton, some options may
are important because power buyers                               more CO2 than other fuels – becomes less         still not be competitive absent major
and utility companies will seek to buy the                       economically attractive.                         breakthroughs to reduce costs – including
lowest-cost power first.                                                                                          solar and coal- and gas-fired plants that
                                                                 ExxonMobil anticipates that, by 2020,            employ carbon capture and storage
In most regions of the world, coal and                           adoption of these policies will be               (CCS) technology, where CO2 emissions
natural gas are the most economical fuels                        equivalent to adding CO2 costs of about          are captured and stored underground.




Carbon policies will shift                                                                                 Using gas instead of coal
power generation choices                                                                              for power generation could lead to a potential
Environmental policies that put a cost on CO2 emissions
will shift the economics for power generation. Under
any scenario, natural gas is an attractive choice.
                                                                                                           60 percent
                                                                                                        reduction in CO2 emissions.


Average U.S. cost of electricity generation in 2025                                                               While ExxonMobil believes CCS has the
Cost per kilowatt hour in 2010 cents                                                                              potential to be an effective technology for
  20
                                                                                                                  curbing emissions, we expect that through
       Generating costs are measured in cents per kilowatt hour and are for                                       2030, most CCS projects will require
       new, baseload power-generation plants that come online in 2025.
       The economics of various fuels for generating electricity would
                                                                                                                  government support.
       change under policies that impose a cost on CO2 emissions.

  15                                                                                                              Under any scenario, natural gas is an
                 Natural gas is cleaner-burning                                                                   attractive fuel choice for power generation. It
                 than coal, so its cost is less
                 affected by CO2 policies.                                                                        is abundant and produces up to 60 percent
               At $60
                                                                                                                  less CO2 emissions than coal. No cost
                                                                                                                                                 Also,                     $60
                                           Nuclear and wind power
               per ton
               of CO2                      become more economically                                                         generation plants are5.34
                                                                                                                  gas-fired Coal                  based on                 10.09
  10
                                           attractive as CO2 costs rise.                                                    Gas                  6.01                      8.13
                                                                                                                  proven technology, can be built quickly
                                                                                                                            Nuclear              7.55                      7.55
                                                                                                                  and are already cost-effective today.
                                                                                                                            Wind                 6.63                      6.63
                                                                                                                            Coal-CCS             10.40                     10.91
                                                                                                                            Gas-CCS              9.06                      9.30
       No CO2                                                                                                     ExxonMobil expects demand for natural
        cost                                                                                                                Solar                15.55                     15.55
   5                                                                                                              gas for power generation to rise by about
                                                                                                                  85 percent from 2005 to 2030. By 2030,
                                                                                                                                         XOM Energy Outlook
                                                                                                                  gas will be providing more than 25 percent
                                                                                                                                             For: GCG
                                                                                                                                               Scott and Brian Wilburn 817-332-4
                                                                                                                  of the world’s electricity needs Turner/will be
   0
                                                                                                                                                   29A 2010
                                                                                                                  well-positioned to become the top source XOMEO-B
                                                                                                                                        File name:

                                                                                                                                             Placed file(s):   None
             Coal              Gas            Nuclear            Wind*          Coal/CCS   Gas/CCS       Solar*   for electricity production.
                                                                                                                                             For page:         ??          Last upda
   * Wind and solar exclude costs for backup capacity and additional transmission
                                                                                                                                             Updated by:       Carol Zuber-Malliso
                                                                                                                                              ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol
                                                                                                                                                                 (c) 29
                                                                                                                            The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 2010 ExxonMobil

                                                                                                                                             Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
Global power generation capacity                                                               Electricity demand by fuel
Gigawatts                                                                                      Thousands of terawatt hours
800                                                                                             30
           Wind capacity will overtake
           nuclear by 2030, but wind
           utilization rates will be far lower.                                                         Today, 40 percent
                                                                                                25      of the world’s electricity
                                                                                                        is produced using coal.                                      Gas
600                                                                                                     By 2030, coal’s share
                                                                                                        will have dropped to
                                                                                                20      about 30 percent.
                                                              Intermittent wind and                                 XOM Energy Outlook
                                                              sun reduces output                                    For: GCG
                                                                                                                         Scott Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
                                                              of installed capacity.                                                                             Coal
400                                                                                             15                  File name:        30A 2010 XOMEO-EnrgyPrCap.ai
                                                                                                                    Placed file(s):   None
                                                                                                                    For page:         ??          Last updated: 12/16/2010
                                                                                                10
                                                                                                                    Updated by:       Carol Zuber-Mallison       Nuclear
200                                                                                                                    ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics.com
                                                                                                                                           (c) 2010 ExxonMobil
                                                                                                                                                                     Wind/Solar
                                                                                Capacity         5
                                                                                not utilized                        Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil

                                                                                Capacity                                                                             Other Renewables
                                                                                utilized
     0                                                                                           0                                                                   Oil
                    2005 2030               2005 2030          2005 2030                             1980                        2005                       2030
                     Nuclear                  Wind               Solar




                                                                                                     30000
          Nuclear, renewable fuels    800                                                                      Nuclear        '05  369  316.01                         Gas
                                                                                                                         Global nuclear capacity
                                                                                                                              '30  619  553.24
          will expand significantly                                                                  25000     Wind           '05  58   11.87
                                                                                                                           is '30 752 242.81
                                                                                                                               projected to rise                       Coal
                                                                                                                                                                   by nearly
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/80”
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/81”
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Oil
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1257
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1185



                                                                                                                         70 percent
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/82”   1062
          Concerns about greenhouse gas emissions and the desire for
                            600                                                                                Solar          '05  5    0.57                                              “1/1/83”   1021
          more diversity in fuels are prompting increased investment    20000                                                 '30  197  29.2                           Nuclear            “1/1/84”
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/85”
                                                                                                                                                                                                     972
                                                                                                                                                                                                     851
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/86”   882
          in nuclear, wind and solar as power-generation fuels. Of                                                                                                                        “1/1/87”   869

                                                                        15000
          these, nuclear will play the most significant role through 2030.                                                            from now through 2030.
                                                                                                                                                          SolWind
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/88”
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/89”
                                                                                                                                                                                                     919
                                                                                                                                                                                                     976
                                      400                                                                                                                                                 “1/1/90”   1177
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/91”   1026
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/92”   999
                                                                                                     10000                                                             Other Renewables   “1/1/93”   938



T
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/94”   947
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/95”   1057
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/96”   1047
                                      200
          he world will see significant additions                                                     5000
                                                                  The generating capacity and efficiency of                                                            Oil
                                                                                                                                  Still, wind and solar will play a much
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/97”
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/98”
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1055
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1078
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/99”   1050
to nuclear capacity through 2030. Wind                            a given power plant each contribute to                          bigger role in power generation in                      “1/1/00”   1016
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/01”   995
and solar capacity will also rise sharply,                        its ability to provide an economic source                      coming decades.
                                                                                                        0                                                                                 “1/1/02”
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/03”
                                                                                                                                                                                                     989
                                                                                                                                                                                                     992
                         0
albeit from a much smaller base.
                                                  '05   '30
                                                                  to meet “baseload” and/or “peak” power
                                                                   '05        '30        '05      '30
                                                                                                       “1/1/81”“1/1/88”“1/1/95”“1/1/02”“1/1/09”“1/1/16”
                                                                                                             “1/1/85”“1/1/92”“1/1/99”“1/1/06”“1/1/13”“1/1/20”
                                                                                                              “1/1/86”“1/1/93”“1/1/00”“1/1/07”“1/1/14”“1/1/25”
                                                                                                           “1/1/84”“1/1/91”“1/1/98”“1/1/05”“1/1/12”“1/1/19”
                                                                                                          “1/1/83”“1/1/90”“1/1/97”“1/1/04”“1/1/11”“1/1/18”
                                                                                                         “1/1/82”“1/1/89”“1/1/96”“1/1/03”“1/1/10”“1/1/17”
                                                                                                      “1/1/80”“1/1/87”“1/1/94”“1/1/01”“1/1/08”“1/1/15”“1/1/30”                            “1/1/04”
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/05”
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1014
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1019
                                                                  requirements as electricity demand shifts                       In fact, to meet projected increases in                 “1/1/06”   938
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/07”   969
This capacity growth, shown in the chart                          throughout the day. Nuclear is a very                           global demand for electricity, all economic             “1/1/08”   958
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/09”   839
on the left above, is driven in the OECD                          reliable “baseload” technology, and up to                       fuel sources will need to expand through                “1/1/10”   864
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/11”   856
by policies that impose a cost on carbon                          about 90 percent of its capacity will be                        2030. Of the increase needed from 2005,                 “1/1/12”   835
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/13”   831
emissions, making these fuels more                                used to generate electricity.                                   natural gas provides about 35 percent and               “1/1/14”   832
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/15”   832
economic. In the Non OECD, much of the                                                                                            coal about 25 percent.                                  “1/1/16”   835
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/17”   831
growth stems from China’s plans to increase                       Wind- and solar-powered generating                                                                                      “1/1/18”   828
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/19”   818
all forms of electric power generation.                           facilities, however, are heavily dependent                      Today, 40 percent of the world’s                        “1/1/20”   814
                                                                                                                                                                                          “1/1/25”   814
                                                                  on natural variability in wind and sun                          electricity is made from coal. By 2030,                 “1/1/30”   822
Collectively, this growth will require                            conditions, which result in much lower                          coal’s share will have dropped to about
significant investment over the next                              capacity utilization levels. So while the                       30 percent.
20 years. But building capacity for                               absolute capacity of wind facilities is likely
power generation is not the same as                               to overtake nuclear by 2030, much of
utilizing that capacity.                                          this capacity will not be utilized due to
                                                                  the variability of wind resources.



30       exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
I  n Asia Pacific, coal is the predominant
fuel; in the U.S. and Europe, the mix is
                                                       Much of the growth in Asia Pacific demand
                                                       will be met by coal. Demand for coal for
quite different, with coal being overtaken             power generation in Asia Pacific will continue
by natural gas, nuclear, and in Europe,                to rise sharply – with growth at about 85
renewable fuels. These differences will only           percent from 2005 to 2030. Coal will lose
grow more pronounced through 2030.                     some market share to natural gas, nuclear
                                                       and renewable fuels, which will also see
Demand for energy for power generation in              strong growth; by 2030, coal will account for
Asia Pacific is projected to grow dramatically         less than 60 percent of the fuel required for
in conjunction with rapid economic growth              power generation in Asia Pacific, down from
and rising living standards. In fact, by 2030,         about 70 percent today.
Asia Pacific power-generation demand will
be about one-and-a-half times the level of             Power-generation demand is climbing
North America and Europe combined.                     less quickly in more mature economies of
                                                       North America and Europe. In all regions,
                                                       improvements to efficiency help curb
                                                       demand growth.




Power-generation demand                                                                                          From 2005 to 2030,
growth is led by Asia Pacific                                                               demand for natural gas in
Demand for electricity, and usage of coal, is accelerating                               power generation will increase by
in the Asia Pacific region – a very different picture than in
North America or Europe.                                                                           85 percent                                             .


Power generation by fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
North America                                    Europe                                         Asia Pacific
 120                                             120                                               120     Coal continues to
                                                                                                           rise sharply in the
                                                                                                           Asia Pacific                                 Renewables
              In North America and Europe, fuel demand grows slowly                                        region; by 2030,
 100          because of modest growth in electricity demand, and also
                                              100                                                  100     the amount of
                                                                                                           coal used for
              efficiency gains. Gas and nuclear gain share, while coal declines.                           power generation                             Nuclear
                                                                                                           will be more than
  80                                              80                                                80
                                                                                                           four times
                                                                                                           the amount used
               Use of natural gas as a                                                                     in North America
               power-generation fuel                                                                       and Europe
               will nearly double in                                                                       combined.
  60                                              60                                                60
               North America from
               2005 to 2030.
                                                                                                                                                        Coal

  40                                              40                                                40




  20                                              20                                                20



                                                                                                                                                        Gas
   0                                               0                                                 0                                                  Oil
       1980           2005               2030          1980            2005            2030              1980               2005              2030




                                                                                                                          The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   31
         Greenhouse gas emissions
                                    Meeting the world’s energy challenges goes beyond balancing supply and demand; it
                                    also requires managing the risks posed by rising greenhouse gas emissions. Globally,
                                    rising energy demand will result in higher energy-related CO2 emissions through 2030,
                                    but improved efficiency and a shift toward cleaner fuels will mitigate emissions growth.




                                                                                                                         View of earth from
                                                                                                                         40,000 feet




32   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook                                                                        The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   33
Energy-related CO2 emissions by region                 CO2 emissions in OECD                                      CO2 emissions in Non OECD
Billion tons                                           Billion tons                                               Billion tons
  40
                  By 2030, two-thirds                    50                                                         50
                  of energy-related CO2
                  emissions will come from                                           Growing economic output could more than
                  Non OECD countries.                                                double global emissions by 2030.                            OECD           China   India
                                                               XOM Energy Outlook                                                      “1/1/80” Large gains in
                                                                                                                                                 11020          1428    298
                                                         40                                                         40
                                                               For: GCG                                                                “1/1/81” efficiency will 1409
                                                                                                                                                 10714                  328
  30                                                                Scott Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/82” reduce emissions
                                                                                                                                                 10284          1467    351
                                                               File name:      34A 2010 XOMEO-CO2byRegion.ai
                                                                                         Improvements to
                                          Other                                          efficiency, plus the                          “1/1/83” growth by 1543
                                                                                                                                                 10224                  374
                                        Non OECD               Placed file(s): None
                                                                                         use of cleaner-                               “1/1/84” two-thirds.
                                                                                                                                                 10579          1686    408
                                                         30                                                      30
                                                               For page:       ??        burningupdated: 12/07/2010
                                                                                            Last fuels, will                           “1/1/85”  10677          1726    433
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/86”  10686          1833    460
                                             India             Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
                                                                                         drive actual
  20                                                                                                                                   “1/1/87”  10937          1969    500
                                                                                         emissions lower.
                                                                ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics.com
                                                                                      (c) 2010 ExxonMobil
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/88”  11260          2113    531
                                                         20                                                         20                 “1/1/89”  11455          2198    573
                                             China
                                                               Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil                                      “1/1/90”  11281          2253    606
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/91”  11289          2362    646
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/92”  11331          2462    680
  10
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/93”  11415          2633    702
                                                         10                                                         10
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/94”  11606          2775    742
                                             OECD                                                                                      “1/1/95”  11783          3054    796
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/96”  12167          3142    839
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/97”  12351          3111    876
     0                                                    0                                                          0                 “1/1/98”  12367          3135    888
           1980               2005              2030             2005                               2030                      2005     “1/1/99”  12459
                                                                                                                                                    2030        3048    957
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/00”  12705          3042    980
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/01”  12690          3075    984
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/02”  12701          3339    1018
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/03”  12924          3888    1047
                              40000                                                                                                    “1/1/04”  13080          4627    1132

          Global CO2 emissions to Rest                                                                                           By 2030,
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/05”
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/06”
                                                                                                                                                 13197
                                                                                                                                                 13154
                                                                                                                                                                5136
                                                                                                                                                                5697
                                                                                                                                                                        1175
                                                                                                                                                                        1265

          increase through 2030 India
                                                                                                                emissions
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/07”  13318          6125    1340
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/08”  13142          6322    1416
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/09”  12334          6827    1496
          Reducing global emissions is increasingly recognized as a significant
                        30000                                                                                                          “1/1/10”  12371          7068    1574
          challenge. Because different regions are at different stages in their                                          OECD countries will be
                                                                                                                      in 50            “1/1/11”  12445          7236    1601
                                                                  China                                                                “1/1/12”  12457          7398    1644
          economic development, trends for energy-related CO2 emissions                                            back to 1980 levels.“1/1/13”
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/14”
                                                                                                                                                 12473
                                                                                                                                                 12425
                                                                                                                                                                7569
                                                                                                                                                                7622
                                                                                                                                                                        1689
                                                                                                                                                                        1731
          through 2030 vary greatly between OECD and Non OECD countries.                                                               “1/1/15”  12295          7727    1773
                              20000                                               OECD                                   40            “1/1/16”  12234          7845    1814
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/17”  12157          7964    1850

                                                                                50                                                     “1/1/18”  12099          8101    1897



T
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/19”  12034          8176    1945

                          10000
                                                                                                                         30            “1/1/20”
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/25”
                                                                                                                                                 11991
                                                                                                                                                 11523
                                                                                                                                                                8265
                                                                                                                                                                8831
                                                                                                                                                                        1992
                                                                                                                                                                        2261
         he outlook for energy-related CO2             In OECD countries, CO2 emissions will                      will be needed to   fuel rapid economic
                                                                                                                                       “1/1/30”  10985          9104    2540
emissions is linked directly to the types                                40
                                                       decline through 2030 even as economic                      development. By 2030, Non OECD
and amounts of energy required globally.               output grows by more than 60 percent                             20
                                                                                                                  nations will account for approximately
                           0                           and population grows by 10 percent.                        two-thirds of energy-related CO2
                            “1/1/85” “1/1/02”“1/1/18” 30
Today, energy-related CO“1/1/82”“1/1/98”“1/1/14”
                        “1/1/81”“1/1/97”“1/1/13”
                         2“1/1/83”“1/1/99”“1/1/15”
                           “1/1/84”“1/1/00”“1/1/16”
                           emissions “1/1/01”“1/1/17”
                             “1/1/86” “1/1/03”“1/1/19”
                              “1/1/87” “1/1/04”
                               “1/1/88” “1/1/05”
                                “1/1/89” “1/1/06”
                                 “1/1/90” “1/1/07”
                                  “1/1/91” “1/1/08”
                                   “1/1/92” “1/1/09”
                                    “1/1/93” “1/1/10”
                                     “1/1/94” “1/1/11”
                                      “1/1/95” “1/1/12”
                                       “1/1/96”                                                                   emissions worldwide.
                       “1/1/80”
in Non OECD nations exceed those in                 “1/1/20”
                                               Those reductions will be more than                                        10
the OECD by almost 40 percent, and
                                                     “1/1/25”
                                               offset, however, by rising CO2 emissions                           Even with this large projected share of
                                                      “1/1/30”
by 2030 are likely to be double those                                 20
                                                       in Non OECD countries, where rapid                         global emissions, average per-capita
of OECD nations. In total, global CO2                  economic development and rising                            CO2 emissions in the Non OECD, while
emissions are likely to increase about                 prosperity will produce large increases                    rising through 2030 in line with higher
25 percent from 2005 to 2030.                          in demand for energy, and particularly                     prosperity, will still be less than half the
                                                       for power generation – a large portion                     levels seen in the OECD at that time.
While the expected increase in CO2                     of which will be met by coal, the most
emissions is substantial, it is significantly          carbon-intensive fuel.                                     Another way to measure emissions
lower than the projected 35 percent                                                                               is per unit of economic output. On
growth in energy demand. This outlook                  While Non OECD countries will see                          this basis, OECD nations today have
reflects broad energy efficiency gains                 gains in energy efficiency and increase                    much lower emission levels than in the
in economies around the world and a                    their share of cleaner fuels, the resulting                Non OECD. By 2030, the gap shrinks
shift toward natural gas and other less                CO2 savings are more than offset by the                    somewhat but remains significant.
carbon-intensive energies.                             tremendous rise in energy demand that


34       exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
W        hile global CO2 emissions are
seen rising by about 1 percent a year on
                                                    Progress will be most evident in the
                                                    OECD, where emissions are projected
                                                                                                    countries to offset about two-thirds of
                                                                                                    the growth in emissions that would have
average between 2005 and 2030, that is              to fall by about 15 percent from 2005 to        been associated with the steep increases
lower than the projected average rate of            2030. By 2030, OECD emissions will be           in demand projected for these countries;
growth in energy demand, which is more              back to levels not seen since 1980.             a shift toward fuels with lower carbon
than 1.2 percent a year.                                                                            intensity will have a modest impact.
                                                    Non OECD emissions, however, are
This achievement – meeting rising energy            projected to increase by almost 70 percent      In all regions of the world, we see the
demand while slowing growth in                      over the period from 2005 to 2030.              dual power of efficiency, which not only
emissions – is the result of accelerated                                                            helps balance market needs for reliable,
gains in energy efficiency and a shift toward       Yet Non OECD emissions growth would             affordable supplies but also helps mitigate
lower-carbon fuels. For example, natural            be far steeper without the significant          risks associated with greenhouse gas
gas can result in up to 60 percent less CO2         improvements in efficiency expected in          emissions.
emissions than coal, currently the most             these countries through 2030. ExxonMobil
widely used fuel for power generation.              expects efficiency gains in Non OECD




Efficiency to curb                                                                             Emissions per capita
emissions growth
Improved efficiency and increased use of cleaner
fuels, such as natural gas, are effective tools for
                                                                                             are falling
                                                                                      in the U.S., Europe and Asia Pacific OECD,
reducing CO2 emissions.
                                                                                               but rising elsewhere.


Emissions per capita                                                                                Emissions per GDP
Tons per person                                                                                     Tons per GDP in thousands of 2005 dollars
 20                                                                                                  1.6


                                                                                                                 Emissions per
                                           By 2030, CO2 emissions                                    1.4         GDP will decline
                                           per capita in Europe and                                              significantly in
                                                                                                                 both the OECD
 15
                                           China will be nearly equal.                               1.2         and Non OECD
                                                                                                                 by 2030.

                                                                                                     1.0



 10                                                                                                  0.8



                                                                                                     0.6



  5                                                                                                  0.4



                                                                                                     0.2



  0                                                                                                   0

        2005   2010     2030   2005   2010   2030       2005   2010    2030   2005   2010    2030               2005 2030            2005 2030
           United States          Europe OECD                  China                 India                         OECD               Non OECD




                                                                                                                  XOM Energy Outlook
                                                                                                               The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   35

                                                                                                                  For: GCG
P    ower generation is the world’s largest
and fastest-growing energy-demand sector.
                                                         This shift toward cleaner fuels for
                                                         power generation will help slow growth
                                                                                                                     demand, along with increased activity from
                                                                                                                     heavy duty vehicles, airplanes and other
It is also the sector that produces the most             in emissions from this sector even                          commercial transportation, contribute to
emissions – accounting for slightly more                 as demand for power generation                              this projection.
than 40 percent of global CO2 emissions.                 rises dramatically. By 2030, as power
                                                         generation’s share of global energy                         From a scale perspective, power plants
Through 2030, ExxonMobil sees strong                     demand rises from about 35 percent to                       emit more CO2 than any other sector,
growth in cleaner energy sources for                     more than 40 percent of energy demand,                      and so are naturally an area of significant
power generation, such as natural                        this sector’s share of global emissions will                interest. Several options for cost-effective
gas and nuclear, which will gain share                   remain roughly unchanged.                                   avoidance of emissions resulting from
from coal, currently the most popular                                                                                power generation are readily available.
fuel for power generation. This shift                    Collectively, the power-generation and                      Building a new gas, nuclear or wind power-
will be spurred in part by government                    transportation sectors account for                          generation plant instead of a coal-fired
policies – particularly in the OECD – that               almost two-thirds of energy-related CO2                     plant enables emissions reductions for
are designed to reduce emissions by                      emissions today – and about 80 percent                      a cost of less than $50 per ton of CO2
imposing a cost on carbon.                               of the increase in emissions from 2005                      avoided. These options are competitive at
                                                         through 2030. Rapidly growing electricity                   the cost of CO2 we assume in the Outlook.




          Emissions growth                                                                           The annual rate of emissions growth
          moderates in power-                                                                  from the power-generation sector in 2005-2030
          generation sector                                                                                will drop by more than

          As the largest energy-consuming sector, and the one
          that emits the most CO2, power generation offers a
                                                                                                         50 percent     vs. 1980-2005.
          significant opportunity for curbing CO2 emissions.

                                                                                                                                                          Transp        PowerGen Industrial Res/
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/80”      3715.56       5652.4      6638.28 2598
CO2 emissions by sector                                  U.S. cost of CO2 avoidance vs. new coal                           Avoidance costs for CCS and solar are
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/81”      3693.03       5663.55     6350.68 2533
Billion tons                                             Dollars per ton                                                   somewhat higher, ranging from $50 to
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/82”      3674.79       5673.97     6131.71 2515
  35
           Emissions in the                                500
                                                                                                                           $200 per ton of “1/1/83” 3709
                                                                                                                                             CO2 avoided.               5838.01     6081.65 2501
           power-generation                                                                                                                 “1/1/84”      3811.29       6000.93     6324.79 2594
           sector will rise by                                                                                                              “1/1/85”      3885.72       6141.28     6331.74 2657
                                         Residential/
           about 35 percent              commercial                                                                        In the transportation sector, technologies 6372.59 2652
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/86”      4033.65       6289.32
  30
           from 2005 to 2030.
                                                                                                                                              XOM Energy Outlook
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/87”      4166.12       6568.76     6548.29 2688
                                                           400                                                             and fuel types vary quite significantly
                                                                                                                                              For: GCG
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/88”      Turner/ Brian 6782.83817-332-4600
                                                                                                                                                    Scott 4352.68       Wilburn     6772.55 2747
                                           Industrial                   XOM Energy Outlook                                 in terms of the cost of CO2 avoided. XOMEO-CO2avoida
                                                                                                                                                              36B 7068.69
                                                                                                                                              File name: 4466.25 2010
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/89”                                6845.3  2698
  25                                                                Gas, nuclear and
                                                                        For: GCG                                                                          4565.81
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/90” file(s): None 7545.44          6483.14 2687
                                                                    wind areScott Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600 Only conventional vehicle4624.96
                                                                                                                                              Placed
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/91”
                                                                                                                                                           fuel-economy
                                                                                                                                                                        7676.27     6356.24 2714
                                                                    cost-effective
                                                                        File name:      36A 2010 XOMEO-CO2emissions.ai                                        ?? for lessLast updated: 12/16/
                                                                                                                           improvements enable avoidance 7737.39 6248.57 2595
                                                                                                                                              For page:
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/92”      4708.61
                                                           300      options forfile(s): None
                                                                        Placed                                                                Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
  20                                                                reducing CO2                                                                          . Use
                                                                                                                           than $100 per ton of CO24773.18 of full hybrid6149.79 2656
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/93”                    7764.45
                                                                                        ??                                                      ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphic
                                                                        For page:
                                                                    emissions, at less                     Last updated: 12/16/2010         “1/1/94”      4864.51 (c)7803.47        6263.66 2568
                                                                                                                           light duty vehicles costs up to $200 per ton  2010 ExxonMobil
                                                                    than $50 per Carol Zuber-Mallison
                                                                        Updated by:                    Biofuels,                            “1/1/95”      4997.97       7937.88     6526    2613
                                                                           avoided.                    plug-in
                                                                    ton ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics.com  of emissions avoided, while biofuels, plug- 6561.73 2746
                                                                                                                                               Usage:
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/96” Unlimited within ExxonMobil
                                                                                                                                                          5126.89       8188.52
  15
                                                                                                       hybrids,
                                                                                                (c) 2010 ExxonMobil
                                                           200                                         electric
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/97”      5253.58       8317.66
                                                                                                                           in hybrids and electric vehicles have even 6629.96 2637
                                    Power generation                                                   vehicles
                                                                        Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil                                  “1/1/98”      5381.24       8501.5      6583.32 2476
                                                                                                                           higher costs of CO2 avoidance. 8608.99 6391.12 2538
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/99”      5539.39
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/00”      5646.8        8908.23     6351.25 2545
  10                                                                           Solar,                  Full hybrids                         “1/1/01”      5667          9087.4      6297.88 2576
                                                                               CCS                                         Global CO2 emissions in the industrial
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/02”      5792.08       9311.72     6345.01 2572
                                                           100
                                                                                                                           and residential/commercial sectors are
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/03”      5930.27       9847.4      6686.58 2658
     5                                                                                                                                      “1/1/04”                    10361
                                                                                                                                                          6184.36 reflecting 7100.85        2684
                                                                                                       Conventional        projected to rise, but very slowly,
                                      Transportation                           Gas,                    vehicle                              “1/1/05”      6320.51       10829.1     7334.01 2689
                                                                               wind,                   fuel economy        increased electrification and a movement 7639.94 2643
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/06”      6489.5        11275.7
                                                                               nuclear                 improvements                         and other more 11772.8 7910.56 2586
                                                                                                                           away from coal “1/1/07” 6683.2 carbon-
     0                                                        0
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/08”      6718.03       11889.2     8029.32 2645
          1980               2005                 2030          Power generation        Transportation                     intensive fuels.
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/09”      6604.33       11660.3     8023.58 2586
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/10”      6753.84       12061.7     8047.21 2658
                  35000                                                                                                                     “1/1/11”      6907.67
                                                                                                                                                                    Power generatio
                                                                                                                                                                        12300.8     8118.11 2681
36       exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook                           Res/Comm                                                                    “1/1/12”      7044.11       12508.1     8172.95 2701
                                                                                                                                            “1/1/13”      7163.05       12702.2     8243.04 2725
                                                                                                                                                                    Transportation
    Globally, ExxonMobil
   has interests in nearly

  4,900
megawatts
of capacity for cogeneration –
 the simultaneous production
   of electricity and heat or
  steam that can be used for
      industrial purposes.

         More than

   6 million
     tons
  of CO2 emissions per year
   are avoided from these
         operations.




                                 ExxonMobil’s newest cogeneration
                                 facility in Antwerp, Belgium



                                  The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   37
         Supply
                                    As populations and economies grow, our demand for energy expands. At the same time,
                                    as new technologies are developed, our energy sources evolve – growing cleaner and more
                                    diverse. And we continue to find ways to use energy more efficiently. These concepts –
                                    expansion, evolution and efficiency – will continue to shape energy trends to 2030.




                                                                                               Q-Max LNG tanker transits the Suez Canal
                                                                                               en route to the United Kingdom




38   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook                                                                       The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   39
W
                                               Global demand by fuel
                                               Quadrillion BTUs
          ith the scale of the world’s
                                               250
energy needs already enormous, and                       Average
                                                        growth rate
global demand projected to rise by about                 per year           Demand for natural gas will
                                                           0.7%             rise by about 60 percent
35 percent from 2005 to 2030, it is clear      200
                                                                            from 2005 to 2030.
that all reliable, affordable energy sources
                                                                         2.0%
must be expanded in order to provide the                                                              Demand for coal rises, but its
                                               150                                                    share of global energy drops
energy needed for economic growth and                                                   0.7%          from about 25 percent
societal development.                                                                                 to about 20 percent.

                                               100
However, through 2030, there will be
some significant shifts in the composition
                                                                                                          0.4%         2.3%
of the world’s energy.                          50

                                                                                                                                       2.1%        9.9%
Oil, natural gas and coal will remain the
                                                 0
most significant energy sources. By 2030,
                                                       2005 2030       2005 2030    2005 2030      2005 2030       2005 2030       2005 2030   2005 2030
                                                           Oil            Gas          Coal       Biomass/waste      Nuclear       Hydro/Geo   Wind, Solar,
                                                                                                                                                 Biofuels




      Demand for all fuels
      to rise through 2030
                                                             250
                                                                                            Natural gas
                                                                           will be the fastest-growing major fuel source
      Energy from all sources will expand through       200                through 2030, with its share of global energy rising
      2030, but gains will be fastest for fuels with lower                              from about 20 percent to
      greenhouse gas emissions: natural gas, nuclear                                                                  “2030”
      and renewable fuels, such as wind and solar.
                                                        150
                                                                                   about 25 percent.
                                                                                                  “2005”
                                                             100
they will provide just under 80 percent of     These fuels are affordable, dependable                     transportation and substantial growth in
global energy, down slightly versus today.     and rely on proven technologies, so                        personal vehicle ownership in the Asia
                                                                  50
                                               their contribution can make a significant                  Pacific region are more than offsetting
But the fastest growing of these will          impact in terms of scale.                                  improved vehicle efficiency.
be natural gas. This rapid expansion of                            0
natural gas demand through 2030 will                                                Gas
                                               Another significant shiftOil the world’s
                                                                         in                               By 2030, natural gas Nuclear Hydro/Geo Solar, Biof
                                                                                                          Coal Biomass/Other have become
                                                                                                                               will         Wind,
be the result of two factors. One is a         energy mix through 2030 will be                            the second-largest global energy
steep rise in demand for fuel for power        tremendous growth in wind, solar and                       source, ahead of coal. Growth of this
generation and industry, particularly in Non   biofuels. In 2005, the contribution of these               cleaner-burning fuel is being aided by
OECD countries. The second is a shift          three fuels was negligible – at less than                  technologies that have unlocked vast new
away from coal in order to reduce CO2          half of 1 percent of total energy demand.                  supplies of natural gas, including shale
emissions, particularly in OECD countries.     By 2030, they will provide about 3 percent                 gas, tight gas and coal bed methane.
                                               of the world’s energy.                                     (See page 48 for more information on the
Those two factors – rising power-                                                                         outlook for natural gas supplies.)
generation demand and a desire to              Oil continues to be the world’s largest
reduce CO2 emissions – are also helping        energy source. About 85 percent of the                     The market share of coal will decline,
drive growth in nuclear power. Natural         projected growth in oil demand through                     particularly in the OECD, but this
gas and nuclear power offer cost-              2030 is tied to the transportation sector,                 abundant, affordable fuel will continue to
competitive solutions for meeting rising       where a steep rise in the use of heavy                     play a key role through 2030 and beyond.
demand while also reducing emissions.          duty trucks and other forms of commercial




40   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
         The coal shown here                                                                                                 Rail cars carry coal to
                                                                                                                             U.S. power facilities
            can meet the
    world’s coal demand
               for just over

    1 second.




Rising coal demand                                                                               Coal provides close to
driven by Non OECD                                                   25 percent of the world’s energy,
While coal’s share of the world’s energy demand is
declining, absolute demand continues to rise to meet                         and about 45 percent
power-generation needs in Non OECD countries.
                                                                       of fuel for power generation.


C
                                                                                                   Coal demand by region
                                                                                                   Billion tons
       oal was the fuel that powered the    Demand will be particularly strong in China
                                                                                                      6    OECD coal demand
start of the Industrial Revolution. But     and India, where coal consumption is expected                  declines by almost
as technologies evolved and now, as         to rise by nearly 60 percent and almost 95                     50 percent
                                                                                                           from 2005 to
concerns about CO2 emissions are rising,    percent, respectively, from 2005 to 2030.                 5
                                                                                                           2030; Non OECD                        Other
                                                                                                                                               Non OECD
we see the share of coal in the global                                                                     demand rises
                                                                                                           by more than
energy market declining. This trend is      However, most of the projected growth in                       60 percent.
                                                                                                                                                   India
expected to continue through 2030.          China’s coal demand has already occurred.                 4
                                            Demand will now grow less rapidly as the pace
However, coal continues to be a             of build-up of China’s national infrastructure
significant source of energy.               starts to flatten out, and the country diversifies        3

                                            the fuels used for power generation.                                                                   China

In OECD countries, demand for coal is
projected to decline through 2030, driven   India, on the other hand, will see strong                 2

by initiatives to increase the cost of      growth for coal throughout the period
CO2 emissions and difficulties obtaining    covered by The Outlook for Energy, with
                                                                                                                                                   Other
licenses to build new coal power plants.    demand nearly doubling. By 2030, India will               1
                                                                                                                                                  OECD
But that decline will be more than offset   account for more than 10 percent of global                                                            Europe

by expected strong growth in coal           coal consumption – the same amount used                                                                North
                                                                                                                                                  America
                                                                                                      0
demand in Non OECD countries, to serve      by the United States and all of the European
                                                                                                           1980                    2005                    2030
rapidly rising power-generation needs.      OECD countries combined.


                                                                                                                  The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030    41
O           il is the world’s single largest energy
source and will remain so through 2030.
                                                        Today, the world’s largest source of liquid
                                                        fuels is the crude oil and condensate
                                                                                                           and gains achieved via improved
                                                                                                           refinery processing.
Nearly all the world’s transportation runs              produced in Non OPEC countries. That
on liquid fuels because they provide a large            will continue to be true in 2030. However,         ExxonMobil expects that global production of
quantity of energy in small volumes, making             Non OPEC production of crude and                   liquid fuels, excluding OPEC crude, will grow
them easy to transport and widely available.            condensate is expected to be essentially           to about 67 MBDOE in 2030, as shown in
                                                        flat through 2030, as growth in certain            the lower shaded areas of the chart.
By 2030, global liquids demand will be the              areas – deepwater and oil sands – offsets
equivalent of slightly more than 100 million            declines in more conventional oil fields.          The difference between these supplies and
barrels per day (MBDOE), a rise of more                                                                    projected global demand is termed the “call
than 20 percent from 2005 demand of                     Therefore, growth in demand for liquid             on OPEC crude.” ExxonMobil projects the
84 MBDOE.                                               fuels through 2030 will need to be                 call on OPEC, currently around 29 MBDOE,
                                                        met by expanded production in OPEC                 to grow to about 36 MBDOE by 2030. We
This increase will be met nearly equally by             countries, as well as biofuels and other           expect that this production level will be
the Organization of Petroleum Exporting                 petroleum sources such as natural gas              achievable, given OPEC’s resource base
Countries (OPEC) and Non OPEC sources.                  liquids (NGLs), coal- and gas-to-liquids,          and incentives for development.




         Liquid fuels production                                                      Canadian oil sands and biofuels
                                                                            are examples of how energy sources can evolve over time.
         rises to meet demand                                               These two sources, whose contribution was negligible less
         Mostly because of growth in the transportation                             than a decade ago, will provide more than
         sector, global demand for crude oil and other
         liquid fuels will rise by more than 20 percent from
         2005 to 2030.
                                                                                                         5 percent
                                                                                    of the world’s demand for liquid fuels by 2030.


Liquids supply
                                                                             Rising global demand for
Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day
                                                                             liquid fuels from 2005 to        Natural gas liquids
                                                                                                             XOM Energy Outlook                      (NGLs)
 120                                                                         2030 will be met nearly         For: GCG
                                                                             equally by OPEC and Non               will play an increasingly
                                                                                                                  Scott Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600

                                                                             OPEC sources.                   File name:      42A 2010 XOMEO-LiquidsSupply.ai
                                                                                                                  large None
                                                                                                             Placed file(s): role in meeting the
                                                                             2030
 100
                                                                                                    OPEC                     need
                                                                                                              world’s ?? for liquid fuels.
                                                                                                             For page:                          Last updated: 12/16/2010
                                                                                                             Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
                                                                                                                 Global NGL output carol@zmgraphics.com
                                                                                                              ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • is seen
                                                         ~36                                        Non                              (c) 2010 ExxonMobil

  80
                                                                             2005                   OPEC      rising through 2030 to about

                                                                                                               11 million
                                                 ~35                                                         Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil


                                        ~29




                                                                                                                barrels
  60
                              ~27                               Biofuels

              OPEC crude                                        Other petroleum

                                                                                                                a day – an amount larger
  40
                                                                Canadian                                       than Saudi Arabia’s current
                                                                oil sands
                                                                                                                 oil production. By 2030,
  20
                                                                Non OPEC crude                                   more than 10 percent of
                                                                and condensate
                                                                                                                global liquid-fuel demand
     0
                                                                                                                   will be met by NGLs.
           1980     1990      2000      2010     2020    2030                          Supply



                                                                                                                                                                    120000
42       exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
Deepwater drilling: Safeguarding a valuable resource
Before April 2010, few people outside the energy industry gave        Deepwater outlook by region
much thought to the rapid growth in deepwater drilling and            Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day

development. But that changed with the Deepwater Horizon                14

tragedy in the Gulf of Mexico, which brought worldwide attention                    Over the past 20 years,
                                                                                    deepwater production has grown
to the increasingly important role that deepwater resources play        12          from virtually nothing to more                               Far East
in meeting global energy demand.                                                    than 5 percent of global
                                                                                    supply today, and we expect that
                                                                                    contribution to more than
In recent years, more than 14,000 wells have been drilled in            10          double by 2030, to reach
                                                                                    almost 14 MBDOE.                                             Africa
water depths of 2,500 feet or more, as technology
advancements have made previously unreachable reserves                   8
economically viable. According to Cambridge Energy Research                                                                                      Russia/
                                                                                                                                                 Caspian
Associates, global deepwater production has more than tripled
                                                                                                                                                 Europe
                                                                         6
since 2000 to approximately 5 million barrels a day – and could
possibly rise to as much as 10 million barrels a day by 2015.
Additionally, deepwater exploration has accounted for                                                                                            Latin
                                                                         4                                                                       America
approximately 50 percent of all global discoveries since 2006.

                                                                         2
The Gulf of Mexico is one of the three leading deepwater regions
in the world, along with West Africa and Brazil. Deepwater drilling                                                                              North
                                                                                                                                                 America
in the Gulf of Mexico currently accounts for 30 percent of all U.S.      0
crude oil production and is a key factor behind a recent drop                1990         2000         2010             2020         2030

in U.S. oil imports. In 2009, deepwater drilling helped the U.S.
increase domestic oil production for the first time since 1991.
                                                                      Through OIMS, we have documented standards for equipment
But oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico does more than       and well design, and proprietary technology to predict pressures
provide affordable energy to U.S. consumers. Offshore energy          and model resource flow. We carefully analyze that data to
production, including deepwater, accounts for approximately           reduce risk, and we ensure that everyone on board the rig,
170,000 direct and indirect jobs in the United States and             including contractors, knows their roles and responsibilities.
generates many millions of dollars in taxes, royalties and other      OIMS ensures that all operations are in compliance with
economic benefits to local and state communities.                     ExxonMobil’s standards.


Over the years, ExxonMobil has safely drilled more than               In addition to our own internal systems and processes,
250 deepwater wells, including 35 in the Gulf of Mexico.              ExxonMobil has joined together with other leading energy
Our experience has proven that with proper design, effective          companies to develop and deploy a new Marine Well
risk management, established procedures, built-in layers of           Containment System. This billion-dollar system will be available
redundancy, extensive testing, and an overarching focus on the        to our industry to respond more effectively to a deepwater
safe and effective maintenance and operation of equipment,            incident in the Gulf of Mexico, bringing our combined expertise,
tragic accidents need not occur.                                      equipment and technologies to bear quickly and efficiently.


For example, our Operations Integrity Management System               The new system will include a unique design capable of
(OIMS) – which we utilize on every operation we undertake,            containing up to 100,000 barrels of oil a day (with potential for
including deepwater drilling – is just one of the tools that          expansion) in water depths of up to 10,000 feet. It can begin
ExxonMobil uses to measure and mitigate safety, security, health      to be mobilized within 24 hours of an incident. ExxonMobil
and environmental risk. OIMS is a rigorous regime of 11 separate      is leading the design and development of this system, which
management elements that is deeply embedded into our culture,         should never be needed if everyone in the industry adheres to
giving our employees and contractors a common global language         the stringent standards already in place.
for safety and accountability.



                                                                                                                   The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   43
 Natural gas adapts to growing needs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1934 – Gas industry exhibit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               at the World’s Fair in Chicago               1959 – The Groningen field is discovered in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               features “Gas in the Home.”                  Netherlands, transforming the gas industry in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            western Europe. For more than 50 years, the field
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            has reliably supplied European customers with                                                                                                                                       2010 – The U.S. gas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            vast quantities of natural gas.                                                                                                                                                     pipeline network, laid
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                end-to-end, would
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                stretch to the moon
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                and back twice.


                                                                                                                                            1860 – Etienne Lenoir patents
                                                                                                                                            the gas engine. His experiments in
                                                                                                                                            France pave the way for gas-fired                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2006 – The first of Qatargas’ megatankers is delivered,
                                                                                                                                            power-generation equipment and                                                                                                                                                                                                                      taking LNG carrying capacity to previously unheard-of levels.
                                                                                                                                            the internal combustion engine,                                                                                                                                                                                                                     The tankers, known as Q-Flex and Q-Max, have capacities
  Pre-1800 – Natural gas has its                                                                                                            which is subsequently used for gas                                                                                                                                                                                                                  of 210,000 and 266,000 cubic meters, respectively.
  beginnings more than 2000 years                                                                                                           compression in pipeline systems.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1990 – The New York
  ago, when it was first utilized by the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mercantile Exchange
  Chinese for boiling sea water to make                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (NYMEX) launches the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  world’s first natural gas
  it drinkable. But it wasn’t until the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           futures market.
  1800s that the world began to realize
  the potential of gas – for lighting,
  cooking, heating and beyond.                               1852 – For the first time, gas lights                                                                               1904 – European and American utility
                                                             outnumber oil lamps in New York City.                                                                               companies begin to use gas for central
                                                                                                                                                                                 heating and large-scale hot water supplies.




                   1800
          In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, several
                                                                                                      By 1850, gas was predominantly used as a fuel for
                                                                                                      gas lamps to light homes and city streets. At the
                                                                                                      same time, mid-century entrepreneurs promoted gas
                                                                                                      as a source of heat, paving the way for gas-fueled
                                                                                                                                                                                 1900
                                                                                                                                                                                 The 20th century brought the introduction of lengthy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    By the middle of the 20th century, natural gas was being
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    used across all sectors, and demand was growing rapidly.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Advances in gas liquefaction and transcontinental pipelines
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                The use of lower-carbon fuels like natural gas to help reduce greenhouse gas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    enabled long-distance transport, and gas became a globally
          cities on the U.S. east coast and in Europe began to                                        cooking and heating appliances.                                            steel pipelines that allowed gas to be safely carried                                                                                                                          emissions is essential to meet our current and future energy challenges. Given its
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    rather than a regionally traded energy supply.
          use gas, either manufactured from burning coal or                                                                                                                      under higher pressures, thus in greater quantities, to                                                                                                                         abundance and properties as a clean-burning fuel, expanded use of natural gas –




                                                                                                      1850                                                                                                                                                                 1950                                                                                                                                                                                                      2030
          originating from natural seeps.                                                                                                                                        fuel industrial, commercial and residential needs.                                                                                                                             particularly in power generation – can not only help meet growing demand for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                electricity, but also enable advancement of environmental goals.



                                                    1821 – The first well specifically intended to                  1880 – The first natural gas                                                                                     1925 – The first                    1959 – World’s first            1969 – Japan begins imports of                                          1998 – The U.K.-Continent                     2002 – Reliance Industries
                                                    obtain natural gas is dug in Fredonia, N.Y., in                 compressor station is put into                                                                                   long-distance, welded               liquefied natural gas           Alaskan LNG, while Brunei becomes                                       Interconnector, one of the                    discovers gas in the Krishna                          Global gas demand by end use
                                                    what is today known as the Marcellus Shale.                     operation by the Bradford Gas                                                                                    steel pipeline is built by          (LNG) tanker carries            the first LNG producer in Asia Pacific                                  most important European                       Godavari offshore basin in India.                     Billions of cubic feet per day
                                                                                                                    Company in Pennsylvania.                                                                                         Magnolia Gas of Dallas,             2,000 tons of gas from          to supply Japan.                                                        infrastructure projects in recent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Texas, stretching from              the U.S. to the United                                                                                  years, commences operation.                   2006 – China imports its                                                                      500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     northern Louisiana to               Kingdom. LNG transport                                                                                                                                first LNG cargo.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Beaumont, Texas.                    further expands the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         market for gas and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         enables it to become a                                                     1983 – The U.S. government
                                                                                                                    1880 – Manufacturers begin                                                                                                                           globally traded fuel.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1938 – The U.S. Congress                                                                                       completes the process of                                                                                                                                                 400
                                                                                                                    selling gas appliances –                                                                                                                                                                                                        deregulating the natural
                                                                                                                    mostly cooking stoves and                                                                                        passes the Natural Gas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Act, marking the entrance                                                                                      gas industry by passing
                                                                                                                    water heaters – to consumers                                                                                                                                                                                                    the Natural Gas Wellhead
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     of the federal government           1964 – First commercial-                                                                                                                                                                                                   Power generation
                                                                                                                    in Europe and North America.                                                                                                                                                                                                    Decontrol Act (NGWDA).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     into the field of regulatory        scale LNG plant is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     and price control of the            commissioned in Arzew,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     natural gas industry.               Algeria. Long-term
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             300
                                                                       1859 – Natural gas from the first
         1812 – The British Parliament grants a charter to                                                                                                                                                                                                               supply contracts are
                                                                       oil well drilled by Colonel Edwin
         the London and Westminster Gas Light & Coke                                                                                                                                                                                                                     quickly signed with the
                                                                       Drake is transported via a small,
         Company, and the first gas company in the world                                                                                                                                                                             1940 – The first gas-               U.K. and France.
                                                                       rudimentary pipeline to the village
         comes into being.                                             of Titusville, Penn. The construction                                                                                                                         powered turbine to
                                                                       of this pipeline proves that natural                                                                                                                          generate electricity for                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                200
                                                                       gas can be brought safely from the                                                                                                                            public use is operated
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1968 – Austria                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Industrial
                                                                       underground source to be used for                                                                                                                             at a power station in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         becomes the first
                                                                       practical purposes.                                                                                                                                           Switzerland.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Western European
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         country to negotiate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Transportation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         a gas contract for                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Russian supplies.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Residential/commercial

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0
1800                                                                                                                 1850                                                                                            1900                                                                                                          1950                                                                                              2000                                                                             2030
  44   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
The expansion of natural gas – both in its application across sectors, as
well as in the quantity of available, affordable supplies – is a prime example
of how technological advances have enabled energy sources to adapt to
the world’s changing needs.




  Natural gas power plant
  in the USA




It’s clear that changes in energy use     become an essential fuel for meeting      America, expanding opportunities
and technology development reflect        our energy challenges, and now            for developed and developing
an evolutionary process that spans        provides more than 20 percent of          nations to capture the benefits of
decades. Over time, however, the          global energy demand worldwide.           gas as a reliable, affordable energy
process leads to revolutionary impacts.                                             source that will also help support
                                          Looking out to 2030, ExxonMobil           environmental improvements. These
What began as a fuel to provide light     expects gas to play an even larger role   advances are part of the evolution
has today evolved into a powerful tool    as the world’s energy mix continues to    that is contributing to the growth of
for meeting rising demand for energy,     grow more diverse. Recent technology      gas as a key fuel source globally. By
while also helping to curb growth in      advances have expanded economic           2030, we expect that gas will supply
energy-related CO2 emissions. Over        supplies of LNG and unlocked vast         more than 25 percent of the world’s
the last 100 years, natural gas has       resources of shale gas in North           energy needs.




                                                                                        The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   47
Natural gas supply                                                                         Growth in supply of natural gas versus 2005
Billions of cubic feet per day                                                             Billions of cubic feet per day
 500                                                                                        200
                  Imports include both LNG
                  and gas transported via                                                             Growth in demand will be
                  inter-regional pipeline.                                                            met almost equally by
                                                                     Imports
                                                                                                      domestic conventional,
 400
                                                                                                      domestic unconventional
                                                                                            150
                                                                                                      and import supplies.
                                                                                                                                                                           Imports
                                                                     Domestic
                                                                     unconventional
 300

                                                                                                                                                                           Other
                                                                                            100
                                                                                                                                      XOM Energy Outlook domestic
                                                                                                                                                                           unconventional
                                                                                                                                      For: GCG
 200                                                                                                                                       Scott Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
                                                                                                                                      File name:                      U.S. and
                                                                                                                                                         48A 2010 XOMEO-NatGasSupply.ai
                                                                                                                                                                      Canada
                                                        Other                                                                         Placed file(s):    None         unconventional
                                                                                              50
                                                                     Domestic                                                         For page:          ??          Last updated: 12/16/2010
 100                                                                 conventional
                                                                                                                                      Updated by:        Carol Zuber-Mallison
                                                                                                                                                                    • carol@zmgraphics.com
                                                                                                                                         ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162Total
                                                                                                                                                              (c) 2010 ExxonMobil
                                                       Europe                                                                                                              domestic
                                                                                                                                                                           conventional
     0                                           North America                                 0                                      Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil

               2005                                         2030                                      2010              2015      2020            2025         2030




           Technology expands cleaner-                                                                            Producing electricity using a
                                                                                                          natural gas combined-cycle turbine 1/1/10 8
                                                                                                                                                      Total Local Conventiona
                                                                                                                                               is about
           burning natural gas supply
                                                                                                                  200




                                                                                                                30 percent
                                                                                                                                              1/1/15 21.2
                                                                                                                                                    Imports
                                                                                                                                                                       1/1/20        32.8
                                                                                                                                                                       1/1/25        40.6
           New technologies – including horizontal drilling and                                                                                                        1/1/30        54.2
         500hydraulic fracturing – are safely expanding supplies of                                                                        Other Local UnConventional
                                                World Imports North America Conventional         Europe Conventional RoW Conventional                                   World Local Unconventional   World I
           natural gas around the world.                      “1/1/05”
                                                              “1/1/06”
                                                                         57
                                                                         54.8
                                                                                                    150
                                                                                                 29.9
                                                                                                 29.6
                                                                                                                               more efficient
                                                                                                                                     146.2
                                                                                                                                     151.6
                                                                                                                                                                        16.7
                                                                                                                                                                        18.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                     42.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                     43.7
         400                                             World Local Unconventional
                                                              “1/1/07”   56.7                    29.7         than using a state-of-the art coal plant.
                                                                                                                                     153.9 US & Canada Local Unconventional
                                                                                                                                                                        21.4                         49.3
                                                              “1/1/08”   53.4                    29.3                                161.1                              26.1                         48.3
                                                              “1/1/09”   49.6                    28.2                                158.9                              29.2                         44.2
                                                              “1/1/10”   46.2                    27.6
                                                                                                    100                              167.2 Total Local Conventional 30.8                             51.8
                                                         RoW Conventional

N
                                                              “1/1/11”   43                      27.9                                172.2                              32.4                         56.9
         300                                                  “1/1/12”
                                                              “1/1/13”
                                                                         42
                                                                         41.1
                                                                                                 28
                                                                                                 28.4
                                                                                                                                     176
                                                                                                                                     180.3
                                                                                                                                                                        34.9
                                                                                                                                                                        37.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                     59.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                     61.4
               atural gas will be the fastest-           Europe Conventional
                                                          liquefy natural39.7 so that it can be safely
                                                              “1/1/14”
                                                              “1/1/15”
                                                                          gas
                                                                         38.4
                                                                                                 28.7
                                                                                                 28.4
                                                                                                                     Globally, 183.5  unconventional gas production
                                                                                                                                     187.4
                                                                                                                                                                        40
                                                                                                                                                                        42.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                     64.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                     66.9
growing major fuel through 2030. Gas is                   and“1/1/16”
                                                               economically transported by tanker,
                                                                         37.2                    29 50               is projected to grow fivefold from 2005
                                                                                                                                     191.3                              44.3                         68.9
         200
attractive because of its environmental
                                                              “1/1/17”   36
                                                          today there is 35 large and growing market
                                                                          a
                                                                                                 28.4                                195.7
                                                                                                                                       The
                                                                                                                     to 2030. 199.7 largest growth by far is in
                                                                                                                                                                        46.4                         71.2
                                                         North America Conventional
                                                              “1/1/18”                           28                                                                     48.5                         74
benefits, large resource base and                             “1/1/19”
                                                          for LNG.       34.1                    27                                  203.4
                                                                                                                     the United States, where unconventional            51.2                         77.5
                                                              “1/1/20”   34.4                    26.1                                205.4                              55.4                         79.9
flexibility as an efficient fuel in the power-                “1/1/25”   33.7                    19.8                production meets well over half of U.S.
                                                                                                                                     220.1                              69.5                         94.7
         100                                                  “1/1/30”   32.9                    17.60                               236.8                              83.3                         104.1
generation, industrial and residential/                   Expansion of the LNG market is one                         gas demand by 2030.
                                                                                                        1/1/10 1/1/15 1/1/20 1/1/25 1/1/30

commercial sectors.                                       reason why imports are expected to

          0                                               account for a larger share of natural gas                            Domestic conventional supplies will
Around the world, new technologies are                    demand through 2030.                                                 continue to dominate globally through
expanding production of natural gas and                                                                                        2030, but they decline in North America
delivering this cleaner-burning fuel to                   But the fastest-growing source of global                             and Europe. In 2005, domestic
utilities and other customers who need it.                natural gas supply is unconventional gas,                            conventional gas made up 80 percent
                                                          a term that refers to natural gas produced                           of total supplies. But, by 2030, that
For example, up until relatively recently,                using combinations of both new and                                   share declines to about 60 percent,
natural gas imports were mainly limited                   existing technologies that have enabled                              with unconventional gas and imports
to gas that could be transported across                   producers to economically reach supplies                             supplying the remainder.
borders by pipeline. But because of                       found in tight rock and shale, as well as
advances in the technologies used to                      coal bed methane.




48       exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
                                                                                                        Natural gas drilling rig in Marcellus
                                                                                                        Shale, Pennsylvania, USA




Integrating technologies to produce more natural gas
In many countries around the world, natural gas has the                 Developing these U.S. resources is important for a number of
potential to meet a growing share of energy needs. The United           reasons. First, they are abundant. Shale formations are found
States, for example, sits atop tremendous resources, with               everywhere from Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas to the upper
several recent studies showing that the domestic natural gas            Midwest, and from Colorado to West Virginia, Pennsylvania
endowment is plentiful enough to provide 100 years of supply            and New York. And the industry continues to find more –
at current demand levels.                                               total U.S. natural gas resource estimates have increased
                                                                        35 percent in just the last two years.
The challenge is that much of the United States’ onshore natural
gas resources are locked away in difficult-to-reach formations,         Second, natural gas is cleaner-burning. When used to generate
such as shale and tight gas. While recovering them has long been        electricity, for example, natural gas can reduce CO2 emissions
technically possible, it has not always been cost-effective.            by up to 60 percent versus coal. Additional comparative benefits
                                                                        of natural gas production exist as well. Ten times as much
These so-called “unconventional” resources can only be produced         water is required to produce the equivalent amount of energy
using a process called hydraulic fracturing – a technique that          from coal, and ethanol production can require as much as a
allows natural gas to move more freely (from the rock pores where       thousand times more water to yield the same amount of energy.
it is trapped) to a producing well so that it can be brought to the
surface. Hydraulic fracturing involves injecting a solution that is     Finally, natural gas is vital to economic development. The
primarily water and sand – mixed with a small amount of chemicals       natural gas industry contributed $385 billion to the U.S.
often found in swimming pools, dish detergents and other                economy in 2008 alone, supporting more than 2.8 million
common uses – to open up cracks in rock formations that allow           jobs (including 620,000 direct jobs), according to a recent
the natural gas to migrate to the well.                                 study by Cambridge Energy Research Associates.


Hydraulic fracturing isn’t new. It’s been used safely and effectively   What can the nation do to maximize the benefit of its natural
for more than 60 years. During that time, more than 1 million wells     gas resources? To begin with, we must let natural gas
around the world have been drilled using hydraulic fracturing.          compete with other lower-emitting electricity feedstocks
                                                                        such as renewables, clean coal and nuclear without setting
What is new, however, is the use of multiple technologies in            mandates or preferences. And we must ensure that access
conjunction with one another to make unconventional gas                 to these resources remains open.
more economically viable. By combining developments such
as horizontal drilling and multi-zone stimulation with hydraulic        Most importantly, we need to maintain stable, predictable
fracturing, companies such as ExxonMobil can safely produce             regulatory frameworks that allow for long-term natural gas
affordable, reliable quantities of natural gas from previously          investment. Doing so will encourage sound development
untapped reservoirs – powering electrical-generation plants,            of unconventional resources and allow the economic and
manufacturing facilities, homes and businesses.                         environmental benefits to flow to communities across the
                                                                        United States.


                                                                                                         The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   49
I    n many regions, growing demand for
natural gas is coming from the power-
                                                       industrial sectors, where distribution
                                                       lines are being rapidly expanded and
                                                                                                              power-generation sector and the
                                                                                                              industrial sector, primarily for chemicals.
generation sector.                                     gas is very competitive versus other
                                                       major fuels.                                           Natural gas continues to gain prominence
This is especially true in North America,                                                                     as a major source of energy for the world.
where ample gas supplies provide                       In India, more than half the projected                 This trend is in keeping with the history of
a competitive alternative to coal                      growth in gas demand is coming from                    the natural gas industry, which has long
for power generation as CO2 costs                      the industrial sector, where gas provides              exhibited an ability to adapt to growing
increase due to government policies                    the energy to produce steel and other                  needs as societies developed and new
aiming to reduce emissions.                            essential products.                                    technologies emerged.


But in other regions, other factors are                Gas is also used as a raw material
at work. For example, China’s growing                  for products such as paint, fertilizer
demand for natural gas is driven more                  and plastics. And in the Middle East,
by the residential/commercial and                      demand grows rapidly in both the




         Natural gas demand                                                                                     By 2030,
                                                                                     China’s demand for natural gas
         to grow in all regions                                                                             will be more than

                                                                                                   6 times
         While demand for natural gas is rising all around
         the world, growth is strongest in Non OECD
         countries and, in particular, China.
                                                                                                      what it was in 2005.


Natural gas demand growth 2005-2030
Billions of cubic feet per day (BCFD)
                                                                                                                          “Other Non OECD”
  40                                                                                                                      reflects strong
                                                                                                                          growth primarily in
                       Natural gas demand is                                                                              other Asia Pacific
                       growing fastest in the                                                                             countries such as
                       Non OECD, with demand                                                                              Indonesia, Thailand
                       up over 130 BCFD                                                                                   and Malaysia.
  30                   from 2005 to 2030.
                       OECD gas demand rises
                       by almost 50 BCFD.




  20

                                                                                                                                                Demand growth
                                                                                                                                                for natural gas
                                                                                                                                                in all other sectors



  10



                                                                                                                                                Demand growth
                                                                                                                                                for natural gas
                                                                                                                                                in power generation

     0

           North America   Europe OECD    Other OECD   China          India   Latin America   Middle East        Africa     Other Non OECD




50       exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook

                                                                                 XOM Energy Outlook
   The gas processed
by the Ras Laffan Train 5
 LNG facility in one year
  could provide enough
   energy to electrify

  every
household
 in the world for
    one week.




              LNG production train in
              Ras Laffan, Qatar



   The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030   51
Rising to the challenge: Actions for 2030 and beyond


I    n many ways, the challenges
addressed by this Outlook for Energy are
                                              Global demand by fuel
                                              Percent                                                                                       Biomass/
                                                                                                                                            waste
no different from ones that individuals and   100
                                                                                                                                            Other
nations have faced over the past century,                                                                                                   renewables
when the world experienced dramatic                                                                                                         Hydro
                                                  80
changes in energy-related technologies                                                                                                      Nuclear

and the types of energy used.
                                                                                                                                            Coal
                                                  60
People and societies continue to require
affordable, reliable energy to enable
advancement and prosperity. New                                                                                                             Gas
                                                  40
technologies must continue to improve
efficiency and boost supplies to help meet
rising demand. And energy must continue           20
to be developed safely and with concern                                                                                                     Oil
for the environment.
                                                  0

It’s clear that significant shifts in the              1850                 1900                 1950                 2000       2030
                                                  Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil
composition of the world’s energy have
taken place over decades. Today, we
must also recognize that the scale of our     • Expand all economic energy                              To provide solutions of the scale
energy and environmental challenges                            100
                                                   sources: oil, natural gas and coal, as               embodied by this Outlook for Energy,
continues to grow.                                 well as nuclear and renewable fuels.                 the world will need tremendous levels
                                                                                                        of investment, sustained over decades;
There are almost 7 billion people in the      •                80
                                                   Accelerate gains in efficiency.                      an unwavering drive for innovation and
world today, rising to 8 billion by 2030.          Better efficiency is projected to reduce             new technology; and reliable policies that
Four-fifths live in Non OECD countries,            global energy demand growth by almost                promote a level playing field for pursuing
where per-capita energy use still is                             60
                                                   65 percent through 2030, slowing                     all commercially viable energy solutions.
relatively low, but where better access            growth in CO2 emissions in the process.
to modern energy is helping boost                                                                       A lot can happen in 20 years. And, as this
living standards and expand prosperity.       •
                                                             40
                                                   Reduce CO emissions
                                                                 2                                      Outlook for Energy envisions, ExxonMobil
Continuing progress through 2030 will              through better efficiency, new                       expects that people will continue to
drive significant increases in energy              technologies and a shift to cleaner                  advance a wide variety of energy and
demand.
                                                                     20
                                                   fuels such as natural gas.                           technology solutions to sustain and
                                                                                                        expand progress around the world.
ExxonMobil projects global energy
                                                                      0
                                              • Develop new energy technologies.
demand to rise by 35 percent from 2005                             will continue to 1900
                                                   Human ingenuity1850                                     1950              2000 2030
to 2030, even with substantial gains in            make a powerful contribution to solving
efficiency across all regions around               the world’s energy challenges. For
the world.                                         example, technologies enabling
                                                   economic production of shale gas, tight
Meeting this demand, safely and with               gas and coal bed methane are unlocking
minimal environmental impact, will require         important new options for meeting
an integrated set of solutions, including:         energy and environmental goals.




52   exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
ExxonMobil’s The Outlook for Energy

                                                                                                       Average Annual Change
                                                Energy Demand (Quadrillion BTUs)                       1980-   2005-   2010-      Share of Total
    Regions                             1980    1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030                          2005    2030    2030       2005 2030
                                                                                                                                                         Glossary
    World                                296     359      414     469      506      575     636         1.9%       1.2%   1.2%    100%    100%
    OECD                                 169     190      224     233      223      230     230         1.3%       0.0%   0.2%     50%    36%            ExxonMobil’s Outlook for
    Non OECD                             127     170      190     237      282      346     406         2.5%       2.2%   1.8%    50%     64%            Energy contains global
    North America                        87      95       114     116      111      113     113         1.2%      -0.1%   0.1%    25%     18%            projections for the period
      United States                      75      81        96      97       92       92      91         1.1%      -0.3%   0.0%    21%     14%            2005-2030. In the Outlook,
    Latin America                        13      15        20      22       26       32      39         2.2%       2.4%   2.1%     5%      6%            we refer to standard units
    Europe                               67      74        79      83       80       82      83         0.9%       0.0%   0.2%    18%     13%            for the measurement of
      European Union                     63      68        72      76       73       73      73         0.7%      -0.1%   0.0%    16%     11%            energy:
    Russia/Caspian                       46      57        38      41       40       42      45        -0.5%      0.4%    0.6%     9%      7%
    Africa                               13      17        22      26       28       34      42        2.8%       2.0%    2.1%     5%      7%            BCFD. Billion cubic feet
    Middle East                           8      11        18      23       29       36      42        4.3%       2.5%    2.0%     5%      7%
                                                                                                                                                         per day. This is used to
    Asia Pacific                         63      91       124     159      193      235     273        3.8%       2.2%    1.7%    34%     43%
                                                                                                                                                         measure volumes of natural
      China                              23      33       44      69       92       114     132        4.4%       2.7%    1.8%    15%     21%
                                                                                                                                                         gas. One BCFD of natural
      India                               8      13       19      22       28       35      45         3.9%       3.0%    2.4%     5%      7%
                                                                                                                                                         gas can heat approximately
                                                                                                                                                         5 million homes in the U.S.
    World Energy by Type
    Primary                              296     359      414     469      506      575     636         1.9%       1.2%   1.2%    100%    100%           for one year. Six BCFD of
    Oil                                  128     136      156     171      173      191     204         1.2%       0.7%   0.8%    36%      32%           natural gas is equivalent to
    Gas                                  54      72       89      101      112      138     164         2.5%       2.0%   1.9%    21%     26%            about 1 MBDOE.
    Coal                                 70      86       90      112      128      133     134         1.9%       0.7%   0.2%    24%     21%
    Nuclear                               7      21       27      29       28       38       50         5.6%       2.3%   2.9%     6%      8%            BTU. British thermal unit.
    Biomass/Waste                        29      36       41      44       47       48      48          1.6%       0.4%   0.1%     9%      8%            A BTU is a standard unit
    Hydro                                 6       7        9      10       11       14      16          2.2%       2.0%   2.0%     2%      3%            of energy that can be used
    Other Renewables                      0       1        3       3        7       13      20          8.0%       7.4%   5.8%     1%      3%            to measure any type of
                                                                                                                                                         energy source. It takes
    End-Use Sectors – World                                                                                                                              approximately 400,000
    Industrial
                                                                                                                                                         BTUs per day to run the
    Total                                124     138      148     169      185      206     227         1.2%       1.2%   1.0%    100%    100%
                                                                                                                                                         average North American
    Oil                                  47      45       50      55       56       61       65         0.7%       0.7%   0.7%    33%      29%
    Gas                                  28      30       38      40       43       51      60          1.5%       1.6%   1.7%    24%     27%
                                                                                                                                                         household. (Quad refers to
    Coal                                 27      29       25      32       38       38      35          0.8%       0.4%   -0.4%   19%     16%            quadrillion BTUs.)
    Electricity                          14      18       21      25       30       38      47          2.5%       2.5%   2.3%    15%     21%
    Other                                 9      15       14      16       18       19      19          2.1%       0.7%   0.3%    10%      8%            Watt. A unit of electrical
                                                                                                                                                         power, equal to one joule
    Residential/Commercial                                                                                                                               per second. A 1-GW
    Total                                71       87      98      107      111      124     134         1.6%       0.9%    1.0%   100%    100%           power plant can meet
    Oil                                  14       13      16      16       15       15      15          0.7%      -0.2%    0.0%   15%     11%
                                                                                                                                                         the electricity demand of
    Gas                                  13       17      21      22       24       28      32          2.1%       1.4%    1.4%   21%     24%
                                                                                                                                                         approximately 500,000
    Biomass/Waste                        23       26      29      31       32       31      29          1.3%      -0.3%   -0.5%   29%     22%
                                                                                                                                                         homes in the U.S.
    Electricity                          10       16      23      27       30       39      49          4.0%       2.4%    2.5%   26%     37%
                                                                                                                                                         (Kilowatt (KW) = 1,000
    Other                                11       15      9       10       10       10       9         -0.6%      -0.2%   -0.2%    9%      7%
                                                                                                                                                         watts; Gigawatt (GW) =
    Transportation                                                                                                                                       1,000,000,000 watts;
    Total                                53       65      80       90       96      112     124         2.2%       1.3%   1.3%    100%    100%           Terawatt (TW) = 1012 watts)
    Oil                                  51       64      79       88       92      106     115         2.2%       1.1%   1.1%    98%      93%
    Other                                2        1       1        2        4        6       9          1.3%       5.7%   3.8%     2%      7%            MBDOE. Million barrels
                                                                                                                                                         per day of oil-equivalent.
    Power Generation – World                                                                                                                             This term provides a
    Primary                              78      118      143     169      187      224     261         3.1%       1.7%    1.7%   100%    100%
                                                                                                                                                         standardized unit of
    Oil                                  17      15       12      12       10        9       9         -1.3%      -1.2%   -0.6%    7%      3%
                                                                                                                                                         measure for different types
    Gas                                  13      24       30      38       44       58      70          4.2%       2.5%   2.4%    22%     27%
                                                                                                                                                         of energy sources (oil,
    Coal                                 34      48       61      76       87       93      97          3.3%       1.0%   0.6%    45%     37%
                                                                                                                                                         gas, coal, etc.) based on
    Nuclear                              7       21       27      29       28       38      50          5.6%       2.3%   2.9%    17%     19%
    Hydro                                6        7        9      10       11       14      16          2.2%       2.0%   2.0%     6%      6%
                                                                                                                                                         energy content relative to
    Wind                                 0        0        0       0        1        4       7         44.2%      12.8%   9.3%     0%      3%            a typical barrel of oil. One
    Other Renewables                     1        3        4       5        6        8      11          7.1%      3.4%    3.1%     3%      4%            MBDOE is enough energy
                                                                                                                                                         to fuel about 3 percent of
                                                Electricity Demand (Terawatt Hours)                                                                      the vehicles on the world’s
    World                               7139    10136 13163 15657 17845 23061 28628                     3.2%       2.4%   2.4%    100%    100%           roads today.
    OECD                                4948    6630 8559 9307 9352 10668 11744                         2.6%       0.9%   1.1%     59%     41%
    Non OECD                            2192    3506 4604 6351 8493 12393 16884                         4.3%       4.0%   3.5%     41%     59%


                                      Energy-Related CO2 Emissions (Billion Metric Tons)
    World                              18.6   21.3 23.5    27.2   29.5     32.5 34.6                    1.5%       1.0%    0.8%   100%    100%
    OECD                               11.0   11.3 12.7    13.2   12.4     12.0 11.0                    0.7%      -0.7%   -0.6%   49%     32%
    Non OECD                            7.6   10.0 10.7    14.0   17.2     20.6 23.6                    2.5%      2.1%    1.6%    51%     68%

Rounding of data in the Outlook may result in slight differences between totals and the sum of individual components.



                                                                                                                                            The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030      53
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