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					       Interfacing Risk and
Systems Engineering – Left
   Shift Risk Management
              Incose Conference
              9th November 2007
                      Val Jonas
Agenda

   Basics of Systems Engineering
   The concept of “Left Shift”
   Application to three stages of Systems Engineering
   Conclusions
Systems Engineering

   Systems Engineering consists of the technical and
    management processes used to transform operational
    needs, concepts, and policies into a system
    configuration that optimises the total system design to
    meet cost, schedule and technical performance
    objectives.
Requirements process
Statement of need                                                  Operational use


      Capability                                                     Acceptance
    requirements                                                        tests



            User                                                   User
        requirements                                               tests
                                        Customer
                                        Supplier
                 System                                   System
               specification                               tests
                                    Customer
                                    Supplier
                        Subsystem                  Subsystem
                       specifications                tests
     Traceability and Compliance
      Statement of need                                                     Operational use

satisfies                                validating the User
              Capability                                                      Acceptance
            requirements                                                         tests

       satisfies
                                          verifying the system
                    User                                                    User
                requirements                                                tests

              satisfies                qualifying the subsystems
                         System                                    System
                       specification                                tests

                     satisfies          qualifying components
                                Subsystem                  Subsystem
                               specifications                tests
                             Emergence as problems



     No. of
 Problem causes
   Established
                   Tackled as potential problems
Cost of Recovery
Left shift during 3 stages

   Understand context
   Create the baseline
       requirements
       acceptance criteria

   Manage change
 Stage 1 - Understand context
                        Portfolio Analysis
             Economic, environment, market influences

                 Statement of need                                     Operational use



                      Capability                                        Acceptance
                                                                           tests
                                                                                         Business
                    requirements
    Options
considerations              User                                       User
                                                                                         benefits
                        requirements                                   tests




                                System                        System
                              specification                    tests




                                        Subsystem      Subsystem
                                       specification     tests
Case study: Rail industry
Requirement: increased passenger capacity
                              Portfolio analysis
                         Overlap with Technical Upgrade Programme


             Economic, environment, market influences
                            GDP
                            Investment / financing environment
                            Evolving stakeholder expectations
                            Competitors
                            Change of London Mayor


       Options analysis                                           Benefits case
 1.   More seats (added safety requirements)                     Options comparison
 2.   Longer trains (longer platforms)                           Schedule, budget,
 3.   Double-decker trains (taller tunnels)                          resources
 4.   High speed trains (upgraded track)                         Procurement strategy
                                                                 Lease value and life
                                                                 Reputation / image
 Stage 2 – Create the baseline
                           Requirements & Acceptance Criteria
  Identify risks
     against                                                                                                       Identify risks
  requirements               Statement of need                                                   Operational use
                                                                                                                   to achieving
         &                                                            Risk                                          compliance
develop mitigation                 Capability
                                                                    and Action
                                                                                                  Acceptance
    strategies                   requirements                        Register                        tests




                                         User                                                    User
                                     requirements                                                tests




                                             System                                     System
       Identify                            specification                                 tests
     sub-system
 requirements risk
   (in lower level      Supplier 1                   Subsystem                   Subsystem
                                                                                   tests
   risk registers)
                                                    specification
                           Risk
                     Supplier 2
                         Register
                       Risk
                      Register
Case study: Utilities
Requirement: National infrastructure upgrade
High level risks to achieving requirements           Acceptance risks
Difficulty gaining stakeholder agreement     New health & safety legislation
Long-winded ministerial approval process     Related disaster
Need for public consultations                Influence of regulatory review
Change of government / general election      New leases non-compliant




 Low level risks to achieving requirements    Sub-system Acceptance risks
New technology unavailable                   System platform incompatibility
Failure to achieve wayleave consent          Obsolete technology
Raw materials not availabie                  Failure to reach reliability targets
Legacy platform restricts design options     Insufficient trials
Stage 3 – Manage Change
Case study: UK MoD

   Manage scope creep
       Write requirements in sufficient detail
       Enforce rigorous change and configuration control
   Evaluate potential change in advance
       Traceability (Doors)
       Risk assessment (Predict! and ARM) & risk analysis (Predict!)
   Beware of opportunities – they can bite!
                             Emergence as problems



     No. of
 Problem causes
   Established
                   Tackled as potential problems
Cost of Recovery
Thank you

				
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