IMCC Symposium Proposal, Climate Change and the Oceans since IPCC Fourth Assessment Illuminating climate–ocean Linkages: New science since the last IPCC Symposium Proposal for the International Marine Conservation Congress (IMCC/IMPAC-2) Chad English Director of Science Policy Outreach Communications Partnership for Science and the Sea (COMPASS) cenglish@compassonline.org Abstract
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The Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) outlined the role of the oceans in Earth’s climate system and identified the first signs of climate change impacts on the oceans, with a particular focus on physical changes such as temperature, sea level, and large-scale circulation. Following IPCC procedures, this assessment included primarily science that was peer-reviewed prior to 2006. The next assessment is not expected before 2013. In the meantime, ongoing research is revealing new information about the effects of increased carbon dioxide on the oceans, including changes in ocean circulation, ocean temperature and carbonate chemistry (acidity), and the implications of these environmental shifts on marine ecosystems. Importantly, these new findings are not yet being synthesized in a way that can readily inform policy and practice. Meanwhile, society is beginning to grapple with how to respond to the changes already underway, and those that are predicted to occur in the near future. Thus, new policy development is imminent and would benefit from a synthesis of the state of the science. Drawing on a panel with expertise ranging from physical oceanography to marine food web interactions, this symposium will present a snapshot of the latest scientific developments with respect to climate and oceans. Importantly, the panelists will explore the state of the science as well as its implications for ocean ecosystems, society, management, policy, and future scientific endeavors. Keywords: ocean acidification, climate change, circulation, species’ ranges, food webs, ecosystem-based management The Need for Synthesis of Science Related to Ecological Impacts of Climate Change on Oceans Climate change is already driving important changes in the physics, chemistry and ecology of the oceans. Furthermore, potential future impacts of climate change on ocean ecosystems and coastal communities are likely to be of an unprecedented scope and magnitude, suggesting that successful marine conservation efforts will require a solid understanding of climate change and how it will alter the form and function of ecosystems. While some aspects of climate change effects on oceans are well understood, many are only beginning to be appreciated. Ecosystem impacts of climate change are particularly poorly documented or understood but are likely to have significant societal impacts. For example, the collapse of the northern California salmon fisheries in the U.S. in 2008 is attributed in part to changes in ocean conditions due to climate forcing. However, this collapse was not effectively predicted and the economic cost within the state of California is expected to exceed US$200 million.
IMCC Symposium Proposal, Climate Change and the Oceans since IPCC Fourth Assessment
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Social and policy responses to changes underway – or expected to occur – in the oceans will depend upon understanding what those changes will be and what they will mean for society. Ocean-related policies to address climatic changes are likely to be heavily discussed and implemented at national and international levels in the next few years. The most up-to-date science will be required to effectively evaluate policy options. The IPCC provides comprehensive assessment and synthesis of scientific understanding of climate change and explores its impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. But as Richardson and Poloczanska (2008) note, of the more than 28,000 “significant biological changes” noted in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report only 85 are were from freshwater or marine aquatic ecosystems. Despite this lack of synthesized science for the marine realm, policy makers at federal, state and local levels are moving to address climate impacts on socially important marine ecosystems (see, for example, West Coast Governors’ Agreement on Ocean Health). This symposium will bring together a diverse group of scientists studying the many connections between climate change and the oceans to begin to synthesize the state of knowledge that has developed since the last IPCC report with a particular focus on illuminating changes in marine ecosystems. The symposium will provide an opportunity to catalyze conversations among scientists, practitioners, and decision makers to inform critical research priorities and to explore and highlight the implications of that science for management and policy. This symposium will focus explicitly on the meeting’s major theme of Global Climate Change, specifically elucidating and consolidating new findings since the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. In addition, speakers and discussants will bring a broad, ecosystem-based perspective to their presentations and the discussion, so that the major meeting theme of Ecosystem-Based Management will be a unifying thread throughout the symposium. Consistent with the overarching goal of the meeting, putting conservation science into practice, this symposium aims to accelerate the transition of new and emerging science into policy- and management-useable knowledge and subsequently into conservation practice. Expected outcomes: • Bringing together the experts proposed for this symposium will lead to an increased understanding of the role of oceans in driving climate, and the role of climate change in driving ocean changes, including sea level rise, ocean acidification, changing ocean temperatures and physics, and effects on ocean ecosystems. • This symposium presents an ideal opportunity to bring together a diverse group of scientists, from a broad range of disciplines and institutions, to share a more synthetic story about the state of our understanding of climate change effects on the ocean and its ecosystems. This will provide the foundation for a scientific review paper, to be submitted to a peer reviewed journal. COMPASS will also work to re-package the contents of this paper for non-scientific audiences. • By providing a synthesis of current scientific understanding, this symposium will present opportunities to engage a policy making audience. COMPASS will work with the participants to prepare venues and products to connect the perspectives and concepts that come out of this symposium to federal and state policy makers. This may include
IMCC Symposium Proposal, Climate Change and the Oceans since IPCC Fourth Assessment summary documents, direct meetings or briefings for state officials and legislators, Congressional staff, Members of Congress and Administration scientists and officials. Special instructional or audio-visual equipment: Computer and projector with PowerPoint capability. Participants:
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Jack Barth, Oregon State University. Dr. Barth will review some of the oceanographic changes related to climate change that are being observed in the world oceans, and note some of the most recent developments in our understanding of how coastal systems are responding to climateinduced changes in forcing. He will discuss the implications of these changes for coastal ecosystems, including phenology. Francisco Chavez, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute. Dr. Chavez will discuss changes in the timing and intensity of wind-driven upwelling and the implications of these changes for upwelling ecosystems around the globe. Gretchen Hofmann, UC Santa Barbara. Dr. Hofmann will review predicted changes in ocean acidity and temperature and will discuss emerging research about how these changes are likely to impact species’ physiology. She will discuss how these impacts might lead to cascading effects on populations and ecosystems around the globe. Jeff Polovina, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, NOAA. Dr. Polovina will present recent research on the expansion of oligotrophic regions in the world’s oceans, including implications of primary productivity changes for pelagic and coastal marine food webs. Mike Fogarty, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. Dr. Fogarty will present our latest understanding of the implications of climate change for fisheries. He will discuss the challenges of teasing apart climate and fishing pressures, and identifying science and information needs for fisheries management in a changing world. Heather Leslie, Brown University. Through the lens of the emerging science of resilience, Dr. Leslie will describe how coastal ecosystems and their associated human communities are responding to a changing climate. She will discuss the implications of resilience for management and illustrate how to design ecosystem-based approaches to address climate change impacts to marine systems. Discussants: Andrew Rosenberg, University of New Hampshire Jane Lubchenco, Oregon State University Drs. Rosenberg and Lubchenco will lead a lively conversation between audience members and the panel of speakers, providing brief comments as fodder for discussion. The discussion period
IMCC Symposium Proposal, Climate Change and the Oceans since IPCC Fourth Assessment
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will provide a venue for synthesis and assessment of the state of the science related to oceans and climate change, and an opportunity to suggest critical avenues for further scientific development between now and the next IPCC report.
References: Richardson and Poloczanska, 2008, Science 320:1294 West Coast Governors’ Agreement on Ocean Health, http://westcoastoceans.gov/