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					                                    Provincial Employment Monitor                                                              TD Economics
                                                                                                                                 www.td.com/economics

                                                     August 5, 2011


                                                          HIGHLIGHTS

                                                         	
•	 Seven	 provinces	 saw	 M/M	 net	 job	 gains	 in	 July.	
                                                                                       YTD JOBLESS RATE DETERIORATIONS*
   Winners	included	Newfoundland	and	Labrador	(+3.8K,	                               CONCENTRATED TO JUST A FEW PROVINCES
   +1.7%),	 Saskatchewan	 (+1.6K,	 +0.3%)	 and	Alberta	                         %
                                                                          1.5
   (+12.4K,	 +0.6%).	 	 The	 remaining	 provinces	 posted	
   job	losses:	Ontario	(-22.4K,	-0.3%),	New	Brunswick	                                                                                      1.00
                                                                          1.0
   (-0.5K,	-0.4%)	and	Nova	Scotia	(-1.4K,	-0.3%).                                                                  0.70

•	 Five	 provinces	 saw	 their	 jobless	 rates	 decrease	 in	             0.5                                                                             0.30
   July.		Québec	saw	the	biggest	drop	(-0.7	ppts	to	7.2%);	
                                                                                                                                                   0.00
   Prince	Edward	Island	and	Newfoundland	and	Labrador	                    0.0
   were	not	too	far	behind	with	0.4	ppts	declines.		With	job	
   cuts	recorded	in	July,	Nova	Scotia	and	New	Brunswick	                 -0.5                    -0.40
   saw	their	unemployment	rates	inch	up.		Both	provincial	                       -0.60
                                                                                                          -0.50
                                                                                                                            -0.60
                                                                                                                                                                 -0.50
                                                                                                                                    -0.70
   measures	now	rest	at	6-8	month	highs.                                 -1.0         -0.90
                                                                                Canada BC          AB      SK          MB   ON      QC      NB     NS     PEI     NL
•	 Alberta’s	12.2K	job	gain	in	July	was	its	third	consecutive	           *Percentage	point	change	in	unemployment	rate	from	January	to	July	2011
   one.		It	has	averaged	14K	net	new	jobs	per	month	from	                Source:	Statistics	Canada,	Haver	Analytics.

   May-July,	a	far	cry	from	the	slow	start	witnessed	at	the	
   onset	of	the	recovery.		Both	Calgary	and	Edmonton	                 •	 Ontario	gave	up	22.4K	positions	in	July,	the	largest	M/M	
   metro	 areas	 are	 seeing	 this	 positive	 momentum	 of	              decrease	 recorded	 since	 December	 2009;	 services	
   late.		Non-residential	construction	and	general	services	             were	the	culprit	with	54.7K	job	cuts.		However,	most	
   including	transportation	have	been	the	sectors	with	the	              of	these	losses	stemmed	from	the	educational	sector,	
   best	showings	over	the	three-month	period.                            with	 schools	 closing	 for	 summer	 break	 in	 June.	 	 By	
•	 Newfoundland	and	Labrador	recorded	3.8K	net	new	                      contrast,	goods	producing	and	manufacturing	sectors	
   jobs	in	July,	ending	the	province’s	two-month	string	of	                                                                           	
                                                                         held	 up	 quite	 well	 with	 32.3K	 new	 positions	 in	 July.	
   declines.		New	positions	were	concentrated	primarily	                 These	latter	segments	of	the	provincial	economy	will	
   to	 the	 services	 sector,	 particularly	 professional	 and	          be	the	ones	to	watch	over	the	near-term	given	the	high	
   technical	services.		The	jobless	rate	measure	came	                   Canadian	dollar	and	lingering	economic	uncertainties	
   in	at	11.9%	in	July,	certainly	much	lower	than	recent	                south	of	the	border.
   annual	averages.		Still,	the	rate	is	above	the	11.1%	
                                                                                                 Sonya Gulati, Economist, 416-982-8063
   35-year	low	recorded	in	April	2011.

                                    TD ECONOMICS - NATIONAL & PROVINCIAL LABOUR MARKET TRACKER
                                                   EMPLOYMENT                     UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
                                                                                                            AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
                                          Thousands               Change	(%)                 %
                                                                   Jul-2011                                          Jul-2011
                                    Jun-2011      Jul-2011                        Jun-2011     Jul-2011
                                                                  M/M	        Y/Y                                C$         M/M	%	Chg.
CANADA                                17,337.1     17,344.2         0.0       1.5        7.4            7.2     22.5           -1.0
British Columbia                       2,268.7      2,274.1         0.2       0.3        7.3            7.3     22.9           -1.0
Alberta                                2,090.6      2,103.0         0.6       3.8        5.6            5.5     24.9           -1.4
Saskatchewan                             525.2        526.8         0.3       0.4        4.9            4.9     22.7           -1.0
Manitoba                                 621.8        621.9         0.0       0.2        5.5            5.7     20.6           -1.6
Ontario                                6,769.8      6,747.4        -0.3       1.6        7.7            7.5     23.3           -0.7
Québec                                 3,965.3      3,974.5         0.2       1.5        7.9            7.2     20.9           -1.2
New Brunswick                            349.5        348.0        -0.4      -2.0        9.6           10.1     19.1            0.3
Nova Scotia                              452.8        451.4        -0.3      -0.9        8.7            9.5     19.6           -1.2
Prince Edward Island                      71.8         71.8         0.0       1.0       12.0           11.6     18.7            1.2
Newfoundland & Labrador                  221.6        225.4         1.7       3.5       12.3           11.9     20.6           -0.6
	Source:	Statistics	Canada,	Labour	Force	Survey,	Haver	Analytics.
                                                        Provincial Employment Monitor                      TD	Economics
                                                                   August 5, 2011                                                          2
                                                                                                           www.td.com/economics




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