Seminar Freight and Logistics

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					Seminar: Freight and Logistics
International Rail Freight Efficiency I
Session Number: 1, 10:30 - 12:30

Assessing the variation in rail interoperability in European
countries and barriers to improving the situation
W E Walker, Demis b.v. and Delft University of Technology, NL; G Baarse, Baarse
Beleidsondersteuning & Consult b.v., NL; A van Velzen, Vital-Link Policy Analysis, NL; T
Järvi, VTT, FI

This paper describes work conducted within REORIENT, an EC Sixth Framework project.
One of REORIENTs objectives was to document and explain the status of transformation of
the European railway sector from loosely connected national railways toward a functionally
integrated, interoperable system. We assessed the status of interoperability within and
between eleven countries in a railway corridor stretching from Greece to the Nordic countries.
We assessed the variation in interoperability status across the countries according to a variety
of aspects, and identified conditions in the countries that appear to be barriers to achieving

The primary data source for the analysis was a set of interviews with the major actors and
stakeholders associated with each countrys rail freight system (infrastructure managers,
railway undertakings, government institutions, intermodal terminal managers, and railway
unions). The (qualitative) information from the interviews was translated into numeric scores,
which were subjected to statistical analysis. Scores were associated with:

Requirements to achieve seamless rail freight transport, which include all necessary
conditions related to the institutional/legal framework, the market system, and the physical
railway system, presumed by the EC (in its Directives) to lead to seamless international rail
freight transport. We made a distinction between interoperability requirements (the
requirements covered in the EU Directives, EC legislation, and other EC-mandated
documents) and requirements related to the transport network (mainly characteristics of
infrastructure, rolling stock, border crossings, and terminal facilities).

Implementation conditions, which are conditions that must be met or situations that would
help to facilitate the implementation of (interoperability) requirements in achieving seamless
international rail freight transport. (Implementation barriers are shortcomings in
implementation conditions.)

The objective of the statistical analysis was to provide an assessment of the relationships
between the requirement aspects and the implementation conditions. The statistical analysis
involved both the identification of relevant relationships and an assessment of the strength of
these relationships.

Overall, we found that there was considerable variation in interoperability status across the
countries on practically all of the requirements. However, there was also considerable
variation in the status of the implementation conditions across the countries. As a result, we
found that most of the variability was able to be explained by relationships that were found to
exist between the requirement aspects and implementation conditions.

The barrier analysis used the country-specific scores for the implementation conditions and
requirement aspects and the significant relationships between these to compute a Barrier

Significance Score (BSS) for each country and for each implementation condition. These
scores enabled us to assess the relative importance of barriers across the countries, and to
identify the most critical barriers to be removed in order to improve interoperability. Focusing
only on interoperability requirement aspects, the main barriers across the countries relate to:

Inadequate mandates and lack of willingness of national regulators to implement and enforce
administrative changes.

Inadequate organizational structures, skills and knowledge of rail institutions (railway
undertakings, infrastructure managers, and regulators) to handle changes in task execution.

Lack of potential and willingness of the railway sector (railway undertakings and infrastructure
managers) to adjust to changed market structures.

Focusing only on requirement aspects related to the transport network, financial barriers are
dominant. The main financial barriers are the potential of the railway sector and national
governments to accommodate required investments, and the willingness of the railway sector
to invest in technological improvements and new business concepts. Other barriers for
improving the transport network are inadequate organizational structures, skills and
knowledge of rail institutions, and technical barriers.

Barriers related to interoperability requirements (market perspective and administrative) are
thus generally different from barriers related to the transport network (financial perspective
and technical). Institutional/organizational barriers play a role in both types of requirement
aspects. Consequently the latter barriers dominate when considering all requirement aspects

There are very large differences in BSS among countries. The average BSS across all
requirement aspects for Norway is, for example, less than 5% of the average BSS for Greece.
In general there are fewer barriers in Nordic countries and more barriers in the south. For the
New Member States considered in the analysis, the significance of barriers in the Czech
Republic and Slovakia is relatively low. The average BSS across all requirement aspects for
these two countries is, for example, lower than the average BSS of Austria. Furthermore
Romania and Bulgaria (Member States from 2007 onwards) are doing relatively well if one
looks at barriers related to interoperability requirement aspects. However, Romania and
Bulgaria have the most significant barriers related to the transport network.

RKB: a knowledge base to support research documentation,
data, GIS communications and data for a major rail freight
project: making large scale freight and other transport data
accessible, explorable and usable
M Wigan, Napier University, UK

The titled issue was addressed by Napier University Edinburgh to meet operational
requirements for ReOrient: a major EU FW6 project on railway integration and barriers to this:
this demands a wide range of new and existing data and documents to be brought together in
a immediately usable, downloadable and searchable form, plus data exploration and thematic
map forms of examination to bring the costs and time required to access and use such
information into the operational domain and restricted timetable of a short two year project. It
also had to be achieved with a maximum of 2-3 man years of effort to be built, deployed
populated, managed documented and delivered.

This meant that the largest datasets on freight and transport in the EU (as well as all the new
ones collected in reorient) had to be rapidly accessible, explorable and usable and as a result
their inclusion in the RKB would be perhaps the most comprehensively documented and

usable archive for data yet available. This was indeed the goal, and the one this paper is
designed to show is achievable rapidly and effectively even for small units.

The Knowledge Transfer aspects are also extremely important. At least one 5million element
major EU database is still two years after project competition not available to anyone in a
usable form: it was just one of the systems included and delivered within the RKB before the
mid point of the project

It also had to implemented to ensure a professional level of external ongoing support for key
components as well as clean and auditable open source coding and major Open Source tools
to make quite certain that the system was solid and built to be used at a very high reliability
and facility level by the half way stage of the project. The RKB could not be left to deliver at
the very end of the project as it was designed to be a key tool to assist in its development and

A point that is not immediately apparent is that this was designed by highly experienced
research people, and so the approach was different to systems designed mainly for final
access to the detrius and documentation after the end of a project- ie the normal Document
repository objective.

The RKB had to telescope the time and effort overheads of making complex transport
datasets. This is illustrated in the present paper by the range of analysis, access, time series
diagrams, graphs, thematic mapping OD matrix displays, desireline mappings and many other
tools normally only accessible after the time consuming heavy lifting of securing a dataset,
setting it up, understanding it, loading it into a specialised analysis system and producing
special maps and diagrams to communicate the results. Furthermore, the GIS tools needed to
be used to manage and standardise the input of many subcontractors collecting data so a
vector oriented network editor and data collection support system was needed and

The RKB has all these tools inbuilt so that the process of data set search, identification
exploration and visual and tabular and regression analyses are all part of the same access

This is one area where the productivity issues really benefit, and the reductions in user
overheads in making use of data sets are cut back to an absolute minimum.

The RKB is presented not only as a multidimensional repository, but also as a high level
productivity tool designed for globally distributed researchers, and supporting them with
tailored tools as well as visualisation and data exploration and documentation.

Transport has long needed such a system, not only to make effective use of what already
exists but also to raise the productivity and speed of progress of the research and projects
undertaken in this increasingly complex domain.

The RKB shows that it is a promise that can be made and kept.

Strategies for increasing intermodal transport between eastern
and western Europe
J Wichser, U Weidmann, N Fries, A Nash, ETH Zurich, Institute for Transport Planning and
Systems, CH

An important European Union policy is to decrease the share of freight transport moving by
truck in favor of alternative land transport modes (rail and waterway). The research projects
purpose was to identify strategies for increasing the share of intermodal freight transportation

between Eastern and Western Europe. The project evaluated the demand for transport in this
market and identified a potential candidate corridor. This corridor was used to help analyze
strategies for addressing the key problems in increasing intermodal transport.

The three main problems with intermodal transport are: quality, price and coverage; more
specifically, intermodal transport is often slower, less reliable and more expensive, than truck-
only transport, and furthermore it is only offered in selected corridors. Addressing these
problems is the key to increasing intermodal transport.

Quality is the most important factor in todays freight transport market. There are two main
ways to improve the quality of intermodal transport: consolidate management and improve the

Intermodal transport in Europe today is relatively disorganized; often it involves multiple
parties working together on an ad-hoc basis. The best option would be a single company
providing door-to-door service (similar to truck transport), but this is practically impossible for
long distance intermodal transport. Therefore, to increase quality, a single responsible party
must manage all transport chain partners, information flows must be improved, quality
improvement strategies must be implemented, and all partners must share the same

There are several alternative organizational structures that could achieve these objectives.
One common requirement is that the intermodal terminal operator be responsible for
providing the pre- and post-haulage service (to increase PPH efficiency). Ideally both the
origin and destination terminals would be under the control of the same operator. The terminal
operator could either contract with a railroad for the main haulage or (preferably) operate its
own trains (under Europes Open Access rules) between terminals. In cases where the origin
and destination terminals are operated by different companies, these companies must
develop a real working partnership.

Europes intermodal transport infrastructure must be improved to increase its share of the
freight market. New terminals must be built and the capacity of existing terminals increased to
support development of new operational strategies (e.g. liner trains or hub-and-spoke
systems). In some locations new track infrastructure must be built to help freight trains travel
quickly and efficiently between terminals. The main responsibility for planning and financing
these infrastructure investments must be government because of their high cost, long life and
impact on economic development; however, intermodal operators should strongly support
these efforts.

Many of the recommendations for increasing quality will also reduce expenses. A good
example is using coordinated information systems to quickly and accurately transmit
information between partners. The research found that the cost of inefficient pre- and post-
haulage process adds up to 37% to the cost of intermodal transport in typical markets. Two
ways to reduce these costs are to better plan the PPH operation (making more efficient use of
PPH trucks) and locating intermodal terminals closer to customers (or vice-versa).

The best markets for intermodal transport are large volumes of freight moving on a
concentrated axis over relatively long distances (around 1000 km or more). Intermodal
operators can build these markets using the cooperative strategies outlined above. Another
strategy is to increase freight volumes by serving smaller markets with a multi-level service
offer (which increases the number of efficient direct trains).

International Rail Freight Efficiency II
Session Number: 2, 13:30 - 15:30

Assessing service design options and strategies for overcoming
barriers in the reorient intermodal freight transport corridor
E Miller-Hooks, H S Mahmassani, V Charan Arcot, A Kozuki, A Kuo, C-C Lu, R Nair, K
Zhang, University of Maryland, US

The development of an international, intermodal freight transport system bridging the Nordic
countries with south and southeastern European regions via central Europe (known as the
REORIENT corridor) is considered. Interoperability of such a system is key to its success.
Barriers to interoperability within the REORIENT corridor have been identified and strategies
for overcoming, circumventing or neutralizing such barriers have been developed. In this
paper, barrier-reducing operational strategy scenarios are defined for given target years to
assess a number of these strategies. Such strategy scenarios may be operational,
administrative, legal, and management-related. Additionally, service design scenarios
corresponding to alternative intermodal rail freight services and associated attributes (e.g.
rates, frequency, time in transit) are proposed to assess service options that could viably
compete with truck.

For each barrier-reducing operational strategy or service design scenario, numerical
experiments were performed in a dynamic freight network simulation-assignment platform to
assess the benefits of such strategies. The simulation-assignment platform was developed
specifically for the analysis of multi-product intermodal freight transportation systems. At the
core of the platform is a model framework for the mode-path assignment problem in
multimodal freight transportation networks. The framework consists of three main
components: multimodal freight network simulation component, multimodal freight assignment
component, and a multiple product intermodal shortest path procedure. The freight network
simulation component incorporates a bulk queueing model to evaluate transfer delay
experienced by shipments at intermodal transfer terminals, classification yards, and ports.
The multimodal freight assignment component determines the network flow pattern from a
mode-path alternative set calculated by the multiple product intermodal shortest path
procedure, based on the link travel costs and node transfer delays from the multimodal freight
network simulation component. This model can represent individual shipment mode-path
choice behavior, consolidation policy, conveyance link moving, and individual shipment
terminal transfer in an iterative solution framework.

This paper provides an overview of the experimental platform, describes the barrier-reducing
operational strategy and service design scenarios proposed to assess strategies for
overcoming identified barriers to seamless implementation, and presents findings from the
experiments conducted to test the scenarios. Implications of these findings for interoperability
deployment in the REORIENT corridor are given.

How to improve railway services in the future? multi-criteria
impact evaluation of rail freight business models
R Hedel, A Lischke, German Aerospace Center, Institute of Transport Research, DE; J
Räsäsenen, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, FI

The ongoing increase in the international freight transport demand causes, due to the high
share of road haulage, immense negative effects on the society and the environment as for
instance congestion, accidents, noise or exhaust emissions. Long distance freight
transportation on railways is commonly assumed to cause less negative effects than on
trucks. However, against cheap and fast road haulage, the existing rail freight services are not
a competitive option for shippers and thus dont capture a significant mode share at present.
Within the project REORIENT, a new business model has been developed. It serves with four
interconnected freight trains relations between Scandinavia and southern eastern European
ports via three hub opportunities in Vienna, Bratislava and Budapest. The paper presents a

methodology and its application that has been developed within the project in order a) to
analyse and b) to evaluate all relevant internal and external effects that will result from
implementing the proposed business model. First, internal effects, thus on involved railway
companies and shippers are analyzed. As a second step, external effects, thus those effects
which bear on the whole society and the environment are studied. The developed
methodology comprises on the one hand socio-economic cost-benefit-analyses in order to
estimate the value of the reduction of congestion and accident fatalities and on the other hand
for those aspects where the spatial distribution is relevant, as for instance for noise and
emission effects, a GIS-based analyses on Corridor level. With this strategy, we can avoid to
put in danger specific areas as for instance highly populated regions, natural areas, habitats
or even cultural heritage that are of higher value than overall benefits that are commonly
estimated with cost-benefit-analyses. The results of the analyses steps are finally the input for
a multi-criteria evaluation of the business model. In order to convey the results to a broader
public, we present the analyses result first in a graphical and thus easy comprehensible way,
using the so called Dynarank technique. As a second step, we integrate both: the analyses
data and specific preference profiles. We present the application of the outranking approach
ELECTRE III to derive a final conclusion on the desirability of selected implementation
scenarios of the rail freight business concept.

The dynamics between the railways' institutional reforms and
the development of competitive rail freight markets in some
European countries
J Ludvigsen, O Osland, Institute of Transport Economics, NO

New Knowledge produced by the EC-sponsored REORIENT research study shows that
Norway and Sweden score high on implementation of the First Infrastructure Package and
Interoperability Directive. However, despite the seemingly efficient administrative and
regulatory apparatus, both countries experience lack of competition from the new rail freight
entrants. In contrast, the regulatory and administrative institutions in Poland, Czech Republic
and Romania score relatively low on implementation of the EC new rail policy. Yet, the market
share acquired by the Polish private freight operators reached in October 2006 16.8 p.c., a
level which is by far the highest in the EU. Similarly, private rail entrants into Czech and
Romanin domestic freight markets move sizable amount of goods gaining thereby a strong
foothold in the otherwise falling domestic rail segment. These empirical developments raise
considerable concerns over effectiveness of the EC rail market liberalization directives and
provide basis for the following research questions:

1)Is efficient regulatory and administrative governance a sufficient condition for inter-rail and
2)What types of regulatory and administrative barriers do hamper market liberalization and
intra-modal competition in one set of countries while not in another?
3)What features of societal and business cultures release competitive forces despite the
shortcoming in free and un-discriminatory political, administrative and institutional
4)Can the entrepreneurial vigour and competitive orientation of new rail ventures countervail
the inadequacies of the regulatory and administrative systems?
5)What is the minimum-level of institutional reforms that initiates market opening large
enough for new rail entrepreneurs to enter the freight market rivalry?
6)Do the administrative contents and the hierarchical locations of entry switching points vary
across different countries?
7)What strategic and operational measures do the new market entrants apply to circumvent,
neutralize and reduce the extant institutional, administrative and technical barriers?

The road to freight operational efficiency – performance
K McWilliam, C Douglas, J James, Faber Maunsell, UK

When the Kyoto Protocol was signed, the UK agreed to reduce emissions by five percent.
The Government expected all sectors to do their bit towards cutting emissions. As the
haulage sector makes up eight percent of all emissions, it was a critical target for
improvements in environmental performance. So, how do you get commercial transport
operators to comply with government aims to lower emissions? The simple answer is helping
them to reduce their fuel consumption and thus improve their bottom line profitability. This is
the aim of the Department for Transports Freight Best Practice programme (FBP). This
behavioural change programme is unique across Europe and more advanced than other such
programmes around the world such as the USAs Smartway programme.

Behavioural Change

The FBPP aims to help freight operator profitability by helping them save fuel. Fuel is a very
significant component of operational costs for haulage operators (approximately 30%) and
therefore reducing total fuel consumption is an inherent motivation. Reducing the amount of
fuel consumed does have a knock-on environmental benefit by reducing the quantity of
emissions produced (a litre of diesel producing 2.68kgs of CO2). The FBPP methodology
provides free information on how organisations can create operational efficiencies to monitor
and thus successfully reduce fuel consumption.

Performance Management

Putting this theory into practice has been the major challenge for the FBPP. A free information
framework has been developed, aimed at all workers in the haulage industry. Some
information is aimed at drivers, in a series of pocket guides and training materials. However
the majority of information is aimed at transport managers. This material includes a series of
guides to facilitate external benchmarking against others in a range of sectors (such as food,
next day parcel delivery, and pallet networks) and to provide information on Best-in-Class
performers. These publications are supported by software tools, to assist with practical
internal benchmarking, within the fleet. This provides them with suggested methodology and
resources to accurately monitor the performance of their fleet, as measurement and
understanding are the first steps towards effective operational performance management.

To take the example of external benchmarking first, a series of guides have been produced
with information gathered by survey from key players in a range of industry sectors. For each,
a separate guide has been produced, presenting the results of the same five Key
Performance Indicators (KPIs), these are:
 - Vehicle Fill.
 - Empty Running.
 - Time Utilisation.
 - Deviations from Schedule.
 - Fuel Consumption.

The results provide best in class information for the transport manager to use to compare,
contrast and target set their own operations. The variations between different operations
efficiency can be significant, for example in the next day parcel delivery sector, the proportion
of empty running varies between fleets from zero to fifty percent of the time. Once the factors
that influence this can be understood, they can be used to help managers to modify their
operations to achieve theses benefits.

The FBPP also provides a mechanism for the fleet manager to allow accurate measurement
of the KPIs within their own fleet, or internally benchmark. The Fleet Performance

Management Tool (FPMT) is a PC based software tool (complete with manual) to allow
operators to track fleet performance week on week for 22 KPIs.

All this information is made available free of charge through a number of channels, such as
attendance and exhibition at major industry events, including the annual Commercial Vehicle
Show (CVS), attendance at industry group events and through a dedicated programme
website (


The haulage industry tends to be naturally suspicious of governmental policy impacts on their
industry; however this programme has received much positive feedback. However, the
haulage industry magazine, Commercial Motor reviewed the FPMT and described it
extremely positively Its not often that Commercial Motor feels like thanking the Government
for the way it is helping the haulage industry.

The FBPP has had success in reaching its core audience. At the largest event for the UK
Haulage Industry, the CVS, a survey showed that 32% of attendees had heard of the
Programme in 2006 compared with only 10% in 2005, approximately 105,000 people have
used the website to download or order guides and articles have been in various industry
journals with a total readership of 1,604,058. This success in awareness raising can be
credited to keeping the message The Road to Freight Operational Efficiency Performance
Management consistent.

Freight Growth
Session Number: 3, 16:00 - 18:00

Analysis of the effects of the Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade
Agreement on freight transport: an input-output based approach
V Marzano, A Papola, Università di Napoli “Federico II” , IT

In the Barcelona Declaration (1995), the Euro-Mediterranean Partners agreed on the
establishment of a Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area (EMFTA) by the target date of 2010.
The new generation of Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreements provides for the gradual
implementation of bilateral free trade zones (FTZ). The Euro-Mediterranean Free-Trade Area
foresees free trade in manufactured goods and progressive liberalisation of trade in
agricultural products.

It is therefore of interest analyzing the FTZ effects on freight flows and on the national
economy of the involved countries, both for identifying a list of priorities in infrastructural and
service improvements of transport connection and for defining threats and opportunities for
European firms. Some studies have already dealt with this issue: for instance, Lorca Corrons
(2000) analyzed the impacts of FTZ between EU and Morocco, Egypt, Turkey and Tunisia for
the agricultural sector, while Russo and Assumma (2005) improved the Italian national freight
DSS in order to simulate, in a relatively aggregate way, changes in international trade due to
the FTZ. European funded projects have also been carried out for understanding economical
and administrative implications of the FTZ: see for instance the SIA-EMFTA and the
FREEMED projects.

In spite of these studies, an exhaustive analysis of the FTZ effects on the overall European
economy has not been carried out yet, and the development of an input-output based
simulation model at European level seems to be the key aspect for a thorough analysis of
those economic impacts and for the identification of multiplicative effects as well as which
good sectors may gain from this FTZ.

Therefore, starting from the modelling framework discussed in Marzano and Papola (2004), a
MRIO European model has been developed on the basis of macroeconomic data collected by
several sources (Eurostat, National Bureaus of Statistics, International trade offices, World
Bank and so on). Moreover, trade data between EU and FTZ involved countries, collected on
the basis of sources available in those countries in the context of the FREEMED project, have
been also used. It is worth mentioning that the Eurostat i-o tables for the EU countries allows
also knowing directly the transport margins, which represent a modelling opportunity for
integrating transport level-of-service attributes within the developed MRIO model. Transport
level-of-service attributes for the study area have been in turn calculated through a transport
supply model, which takes into account road and short-sea shipping, allowing calculation of
the shortest travel time for each o-d pair. VTTS estimates available in the literature have been
then used for turning those times into monetary values.

The system of models has been therefore applied in the context of FTZ effects appraisal. In
more detail, some policy scenarios, chosen among those provided by the FREEMED project
on the basis of the analysis of the agreements between EU and third part countries involved
in the EMFTA, have been simulated. For those countries, the increase in demand and/or in
trade with reference to specific good sectors due to the FTZ has been firstly estimated
through a procedure suggested by Trecozzi (2004) and Russo and Assumma (2005). Then,
this change has been used as input for the implemented MRIO model, which the effects on
European trade and economies has been checked through. Those analyses will allow
understanding which countries will mostly benefit from FTZ including in this analysis the
previously mentioned multiplicative effects and also identifying a list of priorities for supporting
the corresponding increase in freight flows.

Input-output analysis of transport sectors of Germany
B Schade, European Commisson Joint Research Centre, INT and Institute for Prospective
Technological Studies, ES

The aim of this paper is to analyse the transport sectors of Germany between 1990 and 2002
through an analysis of Input-Output-Tables. Based on a time series of Input-Output-Tables
two transport vehicle sectors and five transport service sectors can be differentiated. The
development of the transport sectors can be described in terms of export, import, gains,
employment, intermediates, production structure etc. on a sectoral level.

A key part of the analysis is the investigation of the transport service sectors. One transport
sector represents combined transport and with this sector the linkages between the different
modes of transport can be investigated. The analysis stress between which transport sectors
high integration occurs and which transport sectors remain rather isolated. It can be shown
that combined transport has an increasing importance in transport.

The development of the transport sectors can be related to transport policies on the national
and international level. During this period of time several new transport policies came into
place like e.g. the exemption of fixed tariffs for road freight transport and the different steps of
air liberalisation. The outcome of the undertaken analysis of transport sectors can be linked to
transport policies. E.g. in the case of the exemption of fixed tariffs it can be shown that this
leads to changes of gains of the road transport sector and of cargo.
The analysis of the development of transport sectors and the link to transport policies shows
clearly that changes in transport sectors refer to impacts of European and national transport

Nature or nurture: why do railroads carry greater freight share in
the United States than in Europe?
J M Vassallo, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, ES; Mark Fagan, Harvard University, US

During the 1950s, the share of freight carried by railroads was similar and declining in both
the United States and Europe. Beginning in the 1960s, however, the trends diverged. In the
United States, the decline slowed during the 1960s and 1970s, and railroads share of freight
actually increased during the 1980s and 1990s. In contrast, European rail freight share
steadily declined throughout this period. By 2000, the railroads share of freight (measured in
tonne-kilometres) had increased to 38 percent in the United States while it fell to 8 percent in

One possible explanation is that differences in geography and other natural or inherent
characteristics make the United States more suitable for rail freight than Europe. The United
States has three times the land area of the European Union (EU-15) which results in longer
shipment distances that favour railroads over trucks. And the United States, despite its land
mass, has only one-ninth the coastline of Europe, favouring railroads over coastal shipping.
The mix of commodities shipped differs between the United States and Europe as well, and
often in ways that bolster United States railroad share.

An alternative explanation is that public policies have been more supportive of rail freight in
the United States than in Europe. At first glance this idea seems suspect. Europe has much
higher taxes on motor vehicle fuels and a long history of subsidizing its railroads. And
although both Europe and the United States have built extensive high-performance highway
systems, in Europe these are often financed by tolls while in the United States many are not.
However, countervailing factors could be at work. The United States has encouraged its
freight railroads to be more efficient by leaving them in private hands instead of nationalizing
them, as Europe did. Moreover, the United States released the private railroads from the
obligation to provide urban commuter service in 1958 and intercity passenger service in 1970,
and then substantially eliminated government controls over freight rates in 1980, three steps
which allowed railroad managers the freedom and flexibility to focus on freight.

This paper adds to the literature an examination of the reasons for the difference in rails share
of freight in Europe and the United States. For the first comprehensive analytical comparison,
the research provides an initial explanation of the rail share issue at the macro level. The
methodology features a step-by-step calculation of how rail transportation volumes in the
United States would change if the United States had the same transportation volume as
Europe, the same market-share for non-surface modes (coastwise, barge, and pipeline) as
Europe, the same distribution of shipment distances by commodity as Europe, and the same
commodity-mix as Europe. Then, we contrast the resulting volume with the rail transportation
volume that Europe is presently moving, and we observe that there is still a gap. This residual
is explained by variables that we have not explicitly included in our analysis, many of which
are thought to be a result of policy differences.

In brief, we find that a bit less than 83 percent of the gap in 2000 is probably due to natural or
inherent differences, principally the shorter coastline and the longer shipment distances but
also differences in commodities moved. However, 17 percent of the gap cannot be explained
by these inherent differences, and is presumably due to public policies. If that gap were
closed, railroads share of freight in Europe would increase by approximately 65 percent (from
8 percent to 13 percent.)

Revival of rail freight transport in the Netherlands?
J Francke, KIM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis, NL

In the late 1980-ties the former Dutch Minister of Transport, Public Works and Water
management, mrs Neelie Smit-Kroes, expressed her fear that the Netherlands would suffer
from Jutlandisering due to the peripheral location in Europe. The European economic
integration of 1992 was still ahead and in several doom scenarios the Netherlands Ltd. would
not be able to keep up with the other European countries in the global competition. In two
long-term planning documents for Spatial Policy (4e Nota Ruimtelijke Ordening) and
Transport Policy (Structuurschema Verkeer en Vervoer II) a startegic plan was set out to
improve international competitiveness of the Netherlands. As a central theme the Gateway to
Europe was adopted in which the Mainports of Schiphol and Rotterdam would have a
dominant role. Large-scale infrastructure investments in the hinterland connections of these
ports and in the Mainports themselves were planned using a large portion of the available
public investments funds in the next decades.

Now in 2007, nearly 20 years later, both the dedicated freight rail infrastructure from the port
of Rotterdam to the German border (Betuweroute) and the dedicated high-speed line (HSL)
from Schiphol to the Belgian border are finished. According to the latest Lisbon Review
Report 2006 on competitiveness the Netherlands rank fairly good (4th out of the 25 EU
member states) ahead of Germany and France and also better than the USA and East Asia.
On top of this competitiveness ranking however stands Denmark with Jutland as one of the
examples of investing heavily in education with a focus on technology and innovation.

Despite the possible suggestion in this last sentence of the introduction it is by no means the
intention to dedicate this paper to the efficiency of public investments in infrastructure
compared to other domains.

In this paper the results will be presented of a study into the market demand for rail freight
transport in the Netherlands in the past and coming decades. What has happened during the
building of the Betuweroute? After closing the Dutch coal mines in the south of the
Netherlands at the end of the sixties the volume of national rail freight transport declined very
rapidly. Although the total international freight transport market showed enormous growth
figures in the seventies and the eighties, rail freight could only capture a small part of this
growth. Total volume rail freight volume on Dutch territory fell down reaching rock bottom in

From then on the rail freight volumes in the Netherlands have more than doubled. Where did
this growth come from? Can it be explained by the closing of the German coalmines and the
enormous growth in container shipping from China or was the market liberalisation of rail
freight the main driver of this growth? What can be learned from these past developments on
the future of freight rail in the Netherlands in particular and Europe in general?

Session Number: 4, 10:30 - 12:30

Charging practices in European ports - user reaction on
differentiation of charges
G Wilmsmeier, A Baird, Napier University, UK

In the European Union levels and structures of port infrastructure charges vary strongly
across countries and terminals. The existing charging regimes seem to be far from
internalising external costs and are rarely based on efficiency principles. Differentiation of
charges might be an intermediate step towards the envisaged application of marginal social
cost pricing in the European Union. The research presented in this paper is part of the EU
project: DIFFERENT User reaction and efficient differentiation in charges and tolls

The paper analyzes the existing structure of differentiation in charges for a number of
European container ports to understand current practices and to identify existing differences.
The paper seeks to understand the user perspective of the existing charges and their
potential reaction of further differentiation of these charges.
In many cases the structure of charges is quite vague and not available publicly (i.e. Handling
charges). Further, analysis is constrained due to the fact that the shipping market is rather
market-driven and displays relative high levels of vertical integration within the transport

The authors compare data from two primary sources. On the one side they use qualitative
data derived from personal interviews at a number of ports, on the other they draw from
results obtained through a stated preference questionnaire with port users.
The main goal is to investigate effects on users through the differentiation of port charges and
to estimate the elasticity of user reaction on changes towards more differential charging

Thus, the paper investigates the short-term and long-term effects of existing and planned
charging schemes on ships for port channels/fairways, associated port infrastructure and port
services. In this complex environment the study attempts to gain further understanding of
cost-elasticities for ship operators.
Based on the new insight gained during the research in the paper provides recommendations
for effective differentiation of charges in the European port sector.

Funding of inland transport links to ports: a comparison of UK
and continental experience
P Burgess, Arup, UK; F Jimenez, G Massot, Arup, ES; D Whitehead, British Ports Authority,

Background and objectives

Ports are in the news. The UK Government is undertaking a Review of its Ports Policy against
a background of unprecedented levels of stock market interest in the ports industry. The
constitutional make up of the UK ports industry, with 40% of ports private and 60% in
municipal ownership or operating as trusts makes the formation of policy which is efficient,
equitable and supportive of port development especially challenging.
The ports themselves have diffuse interests and are represented by two trade organisations.
Within any port there are pure public good activities, such as provision of common user
facilities for ships and river basin and coastal conservancy which arguably could be part-
funded by public money.

Against these factors affecting ports core business, the progress of schemes to improve
inland transport links such as rail gauge enhancement and highway access improvements is
either tortuous and slow or not happening at all. Ports are not accorded any special status,
and the private sector may at any time walk away leading at the very least to losses in traffic
and economic development and at worst to further delays in infrastructure development.
This paper draws on the information gained from studies for the nine English regional
development agencies, individual ports and international experience to propose new funding
mechanisms for road and rail links to ports.

Review of UK and Continental experience

The analysis will fall into five components:
 - Collation of evidence on the wider economic benefits of ports, which cannot be easily
recovered through tariffs, in the UK and Europe;
 - Identification of dilemmas:
         - Within the ports, as they consider the best use V for example of space – between
activities that may maximise revenue as opposed to those that maximise local and regional
economic impact (port investments to encourage tourism development are an example)
         - Within the highway, rail and planning authorities V who may need to rationalise as to
why port authorities should be treated differently from other developers
 - Collection of traffic data V to establish the circumstances in which port traffic can be a
significant proportion of total traffic
 - National and EU context including State Aid rules, competition policy, security and
nationality of ownership considerations.
 - Review of funding mechanisms, in the UK and mainland Europe V to examine whether links
to ports are accorded any special priority and how these are being funded. The financing
rules of the international institutions, highway and railway authorities and public-private
financing models will be considered. Treatments of economic development and environmental
benefits will be examined.


Based on the analysis, the paper will conclude by proposing financing mechanisms to
accelerate the delivery of inland links to ports based on sound economic principles,
consistency with EU State Aid and other rules and taking account of funding sources such as
(in the UK) the Transport Innovation Fund.

Hinterland traffic of the Port of Hamburg – keeping the gateway
P Gaffron, J Benecke, H Flämig, TUHH - Hamburg University of Technology, DE

The predictions for the increase in freight traffic in Europe point towards growing impacts and
bottlenecks on the road network. Alleviating these symptoms of economic activity while at the
same time supporting sustainable economic systems requires as is the case with human
mobility in general well thought out measures of infrastructure adaptation, traffic management
and steps towards modal shift.

These more global issues are encapsulated in the situation in and around the Port of
Hamburg, where a steady and considerable growth rate in freight turn-over in the past is
forecast to continue. Cargo handling is expected to increase from 114. million t in 2004 to
221.6 million t in 2015 with a parallel growth in container traffic from 7.0 million TEU to 18.1
million TEU in the same time span. This, however, is coupled with transport infrastructure
both in the port and in its hinterland that is in many places reaching the limits of its capacity.

However, there is currently too little data that could firstly help to accurately describe the
current situation and secondly enable predictions on which the key actors (local planning
departments, port operators etc.) can base their planning. A study carried out as part of the
INTERREG III B Project Northern Maritime Corridor Motorways of the Northern Seas (NMC II)
is aiming to change this. It is targeting enterprises and organisations, which generate freight
traffic in and around the port with the aim of mapping not just the current flows of vehicles and
vessels on the various transport routes (which can be and are regularly counted) but also
showing their origins and destinations as well as the structure of their cargo (e.g. containers,
palettes, bulk freight etc.). This latter information is currently not available and is required to
enable more accurate judgement of the actual characteristics and magnitude of the problems
currently experienced in the transport system and to thus make it possible to design more

efficient solutions especially when considering future traffic scenarios linked to the current
forecasts for growth in turnover. Such solutions can include changing the capacity of current
infrastructures as well services that encourage and/or enable modal shift from the road.
Furthermore they might include administrative, organisational and information approaches,
that make the use of existing infrastructure more efficient and influence the modal choice of
freight transport actors.

The paper will present the results of the study as well as the first conclusions arising from the
point of view of the public and port administrations.

The NMC II Project includes partners from seven North Sea countries, who work together
investigating the potential for Motorways of the Seas in the Northern Maritime Corridor. This
includes the issues of hinterland traffic in the participating ports and the potential to locally
focus freight competencies in poly-centric port structures to enhance local strengths and thus
consolidate the use of resources to the economic and environmental benefit of all ports
concerned. More information can be found on

Marginal cost pricing in sea ports: how to model and assess
differences between ports?
H Meersman, F Monteiro, T Pauwels, E Van de Voorde, T Vanelslander, University of
Antwerp, BE

It is generally accepted in economic literature that for sea ports, like for any other project
which is used by one or more users, social marginal cost pricing is the optimal pricing
paradigm to be adopted from a welfare point of view. If the use of the sea ports infrastructure
and services is priced at a tariff above (below) marginal cost, production will be lower (higher)
than the optimal level.

The general principle is clear. However, the practical assessment of what the marginal cost of
a port call consists of, how the actual marginal cost can be calculated, and what factors make
marginal costs differ between different port settings is still surrounded by vagueness. This
paper takes a deeper look into the real composition of marginal costs, develops a
methodology for practical calculation and applies the calculation to a number of different port
settings. The main research hypothesis states that marginal costs do indeed differ in a
number of port-specific characteristics. The research was conducted in the frame of the
GRACE project, where similar analysis were conducted and comparable hypothesis were
posted for air transport and inland navigation.

For testing the hypothesis in a sea-port context, it is first indicated for what part of the
maritime transport chain marginal costs should be calculated in a port case study. Different
port zones are considered. Next, for the social marginal cost assessment, an engineering
approach is used. An econometric approach cannot be applied due to lack of suitable data:
maritime and port undertakings have absolutely no incentive to publish or make available
what they consider to be commercially confidential data. Through the engineering approach,
the social marginal cost is decomposed in its four main components: infrastructure costs,
transport user costs, supplier/operating costs and external costs. Each component is
assessed first in a theoretical way, indicating whether and under what form a component
occurs in what physical port zone. It is found that marginal elements show up in infrastructure
costs as a consequence of using locks in the port, costs of crew onboard the vessel,
operating and maintenance cost of the vessel, tugboats and pilotage boat (or helicopter),
accident costs (cargo damage as well as injuries of persons, and noise and air pollution costs.

The engineering approach allows, in a next step, building a simulation tool for modelling a
vessels approach process. This simulation tool is not specific to one port type but features
sufficient flexibility for being applicable to different port settings. Variation is allowed in various
general, vessel-related, port-related and cargo-related characteristics. The relationships

between variables are modeled as closely as possible to reality, although for a number of
relationships, simplifications turned out to be necessary in view of usability of the model and
of data availability for early applications. The model setup allows however further detailing all

In a subsequent step, the theoretical frame and the simulation tool are applied to a number of
port cases. The ports under study are chosen in such way that they correspond to different
port settings, which could allow for different social marginal cost levels to occur. The sample
consists of the ports of Antwerp, Felixstowe, Genova and Bordeaux. The theoretical results of
the research show that different port settings do indeed lead to a different social marginal cost

Furthermore, the case-study assessment allows quantifying the impact of different port
settings on actual social marginal cost levels. It is shown what different characteristics make
up for a different marginal cost composition. Variables with most impact turn out to be port
location (river or coastal), port layout and traffic level.

The latter variable is especially of interest in a context where congestion and scarcity costs
occur. The simulation tool can be used to assess the impact of both phenomena. However, in
the case of the ports that were investigated, congestion and/or scarcity seems not to be
relevant nowadays, in most cases due to existing overcapacity. However, port economists
start taking into account potential future capacity problems, whereby congestion and scarcity
will come into play and will have to be included in a social marginal cost calculation.

The results are useful from a policy as well as from an operational perspective. From a policy
point of view, insight into the real marginal cost levels should lead to more tariff transparency.
From an operational perspective, insight into marginal costs should enable operators to take
decisions that reach closer to the optimum.

Freight Modelling I
Session Number: 5, 14:00 - 16:00

A micro-model for logistics decisions in Norway and Sweden
calibrated to aggregate data
G de Jong, Significance, NL and ITS University of Leeds, UK; M Ben-Akiva, MIT, US and
Significance, NL; J Baak, Significance, NL

At the ETC 2005, the specification of a logistics model, that is to become one of the
components of the national freight transport model systems of Norway and Sweden, was
presented. This model has since been implemented and will be calibrated to aggregate data
in the first months of 2007. Actually there are two logistics models with the same structure,
one for Norway and one for Sweden.

This logistics model is developed for the Work Group for transport analysis in the Norwegian
national transport plan and the Samgods group in Sweden. The Swedish national freight
model system (Samgods model) and its Norwegian counterpart (NEMO) are almost
completely based on concepts and considerations that differ from logistics thinking. Both in
Norway and Sweden a process to update and improve the existing national freight model
system is going on. An important part of this is the development of the logistics model.

In 2005/2006, a prototype version of the logistics model was developed, that uses Swedish
and Norwegian network and cost data and data on the locations of distribution centres. The
parameters of this prototype were not calibrated to observed data. The purpose of this version
was mainly to show the feasibility of the approach.

After having shown that the approach was feasible, a new and extended version of the
logistics model has been specified and applied for both Norway and Sweden within the
framework of their national freight transport forecasting systems. The Norwegian model takes
as inputs commodity flows from production to consumption zone (that also include the
wholesale function). The logistics model then disaggregates these flows to firm-to-firm flows.
For Sweden the disaggregation to firm-to-firm flows is done as part of the base matrix
calculation, outside the logistics model, and the logistics model takes these as given.
After this disaggregation, for both countries, the logistics decisions (shipment size, use of
consolidation and distribution centres, mode and vehicle/vessel type and loading unit type
choice) are simulated at this firm-to-firm level (micro-simulation).

The output of the model consists of flows between origins and destinations (OD-level), where
consolidation and distribution centres (including ports, airports and railway terminals) are also
treated as origins and destinations. Furthermore, the model can provide information on total
logistics cost between zones, which can be used in trade or spatial interaction models.

Key features of the new version of the logistics model are:
For Norway the model uses all firm-to-firm relations in simulation, for Sweden it is applied for
a firm-to-firm relation within sub-cells defined by firm size classes and uses expansion factors
to represent the total population.
The transport chain generation program within the logistics model includes determining the
optimal transfer locations within available transport chains for all modes.
In the determination of shipment size we include the effect of economies of scale in transport
(a force leading to larger shipment sizes, because these have lower transport cost).
The degree of consolidation (or the load factor of the vehicles) between consolidation centres
and distribution centres is determined in an iterative procedure which starts with an assumed
average load factor, but in a subsequent iteration includes information on the availability of
other cargo (based on the available transport chains and port statistics), and in an even
further iteration uses the flows between consolidation centres predicted in the previous model

Estimation of a random utility-based logistics model on disaggregate data (partly available,
partly still to be collected) is foreseen for future years for both countries.
The basic mechanism in the model is minimisation of a deterministic total annual logistics cost
function. We have developed a procedure to calibrate parameters in the cost function to
available aggregate data. A number of calibration parameters (e.g. for implied discount rates,
mode-specific constants, constant for direct transport) is added to the cost function. We use
observed OD data by mode, commodity type for aggregate zones (10×10 zones for a country)
as calibration data. The calibration parameter values are then determined in an iterative
process using the Box-Complex procedure. This method belongs to the class of direct search
methods, that do not require derivative methods (unlike gradient search), which is convenient
given our highly nonlinear logistics cost function (which is a step function).
The paper will include the structure of the model, highlighting the features added after 2005,
explain the calibration procedure and present calibration results.

Demand models for freight transport: a critical review with
research perspectives
F Combes, F Leurent, LVMT, FR

For a long time, freight transport demand models have been inspired by, and transferred
from, the models for passenger demand. However, in recent years specific methods have

been developped to address the modelling of the freight transportation system along various
strategies which led to a handful of models, each of which being targeted at a specific aspect
of freight demand.

The paper has a twofold objective: first, to review the models and approaches; second, to
discuss which specificities of the freight transportation system are correctly accounted for.
The models for freight demand have been classified into three categories, depending on
whether they are focused on representation of the supply side of the freight transport system,
or the demand one, or the relationship between them. Such categories do not intend to be
well-delineated, but rather to highlight the objective chosen by the modellers; moreover, there
are composite models which link together components taken from two or more of the

The three categories are as follows:

1. Models of the supply-demand relationship focus on the matching between supply and
demand i.e. the transactions whereby the quantities and prices and qualitative conditions are
set up, which lead to the shipments of goods. These models are oriented to the description of
the transactions and the shipments; their primary goal is to describe in a statistical manner
the freight transport market, and its long-term trends. The objective may be addressed in two
alternative ways, either top-down from aggregate to disaggregate or bottom-up. A top-down
approach may be adopted, as in the REDEFINE project, by working directly with indicators
aggregated up to a high level. Conversely, a bottom-up approach may be taken starting from
the disaggregate level of the shipments, as in the French survey ECHO. In some composite
models the dependency between freight transportation as an economic sector and the rest of
the economy is emphasized in order to analyse explicitly the linkage between the
transportation conditions and the demand. This applies to Spatial Input-Output models such
as the SCENES model (ME&P, 2002), the SMILE model (Tavasszy, 2003), and the demand
generation component of EUNET (Jin & Williams, 2005).

2. Supply-oriented models of freight demand focus on how the supply side behaves and is
developed in a demand-responsive way, without neglecting the demand side nor reducing it
to a mere matrix of fixed origin-destination flows. Models that address only the design and
management of a supply firm, for a fixed, given demand, fall outside the scope of this paper.
Groothedde (2003) proposed a model to optimize the development of waterway transport and
of logistic platforms in the Netherlands, in relation with servicing logistic chains for a set of
identified, regular customers, across whom the goods can be allocated dynamically. In the
MOSES model of Kettner et al (2003), the focus is on the efficient bulk and break of a set of
shipments by a rail services operator: the engines, wagons and tracks are allocated to the
services so as to meet the requirements of a quality-responsive demand.

3. Demand oriented models: priority is granted to the representation of the demand side i.e.
the customers behaviours. Some models follow a macroscopic approach and establish
relations of a statistical nature between the demand behaviour and an aggregate
representation of the supply side: e.g. the EUNET model of Jin & Williams (2005), in which a
statistical linkage is modelled at the zone level between the amount of logistic facilities and
services, and the logistic decisions taken by the shippers. In other models the customers
costs and decisions are described in a disaggregate way: the Nodus model of Jourquin &
Beuthe (2005) enables one to represent the logistic options available to the shippers in a very
detailed way in terms of both costs and operation time, leading to a per-ton cost based on the
logistic process. Eventually, a highly disaggregated representation of the demand is
combined to an aggregate representation of the supply: e.g. the Freturb model of Routhier et
al (2002).

After introducing the models that are currently available (at least for research purposes), an
assessment is performed along the following set of issues:
1. The representation and its level of disaggregation
2. The segmentation of the demand.
3. The modelling of modal choices.

4. The representation of times and costs throughout the logistic processing of a shipment.
5. The representation of the relationships between the economic agents.
6. The appraisal of the social costs, the measurement of the social welfare.
7. The ability to test policies.

Green supply chain: intermodal transportation modeling with
environmental impacts
D Anciaux, Y Kun, LGIPM/SdP, Université Paul VerlaineIle du Saulcy, FR

The design and management of global supply chains are nowadays one of the most active
research topics in global logistics and intermodal logistic has developed into a significant
sector of the transport logistics in its own right while very little is known about costs in the
intermodal chain or appropriate calculation methods. In realistic, the transport volume
increase gloriously in the past 30 years in EU and the cost of transporation covers the
majority part of the entire supply chain. So it is necessary for us to build a model to aid in the
calculation of transportation cost and mode selection between different transportation
choices. As the concept of supply chain management is becoming more and more important
in addressing an organizations environmental impacts, increasingly environmental and social
aspects are being incorporated into supply chain management. Customers are not only
influenced by the costs, speeds and reliabilities of supply chain, but also by the perceived
environmental impact of each activity. Considering all of these, the integration of
transportation models and environmental impacts has become an interesting and crucial
domian for exporation. Most of the models of the integration of production and transportation
are presented for reducing the transportation costs and choosing the route more economic in
the assurence of delivery time. In the paper Creating a Green Supply Chain (Khoo et al.,
Greener Management International, vol.35, pp.71-88,2002), the author propose a model of
green supply chain by integrating the concerns of transport pollution, maketing costs, time to
market, recycling of scrap metal and energy conservation. Besides, there is little work until
nowadays taking all kinds of transportation into account.

In our study, we build a model integrating the conflicting factors such as cost, on-time service
and risk and the environmental impacts within the framework of intermodal logistics to aid the
decision of the most effective transportation mode choice or mix between freight, rail, boat
and airways. This model is attributed to integrat a set of constraits of each transport company.
So a supplier would be able to calculate with the model we offered and make his decision of
the most effective transportation mode choice or mix according to his own object:
minimisation of the transporation cost, the transport duration or the environmental impacts.
Simulation and modelling tools are introduced to aid in the decision making process of
distance selections and choices of transporation.

Guidance on freight modelling
I Williams, Y Jin, J Pharoah, WSP, UK; , John Bates, John Bates Services, UK; M
Shahkarami, Department for Transport, UK

This summarises the findings from a six month study commissioned by the UK Department
for Transport (DfT). The study is to update DfT’s published guidance to those appraising
schemes, on the methods to be used for forecasting road freight movements. It will present
the key findings from the following components of this study.

Creating forecasts of expected future road freight traffic growth for light (LGV) and heavy
goods vehicles (HGV) by vehicle type. The forecasts will use outputs from DfT’s National
Transport Model: HGVs will be based on the GBFM model, whereas those for LGVs will be
based on time series analyses. Consideration will be given to whether there now appear to be

a fundamental change in the long term trends of close linkage between GDP and HGV traffic
growth (decoupling) and of ever increasing lengths of haul.

Disaggregating these growth forecasts by road type and area type. It has been observed in
recent years that whereas light goods vehicle traffic has grown rapidly on most types of road,
the growth rate of heavy goods vehicles has differed significantly by type of road and between
rigid and articulated vehicles within the same type of road. The implications of these trends for
future traffic forecasts will be explored.

Review existing freight modelling approaches. This will identify their strengths and
weaknesses and make recommendations on how to improve general practice in freight
modelling for road scheme assessment. Issues to be examined include: time of day of travel;
differential speeds by vehicle type and associated speed-flow curves, methods for updating
base year vehicle matrices, etc.

Review emerging data sources. There has been an increase in the range of GIS databases of
properties and of economic activity that could potentially be used to provide improvements in
the zonal estimates of freight generation and attraction. The growth in the volume of data from
automated traffic counts and GPS systems and the reduction in availability of roadside
interview surveys may change the way in which transport demand should be measured in

Reshaping freight demand modelling - a modelling framework
for freight transport policy & the environment
H Maurer, ITS University of Leeds, UK

The paper is set out to satisfy two objectives. Firstly, the study begins with a critical analysis
of current freight modelling practices and suggests a new shape to freight demand modelling.
Secondly, the generic model framework is applied to monitoring the effect of transport policy
decisions on freight transport demand and air quality. In this study a particular interest is
taken in the effect of freight traffic on air pollutants and greenhouse gases.

The author would like to invite to take a fresh look at the performance of current models with
respect to forecasting freight transport demand. The original motivation was to ask how freight
modelling deals with discrepancies between observed model outcomes as model
assumptions and forecasting results. In this context a lot of energy seems to be invested into
the calibration process. The conventional approach for improving models is updating prior
estimates through new information, thus an update in the level of the same kind of
information. In the centre of the argumentation the author places the idea of including into the
modelling process an expression for an a priori unknown kind of information. The knowledge
about both, the information of a new level and of a new kind, is acquired through the
modelling process and then used in the calibration process. Consequently, the definition of
the model assumptions must not only include a specification of everything that is true for the
model (necessary assumptions) but also an exclusion of everything that is untrue (sufficient
assumption). It is argued that naming what is not known, or, including in the modelling
process the exclusion of everything which is unknown, increases the accuracy of model

In current freight modelling scope for improvement has been identified in the area of
strengthening the link to policy analysis. Freight modelling as a decision-making tool is lacking
mechanisms to monitor the effect of policy measures. So far, the possibility of using freight
demand models for policy simulation has not been sufficiently exploited. This is especially
true for environmental targets such as stated in the Kyoto Protocol which hardly find any
recognition in national freight models.

In contrast to previous modelling approaches the proposed model includes a feedback
mechanism linking emission estimates which are derived from freight transport forecasts back
to transport policy design. The model consists of three modules, which are run under various
policy scenarios, a freight demand module (LEFT), a supply chain design module (CAST) and
an emissions module: The LEeds Freight Transport Model (LEFT) uses logit models to
provide estimates of the effect of macroeconomically neutral scenarios on mode split (road,
trainload and wagonload), average length of haul and total market size. The LEFT model is
complemented with the strategic network optimization model CAST which is applied by
shippers in the private sector for strategic design of their supply chains. In the context of this
research CAST is used to model a national distribution network for the UK based on one-year
data. The first two modules are used to deliver estimates on freight traffic activity on the basis
of which emissions from a set of six air pollutants and greenhouse gases are calculated for
the base year.

In a next step, the estimated emissions are compared to the environmental target set by the
government. Hence, the first iteration of the model attempts to predict the present. This
means that the observed data and the model results refer to the same time span. The gap
between the observed model outcomes in terms of actual emissions from freight transport can
be closed by applying an appropriate set of transport policy measures, such as fuel tax. The
objective of the first iteration is to determine the level of these measures. The obtained
information is then used to update the original model assumptions. In the second iteration the
model is then run under the new assumptions.

In summary, the paper would like to contribute to a generic discussion on testing assumptions
in freight demand modelling and increasing the accuracy of model forecasts. The underlying
question concerns the gap between model observations and the model results. To reconcile
the discrepancies a modelling framework is suggested which contains a feedback mechanism
for updating information which may include information of a new kind and level. The example
of using freight demand modelling for transport policy and the environment gives a flavour of
a possible application in freight transport practice.

Freight Modelling II
Session Number: 6, 16:30 - 18:30

An experimental economics investigation of shipper-carrier
interactions on the choice of mode and shipment size in freight
J Holguín-Veras, N Xu, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, US; G de Jong, ITS University of
Leeds, UK and Significance, NL; H Maurer, ITS University of Leeds, UK

In decision-making on freight transport, several actors play a role, including shippers and
carriers. This is one of the major differences with passenger transport, where most decisions
(e.g. on modes) are made by a single traveller. These interactions are at the core of key
decision-making processes pertaining to freight transport.

In the case of shipper-carrier interactions there is ample econometric evidence that indicates
that the interactions between shippers and carriers determine mode choice. This seems to be
the result of the interactions by which shippers, after experimenting with various shipment
sizes and receiving input (e.g., prices, level of service, damage rates) from the carriers, finally
settle down on a given shipment size, as discussed in Holgun-Veras (2002). The econometric
evidence suggests that the shipment size choice, in essence, determines mode/vehicle

However, this econometric evidence, though compelling is not yet enough to prove the
existence of a causal relationship between shippers decisions about shipment size and
carriers mode choice decision. This paper provides insight into this issue by means of
economic experiments. Data for testing the theory and for gaining insights about real
decisions can be obtained by experimental economics where respondents will be playing
shippers and carriers. In freight transport analysis, there are very few applications of
experimental economics (de Jong, 2005). An example of an application is Holgun-Veras and
Thorson (2003).

The paper will describe the design, conduct and outcomes of an experiment carrried out both
at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in the US and the Institute for Transport Studies of the
University of Leeds.

The objective of the experiment is to learn about interactions in the choice of mode and
shipment size in freight transport between shippers as sender of goods and carriers as
providers of transport services. In the initial set-up of the experiment with one shipper and
several competing carriers, first the shipper decides on the number of deliveries in a week,
which determines shipment size. To achieve this, the shipper minimises the sum of inventory
cost (at the producing end) and the price paid for transport services of the carrier.

Given the shippers choice on shipment size, each of the carriers then chooses a transport
chain (characterised by the number of legs and mode/vehicle type for every leg), by
minimising transport costs. The carrier then quotes a price for this shipment and the shipper
selects a carrier. This is repeated for several rounds. Initially the shipper will choose relatively
small shipment sizes (to keep inventory costs down) for which the transport costs per tonne
will be high. The shipper has incomplete and uncertain information about the transport costs
and has to learn about this from the offers of the carriers. In this situation the total logistics
costs (including inventory and transport cost) will not be minimised, because the shipper only
gets the transport cost information through the carrier. The experiment will show whether
shipper-carrier interaction will lead to an overall optimum (and if so under which conditions) or
whether the sub-optimality (too small shipments, a too high frequency) will be persistent.

Several set-ups for the experiment will be tested including experiments with a given market
shipping rate, experiments where each carrier can choose from several modes and
experiments where each carrier uses one particular mode.

The experiments will be piloted in January/February 2007 with Masters students, PhD
students and University staff representing the shipper and the carriers. Each of the carriers
has access to a PC with MS Excel to carry out calculations to prepare for their offer. The
shipper can equally use a PC with MS Excel to assist in the determination of the number of
deliveries. The cost functions of the shipper and the carriers will also be presented on these
PCs. The outcomes of the experiments will be analysed and reported in the paper.

Holgun-Veras, J. (2002). Revealed preference analysis of the commercial vehicle choice
process. Journal of Transportation Engineering, American Society of Civil Engineers 128(4):
pp. 336-346.

Holgun-Veras, J. and E. Thorson (2003) The role of experimental economics in freight
transportation research: preliminary results of experimentation. Paper presented at the 2003
European Transport Conference, Strasbourg.

Jong, G.C. de (2005) Experimental economics, transport and logistics. Paper presented at the
2005 European Transport Conference, Strasbourg.

Bayesian estimation of the value of travel time savings:
application to freight transport in France
A Nunez, LET, University of Lyon, FR

In this paper we apply Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain procedures to estimate the value
of time in freight transport in France. We conjugate the information of a revealed preference
survey including 1027 vehicles with a previous study of the value of time using classic
estimation, as a source of prior information.

The value of travel time savings (VTTS) is probably the most important concept in transport
economics. It allows to estimate the modal share and the optimal pricing of a new link or
service, and in evaluation, time savings, valuated through the value of time, uses to account
for the main part of a transport project benefit. Despite its importance, few convergences were
reached about the size, distribution, and determinants of the value of time. Although there is a
large literature available today on the passengers value of time, allowing for a good
interpretation and quantification of it, studies on the value of time of freight transport are very
scarce. The reasons for the little research in freight transport compared to passengers are
due to many reasons, specially the number of agents involved in the supply chain, and so in
the modal and itinerary choice, and the interrelations between then.

One of the main issues regarding the value of time is its distribution over the population. Logit
is by far the widest used model for estimation of discrete choice models and the derivation of
the value of time. Its popularity is due to the fact that the formula of choice probabilities takes
a closed form and is readily interpretable with good results related in literature. Classic
models like logit allow for the determination of a VTTS point estimate but not its distribution.
This is a very restrictive assumption both in terms of modelling and interpretation of results.

Advances in software and hardware performance have allowed to rapid simulation. Simulation
methods have been largely used in finance and economics. In this way a partial simulation
partial closed form discrete choice model called mixed logit has been used in many recent
applications allowing for distributed parameters. Mixed logit is estimated by maximum
simulated likelihood, which can sometimes lead to convergence problems, especially with
lognormals distributions, currently used in value of time estimations.

Furthermore, the introduction of prior knowledge is intrinsic to even the classic analysis. First,
the analyst usually has some priors about the result (i.e. one should expect that the value of
travel time to be positive and to lay within a reasonable set) and second, the set of hypothesis
and parameters need to the estimation of mixed logit models like the form of the distributions
and the starting values indirectly represent a prior hypothesis.

Bayesian estimations have some strong advantages compared to the classical techniques;
they allow for distributed coefficients but the estimation does not require any maximization,
rather, draws from the posterior are taken until convergence is achieved, avoiding
convergence problems and sample sizes necessary to achieve the convergence are
substantially smaller. Moreover, they can properly integrate a priori knowledge on the

In this paper we discuss a number of issues related to the estimation and the interpretation of
results in practical estimations of the value of time in transport; we identify sources of
systematic and random taste variations; we then propose a comparison of the different
methods without using relevant prior information; we measure the benefit of integrating a prior
distribution of VTTS and finally we provide a robust estimation of the value of travel time for
the freight transport in France. Results show that Bayesian estimations based on a prior
knowledge leads to more sound and robust results; furthermore we find that values used
currently in France should be reviewed upwards.

Theoretical issues in the development of a random utility model
of inter-agency choice, with an application to city logistics
G Paglione, R Batley, J N Ibáñez, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, UK

Whilst politicians have shown considerable enthusiasm for urban goods transport –
recognising the stimulus it offers to the development of cities (the so-called economies of
urbanization) – there is growing acceptance that this must be offset against less desirable
implications for the environment, congestion, the incidence of accidents and energy
consumption. The motivation for this paper arises from the proposition that many of the latter
implications are symptomatic of an economic failure: that is, a failure associated with
disequilibrium among the various agents comprising the supply chain. More specifically, there
is an evident lack of co-ordination between the relevant stakeholders (producers, shippers,
carriers, retailers, transport operators), and this manifests in inefficiency which is amplified
throughout the supply chain. Hence the principal contribution of this paper is to propose a
model that represents the preferences of each agent within the supply chain, as well as the
interaction between the preferences of these agents. We develop this representation within
the paradigm of the Random Utility Model (RUM), thereby facilitating practical application to
valuation, demand forecasting and economic appraisal.

Review of methods
Having defined the context for our work, the paper presents a review of methods. The
literature of game theory is vast, and our review therefore focuses on a particular interest in
applying game theoretic concepts to discrete choice models. Transport analysis is of course
well-versed in the use of discrete choice models, given their amenability to data on the
repeated choices of an individual traveller (as in stated preference analysis) or data on a
single choice by a sample of individual travellers (as in revealed preference analysis).
Following perhaps the suggestion of Manski [Manski, 2000], there has been an increasing
trend to include social variables, and in particular influence variables, in discrete choice
models [e.g. Brock and Durlauf, 2001; Soetevent, 2006; Kooreman and Soetevent, 2002 ;
Aribarg et al., 2002; Dellaert et al., 1998; Dosman and Adamowicz, 2002]. Influence variables
represent the relative weightings of different agents when their preferences exhibit interaction.
Furthermore, there has been a small number of papers that seek to more explicitly integrate
game theoretic concepts within discrete choice models [e.g. Bresnahan and Reiss, 1991;
Kooreman, 1994]. Our review devotes particular attention to the corpus of work by Hensher
and colleagues [Hensher and Chow, 1998; Brewer and Hensher, 2000; Hensher, 2002;
Hensher and Rose, 2004; Hensher and Puckett, 2004; Hensher and Puckett, 2005/a;
Hensher and Puckett, 2005/b], since this proposes and applies game-theoretic discrete
choice models to a specific interest in urban goods distribution.

Critique of methods
Arising from our review is a methodological critique. A particular focus of this critique is our
aspiration to ensure the validity of game-theoretic discrete choice models in terms of
microeconomic theory. This is not an abstract concern, since microeconomic theory equips us
with the apparatus to apply such models to our practical interests in valuation, demand
forecasting and economic appraisal. The critique identifies an unwelcome – and potentially
damning – property common to many of the models cited above. That is to say, the interest in
merging game theoretic concepts with discrete choice models often engenders the so-called
Mother Logit property [McFadden et al., 1977]. According to this property, which derives from
an attempt to accommodate similarities between discrete alternatives, the utility of an
alternative is the function not only of its own attributes, but also the attributes of other
alternatives. An unfortunate implication is that Mother Logit is not consistent with RUM
[McFadden and Train, 2000].

A new theoretical framework, with application
Guided by our critique, the paper then develops a new theoretical framework for representing
inter-agency choice within a discrete choice model, whilst ensuring consistency with

microeconomic theory (and RUM). We suggest that this can be achieved through exploiting
the vehicle of the Network GEV model [Daly and Bierlaire, 2006]. Daly and Bierlaire show that
this structure is consistent with McFaddens GEV requirements and is therefore consistent
with RUM. Whilst conceived originally as a representation of individual discrete choice, we
demonstrate that, through creative application, Network GEV might be re-constituted as a
model of inter-agency choice. Accepting this proposition, Network GEV brings a potential for
developing our interest in modelling interaction between decision-makers, whilst adhering to
the RUM paradigm. Having developed our framework, and articulated its theoretical
credentials, we illustrate by means of a worked example based on a conceptual urban
distribution centre scheme.

Freight Policy I
Session Number: 7, 10:30 - 12:30

An initial evaluation of Dublin Port Tunnel and the HGV
management strategy for the city
C Finnegan, B O'Brien, DTraynor, Dublin City Council, IE

On December 20th 2006, Dublin Port Tunnel officially opened as a dedicated route for Heavy
Goods Vehicles between Dublin Port (located in the heart of the city) and the greater road
network. It is part of the M50 motorway and completes the northern part of the C-Ring around
Dublin city. Prior to the construction of the tunnel, all port-bound traffic was forced to travel
through the city centre. The completed infrastructure now ensures that heavy goods traffic
can be removed to a large extent from the streets of the city centre. The Tunnel is toll-free for
Heavy Goods Vehicles and coaches over 25 seats. All other vehicles are charged between 3
and 12 euro depending on the time of day.

In order to encourage maximum use of the Port Tunnel by port related traffic, Dublin City
Council has introduced a Heavy Goods Vehicle Strategy. This strategy prohibits vehicles with
five or more axles from entering the city cordon area between 07:00 and 19:00 daily. Any 5 or
5+ axle vehicle seeking to enter the city cordon within these hours must apply for a permit.
Permits cost 5 euro per day for each vehicle entering the cordon and allow drivers to make
five stops to deliver or pick up goods. Premises receiving deliveries using vehicles with five or
more axles must register with Dublin City Council. The premises are obliged to submit
mitigation plans to show how they intend to reduce the number of deliveries from five axles

This paper provides an initial evaluation of the Port Tunnel and the complementary HGV
Management Strategy. The impacts to date in terms of traffic, environment and quality of life
for the Dublin City are outlined. Furthermore, the future direction of the HGV Management
Strategy for Dublin is assessed.

Developing freight policy options for a peripheral country in
Europe: the case of Scotland
Y Jin, G Deane, WSP, UK

Drawing upon a recent study we led on freight policy options in Scotland, UK, this paper
discusses the opportunities, constraints and key issues that need to be tackled in freight

transport in Scotland, from the perspective of European transport policy development since
the mid-term review of the Transport White Paper.

As a peripheral country in Europe, Scotland depends critically on its external freight links for
long term trade and economy growth. Within Scotland, both congestion in the urbanised
Central Belt and maintaining life-line connections with the remote and rural Highlands and
Islands are posing challenging issues for users, operators and policy makers. The country’s
economic structure is evolving rapidly in many sectors, amid the global and European
changes in production and trade. In order to develop an efficient freight transport network that
facilitates the medium to long term prosperity and quality of life in Scotland, it is necessary to
take a comprehensive view at the Scottish, European and global scales.

In this paper the comprehensive assessment is based on two complementary analyses that
have been carried out in the study. On the one hand, a bottom-up approach was used where
views from a wide range of producers, consumers, operators, trade associations,
campaigning groups and public sector have been assembled through Delphi survey,
interviews and a series of freight policy workshops. This has provided a clear picture of how
the current system operates, and the trends in the next 5 years. On the other hand, a top-
down approach has been adopted through appraising longer terms trends national accounts
including extended input-output techniques for demand growth at external, trunk and local
networks, and through examining emerging technology in railfreight and multimodal terminal
design. The analyses have been used to support the formulation and sifting of policy options.
We will review the policy options in twelve key areas identified from the points of view of
enhancing business competitiveness, reducing negative environmental impacts, supporting
the development of the freight industry in Scotland, maintaining and improving accessibility to
rural and remote areas, and coordinating with wider policies and industry initiatives. These
twelve areas are:
1) Balancing freight and passenger requirements on transport infrastructure.
2) Provision of additional capacity for freight, including strategic freight hubs at the national
3) Capitalising on online retail business growth
4) Promoting modal shift to rail and shipping
5) Improving efficiency and sustainability of road transport
6) Minimising the negative impact of rising transport costs, particularly diesel
7) Levelling the playing field between UK and European transport operators
8) Enhancing skills and professional image in freight and logistics
9) Maintaining road, rail, ferry and airfreight links to remote and rural areas
10) Addressing freight issues in the wider transport strategies
11) Integration with other policy areas and between public agencies
12) Coordinating freight policy with other regions in the UK

The impact of road pricing on shippers and freight carriers: the
distribution of costs and benefits
D M Vonk Noordegraaf, Delft University of Technology and TNO Built Environment and
Geosciences, NL; O A W T van de Riet, Delft University of Technology, NL

The impact of road pricing on shippers and freight carriers: the distribution of costs and

The Dutch government is planning to implement road pricing to deal with increasing traffic
congestion and other negative externalities. The implementation is scheduled in 2012;
however, the policy design is not yet final. For designing a sound policy, information about the
effect of different types of road pricing policies is needed. Already many studies have been
performed on the effects of road pricing. However, most studies focused on passenger

transport, little is known about freight transport, in particular about the behavioral responses
of firms to road pricing.

Road pricing affects the behavior of firms, resulting in changes in the supply chain. The most
important actors in the supply chain, from a freight transport point of view, are the shipper and
the freight carrier (of which many shippers make use of). The effects of road pricing on the
supply chain are the resultant of the costs and benefits for individual firms, how they are going
to respond and how these responses affect the behavior and position of other firms in the
supply chain.

This paper gives insight in the impact of road pricing on the behavior of shippers and freight
carriers in the supply chain, in particular the distribution of costs and benefits. Road pricing
might result in an increase in transport costs due to the charges and to benefits in terms of
travel time savings. The sum of costs and benefits determines their reaction. In this paper
three types of reactions are distinguished: continue their current business processes; change
their operations either by mitigating the transport costs or by benefiting from the lower
transport costs; or either pass on the costs to other actors in the supply chain or claiming the
benefits from other actors in the supply chain. Especially the latter response will affect other
parties in the supply chain.

Approach taken
Core of the approach taken is an exploratory multiple case study focussed on the Rotterdam
port area, which faces severe congestion and is of strategic importance for the Dutch
economy. In total 21 face-to-face interviews with firms from different sectors (manufacture of
chemical products, wholesale, retail and transport) were held. The selection includes sectors
with a high freight transport use and sectors important for the Dutch economy. The selected
firms differ in size and in their use of time-critical transport. The firms were asked how they
would respond to different types of road pricing policies with respect to their transport and
logistical operation, their location, and the cooperation with their carriers and other firms. Also
questions about the motivations for these responses were asked.

Key findings
Road pricing can imply higher costs of transport and can therefore be an incentive for firms to
use less transport. However, it can also imply reduced congestion which is beneficial for
firms. The sum of costs and benefits differs per sector type. Sectors with time-critical and
high-value goods benefit most and sectors with non-time-critical and low-value goods suffer
most. The sum of cost and benefits in turn determines the behavioral responses of firms.

Many shippers indicate that they will try to pass on the costs to the final customer which can
result in an increased price level. Most carriers indicate that they will try to pass all costs on to
the shipper. How much of the costs can be recovered by the carrier, i.e. to which extent a
shipper accepts the carrier to pass on costs, differs. Most shippers will not accept their
carriers to pass on the full costs although they realize that carriers already deal with low profit
margins and it is not in their interest to let carriers go bankrupt. In case of benefits for the
carriers, shippers indicate that they will claim lower prices for transport or better service.
However, shippers are afraid that carriers will use the reduced transparency in the freight
transport market to make more profit and they will not accept the claims.

The Wales Freight Strategy
G Walters, Halcrow Group, UK; J Thomas, Transport Wales, Welsh Assembly Government,

Freight transport is more important to the way of life we take for granted than we realise.
There are obvious functions, such as the transit of consumer goods to shops, supplies to
hospitals and waste removal. Freight transport is an intrinsic part of the economy. However,

freight requirements are often poorly considered in the field of transport planning, and are
typically associated with negative impacts, particularly on the environment. Initiatives to
consider freight in transport planning strategy have been tried, but these vary in scope and
effectiveness, and often dont represent official policy.

This paper discusses development of the Wales Freight Strategy, one of the first national
freight policies in the UK, and introduces the philosophy and policies of the strategy.

The Transport (Wales) Act 2006 is a watershed for transport in Wales, putting a general
transport duty on the National Assembly for Wales to promote and encourage; safe,
integrated, sustainable, efficient and economic transport facilities and services (including)
those required for the transportation of freight. The Welsh Assembly Government, with the
assistance of Halcrow, the Wales Transport Research Centre and the Wales Freight Group,
has developed the Wales Freight Strategy, as a daughter document to the Wales Transport

Key points covered by the paper include:

Developing the strategy in particular taking into account how the Wales Freight Strategy has
been specifically developed to fit with the outcomes and themes of the Wales Transport

The role of the Wales Freight Group of informed stakeholders;

Policies and aims some of the specific initiatives being suggested by the strategy, that
address freight demand and supply, with consideration of modes operating singly and in
inter/multi-modal situations, as well as the impacts of freight transport; and

Taking the strategy forward including the partnerships that will be developed and actions to
be undertaken, as set out in the steps towards delivery of the strategy.

Freight Policy II
Session Number: 8, 13:30 - 15:00

Introduction of longer and heavier trucks on Dutch roads: Or
how do they fit in?
L Aarts, T Hesselmans, CROW: National Information and Technology Platform for
Infrastructure, Traffic, Transport and Public Space, NL

From 2004 till 2006, the Netherlands held a large-scale and severe test with longer (25,25M)
and heavier (60T) trucks. The dimensions of these trucks are similar with the European
Modular System. These trucks are already operational in Sweden and Finland. The
monitoring results of the test in the Netherlands were positive. In august 2006 the Minister of
Transport decided to allow EMS-combinations on Dutch roads on the basis of exemptions
until 1 November 2007. Till than, the participants of the trial can keep on driving under the
same conditions as within the test. The government will use this period to built a permanent
regime based on a system of exemptions. One aspect is to investigate the concrete meaning
of the introduction of these vehicles for road design and traffic flow, and not only on highways
but also on the subordinated road network.

One should remember that the Netherlands are a small country with small distances, with a
fine branched and heavily used road network. On first sight these dimensions therefore does
not seem appropriate for introducing bigger trucks. The Transport Research Centre of the
Ministry of Transport started an inquiry on the effects of the introduction of longer and heavier
trucks on the road infrastructure. This was done in cooperation with CROW (National
Information and Technology Platform for Infrastructure, Traffic, Transport and Public Space).
The used methodology is divers: from experts opinions to calculations.
The paper on the ETC conference will reveal the results of the national inquiry. By showing
the characteristics of the Dutch road infrastructure, the paper reveals the possible obstacles
(or the absence of) concerning road construction, structural works, road design, traffic flow
and traffic safety. The paper will also show how the obstacles will be met in a small and busy
country like the Netherlands are.

Freight Policy III
Session Number: 9, 15:30 - 17:00

Greenhouse gas emissions and freight transport: a transport
time and logistical organization approach
H G Lopez-Ruiz, Y Crozet , LET, University of Lyon, FR

1. Background

Today, numerous works conclude that freight transport seems to be completely coupled to
economic and export/import growth. Therefore, as a direct consequence of economic
development freight transport sits today as one of the major final energy consumers and one
of the most important sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, in the absence of
major technological change, this unsustainable situation will most undoubtedly get worse in
the future. Consequently, this situation of continuous increase in freight transport clearly
poses an environmental problem in a world that is actually trying to attain sustainability. In this
paper we propose to address this problem from a two pronged view: rising energy prices and
the environmental problem posed by carbon dioxide emissions.

2. Instruments & Development

Based on our recent progress concerning passenger and freight transport in prospective
planning we intend to implement a transport time/logistical reorganization approach based on
the TILT model (Transport Issues in the Long Term which will be reviewed in extension in the
communication). The TILT model takes into account the existing links between demography,
economic growth, logistical organization, freight transport and CO2 emissions. By combining
two methodologies: a back-casting approach and a re-foundation of the energy-environment
modeling structures, TILT is a very long time-frame model that properly assess very long term
modifications of social and cultural preferences as well as technology evolution dynamics in
relation to them.

Starting out from this basis, the originality of our approach lies in the fact that we believe that
using a speed/GDP elasticity implies different forms of freight transport saturation based on a
growing need for speed as GDP and freight value grow. Moreover, the different forms in
freight transport saturation are directly linked to the idea that modal shares are determined by
modal speed, transport times and logistical organization. In this manner, transport modal
saturation rhythms can be varied through the speed/GDP elasticity and through logistical

3. Suggestions.

Starting out from this basis, a number of sustainable freight scenarios can be envisioned.
These scenarios will enable us to test the influence of a certain number of public policies
ranging from inciting technological progress, to tolls, rationing (tradable emission permits) and
intermodality development. We will show that these policies can be mixed and used to attain
significant carbon reductions both in a high technological and a low technological future.

The future flows of dangerous goods by road in the Netherlands
J Francke, KIM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis, NL

The Dutch government has a responsibility to ensure the external safety of the population.
The concept of external safety is used here in terms of offering protection to people living
near routes used for the transport of hazardous materials and near companies producing,
processing or storing these substances. The Netherlands is a densely populated country and
conflicts are expected between the increasing need for living space (spatial development) and
the growing volume of transported hazardous materials.

To make sure that the transport of hazardous substances in the Netherlands in future remains
possible, a new, proactive, policy approach is announced in the long-term policy-planning
document Nota Mobiliteit which was adopted in parliament in 2006. In this new approach the
central government should no longer focus on resolving local bottlenecks, but should study
the entire chain of hazardous substances, from production to usage, together with local
government, infrastructure administrators and the corporate sector. Based on this approach,
taking the expected transport volumes and planned spatial developments as a starting point,
the state wants to define a national basic network for the transport of hazardous substances.
The state will stipulate conditions for transport on and spatial planning around this network, to
make sure that risks as a consequence of the transport of dangerous goods over the network
are as low as possible. Attention must also be paid to the prevention of the release of
dangerous substances at the source, to the intelligent use of space and to proper
organisation of disaster recovery facilities. To make this possible, the parties involved must
hold one another accountable.

In order gain insight into the location and the extent of high-risk situations data is collected
about the transport of hazardous substances and of developments in the surroundings of
transport routes. Computer models are used to calculate the risks and effects of accidents
involving the various categories of dangerous goods. The results of these calculations are
published in a risk-map available to the public showing iso-risk-curves: the distance to the
transport routes where a certain level of personal risk (PR) is reached (or is exceeded). The
number of vulnerable locations (houses, hospitals) along roads within this contour of
maximum Personal Risk was limited in 2002 but is expected to be rise in the near future if no
action is taken.

For the transport by pipeline, water, rail and air information about volume and nature of
transported dangerous goods is registered conscientiously using automatic notification and
tracking systems along the transport route. However, for the transport of dangerous goods by
road there is only very limited and unreliable information about the chosen routes. To remedy
this lack of (reliable) information Rijkswaterstaat started in 2006 with a new way of data
collection on the transport of hazardous substances using automatic video registration along
the highway network. Based on this new data more accurate and reliable information about
the volume and routes becomes available to describe and monitor the current situation.

To estimate the possible future amounts of hazardous substances transported by road
forecasts have been made based on four long-term scenarios of socio-economic
development. These four scenarios are designed on two key uncertainties: the international
cooperation and the institutional reforms in the public sector.

Subject of this paper is the need for reliable policy information in the domain of external safety
along roads. It describes the way in which this information is obtained and the method of
calculation of the volume and nature of the dangerous goods transported along roads in the
Netherlands both in the present and the future.

Trucks driving at night and their effect on local air pollution
L Int Panis, C Beckx, G Cosemans, VITO, BE

In January 2007 the Flemish minister of transport proposed to improve the opportunities for
loading goods in the port of Antwerp so that trucks can avoid congestion by driving at night.
Avoiding congestion is seen as an environmental benefit by many policy makers although the
measure would obviously cause negative impacts related to night time noise exposure.
Information on the effect of changed timing of the exhaust emissions on their local dispersion
was unavailable.

Using a simple 1 dimensional Gaussian plume model, we studied the effect of shifting the
timing of the emissions from day to night. Such an effect is easy to demonstrate, but has been
overlooked by researchers because the focus of most studies has been either on episodes of
severe air pollution or on estimating the annual average concentrations for exposure and
analysis of health effects. In this study we have used high resolution meteorological data.
Wind speed and atmospheric stability classes at 10 minute time resolution were used to
calculate the effect of truck emissions on pollutant concentrations at different distances from
the road (10 meters, 100 meters and 1 km). We demonstrate that identical emissions will
cause local impacts that are higher at night than during the day. This can be explained by
differences in average wind speed and atmospheric stability. The effect is most pronounced
at short distances from the road. At a distance of 10 meters, local concentrations will be up to
three times higher during the night than during the day although the emissions are the same
(assuming equal speed and traffic dynamics). A distance of 10 meters is a typical distance
between the center of major roads and the facades of buildings. This has serious implications
for the PM air quality targets that prove very hard to comply with in areas affected by
residential ribbon development. It has been shown that PM concentrations in 2010 will not
meet air quality standards in the vicinity of many important roads. Partly changing the timing
of the emissions on these roads from day to night will likely offset whatever benefits are
gained from improved traffic flows. The magnitude of this unexpected difference in dispersion
is large enough to offset all improvements in European PM emissions standards for heavy
duty vehicles between Euro0 and Euro3.

In addition our results also highlights the fact that annual average impacts (e.g. exposure of
urban populations) may hide important seasonal differences between summer months when
days are long and winter time when rush hours occur either before sunrise or after sunset.
Such aspects need to be studied in much more detail before the environmental
consequences of specific transport policy measures can be assessed.


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