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					          Centre for the Study of Public Policy
                 www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp                   CSP
1.
       THE CHANGING NATURE OF EUROPE:                  P
      A POST-TRANSFORMATION ANALYSIS


           PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE

     Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy



        University of Heidelberg 15 May 2009
2.                   WHAT IS EUROPE WHEN?

ALTERNATIVE 20th CENTURY DEFINITIONS OF EUROPE

♦1900: UNDEMOCRATIC MULTI-NATIONAL EMPIRES. E.g. Tsarist, Prussian,
Habsburg, etc.

♦1919: VERSAILLES TREATY: Undemocratic nation-states.

♦1948: IRON CURTAIN. Democratic nation-states = Western Europe
                Socialist "democracy" = Eastern Europe in Soviet bloc
                Mitteleuropa disappears

♦1989: BERLIN WALL FALLS. Central Europe re-appears. More nation-states
recognised. Democracy remains.

             (See R Rose, What Is Europe (Pearson, Longman, 1996)
3.
4.   STAGES OF TRANSFORMATION--AND ITS AFTERMATH

      1. The legacy of an anti-modern party-state

      2. Disruption of Polity, Economy, Society, State

      3. Bottom up responses: Coping strategies and adaptation

      4. Seizing opportunities

      5. Q. Where are we now?

       A. A stable state –but not a static state
5.    MAKING PROGRESS AND FALLING BEHIND.
                           1949     1960    1970   1980    1989      Change
                                  Female life expectancy (years)
Germany: East                69       72      72      75      76              7
Germany: West                67       72      73      76      79          12
Austria                      67       72      73      76      79          12
Czechoslovakia               65       73      73      74      75          10
Hungary                      63       70      72      73      74          11
Poland                       62       70      73      75      75          13

Sources: UN, World Health, OECD health statistics; UN Demographic Yearbook,
1979, special historical supplement; UNICEF International Child Development
Centre, Children at Risk in Central and Eastern Europe, 1997, p. 123.
6.        ASPIRATION: RETURN TO MITTELEUROPA
                       Czechoslovakia     Hungary     Poland    Average

                              %              %          %          %
Germany                      31              38         37         35
Sweden                       32              34         21         29
United States                14              10         30         18
Italy                         9               9          0         6
France                        5               2          7         5
Britain                       3               3          3         3
Other                         6               2          2         3
Soviet Union                  0               1          0         0.3

Source: Freedom House, Democracy, Economic Reform and Western Assistance:
Data Tables, 1991, p. 154.
7. MORE FREEDOM IN POST-COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
                    Speech       Join     Travel     No fear     Interest       Religion        Avg.
                                 org.                arrest       politics
                                  (% feeling freer now than under Communist regime)
    New EU countries
Bulgaria                    90     95        95           88           97             98         94
Romania                     94     94        90           81           92             95         91
Czech Republic           84        90        96           73           84             94         87
Slovakia                    82     88        88           62           80             96         83
Lithuania                   87     90        68           66           89             91         82
Estonia                     90     88        69           63           83             82         79
Hungary                     73     81        76           59           na             83         74
Poland                      83     78        75           71           69             70         74
Latvia                      82     81        40           49           80             82         69
Slovenia                    74     82        62           54           59             77         68
    Post-Soviet countries
Ukraine                     79     76        49           42           60             84         65
Belarus                     73     74        48           37           57             87         63
Russia                      73     77        47           29           62             83         62
Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Europe Barometer, 1993, including Belarus,
   Ukraine; New Russia Barometer, 1993.
8. ECONOMIC RECOVERY
 Gross domestic product
 1990: 100                                                                          Poland
 200%
 190%                         % 1990 real GDP                                       Slovenia
 180%
 170%                                                                               Slovakia
 160%
                                                                                    Estonia
 150%
 140%                                                                               Czech R
 130%
 120%                                                                               Hungary
 110%
                                                                                    Lithuania
 100%
  90%                                                                               Romania
  80%
  70%                                                                               Latvia
  60%
  50%                                                                               Bulgaria
     1994'95 '96 '97 '98 '992000'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '072008

  Source: EBRD, Transition Report, 2001, Economic Statistics and Forecasts,
  http://www.ebrd.com/country/sector/econo/stats/index.htm, last updated November 2008,
  accessed 18 April 2009; 2007 figures are estimates, 2008 figures forecasts.
9. IMPROVEMENTS IN HEALTH
                                            Male life expectancy in years
                               1990            Fall (year)          Peak (year)         2005
    New EU countries
Slovenia                       69.4                     0          +3.8 (2003)          73.2
Czech Republic                 68.1                     0          +4.0 (2001)          72.0
Poland                         66.5            -0.4 (1991)         +4.3 (2005)          70.8
Slovakia                       66.6                     0          +3.5 (2005)          70.1
Bulgaria                       68.1            -1.0 (1995)         +0.9 (2005)          69.0
Hungary                        65.1            -0.6 (1993)         +3.5 (2004)          68.6
Romania                        66.6            -1.4 (1997)         +2.2 (2005)          68.2
Estonia                        64.6            -3.5 (1995)         +2.7 (2005)          67.3
Latvia                         64.2            -3.5 (1994)         +2.9 (2004)          67.1
Lithuania                      66.4            -3.8 (1994)         +0.4 (2000)          66.4
    Post-Soviet countries
Belarus                        66.3            -4.1 (1999)          -2.9 (2000)         62.9
Ukraine                        66.0            -5.0 (1996)          -3.0 (1998)         62.2
Russia                         63.8            -6.2 (1994)          -2.5 (1998)         58.9
Source: MONEE project, Innocenti Social Monitor (2007), Table 4.3. Latest figures for
Latvia and Lithuania are from 2004.
10. DIVERGENCE OF POST-COMMUNIST STATES
                   New EU                                 Post-Soviet
                             Perception of
                           Corruption Index
                                               10

                                               9

                                               8

                                               7
                                                                                         Sve
                                                                                         Est
                                               6
               Freedom House rating                                                      Hun
                                                                                         Cze
                                               5                                         Svk
                                                               Arm            Bul        Lat, Lit
                                                                        Rom              Pol
                                               4
                                                    Mol        Geo
                                               3
    7         Bel          Rus 5                           3                         1
        Tur                                    2                Ukr
        Uzb              Aze, Kaz,    Kyr
                         Taj
                                               1


Sources: perception of corruption index: Transparency International, 2007; Freedom House
rating: Freedom House, 2007.
 11. CHALLENGE TO GOVERNANCE WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION
                    Transparency International Corruption Index
       Old EU members 10 Highest integrity          New EU members

                   Denmark, Finland 9.4

                            Sweden 9.3
                         Netherlands 9.0
       Luxembourg, United Kingdom 8.4
                           Austria 8.1
                         Germany 7.8
                  OLD EU 15 MEAN 7.6
                            Ireland 7.5
                           France 7.3
                          Belgium 7.1
                              Spain 6.7 6.6 Slovenia
                            Portugal 6.5 6.5 Estonia
                                           5.8 (Malta)
                                           5.3 Hungary, (Cyprus)
                                Italy 5.2 5.2 Czech Republic
                                          5.0 MEAN OF NEW EU
                                          4.9 Slovakia
                             Greece 4.6 4.8 Latvia, Lithuania
                                           4.2 Poland
                                           4.1 Bulgaria
                                           3.7 Romania
                                1 Most corrupt
Source: Transparency International, TI Corruption Perceptions Index 2007,
www.transparency.org. Accessed 20 May 2008.
12.      ALTERNATIVE INSTITUTIONAL DEFINITIONS OF EUROPE

Democracy essential
COUNCIL OF EUROPE: 41 members. Democratic governance and freedoms, subject
to occasional political pressures.

EUROPEAN UNION: 27 members. Democratic governance and single Europe market.

Money
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK: 12 members. Common currency, interest rates

EUROPEAN BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT: 61 countries
financing development from Central Europe to Central Asia + Turkey.

Guns
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization): 26 members + ? American-led security
alliance against Soviet Union.

OSCE (Organization for Security & Cooperation in Europe). 55 members from Albania
to USA and Uzbekistan. Conflict prevention, crisis management and post-conflict
management in Europe.
13.       NATIONAL CLUSTERS OF MEMBERSHIPS

♦DEMOCRACY, MONEY & GUNS. Some old member states of European Union, e.g.
ITALY, France, Germany and Benelux countries are all in EU, ECB, and NATO.

♦DEMOCRACY & MONEY (belong to EU and ECB) but NO GUNS (Not NATO).
Austria, Finland, Ireland.

♦DEMOCRACY & GUNS (EU and NATO) but not in Eurozone. Britain, Denmark,
      + new EU member states which are supposed to join Eurozone

♦DEMOCRATIC but outside EU and ECB: Norway (in NATO). Switzerland (outside
NATO)
14.     GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS WITH MANY EUROPEAN MEMBERS

♦OECD. Includes Japan, Australia, Korea, USA, Mexico and Turkey.

♦WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION. Global in scope. Alliances very sensitive to
products, e.g. grain, cheap textiles, steel as well as geography.

♦INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. A central banker to central banks from Britain
to the poorest countries.

♦WORLD BANK. Economic aid for middle and low income countries promoting
economic growth and human development. Becoming concerned with governance.

♦UNITED NATIONS. Median member state is partly free. No economic powers.
Security council vetoes limit peace-keeping role.

				
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