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					ESN Analyser
Investment Research


                                                                                                          12 August 2011
ESN Top Picks


Today Corporate Events


RECOMMENDATION CHANGES
IVG Immobilien AG (Downgrade: Hold from Buy) Profit warning downgrade to Hold
Olvi (Upgrade: Hold from Reduce) Finland and the Baltic countries were good, devaluation cut the margin in Belarus
Technopolis (Upgrade: Buy from Accumulate) Forecasts rise on the optimistic guidance
Uponor (Downgrade: Hold from Accumulate) Margins under pressure, uncertain demand outlook


STRATEGY NEWS
ESN Strategy Update Still a long way off cycle bottom valuations


BLUE CHIPS COMPANY NEWS
K+S AG (Buy) On track in a positive market environment - BUY
LANXESS (Buy) Q2/11 results review: Better than expected
RTL Group (Accumulate) Preview 1H11 Interim Statement
ThyssenKrupp (Hold) 3Q10/11 EBIT below cons. - guidance confirmed
Zurich Financial Services (Hold) Q2 11 CC feedback: strong release




SMALL & MID CAPS COMPANY NEWS
Advanced Vision Technology (Buy) Good Q2’11 figures, on track to meet the FY guidance
Ansaldo STS (Accumulate) Honolulu contract ruling expected on 15 August
Bauer AG (Buy) 2Q results in line – lowered guidance 11
Carl Zeiss Meditec (Accumulate) A strong Q3 2010/11 reporting in line though
HHLA (Accumulate) Solid Q2 2011 results and guidance increase
Interseroh (Hold) The benefit of diversification – strong scrap steel in H1
IVG Immobilien AG (Hold) Profit warning downgrade to Hold
Olvi (Hold) Finland and the Baltic countries were good, devaluation cut the margin in Belarus
Roularta (Buy) Preview – Reducing TP to EUR 26
Seat PG (Not rated) H1 2011 preview: focus on debt restructuring
Technopolis (Buy) Forecasts rise on the optimistic guidance
Telegraaf Media Groep (Accumulate) Outlook lowered
United Internet (Accumulate) 2Q11 preview
Uponor (Hold) Margins under pressure, uncertain demand outlook




                            Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
ESN Top Picks

Blue Chips Top Picks
                                                                                                                                                                            Entry
                                                                                             Price as of        Target     Upside/Downside                     Entry                 Total Return
Company              Country       Sector                     Idea         Rating                                                             Entry date                 price (Div.
                                                                                             11/08/2011          Price         Potential                       price                 Entry To Date
                                                                                                                                                                            Adj)
BNP PARIBAS          France        Banks                      Long          Buy                35.72            75.00           110%          13/07/2011       46.95       46.95        -23.9%
CASINO GUICHARD-P    France        Food & Drug Retailers      Long          Buy                53.90            84.00           56%           06/07/2011       66.74       66.74         19.2%
FIAT                 Italy         Automobiles & Parts        Long          Buy                 4.91             9.30           89%           27/04/2011        7.11       7.11          31.0%
LINDE                Germany       Chemicals                  Long          Buy                108.85           145.00          33%           02/03/2011       111.45     109.25         -0.4%
COMMERZBANK          Germany       Banks                      Long          Buy                   2.09           4.00           91%           28/07/2011        2.56       2.56         -18.2%
TELEFONICA           Spain         Telecommunications         Long          Buy                  13.75          20.40           48%           26/05/2011       16.68       16.68        -17.6%
VALEO                France        Automobiles & Parts        Long          Buy                  33.20          58.00           75%           04/05/2011       42.76       41.56        -20.1%
VIVENDI              France        Media                      Long       Accumulate              15.01          23.40           56%           16/03/2011       18.96       17.56        -14.6%
VOPAK                Netherlands   Oil Services               Long          Buy                  30.60          43.00           41%           20/06/2011       32.88       32.88         -6.9%


source: ESN Members’ estimates




M/S Caps Top Picks
                                                                                                                                                                              Entry
                                                                                                  Price as of                   Upside/Downside                  Entry                  Total Return
Company               Country        Sector                               Idea        Rating                    Target Price                      Entry date               price (Div.
                                                                                                  11/08/2011                        Potential                    price                 Entry To Date
                                                                                                                                                                              Adj)
AAREAL BANK           Germany        Banks                               Long          Buy          15.73          25.00               59%         04/08/11      17.73       17.73       -11.3%
ALTRI                 Portugal       Basic Resources                     Long          Buy           1.26          2.25                79%         21/07/11       1.36        1.36        -7.5%
D'IETEREN             Belgium        General Retailers                   Long          Buy          40.31          60.00               49%         21/07/11      46.92       46.92       -14.1%
ELISA                 Finland        Telecommunications                  Long       Accumulate      13.97          17.50               25%         21/07/11      14.85       14.85        -5.9%
FOLLI FOLLIE GROUP    Greece         General Retailers                   Long          Buy           6.80          13.80               103%        29/07/11       9.25        9.25       -26.5%
GESCO                 Germany        Industrial Engineering              Long          Buy          64.00          80.00               25%         03/03/11      57.53       57.53        11.2%
KONTRON               Germany        Electronic & Electrical Equipment   Long          Buy           6.17          9.50                54%         30/06/11       7.24        7.24       -14.8%
RECORDATI             Italy          Healthcare                          Long       Accumulate       6.55          8.20                25%         29/07/11       7.63        7.63       -14.2%
UNITED DRUG           Ireland        Healthcare                          Long          Buy           2.13          3.00                41%         29/07/11       2.35        2.35        -9.4%


source: ESN Members’ estimates




This selection of stocks is not intended to provide a recommended portfolio; therefore there is no point in
comparing its performance with any benchmark. The performance of each stock has to be considered
independently. Risk factors are taken into account when selecting individual stocks but the risk profile of the
selection as a whole is not considered. The approach used to select each investment idea is opportunistic with
an absolute return target.



                                                                                                                                                                               Page 2 of 25
                                     Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
Today corporate events
                                                 Bloom berg
Com pany                  Country                             Date       Event Type          Description
                                                 code
BAUER AG                 Germany                 B5A GR       12/08/11   Results             Interim 2011 Results
CARL ZEISS MEDITEC       Germany                 AFX GY       12/08/11   Results             Q3 2011 Earnings conference call
                         Germany                 AFX GY       12/08/11   Results             Q3 2011 Results
EUROMICRON AG            Germany                 EUC GY       12/08/11   Results             Q2 2011 Results
FUGRO                    Netherlands             FUR NA       12/08/11   Analyst Meeting     Interim 2011 Analyst meeting Webcast
                         Netherlands             FUR NA       12/08/11   Results             Interim 2011 Press conference Webcast
                         Netherlands             FUR NA       12/08/11   Results             Interim 2011 Results
HHLA                     Germany                 HHFA GY      12/08/11   Results             Q2 2011 Results
                         Germany                 HHFA GY      12/08/11   Results             Q2 2011 Earnings conference call
INTEGRALIS AG            Germany                 AAGN GR      12/08/11   Results             Q2 2011 Results
INTERSEROH               Germany                 ITS GR       12/08/11   Results             Interim 2011 Results
IVG IMMOBILIEN AG        Germany                 IVG GY       12/08/11   Results             Interim 2011 Results
                         Germany                 IVG GY       12/08/11   Results             Interim 2011 Earnings conference call
KHD HUMBOLDT WEDAG INTERNGermany                 KWG GR       12/08/11   Results             Interim 2011 Results
LPKF LASER & ELECTRONICS Germany                 LPK GR       12/08/11   Results             Q2 2011 Internet Chat
                         Germany                 LPK GR       12/08/11   Results             Q2 2011 Results
NYRSTAR                  Belgium                 NYR BB       12/08/11   Dividend Payment    Full year 2010 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 0.15
Q-CELLS                   Germany                QCE GR       12/08/11   Results             Q2 2011 Results
                          Germany                QCE GR       12/08/11   Results             Q2 2011 Earnings conference call / Webcast
RAMIRENT                  Finland                RMR1V FH     12/08/11   Analyst Meeting     Interim 2011 Press & analyst meeting / Webcast
                          Finland                RMR1V FH     12/08/11   Results             Interim 2011 Results
SALZGITTER                Germany                SZG GR       12/08/11   Analyst Meeting     Interim 2011 Analyst meeting
SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY      Germany                S92 GR       12/08/11   Results             Q2 2011 Results
                          Germany                S92 GR       12/08/11   Results             Q2 2011 Earnings conference call
SMT SCHARF AG             Germany                S4A GY       12/08/11   Results             Q2 2011 Results
TELEGRAAF MEDIA GROEP     Netherlands            TELEG NA     12/08/11   Results             Interim 2011 Earnings conference call
                          Netherlands            TELEG NA     12/08/11   Results             Interim 2011 Results
THYSSENKRUPP              Germany                TKA GY       12/08/11   Results             Q3 2011 Earnings conference call / Webcast
                          Germany                TKA GY       12/08/11   Results             Q3 2011 Results
VBH HOLDING               Germany                VBH GR       12/08/11   Results             Interim 2011 Results


Source: Precise




                                                                                                                                              Page 3 of 25
                                    Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
  Strategy Update Summary
                                                                                      Analyser

 Still a long way off cycle bottom valuations

 Still a long way off cycle bottom valuations
  The severe fall in the stock markets since August 1 has left many of us at a loss as to what needs to be done to curb the
  downward spiral. The fact that most sector valuations are now close to cycle bottom levels (apart from aerospace-defence,
  food and beverage, basic resources, luxury good, electrical equipment, oil and oil services) will perhaps not be enough to
  stop the rot. In reality, the corresponding margin levels are still a long way off what they would be at the bottom of the cycle.

  Put differently, does the balance between upcoming revisions to earnings and what the indices have already
  priced in mean that the Stoxx Europe 600 is starting to look like a good buy? Which sectors would fall into this
  category if so?

  We have decided to deal with these questions by comparing the fall in the indices since their peak in July 2011 with the
  correction to come on analysts’ forecasts to a return to normative margins on the one hand and bottom of the cycle margin
  levels on the other. To this end, we used the following methodology:

  •     We have assumed that the Stoxx Europe 600 and the sectors were at their fair value at the start of July and that any
        downward correction is identical to a future adjustment to earnings;
  •     Unable to turn to the responsiveness of analysts/the consensus during this summer period, we have identified on a
        historical base both “normative” and “bottom of the cycle” margins for each sector index (consensus data adjusted to
        ensure homogeneity);
  •     To simplify the analysis, we believe that the downward dip in the margin required to return to the historical normative
        or bottom of the cycle level corresponds to the correction to come on aggregate earnings and therefore on EPS.
        Logically, it would also make sense to correct the impact of the fall in activity levels/sales, but this impact is marginal
        compared to the impact of a downward revision to margin levels (except for some of the more cyclical sectors);
  •     To avoid adding bias to our analysis due to the more significant weighting of the larger companies, we have retained
        median normative sector margins over two cycles, i.e. 1998-2010. If the economic model changed too much during
        the period, we retained only the normative sector margin from the last cycle (information given for each sector in the
        table on the following pages);
  •     We have made an exception of the general Stoxx Europe 600 index. We have performed the same analysis (using
        median figures), but also on the net margin weighted in relation to sales, since the index level cannot be calculated
        based on a median but based on a weighting in relation to the size of the respective companies.

  Which sectors have taken too much of a tumble?
 1/ The fall recorded by the Stoxx Europe 600 since the start of the month corresponds to the expectation that net margins
 will return to their historical 1998-2010 average (i.e. a dip of 20% in the index and a necessary dip in the net margin
 weighted in relation to sales of 19% (i.e. 7.1% vs 8.8% forecast by the consensus);
 2/ Assuming that the analysts’ forecasts for net margins will return to mid-cycle median margin levels, 14 sectors
 and sub-sectors out of the 24 sectors that we follow have suffered too great a correction; they are identified in the tables on
 the next two pages (last column; cells left blank); the sectors that have not yet seen a sufficient correction: Food and
 Beverage, Automotive, Chemicals, Industrial goods & services (especially the aerospace/defence component),
 Leisure & Tourism;
 3/ Compared to the bottom of the cycle margins however, only five sectors have seen a sufficient level of
 correction: Retail, Property, Utilities, Technology and Banks. It is clear that if we apply this method to the banks (on
                                             Enter Graph Here
 ROE), it only works if we ignore the stock market challenges facing the sector which depend above all else on the sector’s
 liquidity rather than profit margins.


   François Duhen         Director of Dedicated Research                CM-CIC Securities         +33 1 45 96 79 42    duhenfr@cmcics.com
   Yann Belvisi           Analyst of Dedicated Research                 CM-CIC Securities         +33 1 45 96 86 46    belvisya@cmcics.com




Page 4 of 25                                                                                                     European Securities Network
                                                Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
K+S AG
Germany/Chemicals                                                                                                                                                 Analyser
K+S AG (Buy)

Buy                                                                                                                                  On track in a positive market environment - BUY
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR                                                                                          43.80                      The facts: Good Q2 11 results and an outlook for 2011e in-line with our estimates
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                       fully confirm our positive view on K+S. Hence, we only fine tuned our estimates by
Target price: EUR                                                                                         67.00                      slightly lowering P&M sales volume for 2011e to 7.05m t from 7.1m t compared to
from Target Price: EUR                                                                                    70.00                      unchanged company guidance of 7.0m t. This reduces P&M-EBIT 11e by 1% to
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                 SDFG.DE/SDF GY
                                                                                                                                     EUR 775m from EUR 783m. We’ve also excluded the disposed Compo business
                                                                                                                                     from our P&L while lowering effective tax rate by 1pp to 27% for the 2011-13e
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                       8,383             period compared to company guidance of 26-27% for 2011e. Furthermore, in our
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                             191             sum-of-the-parts we now only account for free cash flow contribution from the
Free float                                                                                                          88%              remaining fertilizer product sales activities until YE 14e when the contract with
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                           1,339,854                  BASF expires. This reduces our fair value to EUR 67.8 / share from
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                  69                 EUR 70 / share, i.e. sending our PT down to EUR 67 (EUR 70), an upside of 53%
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                        58.60                 compared to yesterday’s close.
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                         41.28
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                            -20.00%                  K+S - Changes in estimates
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                            -18.80%                  EUR m                                  2010    2011e    2012e     2013e        CAGR 10-13e
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                             4.29%                  Sales (old)                           4,994    5,401     5,643     5,597                  3.9%
                                                                                                                                     Sale s                                4,633    5,338     5,481     5,402                  5.3%
Key financials (EUR)                                                   12/10                12/11e                 12/12e            Change (%)                            -7.2%    -1.2%    -2.9%     -3.5%
Sales (m)                                                              4,633                 5,338                  5,481
EBITDA (m)                                                               953                 1,289                  1,506            EBIT I (old)                            727     1,078     1,283     1,179               17.5%
EBITDA margin                                                         20.6%                 24.2%                  27.5%              Margin (%)                          14.6%     20.0%    22.7%     21.1%
EBIT (m)                                                                 715                 1,057                  1,265            EBIT I                                  715     1,057     1,265     1,156               17.4%
EBIT margin                                                           15.4%                 19.8%                  23.1%              Margin (%)                          15.4%     19.8%    23.1%     21.4%
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                     445                   718                    872
                                                                                                                                     Change (%)                            -1.7%     -1.9%    -1.4%     -2.0%
ROCE                                                                  13.5%                 19.1%                  20.6%
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                       38                   (47)                 (221)            Adj. EPS (old)                          2.33     3.77     4.55      4.18                21.5%
Net Debt/Equity                                                          0.0                   0.0                   -0.1            Adj. EPS                                2.33     3.75     4.56      4.16                21.4%
Debt/EBITDA                                                               0.0                   0.0                   -0.1           Change (%)                             0.0%    -0.5%     0.1%     -0.5%
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                               5.3                 17.6                   21.5
EV/Sales                                                                  2.5                   1.7                    1.6                                                                                   So urce: K+S, equinet
EV/EBITDA                                                               12.1                    7.1                    6.0
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                        12.1                    7.1                    6.0           Our analysis: Outlook for P&M segment remains encouraging: USDA
EV/EBIT                                                                 16.2                    8.6                    7.1           yesterday reduced its yield outlook for US corn in 2011/12e much stronger than
P/E (adj.)                                                              24.2                  11.7                     9.6           expected to 153 bu/acre (e: 155.8) from 158.7 bu/acre posted in July. Hence, US
P/BV                                                                      4.1                   2.7                    2.3           corn production outlook was cut by 4.1% m-m with ending stock dropping to just
OpFCF yield                                                            5.7%                  5.7%                  10.5%
Dividend yield                                                         2.3%                  3.4%                   4.1%
                                                                                                                                     714m bu or 22.8 days of consumption vs. 63 days in 2009/10. Hence, we expect
EPS (adj.)                                                              2.33                  3.75                   4.56            grain markets to remain tight and prices to remain firm also in 2011/12e,
BVPS                                                                   13.84                 16.12                  19.18            supporting our view on another 13% y-y increase in K+S potash prices in 2012e.
DPS                                                                     1.00                  1.50                   1.80

                                                                                                                                     K+S - P&M Sales volume, MOP prices & key figures
  60
   vvdsvdvsdy
                                                                                                                                     EUR m                                   2010   2011e     2012e     2013e       CAGR 10-13e
  58

  56

  54
                                                                                                                                     Potash-containing products              5.74     6.10     6.15      6.15                  2.3%
  52                                                                                                                                 Other P&M products                      1.25     0.95     1.00      0.95                 -8.7%
  50

  48                                                                                                                                 Sale s volum e (m tons )                6.99     7.05     7.15      7.10                  0.5%
  46
                                                                                                                                       y-y                                 60.7%     0.9%     1.4%     -0.7%
  44

  42                                                                                                                                 MOP (EUR / t)                            285      351      396       379                 10.0%
  40
       Jul 10   Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11   Mar 11   Apr 11   May 11   Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11     y-y                                -15.2%    23.4%    12.8%     -4.5%
 Source: Factset
                                                        K+S AG           DAX30 (Rebased)                                             ASP (EUR / t)                            267      314      349       335                  7.9%
                                                                                                                                       y-y                                -18.3%    17.4%    11.2%     -3.9%
                                                                                                                                     P&M Revenues                           1,867    2,211    2,493     2,380                  8.4%
Analyst(s):                                                                                                                            y-y                                 31.3%    18.4%    12.8%     -4.5%
Michael Schaefer, Equinet Bank                                                                                                       P&M EBIT I                               476      775    1,025       906                 23.9%
michael.schaefer@equinet-ag.de                                                                                                         Margin (%)                          25.5%    35.1%    41.1%     38.1%
+49 69 58997 419                                                                                                                                                                                                 So urce: K+S, equinet


                                                                                                                                     Conclusion & Action: Our investment case is fully on-track. Trading PE 12e of
                                                                                                                                     9.6x compares to 16.3x 1yr-forward average trading in 2005-10. Confirm BUY.




Page 5 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                 European Securities Network
                                                                                                                            Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
LANXESS
Germany/Chemicals                                                                                                                                                 Analyser
LANXESS (Buy)

Buy                                                                                                                                   Q2/11 results review: Better than expected
Share price: EUR                                                                                           43.96                      The facts: We confirm Buy for LXS with a new TP EUR 59.
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                        Our analysis:
Target price: EUR                                                                                          59.00                      Q2/11 results: LXS reported good results across all segments. The achieved
from Target Price: EUR                                                                                      63.00                     profitability of 15.1% for adj. EBITDA is clearly above our forecast (14.3%). The
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                                                     segment Performance Polymers posted especially good development, despite
                                                                                                    LXSG.DE/LXS GY
                                                                                                                                      significantly increased butadiene price (> +50% yoy, c. 25% of sourcing) and
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                        3,657             unfavourable FX effect (especially weak USD). Due to unfavourable FX ratio, LXS
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                               83             lost approx. EUR 130m in sales and EUR 20m in EBITDA in Q2/11 yoy.
Free float                                                                                                           83%              Guidance FY 2011: Despite good results, the guidance for the whole FY2011
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                554,637                (which we do not consider as too conservative in light of a probable economic
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                     29               downturn) is without a significant upside potential for market estimates: adj.
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                           63.00               EBITDA growth of c. 20% yoy implies an EBITDA adj. of EUR 1,106m vs.
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                            34.25               consensus EUR 1,097m.
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                               -24.02%                Major takeaways from the conference call:
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                               -25.65%
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                               13.96%
                                                                                                                                         Typical seasonality is still in place: Approx. 60% of business is done in
                                                                                                                                         H1/11, another 40% to follow in H2/11e, i.e. selling volumes in H2/11e should
Key financials (EUR)                                                    12/10                12/11e                 12/12e               be lower than in H1/11, but not below H2/10. Profitability typically goes down in
Sales (m)                                                               7,120                 8,067                  8,628
                                                                                                                                         H2, due to lower cost absorption and/or maintenance expenses.
EBITDA (m)                                                                890                 1,117                  1,179
EBITDA margin                                                          12.5%                 13.8%                  13.7%                Visibility: LXS has visibility of 6-8 weeks as of today, which is enough to be
EBIT (m)                                                                  607                   785                    808
                                                                                                                                         realistic for FY11 targets as LXS' production activities are usually nearly
EBIT margin                                                             8.5%                  9.7%                   9.4%
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                      399                   537                    510               completed in the mid/end Nov. due to maintenance work at customers site.
ROCE                                                                   11.9%                 12.3%                  11.8%
                                                                                                                                         The integration of recent acquisition DSM Elastomers is well on track, with
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                       954                 1,306                  1,057
Net Debt/Equity                                                           0.5                   0.6                    0.4               a “pleasing contribution” since May 2011: sales contribution of EUR 82m
Debt/EBITDA                                                                1.1                   1.2                    0.9              without a quantification of profitability metrics for Q2/11. But for the FY 2011 so
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                              10.7                  12.6                   10.7
                                                                                                                                         far, DSM Elastomers generated c. 13% net margin (versus 8% at LXS).
EV/Sales                                                                   0.9                   0.7                    0.6
EV/EBITDA                                                                  7.3                   5.0                    4.5           Estimates adjustments & Valuation: We have left our estimates more or less
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                           7.1                   4.9                    4.5           unchanged. In our recession scenario we assume a 25% decline in sales and 55%
EV/EBIT                                                                  10.7                    7.1                    6.6
                                                                                                                                      decline in EBIT for 2012e and a recovery at a slow pace afterwards (as we do not
P/E (adj.)                                                               12.3                    6.8                    7.2
P/BV                                                                       2.8                   1.7                    1.4           expect any stimulus packages (similar to 2009) in light of limited public financial
OpFCF yield                                                             6.0%                  8.6%                  16.3%             power in the most regions). We factored in a 25% probability of a recession in our
Dividend yield                                                          1.6%                  1.8%                   2.0%             valuation and derive our new TP of EUR 59. We confirm Buy.
EPS (adj.)                                                               4.79                  6.45                   6.13
                                                                                                                                      Conclusion & Action: LANXESS released its Q2/11 results with sales and
BVPS                                                                    20.99                 26.57                  31.90
DPS                                                                      0.70                  0.80                   0.90            EBITDA adj. 3.5% and 6% above the consensus, resp. LXS additionally raised its
                                                                                                                                      guidance to EBITDA growth of c. 20% vs. 2010 (versus: EBIDTA adj. >EUR 1bn,
  65
   vvdsvdv sdy
                                                                                                                                      c. +10% yoy), which implies an EBITDA adj. of around EUR 1,106m (versus
  60
                                                                                                                                      equinet: EUR 1,137m, +24% yoy and consensus EUR 1,097m). Great
  55

  50
                                                                                                                                      performance in Q2/11 was due to LXS’ ability to pass higher input costs
  45                                                                                                                                  completely on to customers, which is really impressive, especially comparing
  40
                                                                                                                                      LXS’s statements with result releases of other players in the chemical sector. For
  35

  30
                                                                                                                                      the coming months, even if assume a recessional scenario, LXS should capitalise
       Jul 10    Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11   Mar 11   Apr 11   May 11   Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11
                                                                                                                                      on mobility, urbanisation and “clean water” trends which might soften the
                                                        LANXESS            MDAX (Rebased)
 Source: Factset
                                                                                                                                      cyclicality of LXS’ business. We factored in a 25% likelihood of an economic
                                                                                                                                      slowdown in our new TP of EUR 59. The market reaction of the last days is
Analyst(s):                                                                                                                           overdone in our view as it reflects just the recessional scenario. We confirm BUY.
Nadeshda Demidova, Equinet Bank
                                                                                                                                      For further details please refer to our flash note published yesterday.
nadeshda.demidova@equinet-ag.de
+49 69 58997 434




Page 6 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                  European Securities Network
                                                                                                                              Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
RTL Group
Luxembourg/Media                                                                                                                                                   Analyser
RTL Group (Accumulate)

Accumulate                                                                                                                             Preview 1H11 Interim Statement
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR                                                                                            59.41                      The facts: RTL is scheduled to report its 1H11 Interim Statement on Wednesday,
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                         August 24 before market opening.
Target price: EUR                                                                                           70.00                      Early May the company said that given the mixed picture on the European TV
from Target Price: EUR                                                                                      77.00                      advertising markets, it was not able to give a reliable FY11 guidance at that point
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                      AUDK.LU/RTL LX                  in time. It however was confident that it would outperform the market in all major
                                                                                                                                       countries thanks to the strong audience performance of its TV channels.
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                         9,126
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                               154
                                                                                                                                       Our analysis: RTL’s closest competitor ProSiebenSat.1 already reported solid
Free float                                                                                                            10%
                                                                                                                                       2Q11 results, referring to the positive economic development in Germany,
                                                                                                                                       resulting in higher TV advertising revenues. In its guidance the company showed
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                    10,940
                                                                                                                                       itself very confident, expecting growth at all levels.
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                        1
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                             76.95              Two of RTL’s listed subsidiaries have already reported 1H11 results. France’s M6-
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                              57.17              Metropole (48.43% shareholder) published a better than expected set of 1H11
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                 -11.59%               results as the slowdown in advertising in Q2 was not as sharp as expected. In
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                 -12.62%               addition the company succeeded well in keeping the inflation of programming
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                 -0.98%               costs under control in 1H11. The guidance M6-Metropole provided was in fact a
                                                                                                                                       reiteration of the RTL guidance. Spanish Antena3 (20.5% shareholder) presented
Key financials (EUR)                                                     12/10                12/11e                 12/12e
                                                                                                                                       weak 2Q11 results with sales, EBITDA and net profit falling 6%, 20% and 18%
Sales (m)                                                                5,591                 5,678                  5,905
EBITDA (m)                                                               1,256                 1,274                  1,322            respectively. However, these results were better than generally expected as
EBITDA margin                                                          22.5%                  22.4%                  22.4%             Antena3 continued to gain market share in TV and radio and as the good cost
EBIT (m)                                                                 1,001                 1,019                  1,056            management partially offsets the erosion in advertising.
EBIT margin                                                            17.9%                  17.9%                  17.9%
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                       852                    896                    936           Ahead of the 1H11 results we decided to tweak down our estimates a bit to reflect
ROCE                                                                    17.2%                 18.5%                  19.2%             the negative impact the recent economic turmoil will have on advertising spending.
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                      (653)                  (740)                  (949)           We believe TV advertising will be less impacted as advertisers continue to see TV
Net Debt/Equity                                                           -0.1                   -0.1                   -0.2           advertising as the most effective way to reach a large audience. In general we
Debt/EBITDA                                                                -0.5                   -0.6                   -0.7
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                            (125.6)                 (82.5)                 (53.1)
                                                                                                                                       have lowered our estimates with between 1% and 2%.
EV/Sales                                                                    2.0                    1.5                    1.4          We expect 1H11 sales of EUR 2,712m, an increase of 1.9% y-o-y. This implies we
EV/EBITDA                                                                   9.0                    6.8                    6.4          are counting on 2Q11 sales of EUR 1,457m, an increase of 2.3%. Compared to
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                            9.0                    6.8                    6.4
EV/EBIT                                                                   11.3                     8.6                    8.1
                                                                                                                                       the realized growth in 1Q11 of +1.5% this is an increase in the y-o-y trend.
P/E (adj.)                                                                13.8                   10.2                     9.7          Looking at the different countries we expect to see a mixed picture with healthy
P/BV                                                                        2.4                    1.8                    1.8          growth in the FremantleMedia (+5.0%) business as well as in Belgium (+4.5%)
OpFCF yield                                                              9.6%                 11.7%                  12.1%             and the Netherlands (+6.0%), fairly stable sales in Germany (+1.0%) and slightly
Dividend yield                                                           8.4%                  7.3%                   8.4%
                                                                                                                                       declining sales in France (-2.5%).
EPS (adj.)                                                                5.55                   5.83                   6.09
BVPS                                                                     32.63                 32.45                  33.79            We expect an increase in the operational expenses, resulting in a fairly flat EBITA
DPS                                                                       5.00                   4.36                   4.97           of EUR 535m despite the 1.9% sales growth. The same pockets of strength at the
                                                                                                                                       revenue level can also be found at the EBITA level with the Netherlands as
 80 vvdsvdvsdy                                                                                                                         strongest growth contributor. Due to a lower tax rate than in 1H10 we do expect an
 75                                                                                                                                    increase in the 1H11 net result.
 70
                                                                                                                                       Conclusion & Action: We expect RTL to report a fairly robust set of 1H11
 65


 60
                                                                                                                                       results. Though we did decide to lower our estimates a bit to reflect the negative
 55
                                                                                                                                       impact the recent economic turmoil will have on advertising spending. This
 50
   Jul 10        Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11   Mar 11   Apr 11   May 11    Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11
                                                                                                                                       downward revision impacts our TP in addition to lower peer multiples and the
                                        RTL GROUP                                   Stoxx Media (Rebased)
                                                                                                                                       increasing macroeconomic uncertainty that commands a higher risk premium. Our
                                                                                                                                       new TP now holds at EUR 70. We maintain our Accumulate rating.

Analyst(s):
Siddy Jobe, Bank Degroof
siddy.jobe@degroof.be
+32 (0) 2 287 9279




Page 7 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                 European Securities Network
                                                                                                                               Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
ThyssenKrupp
Germany/Basic Resources                                                                                                                                                     Analyser
ThyssenKrupp (Hold)

Hold                                                                                                                                     3Q10/11 EBIT below cons. - guidance confirmed
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR                                                                                              23.23                      The facts: ThyssenKrupp (TKA) reported 2Q10/11 results this morning which
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                           came in below our and consensus’ estimates on the EBIT line. Moreover, TKA
Target price: EUR                                                                                             32.00                      reiterated its FY11 guidance of adj. EBIT at around EUR2bn. Conference call is
Target Price unchanged                                                                                                                   scheduled for 2:00pm (CEST).
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                       TKAG.DE/TKA GY
                                                                                                                                            EUR m               Q3 10/11        Q3 09/10          yoy             equinet        cons.
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                           11,351               Sales                   12,851              11,679          10%           12,797        12,846
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                  489
                                                                                                                                            EBIT*                       545               500            9%              563             582
Free float                                                                                                               65%
                                                                                                                                            EBT                         407               414           -2%              385             431
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                2,816,243
                                                                                                                                            EAT                         270               298           -9%              274             299
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                       82
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                             35.83                   EPS                        0.46               0.58      -21%                 0.59         0.60
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                              21.49                                           m
                                                                                                                                            * adj. EB IT EUR566m (21 dispo sal lo ss)               So urce: ThyssenKrupp, equinet Research
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                 -28.00%
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                 -29.80%                 Our analysis: Segment comments: 1)SE with strong volumes/prices, margin
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                  1.84%                 stable qoq despite increased raw material costs; 2)SA strong sales growth qoq
                                                                                                                                         65%, strong order intake; 3)Stainless sales down due to lower transaction prices
Key financials (EUR)                                                     09/10                 09/11e                  09/12e
Sales (m)                                                               42,621                 48,385                  51,914
                                                                                                                                         and tactical buying behaviour; 4)MS with sales growth backed by increased
EBITDA (m)                                                               2,711                  3,757                   4,810            material prices; 5) Elevator stable in sales/margin qoq; 6)CT with stable qoq sales,
EBITDA margin                                                            6.4%                   7.8%                    9.3%             margin back at strong 9%; 7)PT slightly lower in sales/margin qoq.
EBIT (m)                                                                 1,274                  1,935                   2,922
EBIT margin                                                              3.0%                   4.0%                    5.6%
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                       738                    999                   1,402               EUR m               Q3 10/11        Q3 09/10          yoy             equinet        Delta
ROCE                                                                     3.2%                   4.3%                    6.5%                Sales                   12,851              11,679          10%           12,797             0%
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                      4,055                  4,331                   3,774
                                                                                                                                              Steel Euro pe            3,518             2,887          22%             3,358            5%
Net Debt/Equity                                                            0.4                    0.3                     0.3
Debt/EBITDA                                                                 1.5                    1.2                     0.8                Steel A mer.               429                24      1688%                 372            15%
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                               13.8                     7.8                   10.9
                                                                                                                                              Stainless                1,586              1,708          -7%             1,733           -9%
EV/Sales                                                                    0.6                    0.5                     0.5
EV/EBITDA                                                                   9.1                    6.4                     5.0                M aterial Serv           3,980             3,598           1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          1              3,814           4%
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                            9.4                    6.4                     5.0                Elevato r Tech            1,298             1 3
                                                                                                                                                                                           ,31           -1%             1,339           -3%
EV/EBIT                                                                   19.3                   12.5                      8.3
                                                                                                                                              P lant Tech.               943               970           -3%              994            -5%
P/E (adj.)                                                                15.0                   10.8                      8.5
P/BV                                                                        1.3                    1.0                     1.0                Co mp. Tech.             1,779              1,568          13%             1,803           -1%
OpFCF yield                                                            -19.1%                 -14.6%                    6.6%
                                                                                                                                              M arine Syst.              479               423           13%              266            80%
Dividend yield                                                           1.9%                   3.0%                    3.9%
EPS (adj.)                                                                1.59                   2.15                    2.73                 Co rp. & Co ns            -1 61
                                                                                                                                                                          ,1               -812          n.a.            -883            n.a.
BVPS                                                                     18.32                  23.03                   22.88               EBIT                        545               499            9%              563           -3%
DPS                                                                       0.45                   0.70                    0.90
                                                                                                                                              Steel Euro pe              322               218          48%               306            5%

  36
   vvdsvdv sdy
                                                                                                                                              Steel A mer.              -190               -130          n.a.             -186           n.a.
  34
                                                                                                                                              Stainless                    0                 81          n.a.               28           n.a.
  32

  30                                                                                                                                          M aterial Serv             149               158           -6%              130            15%
  28
                                                                                                                                              Elevato r Tech              151              162           -7%              166            -9%
  26

  24                                                                                                                                          P lant Tech. (C             131               90          46%               127            3%
  22

  20
                                                                                                                                              Co mp. Tech.                141               66           1
                                                                                                                                                                                                        1 4%              135            4%
       Jul 10    Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11    Feb 11   Mar 11     Apr 11   May 11   Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11
                                                                                                                                              M arine Syst.               62                 8          675%                21            91
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1 %
                                              THYSSENKRUPP                Stoxx Basic Resources (Rebased)
 Source: Factset

                                                                                                                                              Co rp. & Co ns            -221               -154          n.a.             -164           n.a.
                                                                                                                                                                                                    So urce: ThyssenKrupp, equinet Research
Analyst(s):
                                                                                                                                         CF / BS: FCF slightly positive at EUR198m, net debt still at high EUR6.25bn,
Stefan Freudenreich, CFA, Equinet Bank
                                                                                                                                         implying a gearing of 57.6%.
stefan.freudenreich@equinet-ag.de
+49 69 58997 437
                                                                                                                                         Outlook: FY11 guidance of 10%-15% yoy sales growth and an adj. EBIT at c.
                                                                                                                                         EUR2bn was reiterated. TKA is overall optimistic on its core markets, however,
                                                                                                                                         declining order intake signals some slowdown in Steel Europe and Stainless.
                                                                                                                                         Conclusion & Action: For the time being, we reiterate our Hold recommendation
                                                                                                                                         and provide an update after today’s conference call.




Page 8 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                                    European Securities Network
                                                                                                                                 Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Zurich Financial Services
Switzerland/Insurance                                                                                                                                                         Analyser
Zurich Financial Services (Hold)

Hold                                                                                                                                       Q2 11 CC feedback: strong release
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: CHF                                                                                            160.10                         The facts: the management discussed the release in a CC yesterday.
closing price as of 11/08/2011
                                                                                                                                           Our analysis: bottom line included USD 441m capital gain on the disposal of 5%
Target price: CHF                                                                                           209.00                         of New China Life which took place in mid June. This was not included in our
Target Price unchanged                                                                                                                     projections on the back of the company’ statement released in February, as we
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                      ZURZn.S/ZURN VX                     said yesterday. From an operating point of view, general insurance performed very
                                                                                                                                           well, with CR at 95.3% vs >100% forecast by consensus. The management
Market capitalisation (CHFm)                                                                                             23,469            explained this nice performance with the strong repricing and pruning of portfolio
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                    147            above all, though stressing some favourable seasonality effect. Farmers
Free float                                                                                                                100%
                                                                                                                                           Exchanges also performed very well.
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                     733,433
                                                                                                                                           E = Akros estimates, A = actual
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                         216
Price high 12 mth (CHF)                                                                                               256.74                USD m                            Q2 11E            Y/Y %Chg              Q2 11A            Y/Y %Chg
Price low 12 mth (CHF)                                                                                                144.90                BOP before tax                    936                 -9%                 1,283               25%
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                    -20.27%                 o/w General insurance             456                -40%                  830                10%
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                    -31.93%                 o/w Global life                   360                 -2%                  366                -1%
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                   -27.00%                 o/w Farmers                       290                -24%                  349                -9%
                                                                                                                                            profit                            702                 -1%                 1,328               88%
Key financials (USD)                                                      12/10                  12/11e                  12/12e
Life Gross premiums (m)                                                  12,292                  12,292                  12,596
                                                                                                                                            Sh. equity (*)                   30,675               8%                 31,153               9%
Non-Life Gross prem.(m)                                                  37,261                  36,334                  35,550            Source: BANCA AKROS estimates - Note: BOP = business operating profit as stated, (*) incl. preferred shares,
Total Net Revenues (m)                                                   67,324                  60,481                  62,050            preview restated
EBIT (m)                                                                  4,693                   4,759                   5,270
Net Profit (adj.) (m)                                                     3,434                   3,377                   3,813             General insurance        Q1 10       Q2 10       Q3 10        Q4 10      Q1 11       Q2 11      Q211E
Shareholders Equity (m)                                                  31,509                  32,218                  33,433
ANAV (m)                                                                  6,259                   4,965                   4,177
                                                                                                                                            reported CR              99.0%       96.9%       97.4%       98.3%      103.6%       95.3%      100.0%
ROE (adj.) (%)                                                              11.8                    11.1                    12.1            reserve release           3.5%        4.9%        3.2%         7.3%       3.8%        4.6%        4.0%
Combined ratio (%)                                                          97.9                    99.6                    96.5            nat cat                  -2.8%        0.0%        0.0%        -1.1%      -6.8%       -1.1%       -3.0%
P/E (adj.)                                                                  10.4                     9.1                     8.1            large claims             -6.6%       -8.1%       -7.9%       -11.3%      -8.4%       -9.4%       -8.0%
P/BV                                                                         1.1                     1.0                     0.9            = underlying CR          93.1%       93.7%       92.7%       93.2%       92.2%       89.3%       93.0%
P/ANAV                                                                       5.7                     6.2                     7.4
                                                                                                                                           Source: BANCA AKROS estimates
P/EbV                                                                        1.0                     0.9                     0.9
Dividend Yield                                                             8.7%                    7.9%                    8.3%
EPS (adj.)                                                                23.43                   23.04                   26.01
BVPS                                                                     214.95                  219.79                  228.08            Conclusion & Action: we have revised our full year forecasts upwards, including
ANAVPS                                                                    42.70                   33.87                   28.50
                                                                                                                                           the capital gain from the China Life disposal and better underwriting results at the
EbVPS                                                                    233.97                  233.97                  233.97
DPS                                                                       18.20                   16.51                   17.33            general insurance segment. Our EPS forecast rises by 21% from USD19 to USD
                                                                                                                                           23. We see big upside to this current stock mkt price, if markets normalise.
                                                                                                                                           However, even in this high uncertain context, Zurich looks relatively safe, it has a
  vvdsvdv sdy
                                                                                                                                           relatively low exposure to Eurozone periphery countries and its solvency remains
  240
                                                                                                                                           very strong.
  220


  200


  180


  160


  140
        Jul 10     Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11    Feb 11   Mar 11     Apr 11   May 11   Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11


                                               ZURICH FINANCIAL SERVICES                    SMI (Rebased)
 Source: Factset




Analyst(s):
Marco Cavalleri, Banca Akros
marco.cavalleri@bancaakros.it
+39 02 4344 4022




Page 9 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                                      European Securities Network
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Advanced Vision Technology
Germany/General Industrials                                                                                                                                            Analyser
Advanced Vision Technology (Buy)

Buy                                                                                                                                        Good Q2’11 figures, on track to meet the FY guidance
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR                                                                                                      3.25                 The facts: AVT published its Q2 results yesterday, we reiterate Buy. (For further
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                             details, please refer to the flash note we published this morning).
Target price: EUR                                                                                                     5.00                 Our analysis:
Target Price unchanged
                                                                                                                                           Good Q2’11 results above estimates: In Q2’11, sales increased by 14% YoY (+6%
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                        AVTE.DE/VSJ GR                    QoQ) to USD11.2m (e. USD10.8m). This is the fourth consecutive QoQ increase.
                                                                                                                                           Sales growth was primarily attributable to increase in the commercial printing
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                                  17
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                       5
                                                                                                                                           segment. Gross margin was down YoY (-90bps to 49.2%) mainly due to
Free float                                                                                                                  49%            unfavourable product mix and fx impact, but as Opex growth was well kept under
                                                                                                                                           control (+8% YoY to USD4.8m), reported EBIT increased by 54% YoY to
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                          2,845
                                                                                                                                           USD0.7m (e.USD0.5m), translating into 6.3% EBIT margin, the highest level since
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                             0
                                                                                                                                           Q2’08. At the end of Q2’11, the net cash position amounted to USD10.3m, up from
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                   4.22
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                    2.71
                                                                                                                                           USD10.0m at the end of Q1’11.
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                      -16.67%              FY11 Guidance reiterated: The management re-iterated its FY11 guidance
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                      -16.67%              expecting revenues of USD43-44m and net profit of USD2.5-3.0m. Maintaining
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                       0.00%              sales & EBIT level of Q2’11 both in Q3 and Q4 would bring the company to report
                                                                                                                                           sales of USD44m (+10%YoY) and USD2.5m net profit, which remain our
Key financials (USD)                                                    12/10                  12/11e                    12/12e
Sales (m)                                                                   40                      44                        49
                                                                                                                                           estimates for the full year. In our view, company’s guidance looks well supported
EBITDA (m)                                                                   1                       4                         5           by a 16% order booking increase in Q2 YoY (book to bill ratio of 1.1x) and
EBITDA margin                                                           3.2%                    8.1%                      9.8%             USD16.7m order backlog (up 42% YoY). For the rest of the year, we would expect
EBIT (m)                                                                     0                       3                         4           Q4 to be slightly stronger both in terms of revenue and profitability than Q3.
EBIT margin                                                             0.9%                    6.1%                      8.0%
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                         1                       3                         4           Recession? -So far no sign of deceleration- According to the CEO there is no
ROCE                                                                    6.5%                   18.9%                     23.8%             visible sign of a deceleration of the positive trend in the packaging & label market
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                       (11)                    (12)                      (13)           (over 2/3 of the business). Interestingly, the commercial printing market which has
Net Debt/Equity                                                          -0.6                    -0.6                      -0.6
                                                                                                                                           been barely moving up from its bottom since capex in that business were down by
Debt/EBITDA                                                               -8.6                    -3.4                      -2.8
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                                2.3                   59.1                      96.4
                                                                                                                                           over 70% in the past recession, is showing signs of revival. New production lines
EV/Sales                                                                   0.3                     0.3                       0.2           are being put on stream and new shifts are being added. This points toward a
EV/EBITDA                                                                  9.1                     3.6                       2.3           market rebound at the end of FY11 unless sudden deterioration of the global
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                           6.2                     3.2                       2.2           economy.
EV/EBIT                                                                  32.5                      4.7                       2.9
P/E (adj.)                                                               15.2                      7.6                       6.5           A well-fuelled new product launches agenda: The CEO flagged very positive
P/BV                                                                       1.3                     1.2                       1.1           feedback received from the presentation of the SpectraLab at the FTA Forum in
OpFCF yield                                                            -1.3%                    5.2%                      8.0%             May. This product is still in the testing phase and will be officially launched in
Dividend yield                                                          0.0%                    0.0%                      2.7%
EPS (adj.)                                                               0.28                    0.61                      0.71
                                                                                                                                           Q4’11. It is expected to fuel continued revenues growth in the coming years. We
BVPS                                                                     3.29                    3.76                      4.26            estimate the addressable market size at USD90m. Moreover, the PrintVision/
DPS                                                                      0.00                    0.00                      0.12            Neptune and a new solution for decorated metal could also be launched in Q4’11.
                                                                                                                                           Estimates adjustments and valuation: We have basically left our estimates
  4.8 sdy
   vvdsvdv


  4.6
                                                                                                                                           unchanged and therefore re-iterate BUY and our TP of EUR5.0. 2011 and 2012
  4.4
  4.2
                                                                                                                                           EV/EBIT multiples of 4.7x and 2.9x are highly attractive, and AVT holds a
  4.0
  3.8
                                                                                                                                           comfortable net cash position which translates 42% of company’s market cap.
  3.6
  3.4                                                                                                                                      Conclusion & Action: AVT is on track to meet its FY11 guidance. So far, there is
  3.2
  3.0                                                                                                                                      no visible sign of an upcoming recession in the business, and the company stands
  2.8
  2.6                                                                                                                                      in front of important product launches. Valuation multiples continue to look highly
        Jul 10   Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11   Mar 11     Apr 11    May 11     Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11



 Source: Factset
                                    ADVANCED VISION TECHNOLOGY                  Stoxx General Industrials (Rebased)
                                                                                                                                           attractive (EV/EBIT 2011/12 of 4.7x/2.9x), the current net cash position translate
                                                                                                                                           into c. 40% of AVT’s current market cap, we reiterate Buy, TP at EUR5.0.

Analyst(s):
Edouard Aubery, Equinet Bank
edouard.aubery@equinet-ag.de
+49 69 58997-439
Holger Schmidt, CEFA Equinet Bank
holger.schmidt@equinet-ag.de
+49 69 58 99 74 32




Page 10 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                     European Securities Network
                                                                                                                                   Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Ansaldo STS
Italy/Industrial Engineering                                                                                                                                             Analyser
Ansaldo STS (Accumulate)

Accumulate                                                                                                                                   Honolulu contract ruling expected on 15 August
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR                                                                                                     5.77                    The facts: On Monday 15, the Hawaii state Department of Commerce and
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                               Consumer Affairs is scheduled to give a ruling on the appeal promoted by
Target price: EUR                                                                                                    9.00                    Bombardier and Sumitomo against the City of Honolulu for having chosen Ansaldo
Target Price unchanged                                                                                                                       Honolulu consortium for the supply of signalling systems, rolling stock and
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                                                            operation and maintenance for the city’s rapid transit system.
                                                                                                                 STS.MI/STS IM
                                                                                                                                             Our analysis: Ansaldo Honolulu (a JV between Ansaldo STS and AnsaldoBreda)
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                                   808           was awarded a USD 574m (~EUR 400m out of which EUR 260m pertaining to
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                       140           STS) contract on 21 March; immediately after, the losing contenders filed two
Free float                                                                                                                    56%
                                                                                                                                             separate protests alleging that Ansaldo didn’t deserve the contract.
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                       802,727
                                                                                                                                             Monday’s ruling is a crucial step for the Honolulu contract, which has not yet been
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                             7
                                                                                                                                             booked by STS; if the court confirms the outcome of the tender closed in March,
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                   9.60
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                    5.54
                                                                                                                                             then a couple of scenarios are possible:
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                      -22.13%                 1.   Sumitomo and/or Bombardier desist from further appeals and the city of
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                      -34.58%
                                                                                                                                                   Honolulu signs the contract with Ansaldo Honolulu.
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                     -28.99%
                                                                                                                                              2.   Sumitomo and/or Bombardier go on with their opposition and they appeal to
Key financials (EUR)                                                12/10                         12/11e                    12/12e
Sales (m)                                                           1,284                          1,221                     1,280                 the Circuit Court (they will be given 10 days to do so); in that case, a judge
EBITDA (m)                                                            157                            131                       138                 would have 30 days to issue a decision to affirm, remand, reverse or modify
EBITDA margin                                                      12.2%                          10.7%                     10.8%                  the state DCCA’s decision, otherwise, the decision would stand. The
EBIT (m)                                                              137                            116                       123
EBIT margin                                                        10.7%                           9.5%                      9.6%                  companies would still have the option of appealing a Circuit Court decision
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                   95                             79                        84                 to an appellate court within 30 days. If the protesting companies file a further
ROCE                                                            -1818.8%                         177.4%                    166.5%                  appeal with the Circuit Court, we argue that the final decision may be
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                 (318)                          (280)                     (308)
Net Debt/Equity                                                      -0.8                           -0.7                      -0.7                 delayed to mid October.
Debt/EBITDA                                                           -2.0                           -2.1                      -2.2          In any of these scenarios, we believe that the city of Honolulu will ask Ansaldo
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                          32.8                        (264.3)                   (283.8)
                                                                                                                                             Honolulu any possible guarantee in order to avoid delays in the supply of the
EV/Sales                                                               0.5                            0.3                       0.3
EV/EBITDA                                                              4.5                            3.3                       2.7          rolling stock: the announcement that AnsaldoBreda is still facing severe
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                       4.5                            3.3                       2.7          timing/customer satisfaction problems with some legacy contracts (27 July) has
EV/EBIT                                                                5.1                            3.7                       3.0          spread fears that the contract (not yet signed) may incur some extra-costs across
P/E (adj.)                                                           11.7                           10.2                        9.6          Honolulu’s Authority for Rapid Transportation board.
P/BV                                                                   2.9                            1.9                       1.7
OpFCF yield                                                         7.4%                           5.9%                     11.9%            Conclusion & Action: The DCCA ruling is important, but it is unlikely to be the
Dividend yield                                                      4.9%                           3.4%                      3.6%            definitive step for the Honolulu contract award; in any case, a favourable decision
EPS (adj.)                                                           0.79                           0.56                      0.60
BVPS                                                                 3.17                           2.97                      3.37
                                                                                                                                             would be good news for STS.
DPS                                                                  0.28                           0.20                      0.21


  11
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  10


   9


   8


   7


   6


   5
       Jul 10    Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11     Mar 11      Apr 11    May 11    Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11


                                             ANSALDO STS               Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)
 Source: Factset




Analyst(s):
Gabriele Gambarova, Banca Akros
gabriele.gambarova@bancaakros.it
+39 02 43 444 289




Page 11 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                        European Securities Network
                                                                                                                                     Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Bauer AG
Germany/Industrial Engineering                                                                                                                                             Analyser
Bauer AG (Buy)

Buy                                                                                                                                   2Q results in line – lowered guidance 11
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR                                                                                           18.80                      The facts: This morning, Bauer Group (B5A GR) reported 2Q results which were
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                        broadly in line with our expectations in terms of sales and earnings. Yet, order
Target price: EUR                                                                                          40.00                      intake fell more than 20% yoy and was thus much below our expectation. As a
Target Price unchanged                                                                                                                result management of the latter, management adjusted its full year guidance.
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                    B5AG.de/B5A GR
                                                                                                                                      Bauer Group: 2Q 11 results

Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                             322          in EUR m                     2Q 11   2Q 11e   2Q 10   YoY    QoQ       1H11      1H 11e      YoY
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                  17          Order book                   671.1   768.3    654.8    2%     0%       671.1       0.0         2%
Free float                                                                                                               0%           Orders                       331.9   392.0    424.2   -22%   -9%       696.1       0.0        -6%
                                                                                                                                      Sales rev's                  294.7   295.0    313.1    -6%   15%       550.1      550.4        4%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                  37,929
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                      1               Adj. EBIT                    21.8    21.4     22.0    -1%    233%      28.3       27.9        2%
                                                                                                                                      Adj. EBIT margin             7.4%    7.2%     7.0%                     5.1%       5.1%
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                           38.49
                                                                                                                                      Net income post min.          8.9     8.3      8.4    5%     nm         5.6        5.4       78%
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                            18.67
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Source: Company data, equinet Research
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                               -37.87%
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                               -48.01%
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                              -41.96%                Our analysis: Bauer reported 2Q results, which display yoy declines across the
                                                                                                                                      metrics: Accordingly, sales revenues in 2Q 11 declined by 6% yoy also translating
Key financials (EUR)                                                    12/10                12/11e                 12/12e            into a slight decline of -1% yoy in EBIT even though the underlying profitability has
Sales (m)                                                               1,132                 1,225                  1,364            risen slightly. The corresponding net income of EUR 8.9m was however slightly
EBITDA (m)                                                                167                   191                    233
EBITDA margin                                                          14.8%                 15.6%                  17.1%
                                                                                                                                      ahead of our forecasts (deviation stemming from minorities estimate).
EBIT (m)                                                                   90                   106                    138            Segments: Bauer’s Construction activities seem to have been burdened by the
EBIT margin                                                             7.9%                  8.7%                  10.1%             postponement of some projects in Europe, UK and Middle East. Whilst sales of
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                       35                    49                     69
ROCE                                                                    6.0%                  6.8%                   8.5%
                                                                                                                                      Equipment also haven’t shown a considerable improvement despite the recent
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                       456                   521                    501            pick up in order intake. Both segments Construction (special foundation works)
Net Debt/Equity                                                           1.0                   1.1                    1.0            and Equipment had to record sales declines of 9% and 13% yoy, respectively
Debt/EBITDA                                                                2.7                   2.7                    2.1           which could not be offset by a +30% yoy increase in the Resources segment. The
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                                5.2                   6.2                    7.1
                                                                                                                                      lower volume in Construction led to a falling EBIT margin (-140bps) whilst the
EV/Sales                                                                   1.0                   0.8                    0.7
EV/EBITDA                                                                  6.8                   4.8                    3.9
                                                                                                                                      EBIT margin in the Equipment segment rose 190bps to 12.2% despite lower
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                           6.8                   4.8                    3.9           volumes. The latter shows the positive effects of increased standardisation and
EV/EBIT                                                                  12.7                    8.7                    6.6           cost savings efforts but are also the result of a more favourable sales mix.
P/E (adj.)                                                               17.3                    6.6                    4.7
P/BV                                                                       1.5                   0.8                    0.7
                                                                                                                                      Lowered guidance 11: Order intake in 2Q fell 22% yoy and was thus much below
OpFCF yield                                                            -1.9%                 10.6%                  17.1%             our expectation. Ongoing political unrest in Middle Eastern countries, delays to
Dividend yield                                                          3.2%                  4.3%                   5.3%             construction projects in other countries and also recent financial market turbulence
EPS (adj.)                                                               2.04                  2.86                   4.00            which are likely to have a negative impact on construction/infrastructure projects,
BVPS                                                                    24.09                 24.76                  28.24
DPS                                                                      0.60                  0.80                   1.00
                                                                                                                                      management adjusted its full year guidance. For the FY 11 it now expects total
                                                                                                                                      Group revenues of EUR 1.35 - 1.4bn (was: EUR 1.4bn) with a net profit of EUR 40
  45
   vvdsvdv sdy
                                                                                                                                      - 45m (was: > EUR 45m) and compares to a consensus net income of EUR 47m
  40
                                                                                                                                      and our expectation of EUR 49m.
  35                                                                                                                                  Conclusion: Results for 2Q were in line, whilst the lower guidance (old guidance
  30                                                                                                                                  had been reiterated at the recent AGM) was a disappointment even though the
  25                                                                                                                                  order of magnitude remains limited. As a result of ongoing financial market
  20                                                                                                                                  turbulences and likely increased austerity impact we see downside to our and
  15
       Jul 10    Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11   Mar 11   Apr 11   May 11   Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11
                                                                                                                                      consensus estimates for 12e (i.e. consensus EBIT 12e of EUR 127m and our
 Source: Factset
                                                       BAUER AG             SDAX (Rebased)
                                                                                                                                      EBIT 12e of EUR 138m now seem to high). In an initial calculation we would
                                                                                                                                      expect EBIT’ 12e to be ~ EUR 100m thereby implying EPS in 12e to be ~ EUR 2.6
                                                                                                                                      vs. consensus of EUR 3.48). By applying a PER 12e multiple of 8-10x we
Analyst(s):                                                                                                                           calculate a fair value for Bauer shares of ~ EUR 21 to EUR 26m even though the
Holger Schmidt, CEFA, Equinet Bank                                                                                                    negative sentiment for sovereign debt and insolvency of states has intensified. We
holger.schmidt@equinet-ag.de                                                                                                          thus reiterate our Buy recommendation but will have to adjust our forecasts.
+49 69 58 99 74 32                                                                                                                    Accordingly we advice investors to make use of a further potential negative share
                                                                                                                                      price development.




Page 12 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                            European Securities Network
                                                                                                                              Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Carl Zeiss Meditec
Germany/Healthcare                                                                                                                                                   Analyser
Carl Zeiss Meditec (Accumulate)

Accumulate                                                                                                                               A strong Q3 2010/11 reporting in line though
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR                                                                                             14.11                       The facts: This morning, Carl Zeiss released its Q3 2010/11 figures. CC at 09h30
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                           CET (+49 (0) 695 8999 0509 / code: 900750).
Target price: EUR                                                                                            18.00                       Our analysis:
Target Price unchanged
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                     AFXG.DE/AFX GY                     EUR m                Q3 10/11          Q3 09/10                 %          equinet      Consensus
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                           1,147             Sales                      179               170               6%              178               177
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                  81             EBIT                      24.3              20.7              18%             23.7              23.8
Free float                                                                                                              35%              - EBIT margin           13.6%             12.2%                nm           13.4%             13.4%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                        61,988            EBT                       25.0              16.8              49%             24.3               n.a.
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                            1            Net profit                16.9              10.8              57%             15.5               n.a.
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                 16.50            EPS (€)                   0.20              0.13              54%             0.19              0.20
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                  11.08
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                      -9.49%                                              So urce: equinet Research, co nsensus pro vided by A FX IR Directo r
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                      -9.84%             Q3 Group results (in line): Sales came in up 6% at EUR179m (+10% at constant
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                     21.22%             fx) in line with expectations. EBIT margin came slightly above our estimates, up by
                                                                                                                                         140bps YoY. EPS came in at EUR0.20, (slightly above our estimates) surging by
Key financials (EUR)                                                    09/10                09/11e                    09/12e
                                                                                                                                         more than 50% YoY. Op. CF stood at EUR3.7m vs. EUR18.0m in Q309/10 due to
Sales (m)                                                                 677                   741                        786
EBITDA (m)                                                                108                   123                        132           a significant increase in NWC (stockpiling of inventories and increase in
EBITDA margin                                                          15.9%                 16.6%                     16.8%             receivables).
EBIT (m)                                                                   87                   102                        111
                                                                                                                                         Business Units: Mcrosurgery continue to perform extremely well: In the
EBIT margin                                                            12.8%                 13.8%                     14.1%
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                       55                    70                         74
                                                                                                                                         Microsurgery segment, sales increased by 21% YoY to EUR77m. Revenues in
ROCE                                                                   15.0%                 17.1%                      18.2%            Ophthalmic Systems segment, decreased by 6% to EUR78m, nothing alarming
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                     (301)                 (322)                      (376)           though as sales were flat YoY at constant currency. Sales in Surgical
Net Debt/Equity                                                          -0.5                  -0.5                       -0.5           Ophthalmology totalled EUR25m, up 3% YoY.
Debt/EBITDA                                                               -2.8                  -2.6                       -2.8
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                              29.6                 107.1                    (264.3)           Regional Breakdown: as usual APAC leads the race: Once again, Asia Pacific
EV/Sales                                                                   0.9                   1.1                        1.0          (+15% YoY / 29% of AFX sales) was the top performing region, growth at constant
EV/EBITDA                                                                  5.9                   6.7                        5.9          currency was even higher (+19%). AFX mentioned in its report that no collapse
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                           5.9                   6.7                        5.9
EV/EBIT                                                                    7.3                   8.1                        7.0
                                                                                                                                         was seen in Japan. America (+3% YoY / 36% of AFX sales) continued to develop
P/E (adj.)                                                               17.1                  16.5                       15.5           well when considering the constant currency growth rate of 14%. Growth in Europe
P/BV                                                                       1.6                   1.9                        1.8          continued to lag behind up only 1% YoY.
OpFCF yield                                                             5.7%                  5.7%                       6.5%
Dividend yield                                                          3.9%                  1.8%                       1.9%
                                                                                                                                         Outlook: AFX re-iterated the FY10/11 guidance, aiming at sales of EUR720-750m,
EPS (adj.)                                                               0.68                  0.86                       0.91           and improved profitability vs. the level of last year (FY09/10: 12.8%). The current
BVPS                                                                     7.04                  7.34                       8.00           consensus (Thomson) stands at sales of EUR742m (equinet: EUR741m) and
DPS                                                                      0.55                  0.26                       0.27           EBIT of EUR101m -13.6% margin- (equinet: EUR102m -13.8% margin).
                                                                                                                                         After revenues have risen by 13% in the first 9 months, our and consensus
  17
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  16
                                                                                                                                         estimates imply that Q4 top line should be flat YoY. Achieving the upper end of the
  15
                                                                                                                                         sales guidance would imply 5% growth in Q4 YoY. Note that comp will be tough in
  14                                                                                                                                     Q4, but at first look not particularly tougher than in Q3. Hence, it seems to us that
  13                                                                                                                                     AFX should achieve the upper end of its sales guidance.
  12

  11
                                                                                                                                         Conclusion & Action: AFX reported a strong set of Q3 figures one touch above
  10
       Jul 10    Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11   Mar 11   Apr 11     May 11   Jun 11    Jul 11   Aug 11
                                                                                                                                         expectations. The company re-iterated its sales FY10/11 guidance of
 Source: Factset
                                                 CARL ZEISS MEDITEC             Tec Dax (Rebased)                                        EUR720/750m, the top end of which should be achievable, in our view. We re-
                                                                                                                                         iterate our positive view.
Analyst(s):
Edouard Aubery, Equinet Bank
edouard.aubery@equinet-ag.de
+49 69 58997-439
Martin Possienke, CEFA Equinet Bank
martin.possienke@equinet-ag.de
+49 69 58997 412




Page 13 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                                European Securities Network
                                                                                                                                 Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
HHLA
Germany/Industrial Transportation & Motorways                                                                                                                          Analyser
HHLA (Accumulate)

Accumulate                                                                                                                               Solid Q2 2011 results and guidance increase
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR                                                                                              24.80                      The facts: HHLA published Q2 2011 results this morning. The company is hosting
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                           a conference call at 14:00 CEST today.
Target price: EUR                                                                                             36.00
Target Price unchanged
Reuters/Bloomberg
                                                                                                                                          EURm              Q2 2011        Q2 2010       yoy       equinet    Consensus
                                                                                                    HHFGn.DE/HHFA GY
                                                                                                                                          Sales                299.6         259.4       15%         289.3         289.4
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                           1,735
                                                                                                                                          EBITDA                74.2           69.0       8%           75.8          76.2
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                  70
Free float                                                                                                              28%               EBIT                  46.1           42.6       8%           45.2          47.2
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                   111,852                 Net profit            17.1           15.9       8%           17.1          14.8
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                         3                EPS (€)               0.25           0.23      10%           0.24          0.21
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                              35.81
                                                                                                                                          Source: Company data, equinet
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                               24.03
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                  -13.06%
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                  -22.73%                Our analysis:
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                 -11.43%
                                                                                                                                         In Q2 2011, HHLA reported a sales increase of 15% to EUR299.6m well above
Key financials (EUR)                                                    12/10                  12/11e                  12/12e            our expectations of EUR289.3m. EBITDA came in at EUR74.2m, EBIT at
Sales (m)                                                               1,044                   1,167                   1,271            EUR46.1m, net profit at EUR17.1m and EPS at EUR0.25 all in line with
EBITDA (m)                                                                290                     338                     391            expectations.
EBITDA margin                                                          27.8%                   29.0%                   30.8%
EBIT (m)                                                                  180                     218                     264            Strong volume growth of 27.5%: The container throughput in Q2 2011
EBIT margin                                                            17.2%                   18.7%                   20.8%             increased by 27.5% to 1,759 thousand TEU much better than our forecast of 19%
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                       70                      87                     111            to 1,642.2 thousand TEU. Consequently, HHLA increased the full year outlook.
ROCE                                                                   11.0%                   12.6%                   14.9%
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                       214                     212                     151            Outlook increased: HHLA increased its full year guidance in container throughput
Net Debt/Equity                                                           0.4                     0.3                     0.2            to a growth of 15-20% from above 10% before (equinet forecast: 16.0%), sales
Debt/EBITDA                                                                0.7                     0.6                     0.4           to growth in the region of 15% from 10-15% before (equinet forecast: 11.8%),
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                                9.6                     9.5                   10.4            but stick to the EBIT margin guidance of an improvement compared to last year’s
EV/Sales                                                                   2.8                     2.0                     1.8
EV/EBITDA                                                                  9.9                     6.7                     5.9
                                                                                                                                         16.5% (equinet forecast: 18.0%).
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                           9.9                     6.7                     5.9           Conclusion & Action: HHLA reported a solid Q2 2011 with a volume and sales
EV/EBIT                                                                  16.0                    10.4                      8.7
                                                                                                                                         development above expectations and profitability in line with expectations. Cost
P/E (adj.)                                                               34.6                    19.9                    15.6
P/BV                                                                       4.3                     2.9                     2.6           pressure is obviously an issue. Nevertheless, we are positively surprised. For the
OpFCF yield                                                             4.7%                    9.2%                   10.1%             time being, we confirm our price target of EUR36.0 and reiterate our Accumulate
Dividend yield                                                          2.2%                    2.8%                    3.2%
                                                                                                                                         recommendation. We will streamline our forecasts after today’s conference call.
EPS (adj.)                                                               1.00                    1.25                    1.59
BVPS                                                                     8.00                    8.70                    9.59
DPS                                                                      0.55                    0.70                    0.80


  38
   vvdsvdv sdy




  36

  34

  32

  30

  28

  26

  24
       Jul 10    Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11   Mar 11     Apr 11    May 11   Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11


                                                          HHLA            MDAX (Rebased)
 Source: Factset




Analyst(s):
Jochen Rothenbacher, CEFA, Equinet Bank
jochen.rothenbacher@equinet-ag.de
+49 69 58997 415




Page 14 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                  European Securities Network
                                                                                                                                 Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Interseroh
Germany/Support Services                                                                                                                                                      Analyser
Interseroh (Hold)

Hold                                                                                                                                      The benefit of diversification – strong scrap steel in H1
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR                                                                                               49.26                      The facts: INTERSEROH reported solid H1 11 results with EBIT of EUR 27.3m
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                            gaining 5% y-y compared to adjusted EBIT of c. EUR 26m in H1 10. The latter is
Target price: EUR                                                                                              50.00                      adjusted for EUR 10.7m 1-off gains on the disposal of French recovered paper
from Target Price: EUR                                                                                          40.00                     activities included in last year’s reported EBIT of EUR 36.7m in H1 10. EPS of
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                                                         EUR 1.82 was significantly ahead of our estimate of EUR 1.19 on an artificially low
                                                                                                          INSG.DE/ITS GR
                                                                                                                                          tax rate of just 5% reported in H1 11 vs. 26.7% in H1 10.
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                                 485
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                      10          INTERSEROH - Review H1 2011
Free float                                                                                                                  25%           EUR m                              H1 11          H1 10         %             2011e            2010         %          H1 11e
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                           4,293           Ne t s ale s                     1,193.8         967.7        23%           2,288.5        1,939.9         18%         1,561.9
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                              0            o/w Services *                   246.5          209.5        18%             480.5          452.9         6%           235.0
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                   52.63            o/w Recovered Materials *          83.4          74.9        11%             161.8          139.0        16%             82.0
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                    37.50            o/w Steel, Metals *              887.5          698.2        27%           1,691.8        1,384.5        22%           860.0
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                        -3.16%            EBIT **                             27.3          36.7        -26%             54.8           62.6        -12%            25.5
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                        -4.53%             Margin (%)                        2.3%          3.8%                         2.4%           3.2%                        3.3%
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                        8.26%             o/w Services                        5.0          14.7        -66%             19.5           22.7       -14%              8.5
                                                                                                                                           o/w Recovered Materials             1.6           6.4        -75%              4.9            4.5        8%               2.5
Key financials (EUR)                                                      12/10                    12/11e               12/12e             o/w Steel, Metals                  20.8          15.7        32%              32.5           35.4        -8%             15.1
Sales (m)                                                                 1,940                     2,289                2,372            EBT                                 20.6          29.3        -30%             42.4           45.7        -7%             18.8
EBITDA (m)                                                                    87                       79                   84            Net income                          17.9          20.1        -11%             26.7           31.8        n.m.            13.2
EBITDA margin                                                             4.5%                      3.5%                 3.5%             EPS (EUR)                           1.82          2.04        -11%             2.72           3.24        n.m .           1.19
EBIT (m)                                                                      63                       55                   59
                                                                                                                                                              So urce: IN TER SER OH , equinet (* befo re co nso lidatio n, ** H 1 2010/2010 incl. EUR 10.73m 1-o ff gains)
EBIT margin                                                               3.2%                      2.4%                 2.5%
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                          32                       27                   30            Our analysis: Scrap steel/metals recycling saves the day: However, a better
ROCE                                                                     10.5%                      8.8%                 9.3%
                                                                                                                                          than expected EBIT-contribution from Steel/Metals (+32% y-y to EUR 20.8m vs.
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                         138                       122                   97
Net Debt/Equity                                                             0.7                       0.6                  0.4            our estimate of EUR 15.1m ) slightly more than compensated weak results
Debt/EBITDA                                                                  1.6                       1.5                  1.2           primarily in the Services segment. Services margins are still suffering from the
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                                  5.7                       5.5                  6.2           ailing sales packaging market in Germany (Duales System) despite rising
EV/Sales                                                                     0.3                       0.3                  0.2
                                                                                                                                          revenues. Note that the reported drop of 66% y-y in Services-EBIT is exaggerated.
EV/EBITDA                                                                    6.6                       7.7                  7.0
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                             6.6                       7.7                  7.0
                                                                                                                                          Excluding estimated positive 1-off gains of EUR 7m included in H1 10, services
EV/EBIT                                                                      9.2                     11.2                 10.1            EBIT still dropped by 33% y-y.
P/E (adj.)                                                                 13.6                      18.1                 16.2
                                                                                                                                          Outlook: Management expects sales in Scrap/Metals to gain 25% y-y, virtually in-
P/BV                                                                         2.4                       2.4                  2.1
OpFCF yield                                                              -6.5%                      4.8%                 6.7%
                                                                                                                                          line with our view. However, projected disproportionate segment earnings growth
Dividend yield                                                            1.0%                      1.2%                 1.4%             leaves significant upside to our estimates. However, weak services earnings may
EPS (adj.)                                                                 3.24                      2.72                 3.04            compensate the positive effects. Margin pressure still leaves significant downside
BVPS                                                                      18.27                     20.49                22.93            to our estimated 14% decline in Services EBIT. Hence, group estimates may
DPS                                                                        0.50                      0.60                 0.70
                                                                                                                                          remain unchanged at EBIT-level while composition changes.
  58ds v dv s dy
   vv
                                                                                                                                          Conclusion & Action: H1 benefited from INTERSEROH’s diversified business
  56
  54
                                                                                                                                          model. Fixed gross compensation payment of EUR 3.94 / share remains the key
  52
  50
                                                                                                                                          value driver, though, yielding 8% currently. Stick to HOLD.
  48
  46
  44
  42
  40
  38
  36
       Jul 10      Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11     Mar 11   Apr 11   May 11   Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11


                                                        INTERSEROH                CDAX (Rebased)
 Source: Factset




Analyst(s):
Michael Schaefer, Equinet Bank
michael.schaefer@equinet-ag.de
+49 69 58997 419




Page 15 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                                              European Securities Network
                                                                                                                                  Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
IVG Immobilien AG
Germany/Real Estate                                                                                                                                                       Analyser
IVG Immobilien AG (Hold)

Hold                                                                                                                                      Profit warning downgrade to Hold
from Buy
Share price: EUR                                                                                                 3.70                     The facts: IVG published Q2 2011 results this morning. The company is hosting a
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                            conference call at 14:00 CEST today.
Target price: EUR                                                                                                4.00
from Target Price: EUR                                                                                            7.00
Reuters/Bloomberg
                                                                                                                                           EURm                Q2 2011        Q2 2010          yoy        equinet   Consensus
                                                                                                        IVGG.DE/IVG GY
                                                                                                                                           Sales                  105.6          412.8        -74%          146.5         145.0
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                                513
                                                                                                                                           EBIT                  (13.2)           84.4          nm           29.6          30.0
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                    139
Free float                                                                                                                 60%             Net profit            (76.8)           18.0          nm         (12.4)             -
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                   445,807                  EPS (€)               (0.56)           0.08          nm         (0.15)             -
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                         3                 Source: IVG, Dow Jones, Equinet estimates
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                               7.71
                                                                                                                                          Our analysis:
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                3.41
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                  -28.65%                 Q2 2011: Sales came in at EUR105.6m below expectations of about EUR146m.
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                  -39.31%                 As a reminder, sales are highly influenced by asset disposals and are of minor
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                 -30.56%                 importance for IVG. EBIT was EUR-13.2m due to significant devaluations and
                                                                                                                                          missed expectations of about EUR30m significantly. Consequently, the reported
Key financials (EUR)                                                       12/10               12/11e                   12/12e            EPS of EUR-0.56 is also significantly below our forecast of EUR-0.15.
Gross Rental Income (m)                                                      266                   239                     217
EBITDA (m)                                                                   185                   176                     174            Divisional EBIT distribution in Q2 2011e: Real estate EUR35.9m (equinet
EBITDA margin                                                             60.6%                64.1%                    68.9%             forecast: EUR37.6m), Development EUR-74.0m (equinet forecast: EUR-
Portfolio Result (m)                                                           53                   50                     110            16.6m), Caverns EUR28.4m (equinet forecast: EUR9.5m), Institutional Funds
Net Financial Result                                                       (217)                (185)                    (170)
                                                                                                                                          EUR4.6m (equinet forecast: EUR5.3m), Private funds EUR-0.8 (equinet forecast:
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                           (9)                  28                       52
Funds From Operations                                                          15                    1                       26           EUR0.5m). The losses in development are due to an impairment loss for the
EPS (adj.)                                                                  -0.07                 0.20                     0.37           project The Squaire of EUR73.8m, which resulted from cost increases during the
DPS                                                                         0.00                 0.00                     0.00            final invoicing of the project.
IFRS NAVPS                                                                   7.02                 7.33                     7.74
EPRA NAVPS                                                                   5.92                 5.82                     6.19
                                                                                                                                          The Squaire: A further major tenant has been acquired for The Squaire in addition
Premium/(Discount)                                                        (8.1%)              (49.5%)                  (52.2%)            to KPMG and Hilton in Deutsche Lufthansa. On 8 August 2011, Deutsche
Earnings adj. yield                                                           nm                5.4%                    10.0%             Lufthansa signed a letter of intent to rent around 18,500 sqm in the premium
Dividend yield                                                             0.0%                 0.0%                     0.0%             property at Frankfurt Airport. Its occupancy rate has therefore risen to around
EV/EBITDA                                                                   36.7                 32.6                     30.5
                                                                                                                                          82%. The rental agreement with Lufthansa is expected to be finalised short term.
P/E (adj.)                                                                    nm                 18.6                     10.0
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int)                                                    0.8                  0.9                      1.0           Significant decline in NAV: Net asset value including future cavern business
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                        5,966                5,211                    4,752            (NAV adjusted) amounted to EUR8.75 per share as at 30 June 2011 (down
Net Debt/Total Assets                                                     81.8%                76.2%                    75.4%
                                                                                                                                          from EUR9.29). Reported net asset value was EUR6.74 per share down from
                                                                                                                                          EUR7.28m before. The decline as against the previous quarter is due to the
                                                                                                                                          negative results for the quarter.
                                                                                                                                          Profit warning: In light of the value change in the project The Squaire recognised
  8.0 v dv s dy
   v v ds



  7.5
                                                                                                                                          in the first half of 2011 and the slight rise in the interest level, IVG is assuming that
  7.0                                                                                                                                     its consolidated net result will return to positive territory in 2012 at the earliest.
  6.5

  6.0

  5.5
                                                                                                                                          Conclusion & Action: IVG reported a weak Q2 mainly due to new problems at
  5.0
                                                                                                                                          The Squaire (despite the potentially new tenant Lufthansa). NAV dropped
  4.5

  4.0                                                                                                                                     significantly to EUR8.75 from EUR9.29 before. Negotiations for the prolongation of
  3.5

  3.0                                                                                                                                     financing might get more difficult now. To reflect these negative developments, we
        Jul 10    Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10    Dec 10   Jan 11    Feb 11   Mar 11   Apr 11   May 11   Jun 11    Jul 11   Aug 11



 Source: Factset
                                                      IVG IMMOBILIEN AG            MDAX (Rebased)
                                                                                                                                          cut our price target to EUR4.0 (EUR7.0) and downgrade the share to Hold from
                                                                                                                                          Buy.
Analyst(s):
Jochen Rothenbacher, CEFA, Equinet Bank
jochen.rothenbacher@equinet-ag.de
+49 69 58997 415




Page 16 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                        European Securities Network
                                                                                                                                  Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Olvi
Finland/Food & Beverage                                                                                                                                                           Analyser
Olvi (Hold)

Hold                                                                                                                                  Finland and the Baltic countries were good, devaluation
from Reduce                                                                                                                           cut the margin in Belarus
Share price: EUR                                                                                           16.00                      The facts: Olvi’s Q2 operating profit (EUR 10.4m) came in below the consensus
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                        (EUR 12m) as the devaluation of the Belarusian rouble weakened the EBIT
Target price: EUR                                                                                          17.50                      margin. The margin erosion was attributed to an increase in raw material,
Target Price unchanged                                                                                                                packaging, other production and logistics costs as well as in fixed costs in H1 by
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                             OLVAS.HE/OLVAS FH
                                                                                                                                      an average of 50–80% on the previous year. On top of this, there were exchange
                                                                                                                                      rate losses in net financials as a result of the devaluation, and EPS consequently
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                            332           slipped to EUR 0.18 (cons. EUR 0.48).
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                 21
                                                                                                                                      Our analysis: The company maintained the profitability guidance: operating profit
Free float                                                                                                             78%
                                                                                                                                      will remain at the healthy level of 2010 (EUR 30.5m). Olvi also predicted that sales
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                  14,393               volumes and net sales would rise above last year’s. The H1 sales volume, net
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                      0               sales and profitability met the company’s expectations.
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                           19.75
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                            14.08               In Finland and Estonia, the sales and profit developments were encouraging
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                               -11.21%                regarding the latter half of the year. Delivery volumes were up 15.5%, with growth
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                               -14.39%                slightly picking up from the previous quarter (13.1%). Volumes were higher in all
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                4.20%                market areas, but the growth was fastest in Finland (+18%) and the Baltic
                                                                                                                                      countries (+17%). Volumes were up in Belarus as well, by 17%, but the pace was
Key financials (EUR)                                                   12/10                 12/11e                 12/12e            down from the previous quarter’s 30%.
Sales (m)                                                                268                    291                    303
EBITDA (m)                                                                49                     49                      52           Exports from Belarus grew in H1 by 69%, rising to represent 7.2% of Lidskoe
EBITDA margin                                                         18.4%                  16.9%                  17.3%             Pivo’s total sales. Export destination countries were Lithuania, Russia and Poland.
EBIT (m)                                                                  30                     31                      34           We believe the uncertain economic situation makes the country’s internal demand
EBIT margin                                                           11.4%                  10.5%                  11.1%
                                                                                                                                      developments hard to predict. The sharp inflation also raises questions about the
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                      25                     19                      26
ROCE                                                                  14.2%                  14.5%                  14.0%             future profitability level.
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                       39                     44                      49           Conclusion & Action: We lower our EPS projections for 2011 and 2012 by 24%
Net Debt/Equity                                                          0.3                    0.4                    0.4
Debt/EBITDA                                                               0.8                    0.9                    0.9           and 12%. Adjusted for exchange rate losses, this year’s P/E is 12.6 and next
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                             high                   high                   high            year’s 12.7. Next year’s valuation is 14% above that for the peer group of large
EV/Sales                                                                  1.3                    1.3                    1.2           breweries, justifiably in our view. We maintain our target price at EUR 17.5 but,
EV/EBITDA                                                                 7.2                    7.6                    7.2
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                          7.2                    7.6                    7.2
                                                                                                                                      after the share price decline, raise our recommendation to Hold (prev. Reduce).
EV/EBIT                                                                 11.6                   12.2                   11.2
P/E (adj.)                                                              12.9                   17.1                   12.7            Olvi
P/BV                                                                      2.5                    2.7                    2.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Q 2 2 0 11e
OpFCF yield                                                            6.7%                   6.2%                   6.2%
Dividend yield                                                         3.1%                   2.5%                   3.4%             M€                                  Q 2 a Po hj o la   D if f .      C o ns.    Lo w       Hi g h
EPS (adj.)                                                              1.19                   0.94                   1.26            S a le s
BVPS                                                                    6.23                   5.83                   6.69            Finland                              35         32 1  0%                 0         0          0
DPS                                                                     0.50                   0.40                   0.55            Esto nia                             24         24    1%                 0         0          0
                                                                                                                                      Latvia                                12         10 1 7%                 0         0          0
  20
   vvdsvdvsdy
                                                                                                                                      Lithuania                              9          8 1 0%                 0         0          0
  19                                                                                                                                  B elarus                               11        17 -34%                 0         0          0
  18
                                                                                                                                      Eliminatio ns                         -5               ,9
                                                                                                                                                                                       -4 -31 %                0         0          0
  17

  16                                                                                                                                  T o t a l s a le s                   86         88 -2%                  84        79         88
  15

  14

  13
                                                                                                                                      E B IT
  12                                                                                                                                  Finland                              3.9     3.7         6%          0      0      0
  11
       Jul 10   Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11   Mar 11    Apr 11   May 11   Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11
                                                                                                                                      Esto nia                             4.9     4.7          5%         0      0      0
                                                         OLVI           OMXH (Rebased)
                                                                                                                                      Latvia                               0.8     0.7          1
                                                                                                                                                                                               1%          0      0      0
 Source: Factset

                                                                                                                                      Lithuania                            0.0     0.5        -98%         0      0      0
                                                                                                                                      B elarus                             0.8     2.7        -70%         0      0      0
Analyst(s):                                                                                                                           Eliminatio ns                        0.0      0.1        n.a.        0      0      0
Matias Rautionmaa, Pohjola                                                                                                            T o t a l E B IT                  10 .4    12 .3       - 15 %    12 .0  10 .9  13 .0
                                                                                                                                      T o t a l E B IT                12 .1 % 14 .4 %        0 .0 % 14 .4 % 0 .0 % 0 .0 %
matias.rautionmaa@pohjola.fi
+358 10 252 4408
                                                                                                                                      Financials (net)                     -7.6        0.0 # DIV/0!
                                                                                                                                      P TP                                 2 .9      11.8 - 7 6 %            11.8     10 .5      13 .0
                                                                                                                                      Taxes                                 0.4        0.0 # DIV/0!

                                                                                                                                      EP S                                0 .18     0 .4 8   -63%           0 .4 7    0 .4 0     0 .5 2
                                                                                                                                      Source: Pohjola Bank and Fact set




Page 17 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                                                  European Securities Network
                                                                                                                              Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Roularta
Belgium/Media                                                                                                                                                                  Analyser
Roularta (Buy)

Buy                                                                                                                                    Preview – Reducing TP to EUR 26
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR                                                                                            17.79                      The facts: Roularta is scheduled to report 2Q11 and 1H11 results on Thursday,
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                         August 18 before market opening. The associated analyst meeting is scheduled
Target price: EUR                                                                                           26.00                      the same day at 1.00 pm (CET).
from Target Price: EUR                                                                                      31.00                      At the end of March the company indicated that the positive trend in 1Q11 was a
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                    RLRT.BR/ROU BB                    reason for optimism, though it added that this optimism should be tempered with
                                                                                                                                       caution, given the low short-term visibility. The company referred to stalling
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                             226           advertising campaigns of automotive and technology companies that are impacted
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                  13           by materials and components shortages following the Japan earthquake.
Free float                                                                                                              16%
                                                                                                                                       Our analysis: Ahead of the 2Q11 results we decided to lower our earnings
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                     9,010
                                                                                                                                       forecast to reflect the negative impact the recent economic turmoil will have on
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                       advertising spending. We have respectively cut our FY11/12/13 sales by 1.9%,
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                             29.45
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                              16.50
                                                                                                                                       4.3% & 6.5% and our FY11/12/13 EBITDA forecast by 15.5%, 6.3% & 8.4%.
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                 -27.09%               In general we expect weaker 2Q11 sales vs. 1Q11 driven by tough comps. We
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                 -34.55%               recall that 2Q10 was the first quarter in 7 quarters that reported positive turnover
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                  4.71%               growth, largely driven by a steep surge in TV-advertising spending. In addition we
                                                                                                                                       believe that after a solid 1Q11 for Roularta, 2Q11 has presented itself more
Key financials (EUR)                                                    12/10                 12/11e                 12/12e
                                                                                                                                       challenging with advertiser more in a wait-and-see mode as worries about the
Sales (m)                                                                 712                    735                    758
EBITDA (m)                                                                 77                     72                     87            sovereign debt crisis in the peripheral countries developed itself.
EBITDA margin                                                          10.8%                   9.7%                  11.5%
                                                                                                                                        Key Figures (EUR m)                    2Q10     1H10     FY10                  %
                                                                                                                                                                                                          2Q11e % Change Change 1H11e % Change        FY11e
EBIT (m)                                                                   57                     49                     65
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y            Y-o-Y
EBIT margin                                                             8.0%                   6.7%                   8.5%              Revenue by activity
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                       34                     32                     41               _Printed media                        142.2    278.3    546.4    147.0     0.7%    3.4%    293.0    5.3%       564.0
ROCE                                                                    6.5%                   5.8%                   6.9%                _TV & Radio                            44.9     85.2    171.1     45.9     7.7%    2.3%     88.5    3.9%       175.3
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                       111                     98                     71               _Intersegment eliminations             -0.9     -1.8     -5.9     -1.0   -15.3%   16.1%     -2.2   21.2%        -4.1
Net Debt/Equity                                                           0.3                    0.3                    0.2             Total Turnover                          186.2    361.7    711.6    191.9     2.4%    3.1%    379.3    4.9%       735.1
Debt/EBITDA                                                                1.4                    1.4                    0.8            Cost of Goods Sold                               -80.9   -157.6                              -89.1   10.2%      -172.8
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                              12.7                   16.3                   28.9             Gross Profit                                     280.8    554.0                              290.2    3.3%       562.4
EV/Sales                                                                   0.6                    0.4                    0.4            Gross Profit Margin                             77.6%    77.9%                              76.5%               76.5%
EV/EBITDA                                                                  5.7                    4.5                    3.4            Services and other goods                        -142.6   -280.6                             -149.8    5.1%      -295.7
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                           5.3                    4.3                    3.4            Personnel                                        -96.4   -189.7                              -97.8    1.4%      -187.5
                                                                                                                                        Other operating income & expenses                          -1.6                               -1.5                -3.7
EV/EBIT                                                                    7.7                    6.5                    4.6
                                                                                                                                        REBITDA                                           40.7     82.0                               41.0    0.9%        75.5
P/E (adj.)                                                                 9.7                    7.0                    5.6
                                                                                                                                        REBITDA Margin                                  11.2%    11.5%                              10.8%               10.3%
P/BV                                                                       0.9                    0.6                    0.6
                                                                                                                                        Restructuring costs                               -3.0     -5.0                               -2.0                -4.0
OpFCF yield                                                            10.0%                  20.2%                  28.3%              EBITDA                                            37.7     77.0                               39.0    3.6%        71.5
Dividend yield                                                          2.8%                   4.6%                   6.2%              EBITDA Margin                                   10.4%    10.8%                              10.3%                9.7%
EPS (adj.)                                                               2.66                   2.52                   3.17             REBIT                                             30.2     62.0                               30.0   -0.5%        53.5
BVPS                                                                    27.14                  28.98                  31.37             REBIT Margin                                     8.3%     8.7%                               7.9%                7.3%
DPS                                                                      0.50                   0.81                   1.11             EBIT                                              27.2     57.0                               28.0    3.1%        49.5
                                                                                                                                        EBIT Margin                                      7.5%     8.0%                               7.4%                6.7%
                                                                                                                                          _Printed media                                  10.3     28.0                               15.0   45.4%        25.8
 30 vvdsvdvsdy
                                                                                                                                          EBIT Margin                                    3.7%     5.1%                               5.1%                4.6%
 28
                                                                                                                                          _TV & Radio                                     16.9     29.0                               13.0   -22.9%       23.6
 26                                                                                                                                       EBIT Margin                                   19.8%    17.0%                              14.7%               13.5%
 24                                                                                                                                     Net Finance cost                                  -1.0     -6.1                               -2.0   94.9%        -4.4
 22                                                                                                                                     Income before taxes                               26.2     51.0                               26.0   -0.5%        45.1
 20                                                                                                                                     Income taxes                                     -10.6    -19.0                               -8.9               -15.3
 18                                                                                                                                     Tax rate                                        40.6%    37.3%                              34.0%               34.0%
 16
                                                                                                                                        Share in the profit of the companies              -0.1      0.0                                0.0                 0.0
   Jul 10        Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11   Mar 11   Apr 11    May 11   Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11
                                                                                                                                        Minority interest                                 -0.4     -0.9                                0.0                 0.0
                                        ROULARTA                                    Stoxx Media (Rebased)
                                                                                                                                        Net Result                                        15.1     31.0                               17.2   13.7%        29.8
                                                                                                                                        Net Margin                                       4.2%     4.3%                               4.5%                4.0%
                                                                                                                                        Basic earnings per share                          1.20     2.41                               1.35   12.9%        2.32
Analyst(s):                                                                                                                             Diluted earnings per share                        1.18     2.41                               1.34   13.7%        2.32

Siddy Jobe, Bank Degroof
siddy.jobe@degroof.be                                                                                                                  Conclusion & Action: We are reducing our TP from EUR 31 to EUR 26 to reflect
+32 (0) 2 287 9279                                                                                                                     the downward revision of our earnings forecast, the reduced peer multiples and a
                                                                                                                                       higher risk premium. We are keeping our Buy rating, but we admit we see no clear
                                                                                                                                       short term trigger.




Page 18 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                                        European Securities Network
                                                                                                                               Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Seat PG
Italy/Media                                                                                                                                                               Analyser
Seat PG (Not rated)

Not rated                                                                                                                                  H1 2011 preview: focus on debt restructuring
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR                                                                                                  0.05                     The facts: SEAT will release H1 2011 results on August 29. We expect improving
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                             but still negative sales and EBITDA trend. Focus on restructuring plan. Telegate
                                                                                                                                           published yesterday H1 results slightly below our expectations.
                                                                                                                                           Our analysis: the recent changes in reporting conventions for Yellow Pages
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                               PG.MI/PG IM                between print and on-line makes quarterly estimates a difficult exercise, given the
                                                                                                                                           different timing of revenue recognition and implied impact on EBITDA (as already
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                                88             visible with the positive performance on Q1). In Q2, a similar impact should be
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                 1,928             observed, which is already included in the guidance of a low single-digit decline in
Free float                                                                                                                50%
                                                                                                                                           core revenues. Internet is seen up by 15/20%, vs. +12% in Q1 and in line with full-
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                14,325,134                  year target. SEAT Spa EBITDA Y/Y comparison is on the other hand negatively
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                         1                 affected by the low bad debt provisions recorded in Q2 last year. Telegate
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                               0.15                 reported yesterday H1 revenues and EBITDA slightly below our expectations
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                0.05
                                                                                                                                           at EUR 56m and EUR 7.2m respectively.
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                  -26.19%
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                  -45.07%                  Net debt is seen modestly down in the quarter, taking into account the negative
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                 -67.01%                  impact of net working capital vs. the positive reported impact at the EBITDA level
                                                                                                                                           coming from the above accounting change.
Key financials (EUR)                                                      12/10                12/11e                    12/12e
                                                                                                                                           SEAT H1 2011 preview (EUR m)
Sales (m)                                                                 1,111                 1,054                     1,032
EBITDA (m)                                                                   484                  467                       460                                   Q2 10        Q2 11e         Y/Y   H1 10a     H1 11e      Y/Y
EBITDA margin                                                            43.5%                 44.3%                     44.6%
                                                                                                                                             Total sales           314           280       -10.6%     463        441         -4.8%
EBIT (m)                                                                   (308)                  384                       399
EBIT margin                                                                  nm                36.4%                     38.7%               SEAT spa              253           223        -12%      354        340           -4%
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                          85                   73                        82              TDL                   20.2         21.7         7.2%    32.2       30.5         -5.4%
ROCE                                                                      -6.5%                 8.3%                      8.7%               Telegate              34.0         28.8        -15%     68.4       57.1          -17%
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                       2,730                 2,626                     2,523              Others/adj             6.2          7.0         13%      8.9       13.4           51%
Net Debt/Equity                                                              nm                   nm                        4.7
                                                                                                                                             EBITDA               148.1         115.6      -21.9%    162.4     152.6         -6.0%
Debt/EBITDA                                                                   5.6                  5.6                       5.5
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                                   1.9                  1.9                       2.0             margin               47.2%        41.2%       -6.0pp   35.1%      34.6%        -0.5pp
EV/Sales                                                                      2.6                  2.6                       2.6             SEAT spa             137.2         107.5       -22%     149.9     145.5           -3%
EV/EBITDA                                                                     6.1                  5.9                       5.8             TDL                   3.8           3.8         0.8%     1.9        0.7          -62%
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                              6.1                  5.9                       5.8
                                                                                                                                             Telegate              6.2           4.3        -31%     11.8        7.8          -33%
EV/EBIT                                                                       nm                   7.2                       6.6
P/E (adj.)                                                                    1.9                  1.2                       1.1
                                                                                                                                             Others/adj             0.9          0.0          nm     (1.2)      (1.5)          25%
P/BV                                                                          0.4                  0.2                       0.2             EBITA                133.2         100.7       -24%     129.8     122.8           -5%
OpFCF yield                                                              52.0%                172.2%                    174.2%               Net Debt             2,735         2,728       -0.3%    2,735     2,728         -0.3%
Dividend yield                                                            0.0%                  0.0%                      0.0%
                                                                                                                                           Source: Company data, BANCA AKROS estimates
EPS (adj.)                                                                  0.04                 0.04                      0.04
BVPS                                                                        0.19                 0.21                      0.26            2011 outlook. In Q1, Seat reiterated its expectation of a modest improvement in
DPS                                                                         0.00                 0.00                      0.00            the revenue decline at the Italian division (-8.1% in 2010). To date, SEAT has not
                                                                                                                                           provided an indication on EBITDA; our current estimate is 3% decline Y/Y.
  0.16 sdy
   vvdsvdv
                                                                                                                                           Telegate confirmed yesterday its target of EUR 13/18m FY 2011 EBITDA.
  0.14
                                                                                                                                           Focus on debt restructuring. In early July the lending banks granted a waiver on
  0.12
                                                                                                                                           SEAT covenants to allow a restructuring of its financial position. The granting on a
  0.10
                                                                                                                                           waiver on the covenants on their credit against SEAT (EUR 667m senior bank
  0.08
                                                                                                                                           debt) is a pre-condition to proceed with the planned financial restructuring. The
  0.06


  0.04
                                                                                                                                           most likely outcome is the conversion of the EUR 1.3bn lighthouse bond into new
         Jul 10    Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11    Feb 11   Mar 11    Apr 11   May 11   Jun 11    Jul 11   Aug 11
                                                                                                                                           equity. Assuming total conversion, the resulting company, with EUR 1.4bn debt
                                                        SEAT              Stoxx Media (Rebased)
 Source: Factset
                                                                                                                                           would have a sustainable leverage against the above EUR 0.45bn EBITDA
                                                                                                                                           expected for 2011. The main issues involve obtaining the approval of bondholders
Analyst(s):                                                                                                                                (requiring between 66/75% of votes) and private equity majority shareholder.
Andrea Devita, CFA, Banca Akros                                                                                                            Conclusion & Action: the ultimate value of SEAT equity is totally dependent on
andrea.devita@bancaakros.it                                                                                                                ongoing negotiations between the two categories of stakeholders.
+39 02 4344 4031




Page 19 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                        European Securities Network
                                                                                                                                   Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Technopolis
Finland/Real Estate                                                                                                                                                           Analyser
Technopolis (Buy)

Buy                                                                                                                                      Forecasts rise on the optimistic guidance
from Accumulate
Share price: EUR                                                                                                 3.06                    The facts: Technopolis’ Q2 results matched our forecasts for the part of sales and
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                           EBITDA. The full-year guidance was upgraded and the company estimates that
Target price: EUR                                                                                                4.00                    both of these will grow by 11–13% (prev. 9–11%).
Target Price unchanged                                                                                                                   Our analysis: Like-for-like net rental income rose by 3.5% thanks to the
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                   TPS1V.HE/TPS1V FH                    improvement in the occupancy rate over the benchmark period and index
                                                                                                                                         increases. The economic occupancy rate stood at 93.6% (Q1: 94.5%), depressed
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                              194            by the inclusion of the Pulkovo technology centre in St. Petersburg in the
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                   63            calculation for the first time. The centre’s occupancy rate was 61.7%. Occupancy
Free float                                                                                                              100%
                                                                                                                                         also weakened in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area from 97.1% in Q1 to 96.9%. In
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                    114,075               the other geographical regions the trend was favourable.
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                                         Technopolis estimated, on the basis of signed lease agreements, that the
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                4.42
                                                                                                                                         occupancy rate of Pulkovo would rise by the end of the year to 98.8% and that
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                 2.69
                                                                                                                                         EBITDA would reach positive territory in Russia in H2. The operations of Ülemiste
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                   -12.32%
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                   -20.52%
                                                                                                                                         in Estonia have developed favourably and the company has made an investment
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                  -14.53%
                                                                                                                                         decision for the first growth project in Ülemiste, a 7,200 m² expansion.
                                                                                                                                         Technopolis estimated based on current information that any impacts from the
Key financials (EUR)                                                     12/10                    12/11e               12/12e            dramatically changing mobile industry on it would be relatively small. New
Gross Rental Income (m)                                                     70                        80                   87            business has emerged in the Nokia-driven cities, Oulu and Tampere, and new
EBITDA (m)                                                                  41                        46                   49
                                                                                                                                         corporations have rented altogether around 5,500 m² of space. In total, we
EBITDA margin                                                          50.9%                      50.3%                49.7%
Portfolio Result (m)                                                        3                         19                    8
                                                                                                                                         estimate that Nokia occupies over 33,000 m² of Technopolis’ premises.
Net Financial Result                                                        (9)                      (12)                   (16)         Technopolis wrote up the fair value of properties in Q2 by some EUR 9m. The
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                         23                        23                     24         yield requirement applied in fair value calculation in Q2 was 8.1% (Finland 7.9%).
Funds From Operations                                                        23                        23                     24
                                                                                                                                         The Pulkovo development project’s 10.6% is optimistic, in our view. Technopolis’
EPS (adj.)                                                                 0.38                      0.37                   0.38
DPS                                                                       0.17                  0.17                      0.17           equity ratio in Q2 was 36.3%, close to the company’s 35% target. The biggest
IFRS NAVPS                                                                4.85                  5.29                      5.57           growth investments probably require actions to strengthen the balance sheet.
EPRA NAVPS                                                                5.34                  5.85                      6.16           Technopolis’ NAVPS stood at EUR 4.9 in Q2 – our forecast for 2011 is EUR 5.12.
Premium/(Discount)                                                     (15.9%)               (42.2%)                   (45.1%)
Earnings adj. yield                                                    12.3%                      12.1%                12.3%             Conclusion & Action: We raise forecasts to match the new guidance. The
Dividend yield                                                          5.6%                       5.6%                 5.6%             share’s valuation is low: P/NAV 0.6x, EV/EBITDA 15.7x and dividend yield 5.8%.
EV/EBITDA                                                               17.2                       15.8                 15.8             Though the financial market’s unease caps the upside in the short run, we see
P/E (adj.)                                                              10.8                         8.3                  8.1
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int)                                                4.4                        3.7                  3.1
                                                                                                                                         clear potential in the share when the sentiment improves. We keep our target at
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                      453                        527                  573             EUR 4 and upgrade our recommendation to Buy (from Accumulate).
Net Debt/Total Assets                                                  54.8%                      56.5%                57.2%

                                                                                                                                         Technopolis
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Q2 2 0 11e                             2 0 11e
                                                                                                                                         M€                                     Q2 a Po hj o la      D if f .   C o ns.     Po hjo l a   C o ns.    D if f .
  4.6
   vvdsvdvsdy
                                                                                                                                         Sales                                 2 2 .8    2 2 .8      0%           2 3 .0        8 8 .7    9 0 .8     -2%
  4.4

  4.2

  4.0
                                                                                                                                         EB IT D A                              12 . 1    11. 8      3%            11. 0        4 2 .5    4 4 .2     -4%
  3.8

  3.6                                                                                                                                    M ar g i n                           53 . 1 % 51.8 %                   4 7. 8 %     4 7. 9 %    0 .0 %
  3.4

  3.2

  3.0                                                                                                                                    PT P                                   8 .4       8 .7     -4%             8 .1       2 9 .8      3 4 .1   - 12 %
  2.8
                                                                                                                                         FFO                                    6 .3       6 .1      3%            6 .0        2 0 .6      2 5. 8   -20%
  2.6
        Jul 10   Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11    Feb 11    Mar 11   Apr 11    May 11   Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11


                                                     TECHNOPOLIS                 OMXH (Rebased)
 Source: Factset                                                                                                                         F F O PS                              0 . 10    0 . 10      3%           0 .0 9       0 .3 3     0 .3 6    - 10 %
                                                                                                                                         EPS                                   0 .2 1    0 . 10     10 5%         0 .0 0       0 .4 3     0 .0 0       0%
                                                                                                                                         NAV                                   4 .9 0    4 .6 4      0%           0 .0 0       4 .8 2     4 .9 8     -3%
Analyst(s):
                                                                                                                                         Sour ce: Pohjola Bank and Fact Set
Suvi Kosonen, Pohjola
suvi.kosonen@pohjola.fi
+358 10 252 4359




Page 20 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                                              European Securities Network
                                                                                                                                 Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Telegraaf Media Groep
Netherlands/Media                                                                                                                                                       Analyser
Telegraaf Media Groep (Accumulate)

Accumulate                                                                                                                             Outlook lowered
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR                                                                                            10.20                      The facts: Telegraaf Media Groep (TMG) reported 2Q11 revenues that fell slightly
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                         short of our expectation at underlying results that have been in line with
Target price: EUR                                                                                           17.00                      expectations, resulting in a normalized EBITA margin of 11.0% (SNSe: 10.8%).
Target Price unchanged                                                                                                                 Management lowered FY11 EBITA outlook statement, now expecting a higher
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                 TLGNc.AS/TELEG NA
                                                                                                                                       than expected drop in margins than the previously guided modest margin
                                                                                                                                       reduction. No update about its strategy has been provided. Management states
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                             487           that there will be a strategic update at the beginning of 2012 at the latest. IN the
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                  48           meantime, management will reduce costs where possible.
Free float                                                                                                              30%
                                                                                                                                                                                2Q10a      2Q11a          %       SNSe      cons.
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                   15,431               Total revenues                              150.6   147.0       -2.4%      149.7      148.3
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                       0               normalised EBITA                             17.8    16.2       -9.0%       16.2          16.2
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                            16.20               Normalised EBITA margin (in %)              8.1%    11.0%                 10.8%      10.9%
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                             10.10               Net profit                                   10.6    11.7       10.8%       12.2          n.a.
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                -17.05%                source: company data, SNS Securities
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                -30.17%
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                               -29.45%                Our analysis: a) Sales: Sales were down by 2.4%, below our expectation, on
                                                                                                                                       slightly lower advertising and circulation revenues. The reported decrease does
Key financials (EUR)                                                    12/10                12/11e                  12/12e            not reflect underlying market conditions as Hyves is consolidated in this year’s 2Q
Sales (m)                                                                 593                   603                      615           results. Adjusted for that, we assume revenues would have been down 6.5%
EBITDA (m)                                                                  74                    74                      78
EBITDA margin                                                          12.4%                 12.2%                   12.7%
                                                                                                                                       compared to our estimate of -4.7%, b) EBITA: adjusted EBITA was in line with our
EBIT (m)                                                                    22                    23                      38           expectations, with slightly higher than expected raw material costs being offset by
EBIT margin                                                             3.8%                  3.7%                    6.2%             modestly lower than forecast personnel costs, c) Outlook: We already stated in the
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                        44                    47                      64           preview that there is a risk that the guidance should have been lowered, but did
ROCE                                                                    6.3%                   7.1%                  13.1%
                                                                                                                                       not yet anticipate this statement as 2Q trading conditions have been similar to
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                       (22)                    10                    (12)
Net Debt/Equity                                                           0.0                    0.0                     0.0
                                                                                                                                       1Q11. The lowered outlook statement reflects cautiousness for 2H11, d) Strategy:
Debt/EBITDA                                                               -0.3                   0.1                    -0.2           no update about strategy has been expected as of yet, but the statement that an
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                             184.3                 (81.7)                  (86.8)           update will be provided early 2012 at the latest is disappointing. We anticipated an
EV/Sales                                                                   0.7                   0.4                      0.3          update in 3Q11.
EV/EBITDA                                                                  5.6                   2.9                      2.5
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                           5.6                   2.9                      2.5          Conclusion & Action: Underlying results are in line with our expectations at
EV/EBIT                                                                  18.4                    9.6                     5.1           slightly lower revenues. FY11 outlook change has not yet been expected, pointing
P/E (adj.)                                                               16.1                   10.3                     7.6
P/BV                                                                       1.3                   1.2                      1.2
                                                                                                                                       to weaker 2H. the strategy update at beginning of 2012 at the latest is lower than
OpFCF yield                                                             8.4%                 10.9%                   18.9%             expected. We rate Accumulate on valuation of its stake in PSM, but uncertainty
Dividend yield                                                          4.4%                  4.5%                    5.0%             will linger around the stock in the near-term, leaving investor’s without trigger.
EPS (adj.)                                                               0.93                   0.99                    1.35
BVPS                                                                    11.10                   8.84                    8.75
DPS                                                                      0.45                   0.46                    0.51


  17
   vvdsvdv sdy




  16

  15

  14

  13

  12

  11

  10
       Jul 10    Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11   Mar 11   Apr 11    May 11   Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11


                                             TELEGRAAF MEDIA GROEP               Stoxx Media (Rebased)
 Source: Factset




Analyst(s):
Michel Veul, SNS Securities
michel.veul@snssecurities.nl
+312 0 5508574




Page 21 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                      European Securities Network
                                                                                                                               Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
United Internet
Germany/Telecommunications                                                                                                                                                 Analyser
United Internet (Accumulate)

Accumulate                                                                                                                              2Q11 preview
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR                                                                                             12.29                      The facts: UTDI will report 2Q11 figures on Tuesday, August 16.
closing price as of 11/08/2011
                                                                                                                                        Our analysis: UTDI should report Access sales growth of c. 8% and achieve
Target price: EUR                                                                                            15.00                      revenues of EUR 324.5m in the June quarter. The yoy increase should result
Target Price unchanged                                                                                                                  from UTDI’s new business line, i.e. from smart phone and mobile internet
Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                                      UTDI.DE/UTDI GR                  reselling. As far as subscribers are concerned, UTDI should have lost 30k
                                                                                                                                        DSL accounts, but gained c. 100-110k in smart phones/ mobile internet on a
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                          2,629             sequential basis (Access customer base 3.78m, up 280k yoy and up 70k qoq).
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                214
Free float                                                                                                             48%
                                                                                                                                        The main driver behind the Applications segment remains growth in webhosting
                                                                                                                                        abroad, but also up-selling existing domestic customers and the new easy website
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                  640,684
                                                                                                                                        offer should have played a role. For this segment, we expect a top line of EUR
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                        8
                                                                                                                                        183m (up 10.2% yoy). Hosting abroad should have added >80k subs qoq.
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                             14.69
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                               9.18               UTDI group sales should thus sum up to EUR 507.6m, up 8.5% yoy. The total
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                 -12.25%                customer base should amount to 10.18m (up 210k qoq and 740k yoy).
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                 -10.62%                We forecast UTDI to come up with a reported EBITDA of EUR 103.8m.
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                 31.39%
                                                                                                                                        However, this number should include the EUR 15m one-off associated with
Key financials (EUR)                                                    12/10                 12/11e                  12/12e
                                                                                                                                        the sale of its Versatel (VTW) investment and thus, adj. EBITDA should come
Sales (m)                                                               1,907                  2,071                   2,226            to EUR 88.8m which would be basically at the level of 1Q11 (EUR 90.5m).
EBITDA (m)                                                                358                    358                     409            The respective 2Q11 EBITDA margin should achieve 17.5%. The latter would be
EBITDA margin                                                          18.8%                  17.3%                   18.4%             down 60bp qoq. We forecast a 2Q11 EBT to be released at c. EUR 75.1m and net
EBIT (m)                                                                  271                    271                     319
                                                                                                                                        profit at c. EUR 55.3m (EPS of 25 Cents), both including the aforementioned one-
EBIT margin                                                            14.2%                  13.1%                   14.3%
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                      129                    187                     212            off (tax rate might be low at only 26% in the June period).
ROCE                                                                   25.6%                  30.5%                   35.8%             2Q11 preview
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                       261                    293                     125
Net Debt/Equity                                                           0.7                    0.9                     0.3             EUR m                   2Q11e     2Q10       yoy      1Q11      qoq     1H11e     1H10       yoy
Debt/EBITDA                                                                0.7                    0.8                     0.3
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                              35.4                   28.9                    41.0             DSL net additions       -30,000          0     n.a.   -20,000    50%    -50,000          0    n.a.
EV/Sales                                                                   1.4                    1.3                     1.1            Hosting net additions
EV/EBITDA                                                                  7.7                    7.5                     5.9                                    88,000    60,000       47%    70,000     26%    158,000   140,000     13%
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                           7.7                    7.5                     5.9            outside Germany
EV/EBIT                                                                  10.1                     9.9                     7.6
                                                                                                                                         Total customers [mm]     10.18      9.44        8%      9.97      2%      10.18      9.44      8%
P/E (adj.)                                                               21.1                   14.1                    12.0
P/BV                                                                       7.3                    8.4                     5.3            Sales Access               325      301         8%       321      1%       646       602       7%
OpFCF yield                                                             5.9%                   8.3%                    7.9%
                                                                                                                                         Sales Applications         183      166        10%       177      3%       360       328      10%
Dividend yield                                                          1.6%                   1.6%                    2.4%
EPS (adj.)                                                               0.58                   0.87                    1.03             Group Sales                508      468         8%       499      2%      1,007      931       8%
BVPS                                                                     1.66                   1.46                    2.34
DPS                                                                      0.20                   0.20                    0.30
                                                                                                                                         Adj. EBITDA                 89       92        -3%        90     -2%       179       182      -2%
                                                                                                                                         EBITDA margin            17.5%     19.6%     -210bp    18.1%    -60bp    18.7%     18.7%           -
  15
   vvdsvdv sdy
                                                                                                                                         Rep. EPS [EUR]            0.25      0.17       45%      0.20     26%       0.45      0.34     33%
  14

  13
                                                                                                                                        Source: company data, equinet estimates
  12                                                                                                                                    We expect UTDI to repeat the outlook: UTDI guided for FY11 sales growth of c.
  11
                                                                                                                                        5% for ‘Access’ and for more than 10% for ‘Applications’ which would translate
  10

   9
                                                                                                                                        into a group revenue guidance of at least EUR 2,035m. Besides this, UTDI
   8
                                                                                                                                        expects to generate 700k new subscriber additions. The latter might turn out to be
       Jul 10    Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11   Mar 11    Apr 11    May 11   Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11
                                                                                                                                        a bit conservative. The adj. EBITDA should remain flat yoy at c. EUR 358m
                                            UNITED INTERNET             Stoxx Telecommunications (Rebased)
 Source: Factset
                                                                                                                                        (EBT of EUR 250m should be confirmed as well as EPS of EUR 0.8 since UTDI
                                                                                                                                        will spend the EUR 15m VTW one-off for marketing. EPS depends however on the
Analyst(s):                                                                                                                             expected tax rate and thus, we could imagine UTDI to add an ‘at least’ here).
Adrian Pehl, CFA, Equinet Bank                                                                                                          Conclusion & Action: We confirm both our rating and price target.
adrian.pehl@equinet-ag.de
+49 69 58997 438




Page 22 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                             European Securities Network
                                                                                                                                Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Uponor
Finland/Construction & Materials                                                                                                                                                   Analyser
Uponor (Hold)

Hold                                                                                                                                      Margins under pressure, uncertain demand outlook
from Accumulate
Share price: EUR                                                                                                  7.25                    The facts: Uponor’s sales grew in Q2 by the expected 9%, but operating profit
closing price as of 11/08/2011                                                                                                            (EUR 15.5m) clearly fell short of estimates (Pohjola, cons. EUR 22m) as the tight
Target price: EUR                                                                                               8.00                      market prevented the company from passing increased raw material prices on to
from Target Price: EUR                                                                                          12.50                     sales prices. The company maintained the guidance of organic sales growth
Reuters/Bloomberg
                                                                                                                                          accelerating from the 2010 level and operating profit improving on last year’s
                                                                                                 UNR1V.HE/UNR1V FH
                                                                                                                                          reported figure. The comments on the market were cautious.
Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                                 531          Our analysis: The market was well aware that there would be cost pressures, but
Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                      73          the 3.3pp drop in the gross margin YoY was a big surprise from the company
Free float                                                                                                                  75%
                                                                                                                                          which has had a good track record in pricing. The company sold in Q2 stocks that
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                     136,808               were produced at high cost during Q1 and was not able to raise prices
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                           2              accordingly. Prices have risen during the summer and the stock effect has thus
Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                14.12              levelled off. Profitability was also burdened by large marketing expenditures (EUR
Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                                  7.25              +2.2m YoY in Q2) similar to Q1’s and a EUR 0.9m acquisition cost. We expect the
Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                    -36.35%               gross margin to improve during the rest of the year to 37.5% (Q2: 36.2%), but to
Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                    -45.73%
                                                                                                                                          stay 1.7pp below last year’s (Q3 2010: 39.2%).
Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                   -42.05%
                                                                                                                                          Uponor has not detected any delays in wholesaler purchases, and the financial
Key financials (EUR)                                                   12/10                    12/11e                  12/12e            market’s unease has not spilled over to the company’s business environment. Yet
Sales (m)                                                                749                       817                     860            the company is preparing for a contraction in building and construction
EBITDA (m)                                                                83                        87                     114
                                                                                                                                          investments and is initiating a restructuring programme to this end. Uponor
EBITDA margin                                                         11.1%                      10.6%                  13.3%
EBIT (m)                                                                  52                         59                     84
                                                                                                                                          estimated that the favourable development in the German-speaking Europe would
EBIT margin                                                            7.0%                        7.2%                   9.8%            slow down somewhat as the year draws to its close. In the Nordic countries,
Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                      27                          36                     55           demand for building solutions has decreased since early this year but is estimated
ROCE                                                                  12.1%                       13.1%                  18.3%            to remain stable at least for the next couple of months. The positive signs
Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                       98                         114                    105
                                                                                                                                          observed earlier in Southern and Western Europe have not been sufficiently
Net Debt/Equity                                                           0.4                       0.5                    0.4
Debt/EBITDA                                                               1.2                       1.3                    0.9
                                                                                                                                          strong to stimulate the markets, and increases in demand are not expected in the
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int)                                               7.7                      13.2                   19.0            short run. In Infrastructure Solutions and North America, markets are expected to
EV/Sales                                                                  1.5                       0.8                    0.7            remain close to their current levels.
EV/EBITDA                                                                13.1                       7.2                    5.4
EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                         13.1                       7.2                    5.4
                                                                                                                                          Conclusion & Action: We lower our EPS projections for 2011 and 2012 by 20%
EV/EBIT                                                                  20.8                      10.6                    7.3            and 22%. Our forecasts assume that the moderate growth in demand will
P/E (adj.)                                                               37.5                      14.6                    9.7            continue. We believe the gross margin will revive during the remainder of the year,
P/BV                                                                      4.0                       2.1                    2.0
OpFCF yield                                                             6.6%                     10.4%                  17.5%
                                                                                                                                          which is a condition for the operating profit guidance. The heavy share price drop
Dividend yield                                                          7.6%                      6.9%                   9.7%             has left Uponor’s 2011 EV/EBITDA (7.3) 17% above the peer group’s, but below
EPS (adj.)                                                               0.37                      0.50                   0.75            the median for 2005–2010 (7.6). The dividend yield is good at 6.7%. We
BVPS                                                                     3.44                      3.39                   3.64
                                                                                                                                          downgrade our recommendation because of the uncertain demand outlook to Hold
DPS                                                                      0.55                      0.50                   0.70
                                                                                                                                          (Accumulate). Our new target price is EUR 8 (EUR 12.5).
  15
   vvdsvdvsdy



  14
                                                                                                                                          Uponor
  13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Q 2 2 0 11e
  12

  11
                                                                                                                                          M€                                           Q 2 a Po hj o la   D if f .     C o ns.     Lo w    Hig h
  10                                                                                                                                      S a le s
   9
                                                                                                                                          B uilding So lutio ns - Euro pe               148        149      -1%             0         0      0
   8

   7
                                                                                                                                          B uilding So lutio ns - No rth A meric         30         31     -6%              0         0      0
       Jul 10   Aug 10   Sep 10   Oct 10   Nov 10   Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11    Mar 11     Apr 11     May 11   Jun 11   Jul 11   Aug 11
                                                                                                                                          Infrastructure So lutio ns - No rdic           47         46      3%              0         0      0
                                             UPONOR              Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)
 Source: Factset
                                                                                                                                          Eliminatio ns                                  -2         -2     1 7%             0         0      0
                                                                                                                                          T o t a l s a le s                           223        224      - 1%           224      2 17    227
Analyst(s):
                                                                                                                                          E B IT
Matias Rautionmaa, Pohjola
                                                                                                                                          B uilding So lutio ns - Euro pe              14            19 -27%                0       0      0
matias.rautionmaa@pohjola.fi
                                                                                                                                          B uilding So lutio ns - No rth A meric        3             3   8%                0       0      0
+358 10 252 4408                                                                                                                          Infrastructure So lutio ns - No rdic          2             4 -51 %               0       0      0
                                                                                                                                          Eliminatio ns                                -3            -3 -3,7 %              0       0      0
                                                                                                                                          T o t a l E B IT                            16            22 -30%                22     21     24
                                                                                                                                          T o t a l E B IT                       7 .0 %        10 .0 % 0 .0 %          9 .8 % 0 .0 % 0 .0 %

                                                                                                                                          P TP                                            14        20    - 3 1%            20        18     22
                                                                                                                                          EP S                                         0 .13     0 .2 0   -36%           0 .2 0    0 .16   0 .2 1
                                                                                                                                          Source: Pohjola Bank and Inquiry Financial



Page 23 of 25                                                                                                                                                                                                               European Securities Network
                                                                                                                                  Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
                ESN Recommendation system
                The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the
                basis of a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital
                reimbursement) over a 12 month time horizon.
                The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories:
                Buy, Accumulate (or Add), Hold, Reduce and Sell (in short: B, A, H, R, S).
                Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to
                rate the stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.

                Meaning of each recommendation or rating:


                         •   Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 20% during the next
                             12 months time horizon
                         •   Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 10% to 20%
                             during the next 12 months time horizon
                         •   Hold: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to 10% during the
                             next 12 months time horizon.
                         •   Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to -10% during the
                             next 12 months time horizon
                         •   Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -10% during the next
                             12 months time horizon
                         •   Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a capital operation (take-
                             over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a
                             related party of the issuer is or could be involved or to a change of analyst
                             covering the stock
                         •   Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of
                             the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer

                                                           ESN Ratings Breakdown




                  History of ESN Recommendation System
                  Since 18 October 2004, the Members of ESN are using an Absolute Recommendation
                  System (before was a Relative Rec. System) to rate any single stock under coverage.
                  Since 4 August 2008, the ESN Rec. System has been amended as follow.
                 •    Time horizon changed to 12 months (it was 6 months)
                 •    Recommendations Total Return Range changed as below:


                 TODAY
                      SELL              REDUCE                 HOLD              ACCUMULATE             BUY
                               -10%                    0%                  10%                20%
                 BEFORE
                  SELL              REDUCE                HOLD       ACCUMULATE                     BUY
                      -15%                           0%           5%                 15%




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