Technology Foresight

							TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN
PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES

              Djuro KUTLAČA, PhD
     Science and Technology Policy Research Centre of the
                  “Mihajlo Pupin” Institute
        11000 Belgrade, Volgina 15, Serbia and Montenegro;
                  Tel/Fax:+381(0)11 2774-452;
              E-mail: dkutlaca@labtel.imp.bg.ac.yu ,
                               and
                FaM – Faculty of Management
       21000 Novi Sad, Vase Stajića 6, Serbia and Montenegro;
Tel: +381(0)21 451863; +381(0)21 451671/104 Fax: +381(0)21 526254
                   e-mail: kutlaca@famns.edu.yu
     TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN
     PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES
NEED & RELEVANCE:
1.   Technology foresight (TF) is methodology used for identification of
     future needs in economy and society in order to make right, as much as
     possible, allocation of available R&D resources in country.
2.   TF is widely used, in developed countries, but in majority of developing
     and undeveloped countries it remain mystery although these countries
     desperately needs selective approach and wise suggestions what and how
     to do research and technology development (RTD) which will integrate
     limited national resources.
3.   Without TF and usually with trial and error planning approach,
     catching-up process last longer, wastes money and human efforts.
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     TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN
     PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES

SCALE OF AMBITION & CRITICAL MASS:
1. Best practice approach - introducing TF methodology in Balkan
   countries, as a tool for development of NIS and as a process, which will
    help integration of Balkan countries into ERA (European Research Area ).
    This comprises analysis of different TF approaches, used by OECD/EU
    member countries.
    One of the main outcomes of this analysis should be proposal of TF
    methodology, modified and adapted to contributing countries.
    Full cooperation with authorities, researchers and TF experts from relevant
    EU member countries is precondition for successful realization of this phase

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       TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN
       PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES
SCALE OF AMBITION & CRITICAL MASS:
2. Identification of the fields of particular interest for future
   development of the Balkan economies and societies - where RTD
   activities could make substantial contribution, based on domestic resources and
   desirable cooperation with partners within EU.
   Main condition for realization of this phase is adoption of TF methodology by
   responsible country's authorities, therefore, as high level policy issue.
   EU should be involved in negotiation and preparation phase. Results of this
   phase must be:
   •   thorough analysis of country's human and other resources,
   •   highly reduced set of national developmental priorities, probability of their
       realization is most reliable,
   •   foreseen of future national development path, which is based on the presumption of
       sooner, as much as possible, integration into EU and permanent cooperation with
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       countries in region and other EU member countries;
        TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN
        PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES
SCALE OF AMBITION & CRITICAL MASS:
3. Diffusion of TF processes into society as precondition for
   democratization of decision-making process in country's NIS.
   Parallel with previous phase, intensive promotion of TF principles, philosophy
    and way of thinking and perception of future development should take place in
    RTD community, but also in other relevant socio-economic segments in
    contributing countries.
    This phase should be treated as an important part of democratization
    processes in those countries, in which decision-making process in RTD sector
    must involve not only largest part of RTD community as possible, but also other
    segments of society, which could be affected by RTD activities. Awareness of
    the size and strength of the existing resources and information of RTD activities
    effects and achievements must become available to all people, without
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    restrictions and mystifications.
      TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN
      PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES
INTEGRATION:
1. Regional approach:
  (a) implementation of particular methodological instruments, better suited for
      some regions,
  (b) involvement of regional RTD institutions and individuals and public
      authorities,
  (c) Formation of national TF findings as a compromised summation of regional
      priorities rather than centralized approach which is usually without bases in
      real life circumstances.

2. Educational approach
  Because of absence of TF activities in contributing countries, project team
  should be instructed and supported by TF experts from relevant EU member
  countries, as well as education of RTD community will take place during the
  project realization.                                                           6
    TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN
    PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES
INTEGRATION:
3. Sectoral and/or panel approach is the way
  how particular TF activities should be organized for
  analysis of country's potential and future needs, as well
  as the way for involvement of key participants in TF
  exercises.
4. International dimension either as joint project
  for contributing countries, but also as project were
  experts and institutions from EU member countries
  and Commissions authorities must take serious part.     7
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN
PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES




     Why?

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Total Patent Applications




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Resident Patent Applications




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Non-Resident Patent Applications




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                                        Absorptive Capacities




Source: Dj.Kutlaca, after S.Radosevic
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                                        R&D Capacities




Source: Dj.Kutlaca, after S.Radosevic
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Case – “Mihajlo Pupin” Institute




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Case – “Mihajlo Pupin” Institute




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R&D systems:




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[Meske, 1998]   35
   NIS
  Concept of
 Technopolis
2000 modified
and extended
     by
 S.Kuhlmann
 [EC, 2003a]




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