Chana Daily Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page 1 22 August by niusheng11

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									  22 August 2011                                                                      Chana Daily




                                                                                                    FOR PRIVATE CIRCULATION ONLY.
    22 August 2011
                               NCDEX                                                                            ACE

   Contract     Open           High           Low       Close           Close    Contract        Open    High          Low          Close             Close
   Sep-11     3099.00    3128.00        3098.00       3120.00       24.00         Sep-11     3105.00    3127.00       3105.00      3119.50        25.00
   Oct-11     3190.00    3218.00        3186.00       3211.00       25.00         Oct-11     3204.00    3217.00       3196.00      3209.50        24.50
   Nov-11     3270.00    3289.00        3269.00       3283.00       23.00         Nov-11     3276.00    3288.00       3270.00      3282.00        36.50
   Dec-11     3327.00    3352.00        3327.00       3345.00       26.00         Dec-11     3334.00    3347.00       3334.00      3339.50        33.00


   Contract        Vol (MT)             Vol            OI          OI            Contract    Vol (MT)           Vol      OI (lots)           OI
   Sep-11          152140         -49750        318620          -8230             Sep-11         7360       -6640          1011             4
   Oct-11           81800          -3820        117080          13270             Oct-11         4320       960              294            7
   Nov-11           13300           1810         61150           4890             Nov-11          360       260               9             -7
   Dec-11               3480          -6820         30940        -390             Dec-11          70        -230              4             -1

    FUTURES

    •   Chana prices across the counter ruled firm towards the weekend on fresh buying and closed gaining 0.8-
        0.9% in both the exchanges

    •   We witnessed covering of short positions in NCDEX September contract while fresh buying featured in far
        month contracts

    •   ACE September contract witnessed fresh buying, however the change in close price and open interest
        was not significant towards the weekend

    SPOT MARKET                                                                 SPOT PRICES

    Chana prices across the cash market surged on                               Centre                          Spot Rs./Qtl                 Change
    robust buying. The demand for besan is expected to                          Bikaner                             2921                         61
                                                                                Delhi                               3000                         29
    remain good for the upcoming festivals like Ganesh
                                                                                Indore                              2990                         38
    Chaturthi. Meanwhile the supply pipeline in the
                                                                                Source: NCDEX
    domestic markets is also reported to be tight which
    will keep the up trend intact. Also supporting the                          WARE HOUSE STOCKS in MT (As on 18/08/2011)
    firm sentiments are lower acreages for Kharif
    pulses.                                                                                               NCDEX                         ACE
                                                                                   Centers
                                                                                                   Demat     In Process         Demat     In Process
                                                                                Bikaner             61363       290              3386          50
    Desi chana of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh line as                             Delhi              85773        517              8255        822
    well as Maharashtra line mill quality chana quoted                          Indore              14484        31             12115         931
    Rs 25 up at 2,975-3,000 a quintal. Chapa cold                               Indore (Dewas)       1445         0               NA          NA
    storage chana quoted stable at Rs 3,200 -3,225 per                          Total              163065       838             23756        1803
    quintal.
                                                                                Prices (Rs./100 kg)                        Current      Previous Day
    Chana dal average and sortex variety is offered                             Mumbai- Australia (Ready)                     NA                    NA
    steady at Rs 3,300-3,450 per quintal.                                       Delhi-Desi Chana-RAJ/MP                3000-3025             2975-3000
                                                                                Indore-Desi Chana                      3000-3025             2975-3000
                                                                                Indore-Chana NCDEX quality                    3100           3075-3100
    Arrivals in Delhi on Saturday declined to 35-40
    trucks steady as that of Friday’s session.                                  Indore Dollor chana                    7500-8100             7500-8100


    As per Ministry of Agriculture all India Kharif pulses                      Source: Commodities Control
    sowing this season during the week ending 29th July                         DC = Desi Chana
    is down by 7.9 lakh ha to 73.91 lakh ha as                                  AC = Australian Chana



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  22 August 2011                                                                                                                                                                      Chana Daily


   Market                                                                                                     Arrival                             Today's quotes                     compared to 81.83 lakh ha last year same time.
   Raipur                                                                                                   NA                                                                3125   FORWARD CURVE:
   Ahmednagar – Chapa                                                                                1100 Bags                                                                2900
   Ahmednagar – Desi                                                                                                                                                          2825
                                                                                                                                                                                     3400
   Ahmednagar – Mausami                                                                                                                                                       2950
   Jalgaon                                                                                                                                                   3000-3100
                                                                                                                                                                                     3350
   Latur (bilty)                                                                                                                                             2925-3050
   Bikanner                                                                                            200 Bags                                              2725-2750
                                                                                                                                                                                     3300
   Kishanganj                                                                                          100 Bags                                              2700-2740
   Medta                                                                                               100 Bags                                              2775-2800
                                                                                                                                                                                     3250
   Udgir chana (bilty)                                                                                                  NA                                   2900-2950
   Delhi (Rajasthan line)                                                                                                                                    3000-3025
   Delhi (Madhya Pradesh line)                                                                                                                               3000-3025               3200
   Katni                                                                                             1600 Bags                                               2775-2825
   Indore                                                                                                                                                    2950-2975               3150
   Lalitpur                                                                                          1500 Bags                                               2650-2715
   Orai                                                                                                100 Bags                                              2775-2800               3100                  Monday          Tuesday           Wednesday
   Bandha                                                                                              100 Bags                                              2825-2850
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Thursday        Friday            Saturday
   Mohoba                                                                                                 50 Bags                                            2825-2850               3050
   Source: Commodities Control                                                                                                                                                                Sep-11      Oct-11         Nov-11          Dec-11

   October- September                                                                                                                                                                Source: NCDEX & KCSL Research

     200
                                                   2006             2007           2009              2010             2011         Average
                                                                                                                                                                                     SPREAD:
     180


     160                                                                                                                                                                             Spread            Oct-11         Nov-11        Dec-11          Jan-12
     140
                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-11               91            163           225                264
     120
                                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-11                              72           134                173
     100
                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov-11                                            62                101
                                                                                                                                                                                     Dec-11                                                                 39
      80


      60


      40
                                                                                                                                                                                     Source NCDEX & KCSL Research
      20


       0                                                                                                                                                                             Forward Curve: On Saturday the forward curved
                                                                                                                                                                                     shifted towards the left on good buying. During
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      -40
                                                                                                                                                                                     coming days we expect the demand for chana to
      -60
                                                                                                                                                                                     remain strong and support the prices. The
                                                                                                                                                                                     September and October spread is also expected to
      -80




                                                                                                                                                                                     widen to 140 currently the spread is at 91. Sell
   September and Buy October near 85-95 target 140-150 stop loss at 75.

   Outlook:

   Chana prices are expected to trade with a positive bias. Expectation of good demand at the cash market amid
   limited inventories will keep the trend supported in long term. Upcoming festivals will keep the domestic
   demand robust for the pulse. The NCDEX September contract is getting support near Rs.3030-3045 while
   resistance is seen near Rs.3191-3200 and ACE September contract is getting support near 3030-3045 and
   resistance is seen near Rs.3195-3202.




Chana Daily                                                                                               Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page                                                                                                        2
   22 August 2011                                                                                             Chana Daily




                   Faiyaz Hudani                                                                            Dharmesh Bhatia
                   Sr. Research Analyst- Spices, Edible Oil                                                 Associate Vice-President- Technical Research
                   faiyaz.hudani@kotakcommodities.com                                                       dharmesh.bhatia@kotakcommodities.com
                   +91-22-66528837                                                                          +91-22-66528846




                   Sudha R. Acharya                                                                          Amit Sajeja
                   Research analyst- Edible Oil, Pulses                                                      Sr. Research Analyst- Technical Analyst
                   sudha.acharya@kotakcommodities.com                                                        amit.sajeja@kotakcommodities.com
                   +91-22-66528809                                                                           +91-22-66528847




                   Madhavi Mehta                                                                             Ajay Baheti
                   Research analyst- Energy, Bullion                                                         Associate Research- Technical Analyst
                   madhavi.mehta@kotakcommodities.com                                                        ajay.baheti@kotakcommodities.com
                   +91-22-66528809                                                                           +91-22-66528845




                   Priyanka Jhaveri
                   Research analyst- Base Metals
                   priyanka.jhaveri@kotakcommodities.com
                   +91-22-66528848




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