Docstoc

Sarah Siwek

Document Sample
Sarah Siwek Powered By Docstoc
					    Climate Change
   Information, Challenges,
Strategies, & Opportunities for
        Transportation
             November 11, 2009
   PRESENTATION for Wilbur Smith Associates
       Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.
               Presentation Summary
• Overview of climate change
  change
• Impacts on transportation
  agencies
• Strategies for DOTs/MPOs
  to reduce emissions
• Importance of Adaptation
• NEPA – Related Issues
• Influencing national and
  state policy development on
  climate change
• Business Opportunities
                     Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.   2
               Sources of GHG emissions

Transportation = 28%
of U.S. GHG
     17

                  37

18




          28     Industrial
                 Transportation
                 Commercial
                 Residential


                       Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.   3
 How much GHG reduction is needed?

• We are past the point of halting climate
  change – the climate is already changing
  and temperatures will continue to rise, even
  if we make drastic GHG reductions.
• To avoid the most severe impacts of climate
  change, we need substantial reductions (60-
  80% below 1990 GHG by 2050).
• GHGs are cumulative, with a long half life
  (100 years).
• The longer we wait to make reductions, the
  deeper future cuts will have to be.
              Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.   4
       What targets have been set?
• Scientists recommend 60-80% GHG
  reduction below 1990 level by 2050
• Many states and countries have adopted
  targets in this range
• President Obama’s budget: 80% GHG
  reduction below 2005 by 2050
• Waxman-Markey bill: 17% below 2005 by
  2020 and 83% below 2005 by 2050
• Boxer-Kerry bill: 20% below 2005 by 2020 and
  80% below 2005 by 2050
              Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.   5
 State Climate Plans – Transportation
  Elements Vary All Across the Map
                            Low     Smart
State   Year       Vehicle Carbon Growth and Other
                            Fuels   Transit
 MN     2025          15%             35%          25%   25%
 NC     2020          35%             12%          38%   15%
 SC     2020          14%             55%          29%   1%
 CT     2020          51%             38%          8%    2%
 ME     2020          53%             25%          21%   1%
 MD     2025          24%             12%          45%   20%
 NY     2020          59%             11%          27%   4%
 PA     2025          45%             36%          18%   0%
 RI     2020          46%             10%          31%   14%
 VT     2028          21%             14%          49%   17%
               Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.               6
   Vehicle/Fuel Improvements Will be the
  Dominant Source of GHG Reductions for
                   LDVs

• 50% cut in GHG/mile is feasible from conventional
  technologies and biofuels by 2020-2030
• Compare these GHG rates in U.S. and Europe:
     380 grams/mile      2009 in the U.S.
     250 grams/mile      2016 under new Obama standard
     256 grams/mile      2007 actual in the E.U.
     209 grams/mile      2012 under E.U. regulation
     153 grams/mile      2020 under E.U. regulation
• New technologies and fuels hold promise of much
  deeper reductions
                      Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.   7
                                                     But Technology/Fuel Changes Alone
                                                              Are Not Enough
1% Annual VMT Growth + 100 mpgge LDV Fleet + 10%
  Operational Efficiency = 74% GHG Reduction by 2050 for
  LDVs                                            1600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Reducing VMT growth (smart
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             growth, transit, carpooling,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             vanpooling, walking, TDM, and
                                                  1400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       pricing-related strategies) to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             +1.0% annual.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             System/vehicle operational
  U.S. Light Duty Transportation CO2e Emissions




                                                  1200                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       efficiency (speed limit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             reductions/enforcement,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ecodriving, smoothing out traffic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             flow, proper tires and inflation,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             removing bottlenecks, etc.)
                                                  1000
               (Million Metric Tons)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Highest LDV CO2e Emissions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Reductions (79% Reduction
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             CO2e/Vehicle Mile) by 2050

                                                   800


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Light duty fleet GHG emissions

                                                   600




                                                   400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       GHG Goal 70% Reduction from
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2005



                                                   200




                                                     0
                                                         2005
                                                                2006
                                                                       2007
                                                                              2008
                                                                                     2009
                                                                                            2010
                                                                                                   2011
                                                                                                          2012
                                                                                                                 2013
                                                                                                                        2014
                                                                                                                               2015
                                                                                                                                      2016
                                                                                                                                      2017
                                                                                                                                             2018
                                                                                                                                                    2019
                                                                                                                                                           2020
                                                                                                                                                                  2021
                                                                                                                                                                         2022
                                                                                                                                                                                2023
                                                                                                                                                                                       2024
                                                                                                                                                                                              2025
                                                                                                                                                                                                     2026
                                                                                                                                                                                                            2027
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2028
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2029
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2030
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2031
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2032
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2033
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2034
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2035
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2036
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2037
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2038
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2039
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2040
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2041
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2042
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2043
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2044
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2045
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2046
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2047
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2048
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2049
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2050
                                                                                                                                                                  Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.                                                                                                                                                                                                              8
            Transportation Strategies

   Five Groups                       Examples
1. Vehicle efficiency                • Higher CAFÉ standards
                                       (380 gm/mile to 250
2. Low-carbon fuels                    gm/mile 2016)
3. VMT Reductions                    • CA’s low carbon fuel
   (including land use)                standard
4. Vehicle/System                    • Less travel, could be in
   Operations                          part due to land use
                                       changes
5. Construction,
   Maintenance, and                  • Signalization, ITS, Eco-
                                       driving
   Agency Operations
                                     • Materials, maintenance
                                       practices
                   Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.              9
              Freight GHG Strategies in
              State Climate Action Plans
•   Anti-idling programs                  •   Incentives to retire older trucks
•   Truck stop electrification            •   Truck and equipment retrofits
•   Speed limit enforcement               •   Freight logistics improvements
•   Freight villages/consolidation        •   Shifting freight from truck to rail
    centers                               •   Hybrid power trucks
•   Feeder barge container service        •   Low-viscosity lubricants
                                          •   Single wide-base tires
•   Traffic flow improvements
                                          •   Automatic tire inflation systems
•   Pre-clearances at scale
                                          •   “Black carbon” control
    houses                                    technologies
•   Truck driver training
•   EPA SmartWay up-grade kits            Detailed info available in
    & loans                               NCHRP 20-24(59), Appendix C


                        Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.                      10
    Transportation Agencies Should Plan
               for Adaptation
• Sea level rise & storm surges
   – Destruction of bridges
   – Erosion & permanent
     inundation of roads
   – Disruption of evacuation
     routes & road network
   – Bridge clearance
     limitations
• Other types of impacts
   – Increased flooding
   – Pavement and rail
     buckling
   – Increased flooding
   – More severe inland storms
   – Increased maintenance
                           Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.                                                     11
                 Source: http://mceer.buffalo.edu/research/Reconnaissance/Katrina8-28-05/05BiloxiBay1/09lg.jpg
           Gulf Coast Study on Climate Change
         – Highways and Relative Sea Level Rise




                             Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.   12
Source: Mike Savonis, FHWA
    Gulf Coast Study on Climate Change – Freight
     Handling Ports Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise




                             Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.   13
Source: Mike Savonis, FHWA
    NEPA and climate change analysis for
          transportation projects
• No specific Federal NEPA requirements – yet.
• Earlier CEQ guidance was repealed.
• Several states require climate analysis in state environmental
  documents (CA, WA, NY).
• In CA, a threshold is being established for required analysis.
• Litigation likely, even though GHG differences tiny.
• Example: For 100-mile highway/transit corridor on CO I-70, the
  largest GHG difference among 13 alternatives was 0.00102% of
  CO’s GHG in 2020.
• NEPA could consider (a) GHG impacts, (b) future climate adaptation
  issues for project, (c) mitigation during construction.



                      Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.           14
         Court Rulings on NEPA/GHG
3 cases overturned FONSI/EA/EIS for lack
  of climate analysis:
  – Center for Biological Diversity et al. v. NHTSA
  – Mid States Coalition for Progress v. Surface Transportation
    Board
  – Border Power Plan Working Group v. DOE
4 cases upheld lack of climate analysis or
  sufficiency of analysis:
  – Audubon v. DOT, 2007
  – Friends of the Earth v. Mosbacher, 2007
  – Association of Public Agency Customers, Inc. v. Bonneville
    Power Admin, 1997
  – Mayo Foundation v. Surface Transportation Board, 2006

                     Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.            15
                    Federal Legislation

• H.R. 2454 Waxman-Markey - Clean Energy and Security
  Act of 2009

   – Section 222. Greenhouse Gas emissions reduction through
     Transportation Efficiency


• S. 1733 Boxer-Kerry - Clean Energy Jobs and American
  Power Act

   – Greenhouse Gas Reductions through Transportation Efficiency
     (Section 112)


                     Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.             16
Both Bills Implement Transportation Requirements
  through Statewide and Metropolitan Planning

  – Set national goals
  – Standardized emissions models and methods
  – Statewide targets/MPO targets
  – Assessment of emissions from strategies (projects)
  – Assessment of emissions from state and MPO plans
  – Assessment of transportation-related GHG emissions
    (inventories)
  – Establishment of baseline transportation emissions



                 Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.   17
  Clean Air Act -- EPA Proposed Finding of
              “Endangerment”
• EPA may act to regulate GHG under existing Clean Air
  Act (CAA)
• April 2009 EPA proposal:
   – Atmospheric concentrations of GHG “endanger”
      public health and welfare (per CAA section 202(a))
   – Emissions of GHG from new motor vehicles
      “contribute to” air pollution which is endangering
      public health and welfare
• If EPA finalizes this proposal, EPA is obligated to
  regulate GHG (e.g., GHG standards for autos)
• GHG conformity possible, but not likely
                   Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.       18
    Federal Legislation -- Transportation Bill

• Timing of reauthorization uncertain
• Six months/eighteen months
• Funding challenges are major policy issue
• We can anticipate transportation bill to integrate any GCC
  requirements
• Key climate change issues in transportation legislation include:
   – Modal funding and policy emphases to support GHG goals
   – Adaptation planning requirements and/or funding
   – Explicit or implicit VMT reduction goals
   – Compact land use planning incentives
   – GHG reduction targets, performance measures
   – GHG planning and/or conformity requirements
   – NEPA-GHG requirements

                        Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.            19
              Business Opportunities

• State DOTs
  –   Planning requirements, inventories, baseline
  –   Adaptation planning
  –   Operational efficiencies
  –   Materials, maintenance practices
  –   Project-level NEPA-related requirements
• MPOs
  – Planning requirements
  – Modeling improvements
  – Transit, non-motorized, eco-driving, land use

                    Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.   20
               Contact Information

• Questions?
• Sarah Siwek
  – Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.
  – ssiwek@aol.com
  – 310-417-6670 x 224


• THANK YOU!


                  Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc.   21