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r uss i a
Russia’s
declining
might
In the near future, quality will not replace
quantity in the Russian Army, with cuts to
the absolute numbers of staff, garrisons,
bases, and equipment. New technological
solutions capable of delivering a sea-change
in conventional weaponry remain in the
distant future – and with the current
resourcing they might be altogether
beyond the horizon. >
BY JUKK A HELLBERG, COLONEL (RE T )
2 SOTILAS
SUOMENSUOMEN SOTILAS 6 • 2009 SUOMEN SOTILAS
r uss i a
In a real crisis, a state like Russia may be capable of increasing
its military potential faster than generally perceived. This is no
longer possible in complete secrecy and without reactions abroad,
however.”
T
he considerable technologi- activity and corruption, and to a degree
cal backwardness of Russia’s Russia’s new openness in internation-
armed forces came to light al politics. Russia’s perceived threat sce-
over a century and a half ago narios have changed to more inert ones,
in the Crimean War. The need and are now better based in concrete re-
to defend the whole imperi- ality in support of the political decision-
um and the oversight in de- making. For the Western world, this new
veloping a railroad network international orientation of Russia is
prevented the generals from positive development. One hopes that
concentrating sufficient for- in this process the quality of the inter-
ces in the Crimea. In 1853 the Imperial change is at least as important as quan-
Army could only issue one musket for tity.
every two soldiers, and only four per
cent of the infantry had a proper rifle. A
technological divide had opened up bet- A new look
ween Russia and the West, with radical Russian Ministry of Defence’s latest re-
reforms the only potential remedy. The form design builds on the national se-
problem only got worse, however, and curity strategy and military doctrine
in the following century the until 2020, to be implement-
Russo-Japanese War, and ed in 2009-2012. During
the First World War pro- this time, the plan is to
ved the Czar’s army was streamline and mod-
insufficient as a fighting ernise the Russian
force. armed forces in sweep-
Has there really not ing and swift steps. The
been any change in over deepest and potentially
a century? Various, often most painful impact will
incomplete reforms have be felt in the officer corps,
gone on for almost two dec- the organisational struc-
ades, practically for the whole ture, acquisition programs,
existence of the “new” Russia. and the garrisons. In many as-
Nearly every attempt has culmi- pects the reforms are modeled af-
nated in reductions to staff and bas- ter the West, especially the United
es, coinciding with end of life of a weap- States. If the changes can be successfully
ons system. The mid-nineties saw the implemented in full – which is doubtful
release of more than 100 000 officers in in light of e.g. the social impact – the de-
a single year, a situation which nearly re- velopments would be historically posi-
sulted in a societal meltdown. Today, the tive. Were that the case, one could rea-
reform debate is open, passionate, and sonably draw the tentative conclusion
in part very critical in the Russian media that Russia is moving from plain power
– both for and against. However, no-one politics towards the bumpy road of in-
has cast into doubt the need for or the ternational co-operation. The military
continued existence of Russian armed action in Georgia last August did not
forces. slow Russia’s process of international-
WASHINGTON TIMES
The main drivers for the reduction- isation: in the grand scheme of things,
ist reforms are the armed forces’ chronic the international community does dis-
budget deficit, the endogenous criminal tinguish between the minor and major, >
SUOMEN SOTILAS SUOMEN SOTILAS
r uss i a
K I MICHAEL JOHANSSON
The embattled Finland’s
morals stable security
environment
I
n the beginning of the 18th the most worrying fact is that even
century Peter the Great the stern measures of the recent The military security environment
modernised the govern- past have in practice failed to yield immediately surrounding Fin-
ment, but the reforms were any improvement whatsoever. Sta- land (Leningrad military district,
improvised and rather ill- tistics show that under the agency Northern Fleet) has stabilised for
conceived. He did un- of other important bodies, e.g. the a number of reasons recently. To-
derstand, however, Ministry of Internal day Russia can be read, thanks to
that the corruption Affairs, illegal activi- e.g. the open electronic communi-
and tax evasion ties have been sig- cations, like an open book. Signif-
must be eradicat- nificantly reduced. icant reductions in the surround-
ed. To this task he Measures continue ing military strength will not be
appointed in 1711 to be implemented, made, due to the simple fact that
a body of nine ad- however, and in the there is no more “redundant” mil-
visors, led by chief long run improve- itary. Russia does not want to re-
fiscal Nesterov, but ment is inevitable. The duce its security level near zero
even he was later ex- investigative authori- even on its north-west border.
ecuted for corruption. ties and the judiciary The current deployable strength,
Corruption in Russia is, are picking up, as evinced their quality or quantity notwith-
like in Italy, in the blood, now by increase in the number of standing, is allegedly “sufficient to
and in the future. The defense ad- crimes revealed, and soon the high- prepare for a potential sometime
ministration and the subordinate est officers, the admirals and the threat”. In light of the quantity and
armed forces are by no means ex- generals, may no longer be un- quality of the positioned Russian
empt from this rule. touchable. troops, the border we share can at
important and less so events that have er strongly defined by its relationship In the Russian armed forces, least in the immediate future be
taken place. None of the great pow- with the U.S. criminality and corruption are eve- JH considered a haven of tranquility.
ers is going to willingly give up their ryday. For the Ministry of Defence, A joint military exercise would at
In any case, present or potentially attainable pre-
rogatives. Thus it is more than appro- No news from the
least cut the dull.
Russia’s priate for them to uphold Russia as a Eastern front JH
co-operative partner. Russia’s updated military doctrine
behavior in Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the considers a large-scale war scenar-
Security Council of Russia, has stated io very unlikely, but does not rule it
foreign and that a new military doctrine, updat- out. The armed forces are developed
ed from the year 2000 version, will be with the prevention and containment
military policy ready by the end of 2009. Information of locally occurring wars and armed
matters is that has so far been made public has
it that the revision does not contain
conflicts in mind. The use of tacti-
cal nuclear weapons in local conflict
rather strongly radically new or unprecedented con-
tent. Russia continues to seek a stra-
is deemed possible. The strategic nu-
clear armament is considered a deter-
defined by its tegic parity with the United States and rent, but pre-emptive use may be con-
wants equal status in international sidered in face of “a critical threat to
relationship decision-making. Conflictingly, Rus- national security”. In countering ter-
sia holds the U.S. as a strategic part- rorism, emphasis is placed on “skill,
with the US.” ner, but on the other hand views the not numbers”, in other words, special
U.S. and its allies as a potential ene- forces and equipment and precision
my and global troublemakers. In this strikes at terrorists’ pressure points,
context Russia does not want its sta- for example their sources of funding.
tus as a great power disputed in polit- In the development and upkeep of the
ical, economic, nor military terms. In defense industry, the old purely scien-
any case, Russia’s behavior in foreign tific and technological perspective is to
and military policy matters is rath- be augmented with a socioeconomic >
SUOMEN SOTILAS SUOMEN SOTILAS
r uss i a
and humanitarian viewpoint. Improve- negligible, even negative in some sec- vate criminal gain by military and civ- id change can be funded and managed. ever, the true current strength is already
ments to the social well-being of the tors of the armed forces. This year’s de- il personnel, and sizable criminal cases The idea of a lighter organisation- significantly less than that, six to eight
hundreds of thousands of defense in- fense budget is about 32 billion euros, regarding state purchases are frequent- al model is already a decade old. Pavel hundred thousand. This means that
dustry employees and their families and in 2011 it is estimated to grow by ly publicised. Grachov, an Army General and a defense many young officers are almost perma-
have been promised, to preserve civil
peace.
2 billion euros at the current rates. The
majority of the budget will continue to
minister in 1992-1996 could not garner
the political support needed for the re-
nently stuck in rank and file duties. In
the future, the greatest cuts will focus in
“…In the
Aiming for cost-efficiency
The content of the military doctrine
is in part influenced by the change of di-
be spent on alleviating social problems
instead of, say, the qualitative develop- The Russian armed forces plan to move
form, mainly due to his contradictory
persona, inadequately prepared propos-
the heart of the armed forces, the officer
corps. In the next two years, 200 000 of- near future,
rection in Russia’s foreign policy. In the ment of the personnel, the infrastruc- to a new cost-saving organisational al, and the armed forces’ then strong re- ficers are to be transferred in the reserve,
prevention and solution of crises, em-
phasis is now placed on political and
ture, or the training. Finding a solution
to the nagging social issues is nearly an
structure by the end of 2012. The Min-
istry of Defence and the subordinate
sistance to change. There is still change
resistance present in the army today,
which means the army will be left with
150 000 officers.
quality will
not replace
diplomatic measures. This direction is endless task. The given resourcing forc- leading General Staff are expected to but it seems the developments can no The number of colonels will go down
grounded in reality since the great pow- es the defense administration to con- undergo significant personnel cuts. longer be held back in their entirety. from 15 000 to 3000, lieutenant colonels
ers’ mutual economic dependence is sider the focus areas keenly, and to find At the same time, the various levels of Traditionally, the Russian officers see from 19 000 to 7500, and majors from
growing. As an example, in November
2009 Russia had a direct foreign debt
ways to monitor the input-output ratio,
and especially to check inefficiency and
management are combined to reduce
duplicate functions. The military dis-
red when faced with any sort of quan-
titative reductions, regardless whether
100 000 to 30 000. Of the 1100 present
generals and admirals, less than 900 will
quantity in
of 28 billion dollars. In contrast, in June misconduct. trict–army–division–regiment structure there would be tangible benefits or not. remain. This reduction reflects already
2009 the US owed 776 billion to China,
712 billion to Japan, and 120 billion to
In 2005 the state defense pro-
curement (weapon and equipment)
will be replaced with the lighter military
district–operative staff–brigade–battal-
It may be the attitudes are slowly chang-
ing, and the benefits are seen in another
in drastic cuts in the intake of the Army
General Staff Academy. In contrast, the
the Russian
Russia. These are ample grounds to play
it nice together.
amounted to about 4-5 billion euros. In
2009 the figure is put to slightly over 11
ion organisation. Bases will be closed,
combined, and training is to be central-
light today. With free access to informa-
tion and increased debate, proper in-
numbers of lieutenants and senior lieu-
tenants will increase only by 10 000, to
Army…”
billion, with no growth expected for at ised on a regional level. As an example, sight is bound to proliferate. 60 000. By the numbers, it is clear that
least two years. And that is, according the number of Army units and groups the reform is not going to be small nor
Halting growth means slow to Russian military experts, what brings will go down from 1890 to less than cheap. The training of conscripts and
development to ruin the current 2015 purchase pro- two hundred, the air forces and air de- Utopia or realism? contract rank and file will be trusted to
Russia’s defense budget has grown in gram. The comprehensive lack of trans- fense units will be cut from 340 to 180, The book strength of the Russian Army “sergeants”, following the model of the
the recent past 15 to 25 per cent annu- parency in the purchasing processes and the naval forces’ units from 240 to is scheduled to drop from 1.34M to ex- United States military. Russian Army as
ally. The real growth, however, cleared also contributes. Procurement funding 123. Common sense begs the question actly 1 million by the end of 2012. Ac- a whole (officers, professional privates,
of inflation, pricing etc. has remained is misappropriated on all levels for pri- as to how such a tremendous and rap- cording to estimates in the public, how- conscripts) has a grave problem with >
SUOMEN SOTILAS SUOMEN SOTILAS
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recruiting, resulting in low quality and
motivation. This is yet another factor
that works to slow development, and
especially any qualitative reforms.
Social problems remain
There are presently 120 000 officers’
families without housing. For almost a
decade the number was even slightly
higher, but in the past couple of years
10 000 to 15 000 have been provided
housing. The ongoing reform inevi-
Nothing works, but …
ALL CAN BE
tably means a substantial increase in
the throngs of dissatisfied homeless
ex-army personnel. For example, by
ARRANGED
the end of 2009 almost 30 000 officers
who have reached the lowest pension with cuts to the absolute numbers of
age will have been released, uncondi- staff, garrisons, bases, and equipment.
tionally. About half do not presently New technological solutions capable of
have a home, but the Russian law stip- delivering a sea-change in convention-
ulates that all released personnel must BY JUKK A HELLBERG, COLONEL (RE T ) al weaponry remain in the distant future
be guaranteed housing. The number – and with the current resourcing they
of previously released officers with might be altogether beyond the horizon.
T
families still without proper housing For this reason Russia’s nuclear deter-
is staggering, at least 200 000. In ad- he development of Russia’s Going outside the armed forc- rent retains a critical role, also evident in
dition, there are approximately 34 000 military potential is, to put es, also the defense industry is in a how funding is focused. Even the nucle-
Second World War veterans and fam- it politely, in a transition- real crisis due to lack of investment, ar weapon has not escaped the problem
ily members completely without or al state. Besides the armed bottoming arms exports, and chron- of technological backwardness: it seems
in need of a more suitable home. In forces, the wider prerequi- ic brain drain. The large-scale mass that e.g. completing the Bulava subma-
Western terms this problem alone, but sites for using force interna- production capability has been lost. rine-launched ballistic missile or the
one of many, would be gargantuan. tionally have essentially de- However, Russia’s goals in interna- GLONASS positioning system just does
The Ministry of Defence is con- clined. This is manifested in Russia’s tional politics are essentially un- not seem possible under Russia’s own
stantly liquidating its property and few operations and presence abroad. changed – a great power is a great steam. This is something the Russian
real estate assets, and a part of the pro- For practical reasons, international power and won’t let go. In the world military and technology experts have
ceeds is spent in procuring new hous- military conflict will be avoided by today, a slightly “postponed empow- acknowledged in public, too. By its own
ing. The intent is to acquire 44 000 new all means, and the nation’s resourc- erment” is something even a great account, the Russian Army is once again
apartments in 2009. The personnel’s es, for example the currency reserves power must accept. As to the future, in a fight for survival. And undoubtedly
housing crisis, and to an extent the (over 400 billion dollars) will no long- it should be noted that a state like survive it will, as earlier.
wider social problems, have been tak- er be sacrificed at the altar of foreign Russia may be capable of increas-
en so seriously that the ongoing plan and military policy. With a couple of ing its military potential faster than
actually has a chance of succeeding in small exceptions, the extensive and generally perceived. This is no long-
its most relevant aspects, unlike many free foreign military aid is no longer er possible in complete secrecy and The author, Colonel (ret) Jukka Hell-
previous attempts. Since 2008 there on the agenda. In this regard Russia without reactions abroad, however. berg, 54, has graduated from the Rus-
have been extensive programs to ac- has turned inwards: solving its own In the near future, quality will not sian General Staff Academy in 2001–
quire housing for military personnel, problems first. replace quantity in the Russian Army, 2002. In 1994–1996 and in 2002–2006
all over Russia. The continued lack of he was Finland’s assistant military atta-
housing, poor pay, and other social che and defense attache (military atta-
problems have a grave and chronic ef- che) to Russia and Belarus. He has a long
fect on morale. For subsistence, the and extensive knowledge of Russia, and
personnel may have to turn to crim- …the defense industry is in a real has worked e.g. as an interpreter. Since
inal means, some of which are over- retiring, he has worked for Osint Ltd., a
looked by the superiors and other au- crisis… The large-scale mass Finnish strategic knowledge researcher
thorities all over Russia. focusing on Russia and CIS countries.
production capability has been lost.”
SUOMEN SOTILAS SUOMEN SOTILAS
