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					                   CHAPTER II – THE CBA MODEL


I – INTRODUCTION ........................................................ 2
II – BENEFITS AND COSTS ............................................. 3
  2.1 – COSTS ....................................................................... 3
  2.2 – BENEFIT AND CONSUMER‟S SURPLUS ................................... 4
  2.3 – BENEFIT AND PRODUCER‟S SURPLUS ................................... 7
III – ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF CONSUMERS
SURPLUS ....................................................................... 10
  3.1 – MARSHALLIAN MEASURE VERSUS HICK‟S .............................10
  3.2 – DIAGRAM ...................................................................13
  3.3 – MARGINAL UTILITY OF INCOME ........................................16
IV – EXTERNALITIES ..................................................... 18
  4.1 – WHEN EXTERNALITY EXISTS?...........................................18
  4.2 – WHEN AN EXTERNALITY IS POTENTIALLY RELEVANT? ..............19
  4.3 – WHEN AN EXTERNALITY IS RELEVANT? ...............................20
V – CONCLUSION .......................................................... 22
QUESTIONS ................................................................... 23
                     I – INTRODUCTION

In this section, we give an outline of the main ingredients
that make up the particular cost benefit model.
Each ingredient will be examined later in a separate chapter.
The basic idea (Marglin, 1968) is to assess a project (a pol-
icy) comparing its cost and benefits.
As the general model points out, the aim is to maximise the
difference between B (Benefits) and C (Costs), then:
                    NSB = B-C                               (1)
     (NSB=Net Social Benefit from a government policy)
The difference is efficiency of the project. It can be regarded
as the additional resources that are now available.
The greater the difference, the greater the contribution of the
project.
When no constraints other than production possibilities ex-
ists, all projects with a positive difference must be ap-
proved
                       Table 1 – Simple choice

             B      C
P1           100    60
P2           60     100


When only one project can be accepted one chooses the
project with the highest benefit.


                              -2-
                 II – BENEFITS AND COSTS

Under most circumstances the changes in producers sur-
plus, consumer surplus and government revenue pro-
vide a measure of the monetary value of a government policy
benefit and cost.
Because these value are in monetary terms (1) can be summa-

rised:
             NBS = CS + PS + Gov Revenue                 (2)


     (NBS=Net Social Benefit from a government policy)
Price are an accurate measure of benefits and costs
when the market is well functioning
Competitive markets tend to be a good estimate of benefits and
costs while observed prices in a distorted market tend to be
a poor measure.

                          2.1 – Costs

The opportunity cost is the best measure for cost

It is equal to the benefit of the next best alternative. Re-
nouncing to this next best alternative is the condition to choose
the current solution.

Burning a 500€ banknote has an opportunity cost of 505€ to in
consideration that putting this amount money in a bank would
increase the utility by the interest rate.



                               -3-
In a CBA assessment accountable cost must be used only if
they truly reflects the opportunity cost. If not, they must
be de biased instead of reflecting the true social cost of a re-
source.
If for example, the national Post office doesn‟t includes in it
costs the cost of using it‟s building because it owns it from a
very long time, analyst should include an amortization.

           2.2 – Benefit and consumer‟s surplus
“The utility for an individual of the consumption of a good or a
service, such as it is estimated by the consumers, is at least
equal to the price which they pay for this consumption”.
Actually, it is more important, since a certain number of con-
sumers would be ready to pay more than what they pay in-
deed. It is this difference which measurement the sur-
plus of consumer. This surplus thus indicates the benefit that
the individuals draw from their consumption.
Measurement techniques
Le surplus du consommateur mesure la différence entre la va-
leur que les individus accordent à leur consommation de tabac
et le prix que cette dernière leur coûte. Le prix est connu, mais
le premier terme du calcul n‟est pas observable. Toute la diffi-
culté réside donc dans le choix d‟une technique permet-
tant de calculer une valeur qui n‟est pas directement
mesurable sur le marché.
Techniquement, on considère généralement que le surplus du
consommateur est égal à la différence entre la disposition mar-
ginale à payer indiquée par la droite de demande et le prix ef-
fectivement payé.



                               -4-
                                  QO

                       S C(Q)     p(Q)d (Q) P .Q
                                               O   O
                                  0




          Graphique 1 – Le surplus du consommateur



                     Unités monétaires

             A



                                       B
            P0


                                                       D : droite de demande


                                                                    Quantité
                 O
                                       Q0
Si le prix du bien s'établit au niveau P0, les consommateurs
demanderont la quantité Q0. Leur dépense pour le bien s'élève-
ra à P0Q0, représentée par la surface OP0BQ0. Or, la valeur ac-
cordée à chacune des unités consommées – indiquée par les
points qui forment le segment AB de la droite de demande D -
est supérieure au prix payé (sauf celle de la dernière unité con-
sommée pour laquelle la disposition à payer est juste égale au
prix) Les consommateurs bénéficient donc d‟un surplus, mesuré
par l‟aire P0AB.


                                       -5-
Formellement
La fonction de demande, supposée ici linéaire, est de la forme
                            P  A  Q                      (1)
Dans ces conditions, on montre que le surplus du consomma-
teur Sc s'écrit :
                                                 1
                            Sc  0,5  P  Q               (2)
                                                 e
Démonstration :
On sait que Sc = PAB. Or, la surface d'un triangle est égale à la
moitié du produit de la base par la hauteur, i.e. S = (0,5 x AP x
PB), soit S = (0,5 x AP x OQ) puisque PB = OQ.
Comme M = (OP x OQ), on peut écrire que OQ = M/OP, ce qui
implique que :
                     S = (0,5 x M x AP/OP).                 (3)
Le rapport AP/OP doit être mis en relation avec l'élasticité e de
la droite D, en négligeant le signe.
Une diminution de 100% de la quantité (de Q vers O) est asso-
ciée à une augmentation des prix donné par le rapport AP/OP.
On sait par définition de l‟élasticité que Q  e  P
Donc :
     AP
e       100%  1
     OP
     1       AP
        
     e       OP



                                -6-
                    AP                        1
On remplace alors      dans (3) par sa valeur   il vient (2).
                    OP                        e
Trois remarques :
1. Comme l'indique l'équation 2, le surplus du consomma-
teur varie en raison inverse de la valeur absolue de
l‟élasticité-prix.
2. Lorsque l‟élasticité-prix est infinie, c‟est-à-dire que les
consommateurs sont très sensibles au prix, alors le surplus
du consommateur est nul. Dans le cas où l‟élasticité est infé-
rieure à 0,5 en valeur absolue, le surplus du consommateur est
supérieur à la dépense.
3. Attention, il est probable que l‟hypothèse de linéarité de la
demande conduit à sous-estimer le surplus du consom-
mateur.

           2.3 – Benefit and producer‟s surplus
Afin de mesurer l‟impact complet de la production d‟un
bien sur la société, il convient de prendre également en
compte le bénéfice dégagé par la production et la dis-
tribution du bien. Comment mesurer ce bénéfice et quel est
sa signification ?
Techniques de mesure
Le bénéfice engendré par la production est « mesuré par la
valeur de la production alternative qui pourrait être produite
avec les ressources en capital et en travail qui sont mobilisées
par la production de tabac (on raisonne ici en termes de coût
d‟opportunité) ».
Le surplus du producteur est égal à la différence entre le
revenu tiré de la production et le coût d‟opportunité des res-

                               -7-
sources engagées. Il correspond à une « rente » constituée
par les sommes versées au-dessus du montant mini-
mum nécessaire pour garantir que le bien sera produit.
Dit autrement, le surplus du producteur est égal à la
somme qui pourrait être retirée aux producteurs sans
venir diminuer la quantité produite.



               Co˛t

       A
                                           S : courbe d'offre


                             B
       P



        C


                                                          Quantitˇ
           O
                             Q

                Graphique 2 – Le surplus du producteur


                  Q
SP (Q )  PQ   CM (Q )dQ                                      (4)
                  0
SP (Q )  PQ  CV (Q )                                          (5)



                                 -8-
      En effet :
                                  dCT (Q ) dCV (Q )
      CT (Q )  CV (Q )  CF                      Cm (Q )
                                    dQ       dQ
      Or (Q )  PQ  CT (Q )
       SP (Q )  (Q )  CF
Pour accepter de produire une quantité quelconques, les pro-
ducteurs doivent recevoir en échange, pour chaque unité, un
montant au moins égal à celui qui est indiqué par la droite
d'offre S. Or, toutes les unités produites seront en fait vendues
au même prix.
Avec un prix P0, les producteurs offriront la quantité Q0 et dé-
gageront alors un surplus égal à la différence entre le revenu
tiré de la vente (représenté par la surface OP 0BQ0) et la surface
située sous la droite de demande (OCBQ0), soit P0BC.
Formellement
                                         P Q
                                Wp                             (6)
                                        (1   )
Démonstration :


Trois remarques.
1. L'ampleur du surplus du producteur dépend de l'élasticité
de l'offre. Si les quantités offertes sont très sensibles au prix
(par exemple parce que les ressources engagées dans la pro-
duction sont facilement redéployables vers une autre pro-
duction), une petite baisse du prix se soldera par une réduction
importante de la production. Cela se traduit graphiquement
par une droite d'offre relativement plate.

                                  -9-
Le surplus du producteur est alors d'autant plus faible
que l'offre est élastique. Ainsi s‟il est facile de trouver une
production qui vient remplacer de manière rentable la produc-
tion du bien, une petite baisse du prix conduira à un change-
ment important dans la production.
Les producteurs seront nombreux à préférer produire la pro-
duction alternative. Dans ce cas, l'offre du bien est relative-
ment élastique. Le surplus du producteur sera d‟autant plus
petit que l‟offre est élastique, ce qui se représente par une
droite d‟offre (S) plate, réduisant la surface du triangle PBC.
2. Lorsqu‟il n‟existe pas de production alternative suffi-
samment rentable, alors la droite d‟offre est inélastique
(verticale) et le surplus du producteur est important.
3. Notons enfin que la surface CBQ0O représente le coût va-
riable total de production sauf si la production est monopolis-
tique. Dans ce dernier cas, cette surface mesure le coût total.

     III – ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF CONSUMERS
                      SURPLUS

Consider one individual faced by a single price change.

         3.1 – Marshallian measure versus Hick‟s
Marshallian measure
The first case to consider is one where the price rise is too
large as to cause the individual to cease consuming the
product entirely.
There is a current level of satisfaction with the production and a
level of satisfaction without the product. The difference is the
Marshallian measure. Marshall (1942) defined consumer surplus

                              -10-
as “ the excess of the price which he would be willing to pay
rather than go without the thing, over that which he actually
pay”.
The compensating variation
When one refrains the all or nothing comparison, other
measure of consumer surplus can be considered? These other
measures are due to Hicks (1943).
The compensating variation (CV) is “the amount of compensa-
tion that one can take away from individuals and leave them
just as well off as before the change”.
Again, the change we are considering is a price reduc-
tion caused by an increase in the output from a public
project.
The CV works under the assumption that the price change will
occur. For this reason it is call a “forward teste that is allowing
the change to take place and trying to value the new situation.
It asks what is the individual „s WTP for that change such as
the utility level is the same before the price change took place.”
Although the concept is forward looking, the utility level after
the WTP amount has been extracted from the individual to the
original utility level.
The CV is also a WTP concept but it does not operate with the
standard (Marshallian demand curve). As always, one is chang-
ing price, holding income constant. But, the price change has
an income effect (the mower price means that the purchas-
ing power has increased, and so moire can be spent on all
goods) as well as a substitution effects (the lower prices for the
public project means that other goods are relatively more ex-
pensive and their consumption will be reduced.


                               -11-
The CV tries to isolate the substitution effect and elimi-
nate the income effect. It tries to establish how much more
the individual is willing to purchase of the public project assum-
ing that the purchasing power effect can be negated. The re-
sulting price and quantity relation; with the income effect ex-
cluded I, is the compensated demand curve. The area under
the compensated demand curve measure the CV of the price
change.
The equilibrating variation.
There is as second way of isolating the income effect
which is called by Hicks the equilibrating variation (EV). This is
defined as follows” The amount of compensation that has to be
given in order that an individual forgo the change yet be as well
off as after the change”.
For the EV the price change does not take place. It is there-
fore called the “backward test”. That is the individual is
asked to value the forgoing of the change. The individuals is to
receive a sum of money to be as well off as if the change has
taken place. It is, nonetheless, also a WTP concept, in the
sense that it records what others have to be willing to pay to
prevent the individual having the benefit of the change.
The difference is that the CV measures the maximum
WTP of the individual, while the EV measures the mini-
mum that must be received by the individual.
There is an equilibrated demand curve to parallel the compen-
sated one. The income effect involves giving the individ-
ual sum of money to compensate for the purchasing
power effect that is not being allowed to occur.
The income effect is being neutralized but at a higher level
of purchasing power. In this way all that remains is the
relative price effect, the substitution effect as before. The

                               -12-
area under the equilibrated demand curve measures the EV of
the price change.

                         3.2 – Diagram
All three measures will now be explained in term of next dia-
gram. We consider two goods, X and Y? the change that will be
analysed is a fall off the price of good X. This can be thought to
be caused by a public project for example, say the government
builds a hydro-electricity plant, which lowers the cost f electric-
ity ti consumers. Good Y, on the vertical axis, will be the nu-
meraire (he unit I which relative values will be expressed).
The top half of the diagram presents the consumer‟s indif-
ference map for X and Y, together with the budget constraint.
An indifference curve shows all combination of the two goods
that gives the individuals a particular level of utility. Curves to
the north east show higher levels of satisfaction.
The budget line shows all combination of the two goods that
can be purchased with a fixed income and a given set of con-
sumer price for X and Y. The individual‟s aim is to reach the
highest indifference curve, subject remaining on the budget
line.
For the specified budget line Y1 X 1 , the individual choose
point A, which produces the level of satisfaction U1 (A is the
tangency point between the indifference curve and the budget
line).
The slope if the budget line is determined by the ration of the
      P
prices x . Thus, when the price of X falls, the slope will flatten,
       Py
causing the budget line to rotate outwards from Y1 . The new

                               -13-
budget line is denoted Y1 X 2 . With the new relative prices, the
individual choose point B on U 2 .

The bottom half of the diagram traces the implications if
the indifference curve analysis for the price ad quantity relation
(i.e demand) for X.
The original ratio of relative prices defines the price P1 . At this
price Q1 is purchased, being the X co-ordinate f the A on the
indifference curve diagram. The P1 and Q1 combination fixes the
point a on the lower half of the diagram? In this way we move
from point A on the indifference curve diagram to point a in the
demand curve. With the lower ration of relatives prices, P2 is
defined. The individual by moving to point B on the top part of
the diagram chooses Q4 of the X. The P2 and Q4 pairing locates
point b on the lower part. Connecting point a and b determines
the traditional, Marshallian demand curves.
The CV and EV both contain only substitution effects. They
represents movement along indifference curves.
For the CV, one is to be kept at the original level of satisfac-
tion. The movement along indifference curve U1 from point A
to point D (D is where a budge line with the flatter slope is tan-
gent to U1 ). In termes of the diagram this translates to the
point a and d. Connecting these two points forms the compen-
sated demand curve.
Similarly the EV keeps the individual at the higher level of
satisfaction U 2 and traces the substitution effect movement
from point C to point B. (C is where a budget line with the


                                -14-
original slope to tangent to U 2 ). The corresponding points on h
lower point of the diagram are c and b. Connecting points c and
b forms the equilibrated demand curve?
The consumer surplus effect of the price change P1 to P2 is given
as the area under demand curve between these two prices.
Since there are three demand curves, we have three
separate measure.
The Marshallian measure is the area P2baP1 .

The CV is the area P2daP1

The EV is the area P2bcP1 .

             Fig 3 – Alternative measure to consumer‟s surplus

             Y1


                                    A                          C


                                               D                    B

                                                                                           X
Price        O                                       X1                     X2
of X
                                a
                                                          c
        P1


        P2                                                              b
                                           d



         O                                                                       Quantity of X
                                 Q1        Q2             Q3       Q4

             Marshallian measure: AB               var CS: P2baP1
             Compensating variation: AD            var CS: P2daP1
             Equilibrating variation: CB           -15-
                                                   var CS: P2bcP1
              3.3 – Marginal utility of income
The relative sizes of the three measures are also shown in the
next diagram.
The Marshallian measure is in between the smallest
measure, the CV, and the largest measure, the EV.
This ordering always holds for beneficial changes (where people
are better off after the change than they were before the
change) as with the price reduction we were considering. The
order is reversed for adverse changes. It is instructive to ana-
lyse further the relation between the CV and the EV.
The key to understanding the relative size of the measures lies
in the concept of the marginal utility of income. It is usual
to assume that the marginal utility of income diminishes
as income rise. Thus, if one is at huger level of income, one
will value higher in monetary terms because money income is
worth less.
On the next diagram the marginal utility f income is on the ver-
tical axis and income on horizontal axis. The curve relating the
two variables from right to left. Consider a given sized utility
changes, that is an area of a particular magnitude.
The income equivalent measured along the horizontal axis -
is larger with the level of income. Thus even though the
areas Y1Y2SR and Y2Y3TS indicate equal sized utility changes,
the income equivalent are different.
The higher income reference point would value the change as
Y2Y3 , while the lower-income reference point would value the
change as Y1Y2 , a considerably smaller amount.

                              -16-
                      Fig 4. Marginal utility of income
         Marginal utility of income


                            R




                                           S



                                                  T




                            Y1        Y2         Y3   income




We have just seen that the higher the utility, or real in-
come , the higher one evaluates a good in monetary
termes.
Thus for a beneficial change one‟s money evaluation is greater
after than before the change. Since the EV tries to make
individuals as well off s they would have been with the change,
it must involve a larger amount than the CV, which tires to
make people as well as before the change occurred.
Which to use depends on the purpose.
CV is preferred in theoretical work. But often the legal sys-
tem decides who should compensate whom by the allocation of
property rights.
For example, the resident near a proposed airport are to
made as well off with the airport as they where previously?

                                               -17-
Builders of the airport must pay the residents to forgo their
peace and quiet. Resident are not expected to have to pay the
airport authority to refrain from building the airport.

                    IV – EXTERNALITIES

The presence of externality changes the CBA criterion:
     NPV  SC  SP  GVR  X                            (7)
Buchanan and Stubblebine (1962) provided a battery of defi-
nitions of externality, which are very useful for public policy
purpose.
They define when an externality exists and where there is
and there is not an externality problem.

              4.1 – When externality exists?
Externality is said to exists when there is interdependence
between utility or production functions of individuals:
                      UA = UA (X1 , X 2 , …, X m , Y1 )     (8)

This states that the utility of individual A is dependent on the
activities X1, X2,…, Xm that are under his control but also on an
other Yi which is under the control of second person, indi-
vidual B.
The outside activity Y1 can enhance A‟s utility, for example, if
B is a gardener who grows beautiful flowers that decorate A‟s
neighbourhood) or can detract from A‟s utility (for example if
B is a smoker who indirectly cause the non smoking A to get a
cancer).



                                -18-
    4.2 – When an externality is potentially relevant?
Two aspects of the above specification are important.
1.     The marginal utility to A from Y1 should not be zero. For
example, I may not care whether a person smokes or not. In
this case the smoking does not cause an externality to me.
2.     If A is not affected when B is in his best position, then
this would not be an important external effect. For exam-
ple, I may care whether another person smokes. But if that
person choose not to smoke, then again we do not have an
externality.
These two considerations lead to a more precise formula-
tion. The fact that he and me wear shoes is not the proof of
interdependence between he and me.
Let‟s B‟s equilibrium value of Y1 be denoted Y1*. Let‟s denote
A‟s marginal utility MU from Y1 by MUYA1.
 A “potential relevant externality” is when “the activity ac-
tually performed generates any desire on the part of the af-
fected party A, to modify the behaviour of the part empowered
to take action B, through trade, persuasion, compromise, con-
vention. If I can‟t stop the activity of the other party, there is
not externality.”
As long as MUA  0 (and Y1  Y1* )
             Y1
                                                             (9)

holds, an externality remains (utility function are interde-
pendent).
It is called potentially relevant because A would like B‟s be-
haviour to adjust (produce more or less) and there is the po-
tential for someone to gain.
An externality is positive as long as (3) is positive and nega-
tive if (3) is negative.
                              -19-
When (3)=0 the externality is irrelevant (for public purpose).

          4.3 – When an externality is relevant?
The removal of an externality will promote losses as well as
gains.
B will no longer be in his best position. So not all potentially
relevant losses are necessary to be modified. That is, it may not
be efficient to change the existing externality. The mere exis-
tence of an externality does not necessarily imply inef-
ficiency, and hence government intervention. This leads
to a final refinement in the definition of an externality.
A Pareto relevant externality is when: “The extent of the
activity may be modified in such way that the externality af-
fected party A can be made better of without the acting party B
being worse off.”
To formalize this definition we need some statement of what
optimising behaviour B will be engaged in, in the absence of
consideration about A.
Let‟s B marginal cost of engaging in Y1, be denoted MCB . In
                                                      Y1

equilibrium any additional satisfaction will just equal the addi-
tional cost and hence:
                           MUB  MCB
                             Y1    Y1
                                                      (10)

The externality will be Pareto relevant when the gain to A
(from a change in the level of Y1) is greater than the loss to B
(who has to move from his equilibrium level Y1, thus making
the left side of (4) smaller than the right.
That is, a Pareto-relevant externality is where :



                              -20-
                    MUA  MCB  MUB 
                      Y1   Y1     Y1 
                                                      (11)

The externality is irrelevant when both sides of the expres-
sion (5) are equal.
Example.
Say there is a shoe factory that produces marginal profits
(benefits) given by the MB curve. The factory causes smoke
which lead to external costs to an adjacent laundry-given by
the MC curve.
A profit maximising factory would produce up to the point
where marginal profit are zero. Equilibrium for the factory
would therefore be at Q3. For any scale of output between 0
and Q3, an externality exists (the laundry has the interdepend-
ence). Between 0 and Q2, e.g. at Q1, there is a Pareto relevant
externality (the MB is greater than the MC). The social optimum
is at Q2, where the MB is equal to the MC. There is an external-
ity at Q2, but it is not Pareto relevant (it not possible to make
the laundry better of without making the factory worse off).
                Figure 1. Laundry versus factory




                              -21-
                     V – CONCLUSION

When observed prices reflect the societal value of goods
(i.e when markets are efficient) surplus variations are good
to measure welfare variation induced by a public pro-
ject.
When observed prices don‟t reflect the true societal value
of a good accurately (or when prices don‟t exists, i.e. Public
Goods, externality), a process called Shadow Pricing is used.
Shadow Pricing is when observed prices are adjusted (or val-
ues are assignated when observed prices don‟t exist) so that
they come as close as possible to measuring the social val-
ue of the good in question.




                             -22-
                         QUESTIONS

Question 1. Dans quelles conditions le marché n‟assure-t-il
plus une allocation optimale ?
Question 2. Deux amis achètent des billets pour aller au
concert des Rolling Stones, 100 euros le billet. Devant, l‟entrée
deux brésiliens les abordent. Ils sont venus de Rio pour le
concert, ils ont perdu les billets. Ils sont prêts a racheter aux
deux amis les billets pour la somme de 1000 euros chaque bil-
let. Les deux amis se consultent et refusent. Il n‟y a aucune
« arnaque » possible (faux billets, violence,etc.). Quel est le
coût pour chacun des deux amis d‟avoir été au concert.
Question 3. Pourquoi se fonder sur l‟analyse du surplus pour
étudier l‟efficacité d‟une politique économique ?
Question 4. Variation sur la courbe de demande et mouve-
ments de la courbe.
Question 5. Les surplus sont-ils de bons indicateurs du bien-
être ?




                              -23-
    CHAPTER VI– MARGINAL COST OF PUBLIC FUNDS


I – INTRODUCTION ...................................................... 25
II – ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO ESTIMATION OF
THE MCF ........................................................................ 26
  2.1 – TRADITIONAL APPROACH ................................................27
  2.2 – MODERN APPROACH ......................................................30
III - RECONCILING THE APPROACH ............................ 32
IV – CONCLUSION ........................................................ 33
V – QUESTIONS ............................................................. 33




                                      -24-
                    I – INTRODUCTION

In practical terms there is no way of rasing taxes that does
not affect the choices that individuals make on their re-
sources.
There is therefore an additional (excess) burden of taxes over
and above the (direct) financial burden entailed in paying the
taxes.
In the case of cigarettes, imagine a situation where a tax on
cigarette leads people to quit smoking.
There is no tax revenue, but an excess burden caused by losing
the satisfaction from consuming.


                      Graph 1. Excess burden




                             -25-
                  b


                                  D

             c                               a
                      Transfert
                                         Loss
             s

                                                 f     q
              O                          e




The excess burden from financing the project needs to be
included as a part of the CBA criterion.
“The marginal cost of public funds (MCF) is the sum of indirect
and direct cost per unit of finance required by the project”.
NSB  B  C  MCF                                          (2)
(Net Social Benefit from a government policy)

 II – ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO ESTIMATION OF
                    THE MCF

The assumption behind the traditional approach to estimate the
MCF (and how these differ from the modern approach) can be



                                  -26-
understood by working on a typical analysis of the MCF of wage
tax (Ballard and Fullerton, 1992)1.

                    2.1 – Traditional approach
Consider the choice between leisure (L) on he horizontal axis)
and earned income Y (on the vertical axis). The price (oppor-
tunity cost) of leisure is the wage w that is forgone by not
working.
The budget line at the wage w is OY1. The individual choose a
point such as A (where the budget line is tangential to the indif-
ference curve I1). At A, leisure is LA.




1
 Ballard and Fullerton, 1992 “Distortionary Taxes an the Proviision of Public
Goods” Journal of Economic Perspective, n°6, 117-131.




                                    -27-
Now impose a wage at tax rate t. The price of the leisure falls
to (1-t)w and the budget line becomes OY2.The individual
choose a point B (where the new budget line is tangential to
the lower indifference curve I2).
For simplicity of reading the diagram, B corresponds to the
same number of hours of leisure as at A. Earned I come at B,
after is LAB. Tax is collected is the vertical distance AB.
                   Graph 2. Traditional approach




                             -28-
   Income


  Y1




                              .A
                                                                                 I1

  Y2
                                           . D

  Y4                          .    B
                                           .   F                                      I2

   Y3
                                           .
                                           . C

                                             E
                                                                                                     I3


                                                                                                 G


                              LA                                                  Leisure    0

The initial equilibrium is at A. After a tax is imposed, the individual moves to B. The tax paid is AB. Then the tax is
raised further still, but return in a lump sump way as a rebate. C is the new equilibrium after the tax and the
rebate (equal to CE). The marginal excess burden (MEB) is CF, the difference between the indifference curve C
and at F (which is the utility level if a lump sum tax were used and one would have had the same level of
satisfaction at B). The MCF is the sum of the revenue change and the MEB divided by the revenue change. As the
revenue change is CEE and the MEB os CF, the MCF=(CE+CF)/CE; which is clearly greater than 1. This is the MCF
in the traditional approach.



The concept of the MCF involves a consideration of mar-
ginal increase in tax to finance increments in government
expenditure fort the public project. Let the higher wage tax be
t‟. This means that the price of leisure would fall even further to
(1-t-t‟)w and this produces the new (flattest) budget line OY3.
This is because the analysis assumes an equal yield framework.
Effectively this means that the public project is an income
transfer programme. Any additional tax revenue will be re-
turned to the private sector in a lump sum way.
The budget line where the new equilibrium will take place will
have two properties.
           (i)         It will have the same slope as OY3. This is be-
                       cause the incremental tax t‟ has been incurred and
                                                       -29-
             lump sum income changes are to take place at
             these prices.
      (ii)   (ii) It will be at a distance AB from the original
             budget line OY1, in line with the equal yield as-
             sumption.
Given the preferences of the individual, GY4 is the relevant
budget line. Equilibrium is at C (where an indifference curve I3
is tangential to GY4.) with the tax collected CD equal to AB. C is
always to the right of B because there is a substitution effect,
an income effect.
We can now make the MCF calculation.
The tax revenue collected (and returned ti the individual) is
distance CE. E is the budget line OY, vertically below C.
DE is what the total tax revenue would have been if there were
no rebate, and CD is the tax with the rebate, making the differ-
ence CE the tax rebated).
The excess burden is the distance CF. (F is on the indiffer-
ence curve I2 being the vertically above C.
If utility were held constant at the level prior to the incremental
tax (i.e at I2) and the price of leisure would have been lowered
by the tax rate t‟, then F would have been the equilibrium
point).
The MCF is therefore (CE+CF)/CE).
A value always greater than unity.

                   2.2 – Modern approach
The modern approach follows the traditional analysis up to the
point the new budget line OY3 is introduced.


                               -30-
This time the revenue from the incremental tax t‟ is used
to finance a public project that involves a transfer of re-
sources to the government. There is no lump sum rebate to
accompany the tax.
So equilibrium will take place somewhere on the budget line
OY3. Depending in the relative size of the income and substan-
tial effects, the new equilibrium would be to the left or to the
right of point B.
We will consider the situation where the income effect
outweighs the substitution effect abs people work more
due to the tax. This is the so called „back-ward-bending supply
curve‟ case. With leisure reduced, equilibrium point C is drawn
to the left of point B (where indifference curve I3 is tangential
to OY3).
The equivalent amount of tax to AB that was collected before
is given by ED. (D is the point on the original budget line 0Y 1
vertically above the new equilibrium c. E is also vertically above
C, and positioned si that the distance DE equal AB).
DE is therefore the equivalent amount of revenue that
would have been raised from tax rate t.
The total tax collected at C from t and t‟, is DC, which
makes CE (the difference between DC and DE) the tax
from the incremental tax increase t‟.
It is CE that is on the denominator of the MCF. On the nu-
merator is the total change in welfare of CF (the differ-
ence between indifference curves I2 and I3).
The resulting MCF is therefore CF/CE. As can be seen from
diagram this is ration less than 1.




                              -31-
                                        Graph 3. Modern approach

       Income


      Y1




                               D
                                   .                                                I1

      Y2
                               E   .
                                   .          .    A


                               F
                                                                                         I2

       Y4                                     .    B
                                C
                                   .                                                                  I3




                                                                                               0
                                              LA                                     Leisure
  The initial equilibrium is in A. After a tax is imposed the individual moves to B. The tax paid is AB. Then the tax is
  raised further still. C is the new equilibrium after the tax. DC is the total tax now paid. DE is the amount equal to the
  Previous tax AB. Hence CE is the additional tax raised. The welfare change is the difference between indifference
  curves I2 and I3 equal to CF (F gives the same level of utility as prior to the additional tax increases). The MCF is the
  welfare change divided by the revenue change ie. MCF=CF/CE. As drawn (i.e; for the backward-bending supply of
  Labour case), he MCF has a value less than 1. This is the modern approach.


                     III - RECONCILING THE APPROACH

It is clear from the previous two sections that the traditional
and modern approach to estimating the MCF have very differ-
ent kinds of public project in mind. The modern approach is
more appropriate for the typical type of CBA analysis that relate
to the building of bridges, highways, dam an so in while the
traditional approach has a particular relevance for transfer
payment were resources are not moving from the private ti
the public sector.
The domain of the traditional approach is wider if one interprets
programmes such as providing of public housing and food
stamps as one to one substitutes for private expenditures.
                                                          -32-
They are two mains ways of explaining the difference between
the modern and traditional approach, the tax revenue collected
is returned to the individual. This means that there is no
income effect from the tax.
The substitution effect is always negative which leads to more
leisure when its price has fallen (due to the tax increase). The
MCF always exceeds unity. However, in the modern approach
(where there is no lump sum transfer back to the individuals)
there is an income as well as the substitution effects. Leisure
may increase or decrease. When leisure decreases the MCF can
be less than 1.
The difference between the two approaches can therefore be
understood in these terms: the modern approach use the un-
compensated labour supply curve, while the traditional ap-
proach use the compensated supply curve.

                     IV – CONCLUSION

                       V – QUESTIONS

 1. Consider a single aggregate individual facing a constant
gross wage an a flat 50% tax, an a single consumption good
such that the uncompensated labour supply elasticity is zero
and the compensated labour supply is positive. Is this wage
distortionary ?
Hints. Is the compensated or the uncompensated supply elas-
ticity that cause the excess burden?
2. Is the same model, with the same assumption, suppose a
public project with production costs (MRT) of $1, and benefits
(MRs ) of slightly more than $1, could be funded by a 1% in-
crease in the wage tax. Would this be desirable?
                              -33-
Hints. Draw a diagram like the diagram of the modern ap-
proach, but this time let the income and substitution effect can-
cel out (which is what a zero uncompensated supply elasticity
involves). What is the MCF in such a diagram?




                              -34-
-35-
CHAPTER IX– SOCIAL DISCOUNT RATE ....................... 38
I – INTRODUCTION ...................................................... 38
II – HOW TO DISCOUNT ............................................... 38
  2.1 – NPV......................................................................... 39
  2.2 – INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN ........................................... 40
III - SOCIAL DISCOUNT RATE‟S DEFINITION .............. 41
  3.1 – THE MARKET OF INTEREST RATE AS SDR ............................ 41
  3.2 – ALTERNATIVE CONCEPTIONS OF THE SDR ........................... 45
IV - SOCIAL TIME PREFERENCE RATE .......................... 47
  4.1 – INDIVIDUALISTIC APPROACH ............................................ 49
  4.2 – AN AUTHORITARIAN SOCIAL TIME PREFERENCE RATE .............. 51
V – CONCLUSION .......................................................... 53
VI – EXERCISES ............................................................ 55




                                        -36-
-37-
                 CHAPTER IX– Social DISCOUNT RATE

                                      I – Introduction

Given a choice, individuals would prefer to have a unit of bene-
fits today rather than in the future.
The current resources can build new resources in the future.

                                 II – How to discount

A stream of constant future benefits (or costs) of S units from
next year (t=1) to the end of the project (t=T) can be therefore
summarized by:
             S               S                     S
PVT                                  ... 
           (1  i )       (1  i )2             (1  i )T
    t T    St
               t
                                                            (1)
    t 1 (1  i )


When a project has effects on a great number of years it is im-
portant to summarize it in the value of the present year.
Some aspects of public calculations are derived from private
calculation.
In the case of a private project, when one want to assess the
project (from a private point of view) he can use either the Net
Present Value (NPV), (VAN in French), or the Internal Rate of
Return (IRR), (TRI in French).



                                                  -38-
The main differences between private and public calcula-
tion lies in the fact that externalities are not taken in
considerations. For private calculation, NPV is calculated from
the data of the company in charge of the project.
When a public perspective is adopted, we denominate the NPV,
NPVSE (for socio economic).
IRRSE is the IRR of a public project and includes all the ex-
ternal effects.




                                      2.1 – NPV
Let‟s (b0, b1,…, bn) be the annual flows created by the project.
         n
                At            n
                                     Ct
NPV =                   -                                        (2)
                                   
                     t                    t
        t 0   1a           t 0   1a

a = Rate of discount.
Bt = At - Ct = Benefits of the projects; or cash flows (sales mi-
nus current expenses).
At = Sales or resources.
Ct = Current expenses.
A project will be retained by a private company if: NPV>0
When the initial investment is concentrated in the 0 period:
(Before the starting of the project).




                                              -39-
                                n
                                        At                n
                                                                 Ct
NPV = -        Io     +                            -                   (3)
                                                               
                                                 t                    t
                             t 1     1a                t 1   1a

A project whose NPV is positive creates enough revenues
to refund the initial investment and pay the capital at
the rate of actualisation.
A positive NPV is equal to the maximum amount that the
future revenue allowed to borrow at the starting point.
When projects are independent, the private company should
retain all those that have a positive NPV. If projects are ini-
tially exclusive, the highest NPV project should be retained.
The NPV criterion is not easy to interpret. It gives an
amount which is less clear than a percentage. The first
highly depends on the value attributed to the rate of actualisa-
tion (a). (a) is fixed by he public deciders and can be discussed.
(Lebegue (2005), Prud‟homme, Kopp (2006).

                           2.2 – Internal Rate of Return
The IRR (R) is the value of the rate of actualisation (a) which
equalizes the advantages and costs (discounted) of the
project.
      n                     n
              At                      Ct
R/                    -                            =0                   (4)
                                   
                   t                         t
     t 0   1R            t 0     1R

If the investment is concentrated in the very fiscal period t = 0:
      n                     n
              At                      Ct
R/                    -                        = I0                     (5)
            1  R                 1  R 
                   t                         t
     t 1                  t 1




                                                         -40-
IRR is the maximum rate that the project‟s revenues al-
low the capital to be rewarded.
When projects are independent, the private company will select
of those R > a.
(IRR > Discount rate).
When projects are initially exclusive, the private company will
select the highest IRR‟s project if it‟s > a .
IRR is more objective, because it‟s independent from the
publicly fixed rate of return.
IRR are comparable whereas NPV are not.
IRR is easy to interpret each percentage above the discount
rate reward capital higher than the opportunity cost.

      III - SOCIAL DISCOUNT RATE‟S DEFINITION

         3.1 – The market of interest rate as SDR
Consider a two period CBA criterion, where i is the social time
preference rate.
             NPV  CO  B / (1  i )                      (6)
If we measure effects in terms of consumption, then the in-
tertemporal choice is whether to consume an output today
or next period. This choice can be analysed using the stan-
dard Fisher diagram.
Current consumption CO is on horizontal axis and future con-
sumption is on the vertical axis.
- The production possibilities curves PP‟ shows the maxi-
mum amount of future consumption that is technologically fea-
sible by reducing current consumption. The slope of PP is 1+r,

                              -41-
where r is the marginal production of capital. r is also called
the social opportunity cost (SOCR).
- Society preferences are given by the family of social indiffer-
ence curves I, which has a slope 1+i, where i is the social
time preference rate. The STR is the rate at which society is
willing to forgo consumption today for consumption tomorrow.
- If competitive financial markets exist, the market
budget line MM‟ will go trough E1. The budget line has a slope
1+m, where m is the market rate of interest.
At the equilibrium that is for a social optimum the slope of the
social indifference curve I1 equals the slopes of the pro-
duction possibilities curves and the market budget line.
The optimum is shown at point E1. Since at E1 the two slopes
are equal, 1+i=1+r, which implies that i=m=r.
This means that all three discount are equal. It is immaterial
whether one bases discounting the STPR, the SOCR or the
market rate of interest. The market rate of interest is as con-
venient a rate to use as any other.
The situation just described is called a „first best optimum‟‟,
where the only constraints affecting welfare maximisation is
the production function (the PP‟ curve). If there exists some
additional constraints, then one is in a „second best
world‟.
In developing countries, the additional constraint is thought
to be the absence of competitive financial and produc-
tion markets.
                      Figure 1. Equilibrium




                              -42-
In developed countries capital taxes are imposed that drive
                   M        I1

        P     I0

   B1



                                     E1




                                            E0


                                                 P‟     M‟
        O
                                            CO




                           -43-
a wedge between what investor willing to pay and savers are
willing to receive. No matter the particular cause, as long as
there is an additional constraint, one must now choose
which rate to use as the SDR.
Feldstein (1977)2 estimated, for the USA, the STPR was 4%,
while the SOCR was 12%. So there is a, in practice a big dif-
ference between these two rates.
A „second best optimum‟ is depicted on the previous dia-
gram by point EO. EO corresponds to the highest indiffer-
ence curve IO that can be reached given the production
and other constraints




2
    Feldstein M. (1977) “Does the United States Save too Little?” Ameri-
can Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 67, 116-21.




                                   -44-
EO is not a tangency point to PP‟ in the second best world.
At EO the slope of the PP‟ is much greater than the slope of
the indifference curve IO. This mean that r>i.
This is typically the case, and is consistent with Feldstein esti-
mates for the United Sates.
One immediate implication of the second best situation is
that the market rate of interest m is no longer equal to either
the STPR or the SOCR.
The existence of additional constraints is therefore one rea-
son why the market rate of interest should not be used as the
SDR.
The other reason is that social indifference curves may not
be the same as individual indifference curves. The I curve
are in the diagram not necessarily based on the rate at which
individuals are willing to save. Individual‟s savings decisions
may be distorted or judged too shorted sighted.

         3.2 – Alternative conceptions of the SDR
Ignoring unrealistic fist best world, in which case the
market rate of interest is ruled out, the main choices for
the SDR reduce opting for the STPR or the SOCR, or
some combination of the two.
Of these alternatives, we will argue that the STPR is the
most appropriate basis for the SDR. To justify our selection
of the STPR, we need to explain what is wrong with the alter-
natives approaches.


The SOCR as the SDR



                              -45-
The basic weakness of the SOCR is that is the wrong concept
to use for SDR.
The idea behind the SOCR is that if the funds that are de-
voted to public project could have been earned, say, 10
per cent as a rate of return of investment in the private
sector, then the government should not use a rate less
than this.
Anything less would be depriving society of funds that
could be more productively used elsewhere. The weakness in
the argument is that, essentially, it is assumed that a fixed
budget constraint is in existence. Private funds are be-
ing squeezed out and these may be more valuable if devoted
to investment that used for current consumption. While this
may be legitimate concern, in not an SDR issue per se, which is
inherently one of valuing consumption today rather than
in the future (i.e an STPR issue).
If investment is undervalued relative to consumption,
then strictly this is a matter if determining the correct
shadow price of capital, not the SDR. The distortionary
effect of capital or income tax does not directly fix soci-
ety intertemporal consumption preferences.
In sum, if investment is undervalued for any reason, one
should incorporate a shadow price of capital, denoted MCF. The
appropriate two-period CBA criterion would be:
                                    Bi
             NPV  (MCF )C O                             (7)
                                  (1  i )
The shadow price of the capital MCF is a different concept from
the SDR i.



                             -46-
          IV - SOCIAL TIME PREFERENCE RATE

Individual living today make saving decisions concerning how
they whish to allocate their lifetime resources between today
and the future. The issue is to what extent social time
preference rates should be based on these individuals
time preference rate.
The complication is that as yet unborn individual will exist
in the future. The preferences of future generations need
to be included in a social time preference function, as well as
the preferences if those succendently living.


- Two approaches will be developed.




                             -47-
First is individualistic. The preference of the existing genera-
tion is given priority but these preferences depends on the con-
sumption of the future generations.
The second is authoritarian. The existing generation is as-
sumed to have what Pigou called a „myopic telescopic faculty‟ in
regard to looking into the future, on which case the govern-
ment needs to intercede and replace individual reference
with a distinct social perspective, which explicitly includes he
preferences of future generations.




                              -48-
                4.1 – individualistic approach
Sen (1972)3 provided a model explaining why in presence of
externalities, present individual decision might be subopti-
mum. Layard4 in 1972 developed this approach. The external-
ity arise because, the current generation does not care
about consumption by the future generations.
An individual‟s heir will be part of the future generation and
clearly this would expect to give positive benefits (through pos-
sibly not as much as individuals values his own consumption).
In addition, an individual living today may receive some (small)




3
 Sen A.K (1972) „The Social Time Preference Rate in Relation to the
Market rate of Interest‟ Chap. 10 In Layard R. (eds) „Cost Benefit
Analysis, Washington DC, Brookings?
4
 Layard R. (1972) „Cost Benefit Analysis Middlesex, (eds) Penguin
Books.




                               -49-
benefit from other people‟s heirs consuming in the future. As
consequence; we can assume that each individual in society
make the following valuation of one unit of consumption ac-
cording to whom consume it. That is, the individual values one
unit of consumption that he receives as worth 1 unit and values
the consumption by others as some fraction fi of a unit, de-
pending on whether that other peson is living today, n heir or a
person living today, or the individual‟s own heir.




The individual values one unit of consumption:
             Figure 2. Value of unit of consumption
                                        Person/ Groups
              1                    Consumption individual now
              f1                 Consumption by individual‟s heir
              f2                   Consumption by other now
              f3                   Consumption by other‟s heir
Assume that one unit of consumption saved by the present
generation leads to m units extra consumption by the
next. M is the market return in saving. Let individuals own heir
receive (1-t) of the return, where t is the intergenerational tax
rate (say, death duty or estate tax).
This means that the individuals get‟s (1-t)m from the until
saved, and the heirs of other individuals obtain the tax (via
transfer) from the return equal to tm. An optimal saving plan
requires that the individual save until the extra benefit equals

                              -50-
the cost (the unit of consumption forgone). The value to the
gain by the individuals own heir id f1(1-t)m and the value to the
gain by the heirs of others id f3tm. The extra benefit is the sum
of of the two gains, i.e f1(1-t)m+f3tm. Equating the marginal
benefit to 1 (the unit of cost) and solving for m produces;
                                     1
                        m                                (8)
                             (1  t )  (t )f 3

The previous equation is the free market solution.
Now we determine the on saving if individuals were to be in-
volved in a (voluntary) collective agreement. (to be continued)

    4.2 – An authoritarian social time preference rate
The issue is to allow for the preference of unborn generation.
One approach is to use the preferences of the existing genera-
tion to represent the future. Usually, one can assume that indi-
viduals are the best judges of their own welfare. But Pigou has
argued that; for intertemporal choices, the individual suffers
myopia. That is, the individual has a „defective telescopic fac-
ulty‟ causing future effects to be given little weight. There are
three reasons why the individuals is claimed to be myopic.
Individuals may be thought irrationals. Irrationality in the
context of saving decision may occur because individuals might
not have sufficient experience in making such choice. Unlike
intertemporal choices (buying bread and milk), saving decision
are not made every day. Without making such choice repeat-
edly, it is difficult to learn from one‟s mistakes.


Individuals do not have sufficient information. To make
sensible intertemporal choice, one needs to compare lifetime

                              -51-
income with lifetime consumption. Most people are not able to
predict with any precision what their life time is going to be.
Individuals die, even though societies do not. If an indi-
vidual f does not expect to live in the future the saving for he
future will not take place. The individuals survival probability
would provide the lower bound for an individualistic SDR (called
the pure preference rate) but it may be ignored if society
wishes that every generation‟s consumption be given equal
value.
The myopia has caused many authors to consider an authori-
tarian SDR.
The starting point is the value judgement that society
should be responsible for future generations as well as
those currently existing. (Equal consideration does not
however imply equal generational weights).
There are two aspects to consider.
Firstly, over time economic growth take place, which means
that future generation can be expected to be richer (con-
sume more) that the current generation.
Secondly, as assumed, going at the same point in time, there is
a diminishing marginal social value of increase in con-
sumption. The additional income going to those in the future
should be valued less that the additional income going to cur-
rent generation.
These two aspects can be combined in the following manner.
The following equation defines the SDR i.

                  o   1
                 a  a a  Y  Y
             i 
                         1  1   o   
                                                          (9)
                 
                 Y  Y Y  Y
                 1    oo    o
                                        
                                        


                              -52-
The first bracketed term defines the elasticity of the so-
cial marginal utility if income (the percentage change in the
weight divided by the percentage change in income) which
have been denoted in a previous chapter by  .
The second bracketed term is the growth rate of income
over generation. Call this growth rate g. The determination of i
can therefore appears as
                          i  g                     (10)


Equation (10) shows that the two considerations can simply be
multiplied to obtain the SDR. For example, if  =2, with the
growth rate of income of 2%, the SDR is 4%.

                       V – Conclusion

The size of the SDR is a prime political concern. The largest
the discount rate, the fewer public investment projects
that should be passed. Hence the smaller would be the public
sector relative to the private sector.
Given that the SOCR is expected to be higher that the STPR,
one should not be surprised than those who favour limiting
the size of the public sector would be those who advo-
cate the SOCR.
However our advocacy of the STPR was not on political
grounds. We tried to argue that the STPR was conceptually
correct to use for discounting purpose in the second
best world.
The obvious rate to use as a SDR is the market rate of inter-
est. But is not correct when constraint other than production

                              -53-
exist. This rate is also problematical when one questions the
ability of individuals to make intertemporal decisions.
Moreover, the individual rates would need to be repacked if
one considered that myopia was a factor when the individuals
look into the future to assess benefits. This leads to the idea
that a socially determined rate may be more appropriate
than individual rate for social decision-making purpose.
The STPR rate that is most often used in CBA recognizes that
future generations are likely to be richer than current genera-
tions. A premium would be then given to the consumption of
the current generation. The size of the premium would depend
on how much richer would be the future generation which de-
pends of the growth rate and how important we value in-
come inequality (as reflected by the elasticity if the social
marginal utility of income).




                             -54-
                        VI – EXERCISES

Question 1. Quinze ans auparavant, vous        étiez le gouverneur
du Massachusetts. Vous deviez décider s‟il     fallait supporter un
projet de construction d‟un pont et d‟une       autoroute surnom-
mé « Big Dig ». La durée nécessaire à la       construction de ce
projet est estimée à 7 ans.
Le coût des matériaux de construction qu‟implique ce projet est
de 45 million $ par an. Celui de la main d‟œuvre est estimé à
20 million $ par an.
Par ailleurs, le projet implique une interruption de la circulation
intra urbaine durant toute la construction. Cette interruption
accroît de 30 heures par an le temps de transport de 100 000
travailleurs. Tous les travailleurs sont rémunérés 15$ de l‟heure
(on fait l‟hypothèse qu‟il n‟existe aucunes distorsions, et que le
salaire reflète la valeur qu‟un travailleur attribue à son loisir).
Le projet « Big Dig » a pour objet de faciliter la circulation intra
urbaine. Il réduira de 35 heures par an le temps de transport
des travailleurs, en comparaison avec celui pré existait avant le
lancement du projet.
De plus, une partie de ce projet implique la destruction d‟une
autoroute surélevée et son remplacement par un parc public.
L‟état du Massachussetts a estimé que chaque travailleur valori-
sait le parc à 40$ par an. On fait l‟hypothèse que seuls les tra-
vailleurs utiliseront ce parc. On suppose également que le gou-
vernement bénéficie d‟un taux d‟escompte de 5%, et que les
travailleurs sont immortels.
Le projet débute en année 0, il dégagera des bénéfices au dé-
but de l‟année 7 (c'est-à-dire que le projet s‟étale sur 7 ans, de
t = 0 à t = 6).

                               -55-
En tant que gouverneur, devez vous approuver la construction
de ce projet ? Utilisez l‟analyse coût bénéfice.
Après avoir effectué l‟ensemble des calculs en question a), vous
réalisez que les coûts estimés peuvent être incertains. Le coût
des matériaux de constructions est estimé à 45 million $ avec
50% d‟incertitude et à 100 millions $ avec 50% d‟incertitude.
En supposant que l‟aversion au risque du gouvernement est
nulle, le projet doit-il être réalisé ?
Question 2. In this (Greece) country, a large river is presently
crossed by a service of ferries that goes from the city of R., on
one side, to the city of A., on the other side. 70% of ferry tick-
ets price is subsidised by public funds.
It takes about 45 minutes to board the ferry, to cross the river,
and to unboard. A survey has showed that the average occupa-
tion rate of cars is 2.5, that of buses 33, and that of motorbikes
1.5.
It is proposed to replace the ferry service by a bridge. You will
prepare a cost-benefit analysis for this project.
The building of the bridge, planned to begin in 1998, is ex-
pected to last for 5 years. The total construction cost (taxes not
included) is estimated to be $135,600 at 1995 prices and is dis-
tributed evenly year by year during five years (1998-2002). The
bridge is expected to be open in January 2003. Yearly costs of
maintenance, beginning in 2003, are estimated to be 1% of
construction cost.
When the bridge is opened the ferry line will be closed.
The bridge will be a toll bridge. The amount of the toll will be
higher than the ferry fee, but lower than the generalized cost of
using the ferry. This generalized cost includes the ferry fee and
the time cost of utilizing the ferry. This is why the replacement

                              -56-
of the ferry with the bridge is expected to lead to an increase in
traffic. Projections of the traffic in 2010 with and without the
bridge have been prepared.
Studies on the value of time in this country in 1995 and in 1995
$, suggest 1500 $ per hour for passengers, and 6000 $ per
hour for trucks.
Table 1 - Basic Values of the Parameters needed for the Analy-
                               sis
                             Cars  Trucks Buses Motorcycles
Time saved (minutes)          45     45    45       45
Coefficient of utilization    2.5     -    33      1.5
Value of time ($./h)        1,500 6,000 1,500     1,500
Ferry fares ($.)            1,187 4,800 4,000     0,180
Bridge toll ($.)            1,543 6,960 6,000     0,270
Traffic (1,000)1993          1675   472    113      97
Traffic 2010 without bridge 3790,8 950,4 211,2    188,4
Traffic 2010 with bridge    4135,2 1129 230,4     217,2
You are expected to calculate an internal rate of return of the
project from the beginning of construction in 1998 to the end of
year 2010 with these hypotheses. It also might be useful to
undertake sensitivity analysis by utilizing higher (by 20%) and
lower (by 20%) values of time, and also higher (by 20%) and
lower (by 20%) traffic forecasts.




                              -57-

				
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