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Fleet Numerical Meteorology _amp; Oceanography Center FNMOC Ensemble

VIEWS: 27 PAGES: 20

									              Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center

                                     FNMOC Ensemble Status and Plans
                                                                                              17 May 2010




                    Michael Sestak
                        Meteorologist




Fleet Numerical…
                          Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
                                                             Thanks to:

     • Naval Research Lab scientists working on NOGAPS and
       the ensemble, especially Justin Mclay
     • Steve Klotz, Department of Defense, High Performance
       Computer Modernization Program




Fleet Numerical…
                     Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
                                                                                                       2
                                                                   Overview

     • FNMOC EFS recent update history
     • Current status
           – Current model description
           – Current file transfer status
     • Current skill
     • Planned updates



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                        Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
                                                                                                          3
               Recent Model Update History

     • Feb 20, 2008 – FNMOC external server for NCEP
       receipt of EFS grids
     • Apr 1, 2008 – Ensemble Transform initialization
     • Mar 5, 2009 – FNMOC receiving NCEP WW3 ensemble
     • Sep 23, 2009 – NAVDAS-AR 4D-Var data assimilation
     • Sep 23, 2009 – Deterministic NOGAPS L42, top 0.04 mb
     • Feb 10, 2010 – Banded Ensemble Transform
     • Apr 2, 2010 – 20 members, 384 hr forecast
     • May 19, 2010 – NOGAPS T319L42


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                     Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
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                                              Current Status
  • Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System
    (NOGAPS)
  • Truncate deterministic model from T239L42
  • T119 horizontal (~90 km), 30 levels vertical, top 1 mb
  • 5 Latitude band ensemble transform initialization
  • 6 hr update cycle (4 times per day)
  • Forecasts at 00Z and 12Z
  • Forecast length 384 hr
  • 20 members
  • WaveWatch 3 ensemble driven by surface winds from each
    NOGAPS ensemble member, 20 members, 240 hr forecast

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                   Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
                                                                                                     5
                             Data Transfer Timing
     •    ET begins at +4:16
     •    First 10 NOGAPS members begin +4:22
     •    First grids written to ISIS +4:25
     •    First grids transferred to server for NCEP +4:30
     •    Second 10 NOGAPS members begin +4:51
     •    Last NOGAPS grids written to ISIS +5:26
     •    First 10 WW3 members begin +5:02
     •    Second 10 WW3 members begin +5:22
     •    Last grids transferred to server for NCEP +6:08
     •    Statistics and graphics completed by +6:27
     •    Last grid transferred to NWS gateway +6:30
     •    Last grid transferred to NCEP Operational system +7:20
     •    NCEP begins NAEFS product production +7:30
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                                                                                                                                                                   Goal
                                                                                                                                                                           BFTn




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Data Transfer Status




Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
7
                   Current FNMOC EFS Skill

     • Ensemble Mean Skill
     • Ensemble Skill




Fleet Numerical…
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                                              Recent Ensemble Mean Statistics vs Deterministic Models

                                        Mar-May 2010 120 hr fcst Mid-Latitude 500 mb height AC
                           1

                         0.95

                          0.9

                         0.85
   Anomaly Correlation




                          0.8

                         0.75

                          0.7

                         0.65
                                                             FNMOC EFS                                                                                                Mar-May 2010 120 hr fcst Tropics 850 mb Wind Speed RMSE
                                                                                                                                                               4
                          0.6                                NOGAPS

                         0.55                                GFS                                                                                              3.5
                                                             UKMO
                          0.5                                                                                                                                  3
                                30110

                                          30710

                                                  31310

                                                          31910

                                                                   32510

                                                                           33110

                                                                                   40610

                                                                                           41210

                                                                                                    41810

                                                                                                            42410

                                                                                                                    43010

                                                                                                                            50610

                                                                                                                                    51210



                                                                                                                                            RMS Error (m/s)
                                                                                                                                                              2.5
                                                                                   Date
                                                                                                                                                               2

                                                                                                                                                              1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    FNMOC EFS
                                                                                                                                                               1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    NOGAPS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    GFS
                                                                                                                                                              0.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    UKMO
                                                                                                                                                               0
                                                                                                                                                                    30110

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                                                                                                                                                                                    31310

                                                                                                                                                                                            31910

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                                                                                                                                                                                                            33110

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    40610

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            41210

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     41810

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             42410

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             50610

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     51210
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Date


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                            FNMOC Wave Model Ensemble Scores
                                     Significant Wave Height Brier Score
                            for North Atlantic (10N-70N 100W-15E) , March 2010
                  0.3


                 0.25                                                             > 6 ft

                                                                                  > 12 ft
                  0.2
                                                                                  > 18 ft
   Brier Score




                 0.15


                  0.1


                 0.05                                                                                                                            Significant Wave Height Continuous Rank Probability Score
                                                                                                                                                    for North Atlantic (10N-70N 100W-15E) , March 2010
                   0                                                                                                                    1
                        0   24   48    72      96    120    144       168   192   216       240                                       0.99
                                            Forecast lead time (hr)




                                                                                                  Continuous Rank Probability Score
                                                                                                                                      0.98

                                                                                                                                      0.97

                                                                                                                                      0.96

                                                                                                                                      0.95

                                                                                                                                      0.94

                                                                                                                                      0.93

                                                                                                                                      0.92

                                                                                                                                      0.91

                                                                                                                                       0.9
                                                                                                                                             0       24     48     72     96     120     144      168   192   216   240
                                                                                                                                                                        Forecast Lead Time (hr)

Fleet Numerical…
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                   FNMOC Model Update Plans


     • FNMOC Integration into NAEFS Timeline
     • FNMOC NOGAPS and EFS Update Plans




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                       Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
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Fleet Numerical…
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                          Model Update Future
  • May, 2010 – Deterministic NOGAPS T319L42
  • May-June, 2010 – Improved data transfer technique, 20
    members, 384 hr forecast
  • June, 2010 – Tropical Storm Tracker for EFS
  • July, 2010 – Begin transferring all variables (except fluxes),
    20 members, 384 hour forecast, using GRIB2
  • Sep, 2010 – 9 banded ET initialization and Stochastic Kinetic
    Energy Backscatter in EFS
  • Oct, 2010 – Begin EFS Forecast vs obs verification
  • Jan 2011 – EFS to T159L42 (may wait for SI/SL later in year)
  • 2012 – T239L60 ensemble, T384L60 deterministic

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                   Questions ?




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                   BACK-UP SLIDES




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               Banded Ensemble Transform
     • Previously Ensemble Transform solved over entire globe
     • Perturbations are actually different scale in different
       geographic regions
     • Global ET results in initial perturbations (and early
       ensemble spread) too large in mid-latitudes, too small in
       tropics
     • Currently solving ET separately over 5 latitude bands 90°
       to 60 °south, 60 °to 20 °south, 20 °south to 20 °north,
       20 °to 60 °north and 60 °to 90 °north
     • Scale adjustment (0.3 multiplier) on perturbations in
       tropics applied to improve tropical storm track forecast
     • 9 latitude bands or blocks in latitude and longitude are
       likely even better
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           FNMOC to NCEP NCO Data Transfer Route


     • FNMOC EFS model to internal database (ISIS)
     • ISIS to internal data server via CAGIPS
     • Internal data server to external server via Bulk File
       Transfer (ftp)
     • FNMOC external data server to NWS
       Telecommunications Operations Center (TOC) via wget
       over DATAMS-U
     • TOC to NCEP NCO
     • Improved FNMOC system will be direct from ISIS to
       external data server, controlled by operational run, not
       CAGIPS

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                                                                                                        17
                          NCEP ENSEMBLE: ISIS - CAGIPS Cumulative filecount comparison

               40000
                                              Model runs for second
                       Model runs for first
                                              10 members start          Tau 240
                                                                                    Model runs end       isis      cagips
               35000
                       10 members start

               30000            WW3 & postprocessing
                                begin

               25000
                                        Tau 240
   Filecount




               20000



               15000



               10000



               5000



                   0
                       4:18
                       4:21
                       4:24
                       4:27
                       4:30
                       4:33
                       4:36
                       4:39
                       4:42
                       4:45
                       4:48
                       4:51
                       4:54
                       4:57
                       5:00
                       5:03
                       5:06
                       5:09
                       5:12
                       5:15
                       5:18
                       5:21
                       5:24
                       5:27
                       5:30
                       5:33
                       5:36
                       5:39
                       5:42
                       5:45
                       5:48
                       5:51
                       5:54
                                                                            Time (UTC)
Fleet Numerical…
                                                    Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
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                                                                                Data Transfer Delay
                                                                               NCEP1_00Z Download Rate



                                  600




                                  500




                                  400
       download rate (KBytes/s)




                                  300




                                  200




                                  100




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                                                                                          rate (KB/s)

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