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12. Future predictions for rural resource management using the delphi technique
[Abstract] According to the prediction using the Delphi technique, the agricultural land area will
decrease from 4.74 million ha to 4.13 million ha in 2024. 30% of the total length of agricultural
canals (400,000 km) will face management difficulties. The impacts will include an increase in
flood damage due to cultivation abandonment, an increase in inundation damage due to difficulties
in the management of agricultural canals, etc.
[Keywords] Delphi technique, rural resource management, cultivation abandonment, difficulties
in the management of agricultural canals
[Charge] Laboratory of Regional Planning and the Laboratory of Project Evaluation, Department
of Rural Planning, National Institute for Rural Engineering
[Telephone number and e-mail address] TEL: 029-838-7548, e-mail: fukuyo@affrc.go.jp
[Category] Rural Engineering
[Class] Technology and administration, dissemination
[Background and objectives]
Resource conservation measures will be fully implemented from FY 2007. The introduction of the
measures was driven by urgent concerns that the traditional resource management function of rural
communities will deteriorate, that rural resources (especially agricultural lands and agricultural
canals) will be inappropriately managed under the existing measures and that this deterioration will
severely affect the stable supply of food and the manifestation of the multi-functionality of
agriculture. In order to effectively implement the new measures, it is necessary to comprehensively
understand at the national level what will happen to the management of rural resources such as
agricultural lands and agricultural canals in the future if the present measures continue to be
implemented, and how the difficulties in resource management would affect agriculture. Therefore,
we produced predictions for rural resource management and an impact assessment of the future
situation using the Delphi technique, where experts’ opinions are collected by asking the same
questions several times.
[Contents and characteristics of the results]
1. We identified doctors and professional engineers from the members of the Japanese Society of
Irrigation, Drainage and Reclamation Engineering (JSIDRE) who are experts in rural resource
management, and made predictions and impact assessments on rural resource management
(Table 1). We repeated the investigation twice. In the second investigation, we attached the
results (the median, the 25 percentile and the 75 percentile) of the first investigation as
reference material.
2. 20 years from now (2024), the agricultural land area will decrease from 4.74 million ha to 4.13
million ha (a decrease of 13%). The number of farm households will also decrease from 3.12
million households to 2.28 million households and so the agricultural land area per household
will increase from 1.5 ha/household to 1.8 ha/household (Table 2).
3. 120,000 km of agricultural canals, which is 30% of the total length of 400,000 km, will face
management difficulties (Table 2).
4. The most serious concern among the impacts of “increased cultivation abandonment land” is
“the occurrence of landslides and flood damage” due to “collapsing levees and slopes” (Fig. 1).
5. The main direct impacts of “increasing canals with management difficulties” include
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“accumulating earth, sand and twigs and disturbed water flow for irrigation and drainage” and
“overgrown weeds.” “Accumulating earth, sand and twigs and disturbed water flow for
irrigation and drainage” will cause “increasing inundation damage during torrential rain” as
well as “blocked irrigation and drainage, unstable agricultural production.” “Overgrown
weeds” will lead to a “deteriorating landscape” and the “occurrence of damage caused by
disease and insect pests” (Fig. 2).
[Utilization of the results and points to be considered]
1. The Delphi technique enables relatively easy prediction and evaluation even for a study area
which does not have accumulated statistical data.
2. The prediction for the price of rice is 15,000 yen per bag (Table 2). It is estimated that there
will be no significant fall in the price when compared with the present level (16,000 yen in
2004). Therefore, the premise of the predictions in this study is that there will be no significant
drop in the price of rice.
[Specific data]
Table 1 Attributes of the respondents Table 2 The Situation of Rural Resource Management in 20 Years Time
The
The first second The
time % time %
The first
Present second
(N=788) (N=730) prediction
prediction
29 years old or
0 0 Agricultural land area (10,000 ha) 474 421 413
younger
30 to 39 years old 5 3 Elongation of the canals which will face
40 to 49 years old 19 16 management difficulty (10,000 km)
- 12 12
50 to 59 years old 34 35
Age
60 to 69 years old 28 30
Accumulation rate of agricultural land (%) 47 61 61
70 years old or The number of farm households (10,000
older
14 16
households)
312 224 228
No response 1 0 The price of rice (1,000 yen) 16 15 15
Total 100 100
Academic 16 13
Self sufficiency rate (%) 40 39.5 39.5
Researcher 5 5 The number of settlements (1,000
settlements)
135 99 96
Administrative
16 15
officer Note: The predicted values are the medians.
Occupation
Staff of an
7 8
organization
Staff of a private
43 46
company
Others 11 12
No response 1 1
Total 100 100
Note 1: The first investigation was conducted
in October 2004 and the second
investigation in January 2005.
Note 2: Questionnaires were sent to 1,385
people by post.
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Decrease in the accumulation of agricultural land
農地集積への支障
60.0～
60.0-
Increasing Unstable agricultural production due to damage caused by
獣害が多くなり、農業生産の不安定 50.0～ 59.9
50.0-59.9
abandonment of animals
cultivation land
耕作放棄地の増加 ～ 49.9
-49.9
Decrease in the area planted and the stable supply of food
作付面積の減少、食料の安定供給へ影響
being affected
Difficulties in re-cultivation and the stable supply of food
再耕作の困難、食料安定供給に影響
being affected
Blocked irrigation and drainage, unstable agricultural
Acceleration
加速 灌漑排水への支障、農業生産の不安定
production
Collapsing levees
畦畔・法面の崩壊
and slopes Occurrence of landslides and flood damage
土砂崩壊、洪水被害発生
Decreased amount of recharge of water source
水源かん養量の減少
Overgrown weeds, increase
雑草繁茂、病虫害の増加
in the damage caused by Agricultural land changes to forest land and wasteland,
山林化、原野化、集落崩壊
disease and insect pests collapse of settlements
農薬使用量増大、生態系への悪影響
Increased amount of pesticide use
Adverse effect on the ecosystem
農薬使用量増大、食の安全安心に悪影響
ゴミの不法投棄
Illegal dumping
of waste 景観の悪化 landscapes
Deteriorating
土壌や地下水の汚染
Pollution of soil and
groundwater
Note: These are the mean values when the degrees of impact were evaluated as “large: 100 points,” “medium: 50 points,” “small: 25 points” and
“none: 0 point.”
Fig. 1 Impact of Increasing Abandonment of Cultivation Land
Deterioration of function of
地域用水機能の低下 local irrigation
water
Increasing canals which face
管理困難水路の増加
management difficulty
豪雨時の湛水被害の増加
Increasing inundation damage during torrential rain
Blocked irrigation and drainage, unstable agricultural
Accumulating earth, sand and twigs, disturbed 灌漑排水に支障、農業生産力の不安定化
productivity
土砂小枝の堆積、用排水の流れの悪化
water flow for irrigation and drainage
食の安全安心への悪影響
Adverse effect on food safety and
Overgrown
雑草の繁茂 除草剤による除草の増加
More weeding using herbicides security
weeds
Deteriorating
景観の悪化landscapes
Occurrence of damage 畦畔の脆弱化 levees
Increasingly fragile
病虫害の発生
caused by diseases and
insect pests
Threat to biodiversity
生物多様性への脅威
Deteriorating water
水路の水質悪化
quality in canals
ゴミの投入
Dumping of
waste 作物の収量・品質の低下
Lowered yield and quality of crops
景観悪化 landscapes
Deteriorating
土壌や地下水の汚染
Pollution of soil and
groundwater
70.0～
70.0-
60.0～ 69.9
60.0-69.9
危険個所の増加
Increasing number of hazardous places
50.0～ 59.9
50.0-59.9
40.0～ 49.9
40.0-49.9
Fig. 2 Impact of Increasing Number of Agricultural Canals which ～ 39.9
-39.9
２ 農業水路の保全管理の困難化の影響
図 Face Difficulties in Maintenance
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