HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20009 (202) 234-5570
Study #6054--page 1 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey Interviews: 1,005 adults Dates: May 12-16, 2005
FINAL Study #6054 NBC News/Wall Street Journal May 2005 Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated.
48 Male 52 Female [109]
The margin of error for 1,005 interviews is ±3.1%
1. All in all, do you think that things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? High 9/01 72 11 11 6 3/04 41 49 5 5 5/03+ 49 38 8 5 6/02 52 31 14 3 5/96+ 28 52 15 8 Low 7/92+ 14 71 9 6 1/04 47 43 6 4 4/03 62 22 13 3 4/02 53 28 15 4
Headed in the right direction . Off on the wrong track............. Mixed (VOL)............................. Not sure...................................
5/05 35 52 10 3
4/05 34 51 12 3 9/04+ 39 49 10 2 12/14/03 56 30 9 5 1/03 36 47 14 3 1/02 62 20 14 4
2/05 42 48 8 2 8/04+ 36 50 12 2 12/13/03 41 48 8 3 12/02 43 42 13 2 12/01 70 15 12 3
1/05 40 47 10 3 7/04+ 36 48 14 2 11/03 43 47 6 3 10/02+ 44 42 14 9/01 72 11 11 6
12/04 41 46 11 2 6/04+ 36 48 14 2 9/03 38 50 8 4 9/02 42 43 12 3 6/01 43 39 14 4
10/04+ 39 48 10 3 5/04+ 33 50 14 3 7/03 42 44 9 4 7/02 40 42 14 4 1/01 45 36 15 4
[138]
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
2a.
How old you are? (IF "REFUSED," ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? 18-24 ................................................ 10 50-54 ................................................ 10 [139-140]
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 25-29 ................................................ 30-34 ................................................ 35-39 ................................................ 40-44 ................................................ 45-49 ................................................ 8 12 7 9 12
Study #6054--page 2 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey 55-59 ................................................ 60-64 ................................................ 65-69 ................................................ 70-74 ................................................ 75 and over ..................................... Refused ......................................... 9 7 5 4 7 -
2b.
To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background? Yes, Hispanic........................................ No, not Hispanic................................... Not sure/refused ................................ 11 89 [141]
2c.
And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race--white, black, Asian, or something else? White....................................................... Black....................................................... Asian....................................................... Other....................................................... Hispanic (VOL) ................................... Not sure/refused ................................ 76 11 2 3 8 [142]
3a.
In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing as president? High 11/01 88 7 5 5/04+ 47 46 7 7/03 56 38 6 Low 6/04+ 45 49 6 3/04 50 46 5 5/03+ 62 31 7
Approve ............................................ Disapprove ...................................... Not sure .........................................
5/05 47 47 6 10/04+ 49 47 4 1/04 54 41 6
4/05 48 46 6 9/04+ 47 48 5 12/14/03 58 34 9 3/2930/03 66 29 5 9/02 64 30 6
2/05 50 45 5 8/04+ 47 48 5 12/13/03 52 41 7
1/05 50 44 6 7/04+ 48 46 6 11/03 51 44 5
12/04 49 44 7 6/04+ 45 49 6 9/03 49 45 6
[143]
4/03 71 23 6 10/02+ 63 31 6
1
3/23/03 67 28 5 7/02 67 27 6
3/17/03 62 33 5 6/02 69 23 8
2/031 61 31 8 5/02 75 18 7
1/03 54 40 6 4/02 74 20 6
12/02 62 33 5 4/01 57 22 21
Overnight poll conducted after Colin Powell’s speech to the United Nations. + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
3b.
Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing in handling the economy?
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005
Study #6054--page 3 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Approve ............................................ Disapprove ...................................... Not sure .........................................
5/05 43 51 6 8/04+ 43 52 5 9/03 43 52 6 9/02 48 43 9
4/05 41 53 6 6/04+ 45 49 6 7/03 45 48 7 7/02 49 43 8
2/05 46 50 4 5/04+ 41 53 6 5/03+ 47 45 8 6/02 57 34 9
1/05 47 47 6 3/04 45 51 4 4/03 49 42 9 4/02 61 30 9
12/04 44 51 5 1/04 49 45 6 1/03 44 49 7 1/02 63 27 10
10/04+ 45 52 3 12/13/03 48 46 6 12/02 47 45 8 12/01 63 25 12
9/04+ 45 51 4 11/03 50 44 5 10/02+ 48 44 8 4/01 52 27 21
[144]
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
3c.
In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing in handling our foreign policy? 5/05* 42 52 6 4/05 42 50 8 8/04+ 44 52 4 12/13/03 48 47 5 1/03 51 42 7 4/02 68 26 6 2/05 44 50 6 6/04+ 44 52 4 11/03 48 48 4 12/02 57 36 7 1/02 81 13 6 1/05 46 49 5 5/04+ 43 51 6 9/03 47 46 7 10/02+ 58 35 7 12/01 82 12 6 12/04 45 51 4 3/04 47 48 5 7/03 55 39 6 9/02 55 34 11 4/01 53 20 27 10/04+ 48 46 6 1/04 54 41 5 5/03+ 63 31 6 7/02 62 28 10 9/04+ 44 51 5 12/14/03 56 37 7 4/03 70 24 6 6/02 64 28 8
Approve ............................................ Disapprove...................................... Not sure .........................................
[145]
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
3d.
In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing in handling the situation in Iraq? **
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005
Study #6054--page 4 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Approve .................................................. Disapprove ............................................ Not sure ...............................................
44 52 4
[146]
** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).
4.
In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Congress is doing? High 9/98 61 28 11 9/02 40 44 16 12/00 55 30 15 10/99 42 45 13 6/95 43 43 14 Low 10/90+ 22 69 9 7/02 34 48 18 10/00+ 49 35 16 9/99 40 49 11 5/94 32 56 12
Approve .............................. Disapprove ........................ Not sure ...........................
5/05 33 51 16 11/03 43 45 11 6/02 43 41 16 9/00+ 46 41 13 7/99 43 41 16
4/05 39 46 15 9/03 39 45 16 1/02 54 29 17 7/00+ 46 42 12 6/99 40 42 18
1/05 41 40 19 7/03 42 45 13 12/01 57 29 14 6/00+ 43 46 11 4/99 49 38 13
6/04+ 40 42 18 5/03+ 43 43 14 6/01 47 34 19 4/00+ 42 44 14 3/99 41 45 14
5/04+ 39 43 18 1/03 42 39 19 4/01 43 33 24 3/00+ 43 40 17 1/99 50 40 10
1/04 46 41 13 12/02 44 39 17 3/01 45 32 23 1/00 48 36 16 12/98 44 42 14
12/13/03 39 47 14 10/02+ 44 40 16 1/01 48 35 17 12/99 45 42 13 10/98+ 48 39 13
[147]
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
5.
Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. Don't Know Name/ Not Sure [148] 27 28 31 32 31 36 36 33 22 20 20 19 19 14 13 16 10 11 9 9 9 6 6 8 12 16 13 15 13 13 12 12 29 25 27 25 28 31 33 31 -
Very Positive George W. Bush May 2005 ............................................. April 2005 ............................................ February 2005 .................................... January 2005...................................... December 2004 ................................. October 2004+.................................... September 2004+.............................. August 2004+ .....................................
Somewhat Positive
Neutral
Somewhat Negative
Very Negative
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 July 2004+........................................... June 2004+ ......................................... May 2004+........................................... March 2004 ......................................... January 2004...................................... December 13, 2003 .......................... September 2003 ................................ July 2003 ............................................. January 2003...................................... December 2002 ................................. October 2002+.................................... January 2001...................................... High December 2001 ................................. Low March 2000+....................................... Tom DeLay May 2005 ............................................. April 2005 ............................................ January 2005...................................... December 2004 ................................. December 2000 ................................. July 2000+........................................... July 1999 ............................................. 5 4 4 3 2 3 2 11 13 13 9 7 7 7 19 18 21 26 19 18 19 19 26 21 54 26 9 29 33 30 34 38 35 35 38 36 38 37 25 19 15 19 16 17 19 17 21 20 24 24 25 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 12 14 11 18
Study #6054--page 5 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey 13 14 13 13 13 15 15 14 16 12 12 13 6 15 11 9 10 7 5 4 3 30 30 30 28 24 23 23 17 16 12 15 17 5 17 19 15 10 10 8 9 4 1 1 1 2 2 [149] 35 41 42 45 59 59 65
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
Q.5 (cont’d)
Very Positive The Democratic Party May 2005.............................................. February 2005..................................... December 2004 ................................. October 2004+.................................... September 2004+ .............................. August 2004+...................................... July 2004+ ........................................... September 2003 ................................ July 2003.............................................. December 2002 ................................. September 2002 ................................ December 2001 ................................. December 2000 ................................. July 2000+ ........................................... 12 14 18 17 16 17 16 11 11 13 12 18 23 19
Somewhat Positive 26 28 26 25 26 24 25 29 25 27 26 30 23 27
Neutral 26 28 22 22 20 23 24 22 25 27 30 26 18 24
Somewhat Negative 20 16 19 16 18 16 19 19 20 16 17 14 16 15
Very Negative 14 13 14 19 19 19 14 16 16 15 12 9 18 14
Don't Know Name/ Not Sure [150] 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 1
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 June 1996+ ......................................... High January 2000...................................... Low December 1994 ................................. The Republican Party May 2005.............................................. February 2005..................................... December 2004 ................................. October 2004+.................................... September 2004+ .............................. August 2004+...................................... July 2004+ ........................................... September 2003 ................................ July 2003.............................................. December 2002 ................................. September 2002 ................................ December 2001 ................................. December 2000 ................................. July 2000+ ........................................... June 1996+ ......................................... High December 2001.................................. Low March 1999.......................................... 1 22 23 21 36 18 13 17 19 20 21 18 18 17 18 21 15 21 18 15 11 27 27 27 24 22 26 25 26 30 26 30 36 26 28 25 17 19 18 18 16 17 20 17 16 22 26 18 23 24 25 10 23 25 20 30 23 17 29 23
Study #6054--page 6 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey 15 15 24 19 18 16 15 18 16 18 19 16 15 13 13 14 16 21 13 19 15 10 16 22 18 18 22 22 22 18 18 16 14 13 9 18 15 16 9 23 1 2 2 [151] 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 3 3 1 2 2 3 2
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. Q.5 (cont’d)
Very Positive Laura Bush May 2005................................................ February 2005....................................... December 2004 ................................... August 2004+...................................... December 2001 ................................. March 2001.......................................... January 2001 ...................................... July 2000+ ........................................... Arnold Schwarzenegger May 2005.............................................. December 2004 ................................. August 2004+...................................... November 2003.................................. Bill Frist 16 16 16 14 40 41 40 38 49 28 16 13
Somewhat Positive 25 24 22 19 27 24 18 14 26 28 26 23
Neutral 24 22 21 24 16 33 34 28 30 31 31 32
Somewhat Negative 6 5 7 8 2 3 4 4 14 10 12 14
Very Negative 3 5 6 6 2 2 5 4 9 9 10 10
Don't Know Name/ Not Sure [152] 2 3 4 5 4 10 23 37 [153] 5 6 5 7 [154]
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 May 2005.............................................. April 2005............................................. May 2003.............................................. January 2003 ...................................... Alan Greenspan May 2005.............................................. March 2004.......................................... September 2003 ................................ June 2001............................................ April 2001............................................. March 2001.......................................... January 2001 ...................................... April 2000+ .......................................... December 1998 ................................. 14 15 20 21 25 24 31 23 23 29 30 34 34 30 31 25 28 24 26 28 21 20 20 25 18 22 23 5 6 5 7 9 9 10 10 18 19 15 22
Study #6054--page 7 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey 8 8 6 3 8 7 7 7 7 5 8 6 4 8 6 2 3 4 7 3 4 2 3 3 4 2 52 52 61 55 [155] 19 13 16 14 16 12 15 17 24
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
6a.
In the next election for U.S. Congress, do you feel that your representative deserves to be reelected, or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance? 5/05+ 42 45 13 10/04+ 49 34 17 10/98+ 48 37 15 9/93 37 47 16 1/92+ 42 48 10 10/02+ 42 39 19 12/97+ 41 45 14 7/93 30 55 15 12/91+ 35 52 13 9/02 41 42 17 10/94+ 39 49 12 10/92+ 31 56 13 10/91+ 40 48 12 10/00+ 50 35 15 9/94 30 53 17 9/92+ 31 56 13 10/90+ 39 48 13 9/00+ 49 38 13 5/94 34 50 16 7/92+ 27 62 11 11/89+ 41 36 23 6/00+ 49 39 12 1/94 35 47 18 4/92+ 33 57 10 12/99 42 47 11 10/93 34 52 14 2/92+ 37 52 11
Deserves to be reelected ......... Give new person a chance....... Not sure .....................................
[156]
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
6b.
What is your preference for the outcome of the 2006 congressional elections ––a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?
10/29- 10/165/05+1 31/04+ 18/04+ 9/04+ Republican-controlled Congress........ 40 43 44 42 Democrat-controlled Congress........... 47 44 44 46 Not sure 3 ............................................... 13 13 12 12 10/02+ 9/02 7/02
6/04+ 42 44 14 6/02
5/04+ 3/04+ 41 42 44 45 15 13 1/02 12/01
1/04 42 43 15 12/99
12/13/03 42 42 16 10/99
[157]
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 43 42 15 7/99 39 43 18 2/98 41 37 22
1 2
Study #6054--page 8 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey 42 42 16 4/99 41 40 19 12/97 41 37 22 43 41 16 3/99 37 43 20 9/97 41 39 20 42 41 17 10/98+ 41 43 16 7/97 45 39 16 44 40 16 9/98 40 39 21 4/97 44 38 18 42 40 18 7/98 41 40 19 1/96 41 38 21 40 44 16 6/98 39 40 21 12/95 42 41 17 39 41 20 4/98 37 41 22 10/942 44 38 18
6/99 42 41 17 1/98 40 42 18
Prior to May 2005 the question was phrased, “What is your preference for the outcome of the upcoming congressional elections . . . .” In October 1994, the question referred to the 1994 congressional elections; the 1995 and 1996 survey dates referred to the 1996 congressional elections; the 1997 and 1998 dates refer to the 1998 congressional elections. 3 The volunteered responses "both equal,” "neither in control,” or "doesn't matter,” were reported separately; for purposes of comparative they are combined with "not sure.” + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
6c.
How much confidence do you have in Congress--a great deal, quite a bit, some, very little, or none at all? A Great Deal Of Confidenc e Quite A Bit Of Confidenc e 12 24 16 18 14 10 10 20 31 21 28 26 No Confidenc e At All
Some Confidenc e 53 44 48 48 46 41 39 41 43 41 34 38
Very Little Confidenc e 23 15 18 20 32 41 43 26 12 22 17 18
Not Sure [158]
Congress May 2005 ............................................. January 2002...................................... December 2000 ................................. June 1998 ......................................... February 1997 5 .................................. January 1996 .................................... December 19913................................ December 1988 ............................... October 1986 4.................................... November 1981 ............................... January 1977 .................................... June 1975 4 .........................................
4 4 4 2 1
6 13 10 10 7 4 7 8 10 8 12 14
5 3 6 2 NA 3 NA NA 1 6 1 1
1 1 2 2 1 1 1 6 3 3 7 3
PLEASE NOTE: Comparative data shown does not necessarily reflect all of the existing data for an item. It is possible that an institution received higher or lower confidence ratings in a survey that is not shown. 1 Comparative data comes from Gallup/CNN/USA Today surveys. 2 Comparative data comes from a survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research for the Kaiser Foundation, Harvard University, and the Washington Post. 3 Comparative data comes from a survey conducted by ABC News. 4 Comparative data comes from surveys conducted by Gallup. 5 Comparative data comes from a survey conducted by Hart/Teeter for the Council for Excellence in Government.
7.
Generally speaking do you feel that, (READ ITEM) has the same priorities for the country as you do, or do you think that (READ ITEM) has different priorities for the country than you do?
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005
Study #6054--page 9 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY HAS SAME PRIORITIES
Has Same Priorities President Bush............................................... The Democrats in Congress **................... The Republicans in Congress **................ Congress * ......................................................
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).
Has Different Priorities 57 48 55 65
Some Of Both/Depend s (VOL) 7 14 9 14
Not Sure 1 4 3 4 [159/161] [162] [163] [160]
35 34 33 17
8.
I'm going to list some issues, and for each one, please tell me whether you think that President Bush and his administration are placing too much emphasis on this issue, too little emphasis, or the right amount of emphasis. *
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY TOO MUCH EMPHASIS
Too Much Emphasis Iraq.......................................................... Issues related to moral values ......... Social Security...................................... Afghanistan........................................... Terrorism............................................... Homeland security .............................. Immigration........................................... Gas prices ............................................. Education .............................................. Health care............................................ Jobs and the economy.......................
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A).
Too Little Emphasis 12 27 40 24 25 28 56 64 57 75 65
Right Amount Of Emphasis 34 39 27 41 52 52 21 22 31 20 31
Not Sure 5 4 6 9 4 3 9 5 4 2 3 [165] [172] [166] [169] [174] [173] [170] [164] [168] [171] [167]
49 30 27 26 19 17 14 9 8 3 1
9.
Do you think that Congress and the President are working together to end the gridlock in Washington, or do you think that things will stay pretty much as they are now because Congress and the President always have differences? 5/05 13 80 7
Congress and President will be able to work together..... Things will be pretty much as they were before ................. Not sure....................................................................................
[175]
Now that the presidency and the Congress are both controlled by the same party, do you expect that Congress and the President will be able to work together to end the gridlock in Washington or do you think that things will stay pretty much as they are now because Congress and the President always have differences? Congress and President will be able to work together ...................................... Things will be pretty much as they were before................................................... 1/03 41 51 12/02 48 46
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005
Study #6054--page 10 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey 8 6
Not sure .....................................................................................................................
10.
How important is it to you personally who gets appointed to be federal judges --very important, somewhat important, not that important, or not important at all? Very important....................................... Somewhat important........................... Not that important................................. Not important at all............................... Not sure ............................................... 53 28 11 7 1 [176]
11.
When there are vacancies in the federal court system, should the Senate generally confirm the President's judicial nominees as long as they are honest and competent, or should the Senate make its own decision about the fitness of each nominee to serve? Should generally confirm president’s nominees ... Should make its own decision .................................. Depends (VOL)........................................................... Not sure........................................................................ 34 56 5 5 [177]
12.
I am going to read you a series of actions that have recently been in the news. For each one, please tell me whether you generally support this action, generally oppose this action, feel neutral about this action, or whether you do not care about this action.
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY GENERALLY SUPPORT ACTION
Generally Support Action Congress holding hearings on gas prices ......................................................... Congress investigating Congressman Tom DeLay's travel and working relationship with lobbyists .................................................... Congress considering changing the Social Security system to allow people to invest some of their Social Security taxes in private accounts......... Congress considering putting an end to the Senate's filibuster procedure, which requires sixty senators rather than fifty-one to end debate and hold a confirmation vote for judicial nominees .............................. Democrats in the Senate preventing President Bush's judicial nominations from coming up for a vote ............................................................. 66
Generally Oppose Action 13
Feel Neutral About This Action 14
Do Not Care About This Action 5
Not Sure 2 [180]
52
12
15
16
5
[178]
39
45
11
2
3
[209]
31
32
19
13
5
[179]
30
38
21
7
4
[208]
13.
Please tell me which of the following statements comes closer to your point of view.
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005
Study #6054--page 11 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Statement A: America is doing too much in other countries around the world, and it is time to do less around the world and focus more on our own problems here at home. Statement B: America must continue to push forward to promote democracy and freedom in other countries around the world because these efforts will make our own country more secure Statement A/focus on problems at home . Statement B/continue to promote democracy in other countries ....................... Depends/some of both (VOL)..................... Not sure .......................................................... 54 33 11 2 [210]
14.
Would you favor or oppose the United States' taking military action to stop (READ ITEM) nuclear program? * Depends (VOL) 8 8 Not Sure 6 7 [211] [212]
Favor Iran's ....................................................... North Korea's ........................................ 45 43
Oppose 41 42
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A).
15.
How much confidence would you say that you have in the United Nations--a great deal of confidence, quite a lot of confidence, not very much confidence, or none at all? 5/05** 9 21 47 20 3 9/951 10 41 36 14 NA
A great deal of confidence............................. Quite a lot of confidence ................................ Not very much confidence ............................. None at all ........................................................ Not sure ..........................................................
[213]
** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). 1 Comparative data comes from a Gallup/CNN/USA Today survey.
16.
Over the past twelve months, do you think that the nation's economy has gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same? 5/05 20 42 37 1 3/04+ 35 34 29 1 3/01 17 44 38 1/05 31 28 40 1 1/04 43 23 34 1 3/92 6 73 20 10/04+ 30 34 35 1 12/13/03 45 27 27 1 1/92 2 78 19 9/04+ 29 36 34 1 11/03 38 29 31 1 12/91 3 74 22 8/04+ 29 33 37 1 9/03 27 41 30 2 10/91 6 67 26 7/04+ 37 31 30 2 7/03 23 42 34 1 9/91 8 57 33 6/04+ 39 28 31 2 5/03+ 18 44 36 1 7/91 9 64 26 6/04+ 39 28 31 2 12/01 6 65 28 1 6/91 11 54 35 5/04+ 35 33 31 1 4/011 7 57 35 1 5/91 8 64 27
Economy has gotten better....................... Economy has gotten worse...................... Economy has stayed about the same.... Not sure ......................................................
[214]
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 1 12/90 3 73 23 1
1
Study #6054--page 12 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey 1 9/90 6 57 35 2 1 7/90 11 37 51 1 1 5/90 11 36 52 1 1 4/90 12 30 56 2 2 3/90 12 30 56 2 1 1/90 12 29 57 2 11/89 15 34 49 2 1 9/89 18 23 57 2
10/90 3 72 24 1
Prior to April 2001, the question was phrased, “Over the past year…” + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
17.
During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? 5/05 28 30 36 6 1/05 43 17 36 4 9/03 44 19 33 4 4/02 50 13 32 5 7/95 20 21 54 5 1/94 44 16 36 4 1/93 50 9 39 2 10/04+ 43 10 33 14 7/03 45 16 34 4 12/01 50 15 32 3 4/95 24 23 50 3 12/93 43 19 34 4 12/92 53 10 35 2 9/04+ 43 13 33 11 5/03+ 49 17 31 3 4/011 36 25 34 5 12/94 31 17 46 6 10/93 21 27 50 2 5/92 32 20 45 3 5/04+ 42 16 34 8 1/03 35 25 37 3 3/01 28 29 37 6 10/94 31 24 40 5 9/93 23 24 51 2 9/91 31 24 40 5 3/04+ 44 18 35 3 12/02 40 20 35 5 10/98+ 17 24 54 5 9/94 28 24 44 4 7/93 20 29 48 3 1/04 50 10 37 3 10/02+ 41 20 34 5 9/98 19 22 53 6 6/94 28 17 52 3 6/93 23 27 47 3 12/13/03 53 10 33 3 9/02 39 18 39 4 4/97 19 22 57 2 5/94 27 21 49 3 4/93 33 21 44 2 11/03 49 15 33 3 7/02 41 20 37 2 1/96 21 21 52 6 3/94 29 16 52 3 3/93 39 15 43 3
Economy will get better............. Economy will get worse............ Economy will stay about the same...................................... Not sure .....................................
[215]
1
Prior to April 2001, the question was phrased, “During the next year…” + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 18.
Study #6054--page 13 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
I'd like to list some economic issues. As of right now, which one do you feel is the most important economic issue facing the country? (IF "ALL," ASK:) Well, if you had to choose just one, which would it be?
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE
Unemployment ............................. The federal budget deficit1 .......... Gas prices 2 .................................... Trade deficit3.................................. Inflation........................................... Federal taxes................................. Interest rates ................................. All equally important (VOL) ....... None (VOL).................................. Not sure........................................
5/05 24 20 17 9 7 7 3 11 1 1 1/94
1/05 23 19 NA NA 6 6 3 10 1 12/93 40 25 NA 7 6 11 2 7 2
11/03 41 16 NA NA 5 9 2 13 2 10/93 43 26 NA 6 5 12 3 4 1
9/03 48 13 NA NA 4 6 1 14 2 9/93 40 26 NA 8 8 11 2 4 1
7/03 41 14 NA NA 5 7 2 15 2 7/93 37 31 NA 6 8 10 2 4 1 1
7/02 25 11 6 NA 6 8 3 11 1 1 6/93 40 28 NA 8 6 11 2 4 1
4/01 13 9 38 6 10 11 5 7 1 4/93 44 28 NA 7 4 9 2 5 1
3/01 11 9 35 6 8 14 5 10 1 1 3/93 44 28 NA 8 7 7 2 3 1
1/01 10 18 26 7 8 11 6 12 2 1/93 44 28 NA 8 7 5 2 5 1
6/94 35 30 NA 8 6 11 5 4 1
5/94 35 24 NA 9 8 12 4 6 2
3/94 33 33 NA 9 6 10 2 5 2 9/91 37 21 NA 8 11 7 3 10 3 [216-217]
12/92 5/92 46 24 NA 10 6 5 3 5 1 46 22 NA 8 7 5 2 8 2
Unemployment ............................. The federal budget deficit .......... Trade deficit3.................................. Inflation........................................... Federal taxes................................. Interest rates ................................. All equally important (VOL) ....... None (VOL).................................. Not sure........................................
1 1
37 31 9 5 8 2 5 1 2
Gas prices 2 .................................... NA
Between January 2005 and March 2001, the item was phrased, “The federal budget.” Prior to March 2001, the item was phrased, “Keeping the federal budget balanced.” 2 Between July 2002 and January 2001, the item was phrased, “Energy prices.” 3 Prior to April 2001, the item was phrased, “The U.S. trade deficit.”
19.
In looking at the next twelve months, do you think that it will be a time of economic expansion for you and your family and an opportunity to move ahead, or do you think that it will be a time to hold back and save because harder times are ahead? 5/05 30 61 7 2 1/05 40 51 6 3 3/01 32 56 7 5 1/01 29 60 7 4 12/98 32 57 5 6
Time of expansion/opportunity.................... Time to hold back/harder times ahead...... Some of both (VOL) ..................................... Not sure .........................................................
[218]
20.
When it comes to dealing with the economy, which party do you think would do a better job--the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, both about the same, or neither? 5/05 33 25 12/041 39 30
Democratic Party............................................. Republican Party.............................................
[219]
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 Both about the same...................................... Neither............................................................. Not sure ..........................................................
1
Study #6054--page 14 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey 30 10 2 20 7 4
In December 2004, the item was asked as part of a list with multiple other issues.
21.
I'm going to mention a few elements of the economy. For each one, please tell me whether you think that the Bush administration's policies are working well in this area, are not working well in this area, or are not having much impact either way.
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY WORKING WELL
Working Well Keeping interest rates low * .................................. Expanding trade with other countries **.............. Keeping taxes low *................................................. Encouraging people to save for retirement *...... Improving the economy overall ............................. Controlling inflation ** ............................................. Expanding the number of new jobs * ................... Keeping white-collar jobs in this country ** ........ Managing the federal budget ** ............................ Dealing with the price of gas **............................. Keeping manufacturing jobs in this country* .....
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).
Not Working Well 32 34 43 38 39 43 48 48 65 67 69
Not Having An Impact Either Way 18 20 20 24 28 22 22 19 14 20 16
Not Sure 6 12 3 6 3 7 6 10 6 2 5 [225] [229] [222] [224] [220] [230] [223] [226] [227] [228] [221]
44 34 34 32 30 28 24 23 15 11 10
22.
Do you tend to deal with gas prices by making changes and adjustments in your family budget to take paying for gas into consideration, or do you make changes and adjustments in how much you drive and how much gas you use, or do you do neither? Make changes in family budget.................... Make changes in amount of driving............. Neither............................................................... Some of both (VOL) ...................................... Not sure .......................................................... 14 38 37 11 [231]
23a.
Please tell me which ONE of the following you think is most responsible for high gas prices.
And now please tell me which of the following you think is second most responsible for high gas prices.
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE
Oil-producing nations ............................ Oil companies ......................................... President Bush .......................................
Q.23a Top Choice 31 28 14
Q.23a/b Top/Second Choice 56 54 26
[232-233/ 234-235]
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 American consumers ............................ Federal environmental regulations ..... Car manufacturers ................................. The U.S. Congress................................. Other (VOL) ............................................ None (VOL) ............................................ Not sure .................................................. 8 6 3 3 3 1 3 CONTINUE
Study #6054--page 15 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey 18 16 12 11 4 -
Skip to Q.24
24.
How much control do you think the government has over gas prices--a great deal of control, quite a bit of control, just some control, or very little control? A great deal of control.......................... Quite a bit of control............................. Just some control ................................ Very little control.................................... Not sure .............................................. 24 21 30 23 2 [236]
Now I'd like to ask you a couple of questions about Social Security . . . 25a. In general, do you think that it is a good idea or a bad idea to change the Social Security system to allow workers to invest their Social Security contributions in the stock market? 5/05 36 56 8 4/05 35 55 10 2/05 40 51 9 1/05 40 50 10 12/04 38 50 12
Good idea.............................................. Bad idea ................................................ Not sure ...............................................
CONTINUE Skip to Q.26
[237]
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY GOOD IDEA OR BAD IDEA IN Q.25a.) 25b. When it comes to allowing workers to invest some of their Social Security contributions in the stock market, would you say that your position is completely firm and unlikely to change, or would you say that you are open to changing your mind on this issue? Good Idea (Q.25a) 5/05 4/05 2/05 37 32 31 62 65 68 1 3 1 Bad Idea (Q.25a) 5/05 4/05 62 53 36 45 2 2
Position is firm/unlikely to change .... Open to changing mind....................... Not sure................................................
2/05 60 39 1
[238]
26.
Please tell me which of the following approaches to dealing with Social Security you would prefer––(A) making some adjustments but leaving the Social Security system basically as is and running the risk that the system will fall short of money as more people retire and become eligible for benefits, OR (B) changing the Social Security system by allowing people to invest some of their Social Security taxes in private accounts--such as IRA's or 401k's--and running the risk that some people will lose money in their private accounts due to drops in the stock market? 5/05 4/05 48 2/05 50 1/05 44 12/04 39 8/04+1 43 1/04 52 [239]
A/Making some adjustments but leaving the Social Security system basically as is ............. B/Changing Social Security to allow people to invest some of their Social Security taxes
47
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 in private accounts............................................... Neither/other(VOL)............................................. Depends (VOL) ................................................. Not sure ...............................................................
1
Study #6054--page 16 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey 39 6 4 4 40 6 4 2 40 5 3 2 46 5 2 3 45 7 4 5 41 8 3 5 38 5 1 4
Prior to August 2004, the phrase, “. . . like IRAs or 401k’s. . .” was not included. + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
27.
Which of the following do you think best describes the financial situation of Social Security today--it is in crisis, it is in serious trouble but not in crisis, it is in some trouble, or it is not really in trouble at all? 5/05** 14 39 36 8 1 2 4/05 17 37 36 7 1 2 2/05 17 35 39 7 2 1/05 14 38 38 7 1 2
In crisis ............................................................. In serious trouble but not in crisis ............... In some trouble ............................................... Not really in trouble at all............................... Depends (VOL) ............................................. Not sure ..........................................................
** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).
[240]
28.
If there is a time in the future when Social Security benefits must be reduced, which approach would you favor? Approach A: Reduce benefits by an equal percentage across the board for all workers to maintain Social Security as a program where your benefits depend on what you paid in the system. Approach B: Reduce benefits by a higher percentage for workers earning more than twenty-five thousand dollars, while making no change for workers who make less than this so that those with the most need receive the most benefits. Approach A............................................ Approach B............................................ Not sure ............................................... 40 50 10 [241]
29.
Would you support or oppose--sometime in the future--raising the age at which workers can receive Social Security benefits? Would support ...................................... Would oppose ...................................... Not sure ............................................... 33 62 5 [242]
Turning to the war in Iraq . . . 30. When it comes to the war in Iraq, do you think that removing Saddam Hussein from power was or was not worth the number of U.S. military casualties and the financial cost of the war? 5/05 40 51 4 5 4/05 44 48 4 4 9/04+ 2/05 44 49 3 4 8/04+ 1/05 40 52 3 5 7/04+ 12/04 43 48 6 3 6/04+ 10/04+ 41 50 4 5 5/04+
Worth it...................................... Not worth it................................ Depends (VOL)...................... Not sure ..................................
[243]
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 40 52 3 5 3/04 50 45 1 4 43 49 4 4 1/04 52 40 2 5 43 47 4 6 12/14/03 53 37 5 5
Study #6054--page 17 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey 40 51 5 4 12/13/03 45 42 6 6 42 47 5 6 11/03 45 46 3 5
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
31.
Do you think that the United States should maintain its current troop level in Iraq to help secure peace and stability, or should the United States now reduce its number of troops since elections have been held? 5/05 40 53 4 3 4/05 43 49 4 4 2/05 41 50 4 5 1/051 42 48 6 4 12/04 45 41 9 5
Maintain current troop level .......................... Reduce number of troops ............................ Depends/some of both (VOL).................... Not sure .........................................................
1
[244]
Prior to February 2005, the question was phrased, “If Iraq's elections do take place on January thirtieth as planned . . . .”
32.
And do you feel more confident or less confident that the war in Iraq will come to a successful conclusion? 5/05 40 50 6 4 4/05 44 45 6 5 2/05 47 43 5 5 1/05 41 48 6 5 12/04 41 48 6 5 10/04+ 46 41 8 5 9/04+ 37 53 5 5
More confident...................................... Less confident...................................... Depends/some of both (VOL) ......... Not sure ...............................................
[245]
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
33a.
Thinking about Iraq six months ago compared with today, is Iraq closer to having a stable, democratic government, farther from having a stable, democratic government, or is it pretty much in the same place that it was six months ago? * Closer to having a stable, democratic government....... Farther from having stable, democratic government.... Same place it was six months ago .................................. Not sure .................................................................................
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A).
40 12 44 4
[246]
33b.
When it comes to the violence in Iraq, do you think that the amount of violence is greater, less, or about the same as it was six months ago? ** Violence greater than six months ago ............. Violence is less than six months ago .............. Violence is about same as six months ago ... Not sure ...............................................................
** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).
41 18 37 4
[247]
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005
Study #6054--page 18 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
34.
When it comes to the war in Iraq, do you consider the war to be a clear victory for the United States, a partial victory, neither a victory nor a defeat, a defeat, or is it too early to know? Clear victory........................................... Partial victory......................................... Neither a victory nor a defeat.............. A defeat.................................................. Too early to know ................................. Not sure ............................................... 10 16 34 9 30 1 [248]
Turning to some other topics . . . 35. As you may know, President Bush has proposed to allow foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States to apply for legal, temporary-worker status. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this proposal? 5/05 13 25 19 39 2 2 4/05 14 29 20 33 2 2 1/041 [249] } 40 } 53 }7
Strongly favor......................................... Somewhat favor.................................... Somewhat oppose .............................. Strongly oppose ................................... Depends (VOL)................................... Not sure ...............................................
1
In January 2004 the question was phrased, “As you may know, President Bush is proposing to allow foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States to apply for legal, temporary-worker status. Do you favor or oppose this proposal?”
36.
There are some groups of private citizens who believe that the federal government does not have the ability to patrol the borders of the United States by itself. These groups conduct their own armed patrols of the U.S. border separate and independent from the government's patrols. Do you favor or oppose private citizens conducting independent patrols of the United States' borders? Favor....................................................... Oppose .................................................. Not sure ............................................... 40 54 6 [250]
37.
Which of the following best represents your views about abortion--the choice on abortion should be left up to the woman and her doctor, abortion should be legal only in cases in which pregnancy results from rape or incest or when the life of the woman is at risk, or abortion should be illegal in all circumstances? 5/05 55 29 14 2 11/03 53 29 15 3 8/96 56 30 12 2 1/03 59 29 9 3 6/96+ 58 31 9 2 7/00+ 57 29 12 2 5/96+ 55 35 7 3 6/00+ 57 32 9 2 3/96 56 31 10 3 1/97 60 26 11 3
Should be left up to the woman and her doctor .... Legal only in cases of rape/incest/life of the woman is at risk.......................................................... Illegal in all circumstances ....................................... Not sure ......................................................................
[251]
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005
Study #6054--page 19 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
12/95 60 28 10 2
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
7/91 60 31 8 1
6/91 57 36 7 -
7/90 57 33 8 2
38.
I'm going to mention several nations around the world. For each one, please tell me whether you think that country or countries are currently a serious economic competitor of the United States, will be a serious economic competitor to the United States in the future, or will never really be a serious economic competitor to the United States? **
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY CURRENTLY AN ECONOMIC COMPETITOR
Currently An Economic Competitor Japan......................................................................... China ......................................................................... The European Union .............................................. India........................................................................... Mexico........................................................................ Russia....................................................................... South American and Latin American nations .... African nations .........................................................
** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).
Economic Competitor In The Future 19 30 35 37 27 40 38 20
Will Never Be An Economic Competitor 7 5 15 32 51 42 44 68
Not Sure 3 4 11 8 5 6 9 9 [254] [252] [259] [258] [256] [253] [257] [255]
71 61 39 23 17 12 9 3
FACTUALS: Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only. F1. Are you currently registered to vote at this address? Registered ............................................ Not registered....................................... Not sure .............................................. 88 11 1 [260]
F2.
A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the November 2004 election for president? (IF "YES," ASK:) For whom did you vote––George W. Bush, John Kerry, or someone else? Voted George W. Bush................................. John Kerry............................................ Someone else.................................... Refused (VOL).................................... Did Not Vote.......................................... Not sure ...............................................
41 36 3 3 16 1
[261]
F3.
Are you currently employed? (IF CURRENTLY EMPLOYED:) What type of work do you do?
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005
Study #6054--page 20 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
(IF NOT CURRENTLY EMPLOYED:) Are you a student, a homemaker, retired, or unemployed and looking for work? Currently Employed Professional/ manager....................... 23 [262] White-collar worker.............................. 22 Blue-collar worker................................ 17 Farmer, rancher ................................... 1 Not Currently Employed Student................................................... 2 Homemaker.......................................... 8 Retired ................................................... 21 Unemployed, looking for work........... 4 Other..................................................... Not sure ............................................... 2
F4.
What is the last grade that you completed in school? Grade school..................................................................... Some high school ............................................................ High school graduate ...................................................... Some college, no degree ............................................... Vocational training/2-year college................................. 4-year college/bachelor's degree.................................. Some postgraduate work, no degree........................... 2 or 3 years’ postgraduate work/master's degree ..... Doctoral/law degree......................................................... Not sure/refused............................................................. 1 6 27 20 11 18 3 10 3 1 [270-271]
F5.
Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/ Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? Strong Democrat............................................. Not very strong Democrat.............................. Independent/lean Democrat......................... Strictly independent........................................ Independent/lean Republican ...................... Not very strong Republican ........................... Strong Republican .......................................... Other ................................................................. Not sure/nothing............................................ 20 10 11 17 11 8 17 4 2 [272]
F6.
Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or conservative? Liberal...................................................... Moderate ................................................. Conservative........................................... Not sure................................................. 21 42 32 5 [273]
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 F7a.
Study #6054--page 21 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Are you currently single and never married, single and living with a partner, married, separated, widowed, or divorced? Single ..................................................... Single, living with partner.................... Married ................................................... Separated.............................................. Widowed ................................................ Divorced................................................. Other (VOL).......................................... Not sure/refused ................................ 19 6 57 2 6 9 1 [274]
F7b.
Are you the parent or primary guardian of any children under the age of 18? Yes .......................................................... No............................................................ Not sure/refused ................................ 36 63 1 [275]
F8.
Were your parents immigrants to the United States, or were they born in this country? Parents were immigrants ............................................................. Parents born in this country ......................................................... One parent is an immigrant/one parent born here (VOL) .... Not sure/refused .......................................................................... 10 84 4 2 [276]
F9.
Do you own or lease a vehicle? (IF “YES,” ASK:) Please tell me which of the following types of vehicles you own or lease. A passenger car ................................... A pick-up truck....................................... A sport utility vehicle, or SUV.............. A minivan or station wagon................ A hybrid car............................................ Other (VOL).......................................... Do not own/lease a car ....................... Not sure ............................................... 59 21 21 14 2 11 1 [277] >
F10a.
What is your religion? Protestant (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Methodist, Episcopal, Presbyterian, and other Christians)..................................................................... Catholic .......................................................................... Jewish............................................................................ Muslim............................................................................ Other............................................................................... None ............................................................................... Not sure/refused ........................................................
51 24 2 10 10 3
CONTINUE
[278]
Skip to Q.F11
CONTINUE
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY THEY ARE PROTESTANT, OTHER, NONE, OR NOT SURE IN Q.F10a.) F10b. Would you describe yourself as either a fundamentalist or an evangelical Christian, or would you not describe yourself that way?
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005
Study #6054--page 22 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Fundamentalist/evangelical............................... Neither fundamentalist nor evangelical........... Not sure ............................................................... Catholic/Jewish/Muslim (Q.F10a).....................
19 47 8 26
[279]
F11.
How often do you attend services at a church, synagogue, or other place of worship? Never ...................................................... Once a year ........................................... A few times a year................................ Once a month ....................................... About twice a month ............................ Once a week or more often................ Not sure ............................................... 17 7 17 9 9 37 4 [280]
F12a.
Do you own a cell phone? Yes .......................................................... No............................................................ Not sure/refused ................................ 70 28 2 [308]
F12b.
How likely are you to stop using a land line in your home and switch instead to using only a cell phone— very likely, somewhat likely, not that likely, or not likely at all? Very likely............................................... Somewhat likely ................................... Not that likely......................................... Not likely at all....................................... Not sure ............................................... 10 17 18 52 3 [309]
F13.
Are you a member of a labor union? (IF "NO," ASK:) Is anyone else in this household a member of a labor union? Labor union member............................ Labor union household........................ Nonunion household............................ Not sure................................................. 10 6 82 2 [310]
F14.
If you added together the yearly income of all the members of your family who were living at home last year, would the total be less than ten thousand dollars, between ten thousand dollars and twenty thousand dollars, between twenty thousand dollars and thirty thousand dollars, between thirty thousand dollars and forty thousand dollars, between forty thousand dollars and fifty thousand dollars, between fifty thousand dollars and seventy-five thousand dollars, between seventy-five thousand dollars and one hundred thousand dollars, or would the total be more than that? Less than $ 10,000.......................................... Between $10,000 and $20,000 .................... Between $20,000 and $30,000 .................... Between $30,000 and $40,000 .................... Between $40,000 and $50,000 .................... Between $50,000 and $75,000 .................... 5 8 10 10 10 18 [311]
HART/MCINTURFF May 2005 Between $75,000 and $100,000.................. More than $100,000........................................ Not sure/refused ........................................... 12 13 14
Study #6054--page 23 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll was based on nationwide telephone interviews of 1,005 American adults, conducted May 12-16 by the polling organizations of Peter Hart and Bill McInturff. The sample was drawn in the following manner: 300 geographic points were randomly selected proportionate to the population of each region and, within each region, by size of place. Individuals were selected by a method that gave all telephone numbers, listed and unlisted, an equal chance of being included. One adult, 18 years or older, was selected from each household by a procedure to provide a balance of respondents by sex. The data's margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Sample tolerances for subgroups are larger.