Future

							The Future‟s so Bright You
  Gotta Wear Shades!
         Scott Plummer
        Lesley University
     splummer@panesu.org
 Visionary Statements from the
              Past
 What   can be more palpably absurd than
  the prospect held out of locomotives
  traveling twice as fast as stagecoaches?
  The Quarterly Review, England (1825)
 This „telephone‟ has too many
  shortcomings to be seriously considered
  as a means of communication. The
  device is inherently of no value. Western
  Union internal memo (1876)
             Vision cont.‟
 The horse is here to stay but the automobile is
  only a novelty, a fad, a passing
  fancy…President of the Michigan Savings
  Bank advising Horace Racham (Henry Ford‟s
  lawyer) not to invest in Ford Motor Co. (1903)
 While television may be theoretically feasible,
  commercially & financially, I consider it an
  impossibility, a development of which we need
  waste little time dreaming. Lee DeForest,
  American Radio Pioneer (1926)
              Vision cont.‟
 There   is not the slightest indication that
  nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It
  would mean that the atom would have to
  be shattered at will. Albert Einstein (1932)
 I think there is a world market for maybe
  five computers. Thomas Watson,
  Chairman of IBM (1943)
              Vision cont.‟
 Computers    in the future may have only
  1000 vacuum tubes and weigh perhaps
  1.5 tons. Popular Mechanics (1949)
 When shown the first microchip, an
  engineer from IBM‟s Advanced Computing
  System Division commented, “But what is
  it good for? (1969)
              Vision cont.‟
 There  is no reason for any individual to
  have a computer in their home. Ken
  Olsen, President and founder Digital
  Equipment Corp (1977)
 I see no advantage to the graphical user
  interface. Bill Gates (1984)
          Moore‟s Law
Year       1979     1984

RAM        16K      128K

Storage    128K     400K

Speed      2 Mhz    10 Mhz

Cost       $5000    $3900
       Moore‟s Law cont.‟


Year       2000      2006       2010

RAM        128 MEG   2 Gig      16 Gig
                     (2048)     (16,384)
Hard Drive 20 Gig    320 Gig    2 Terabyte
                                (2,560)
Speed      800 Mhz   12 Ghz     64 Ghz
                     (12,800)   (102,400)
Cost       $3000     $3000      $3000
        Ponder the Following
 How has the past growth in computing
  speed, memory, etc. changed our world?
 How will future exponential growth change
  education?
     What‟s our vision like…
 Lacks focus
 Educentric
 Wait and see
Future Trends…
Trends cont.‟
Trends cont.‟
   Size
Comparison
Processor or
   CPU
4004 Processor
Pentium II
Processor
              Trends…
 Smaller
 Faster
 Connected
         Other Technologies
 Intelligent Highways
 Buckyballs
 Smart Computers
 Intelligent Networks
 Smart Robots
 Space Bases
 Nanotechnology
              Tech in Schools
   Instant Message Devices
   Cell Phone Implants
   Displays that track your movement
   EV-DO Internet Access
   Reusable “Paper”
   Multi-user interactive surface
   Pocket laptop
   Robot replicator
   i-Pad