2008-11-imtc-sfo.ppt - Nerd Fever

					1
The Past, Present, and Future
of Video Telecommunication
or,

The 3% Solution
                                Dave Lindbergh

                                IMTC Fall Forum
                                 November 2008




                                                  2
 Contents


          Hooke Labs & how we use video
          Past
            – How we got to this point

          Present
            –   Successful niches for video
            –   Why no mass-market adoption of video?
            –   False reasons
            –   User expectations  Correct reasons (my opinion)

          Future
            – How to succeed: The 3% Solution

The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   3
 Thesis


          Video telecom is in < 1% of conference rooms
            – ~ 0% of homes

          Mass acceptance has never occurred
            – Despite huge consumer enthusiasm for video
            – Despite good solutions to traditional problems

          Because the quality of experience falls short
            – The “sense of being there” is disappointing

          This will change
            – Telepresence market is the lever
            – Gradual improvements will lead to the mass-market

The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   4
              Hooke’s use of video




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   5
 Hooke Laboratories


     Start-up biotech CRO & manufacturer
     Typical CRO contract $5000 to $50,000
     Customers all over the world
       –   USA, Canada
       –   Europe
       –   Asia
       –   South America




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   6
 Hooke is well-equipped for video


          Co-founder w/14 years in video conferencing
          Broadband Internet connection
          Skype + webcams
          Polycom VSX 7000 (H.323, SIP, H.320)




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   7
 How often does Hooke use video?




          Never
            – Not once




          Why not? And what can be done about that?
            – That is what this talk is about

The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   8
                       How we got here




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   9
 Video telephony system


          18 frames/second
          Progressive scan
          Plasma display
          Pixel aspect ratio 3:2
          Image quality described as “excellent”
          End-to-end latency 1 millisecond (great!)



The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   10
 7 April 1927 – Bell Labs




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   11
 New York – Washington DC




   Walter Gifford                                                 Herbert Hoover
   President, AT&T                                                US Sec’y of Commerce
   New York                                                       Washington DC
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   12
 “Television” = Telephone + Vision


          50x50 pixel display, neon bulbs
          Camera: Arc lamp beam, mechanical scanning
          Optional projection to 2x3 feet
            – But “results were not so good”



                  Edna Mae Horner
                                        Operator
       Chesapeake and Potomac
            Telephone Company
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   13
   AT&T Picturephone



1957 “Experimental Model”




  The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   14
 Early 1960s

                                                                                            Mirror




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   15
 AT&T was very serious

          Plenty of smart business people!




                                  1964


The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   16
 Framing




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   17
 AT&T was not alone


     Lots of investment, market research, usability studies…




             NTT, 1968                                         Philips, 1974

The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   18
 AT&T quietly gave up in the early 1970s




          Did it “cost too much”?
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   19
 1980s – Still image picture phones


          Mid-1980s: Japanese consumer electronic
          firms introduced still-image picture phones
            –   Used existing regular analog phone line
            –   POTS modem
            –   ~ 5 seconds to send 1 black & white frame
            –   No audio during picture transmission
            –   ~$200 each

          Very few takers




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   20
 1992 – AT&T Videophone 2500


“Predicting that 10 years from now
video phones will be as popular as
cordless phones and fax machines,
last week AT&T introduced the first
full-color motion video phone that
operates over regular phone lines…”
 – Newsweek, January 20, 1992
10 frames/second, $1500
Marconi, others, had similar products



The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   21
 Many more videophones since then


  They all worked
  Their makers all
  expected
  commercial success
  And why not?
   – Consumers are
     consistently excited
     at the idea of video
     telecommunication

                                                 Siemens T-View (H.320 ISDN) ~ 1997
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   22
 Maybe the technology wasn’t ready


          Too expensive
          Poor video quality
          Not enough bandwidth
          Maybe the time is finally right
            – Maybe your company is thinking about
              introducing a video phone
            – Maybe you think now is the time

          If so…
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   23
 …you are not alone




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   24
 Others have thought so, too




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   25
 Really, more than you might think




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   26
 ...a lot more




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   27
 …and more…




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   28
 …and more.




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   29
 Today:


          Video phones are in every home
          and every office


          Well, no


          Why not???
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   30
 People want video communication


          Witness all the attempts
          Just talk to potential users – lots of excitement
          But they don’t buy or use video when offered
            – Except for narrow niche applications

          For some reason people are disappointed
            – We need to understand why before we can fix this




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   31
                         Progress so far




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   32
 A successful, but small, industry


      Video conferencing
       – ~$2B/year (generously)
       – Doesn’t seem to be growing much

      Telepresence
       – ~$100M/year(?), growing fast
       – Expense limits market size
              (Wainhouse says < $1B)




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   33
 Video telecommunication today


          Video conferencing offered since mid-1980s
            – More than 20 years

          More successful than video phones
          Why?
            –   High-value application
            –   Relatively big picture, high resolution
            –   Less restriction on where people are in the frame
            –   More “like being there” than video phones
            –   At work – people are paid to use it

          But…
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   34
                                                                                                     Source:
                                                                              http://www.emarketer.com/
                                                                                Article.aspx?id=1006610
                                                                                            October 14, 2008




      After 20+ years, video is in < 1% of conference rooms
       – Lots of room for growth 
       – Similar problems as stopped video telephony 

The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008             35
People want visual communication

                                      So – Why?



The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   36
 Challenges today –
 are these the problem?

          Connectivity issues
            – Incompatible protocols & standards
            – NATs and firewalls
            – Network fragmentation
                  • IP, ISDN, POTS, 3G, 4G…

            – No public/automatic gateways and bridges

          Too much latency
            – And lots of denial about it; doesn’t help


The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   37
 Videophones didn’t have connectivity
 problems (mostly)


          Early videophones solved connectivity
            – Offered & operated by carriers
            – Simple analog devices

          Many videophones were utterly reliable
            – POTS models used voice network (w/modems)

          Reliability was not the problem
          Connectivity was not the problem



The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   38
 Why no mass adoption – is it cost?


          AT&T spent $billions – lots of market research
            – Best and brightest people in the world
            – They were sure it would sell

          Many free services: PC + $15 webcam
            – Skype, AIM, Yahoo, MS Messenger, NetMeeting…

          Many video phones were/are offered by
          carriers with subsidies
            – Phones under $300 common
            – Same usage fees as voice calls

          Probably not cost
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   39
 Is it ease of use?


          AT&T Picturephone was a telephone
            – Pick up phone, dial number

          Most videophones are equally easy to use
          Probably not ease of use




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   40
 Is it video quality? Latency?


          Many products have very good video quality
            – Even bad pictures look good on small displays
            – 1960s analog phones had good quality
          Modern VC systems have excellent video
          quality, large displays, but still haven’t enjoyed
          mass adoption
          Phones of the 1960s and 1970s were analog
            – No extra latency
          Probably not these, either
            – All these things are very important – necessary
            – But they don’t seem to be sufficient

The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   41
 The mass adoption barrier


          Video conferencing is a successful niche
            – But very far from mass adoption (< 1%)

          Video telephony hasn’t succeeded yet
            – Yet, clearly there is a market desire!

          Current issues do not explain past failures
            – Standards, connectivity were solved for videophones
            – Latency was not a problem in the analog world

          Then what is required for success?
            – Why have users not yet embraced video telephony?


The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   42
 Fiction creates expectations




                         Metropolis (Fritz Lang, 1926)
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   43
 Fiction reflects expectations

                                                                                        Where
                                                                                        are the
                                                                                        cameras?
                                                                                        This is
                                                                                        impossible
                                                                                        with today’s
                                                                                        video
                                                                                        But it is
                                                                                        expected

                 The Jetsons (Hanna-Barbera, 1962)
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008       44
 Perfect framing, perfect lighting




                         Star Trek (Paramount, 1967)
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   45
 Nobody is nervous “on camera”

          Actors look straight into the camera
          Professional cinematography / videography
          Multiple camera positions & zooms
          Directors choose the best shots




     2001: A Space Odyssey (Stanley Kubrick, 1968)
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   46
 Real video is not like fictional video




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   47
 What will it take for mass adoption?


          More than just:
            –   Cost
            –   Latency
            –   Reliability
            –   Connectivity
            –   Resolution
            –   Picture size
            –   Ease of use

          These are all necessary, but not sufficient


The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   48
  What is the problem, then?




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   49
 Quality of Experience

          The “sense of being there” is disappointing
           – At least, weaker than people expect & want

          VC is not enough like being in the same place
           –   Eye contact
           –   Peripheral vision
           –   Depth perception
           –   Awareness of framing
           –   Perceived distance to other people
           –   Ability to interrupt
           – Certainly other things, too


The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   50
 Video is much harder than it seems

          Video is not “just another channel”
           – Text, audio, video, right? Wrong.

          Far-end can’t tell where you put the keyboard
          Microphone location is not very important
          The camera location matters
           –   Each person has a different viewpoint
           –   People direct their gaze at each other
           –   People are aware when others look at them
           –   Viewpoints matter


The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   51
 George Jetson & Mr. Spacely

  Study this image
  It illustrates a lot
  about what
  consumers expect
  from video
  telecommunication




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   52
 George Jetson & Mr. Spacely

  Mr. Spacely is much
  larger than Jetson
  That is because Mr.
  Spacely is the boss




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   53
 George Jetson & Mr. Spacely

  Jetson is not
  thinking about
  whether he’s still
  in the frame
  Even though he’s
  jumped out of his
  seat




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   54
 George Jetson & Mr. Spacely

  Mr. Spacely
  appears very
  close to Jetson
    – A confrontational
      distance
    – Not at the opposite
      end of a room

  This is why he’s
  jumped out of his
  seat

The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   55
 George Jetson & Mr. Spacely

  Mr. Spacely’s image
  is above Jetson
  This, also, is
  because Spacely
  is the boss




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   56
 George Jetson & Mr. Spacely

  We expect that
  Spacely has
  peripheral vision
    – Spacely could tell
      if we (the viewer)
      were in the room

  We feel Spacely
  could look at us if
  he wanted to


The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   57
 George Jetson & Mr. Spacely

  We can tell who
  Mr. Spacely is
  looking at
  Jetson and Spacely
  have eye contact




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   58
 George Jetson & Mr. Spacely

  But we, the viewer,
  do not have eye
  contact with either
  of them
  Because they are
  looking at each
  other, not us
  If we were in the
  room, this would
  feel natural
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   59
 George Jetson & Mr. Spacely

  The artist knows all
  this without being
  told
  But video engineers
  do not




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   60
 Video viewpoints & perspectives

    Image size matters
    Display distance matters
     – These depend on each other
     – And on type of conversation

    Camera height matters
     – Face above camera = Dominant
                                                                          1984 (Apple Computer, 1984)
            • like Mr. Spacely
            • Judges and kings sit up high

    There is no single “right” answer
     – People can either stand or sit
     – Multiple viewers in different
       positions

                                                                    V for Vendetta (James McTeigue, 2006)
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008        61
 Framing

          Mother (Albert Brooks, 1996)
            – Rob Morrow and Debbie Reynolds on videophone

          In film & TV, directors choose the right shot
            – And change shots
            – To focus attention on what is important

          Consciousness of framing can be distracting
          Loose enough for freedom of movement
          Enough detail & size to see faces clearly
            – Difficult to achieve both at the same time
            – Main achievement of today’s “telepresence” systems

The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   62
 Perceived interpersonal distance


          Critical for natural-feeling conversation
          Controlled by size and distance of image
          “Right” distance varies by type of conversation
            – Intimate, professional, adversarial, etc.
            – Some cultural dependence




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   63
 More stuff


 Peripheral vision
   –   Who is there
   –   Who is looking at us
   –   Who is paying attention
   –   Who is trying to interrupt

 Side conversations
 Depth perception
   – Focus
   – Parallax



The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   64
 Why is this so complicated?


          Voice telephony doesn’t have these problems
            – So why does adding video make things worse?

          Because people are evolved to talk in the dark
            – This is why using the telephone feels natural

          Because video is not “just another channel”
            – But that’s how engineers usually think about it
            – It’s something very different

          The visual communications experience is
          expected to feel more natural and intuitive

The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   65
                        The 3% Solution




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   66
What the market really wants:
Telepresence

          The real thing – “like being there”
          Today’s telepresence is a big improvement
           – Picture size and quality are clearly sufficient
           – Peripheral vision & framing are solved
           – High expense limits market size

          Mass acceptance requires high Quality of
          Experience at an affordable cost
          Under 1% of the potential market is served now
           – Even small improvements can make a big difference
           – Start by getting to 3%

The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   67
 Telepresence = Innovation Opportunity


          Telepresence market is not as cost sensitive
           – But very interested in real improvements
           – Tech will trickle down to lower-cost systems later

          It doesn’t have to be perfect – just a little better
           – Remember, 3% is the goal (!)

          How to get there? Prototype many ideas
           –   Tinker, experiment … try out lots of ideas
           –   We all think our untested ideas will work!
           –   Yet most new ideas fail
           –   So build them & test them – cheaply
           –   Prototypes, not products
The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   68
 Products vs. Prototypes

                    Products                                             Prototypes
          Few                                                      Many
          Usable by anyone                                         Usable by builders only
          Reliable                                                 Clunky
          Interoperable                                            Unique
          Cheap in volume                                          Expensive (build just 2)
          Automated with software                                  Run manually by people

          Take risks, but ones you can afford – prototypes
            – Most new ideas are no good
            – If it’s not risky, it’s not innovation



The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   69
 Example – CNN “hologram”, 2008-11-04


          Not really a hologram
          I don’t claim this is practical
          Shows only that more is possible than we are
          accustomed to

                                                      (clip)

          Maybe better not to ask how it works
            – Use it as an inspiration – how can you make it work?


The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   70
 Parting advice

                          Do                                                   Don’t
          Try something new                                       Repeat past failures
          Seek improvement                                        Despair at imperfection
          Tinker                                                  Theorize
          Prototype                                               Commit to untried ideas
          Use off-the-shelf tech                                  Push existing envelope
          Listen to end-users                                     Listen to customers
          Lead the market                                         Follow the competition
          Focus on un-served 99%                                  Focus on existing 1%

          Someone will get there & collect the pot of gold
            – Why not you?

The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   71
                                  Thank you!




The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008   72

				
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