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Techno Economic Feasibility Study

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					 INTERIM
CG MEETING
 Copenhagen
 April 29, 2002




            UNECE                                       UN ESCATO

                       2008 SPECA Economic Forum
                        Moscow, 20 October 2008


Water Energy Nexus in Central Asia


                                      by
                  Central Asia Sustainable Development Team
                                  World Bank
 INTERIM            Central Asian Republics have significant energy
                      resources but their distribution is skewed
CG MEETING
 Copenhagen
 April 29, 2002


                        Legend
                  Total Fossil Fuel MTOE                                                              26,900
                  Coal MTOE                                                                        24,300
                                                                     1,100
                  Crude Oil MTOE
                                                                     1,500
                  Gas MTOE                                            27
                  Hydro Potential TWh/year                                     Kazakhstan




                                                             4,409                                  591
                                                           2,851                                    580
                                                     82                               The Kyrgyz    6
                                                                                                    5
                                                      1,476                             Republic
                             2,327                                                                             163
                           0                          15
                           75                               Uzbekistan
                              2,252
                           2                                                               507
                                      Turkmenistan                           Tajikistan   500
                                                                                          2
                                                                                          5
                                                                                                               317
 INTERIM          Based on these resources, integrated water,
                     power and gas systems were developed
CG MEETING
 Copenhagen
 April 29, 2002
 INTERIM
                        Regional Inter-Dependence Has Continued
CG MEETING
 Copenhagen
                                   after Independence
                                              Consumer
 April 29, 2002




                            Kazakhstan    Kyrgyz        Tajikistan    Turkmen Uzbekistan
                                          Republic
             Kazakhstan                      Coal,
                                 --         Mineral
                                             Fuels
 Supplier




             Kyrgyz           Water            --       Electricity               Water
             Republic       Electricity
             Tajikistan                   Electricity       --         Water   Water, Gas
                                                                               Rail Transit


             Turkmen                                    Electricity     --
             Uzbekistan         Gas,          Gas       Electricity                 --
                               Water                       Gas

            However, Terms of exchange changed drastically from Soviet times
                  e.g., Kyrgyz and Tajik have to pay for fossil fuels in hard currency
 INTERIM
CG MEETING
                   Basin wise view of Central Asia
 Copenhagen
 April 29, 2002




                                                    Syr Darya Riparians
                                         •Kyrgyz – upstream – Power need
                                         •Tajik- Midstream – power/irrigation
                                         •Uzbekistan- Downstream- Irrigation
                                         •Kazakhstan – Downstream - Irrigation




            Amu Darya Riparians
 •Tajikistan– upstream – Power need
 •Turkmenistan- Downstream- Irrigation
 •Uzbekistan – Downstream - Irrigation
 INTERIM              Developments Since 2004/05 In Syr Darya
                                       Basin
CG MEETING
 Copenhagen
 April 29, 2002




        • Uzbekistan                             • Kyrgyz Republic
                  – Built reservoirs (2.5 BCM)
                    to store winter releases       – Overdependence on hydro
                  – Cash payment (no barter)       – Delayed reforms
                    for gas
                  – Increased gas prices to            • Especially pricing
                    European level                 – Financially weak


      • Kazakhstan                               • Other Developments
                                                    – Kyrgyz Rep participates
                  – Vulnerable with new               in CASAREM preparations
                    reservoirs, esp. Arnasai
                                                       • Aim: send summer
                  – Which can hold all the               electricity to South Asia
                    water that KZ needs             – Kazakhstan and Russia
                                                      financie Feasibility Study
                                                      for Kambarata
 INTERIM                  Solutions to Water Energy Nexus
                                     in Syr Darya
CG MEETING
 Copenhagen
 April 29, 2002




                  • Difficult as it may sound (to Kyrgyz) the solution
                    lies in Kyrgyz hands

                  • Kyrgyz’s winter energy needs have to be met
                     – Dependence on Hydro is not an option

                  • Some 400 MW of thermal would ‘break the nexus’

                  • Some ideas for IBRD enclave operation being
                    conisdered

                  • Kyrgyz hydro could then be focused on exports
                     – Including Kambarata
 INTERIM                             Amu Darya –
                             confluence of Vaksh and Pyanj
CG MEETING
 Copenhagen
 April 29, 2002




                                                    Vaksh River
                                     •Major tributary of Amu Darya
                                     •20 BCM/year flow; 26% of Amu Darya
                                     •Well developed for
                                     •Kazakhstan – Downstream - Irrigation




                                  Pyanj River
                  •Waters from Afghanistan/Tajikistan
                  •Major water body- undeveloped
                  •Plans exist however for development
 INTERIM
                                                      World Bank helps conduct a feasibility
CG MEETING
    Copenhagen
                                                             Study for Rogun HEP
    April 29, 2002

                                     Cross-Border                       Independent Panels of Experts
                                      Impacts of
                                      Vaksh River              Technical/Dam                       Environment/
World Bank Independent Assessment




                                      Development               Safety Panel                       Social Panel

                                    •Irrigation

                                    •Agriculture

                                    •Hydropower                Techno-Economic                 Environmental & Social
                                                            Feasibility Study (TEFS)             Assessment (ESA)
                                    •Environment

                                    •Aral Sea
                                                                           Financial and Legal Advisors
                                    •Water Supply                       Professional/consulting Firms
                                    •Climate Change

                                    •Regional
                                     Cooperation
                                                                  Country                              Public
                                                                Consultations                       Consultations
 INTERIM            Downstream countries are worried a water
                   energy nexus would be created in Amu Darya
CG MEETING
 Copenhagen
 April 29, 2002




           • Therefore Key focus of Rogun HEP Feasibility Study:
                  – Technical, economic and environmental assessments
                  – PLUS
                  – The impact on downstream countries’ irrigation
                  – The Framework is the 1992 Agreement
                  – In other words, can Rogun be built and operated to:
                     • Ensure compliance with annual and Seasonal water releases?

           • It is possible:
                  – Rogun was designed to operate in an irrigation mode
                     • Guarantee mechanisms need to be put in place
                  – Electricity produced would be exported to South Asia
                     • Who need power in the summer and are willing to pay lucrative prices
 INTERIM                              Rogun will be part of CASAREM - a set of
                                      projects and institutional/legal framework
CG MEETING
 Copenhagen
 April 29, 2002

                                       Kazakhstan
                                                                                  Kyrgyzstan
            Existing Facilities
                  Toktogul HPP
                  Existing Surplus
                                                                                Perspective Facilities
                    Nurek HPP
                  Existing Surplus
                                        Uzbekistan                          220/500 kV Uzbek by pass
                                                                             SS Datka (Kyrgyz) – SS
                                                                                 Hojent (Tajik)
                                                                            Cascade of Zarafshan HPPs
                                                                            (Yavan and Oburdon HPP)
                                                                            Annual generation 1680 GWh

                                                                           Rogun HPP                 Annual
                                                              Tajikistan          generation 13000 GWh        China
                                                                           Coal TPP                  Annual
             Facilities Under                                                   generation 3900-6400 GWh
              Construction
                                                                            500 kV OHL “CASA 1000”
         500 kV OHL South-North                                               Nurek HPP – Kabul -
         Financing: China Exim bank                                                Peshawar
              Sangtuda 1 HPP
                  Financing: Russia

                  Sangtuda 2 HPP
                   Financing: Iran

         220 kV OHL SS Sarban –
           Tajik/Afghan border
                                                                     Pakistan
             Financing: ADB/IsDB



                                              Kabul
                                                         Peshawar
                                           Afghanistan

                                                                                                     India
 INTERIM                        Economic basis for CASAREM
                             Regional Market: COST-PRICE GAPS
CG MEETING
 Copenhagen
 April 29, 2002




                   $15 to $45 per
                       MWh




             $8 to $30 per                                                            $30 to $75 per
                 MWh                                                                      MWh

                                                            $15 to $40 per
                                                                MWh


                                           $10 to $40 per
                                               MWh
                                                                             $65 to $150 per
                         $25 MWh to $350                                          MWh
                              MWh
 INTERIM
CG MEETING
 Copenhagen
                                       Conclusions
 April 29, 2002




      • For Syr Darya , efforts are to break the nexus
                  – Some additional water releases possible in winter
                     • Downstream countries taking measures to store this water
                  – Add thermal capacity to meet Kyrgyz winter demand
                  – Export summer surpluses to markets needing them
                  – Domestic electricity market reforms
      • For Amu Darya, efforts are to avoid the nexus
                  – Ensure Rogun is built and operated in irrigation mode
                     • Will unlock the World Bank financing
                     • Plus put in measures to ensure and guarantee

				
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