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					The State of
Mississippi’s
Economy


                          March 22, 2007

  Oktibbeha County Leadership Development
                                        Non-Farm Monthly Employment Growth
                      700%                                                             Mississippi Employment Growth
                                                                                       September 1999 - 1,165,900
                                                                                       December 2006 - 1,159,500
                                                                                       - 0.55% growth
                      600%
% of Base Year 1939




                      500%

                                                                                          MS

                      400%


                      300%                                                                                             U.S. Employment Growth
                                                                                            US                         Sept 1999 - 129,867,000
                                                                                                                       Sept 2006 - 137,916,000
                                                                                                                       6.20% growth
                      200%


                      100%
                          40




                                            50




                                                              60




                                                                                70




                                                                                                   80




                                                                                                                90




                                                                                                                                  00
                        19




                                          19




                                                            19




                                                                              19




                                                                                                 19




                                                                                                              19




                                                                                                                                20
                        Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHL calculations
                                         Mississippi Employment By Major Industry, 1990-2005

            400


            350


            300
Thousands




            250


            200


            150
                        1990       1991     1992   1993   1994   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999    2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005


                                         Manufacturing       Trade, Trans portation, and Utilities          Services      Government

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                 Goods Producing Verses Service Producing Jobs in Mississippi
            1000

            900                                                                 Goods             Services

            800

            700

            600
Thousands




            500

            400

            300

            200

            100

               0
                        19 9 0     19 9 1   19 9 2   19 9 3   19 9 4   19 9 5   19 9 6   19 9 7   19 9 8   19 9 9   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005


    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
                               Per Capita Income
                           Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

                               United States           Mississippi
                                                                                    $34,495
$35,000

$30,000

$25,000
          $19,477                                                                   $24,925
$20,000

$15,000
          $13,089
$10,000

 $5,000

    $0
          1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
                                   Job Growth 1990=100
                             Total Non-Farm, Not Seasonally Adjusted
                              Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

130.00                 United States          Mississippi

125.00

120.00
                                                                                                MS 1,142,400
115.00

110.00
         MS 936,500
105.00

100.00

 95.00

 90.00
     90

           91

                 92

                       93

                             94

                                   95

                                         96

                                               97

                                                     98

                                                             99

                                                                   00

                                                                         01

                                                                               02

                                                                                     03

                                                                                           04

                                                                                                  05

                                                                                                        06
    19

          19

                19

                      19

                            19

                                  19

                                        19

                                              19

                                                    19

                                                            19

                                                                  20

                                                                        20

                                                                              20

                                                                                    20

                                                                                          20

                                                                                                20

                                                                                                       20
                           Manufacturing Employment as a % of Total Employment
                                         Monthly Non-Farm, not seasonally adjusted data
                                            Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                            Mississippi                U.S.
                                            Linear (Mississippi)       Linear (U.S.)
26.00%


                                                                               At these rates of decline in manufacturing
                                                                               employment as a % of total employment,
24.00%
                                                                               Mississippi's percentage of manufacturing
                                                                               employment will equal the U.S. in the next 8 years at
                                                                               approximately 7.7% of the total workforce.
22.00%



20.00%



18.00%

                                                                                                                        y = -0.0006x + 0.2535

16.00%



14.00%



12.00%


                                                                                              y = -0.0003x + 0.1647
10.00%
      1990   1992   1993   1994   1995     1996     1997     1998   1999    2000       2001    2002     2003     2004    2005     2006     2007
                                                                8.48%                     16.70%            5.71%
                                                               De Soto                     Benton 3.98% Alcorn 5.74%
                                                                                1.95%
                                                                  7.81%        Marshall            Tippah         Tishomingo
                                                     2.61%                                                    4.65%
                                                     Tunica        Tate                                      Prentiss
   Percentage                                                    0.53%           7.63%
                                                                                                4.48%
                                                                                                Union
                                                                                                          0.74% 13.68%
Sales Tax Growth                            -5.00% -19.68% Panola              Lafayette       4.49%       Lee Itawamba
                                          Coahoma Quitman                                     Pontotoc
  2005 to 2006                                           -1.89%
                                                                         2.01%
                                                                       Yalobusha 9.70%
                                                                                                   6.15%
                                     -0.22%            Tallahatchie                  Calhoun Chickasaw 0.09%
                                     Bolivar                          -0.64%                                    Monroe
                                                                     Grenada                        -10.48%
                                                                                       1.53%
Mississippi 13.8%                            0.78% 10.62% 42.37%
                                           Sunflower Leflore Carroll
                                                                              -4.64% Webster
                                                                                                      Clay
                                  -1.06%                                   Montgomery              12.64%      11.13%
                                                                                        -7.95% Oktibbeha Lowndes
                                Washington                                             Choctaw
                                                0.13%
                                                             -0.05%        1.00%                0.21%        6.97%
                                              Humphreys Holmes
                                                                            Attala             Winston      Noxubee
                                      2.95%
                                     Sharkey
                                                     3.55%                     1.86%       12.35%         -0.05%
                                  7.66%               Yazoo                    Leake       Neshoba        Kemper
                                                               9.47%
                                Issaquena                     Madison
                                                                             14.03%         0.35%         7.31%
                                       7.08%       4.49%                       Scott
                                      Warren                                                Newton Lauderdale
                                                    Hinds         9.49%
                                                                  Rankin
                                                                                1.76%       13.92%       15.43%
                                   2.58%
                                 Claiborne                       7.34%          Smith       Jasper        Clarke
                                                 11.10%
                                                  Copiah        Simpson
                              11.48%                                         25.22%
                             Jefferson                     10.44%                         14.58%         7.81%
                                                 6.75%    Lawrence -3.37%   Covington Jones              Wayne
                       18.11%
                                  15.98%         Lincoln         Jefferson Davis
                       Adams      Franklin                                            18.43%
                                                                     16.19%           Forrest
                                                   10.07%            Marion 25.27%
                      7.67%          13.97%                                     Lamar           23.85% 51.67%
                                                                                                           Greene
                     Wilkinson                      Pike 34.07%
                                      Amite                                                      Perry
                                                            Walthall
                                                                                                         19.01%
  -20.00% to 0.00%                                                           49.89%         26.25%        George
                                                                            Pearl River      Stone
  0.00% to 10.00%
                                                                                                          40.99%
  10.00% to 20.00%                                                                           44.95%       Jackson
                                                                                            Harrison
  20.00% to 75.00%                                                              72.75%
                                                                               Hancock
                                                                  0.90                     0.28                   1.10
                                                                 De Soto                  Benton 0.59             Alcorn
                                                                                  0.44                                        0.67
                                                                   0.68          Marshall        Tippah
                                                      2.97                                                            0.72 Tishomingo
                                                                   Tate
                                                     Tunica                                          0.70            Prentiss
                                                                                                     Union
   Retail                                   0.79   0.41
                                                                   1.07
                                                                  Panola
                                                                                   0.95
                                                                                 Lafayette
                                                                                                    0.60
                                                                                                                1.43
                                                                                                                Lee
                                                                                                                            0.55
                                                                                                                         Itawamba
                                          Coahoma Quitman                                          Pontotoc
   Sales                            0.80
                                                           0.34
                                                                          0.49
                                                                        Yalobusha         0.50          0.66
                                                                                                     Chickasaw          0.67
                                                       Tallahatchie                      Calhoun
Pull Factors                       Bolivar

                                             0.62
                                                                        1.27
                                                                       Grenada
                                                                                           0.54
                                                                                                              0.63
                                                                                                                       Monroe

                                                                                                              Clay
                                           Sunflower 0.98
   2004                         1.08
                                                    Leflore
                                                                           0.70
                                                                   0.23 Montgomery
                                                                   Carroll          0.67
                                                                                          Webster
                                                                                                        0.88
                                                                                                      Oktibbeha
                                                                                                                         1.13
                                                                                                                       Lowndes
                              Washington       0.56                                Choctaw
                                             Humphreys         0.50                                 0.79           0.50
                                                                            0.78
                                                              Holmes                               Winston        Noxubee
                                         0.53                               Attala
                                        Sharkey
                                                      0.67                       0.70         0.75               0.44
                                                     Yazoo     0.93              Leake       Neshoba            Kemper
                                   0.31
                                Issaquena                     Madison
                                      0.86                                       0.66          0.50             1.15
                                     Warren         1.09          1.11           Scott        Newton          Lauderdale
                                                    Hinds        Rankin

                                                                                 0.29           0.55            0.39
                                  0.46
                                Claiborne                          0.62          Smith         Jasper           Clarke
                                                   0.58
                                                  Copiah         Simpson
                              0.42                                            0.67
                            Jefferson                                                     0.95                  0.99
                                                   1.16     0.40            Covington     Jones                Wayne
                     1.15                                              0.50
                                 0.37             Lincoln Lawrence
                    Adams       Franklin                         Jefferson Davis       1.16
                                                                                      Forrest
                    0.62            0.34             1.17            0.95       1.38            0.45             0.35
                  Wilkinson                                         Marion     Lamar                            Greene
                                    Amite            Pike    0.40                              Perry
                                                           Walthall
                                                                                                                 0.72
                                                                             0.75              0.77             George
                                                                           Pearl River         Stone
   0.00 to 0.80                                                                                                  0.69
                                                                                               1.26
   0.80 to 1.00                                                                    0.77       Harrison          Jackson
   1.00 to 1.20                                                                  Hancock
   1.20 to 3.00
                                                  The Mississippi Public High School Class of 2004-2005
                                               Number of students enrolled by grade and number of graduates
                                                                      Source: MS Superintendent of Education Annual Reports

                          50,000

                                    42,121
                          45,000
                                              40,427
                                                                                                                                  38,808                      38,498
                          40,000                            37,812        37,175        37,315        37,085        37,141                      36,583

                                                                                                                                                                            33,046
Number of Students




                          35,000

                          30,000                                                                                                                                                          28,124
                                                                                                                                                                                                        25,625
                          25,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                23,415
                          20,000

                          15,000

                          10,000

                           5,000 Birth        1st            2nd          3rd            4th           5th           6th           7th          8th           9th           10th          11th          12th        H.S.
                                              grad           grad         grad           grad          grad          grad          grad         grade         grad          grad          grad          grad        Grad
                                0             e              e            e              e             e             e             e                          e             e             e             e




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                                                                                                                                                                                                      a
                                                                                                                                                                                                   du
                                                                                                                                                                                                 ra
                                                                                                                                                                                              G
                                                     491                 394           444
                                                    De Soto             Benton475 Alcorn
                                                                 311          Tippah            504
                                            313       419       Marshall                 480 Tishomingo
Public School                              Tunica Tate                       512       Prentiss
                                                      349         472        Union
Achievement                           328    242
                                                     Panola Lafayette 511            465 453
                                                                                     Lee Itawamba
                                    Coahoma Quitman                        Pontotoc
Level Index                                                454                 381
                                                280      Yalobusha 396
                                 389         Tallahatchie           Calhoun Chickasaw 423
                                Bolivar                  465                             Monroe
                                                        Grenada
Mississippi 426                        322 359                        456
                                                                                   375
                                                                                   Clay
                                     Sunflower                440 Webster 380
                                             Leflore 327 Montgomery                       400
                              389                     Carroll         401 Oktibbeha Lowndes
                            Washington 326                           Choctaw
                                      Humphreys 289           456            386        356
                                                  Holmes Attala             Winston Noxubee
 0 -199 level 1                    294
                                 Sharkey
200-299 level 2                             349
                                           Yazoo 464
                                                                412       420
                                                                Leake Neshoba Kemper
                                                                                      356
                               294
300-399 level 3              Issaquena           Madison
                                                                402
                                  386                                     482        424
400-499 level 4                 Warren 393           481        Scott    Newton Lauderdale
                                          Hinds Rankin
500-600 level 5                 498                            416       380       427
                              Claiborne              376       Smith    Jasper     Clarke
                                           368
                                          Copiah    Simpson
                             278                           407
                           Jefferson                                444        443
                                       441   432         Covington Jones      Wayne
                        331    376                    304
                      Adams Franklin LincolnLawrence
                                                Jefferson Davis 443
                                                                 Forrest
                      376        275    399        403      508          455     445
                     Wilkinson   Amite  Pike 368 Marion Lamar            Perry Greene
                                             Walthall
                                                                                429
                                                          437         422      George
        0 to 300                                        Pearl River Stone
        300 to 400                                                    493       485
        400 to 500                                           460 Harrison Jackson
                                                           Hancock
        500 to 600
                    Mississippi’s Education Pipeline




                Only 26 percent of Mississippi’s 1988 1st graders graduated from college.
Source: Mississippi Department of Education Superintendent Reports; Southern Regional Education Board
               Workforce Participation by Educational Attainment
                    Mississippian 25-64 years of age, 2005
                      Source: US Census, American Community Survey

                                                                            84.51%
                                                       78.75%
                        72.15%



   56.87%




H.S. Dropout     High School Diploma          Some College or AA     Bachelor's Degree or
                                                   Degree                  higher
            Estimated State Cost for Individuals' Education by Educational Attainment
                                 Based on culumative education cost by attainment
           Source: Calculations based MS Dept of Eduation, State Bd for Community and Junior Colleges and IHL data


$100,000

                                                                                                                     $90,222
 $90,000


 $80,000                                                                                 $76,822


 $70,000
                                                                 $61,577
 $60,000
                                        $52,702
 $50,000
                $44,014

 $40,000


 $30,000


 $20,000


 $10,000


     $0
             H.S. Dropout             H.S. Diploma         Some College or AA          B.S. Degree       Graduate or Professional
                                                                degree
                   Estimated Lifetime State Non-educational Costs of Individuals
                                    by Educational Attainment
                         based on estimated Medicaid and Incarceration costs for 45 years
                      Source: Calculations based on US Census Current Population Survey, March 2005

$45,000


$40,000     $38,712


$35,000


$30,000


$25,000

                                     $19,766
$20,000
                                                             $17,595

$15,000


$10,000
                                                                                      $6,497
                                                                                                              $5,775
 $5,000


    $0
          H.S. Dropout            H.S. Diploma         Some College or AA          B.S. Degree        Graduate or Professional
                                                            degree
                               State Public Lifetime Costs and Benefits to Mississippi
                                      by Educational Attainment of Individuals
                        Source: Calcuations based on 2005 Annual Median Earnings, Education and Other Costs

                               State Lifetime Public Costs for 45 years       State Lifetime Public Benefits over 45 years
 $240,000

 $220,000

 $200,000

 $180,000

 $160,000    For each $ invested in
             education, the simple
 $140,000    return to the state by
             education attainment is
 $120,000

                    $0.71                     $1.2                        $1.49                     $2.13                      $2.39
 $100,000
                                              1

  $80,000

  $60,000

  $40,000
                H.S. Dropout               H.S. Diploma            Some College or AA            B.S. Degree          Graduate or Professional
% of MS                                                                 degree
Adults in        21.55 %                     32.03 %                   27.75 %                     12.15 %                   6.52 %
each group
               Net Returns to the State from Individuals by Educational Attainment
                          Source: Calculations based on education costs and 45 years of lifetime work


$140,000                                                                                                       $133,813



$120,000



$100,000                                                                                 $94,126



 $80,000



 $60,000


                                                                $38,787
 $40,000



 $20,000                               $14,944



     $0
           H.S. Dropout             H.S. Diploma          Some College or AA           B.S. Degree      Graduate or Professional
                                                               degree
             -$23,629
-$20,000



-$40,000

				
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