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									    Khamenei’s                 The Kiss of Judas             The Neverending
  Uncertain Future             Anwar Al-Awlaki American
                                Born, Radical Cleric and          Story
       Karim Sadjadpour            Terrorist Recruiter             John Cooke




                                                           How
                                                   Al-Qaeda
                                                Turned Algerian
                                                                  By
                                                           Jean Pierre Filiu




Issues 1543, 29 January 2010
                                                      Editorial                                                  Cartoon




                                                                            Cover




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              Editor-in-Chief
              ADEL Al TORAIFI
                                                   Dear Readers,


           Managing Director                       W brings to The Majalla Digital, al Qaeda’sour issue
                                                     elcome to
                                                               you an analysis of
                                                                                    this week
                                                                                                role in
               TARIK ALGAIN                        Algeria. Professor Jean Pierre Filiu’s feature draws from
                                                   Algerian history to explain how al Qaeda’s infiltration in
                                                   the country grew and stymied between the 1990s until
                                                   today.

                                                   To complement this article, we have also invited Karim
                 Published by                      Sadjapour, associate at the Carnegie Endowment for
                                                   International Peace, to examine the uncertain fate of
                                                   Khamenei in Iran. After suffering damage to his reputation,
                                                   his vast network remains intact for the moment, although
                                                   his future rests largely in the hands of the revolutionary
                                                   guards.

                                                   We invite you to read these articles and much more on
                                                   our website at Majalla.com As always, we welcome and
                                                   value our readers’ feedback and we invite you to take the
                                                   opportunity to leave your comments or contact us if you are
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                                                                                                                 Issues 1543   05
Contents                                                      33   33 People
                                                                   Profile
                                                                   The Kiss of Judas - Anwar Al-Awlaki
                                                                                                                                  Issue 1543,
08 Geopolitics                                                                                                                  29 January 2010


Khamenei’s Uncertain Future
                                                                   37 Economics                                                    Submissions
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                                                                   Arab Economics
11 In Brief
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Around The World                                                   The Neverending Story
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Magazine Round Up
Letters


18 Features                                                        45 Reviews
How Al-Qaeda Turned                                                Books
Algerian                                                           A Sense of History
                                                                   Readings                                                      Mr. Wael Al Fayez


25 Debate
                                                                                                                            w.alfayez@alkhaleejiah.com
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                                                                   Judgement Day                                                 F.: 0096614400996
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28 Ideas                                                  28       52 The Political Essay
                                                                   Mixed Signals
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                        29 January, 2010   06   Issues 1543                                                                                                             07
   Geopolitics                                                                                                                    Geopolitics



Khamenei’s Uncertain Future
                                                                                                                                 more of an effort to change the             afforded to his predecessor, Ayatollah   revolting against the Shah is never
                                                                                                                                 tone and context of the U.S.-Iran           Khomeini. His chief rival Rafsanjani,    to compromise under pressure. For
                                                                                                                                 relationship more than any American         publicly humiliated as a corrupt         when the Shah attempted to mollify
                                                                                                                                 president since 1979.                       traitor by Ahmadinejad, waits in the     demonstrators when he went on state
A lonelier road for Iran’s Supreme Leader                                                                                          In addition to numerous rhetorical
                                                                                                                                                                             wings for an opportunity to pounce.
                                                                                                                                                                             In a nation whose largest political
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      television in late 1978 and admitted
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      to past transgressions—famously
While before the presidential elections it appeared that Khamenei would remain Supreme Leader for life, his fate is              overtures to the “Islamic Republic          affiliation is jokingly referred to as   declaring that he’d “heard the voice”
far less certain today, and he is openly defied by reformist leaders, faces dissent from top ayatollahs, and is contested        of Iran”—the first U.S. president           the hezb-e baad, i.e. the wind party,    of the revolution—he unwittingly
in public demonstrations. Despite the damage to his reputation, Khamenei’s vast and potent network remains for the
                                                                                                                                 to     acknowledge      Iran’s   post       Khamenei’s current supporters could      emboldened them.
moment intact, and his future rests largely in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards.
                                                                                                                                 revolutionary name—Obama sent               quickly abandon ranks if they felt

A     mong the numerous casualties
      of    Iran’s     tainted
      presidential elections was
                                   2009
                                                                                      with billions of dollars in assets—
                                                                                      in addition to the millions more his
                                                                                      office receives in charitable donations
                                                                                                                                 two private letters to Khamenei
                                                                                                                                 reiterating Washington’s desire to
                                                                                                                                 overcome past mistrust and build
                                                                                                                                                                             stronger political winds blowing
                                                                                                                                                                             elsewhere.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         What’s more, whereas much of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      the Shah’s political, military, and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      intelligence elite—including the
the legitimacy of Supreme Leader                                                      offered to Iran’s holy shrines.            confidence with Tehran. Obama also               Still, no matter the depth of       Shah himself—were educated in
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While                                                                                                    trod carefully during Iran’s post-          popular discontent and outrage,          the United States and Europe and
for two decades Khamenei had                                                             Given his deep mistrust of both         election uprising, resisting calls to       it’s difficult to imagine a scenario     had other options when the Pahlavi
attempted to cultivate an image of                                                    foreign powers and his own                 support the opposition.                     whereby Khamenei would one day           monarchy began to crumble, the
an impartial and magnanimous guide                                                    population, Khamenei, despite his                                                      peacefully abdicate power or go          Islamic Republic’s elite—including
staying above the political fray, his               Karim Sadjadpour                  clerical garb, has grown to rely on the       Yet Khamenei’s responses to U.S.         into exile, as the Shah did three        Khamenei himself—spent their
defiant public support for hardline                                                   support of the intelligence, security,     overtures have been at best non-            decades ago. Indeed, one important       formative years in the seminaries of
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—            late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri,             and military apparatus far more than       committal, if not downright cynical.        lesson that Khamenei learned while       Qom and on the battlefield against
amidst massive popular uprisings and      Iran’s most senior cleric and once          the clergy. As commander in chief          In his public messages he has mocked                                                 Iraq. Lacking options abroad, it’s
unprecedented fissures amongst the        the heir apparent to Ayatollah              of the Revolutionary Guards, he            Obama’s mantra of change as merely                                                   always been assumed they won’t
country’s political elites—exposed        Khomeini, denounced Khamenei                handpicks the organization’s senior        a tactical shift, saying Washington                                                  relinquish power without a bloody
him as a petty, partisan autocrat.        as an “unqualified and illegitimate”        command and shuffles them regularly,       must first change its actions—by                                                     fight.
                                          leader. Abdul Karim Soroush,                overseeing their rapid rise to become      lifting sanctions, unfreezing Iranian
     At a popular level, previously       Iran’s most prominent religious             Iran’s most powerful political and         assets, diluting support for Israel,                                                     Khamenei’s Iran is no longer
sacred taboos were shattered, as          intellectual (currently in exile),          economic institution.                      and ceasing criticism of Iran—to                                                     an Islamic Republic, but a tight-
hundreds of thousands of Iranians         lambasted Khamenei as a “cheating,                                                     show its seriousness. In his private                                                 knit cartel of hardline clergymen
defied Khamenei’s unveiled threats        treacherous murderer…cursed with               With the seemingly firm support         communications U.S. officials claim                                                  and nouvea ruiche Revolutionary
against protestors by taking to           doom.” Unprecedented dissent even           of the country’s security apparatus,       that Khamenei’s delayed response to                                                  Guardsmen. Indeed, despite his
the streets chanting “death to            came from within the Assembly of            Khamenei has refused to cede any           President Obama’s letter, received                                                   pretensions as a religious leader,
the dictator” and even “death to          Experts, the 86-cleric body that has        political ground since the election,       one month later, offered “nothing                                                    today Khamenei’s future rests largely
Khamenei.” Widely seen images             the constitutional authority to anoint      long believing that compromise             concrete to act upon”.                                                               in the hands of the Revolutionary
of government-sanctioned brutality        and remove the Supreme Leader               projects weakness and invites further                                                                                           Guards. While growing fissures and
against civilians—such as the             and is headed by Khamenei’s rival           pressure. His defiance is not cost free,     Behind closed doors, senior Iranian                                                dissent among top ayatollahs in Qom
horrific murder of 27-year-old Neda       Hashemi Rafsanjani.                         however. For the last two decades,         officials concede that Obama’s                                                       is certainly worrisome for Khamenei,
agha Soltan—as well as persistent                                                     his modus operandi had been to wield       overtures have been unsettling for                                                   dissent and fissures among top
allegations of torture, rape, and               Despite the damage to his             power without accountability. Despite      Khamenei, putting pressure on him to                                                 Revolutionary Guard commanders
forced confessions in prison have         reputation, Khamenei’s vast and             enjoying the lion’s share of Iran’s        justify Tehran’s continued animosity                                                 would be fatal for him. Though at the
undermined Khamenei’s image as a          potent network remains for the              constitutional authority, because          toward the United States. “If we                                                     moment they seemingly remain loyal
“just” spiritual leader among Iran’s      moment intact. The country’s                of the high profile of the Iranian         can’t make nice with Barack Hussein                                                  to him, as the economic situation
pious classes. Widespread allegations     most powerful institutions—the              president both at home and abroad,         Obama,” said one Iranian official,                                                   continues to deteriorate and popular
of the growing role of his son Mojtaba,   Revolutionary Guards, presidency,           Khamenei has never borne proper            “who is preaching mutual respect                                                     outrage persists, Khamenei himself
considered a key Ahmadinejad ally,        Parliament, Guardian Council, and           responsibility for Iran’s economic         on a weekly basis and sending us                                                     must know that his position as
in Iran’s repressive security apparatus   judiciary—continue to be led by             malaise, political repression, and         noerooz greetings, it’s going to be                                                  Supreme Leader looks less supreme
have further tarnished Khamenei’s         individuals either directly appointed       social restrictions. After the June        pretty obvious that the problem lies                                                 than ever before.
public image.                             by Khamenei or deeply loyal to him.         elections, however, Khamenei no            in Tehran, not Washington.”
                                          Khamenei also retains enormous              longer enjoys this immunity.
  At a political level, once respectful   influence over the Iranian economy.                                                         While before the presidential                                                   Associate at the Carnegie
subordinates—including reformist                                                        In addition to his domestic travails,    elections it appeared that Khamenei                                                  Endowment for International
leaders Mohammed Khatami, Mehdi             He has more say than anyone how           Khamenei is facing unprecedented           would remain Supreme Leader for                                                      Peace. Regular contributor
Karroubi, and Mir Hossein Mousavi—        the country’s vast oil revenue (nearly      international scrutiny. While during       life, his fate is far less certain today.                                            to BBC World TV and Radio
now openly defy Khamenei, refusing        $300 billion during Ahmadinejad’s           the Bush administration much of the        Aside from nagging questions about                                                   and CNN. Has written for the
to renounce claims of electoral fraud     first term) is spent and has jurisdiction   international community criticized         his allegedly poor health, Khamenei                                                  Economist, Washington Post, New
and brutality. Previously restrained      over the country’s bonyads—state-           Washington for not engaging Tehran,        has never commanded the same                                                         York Times, and International
critics have turned vociferous. The       controlled religious foundations              Barack Obama has arguably made           loyalty and respect of his peers                                                     Herald Tribune

                   29 January, 2010                                                                                         08    Issues 1543                                                                                                         09
In Brief
  Around The World        Quotes Of The Week        Magazine Round Up           Letters




© GETTY IMAGES




Rational Fears
   Tensions on the Lebanese –         mobilizing their ranks to a state of   government headed by Netanyahu
Israeli scene have escalated          "full alert" in case of any sudden     and Lieberman. According to a
following the recent Israeli army     Israeli operation aimed at the party   report on Israel Radio, a senior
military exercises on the northern    headquarters and other positions.      official in the Israeli army has
border, giving rise to speculations   Syria is reported to have called up    denied any intention of a military
concerning a military strike          their reserve troops and declared      targeting of Lebanon.
on Lebanon in the near future,        a state of preparedness in its army.
despite French assurances to                                                    Saad Hariri, the Lebanese
the Lebanese government to the           With Hezbollah's commitment         Prime Minister, met several days
contrary.                             not to launch any missiles or          ago with Nicolas Sarkozy, the
                                      military operations against Israel     French President, and received
   Driving these concerns is          since the end of the July 2006         assurances that Paris will work
information received by Lebanon       war, Israel has no reason to           on preventing Israel from striking
that Tel Aviv is preparing for        justify launching a strike against     the infrastructure in Lebanon.
military action against Lebanese      Lebanon. But political analysts        Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and
territory, including an increase in   do not rule out the possibility        other Arab countries have been
training conducted by the Israeli     that Israel might wage a war           trying to convince the U.S.
army on the northern border           on Hezbollah considering that          administration to pressure Israel
adjacent to Lebanon. Hezbollah        it is currently under the rule of      not to take any military action
have responded to the exercises       an Israeli extreme right-wing          against Lebanon.

  Issues 1543                                                                                                 11
  In Brief - Around The World                                                                                         In Brief - Around The World


Around The World                                                                                                                                                                              8 France
                                                                                                                                                                                              French lawmakers recommended
                                                                                                                                                                                              a partial ban on any veils that
                                                                                                                                                       1                                      cover the face, including the
                                                                                                                                                                                              burqa, the full-body covering
                                                                                                                                                                                              worn      by     some     Muslim
                                                                                                           2                                                                                  women. According to a French
                                                                                                               8
                                                                                                                                                                                              parliamentary commission, the
                                                                                                                                                                      7                       ban would apply in public places
                                                                                                                                   9    10                                                    like hospitals and schools, and on
                                                                                                                               6
                                                                                                                                                                                              public transport.


                                                                                       4                                                                                                      9 Jordan
                                                                                                               5                                  3
                                                                                                                                                                                              Jordan's King Abdullah II urged
                                                                                                                                                                                              US President Barack Obama to
                                                                                                                                                                                              intensify efforts for achieving
                                   3 Sri Lanka                                                                                                                                                tangible progress towards the
                                                                                                                                                                                              two-state solution to the Israeli-
                                   Sri Lanka elected President                                                                                                                                Palestinian conflict. The monarch
                                   Mahinda Rajapaksa to a second                                                                                                                              made the remark during a
                                   term in the country's first                                                                                                                                telephone conversation which was
                                   peacetime presidential election                                                                                                                            initiated by Obama, according to
                                   in more than two decades                                                                                                                                   a royal court statement.
                                   according to state television.
                                   Rajapaksa's opponent, Gen.
                                   Sarath Fonseka, did not
                                   immediately concede defeat
1 Russia                           and accused the incumbent of
                                   intimidation.Official   results
Talks between U.S. and             however indicat that Rajapaksa
Russian diplomats over a           has garnered more than 50
new arms control treaty were       percent of the vote needed to
resumed in Switzerland. U.S.       avoid a runoff.
President    Barack     Obama
and his Russian counterpart
Dmitry Medvedev indicated          4 Venezuela
last week that the new treaty
was nearly agreed upon and         Protests over media freedom
could be finalized within a few    continued in Venezuela a day
weeks.                             after two student protesters
                                   were killed in separate clashes.
                                                                                                                                                           7 North Korea                      10 Afghanistan
                                   Student leaders opposed to         5 Nigeria                                    6 Israel
2 United Kingdom                   cable operators' decision to
                                                                                                                                                           North Korea has fired artillery
                                                                                                                                                           shots near the disputed sea
                                                                                                                                                                                              The United Nations has removed
                                   drop five television channels,                                                  Israeli prime minister has taken                                           five former Afghan Taliban
                                                                      US Secretary of State Hillary
The UK economy finally             including     an     opposition    Clinton has blamed failings by               part in tree-planting ceremonies        border with South Korea and        officials from its sanctions list
returned to growth in the fourth   station, for failure to follow     Nigerian leaders for increasing              in the West Bank while declaring        the South has returned fire. The   which was imposed because of
quarter of last year, after the    broadcast laws pleaded for         "radicalization" among young                 Israel will never leave those           North fired shells into the sea    alleged links to al-Qaeda. The
deepest recession since records    an end to the violence at a        Nigerians. She pointed to                    areas. Benjamin Netanyahu said          near Baengnyeong Island off        UN said the five would no longer
began more than half a century     demonstration in front of the      poor living standards and                    the Jewish settlements blocs            the the South's western coast,     be subject to international travel
ago, but at a far weaker rate      state-run broadcaster. The         "unbelievable" corruption. Mrs.              would always remain part of the         South Korean news agency
                                                                                                                   state of Israel. His remarks came                                          bans and a freeze on their assets.
than expected. The economy         Interior Ministry designated       Clinton made this announcement                                                       Yonhap said. North Korea said
grew by 0.1 percent in the         four investigators to look into    after a young Nigerian man from              hours after a visit by US envoy                                            Separately, German Chancellor
final three months of the year,    the shooting deaths of the two     a wealthy family was accused of              George Mitchell who is trying to        the firing was part of an annual   Angela Merkel said a fixed date
as both the service sector and     students in the western state of   trying to blow up a plane over the           reopen peace talks between Israel       military drill, adding that it     to pull troops from Afghanistan
manufacturing saw output rise.     Merida.                            US on Christmas Day                          and Palestinians.                       would continue.                    would be a mistake.

                29 January, 2010                                                                      12             Issues 1543                                                                                               13
In Brief - Quotes Of The Week                                             Magazine Round Up

                                                                                                       2
Quotes                                                         Magazine
                                                                                                                                        2 Time
                                                                                                                                        When Economic Indicators
                                                                                                                                        aren't worth that much
Of The Week                                                    Round Up                                                                 Justin Fox argues that the recent economic depression might
                                                                                                                                        have caused people to ignore that the world is changing, and
                                                                                                                                        that economic indicators might not be as accurate as perceived.
                                                                                                                                        Economic indicators to Fox are but a way to explain and increase
                         "There is no blueprint that can                                                                                one's understanding of the economy, yet they may not be of much
                        get the political processes moving                                                                              help when it comes to forecasting Economic future. Consequently,
                                     forward"                                                                                           Fox refutes the advice that believes in "focusing on the trends and
                         Palestinian President, Mahmoud                                                                                 ignoring the noise", since when trends reverse, the context of the
                          Abbas, referring to the progress                                                                              economy takes precedence.
                         of the Middle East peace process.
                                                                                         1
                                                                                                       3 Foreign Affairs
                                                                                                       Not so Dire Straits
                                                                                                       This essay in the current issue of Foreign Affairs argues whether
                               "In order to continue                                                   or not the American government should continue supporting
                             dialogue, no one should be                                                Taiwan in its faceoff with China given the new political situation.
                                     isolated"                                                         China and Taiwan have been walking down intersecting
                          Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei                                             economic and political paths, increasing the bond between the
                              Lavarov reiterating on the                                               two nations. This novel relationship presents a challenge to the
                                                                                                       American ambitions of balancing the Chinese influence in the
                           importance involving all parties
                          in the Middle East peace process
                                                                                                       region.
                                                                                                                                                                                                           3
                                    negotiations.
                                                                                                                                        4 The New Republic
                                                                                                                                        Turf Warrior
                                                               1 Newsweek                                                               The recent terrorism attempt against an American flight has caused
                          "What we want above all is a                                                                                  public opinion upheaval against American security measures
                        commitment on the development          The Fight Over "Allah"                                                   generally and intelligence in particular. This article studies the
                        and the building of our capacities                                                                              possibilities of saving the American faltering intelligence, that has
                                                               This article tackles Malaysia's                                          been in worsening condition under Dennis Blair's administration.
                             against radicalization"           steady rising racial and religious                                       The article further discusses the context in which admiral Blair
                          Yemen's foreign minister, Abu        consciousness among Muslim Malays.                                       became the director of the American national intelligence and
                        Bakr al-Qirbi, stating his country's   The interethnic chaos in Malaysia is                                     the variables that have lead to the widening of the rifts in the
                         intentions prior to the meeting in    getting closer to becoming a reality                                     government.
                                                               fortifying the fears of Malays, since
                                                                                                       4
                        London to discuss the rising threat
                              of al-Qaeda in Yemen.            this month 10 churches were attacked                                                                                   Cover Of The Week
                                                               around the country following a
                                                               civil-court ruling on New Year's
                                                               Eve declaring that a law prohibiting
                          "As with all aspects of the fight    non-Muslims from using the word         Cover of the Week
                            against terrorism, this new        "Allah" to describe their God was
                          threat can be met only through
                              enhanced cooperation"
                                                               unconstitutional. This brings up a
                                                               controversy, since Christian Malays
                                                                                                       The New Yorker
                                                                                                       A Little While
                           Gordon Brown highlighting the       have long used the same word to         Edwige Danticat in this issue of the New Yorker magnificently
                            danger posed by terrorism in       describe god. Hence, the sudden spark   delivers the story of her deceased cousin who used to live in
                         Yemen, which might pave the road      of religious animosity in the country   Haiti. Danticat decorates the story with the consequence of
                               to the rise of al-Qaeda         that has been known for religious       events prior to and after the quakes in Haitit, demonstrating
                                                               tolerance is under Question.            not only a the dire humanitarian situation, but also a

             29 January, 2010                                                                    14        Issues 1543                                                                                          15
 In Brief - Letters                                                                                                      In Brief - Magazine Round Up


                                                                     LAST ISSUE

Letters




                                             Rigging The Game
                                             It is great thing that the national companies tries to benefit to great
                                             extent from its resources but I think they would face a lot of obstacles
Teaching                                     from the international companies which would ask their countries to
                                             interfere by any means
an Old Dog                                   Mohamed Alkalany

New Tricks
Lebanon is now at a period of stability,     Signals from the Royal Court
especially under wise management,            King abd allah is very moderate and talented king , where he knew that
headed by Saad Hariri, and is expected       the only way to make his country go forward takes place by getting
to continue this period for a long time ..   rid of extreme thoughts and he is trying to get rid of this thoughts by
samer khayat                                 teaching his people the right thoughts .

New Lebanese Prime Minister Saad             Magid mohamadie
Hariri is still trying to find a safe and
correct path for the country among           It is good news that Saudi Arabia's s current ruler will soften religious
various political and religious currents     restrictions in the kingdom and will introduce new legislations to give
which only care for their political gains.   women their rights among other examples.

Salim Al-Mutairi                             Radwa Zidan

                 29 January, 2010                                                                                  16    Issues 1543                    15
    Features




                                                       How
                                                       Al-Qaeda Turned Algerian
                                                                                By
                                                                  Jean Pierre Filiu
© GETTY IMAGES


                 29 January, 2010   18
                                    18   Issues 1543                             19
   Features                                                                                                                        Features
                                                                                                                                the security forces with bricks           the jihadi cells launched violent       victory over the jihadi insurgency

How Al-Qaeda Turned Algerian
                                                                                                                                and slingshots, they challenged           attacks on civil servants and secular   before the end of his four-year term
                                                                                                                                the one-party system of the               intellectuals.    They     eventually   and he decided to step down from
                                                                                                                                National Liberation Front (FLN),          coalesced in October 1992 into the      the presidency. The tremendous
                                                                                                                                they denounced the widespread             Islamic Armed Group (GIA), while        toll of the civil war was estimated
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb                                                                                                 corruption and the economic fiasco,       the FIS established its own military    between one hundred and two
Jean Pierre Filiu                                                                                                               despite all the oil wealth. But this      wing, the Islamic Army of Salvation     hundred thousand persons killed,
                                                                                                                                social intifada was crushed without       (AIS). Osama Bin Laden had then         but the human cost of the conflict
Drawing from Algeria’s history, Filiu explains how Al-Qaeda’s infiltration in the country grew and stymied                      mercy and hundreds of rioters were        been expelled from Saudi Arabia         was aggravated by the massive exile
between the 90’s until today.                                                                                                   killed. The FLN monopoly was              and, from his new base in Sudan, he     of part of the French-speaking urban
                                                                                                                                however obsolete and other parties        was beefing up Al-Qaeda all over the    class, who fled the jihadi terror
                                                                                                                                had to be legalized, including the        Muslim world. But his openings to the   overseas, as far as Canada.
                                                                                                                                Islamic Front of Salvation (FIS), a       GIA were not reciprocated, because
                                                                                                                                coalition of the different shades of      even the die-hard jihadis refused any        Zeroual’s successor in April
                                                                                                                                political Islam. The FIS considered       non-Algerian interference into their    1999 was Abdelaziz Bouteflika,
                                                                                                                                Algeria to be still “colonized”,          fight against the Algerian regime.      minister of Foreign affairs during
                                                                                                                                at least culturally, and pledged to       The GIA became also engulfed in         the seventies, the “golden age” of
                                                                                                                                restore the “Islamic identity” of the     a bloody spiral of massacres, first     the FLN rule. But Bouteflika ran
                                                                                                                                country by fighting the “party of         against pro-government localities,      as an “independent” candidate and
                                                                                                                                France” (hizb Fransa), namely the         then against rival FIS strongholds,     reaped three-quarters of the vote
                                                                                                                                secular, progressive and French-          ultimately against dissident jihadi     (his challengers had withdrawn in
                                                                                                                                speaking elite.                           groups.                                 protest against a “set-up” election).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  He pledged to devote most of the
                                                                                                                                      The FIS was betting on the               Confusion also prevailed on        oil revenues to healing the open
                                                                                                                                dynamics of democratization to            the side of the regime, where one       wounds of the civil war. His “law
                                                                                                                                achieve its Islamist goals and this       of the FLN founding members,            of civil reconciliation” was widely
                                                                                                                                gamble on “political jihad” gained        Mohammed Boudiaf, was brought           endorsed because a majority of the
                                                                                                                                momentum after the landslide FIS          back from his exile in Morocco to       Algerian population wanted, more
                                                                                                                                victory at the municipal elections        be the new head of state. But he        than anything else, to close the
                                                                                                                                of April 1990. But a vocal minority       was killed by his own bodyguard in      chapter of the “black decade”.
                                                                                                                                was calling for “military jihad”          June 1992, in murky circumstances.
                                                                                                                                against the “infidels” and they           So Algeria came to be ruled by a           This open-hand policy towards
                                                                                                                                paraded some of their militants           collective leadership, out of which     repentant jihadis who laid down
                                                                                                                                in “Afghan” attire (kohl-lined            General Liamine Zeroual emerged         their weapons came along with
                                                                                                                                eyes, henna-tainted beard, sharwal        as the strongest man.                   increased military pressure on
                                                                                                                                and kamis), presenting them as                                                    the defiant groups. The decline
                                                                                                               © GETTY IMAGES   veterans of the anti-Soviet war in             In November 1995, the first        of the GIA appeared irreversible
                                                                                                                                Afghanistan. On the side of the           multi-party presidential elections      and its Saharan branch switched

O n the the center of Algiers was
  2007,
         morning of April 11,            petty delinquent radicalized by a
                                         charismatic imam, a teenager from
                                                                                   of civil reconciliation” that was
                                                                                   massively approved by referendum.
                                                                                                                                regime, President Chadli Bendjedid
                                                                                                                                was genuine in his commitment
                                                                                                                                                                          gave 61% of the votes to Zeroual,
                                                                                                                                                                          while a non-FIS Islamist challenger
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  to the GSPC, becoming the last
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  jihadi organization to challenge the
shaken by a devastating blast, when      the populous outskirts of Algiers,        Six years later, President Bouteflika        to political liberalization, but the      reached 25%. Zeroual had then the       Algerian state. Hattab was obsessed
a suicide-car exploded in front of       who died under the war moniker of         had expanded his initiative through          military nomenklatura, widely             legitimacy and the clout to push        by the preservation of his outfit
the Government palace. At the same       Moaz Bin Jabal.                           a “Charter for peace and national            described as the “decision-makers”        for negotiations with the FIS and       and he kept a low-profile on the
moment, two other terror attacks                                                   reconciliation”, also endorsed by            (décideurs) by the Algerian public,       to stop the now full-fledged civil      international arena, while focusing
occurred in the eastern suburbs of         The shock for the Algerian society      referendum. Now jihadi terror was,           became increasingly wary of the           war. In September 1997, the FIS         his attacks on the security forces.
the capital city, hitting two security   was terrible. Even at the climax of       under the banner of Al-Qaeda,                Islamist rising tide. FIS won the first   proclaimed a cease-fire, while the      But he found troubles trying to rein
stations. The casualty toll quickly      the political violence, during the        striking Algiers again.                      round of the legislative elections        GIA, increasingly isolated, became      the GSPC commandos in Southern
reached 30, with hundreds more           “black decade” of the nineties,                                                        in December 1991 but, before the          even more violent, with a horrifying    Algeria, they kept roaming in the
injured. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic         suicide-attacks had been unknown            To understand this whole process,          second round could take place, the        string of mass slaughters. One          Saharan desert, from Mauritania to
Maghreb claimed responsibility           (the only exception was probably the      one has to move back in Algeria’s            Army leadership deposed President         of the GIA commanders, Hassan           Mali, and even Tunisia or Libya.
for the slaughter and pledged to         result of a mistake, with the terrorist   recent history, to October 1988              Bendjedid, put him under house            Hattab, condemned the blood-shed        Their smuggling of drugs, weapons
“liberate the land of Islam” from        exploding unexpectedly with the           when social riots flared in the capital      arrest and “suspended” the electoral      and led an offshoot faction, called     and illegal immigrants was quite
the “crusaders” and their “apostate”     bomb he was carrying). The horrors        city. It was then that the young             process.                                  the Salafist Group for Preaching        profitable, but their abduction of
allies. A jihadi website broadcast       of the civil war with the Islamist        and disenfranchised protesters                    Security forces rounded up           and Combat (GSPC), in September         Western tourists proved even more
the pictures of the three kamikazes,     guerrillas were supposed to be buried     were emulating the Palestinian               thousands of FIS militants and            1998.                                   lucrative.
the only one to show his face was        in the past and President Abdelaziz       “stones revolution” against the              followers, while the “Afghan”
identified as Marwan Boudina, a          Bouteflika, had conceived a “law          Israeli occupation: they provoked            networks went underground and                General Zeroual could claim            Hattab’s prestige as GSPC leader

                   29 January, 2010                                                                                      20        Issues 1543                                                                                                      21
   Features                                                                                                                                           Features

was tarnished by the defiant stand of                                                                                                                                                                                                          mixed, with Mauritanian, Malian,
his Saharan subordinates, but also                                                                                                                                                                                                             Libyan or even Chadian members.
by the criticism of younger militants,                                                                                                                                                                                                         Despite the superficial religious
Nabil Sahrawi and Abdelmalik                                                                                                                                                                                                                   rhetoric, the main activity of these
Drukdal, who were fascinated by                                                                                                                                                                                                                highly-mobile commandos is illegal
Al-Qaeda. In August 2003, Hattab                                                                                                                                                                                                               smuggling, with occasional hit-
was forced to step down in favor of                                                                                                                                                                                                            and-run operations against the local
Sahrawi, who was killed later in a                                                                                                                                                                                                             security forces. The abduction of
security ambush, leaving Drukdal as                                                                                                                                                                                                            Western nationals became highly
the undisputed leader of the GSPC.                                                                                                                                                                                                             profitable, not only for the Saharan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               branch, but for AQIM as a whole.
   Bin Laden, after years of being                                                                                                                                                                                                             There was only one case when a
rebuffed by xenophobic jihadis in                                                                                                                                                                                                              British tourist was executed in May
Algeria, had finally found potential                                                                                                                                                                                                           2009, under direct pressure from Al-
partners. But Drukdal’s role model                                                                                                                                                                                                             Qaeda’s top leadership, who wanted
was less Al-Qaeda’s founder than                                                                                                                                                                                                               to “retaliate” against the “Crusaders’
was Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, the                          Algerian rescue workers search through the rubble of destroyed buildings                                                                                                                crimes”.
                                                              near the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) offices
leader of its Iraqi branch. Drukdal                                                                                                                                   Algerian High State Council President Mohamed Boudiaf
even chose a war moniker echoing                                                                                              © GETTY IMAGES                                                                                  © GETTY IMAGES      In Algiers, President Bouteflika
Zarqawi’s, Abu Musab Abdel Wadud                                                                                                                                                                                                               felt confident enough to have
(both nicknames refer to Musab Bin                                                                                                                                                                                                             the Constitution amended by a
Umayr, who died as a martyr during                                                                                                                                                                                                             parliamentary vote, in December
the battle of Uhud in 625). Between                                                                                                                                                                                                            2008, thus allowing him to run for
the Eastern and the Western Abu                                                                                                                                                                                                                a third term. He was re-elected in
Musab, cooperation increased, even                                                                                                                                                                                                             April 2009 with 90% of the votes
though they never met face to face.                                                                                                                                                                                                            and, despite the low turnout and the
The GSPC became the regional hub                                                                                                                                                                                                               heated controversy, he claimed his
for Al-Qaeda in Iraq, channeling                                                                                                                                                                                                               popular support was unprecedented.
volunteers from all over North                                                                                                                                                                                                                 The jihadi threat, so spectacular in
Africa to join the “blessed jihad”                                                                                                                                                                                                             2007, appears now marginal in the
against the US occupation. Zarqawi                                                                                                                                                                                                             public debate but, even on the sides,
reciprocated by abducting and                                                                                                                                                                                                                  AQIM shadow remains nefarious.
executing two Algerian diplomats
in Baghdad, in July 2005. The US                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Algeria has been a reliable player
command considered that one-                                                                                                                                                                                                                   in the US-inspired “global war
quarter of the kamikazes in Iraq                                                                                                                                                                                                               on terror” and has joined the US-
in 2005 came from North Africa,                                                                                                                                                                                                                sponsored Trans-Saharan Counter-
mainly through the GSPC.                                                 Algerian President Liamine Zeroual                                                                           Ali Hussain Kafi                                         Terrorism Partnership (TSCTP).
                                                                                                                              © GETTY IMAGES                                                                                  © GETTY IMAGES   Nevertheless, Algiers obviously
  Drukdal then decided to apply for                                                                                                                                                                                                            prefers regional cooperation with
                                         Bin Laden in September 2006 and                    order to launch a colossal program                      crisis of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, where the         attract and recruit new members.             its Southern neighbors without
a formal merger with Al-Qaeda.
                                         GSPC officially turned into “Al-                   of public infrastructures across                        nationalist insurgency turned against                                                      Western interference. And Algerian
He was looking for enhanced
                                         Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb”                      Algeria. He felt his capital and his                    Bin Laden’s followers. Drukdal                  Drukdal was then forced to rely            diplomacy pushes for an international
international visibility through the
                                         (AQIM) in January 2007. The triple                 international status were being                         could no longer plug his network into         much more on its Saharan branch,             commitment to ban any payment
Al-Qaeda inspired websites, but he
                                         suicide bombing in Algiers in April                challenged. So the security apparatus                   this pool of potential militants, and         run from Southern Algeria by one             of ransoms to terrorist groups. To
was also hoping to deflect the impact
                                         stunned both society and regime.                   went back on the offensive and                          he was also frustrated in his efforts         of his most loyal commanders,                promote such a collective discipline,
of the “national reconciliation”
                                         But the worst was yet to come: on                  mopped up isolated jihadi cells in                      to integrate jihadi groups from               Yahya Djouadi. But the two major             it argues that AQIM depends heavily
among his own followers. Even
                                         December 11, 2007, there were                      2008, thus containing AQIM into the                     Morocco and Tunisia. So AQIM                  military units (katiba), even though         on the abduction of Western nationals
Hattab, the GSPC’s founder, had
                                         two simultaneous attacks struck the                ominous “death triangle” (the three                     failed to live up to its commitment to        they have safe havens on Algerian            to finance its overall networks. After
answered positively to President
                                         Constitutional Court and the UN                    provinces of Boumerdes, Bouira and                      expand the GSPC into the “Islamic             soil, are focused on neighboring             the “black decade” of the nineties,
Bouteflika’s call to end the violence.
                                         regional headquarters.                             Tizi Ouzou, where Drukdal and his                       Maghreb” and it was also frustrated           countries, Mauritania for Mokhtar            and the somehow “gray” start of
So Drukdal went global to escape
                                                                                            associates are based, east of Algiers).                 in its repeated attempts to export its        Belmokhtar’s katiba, and Mali for            this millennium, when Al-Qaeda
this political trap where all jihadi
groups were falling one after the            President Bouteflika had been                                                                          terror North of the Mediterranean:            Abu Zeid’s.                                  managed to incorporate the Algerian
other.                                   reelected in April 2004 with 85%                       The dynamics of recruitment                         European security services were on                                                         GSPC, the next years will tell us if
                                         of the votes and he had earmarked a                induced by the anti-US jihad in                         the alert and actively cooperating              All these leaders are Algerian, but        Algeria can finally turn the page of
  He pledged public allegiance to        significant part of the oil bonanza, in            the Middle East collapsed with the                      against AQIM that tried in vain to            their rank and file is increasingly          this political violence.


                   29 January, 2010                                                                                                            22     Issues 1543                                                                                                                 23
Debate
Al Qaeda in Algeria
Does al Qaeda still have a strong
presence in Algeria?
 For some time, Algeria, and the Islamic Maghreb more generally, saw a surge in the occurrence of terror
attacks. The presence of al Qaeda in Algeria, and its attempts at making the country another stronghold
in the region, prompted the Algerian government to undertake counterterrorist measures to confront this
threat. While the presidency of Boutaflika has been praised for its success in reacting to the emerging
presence of al Qaeda in the country, the question of whether the terrorist group continues to have a presence
in Algeria remains a subject of debate.




© GETTY IMAGES




  Issues 1543                                                                                             25
  Debate                                                                                                                Debate


Algeria's Al-Qaeda                                                                                                    The End of Armed Violence
From the idea of jihad to banditry
The evolution of the tactics of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, can be explained as reactions to
various tactics the government has put in place to discredit the organization and encourage the
                                                                                                                      Al Qaeda in Algeria: A mirage or a reality?
disarmament of combatants.                                                                                            The era of al-Qaeda in the Maghreb, particularly in Algeria seems to be over and The bombings
                                           Mahmoud Al-Naggar                                                          that the country witnesses from time to time are no more than individual activities rather than
                                                                                                                      organized operations. The same bombings happen in many other countries because of high rates of


A
                                                                                                                      unemployment, poverty and absence of the state's role.
      l Qaeda’s base in the Islam-     ingly unpopular in the eyes of the      These laws have caused many
      ic Magreb begun its armed        public. This caused the organisa-     terrorist to abandon armed ac-
      activities in the area under     tion's leaders to resort to other     tivity. Those repentant members                                                      Khaled Ben Quqa
the name the Salafist Group for        methods in their confrontation        have reached more than 3,000


                                                                                                                      T
Preaching and Combat. It was           with the state.                       until now. This was a severe blow
founded by the organization's                                                for all armed organizations, but                 he case of Algeria dis-          Although analysts believe that    incidences have nothing to do
Emir, Hassan Hattab, in the mid                                              most of all for the Salafist Group               proved the popular per-        al-Qaeda may return to Alge-        with al-Qaeda. Rather they are
1990s after he defected from the                                             for Preaching and Combat.                        ception that terrorism         ria as it managed to in Yemen,      a means individuals rely on to
Armed Islamic Group, or the
                                       The organization                                                               was impossible to combat. On           there is no concrete evidence to    demonstrate their dislike of cer-
GIA.                                     continued their                        The isolation of the organiza-        the contrary, Algeria succeeded        support this assumption. On the     tain policies. Yet, the Western
                                                                             tion increased after the army in-        in ending the violence, thanks to      other hand, one should take into    media has played a role in in-
  Under Hattab, the organization         terrorist opera-                    tensified its strikes. Moreover,         the rigidity of both society and       account that there are important    flating the subject and involving
undertook terrorist operations,                                              Algeria, the Mediterranean coast         the government. Strangely, how-        differences between Algeria and     al-Qaeda so as to create a state
planting bombs and explosive            tions against ci-                    and African Sahara countries             ever, there are still many accu-       Yemen with regards to their vul-    of panic amongst the Algerian
devices in public places. It was          vilians and the                    have increased their security co-
also under his leadership that                                               ordination, prompting the organi-        sations that al-Qaeda has strong       nerability to organized terrorist   people.
they were able to concentrate          military, they grew                   zation to alter its style to fight the   presence in the country.               groups. Most notably, al-Qaeda’s
their activities in the major cit-                                           government.                                                                     power in Algeria was never as         Some people may think that ac-
ies of the country, including the       increasingly un-                                                               The presence of al-Qaeda in the       great as it was in Yemen.           cusing the Salafist Group of the
capital of Algiers. The also at-          popular in the                        The organization of the Salaf-        early 2000s was strongly associ-                                           bombings that continue to occur
tacked the National Gendarmerie                                              ist Group for Preaching and              ated to the fact many Algerians                                            in Algeria is evidence that these
and the municipal guard. Having        eyes of the public                    Combat began to use suicide              sympathized with its policies. It        The presence of                   acts are related to al-Qaeda's
very little control over the situa-                                          bombers immediately after they           was felt then by the Algerians                                             presence in the country. How-
tion, the activities of the Salafist                                         joined the international al Qaeda        that their attack on 9/11 for ex-
                                                                                                                                                               al-Qaeda in the                   ever, when we track the develop-
Group for Preaching and Combat           In this second phase the organi-    organization early in 2007. It was
have become a great embarrass-         zation made increased efforts to      then that they began to call them-
                                                                                                                      ample was a retaliation against          early 2000s was                   ment of events in Algeria well, it
ment to the Algerian state.            avoid killing civilians. This situ-   selves "Al Qaeda in the Islamic          unjust American policies—es-                                               is evident that the Salafist Group
                                                                                                                      pecially in Palestine. However,          strongly associ-                  now plays a very limited role
                                       ation continued until the presi-      Maghreb" under the command
  This trend continued until Pres-     dential elections fought by Presi-    of Abdul Malik Drukdal, or Abu           the popularity of al-Qaeda soon          ated to the fact                  in the violence that erupts from
ident Abdel Aziz Boutaflika as-        dent Boutaflika for a second time     Musab Abdul Wadud.                       declined in the eyes of Algerians,                                         time to time. Perhaps this group
sumed power in 1999. Upon his          in the spring of 2004.                                                         when the organization’s tactics          many Algerians                    is trying to challenge the govern-
inauguration, he issued the civil                                              Since then, the organization has       started to take civilians in Algeria    sympathized with                   ment's policy in one way or an-
accord in an attempt to contain          Once Boutaflika began his sec-      carried out a series of very large       as victims.                                                                other, but the fact is that Algeria
the situation and open the way for     ond term, he presented what was       operations, including the bomb-                                                      its policies                   will not change its tried-and-true
armed groups to be reintegrated        called the Charter for Peace and      ing of the government palace on            The reconciliation initiative put                                        approach towards terrorism. A
into society. This law brought         National Reconciliation, which        11 April 2007, and the bombing
great results, as more than 6,000      was put to public referendum                                                   into place by President Boutef-          The era of al-Qaeda in the        culture of peace and security has
                                                                             of the United Nations headquar-          lika, however, completed the           Maghreb is over. The bombings       been adopted by the Algerian
members of the Salafist Group          and the people endorsed it over-
                                                                             ters in the district of Hydra in the     process of eradicating the group       that the country witnesses from     people and there is no room in
for Preaching and Combat laid          whelmingly on September 29,
down their arms and renounced          2005. The charter opened the          centre of the capital on 11 De-          from the country. The kind of re-      time to time are no more than       the country for violent intruders,
extremist beliefs.                     door to amnesty for the armed         cember 2007.                             sistance it encouraged nationally      individual activities. The same     be it al-Qaeda or other militant
                                       militants who renounce armed                                                   was necessary for protecting and       bombings happen in many other       groups
  As the remainder of the orga-        action, provided they were not        Journalist specialized in Maghreb        securing Algeria, as well as the       countries because of high rates
nization continued their terrorist     involved in genocides or plant-       affairs and former head of the           Maghreb region in addition to          of unemployment, poverty and
operations against civilians and       ing explosives in public places or    Middle East News Agency Office in        Europe and the US.                     a lack of state presence. These     Algerian Journalist
the military, they grew increas-       committed crimes of rape.             Algeria

                  29 January, 2010                                                                              26      Issues 1543                                                                                              27
Ideas




                                                       A Sorry
                                                       State of Affairs
                                                               By Paula Mejia
© GETTY IMAGES


                 29 January, 2010   28   Issues 1543                        29
   Ideas                                                                                                                                      Ideas

                                                                                                                                           of ensuring the stability of Sudan. The         programs in civic education are necessary      the time. This pressure, and the resources


A Sorry State of Affairs
                                                                                                                                           challenges that Sudan is now confronting        for ensuring that civilians have an accurate   that accompany it, is needed to reinforce
                                                                                                                                           speak to an important lesson about peace-       idea of their options. Furthermore, the        the measures the CPA recommended.
                                                                                                                                           building processes. Looking back at the         case of many administrative posts having
                                                                                                                                           grievances that motivated the civil war         important links to militarized groups is        Unfortunately, many have noted how the
                                                                                                                                           in the first place, we see the political        one important example of the ways in           crisis in Darfur, which coincided with the
The Democratic Path for Stability in Sudan                                                                                                 disenfranchisement of communities as            which the local parties have come short on     signing of the agreement, drained many
                                                                                                                                           one of the preconditions for the conflict.      their commitment to promoting stability.       of the diplomatic resources in place.
Paula Mejia                                                                                                                                Years later, the level of distrust that                                                        Although this is an understandably difficult
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement which ended the civil war in the Sudan is at a crossroads. The                                           pervades Sudanese politics, especially            If these conditions were not enough, the     obstacle to overcome, it is insufficient to
elections that the agreement guaranteed are an opportunity to create necessary stability, especially                                       between the SPLM and the NCP, has only          SPLM has shocked many in renouncing            legitimately excuse the commitment of
since a referendum on the future of the southern autonomous region is due to take place soon after.                                        made legitimate elections more important        its idea of promoting what The Economist       the international community. If only for
However, the present conditions suggest that the elections scheduled for April are unlikely to begin                                       for the CPA’s measures to stand a chance        called ‘a genuinely national electoral         selfish interests, various countries should
the type of institution building necessary for a reconciliation.                                                                           at promoting peace.                             strategy.’ With the expectation that Omar      be committed to instilling stability in
                                                                                                                                                                                           Bashir of the NCP will be re-elected, many     Sudan. The US has admirably recognized
                                                                                                                                              However, observers have repeatedly           doubt that the SPLM will even submit           this problem, and as of October 2009
                                                                                                                                           noted that the prospects for a free, fair and   a candidate. This is considered a lost         announced a new policy that balances
                                                                                                                                           peaceful election are bleak. The United         opportunity for the many ethnic groups         the need to end violence with the need to
                                                                                                                                           States has expressed concern about a            that have been politically marginalized by     support the CPA.
                                                                                                                                           recent surge in flow of arms into semi-         the NCP, and saw the SPLM as a means
                                                                                                                                           autonomous southern Sudan, including            to reverse the state of affairs. Instead,         As usual, American engagement is
                                                                                                                                           heavy weapons. Recent reports by                it appears the SPLM is relying on the          insufficient, and the US government
                                                                                                                                           Oxfam and Human Rights Watch have               referendum and hoping that a secession         should be cautious in how its relationship
                                                                                                                                           also confirmed that the Sudan is raft with      will guarantee them the power that this        with Sudan affects its internal politics.
                                                                                                                                           insecurity. Human Rights Watch, for one,        election is unlikely to provide.               Since much of Sudan’s future will continue
                                                                                                                                           has warned that repression of political                                                        to be decided by high level politicians,
                                                                                                                                           opponents in both Sudan's North and               But what about Omar Bashir? The blame        Edward Thomas argues that the politics
                                                                                                                                           semi-autonomous South has been blatant,         game would be incomplete without a             of exclusion that undermine its stability
                                                                                                                                           with both sides targeting the opposition.       serious discussion of how Sudan, and           could be worsened if the country looks
                                                                                                                                                                                           the international community, could             to engage more with international powers
                                                                                                                                             In a moment of unfortunate irony, Edward
                                                                                                                                                                                           allow a man indicted by the International      than with its own population. In this case,
                                                                                                                                           Thomas of Chatham House observes that
                                                                                                                                                                                           Criminal Court (ICC) on accounts of war        regional actors including the AU can
                                                                                                                                           processes intended to help Sudanese
                                                                                                                                           people ‘now run the risk of perpetuating        crimes and crimes against humanity to          support Sudan as it meets the upcoming
                                                                                                                                           violence…’ The elections present an             be re-elected. If the main purpose of the      deadlines of the CPA. Most importantly,
                                                                                                                                           important crossroads in Sudan’s history as      CPA is to allow democratic institutions to     these bodies can promote the type of local
                                                                                                                                           any perception of their illegitimacy may        instil a process of reconciliation between     and national dialogue that will undermine
                                                                                                                                           set a negative tone for the referendum on       the various groups that have been at war       the current tension in Sudan.
                                                                                                                                           secession. Moreover, as Tomas notes in          in Sudan, then allowing Omar Bashir,
                                                                                                                                           his recent report Decisions and Deadlines:      accused of trying to eradicate non-Arab          Finally, there is hope that the two parties
                                                                                                                                           A Critical Year for Sudan, while the            tribes from Darfur, to lead the country        can come to an agreement which will
                                                                                                                                           SPLM originally favoured rejecting the          is contrary to the principles behind the       promote a peaceful transition, no matter
                                                                                                                                           secession, ‘the widespread Southern             CPA. However, the ICC’s involvement            the outcome of the elections. For example,
                                            Sudanese men hold up a poster picturing Sudan People's Liberation Movement
                                                                                                                                           perception that the central government                                                         an oil deal that equally supports both the
                                                presidential candidate Yasir Arman with the slogan 'The new Sudan'                                                                         in Sudan’s peace-building efforts has
                                                                                                                                           has failed to take the opportunity to                                                          North and South has been described as an
                                                                                                                                                                                           been framed by the North as just another
                                                                                                                         © GETTY IMAGES
                                                                                                                                           transform itself has strengthened the hand
                                                                                                                                                                                           neo-colonial ploy. Realistically, the strong   important mechanism to create incentives
                                                                                                                                           of SPLM leadership favouring secession.’

A fter decades the civil war, Sudan
                                                                                                                                                                                           hold of power held by Bashir’s NCP is          for reconciliation. It is possible that in the
               of                          Not only was the CPA to ensure the                elections, and the unfortunate decision       Surely this negative perception of the
                                                                                                                                           government by the South would not               likely to shelter him, for the time being,     moths to come, shared interests such as
  was given          opportunity to        election of government officials at all           that the elections will now focus on
implement transformative measures          levels, these elections were to be a small        the presidency instead of the entire          benefit from a messy electoral process,         from accountability over the genocide in       these can undermine the mistrust that has
that would address the underlying          step towards the referendum that would            administrative body. Originally meant to      and the chances of repeating the same           Darfur.                                        characterized the relationship of the two
grievances behind the conflict. The        allow the South to choose between                 be held before the end of July 2009, they     mistakes at the time of the referendum                                                         parties.
Comprehensive Peace Agreement              remaining a part of Sudan, or seceding            are now scheduled for April, after being      could turn into a casus bellicus.                Although some would call the prospects
(CPA) that was signed in 2005              and creating their own independent state.         postponed three times.                                                                        of the CPA hopeless, there are still              The future of the CPA hangs in the
between the Sudan People’s Liberation      While the CPA has been commended on                                                               Pointing fingers is an inconclusive game      avenues which can be pursued that              balance as the April elections approach.
Movement (SPLM) of the South, and          its ability to bring an end to the civil war,       The clear inability of the government,      in this situation, as both parties have         might reinforce the agreement. For the         However, all is not lost, and both national
the government’s National Congress         it has come up short on many, if not most         and the international community, to           neglected important processes to promote        international community, theirs is an          and international actors should play
Party (NCP), was meant to provide the      of its promises.                                  meet the deadlines that were set by the       the credibility of the electoral process.       opportunity to demonstrate the endurance       their part in ensuring that the building
Sudanese with a promise that has been                                                        CPA have rendered the constitution of         Both parties have reportedly neglected          of their commitment. The CPA was               of democratic institutions creates the
left unfulfilled since the colonial era:    Most notably amongst its short-comings           the country threadbare to say the least,      engagement with their constituents. In          implemented largely because of the             foundations for reconciliation in this war-
the promise of self-determination.         have been the repeated delays of the              and seriously undermined the possibility      a country with a high rate of illiteracy,       international pressure that Sudan faced at     torn country.


                    29 January, 2010                                                                                                  30      Issues 1543                                                                                                                            31
        People




                      The Kiss
                      of Judas
                      Anwar Al-Awlaki American
                       Born, Radical Cleric and
                             Terrorist Recruiter
     © GETTY IMAGES


36     Issues 1543                            33
    People - Profile                                                                                                           People - Profile

                                                                                                                            English-speaking Muslims. How and           the ummah to help them with men and        Mr. Awlaki sheds light on an important

The Kiss of Judas                                                                                                           why this Yemeni-American came to
                                                                                                                            support fundamentalist movements
                                                                                                                            is unclear. It appears as though,
                                                                                                                            despite what were described as
                                                                                                                                                                        money.’

                                                                                                                                                                          Al-Shabaab, however, is not his only
                                                                                                                                                                        link with an organized terrorist group.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   issue. His case and that of his disciples,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   so to speak, provide interesting insight
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   into the processes that might lead
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   individuals to become radicalized.
Anwar Al-Awlaki American Born, Radical Cleric and Terrorist Recruiter                                                       neutral sermons whilst an Imam in           Al-Qaeda’s increasing influence in
                                                                                                                            the US, he already had ties to terrorist    Yemen, has also brought these two            A perfect example of this case is
Al-Awlaki has gained increasing attention from the media and authorities for his links to various                           organizations.                              together. It has been reported that        the course of events that linked Mr.
terrorist attacks in the UK, US and Canada. This American born cleric is now the English voice for                                                                      Mr. Awlaki has provided al-Qaeda           Awlaki with the shootings in Fort
Jihadi propaganda.                                                                                                             It was in 2002, however, in the          members in Yemen with the protection       Hood last year. In July, Mr. Awlaki
                                                                                                                            aftermath of 9/11, that Al-Awlaki           of his powerful tribe, the Awlakis,        posted an attack on his web site
                                                                                                                            left the US for the UK, citing a            against the government.                    denouncing Muslim soldiers who
                                                                                                                            climate of fear and intimidation. After                                                would fight against other Muslims.
                                                                                                                            spending several months in Britain          Yet, despite his significant involvement   ‘A Muslim soldier who follows orders
                                                                                                                            he returned to Yemen with his wife          with terrorist organizations, the major    to kill Muslims is a heartless beast,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   bent of evil, who sells his religion for
                                                                                                                            and five children, where he taught at       concern that he seems to be instilling
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   a few dollars.’ After the shootings he
                                                                                                                            Imam University. His involvement            is with regards to his powers of           called Major Hasan a hero. It does
                                                                                                                            with Imam University was also               persuasion. According to the New           not take much effort to see that his
                                                                                                                            controversial, if not only for only it      York Times, experts believe that his       condemnations implied that Muslims
                                                                                                                            being headed by Al-Zindin, branded          persuasive endorsement of violence         who were not pro-actively fighting
                                                                                                                            a terrorist by the US and the UN, but       as a religious duty, ‘in colloquial,       against American efforts in the War on
                                                                                                                            also because it is believed that most       American-accented         English    has   Terror, were bad Muslims.
                                                                                                                            of the school’s courses are based on        helped push a series of Western
                                                                                                                            radical Islamic beliefs.                    Muslims into terrorism.’                      By simplifying the teachings of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   the Koran into a simple “if you are
                                                                                                                              What is clear in the evolution of                                                    not with us you are against us,” Mr.
                                                                                                                            Al-Awlaki’s path to radicalization is                                                  Awlaki tapped into an important weak
                                                                                                                            that since his move to Yemen, he has
                                                                                                                                                                            By simplifying                         spot in American policy. The story of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mr. Awlaki and Major Hassan indicate
                                                                                                                            become more overt in his criticisms of        the teachings of                         that the US is facing a similar problem
                                                                                                                            the West and his support for violence.                                                 at home as it is abroad. A major flaw
                                                                                                                            This has been partly associated to            the Koran into a                         in their efforts up until recently has
                                                                                                                            the 18 months he spent in a Yemeni                                                     been the failure to win “the hearts
                                                                                                                            Prison.
                                                                                                                                                                         simple “if you are                        and minds” of those being affected
                                                                                                                                                                        not with us you are                        by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   The same can be said of the lesser
                                                                                                                                On August 31, Al-Awlaki was                                                        integrated Muslim Americans. Keenly
                                                                                                                            arrested by Yemeni authorities on             against us,” Mr.                         aware of this issue, Al-Awlaki has
                                                                                                                            charges of kidnapping a teenager for        Awlaki tapped into                         been successful in recruiting an often


I
                                                                                                                            ransom and being involved in an Al-                                                    ignored demographic.
      n various terrorism cases in the   New Mexico in 1971 while his father,    of just another American of foreign        Qaeda plot to kidnap a US military          an important weak
                                                                                                                            attaché. Al-Awlaki, on the other hand,                                                   This group might feel a conflict with
      US, Britain and Canada, suspects   Nasser Al-Awlaki, was completing        descent, who kept strong ties to his
                                                                                                                            has blamed the US for pressuring
                                                                                                                                                                         spot in American                          regards to their duties as a Muslim,
have claimed a devotion to Anwar         his master’s degree in Agricultural     country of origin but also excelled                                                                                               and their status as Americans. If not
Al-Awlaki— an eloquent Muslim            Economics at New Mexico State           within American institutions. After        Yemeni authorities to arrest him. After            policy.                             well integrated into American society,
cleric based in Yemen. Mr. Awlaki        University. His family returned to      all, hyphenated American identities        18 months in prison, having been
                                                                                                                            interrogated by the FBI for his links                                                  it is easy to see why Al-Awlaki has
has gained much attention, for his       Yemen in 1978, where Nasser Al-         are rather common in the “melting pot                                                                                             been able to win over impressionable
involvement with terrorists including    Awlaki would serve as Agricultural      nation” and most Americans are able        to terrorist groups, and especially his
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   and confused American Muslims
Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the           Minister and President of Sanaa         to reconcile their multiple cultures.      knowledge of 9/11, Al-Awlaki was               ‘Al-Awlaki condenses the Al-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   with the accusations that they are not
Nigerian responsible for the bombing     University. Anwar would remain in                                                  finally released.                           Qaeda philosophy into digestible,          fulfilling their religious duties. How
attempt of an airplane headed to         Yemen for 11 years.                       However, that appears to have just                                                   well-written treatises,’ said Evan         to avoid the radicalization of these
Detroit and three 9/11 hijackers.                                                been a façade, for it was during his          But as his influence over terrorists     Kohlamnn,      a     counterterrorism      “miss-integrated” foreigners is an
However, Mr. Awlaki has also gained         In 1991, however, Al-Awlaki          return to the US, whilst pursuing          like Major Nidal Malik Hassan,              researcher. His fluency in English,        important question that the American
much attention for the way in which      returned to the US for his graduate     graduate studies, that Mr. Awlaki first    and most recently Umar Farouk               his unabashed advocacy of jihad and        government should address as a means
he indoctrinated these individuals—      studies, receiving an MA in Education   come into contact with three of the 9/11   Abdulmutallab, it has become clear          mujahideen organizations, and his          to combating Mr. Awlaki’s influence.
relying primarily on the web as a tool   Leadership from San Diego State         hijackers. It was also during his time     that he understands his responsibility      Web-savvy approach are a powerful
for radicalization.                      University and a PhD in Human           in San Diego that Al-Awlaki served         of Jihad as that of a recruiter and         combination.                                 As for Awlaki himself, the Yemeni
                                         Resource Development at George          as Vice President of the Charitable        supporter.                                                                             government has been attempting to
   Adding another, although not          Washington University. During his       Society for Social Welfare (CSSW)                                                        Although his website has been taken      trace him since his disappearance in
uncommon, twist to the story, Anwar      studies, Anwar continued to remain      which was later confirmed to be a            In line with this beleif, last year Mr.   down, there is still growing concern       March 2009. He was believed to be
Al-Awlaki is an American citizen.        involved in the Islamic community,      front organization to funnel money to      Awlaki exchanged public letters on          over the influence of his Facebook         hiding in Yemen’s Shabwa or Mareb
Al-Awlaki represents a growing trend     working as an Imam at Rabat Mosque      terrorists by FBI agent Brian Murphey      the web with Al Shabaab, a Somali           page, and other publications including     regions, but sources believed him dead
in terrorist actions affecting the US,   in San Diego, and at Dar Al Higrah      during a 2004 terrorism trial.             an Islamist terrorist organization          a text entitled “44 Ways to support        as a result of an air strike by Yemeni
where the majority of threats are        Islamic Center in Verginia.                                                        which has attracted recruits among          Jihad.”                                    Air force against an Al-Qaeda meeting
originating internally.                                                            Anwar Al-Awlaki’s links to terrorist     young Somali-Americans. He told                                                        on December 24, 2009. These claims,
                                          Looked at superficially, Anwar Al-     organizations have since grown             his audience ‘their success depends on        But beyond his ability to persuade       however, have been largely refuted
Al-Awlaki was born in Las Cruces,        Awlaki’s biography appears to be that   alongside his popularity amongst           your support. It is the responsibility of   individuals to join the jihadi cause,      and the search for him continues.

                  29 January, 2010                                                                                     34                                                                                                                                  35
    Economics
         Arab Economics   International Investor   Markets




                                                             Thanks
                                                             But No Thanks!
                                                                  By Andrés Cala
© GETTY IMAGES


  Issues 1543                                                                 37
   Economics - Arab Economics                                                                                                              Economics - Arab Economics



Thanks, But No Thanks!
                                                                                                                                       years to rival the world’s biggest          a shaky regulatory framework,             punished by their managements'
                                                                                                                                       producer Saudi Arabia. And that is a        corruption, and the unattractive terms    decision to stay away, signaling
                                                                                                                                       shy estimate, considering the untapped      offered by Baghdad in the form            shareholders support for being hard
                                                                                                                                       resources.                                  of service contract, rather than the      bargainers. Fiscally speaking, U.S.
                                                                                                                                                                                   preferred production sharing deals. But   companies would have also faces
U.S. oil firms shun Iraqi spoils of war                                                                                                  The poor American showing was a           those factors applied to all, including   bigger liabilities, thus requiring
Andrés Cala                                                                                                                            strategic decision. Some account this       all those publically-traded companies     better returns than its European and
                                                                                                                                       merely to the higher risk appetite of       that came out winners.                    Asian peers.
The end result of the Iraqi oil auctions was unforeseeable a few years ago. While European, Asian and even                             Asian or state-owned companies. But a
African companies rushed to guarantee a share of the cake, American companies did not bother to bid for the                            closer look reveals that the big winners       Yes, American companies have             It could be US companies prefer a
bounty.                                                                                                                                                                                                                      backdoor entry, letting bid winners
                                                                                                                                       were European and publically traded         higher risk aversion. But it is
                                                                                                                                       companies from throughout the world         also true that they simply use            deal with all the initial headaches and
                                                                                                                                       that are bound by the same market           classic exploration and production        upfront risks to later buy themselves
                                                                                                                                       logic that American IOCs adhere to.         economic models. In Iraq’s case, low      into a minority stake. After all, service
                                                                                                                                                                                   remuneration and instability together     contracts allow companies to opt-
                                                                                                                                         Take a look at the big four super giant   made the deals unattractive. BP, for      out easily, as opposed to production
                                                                                                                                       fields that were awarded: Majnoon with      example, will barely get a 20 percent     sharing ones that require longer-term
                                                                                                                                       12.6 billion barrels in proven reserves     return on investment from its deal,       commitments.
                                                                                                                                       went to Royal Dutch Shell, Europe’s         while American companies usually
                                                                                                                                       biggest publically traded company, with     target at least a 25 percent return.          American IOCs prefer waiting
                                                                                                                                       a 45 percent stake and Malaysia’s state-                                              for the next presidential election
                                                                                                                                       owned Petronas with 30 percent; West                                                  and an oil law, not to mention for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             a resolution of the ever-dangerous
                                                                                                                                       Qurna Phase 2 with 12.9 billion barrels
                                                                                                                                       went to Russian publically traded giant
                                                                                                                                                                                       All the billions                      Kurdish impasse with the central
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             government. Doing so could pay out
                                                                                                                                       Lukoil with a 64 percent of stake and          of dollars Uncle                       considering there are still seven fields
                                                                                                                                       Norway’s state-owned StatoilHydro              Sam spent and                          of the ones offered in the first two
                                                                                                                                       with 11 percent; West Qurna Phase 1                                                   rounds that didn’t even receive bids.
                                                                                                                                       with 8.7 billion barrels went to U.S.-        the thousands of                        Furthermore, Iraq remains vastly
                                                                                                                                       based Exxon Mobil with a 60 percent          American lives lost                      unexplored and there will surely be
                                                                                                                                       stake and Shell with the remaining 15                                                 more opportunities in the future.
                                                                                                                                       percent, and Rumaila with 17 billion
                                                                                                                                                                                    to secure Iraq will
                                                                                                                                       barrels in reserves went to BP with a 38      not translate into                         That doesn’t mean the economic
                                                                                                                                       percent share and state-owned CNPC          what many expected                        terms will be better, but at least the
                                                                                                                                       of China with 37 percent.                                                             risk will be lower.
                                                                                                                                                                                       would be vast
                                                                                                                                         Of the other fields, Occidental, the          spoils of war                           Still, most U.S. IOC’s are foregoing
                                                                                                                                       only other American company aside                                                     the early entry advantage. If things
 © GETTY IMAGES
                                                                                                                                       from Exxon involved in a winning bid,                                                 go the way Iraqis plan, competition
                                                                                                                                       took a minority stake in a consortium          US companies are also wary of          will only stiffen, along with the
L     ong before U.S. forces launched
      their invasion of Iraq to
                                           observers still expected that the spoils
                                           of war would be handed out during the
                                                                                         bothered to bid in the second round,
                                                                                         the results of which were announced in
                                                                                                                                       led by Italy’s Eni to develop the
                                                                                                                                       Zubair field, with 4.1 billion barrels.
                                                                                                                                                                                   setting a precedent. That is, winning
                                                                                                                                                                                   big in Iraq doesn’t justify risking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             terms. However, if Iraqis are unable
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             to consolidate their path toward
overthrow dictator Saddam Hussein,         first two oil field auctions since the 2003   December. And in the first round, only        CNPC also took a 37.5 percent stake         a wave of contract renegotiations         stability, first-comers will come
few second-doubted the underlying          invasion, if nothing else to compensate       four.                                         in Halfaya with 4.1 billion barrels in      elsewhere in the world. Many U.S.         knocking on American doors seeking
motive was oil.                            for the billions in U.S. taxpayer money       Iraq’s Oil Ministry is still in the process   reserves, leading a consortium that also    IOCs already proved as much when          more money to meet their contracts.
                                           that have gone to nurturing the war-torn      of signing 20-year contracts with             includes Petronas and French Total,         Venezuela changed the rules, while
  The conspiracy theory was debated        country.                                      mostly European, Asian, Russian, and          each with 18.75 percent.                    Europeans accepted the new terms.           In either case though, all the billions
publically even in diplomatic circles as                                                 even African firms that made a strong                                                                                               of dollars Uncle Sam spent and the
high up as the United Nations. Uncle         But if Bush’s objective was to pave         showing. Iraq’s state oil company will           Other winners in smaller fields are        To be sure, European and Asian          thousands of American lives lost to
Sam, led by oil hawks in the White         the way in for U.S. oil companies, it         take 25 percent stake in all fields. And                                                                                            secure Iraq will not translate into
                                                                                                                                       Japex, Russia’s Gazprom, and Turkey’s       companies have already accepted the
House, starting with then President        certainly didn’t pan out that way. From       there is no planned third round to look                                                                                             what many expected would be vast
                                                                                                                                       TPAO. Petronas came out with four           move, but Americans aren’t ready          spoils of war. And that is best for all.
George W Bush, had mobilized the           a list of 15 foreign companies, only two      forward to.                                   stakes in as many fields, including         yet, if nothing else because service
world’s most powerful military under       American ones were involved in the                                                          two big ones. Another surprise was          contracts don’t even count toward
false pretenses to secure the awesome      winning bids for the 10 fields that were        What is at stake is nothing short of        Angola’s Sonangol, the winning loan-        booking reserves, the most attractive
reserves of crude and gas in Iraq, the     awarded.                                      the biggest oil bounty within grasp in        bidder in two fields.                       incentive to shareholders.                Madrid-based freelance journalist
argument went.                                                                           decades. Iraq expects its output to more                                                                                            and political scientist specialising
                                              The reason: they were simply not           than quadruple to a plateau production                                                                                              in Middle Eastern and European
                                                                                                                                            Many have blamed American                And this is not necessarily bad.        policy, as well as global energy
  Years later, even the most benign        interested. Only one U.S. company             of 11.14 million barrels per day within       indifference to insecurity, instability,    Share prices of U.S. IOCs were not        issues


                    29 January, 2010                                                                                             38       Issues 1543                                                                                                               39
   Economics - International Investor


The Neverending Story
 The European Union-GCC Free Trade Agreement
The European Union-GCC Free Trade Agreement is being negotiated for twenty years. While a change of attitude from
both sides could give new impetus to the negotiation process, the hurdles inherent in these negotiations will most likely
not be solved by mere good will.


A     nniversaries are a time for
      reflection,        and       twentieth
anniversaries all the more so. In Europe,
                                                                                              and a third state, may be much more
                                                                                              straightforward, particularly when the
                                                                                              agreement covers a specific and well-
2009 saw much reflection on the fall of                                                       defined field. But a broader accord, such
the Berlin wall in 1989. This year, round                                                     as one providing for free trade between
the world, there are other anniversaries.                                                     two groups of countries, is inherently
Among them is the twentieth anniversary                                                       more challenging. At any particular
of the start of the start of the negotiations                                                 point in time, there are variations in the
between the Gulf Cooperation Council                                                          “fit” between the two groupings – their
(Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi                                                          degree of integration or their comparative
Arabia and United Arab Emirates) and                                                          state of development, for example. And,
the European Community for a Free                                                             at a dynamic level, there are questions
Trade Agreement. Why is it that these                        John Cooke                       concerning the future pace of change that
negotiations have yet to be concluded?                                                        each envisages for itself, and social and
And are there structural reasons, in            the discovery of the New World in the         political questions about the risks and
terms of global political economy, why          fifteenth century, and the formation of       rewards of change. Finally, at any given
have they taken so long?                        the United Netherlands in the sixteenth,      time, one or other grouping may be faced
                                                the United States in the eighteenth, the      by new or difficult challenges: at the time
   This is not the place for a detailed         short-lived European Zollverein customs       being, for instance, both the EU and the
analysis of all the features of a negotiation   union in the nineteenth, and – rather         GCC are having to consider the extent
with such a long and complex history.           differently - the USSR in the twentieth.      to which they can integrate systems of
All the same, a significant anniversary         But regionalism was given new impetus         financial supervision in the wake of the
is a thought-provoking opportunity              – and a new shape - in the post-war           global financial crisis.
for a retrospective look. This is all the       world, as states pooled aspects of their
truer where the object in view is a free        sovereignty to gain wider goals. The            All this means that agreements between
trade agreement. For, with the rarest of        formation in the 1950s of what became         regions, whatever their attractions, are
exceptions, few free trade agreements are       the European Union was a key European         not easy to bring about. There may be
really about free trade alone, narrowly         example. But the later twentieth century      junctures at which they seem feasible,
defined: they nearly always involve             has seen plenty of other examples             only for internal stresses, political
at least some wider mutual approach             round the world – among them the              change, economic preoccupations or
to trade and economic relations. And            Association of South-East Asian Nations       some new challenges to draw the parties
in many cases, particularly when                (ASEAN) from 1967, the South African          apart. But none of this, it seems to me,
relationships between non-contiguous            Development Community (SADC) from             should be a cause for discouragement.
regions are involved, there is some             1980, the Gulf Cooperation Council            Indeed, the twenty year lifetime of the
political motivation aiming at a result         (GCC) from 1981, and Mercosur from            EU-GCC negotiations has been a period
going wider than trade.                         1991. All these showed different degrees      of growing interregionalism, and the
                                                and dynamics of regional integration,         present juncture may well be particularly
  It is often said that globalisation and       taking place for different reasons. But all   favourable to it. To take only two factors,
regionalisation are complementary               reflected the attraction of geographical      the need for economic reconstruction
processes –two sides of the same coin. In       groupings of countries and markets as a       precipitated by the financial crisis,
some ways, globalisation may not really         way of building mutual cooperation.           and the common post-Copenhagen
be global: instead, the process displays                                                      objective of tackling climate change in
marked geographical unevenness, shown             Given this background, it is of course      non-adversarial ways, are key drivers
in the concentration of economic activity       natural for regional groupings to seek        that favour agreements between regions
in the “triad” regions of North America,        the added advantage of building links         towards achieving shared economic aims.
Western Europe and East Asia. This              between each other. And the uneven            I hope that the EU-GCC negotiations
“triad” accounts for the huge bulk of           progress of globalisation strengthens         will derive energy from them and allow
global GDP and global foreign direct            the case for their doing so. However          a Free Trade Agreement to be concluded.
investment. So globalisation has a strong       – and here we come to the EU-GCC
regional component.                             negotiations – broad linkages between
                                                complex groups are not necessarily easy
                                                                                              Chairman, Liberalization of
   Nor is this new. The roots of                to enshrine in agreements. A narrow           Trade in Services Committee,
globalisation and regionalism lie far back      agreement between two states, or even         International Financial Services
in world history – at least as far back as      an agreement between a regional group         London (IFSL)


                      29 January, 2010                                                                                                40    Issues 1543
 Economics - Behind the Graph                                                                                                Economics - Index Page


The Emergence of the BRIICS                                                                                                Bankers Warn Against Unilateralism
The BRIICS (Brazil, Russia,         In the early 1980s, the world             economies have progressed                    Leading industry leaders and         Britain to further regulate banks   the G20. Joseph Ackerman,
India, Indonesia, China and         economy was much different                enormously in the past 30 years.             bankers gathered at the World        could undermine an already          Deutsche      Bank’s       CEO,
South Africa) are a variation of    from what it is today. China was          Furthermore, while developed                 Economic Forum in Davos,             fragile recovery from the worst     underlined that efforts to make
Goldman and Sachs’s BRICs           still living in near autarky; the         economies experienced severe                 Switzerland, cautioned Western       recession since the 1930s.          markets more resilient could be
(Brazil, Russia, India and China)   Cold War kept the Soviet Union,           recessionary pressures during                governments against populist         Barclays Capital’s boss, Bob
                                                                                                                                                                                                    undermined as some activities
put forward by Dr. Razeen Sally,    isolated from the western world;          the global financial crisis, these           measures directed at the financial   Diamond argued that Britain’s
Senior Lecturer of International    Brazil was suffering from severe          emerging economies weathered                 industry. They stressed that         attempt to tax Banker’s bonuses     migrated to unregulated sectors
Political Economy at the London     macroeconomic         imbalances          the financial and economic shock             the unilateral initiatives by        could weaken the multilateral       in the absence of supranational
School of Economics. Dr. Sally      and negative growth rates; and            relatively well. If this trend               the United States and Great          initiatives    coordinated     by   coordination.
argues that the BRIICS grouping     the Indian Economy operated               continues (and all indicates that
is more representative of the       under the strong capital controls         it will), one should ask how
shifts emerging economies are       and the Licence Raj. As the               different the world will look 5 or
undergoing in the 21st century.     graphs bellow illustrate, these           10 years from now.

                                               Inward FDI flows for BRIICS in bn US$ (1980 - 2006)
                                               In the 1990s, the Chinese economy began what has been dubbed as the
                                               biggest and fastest unilateral economic liberalization in contemporary
                                               history. The opening of the Chinese economy to foreign markets
                                               meant the appearance of 1 billion consumers in the global market.
                                               Capital account liberalization and the strong commitments undertaken
                                               by China in its accession to the World Trade Organization created the
                                               conditions for a rapid inflow of foreign direct investment. Although
                                               to a much lesser extend, other BRIICS economies also underwent
                                               ground-breaking economic reforms that rendered these countries
                                               increasingly attractive to international investors. Driving this increase
                                               in FDI inflows since 2003 are the main economic sectors of these
                                               economies, namely agriculture and manufacturing (Brazil), services
                                               (India), and oil and gas (Russia).

                                               Outward FDI flows to BRIICS in bn US$ (2000 - 2006)
                                               Since 2000, the BRIICS economies have consolidated themselves
                                               as major players in the international economic and political
                                               scene. Brazil was able to prove itself for the first time in its
                                               history as immune to contagion from the crises experienced by
                                               its neighbours, such as Argentina. As the BRIICS economies grew
                                               and underwent an unprecedented period of economic stability
                                               and sustainable development, these economies turned into non-
                                               negligible international investors. Benefiting in particular from a
                                               low dollar since 2005, multinationals from the BRIICS entered
                                               the international market with force, competing on an equal footing
                                               with Western multinationals.


                                               BRIICS Share in Global Trade in Goods and
                                               Services (2008)
                                               One of the main drivers behind the rapid emergence of the BRIICS
                                               economies as key players in the international scene was international
                                               trade. Throughout the 1990s, these countries underwent significant
                                               economic reforms, liberalizing trade flows and capital accounts. As
                                               a consequence, companies operating in BRIICS countries had not
                                               only to compete to exist in the international market, but also in their
                                               domestic markets. The pressures to innovate and to specialize in the
                                               country’s comparative advantage led to more efficient allocation of
                                               capital and to faster economic growth and development. In 2008,
                                               these economies represented 15% of all trade in good and services
                                               in the world.

              29 January, 2010                                                                                     42        Issues 1543                                                                                         43
                   Reviews
                    Books        Readings   Reports




29 January, 2010   Issues 1543                        45
  Reviews - Books                                                                                                      Reviews - Books



A Sense                                                                                                           over the past few months.
                                                                                                                  James, however, stresses that
                                                                                                                  the economic fallout from past
                                                                                                                  crises was often exacerbated


of History
                                                                                                                  by subsequent sociopolitical
                                                                                                                  shocks. Depressingly, the ‘Buy
                                                                                                                  American’ provisions originally
                                                                                                                  included in the US federal
The Creation and Destruction of                                                                                   stimulus package, together
                                                                                                                  with the recent tide of anti-
Value: The Globalization Cycle                                                                                    immigration policies proposed
Harold James                                                                                                      by European governments,
                                                                                                                  suggests that policymakers have
Harvard University Press 2009                                                                                     learned frighteningly little from
                                                                                                                  past mistakes. Contrary to what
The Financial Crisis has become the mused of                                                                      the cynics may say, James argues
authors wishing to explain and profit from the                                                                    that while we can do little to
bewilderment that accompanied the economic                                                                        tame the irrational mood-swings
losses of the last couple of years. Harold James’                                                                 of Wall Street traders, there
book, however, stands out for his mastery of                                                                      is nothing unavoidable about
economic principles, financial history, and                                                                       the short-sighted and counter-
                                                                                                                  productive policies put forth by
especially his ability to articulate complex                                                                      populist legislators.
issues to those unfamiliar with the subject.


N
                                                                                                                    Ironically perhaps, the last
      otwithstanding           their   the Panglossian naïveté of           Depression as a consequence           chapter of the book is in many
      collective     failure      to   professional economists and          of the financial crisis of 1929,      ways the weakest. In it, James
      foresee the oncoming             public intellectuals for many        when it actually began with           argues that the fundamental
storm, the Great Recession of          years. Unlike those who saw          banking crisis of 1931 that took      danger facing our international
2008 has been a boon to media-         the Financial euphoria and           place in Austria and Germany.         economic order is a collapse
savvy     economists      wishing      globalization boom of the early                                            of the values supporting global
to give their views on the             2000s as evidence of ‘the end of        Far from being a sterile           integration and international
current economic crisis. Yet,          history,’ James stresses that what   academic       debate,     James’     political cooperation. However,
beyond the countless columns           history actually teaches us is       interpretation has important          when one considers the recent
explaining      the     difference     that there is nothing irreversible   implications for public policy.       diplomatic spat concerning
between      mortgage      backed      or inexorable about the most         While policymakers understand         China’s exchange rate policy,
securities and credit default          recent wave of globalization.        quite well how to use monetary        and the secular shift of
swaps, or the pundits predicting       On the contrary, there is much to    and regulatory policies to fight      economic power away from
a future inflationary crisis, there    be worried about. Past financial     against financial crashes, much       the industrialized West in
has been a noticeable lack of          crises have often exceeded stock     less is known about how to            favor of the emerging BRIC
sober historical analysis of our       market crashes and the bursting      prevent a banking crisis from         countries, one is left thinking
contemporary economic woes.            of Ponzi schemes, metastasizing      degenerating into a full-blown        that geopolitical considerations
It should come as no surprise          into         beggar-thy-neighbor     economic      meltdown.       This    will outweigh any trend towards
that this cacophony of voices          trade wars and xenophobic            perhaps explains why central          moral decrepitness for the
has led many members of the            immigration policies.                banks reacted quickly and             foreseeable future.
lay public to agree with Hegel’s                                            effectively to the drying-up of
assessment that what history             The first thing one appreciates    liquidity markets in 2007, while        Ultimately, despite emphasizing
teaches us is that economists          upon opening this book is            governments acted in such a           many worrying similarities
have not learned anything from         James’ rare mastery of economic      hesitant and haphazard manner         between the current financial
history at all.                        principles, financial history, and   when it came to bailing out           crisis and past episodes of
                                       his ability to articulate complex    large financial institutions in the   economic collapse, the book does
    Harold James’ latest book          issues in a way easily accessible    fall of 2008.                         not adopt an apocalyptic tone.
should therefore be welcomed by        to the uninitiated reader. The                                             Instead, much like Voltaire’s
those readers avidly searching         book begins by questioning              Many commentators have             Candide, James’ invites us to
for an accessible introduction to      the conventional wisdom that         limited themselves to discussing      take history seriously, rather than
the history of modern economic         the Great Depression began           how the recent financial troubles     relying blindly on a misplaced
crashes. A Princeton University        with the stock market crash of       are affecting the real economy,       optimism. As the author himself
professor, and a specialist of         1929, colloquially referred to       be it the significant decline in      writes, ‘analyzing what went
twentieth    century     German        as ‘Black Tuesday.’ Indeed, the      growth rates or the massive           wrong is the key to learning from
Financial history, Professor           facile reference to 1929 often       increase in unemployment that         a cathartic crisis, as well as to
James has been warning against         made misconstrues the Great          has plagued many countries            preventing a Carthaginian one.        Harold James


                  29 January, 2010                                                                          46      Issues 1543                                    47
  Reviews - Readings                                                                                        Reviews - Readings




Readings                                                                                               Reports
Books
Sowing Crisis: The Cold War and American Dominance                                                     Yemen Fear of Failure                                                                       Cover
in the Middle East                                                                                     Chatham House Report
                                                                                                       Ginny Hill
Rashid Khalidi                                                                                         January 2010
January 2010                                                                                           Yemen presents a 'perfect storm' of problems for Western governments confronting
Khalidi’s latest book provides a comprehensive history of modern conflict in the          Cover        the prospect of state failure in this strategically important Red Sea country, according
Middle East. Sowing Crisis argues that current conflicts are by-products of the cold                   to a new Chatham House paper. Based on original research conducted over 16 months
war and the policies, strategies and priorities of the United States and the Soviet                    in Yemen, this paper by journalist and film-maker Ginny Hill says future instability in
Union. Khalidi illustrates how the cold war rivals saw the Middle East-with its vital                  this weak and incomplete state has the potential to expand a lawless zone stretching
location and vast oil and gas reserves-as a tool to further their parallel agendas:                    from northern Kenya, through Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, to Saudi Arabia. Piracy,
the Soviets and Americans both subordinated the goal of Arab-Israeli peace and                         smuggling and violent jihad would flourish, with implications for the security of
supplied weapons at a profit to both Iraq and Iran during their eight-year war, while                  shipping routes, the transit of oil through the Suez Canal and the internal security of
the U.S. sought to further its dominance of the region by backing a coup to overthrow                  Yemen's neighbours.
democracy in Iran. Khalidi concludes by charting how George W. Bush's "Global
War on Terror" has allowed for a massive military expansion in the Middle East
and resulted in futile and feckless policies that may have increased the actual risk to
American citizens and wreaked havoc on the region. Khalidi has written an important
book, essential for anyone concerned about the stability of the Middle East.


                                                                                                                                                                                                   Cover
Guardians of the Revolution: Itan and the World in the age of
the Ayatollahs
                                                                                                       Sudan: Abuse Undermines Impending Elections
Ray Takeyh                                                                                             End Rights Violations, Ensure Fair and Free Elections
June 2009                                                                                 Cover
The unending war of words suggests an intractable divide between Iran and the
                                                                                                       Human Rights Watch
West, one that may very well lead to a shooting war in the near future. But as Ray                     January 2010
Takeyh shows in this accessible and authoritative history of Iran's relations with the                 In a recent press-release by Human Rights Watch, the organization calls the
world since the revolution, behind the famous personalities and extremist slogans                      international community to take note of the violations of civil and political rights by
is a nation that is far more pragmatic—and complex—than many in the West have                          Sudanese security forces throughout the country. The report further argues that these
been led to believe. Takeyh explodes many of our simplistic myths of Iran as an                        trends are seriously undermining prospects for free, fair, and credible elections in
intransigently Islamist foe of the West. Tracing the course of Iranian policy since                    April 2010.
the 1979 revolution, Takeyh identifies four distinct periods: the revolutionary era of
the 1980s, the tempered gradualism following the death of Khomeini and the end of
the Iran-Iraq war in 1989, the "reformist" period from 1997-2005 under President
Khatami, and the shift toward confrontation and radicalism since the election of
President Ahmadinejad in 2005.



Engaging the Muslim World                                                                 Cover                                                                                                    Cover
Juan Cole
March 2009
                                                                                                       The Emerging Law of Detention: The Guantanamo Habeas
Juan Cole’s book, Engaging the Muslim World, disentangles the key foreign policy                       Cases as Lawmaking Brookings Institution
issues that America is grappling with today and in doing so provides the West with                     Benjamin Wittes, Robert Chesney and Rabea Benhalim
recommendations on how to proceed. Cole’s unique ability to take the true Muslim                       January 2010
perspective into account when looking at East-West relations make his insights                         President Obama’s decision not to seek additional legislative authority for detentions
well-rounded and prescient as he suggests a course of action on fundamental issues                     at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba—combined with Congress’s lack of interest in the task—
like religion, oil, war and peace. With substantive recommendations for the next                       means that, for good or for ill, judges must write the rules governing military detention
administration on how to move forward in key countries such as Iraq, Pakistan,                         of terrorist suspects. As the United States reaches the president’s self-imposed
Afghanistan, and Iran, Engaging the Muslim World reveals how we can repair the                         January 22, 2010 deadline for Guantanamo’s closure with the base still holding nearly
damage of the disastrous foreign policy of the last eight years and forge ahead on a                   200 detainees, the common-law process of litigating their habeas corpus lawsuits has
path of peace and prosperity                                                                           emerged as the chief legislative mechanism for doing so.


                   29 January, 2010                                                               48      Issues 1543                                                                                      49
  Reviews - Reports                                                                                                       Reviews - Reports

                                                                                                                       how these alterations have improved      counterinsurgency effort which             jihadists…’

Judgement Day                                                                                                          or weakened the US’s goals in
                                                                                                                       Afghanistan-Pakistan.        Although
                                                                                                                       rigorous in their assessment, the
                                                                                                                       Brookings Institution provides a
                                                                                                                                                                sought to reverse the worsening
                                                                                                                                                                security situation in Afghanistan.
                                                                                                                                                                As the Brookings Institution had
                                                                                                                                                                expected, these measures created
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Overall,
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Institution’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              the    Brookings
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             assessment
                                                                                                                                                                                                           positive and comprehensive. For
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              is

The Status Report: Obama’s Challenges in Afghanistan and Pakistan                                                      fair, and surprisingly positive review   ‘the necessary environment for a           one, an assessment of the US’s
Vanda Felbab Brown                                                                                                     of the President’s decisions in the      large-scale economic development           accomplishments in the region
                                                                                                                       region thus far.                         effort, including a strong agricultural    might have only been measured by
Brookings Institution                                                                                                                                           program that would also reduce             assessing how American interests
January 2010                                                                                                              The Brookings report begins by        poppy cultivation.’                        were advanced. Yet the report is
                                                                                                                       acknowledging that the question                                                     also dedicated to measuring how
                                                                                                                       of Afghanistan was part of an               Unfortunately, the comprehensive        the actions of the US affected local
                                                                                                                       important debate within the United       nature of the approach was                 issues, which might have a lesser
                                                                                                                       States. In other words, that there       weakened by what Brown called              importance for American interests,
                                                                                                                       were significant internal political      a ‘narrow counterterrorism focus           but far greater implications for the
                                                                                                                       obstacles that could have stood in the   that emphasized the need to prevent        region as a whole.
                                                                                                                       way of decisive action on the part of    Al-Qaeda havens in Afghanistan.’
                                                                                                                       the administration. Yet, despite this    Although       limiting     Al-Qaeda          In addition to taking into account
                                                                                                                       challenge, the Obama administration,     havens is surely an important              the interests of all parties, Brown’s
                                                                                                                       according to Brown ‘announced in         goal for American interests, in            report is also balanced as she
                                                                                                                       December 2009 the right strategy to      terms of the overarching goals of          considers the way in which American
                                                                                                                       accomplish the objectives laid out       counterterrorism, Brown considers          politics limit or support successful
                                                                                                                       for Afghanistan-Pakistan. He also        such a strategy short sighted. More        strategies in the country’s foreign
                                                                                                                       committed much needed resources to       importantly, focusing mainly on the        policy. Nonetheless, her ability to
                                                                                                                       accomplish them.’                        interests of the US in the area failed     question the speed at which important
                                                                                                                                                                to appeal to Afghans. When trying to       decisions were taken allows for the
                                                                                                                          The overall verdict of Obama’s        win the hearts and minds of locals,        US, to be held accountable for its
                                                                                                                       policy however was not entirely          such oversights can be detrimental.        strategy in a region that is easily
                                                                                                                       positive according to her assessment.    Furthermore, this review did not           destabilized.
                                                                                                                       While he did implement the correct       include a thorough investigation of
                                                                                                                       policy, Brown argues that 2009 turned    the resources required to develop             The report, is thus balanced in its
                                                                                                                       out to be a year of lost opportunities   a successful counterinsurgency             assessment. While remaining critical
                                                                                                                       in Afghanistan. The reason for this      strategy in Afghanistan, an issue          of the administrations short comings
                                                                                                                       is that the momentum of improving        that was later raised by the new US        and, at times, short sighted approach,
                                                                                                                       strategies was compromised by            Commander in Afghanistan, General          it continues to acknowledge that
                                                                                                                       the corruption in Afghanistan, and       Stanley McChrystal.                        progress was made. Most notably,
                                                                                                                       apathy on the part of the Afghan                                                    Brown was quick to acknowledge
                                                                                                                       administration. As a result, she           While this prompted an additional        the efforts of the administration
                                                                                                                       argues, the window of opportunity        review by President Obama which            which successfully improved the
                                                                                                                       to defeat the insurgency partly          evaluated the challenges McChrystal        security situation in some regions of
Obama’s presidency held promises of change for those looking to see the security situation in                          closed, and as a committed party in      was facing, Brown argues that the          the country.
Afghanistan and Pakistan improve. A year later, Brookings Institution Fellow Vanda Felbab Brown                        the country, the US needs to be held     second review did little, if nothing, to
                                                                                                                       accountable on the shortcomings of       improve the confidence of Americans           It is fair, then, to agree with
puts Obama’s strategy to the test concluding that although there were significant setbacks, the
                                                                                                                       its ability to confront local issues.    and Afghans of the new direction of        Brown on the potential that lies
important groundwork has been laid for vast improvements.                                                                                                                                                  ahead in America’s involvement
                                                                                                                       ‘The Obama administration’s policy       the US in the region. Expectations
                                                                                                                                                                                                           in the region. Namely, that while

P
                                                                                                                       in Afghanistan and Pakistan thus         were equally hurt with the advent of
      resident Obama’s election          about meeting. While only a year       progresses and shortcomings of         earns a B.’                              Karzai’s fraudulent campaign.              the American military is not yet
      was greeted by the world as a      has passed since his inauguration,     the administration in this area.                                                                                           out of the woods with regards to
harbinger of the positive changes that   it is certainly an important moment    While various publications have           A “B” in the American grading            On the other hand, Brown was            Afghanistan and Pakistan, the
were to come. His campaign, run on       to assess his policies, particularly   also discussed Obama’s first year      system, is somewhere between             positive in her review of the              necessary foundations have been
the promise of change, was welcome       regarding those in Afghanistan and     in the White House, her report is      satisfactory and excellent. The          administration’s performance in            put into place in order to complete
by the international community, and      Pakistan where there is much to be     unique as it is based on specific      reason for Brown concluding that         Pakistan, arguing that despite             a successful counterinsurgency
most of all, by those looking for a      done.                                  recommendations she provided the       this was the overall performance of      inheriting a deteriorating security        strategy.
successful end to the challenge in                                              administration when Obama was          the US was two-fold. Great strides       relationship, the US was able to help
Afghanistan-Pakistan. Nonetheless,        Brookings Institution Fellow, Vanda   inaugurated. The Status Report now     took place in March 2009 after a two     the Pakistani ‘military and civilian       For the full report refer to:
these promises created expectations      Felbab Brown, is in a particularly     takes a look at how Obama’s policy     month review was put into place.         leadership to devote the will and
that even Obama grew concerned           good position to measure the           differed from their suggestions, and   This review consisted of a broad         capacity to confront the Pakistani         http://www.brookings.edu/

                   29 January, 2010                                                                              50      Issues 1543                                                                                                          51
    The Political Essay



Mixed Signals
The Taliban’s Counter-Counterinsurgency Manual
Mullah Omar’s code of conduct for Taliban fighters raises the issue of whether actions are following
words and, in spite of central concern with civilian casualties, there is the lack of definition of who is
a civilian. The issuing of this strategy last summer might be behind Karzai’s government assumption
that the Taliban are changing and thus the time to negotiate has arrived. This assumption can be a
big mistake.


A        fter        General      Petraeus
         Counterinsurgency Field Manual
         and      General    McChrystal’s
Assessment, another strategic document
                                                                                             It seems fair to assume that there is in
                                                                                             fact a different approach by the Taliban.
                                                                                             The issue, however, regards what value
                                                                                             to attribute to this change. The Afghan
has the potential to change the course of                                                    Taliban ties with al-Qaeda—whose main
the war in Afghanistan, at least according                                                   targets are civilians—lends a certain sense
to some analysts and news agencies.                                                          of contradiction to the idea of expecting
Issued last summer, Mullah Omar’s code                                                       a changed approach from the Taliban,
of conduct for Taliban fighters establishes                                                  after the issuing of Mullah Omar’s code
clear rules of engagement and behaviour.                                                     of conduct. Mullah Omar has refused
Among these rules, avoiding civilian                                                         to break such ties, in spite of numerous
casualties and civilian distress stand out                                                   attempts from several fronts to convince
as the central concerns and main reasons                  Manuel Almeida                     the Taliban to go in that direction. Among
for the alleged change of behaviour. The                                                     these attempts is Saudi Arabia’s King
document is back into public discussion                                                      Abdullah’s 2008 letter asking Mullah
in the context of recent developments in        The fact that the Afghan Taliban is not      Omar to disavow al-Qaeda which was
Afghanistan, making it an appropriate time      a particularly centralized organization      snubbed by the Taliban leader.
to assess its implications.                     challenges the belief that The Islamic
                                                Emirate of Afghanistan Rules for             Judging by the related and long standing
The rules of The Islamic Emirate of             Mujahideen will have/is already having       question of whether or not to negotiate
Afghanistan Rules for Mujahideen,               a profound impact in actual Taliban          with the Taliban, US officials and
as the document is called, include the          behaviour. Mullah Omar and the Quetta        the Karzai government seem to have
following: (a) “Governors, district chiefs      Shura do not have a very close control       divergent opinions. US officials believe
and line commanders and every member            over all the fighters that belong or claim   that the possibility of negotiating is only
of the mujahideen must do their best to         to belong to the Afghan Taliban ranks.       feasible after the Taliban break with al-
avoid civilian deaths, civilian injuries and    This characteristic—a high degree of         Qaeda and suffer a few serious setbacks.
damage to civilian property. Great care         autonomy—is precisely what makes them        Defense Secretary Robert Gates was
must be taken”; (b) “if any mujahideen or       so dangerous and allows them to operate so   quite straightforward regarding this
commander is disturbing innocent people         swiftly over such huge distances and under   position in his recent visit to Pakistan.
he should be warned by his leader. If he        such harsh geographical conditions. This     The Afghan Government seems to think
doesn’t change his behaviour he should          is in deep contrast with the international   otherwise, and Mullah Omar’s document
be expelled from the movement”; and (c)         coalition troops, who complain ironically    and the changes it enforced might have
“people with a bad reputation or who have       of having to wait for written permission     convinced Karzai and his aides that the
killed civilians during the Jihad must not be   before firing a single shot.                 Afghan Taliban has adopted a less radical
permitted to join the Taliban movement”.                                                     more reconciliatory approach. This
                                                Together with the lack of definition of      assumption can be a big mistake.
Clearly part of the militants’ propaganda       who is a civilian, the main question is
war, the rules for the Mujahideen apparently    whether or not the Taliban have changed      The way the Karzai government is
prove the Taliban’s acknowledgement that        their behaviour since Mullah Omar’s          referred to—“the slave government”—
whoever wins the fight for “the hearts and      directives were distributed. The signs are   in The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
minds of the population”, will win the war.     mixed. Suicide and other types of attack     Rules for Mujahideen leaves no room
Indeed, the motto “focus on the population”     undertaken by the Taliban of which most      for doubting that while the Taliban might
adopted in the international coalition’s        victims are civilians have continued.        become softer with those they consider
strategy following General McChrystal’s         Yet, a less aggressive approach has been     civilians, they have no intention of doing
report seems to have equally been adopted       observed in the Taliban dealings with the    so with the government in Kabul. Last
by the Taliban. In spite of this, there is      Afghan population. As The New York           week’s Taliban attacks in the centre of
no definition in Mullah Omar’s strategic        Times has recently reported, the shift in    the capital on government buildings is
document of who a civilian is, which makes      Taliban behaviour towards civilians is       a reminder that, while the Taliban think
it very prone to different interpretations by   confirmed by NATO officials and Afghan       they are winning, offering them carrots
the various Taliban commanders.                 villagers alike.                             is a bad idea.


                      29 January, 2010                                                                                               52    53
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