NOAA by liuhongmei

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									    SOUTHEAST NATURAL
RESOURCE LEADERSHIP GROUP
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
    IN THE SOUTHEAST
          Agency Presentation

 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
           Administration
            Dr. Jeffrey Payne
      NOAA Coastal Services Center

           May 27 – 29, 2008
       Charleston, South Carolina
                                NOAA’s Climate Goal
               Understand climate variability and change
               to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond

            Program                       Performance Objective              Outcomes

                                      Describe and understand the state   A predictive
                                      of the climate system through       understanding of the
                                      integrated observations,            global climate system
                                      monitoring, and data management     on time scales of
Climate Observations and Monitoring                                       weeks to decades to
                                                                          a century with
                                                                          quantified
                                                                          uncertainties
                                      Understand and predict climate
                                                                          sufficient for making
                                      variability and change from
                                                                          informed and
                                      weeks to decades to a century
Climate Research and Modeling
                                                                          reasoned decisions.
                                                                          Climate-sensitive
                                                                          sectors and the
                                      Improve the ability of society to   climate-literate
                                      plan for and respond to climate     public effectively
                                      variability and change              incorporating
Climate Service Development                                               NOAA’s climate
                                                                          products into their
                                                                          plans and decisions.
      Describe the State of the Climate System


• Climate System Observations
   • Ocean
   • Atmosphere
   • Arctic
   • Carbon

• Data Management
   • NOAA’s Comprehensive Large
        Array-data Stewardship System
   • State of the Climate Report
   • Climatological statistics and
        summaries
   • National Climatic Data Center
       Understand and Predict Climate Variability
       and Change From Weeks to a Century
• Understanding Climate Processes
   • NOAA research labs, centers,
       and cooperative institutes
   • Competitive grants
• Earth System Modeling,
  Predictions, and Projections
   • National Centers for
        Environmental Prediction and
        Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
        Lab coupled climate models
• Analysis and Attribution
   • Reanalysis                           GFDL MODEL
   • Emerging focus on integrated        Capturing the global
       earth system analysis and           distribution of the
                                         short-lived Aerosols
       attribution                        spreading out from
                                          the source regions
          Develop and Deliver Climate
          Information Services
• Assessing Climate, Impacts, and
   Adaptation
   • Global, national, regional,
       and sectoral assessments of
       vulnerability, impacts, and
       adaptation
• Climate Services Development
   and Delivery
    • International Research Institute
          (IRI) for Climate and Society
    • National Integrated Drought
       Information System (NIDIS)
    • National Weather Service
    • Regional Climate Centers
    • Regional Integrated Sciences
          and Assessments
         There is a collective picture of a warming world
         and human activities have contributed . . .

 Global temperatures: Up 0.7 – 1.4o over past 100 years
 Consistent with the warming:
    Glacial retreat in Arctic
    10-15% reduction Arctic sea ice extent (1970s)
    Snow-cover decrease (10% since 1970s)
    Freeze-free periods lengthened (20th century)
    Sea-level increased 4-8 inches (since 19th cen)
    Lake and river ice shortened season
     (~ 2 weeks, 19th to 20th century)

 CO2 abundance likely double by 2100
 Predicted climate responses:
    Global temperature rise 2-6oF by 2100
    Corresponding sea level rise of 4-35” by 2100
         Socioeconomic Pressures: A Call for
         Climate Services
Increased Vulnerability
• 9 billion people by 2050 (50% increase)

• Increasing urbanization into mega-cities
  – 4 billion new city dwellers, aging
  populations, overdevelopment in coastal
  regions, and regions with limited water
  supply

• “Climate change threatens the basic
  elements of life for people around the
  world - access to water, food production,
  health, and use of land and the
  environment.” (Stern Review, 2006)
                    Climate Services Partnerships


                                                                                                                      International
     RISA – Pacific Northwest                                                                                         Research Institute

     RISA – Western Water




                                                                                                                 Cornell University
                                Desert Research Institute      University of
                                                                                    Illinois State
                                                                Nebraska
                                                                                     Water Survey
                                                                                                                          NOAA Climate
                                                                                                                          Prediction
                                                                                                                          Center*
NOAA
Climate Diagnostic Center                                                                                                NOAA National
RISA – California
                                                                                                                         Climatic
RISA – Arizona                                                                                           UNC-Chapel Hill Data Center

                                                                                                              RISA – Carolina
                                                                       Louisiana State
                                                                         University


                                        RISA’s                                                       RISA – Florida

                                        Pacific RISA

       NWS Regional HQ                        *Climate Services Division, Climate
                                              Program Office, NOAA HQ
                    National Climate Service
Congressional View: S2307 -- Specific Services
The Service, at a minimum, shall –
    -   provide comprehensive and authoritative information about the state of the climate and its
        effects, through observations, monitoring…
    -   provide predictions and projections on the future state of the climate…
    -   assess and strengthen delivery mechanisms for providing climate information to end users…
    -   communicate…on an ongoing basis to decision- and policy-makers, the private sector, and to
        the public

Development of Vision for a National Climate Service
Proposed two-pronged approach:
1. Establishment of a national climate services partnership across federal
   agencies
    -   Mechanism through which Nation’s goals with regard to managing climate risks
        are identified, and investments and activities for production and application of
        climate information are coordinated
    -   Focus on ensuring highly usable, actionable, issue-focused information is
        produced and evaluated
2. Establishment of a National Climate Service
    -   Nation’s identified, accessible, authoritative, and centralized point of entry for
        regular and timely climate information (National Climate Program Act of 1978 and
        emerging legislation)
    Examples of NOAA Climate Program
    activities focused on impacts and adaptation

 Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP) -- Catalyze and
  support applied, interdisciplinary research, outreach, and education
  activities to enhance capacity of key socio-economic sectors to respond to
  and plan for climate variability and change through the use of climate
  information and related decision support resources

 Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) -- NOAA
  supports university-based teams across U.S. to analyze how climate
  impacts key sectors within a region and how climate information could
  help with resource management and planning within that region

 Transition of Research Applications to Climate Services
  (TRACS) -- Transition experimentally mature climate tools, methods, and
  processes from research mode into settings where they may be applied in
  an operational and sustained manner
   Increasing Community Resilience to Future Hurricane Storm
    Surge: Collaborative Decision Support in Sarasota, Florida
  Goals
                                                                                        Sarasota
  •        Develop methodology to increase
           resilience to storm surge & SLR
           for coastal communities
  •        Help Sarasota incorporate
                                                                             Storm
           scenarios of SLR & development
                                                                             Surge
           into long-range planning
                                                                             Zones

                            Environmental Groups

Local Elected Officials                             Public Works Officials

                                                                                           Legend
 Developers             Focus Groups / Interviews                Planners             Cat 5 Surge Zone - Sarasota
                                                                                      cat530_trim
                                                                                      cat560_trim
       State Agencies                               Emergency Managers                cat590_trim
                                                                                Enf5mclp
                            Local Business Owners                               Value
                                                                                      High : 3096
                                                                                                                                           Meters
                                                                                      Low : -184
                                                                                                                    0   5,000 10,000   20,000


                                                                                     Brent Yarnal Project PI
                          Nathan Wood USGS Co PI
                                                                                     Tim Frazier Graduate Researcher
                Regional Integrated Sciences and
                      Assessments (RISA)
                                            RISAs create
                                           strong university
                                           partnerships with
                                           federal, state, and
                                           local
                                           stakeholders
                                           within a region
                                            Example topics
                                           covered include:
                                           agriculture,
                                           wildland fire,
                                           water resources,
                                           drought planning,
                                           fisheries, public
                                           health, coastal
                                           processes


www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/
    Systems and activities of socioeconomic
    value affected by climate in coastal areas


• Shorelines and             • Community growth
  developed areas              and development
• Wetlands                   • Natural hazard
                               preparedness
• Estuaries
                             • Conservation
• Coral reefs                • Ecosystem health
• Ocean margins                and restoration
  and fishery                • Energy
  resources                  • Tourism
                             • Public health
      Illustrative climate change issues
      involving ecological resources
• Attribution of climate signals impacting ecosystems: long
  term change and natural variability
• Ocean warming and circulation patterns: impacts on
  distribution and productivity (phenology, production,
  invasives)
• Ocean acidification impacts on marine biota
• Precipitation patterns, freshwater supply and nutrients, and
  effects on resource management
• Sea level rise (natural resource implications)
• Frequency, track, and intensity of coastal storms and
  impacts on ecosystems

								
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