WSJNBC News Poll

HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20009 (202) 234-5570 FINAL Study #6086 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey September 2008 Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated. Study #6086--page 1 NBC News/WSJ Survey Interviews: 860 registered voters Dates: September 6-8, 2008 48 Male 52 Female [109] The margin of error for a crossection of 860 interviews is ± 3.3% 1a. Are you currently registered to vote at this address? Registered .......................................... Not registered..................................... Not sure ............................................ 100 CONTINUE TERMINATE [139] (ASK ONLY OF SAMPLE TYPE 2 - CELL PHONE ONLY RESPONDENTS.) 1b. Do you have a landline in addition to your cell phone, or is your cell phone the only telephone you have? + Have a landline................................... Cell phone is only telephone ............. Not sure ............................................ 100 TERMINATE CONTINUE TERMINATE [140] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 2a. For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are? (IF “REFUSED,” ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? + 18-24................................................... 25-29................................................... 30-34................................................... 35-39................................................... 40-44................................................... 45-49................................................... 50-54................................................... 55-59................................................... 60-64................................................... 65-69................................................... 70-74................................................... 75 and over......................................... Not sure/refused............................... 8 9 9 8 13 6 10 9 9 5 7 6 1 [141-142] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 2b. To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background? + Yes, Hispanic ..................................... No, not Hispanic................................. Not sure/refused ................................ 8 92 [143] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 2c. Study #6086--page 2 NBC News/WSJ Survey And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race––white, black, Asian, or something else? + White................................................... Black ................................................... Asian................................................... Other................................................... Hispanic (VOL)................................... Not sure/refused ................................ 80 9 1 3 6 1 [144] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 3. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing as president? High Low 4/08+ 27 66 7 3/07 35 60 5 6/06 37 58 5 7/05 46 49 5 9/04+ 47 48 5 12/13/03 52 41 7 3/23/03 67 28 5 6/02 69 23 8 [145] 3/710/08+ 32 63 5 6/07 29 66 5 9/811/06+ 42 53 5 10/05 39 54 7 12/04 49 44 7 3/04 50 46 5 4/03 71 23 6 9/02 64 30 6 Approve ................ Disapprove ........... Not sure .............. 9/08+ 34 61 5 1/08+ 32 63 5 1/07 35 60 5 8/08+ 31 64 5 12/07+ 34 60 6 12/06 34 61 5 4/06 36 57 7 5/05 47 47 6 8/04+ 47 48 5 11/03 51 44 5 3/17/03 62 33 5 7/08+ 30 64 6 11/07 31 63 6 10/2830/06+ 39 57 4 3/06 37 58 5 4/05 48 46 6 7/04+ 48 46 6 9/03 49 45 6 2/031 61 31 8 6/08+ 28 66 6 9/07 33 61 6 10/1316/06+ 38 57 5 1/06 39 54 7 2/05 50 45 5 6/04+ 45 49 6 7/03 56 38 6 1/03 54 40 6 4/08+ 27 66 7 7/07 31 63 6 9/3010/2/06+ 39 56 5 12/05 39 55 6 1/05 50 44 6 5/04+ 47 46 7 5/03+ 62 31 7 10/02+ 63 31 6 11/01 88 7 5 4/07 35 60 5 7/06 39 56 5 9/05 40 55 5 10/04+ 49 47 4 12/14/03 58 34 9 3/2930/03 66 29 5 7/02 67 27 6 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 Study #6086--page 3 NBC News/WSJ Survey 4. Please tell me how interested you are in November's elections, using a scale from one to ten, on which a "ten" means that you are very interested in November's elections and a "one" means that you are not at all interested. You may choose any number from one to ten. 10, very interested........................ 9 .................................................... 8 .................................................... 7 .................................................... 6 .................................................... 5 .................................................... 4 .................................................... 3 .................................................... 2 .................................................... 1, not at all interested .................. Cannot rate................................. 9/08+ 69 10 10 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 8/08+ 65 8 11 5 2 3 1 1 1 3 1/08+ 66 10 10 4 3 4 1 1 1 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 7/08+ 64 8 12 5 3 4 1 1 2 12/07+ 65 8 12 5 2 4 1 1 2 - 6/08+ 67 7 11 5 2 4 1 1 2 11/07 59 9 12 7 3 5 1 1 3 - 4/08+ 65 9 11 4 3 3 1 2 2 10/04+ 74 8 9 3 2 2 1 1 - 3/08+ 67 8 10 5 2 3 1 1 2 1 9/04+ 71 7 9 5 2 4 1 1 - [146-147] HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 Study #6086--page 4 NBC News/WSJ Survey 5. Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. Don't Know Name/ Not Sure [148] 15 15 14 11 12 16 16 14 16 18 13 17 19 21 24 20 24 27 32 33 38 35 40 30 54 11 18 19 18 19 19 17 18 18 20 18 20 19 19 18 17 18 18 20 19 15 17 17 26 23 26 19 12 11 10 10 13 12 10 10 11 11 11 13 10 10 12 12 10 10 9 8 8 9 11 16 9 10 14 15 16 16 14 13 12 17 13 13 15 14 15 15 13 15 14 15 15 14 13 15 11 15 6 16 41 40 42 44 42 41 43 40 40 40 41 37 37 36 33 35 34 28 25 30 24 23 12 15 5 44 1 1 1 1 1 1 - Very Positive George W. Bush September 2008+ ....... August 2008+.............. July 2008+................... June 2008+ ................. April 2008+.................. March 24-25, 2008+ ... March 7-10, 2008+ ..... January 2008 .............. December 2007 .......... September 2007 ......... July 2007..................... April 2007 .................... December 2006 .......... July 2006..................... January 2006 .............. November 2005 .......... September 2005 ......... July 2005..................... January 2005 .............. June 2004+ ................. January 2004 .............. September 2003 ......... July 2002..................... June 2001 ................... High December 2001 .......... Low June 2008+ ................. Somewhat Positive Neutral Somewhat Negative Very Negative + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 Study #6086--page 5 NBC News/WSJ Survey Q.5 (cont’d) Very Positive John McCain September 2008+....... August 2008+ ............. July 2008+ .................. June 2008+ ................. April 2008+.................. March 24-25, 2008+ ... March 7-10, 2008+ ..... January 2008 .............. December 2007 ............ November 2007 .......... September 2007 ......... July 2007..................... April 2007.................... March 2007 ................. December 2006 .......... June 2006 ................... April 2006.................... August 2004+ ............. July 2004+ .................. May 2004+ .................. July 2002..................... April 2002.................... June 2001 ................... April 2001.................... January 2001 .............. July 2000+ .................. April 2000+.................. January 2000 .............. December 1999 .......... High May 2004+ .................. Low October 1999 .............. 9 25 14 13 11 11 14 15 14 10 8 9 7 11 12 13 11 12 18 19 20 12 18 15 17 16 18 16 14 12 20 Somewhat Positive 25 31 29 28 29 31 32 31 29 27 27 28 31 31 33 29 27 33 30 30 29 29 29 30 28 32 30 20 22 30 20 Neutral 16 21 26 25 27 26 23 26 26 31 26 25 27 25 22 29 28 26 30 26 27 25 26 25 29 25 27 27 24 26 22 Somewhat Negative 15 16 16 19 17 15 15 15 21 19 18 20 15 15 16 11 13 8 9 8 10 9 11 9 7 9 12 8 4 8 5 Very Negative 18 17 14 15 13 10 12 7 7 7 11 9 7 9 4 5 6 4 2 5 5 3 6 3 3 6 5 3 2 5 2 Don't Know Name/ Not Sure [149/156] 1 1 2 2 3 4 3 7 7 8 9 11 9 8 12 15 14 11 10 11 17 16 13 16 17 10 10 28 36 11 42 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 Study #6086--page 6 NBC News/WSJ Survey Q.5 (cont’d) Very Positive Barack Obama September 2008+....... August 2008+ ............. July 2008+ .................. June 2008+................. April 2008+.................. March 24-25, 2008+ ... March 7-10, 2008+ ..... January 2008.............. December 2007 .......... November 2007 .......... September 2007 ........ July 2007..................... April 2007.................... March 2007................. December 2006 .......... Oct. 28-30, 2006+ ...... High March 7-10, 2008+ ..... Low Oct. 28-30, 2006+ ...... Joe Biden September 2008+....... September 2007........... December 2006 ............ June 2004+................... Sarah Palin September 2008+....... 18 4 3 5 30 14 33 28 27 25 23 24 25 19 17 15 15 16 19 18 17 14 25 Somewhat Positive 20 22 21 23 23 25 26 30 29 28 27 26 26 19 18 17 26 17 22 13 14 11 17 Neutral 13 13 16 17 16 18 18 22 22 24 23 24 25 26 18 18 18 18 23 26 23 25 17 Somewhat Negative 12 17 11 11 17 16 13 11 14 12 13 12 8 11 7 5 13 5 13 11 10 6 10 Very Negative 20 19 23 22 20 16 15 14 12 12 12 10 6 6 6 6 15 6 12 11 6 4 17 Don't Know Name/ Not Sure [150/157] 2 1 2 2 1 1 3 4 6 9 10 12 16 20 34 40 3 40 [151/158] 12 35 44 49 [152/159] 9 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 Study #6086--page 7 NBC News/WSJ Survey Q.5 (cont’d) Very Positive Hillary Clinton September 2008+....... August 2008+............... June 2008+ .................. April 2008+................... March 24-25, 2008+ .... March 7-10, 2008+ ...... January 2008 ............... December 2007 ........... November 2007 ........... September 2007 .......... July 2007...................... June 2007 .................... March 2007 .................. December 2006 ........... April 2006 ..................... December 2004 ........... December 13, 2003..... July 2003...................... January 2001 ............... September 2000+........ January 2000 ............... October 1999 ............... High January 1999 ............... Low March 2001 .................. Cindy McCain September 2008+* ..... August 2008+............... July 2008+.................... March 2008+................ Michelle Obama September 2008+* ...... August 2008+............... July 2008+.................... March 2008+................ 23 17 18 20 17 22 24 22 19 20 20 18 16 21 19 24 21 16 27 19 21 21 35 16 19 12 9 6 21 19 17 14 Somewhat Positive 24 25 28 22 20 23 23 20 24 24 24 24 23 22 19 21 25 21 22 23 23 24 23 19 18 17 19 14 19 19 17 18 Neutral 15 16 14 14 15 11 11 13 12 13 16 15 17 17 19 14 12 20 13 16 18 13 16 15 32 39 40 37 23 28 27 32 Somewhat Negative 17 18 17 19 21 14 11 12 14 13 12 16 15 12 13 11 12 13 12 13 13 16 11 18 10 7 10 7 11 11 13 9 Very Negative 20 23 22 25 27 29 30 32 30 29 27 26 28 26 28 29 30 27 24 28 24 25 14 31 9 8 6 5 20 18 18 11 Don't Know Name/ Not Sure [153/160] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 [154] 12 17 16 31 [155] 6 5 8 16 * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 Study #6086--page 8 NBC News/WSJ Survey Q.5 (cont’d) Very Positive The Democratic Party September 2008+**........ August 2008+ .................. July 2008+ ...................... June 2008+..................... April 2008+ ..................... March 7-10, 2008+......... January 2008.................. November 2007.............. September 2007............. July 2007 ........................ June 2007....................... January 2007.................. October 28-30, 2006+.... July 2006 ........................ January 2006.................. September 2005............. May 2005 ........................ February 2005 ................ October 2004+ ............... September 2004+ .......... September 2003............. July 2003 ........................ December 2002.............. July 2002 ........................ July 2000+ ...................... High January 2000.................. Low July 2006 ........................ 24 17 15 16 17 20 22 12 8 15 12 13 14 7 11 11 12 14 17 16 11 11 13 10 19 20 7 Somewhat Positive 25 26 28 27 27 25 25 27 26 27 30 29 25 25 25 26 26 28 25 26 29 25 27 29 27 30 25 Neutral 17 21 18 24 22 18 19 24 27 21 22 26 25 27 28 29 26 28 22 20 22 25 27 25 24 23 27 Somewhat Negative 19 16 18 13 15 16 18 18 22 20 19 16 18 22 20 18 20 16 16 18 19 20 16 21 15 15 22 Very Negative 14 19 19 19 17 19 15 17 16 15 16 14 17 17 15 14 14 13 19 19 16 16 15 13 14 10 17 Don't Know Name/ Not Sure [161] 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 Study #6086--page 9 NBC News/WSJ Survey Q.5 (cont’d) Very Positive The Republican Party September 2008+**........ August 2008+ .................. July 2008+ ....................... June 2008+...................... April 2008+ ...................... March 7-10, 2008+ .......... January 2008................... November 2007............... September 2007.............. July 2007 ......................... June 2007 ........................ January 2007................... Oct 28-30, 2006+ ............ July 2006 ......................... January 2006................... September 2005.............. May 2005 ......................... February 2005 ................. October 2004+ ................ September 2004+ ........... September 2003.............. July 2003 ......................... December 2002............... July 2002 ......................... July 2000+ ....................... High December 2001............... Low June 2008+...................... 21 7 18 10 8 7 8 10 13 8 8 8 7 10 15 11 13 14 13 17 20 21 17 18 21 18 15 Somewhat Positive 22 25 23 21 19 24 21 24 23 25 21 23 20 22 24 23 27 27 24 22 26 30 26 25 28 36 21 Neutral 15 22 20 24 23 15 26 24 20 19 21 21 16 18 20 20 17 19 18 16 17 16 22 22 24 18 24 Somewhat Negative 18 19 22 22 22 21 19 20 27 23 23 23 20 21 20 19 19 18 15 18 19 16 15 17 16 13 22 Very Negative 25 23 26 25 26 28 18 22 20 23 26 21 28 25 22 22 22 18 22 22 18 16 14 14 15 9 25 Don't Know Name/ Not Sure [162] 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 2 4 2 3 1 ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 6. Study #6086--page 10 NBC News/WSJ Survey If the next election for president were held today, with John McCain and Sarah Palin as the Republican candidates, and Barack Obama and Joe Biden as the Democratic candidates, for whom would you vote? ? (IF “NOT SURE,” ASK:) Well, which way do you lean at this time? + John McCain and Sarah Palin .................... John McCain and Sarah Palin (lean) ......... Barack Obama and Joe Biden.................... Barack Obama and Joe Biden (lean)......... Depends (VOL) ......................................... Neither/other (VOL)................................... Not sure ..................................................... 45 1 46 1 2 2 3 [163-164] CONTINUE Skip to Q.8 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. John McCain ....................................... Barack Obama.................................... Depends (VOL)................................. Neither/other (VOL) .......................... Not sure............................................. 8/08+ 42 45 1 4 8 7/08+ 41 47 2 4 6 6/08+ 41 47 2 4 6 4/08+ 43 46 1 5 5 3/2425/08+ 42 44 3 4 7 3/710/08+ 44 47 1 3 5 1/08+ 43 41 4 5 7 4/07 39 45 1 5 10 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO MAKE A CHOICE IN Q.6a OR Q.6b.) 7a. Would you definitely vote for (TICKET CHOSEN IN Q.6a/Q.6b), probably vote for (TICKET CHOSEN IN Q.6a/Q.6b) but are still thinking about it, or are you just leaning toward voting for (TICKET CHOSEN IN Q.6a/Q.6b)? McCain-Palin Voters 8/08+ 7/08+ 6/08+ 74 75 68 14 12 16 12 13 16 Obama-Biden Voters 8/08+ 7/08+ 6/08+ 76 70 73 14 15 16 10 15 11 - Definitely vote for candidate ........................ Probably vote for candidate ......................... Just leaning toward voting for candidate .... Not sure ...................................................... 9/08+ 79 11 10 - 9/08+ 78 16 6 - [168] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO MAKE A CHOICE IN Q.6a OR Q.6b.) 7b. When it comes to your vote for (McCAIN/OBAMA) would you say that you are excited to be voting for him, you are satisfied to be voting for him, or you are voting for him as the lesser of two evils? McCain Voters 9/08+ 8/08+ 7/08+ 34 12 14 44 46 42 22 41 43 1 1 Obama Voters 9/08+ 8/08+ 7/08+ 55 46 44 33 36 33 12 18 22 1 Excited ................................................ Satisfied ............................................. Lesser of two evils ............................. Not sure ............................................ [169] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 8. Study #6086--page 11 NBC News/WSJ Survey I'm going to read you several factors that could be important to someone when deciding for whom to vote for president. Please tell me which one or two of these factors will be most important to you personally in deciding how to vote. + THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Positions on domestic issues and the economy...................... Stance and positions on foreign policy and defense issues ... Ability to bring real change ....................................................... Experience and judgment to make the right decisions ........... Strength and leadership qualities ............................................. Positions on values issues such as abortion and gay rights... Personal qualities and values ................................................... Their selection of a vice presidential running mate ................. Not sure ................................................................................... + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 41 26 26 24 20 15 11 5 2 [170] > Q.9a AND Q.9b ARE ROTATED. 9a. Does Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden as his vice presidential running mate make you more likely to vote for Barack Obama for president, less likely to vote for him, or does it not make a difference to you either way? + More likely to vote for Obama ........... Less likely to vote for Obama............ Makes no difference either way ........ Not sure ............................................ 24 16 58 2 [171] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 9b. Does John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate make you more likely to vote for John McCain for president, less likely to vote for him, or does it not make a difference to you either way? + More likely to vote for McCain........... Less likely to vote for McCain ........... Makes no difference either way ........ Not sure ............................................ 34 25 40 1 [172] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 10. Did you vote in the Democratic PRIMARY for president in your state? (IF “YES,” ASK:) For whom did you vote in the primary––Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or someone else? + Yes, Voted In The Democratic Primary Voted for Barack Obama............................................. Voted for Hillary Clinton .............................................. Voted for someone else .............................................. No, Did NOT Vote In Democratic Primary................ Not Sure .................................................................... + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 22 19 4 53 2 [173-174] HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 11. Would you like to see Hillary Clinton as president some day, or not? Would like to see Hillary Clinton as president some day.......... Would not like to see Hillary Clinton as president some day ... Not sure ..................................................................................... + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. Study #6086--page 12 NBC News/WSJ Survey 9/08+ 42 48 10 8/08+ 43 49 8 [175] 12. Whether or not you plan to vote for him, if (READ ITEM) were to become the next president, how comfortable are you with him as president––very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not really comfortable, or not at all comfortable? + Comfortable Very Barack Obama September 2008+ ............................ August 2008+ ................................... John McCain September 2008+ ............................ August 2008+ ................................... 26 18 31 37 17 22 24 22 2 1 30 26 26 29 16 16 27 28 1 1 [177] Fairly Not Really Not At All Not Sure [176] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 13. Whether or not you plan to vote for (him/her), if (READ ITEM) were to become the next vice president, how comfortable are you with (him/her) as vice president––very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not really comfortable, or not at all comfortable? + Comfortable Very 27 26 Fairly 27 33 Not Really 12 14 Not At All 29 19 Not Sure 5 8 Sarah Palin ......................................... Joe Biden............................................ [178] [179] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 14. How much confidence would you have in (READ ITEM) as commander-in-chief––a great deal, quite a bit, just some, or very little? Confidence A Great Deal John McCain September 2008+ ............................ August 2008+ ................................... Barack Obama September 2008+ ............................ August 2008+ ................................... 23 19 19 20 20 21 36 39 2 1 30 26 23 24 23 23 23 25 1 2 [208] Quite A Bit Just Some Very Little Not Sure [180] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 Study #6086--page 13 NBC News/WSJ Survey 15. How likely do you think it is that (READ ITEM) will bring real change and direction to the country--very likely, fairly likely, just somewhat likely, or not that likely? Likely To Bring Real Change/Direction Very John McCain September 2008+ ...................... June 2008+................................. Barack Obama September 2008+ ...................... June 2008+................................. 30 29 22 19 21 28 24 23 3 1 15 11 20 10 23 35 41 42 1 2 [210] Fairly Just Somewhat Not That Not Sure [209] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 16. NOT thinking about any specific candidates, I'm going to list several of types of people who might serve as president or vice president. For each one, please tell me whether that type of candidate is someone you would (a) be enthusiastic about, (b) be comfortable with, (c) have some reservations about, or (d) be very uncomfortable with. THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY ENTHUSIASTIC (A) Enthusiastic A woman September 2008+............................. January 2008.................................... December 2006................................ An African American September 2008+............................. January 2008.................................... December 2006................................ A person over age 70 September 2008+............................. December 2006................................ 20 20 15 6 3 21 25 21 (B) Comfortable 64 51 59 67 61 68 43 30 (C) Have Some Reservations 9 15 8 8 13 8 31 37 (D) Very Uncomfortable 3 7 8 2 4 4 18 29 Not Sure [213] 3 2 4 [211] 3 2 5 [212] 2 1 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. Q.17a AND Q.17b ARE ROTATED. 17a. Has what you have you seen, read, or heard in the past couple weeks about John McCain and his campaign for president given you a more favorable impression of him or a less favorable impression of him? If you have not seen, read, or heard anything in the past couple of weeks please just say so. 9/08+ Yes, Have Seen/Heard/Read Something More favorable ...................................................... Less favorable ....................................................... Has made no difference (VOL)............................. No, Have Not Seen/Heard/Read Anything ......... Not Sure................................................................ + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 8/08+ [214] 27 32 25 16 - 40 33 22 4 1 HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 17b. Study #6086--page 14 NBC News/WSJ Survey Has what you have you seen, read, or heard in the past couple weeks about Barack Obama and his campaign for president given you a more favorable impression of him or a less favorable impression of him? If you have not seen, read, or heard anything in the past couple of weeks please just say so. 9/08+ Yes, Have Seen/Heard/Read Something More favorable ...................................................... Less favorable ....................................................... Has made no difference (VOL)............................. No, Have Not Seen/Heard/Read Anything ......... Not Sure................................................................ + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 8/08+ [215] 30 34 23 12 1 36 27 30 5 2 18. For each of the following candidates, please tell me whether that person has a background and set of values that you can identify with, or whether he does NOT have a background and set of values that you can identify with. Does NOT Have Background/ Set Of Values I Identify With 36 33 34 37 35 32 40 42 43 42 46 39 Has Background/ Set Of Values I Identify With John McCain September 2008+ ............................ August 2008+ ................................... July 2008+ ........................................ June 2008+....................................... April 2008+ ....................................... March 24-25, 2008+......................... Barack Obama September 2008+ ............................ August 2008+ ................................... July 2008+ ........................................ June 2008+....................................... April 2008+ ....................................... March 24-25, 2008+......................... 59 60 58 55 54 57 53 50 47 50 45 50 Not Sure [216] 5 7 8 8 11 11 [217] 7 8 10 8 9 11 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 18b. For each of the following candidates, please tell me whether that person has a background and set of values that you can identify with, or whether (he/she) does NOT have a background and set of values that you can identify with. + Does NOT Have Background/ Set Of Values I Identify With 30 31 Joe Biden............................................ Sarah Palin ......................................... Has Background/ Set Of Values I Identify With 46 52 Not Sure 24 17 [218] [219] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 Study #6086--page 15 NBC News/WSJ Survey 19. Now I'd like you to compare Barack Obama and John McCain on a few qualities that people might look for in a president. For each one, please tell me whether you think that Barack Obama would be better or John McCain would be better on that item. If you think that both would be equally good or that neither would be good on a particular item, just say so. Who do you think would be better when it comes to (READ ITEM)––Barack Obama or John McCain, or do you think that both would be equally good or neither would be good? THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY BARACK OBAMA BETTER Barack Obama Better Being easygoing and likable September 2008+ **........................................ July 2008+ ....................................................... Offering hope and optimism for the future September 2008+ * ......................................... July 2008+ ....................................................... Improving America's standing in the world September 2008+ **........................................ July 2008+ ....................................................... Being compassionate enough to understand average people September 2008+ * ......................................... July 2008+ ....................................................... Having the right temperament to be president September 2008+ **........................................ Being consistent and standing up for his beliefs September 2008+ **........................................ July 2008+ ....................................................... Being honest and straightforward September 2008+ * ......................................... July 2008+ ....................................................... Being a good commander-in-chief September 2008+ **........................................ July 2008+ ....................................................... Having the strong leadership qualities needed to be president September 2008+ * ......................................... July 2008+ ....................................................... Being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency September 2008+ * ......................................... July 2008+ ....................................................... 15 19 26 31 29 25 42 43 46 48 44 50 54 55 59 John McCain Better 15 15 27 19 Both Would Be Equally Good 24 20 18 17 Neither Would Be Good 2 4 4 7 Depends (VOL) 1 1 Not Sure [226] 3 2 [221] 1 2 [229] 32 30 11 14 5 7 1 1 3 4 [222] 28 22 23 21 5 10 - 1 1 [227] 30 21 2 1 4 [228] 34 30 32 29 41 38 38 33 51 53 20 21 20 20 14 14 3 8 9 15 2 4 1 1 1 1 1 3 [223] 1 2 [225] 3 3 [224] 48 42 23 19 2 7 - 1 1 [220] 54 53 25 19 4 7 1 - 1 2 * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 Study #6086--page 16 NBC News/WSJ Survey 20. As you think about the presidential race and the direction in which the next president will take the country, who do you think would be the safer choice for president ––John McCain or Barack Obama? John McCain ...................................... Barack Obama ................................... Both (VOL) ....................................... Depends (VOL) ................................ Neither (VOL) ................................... Not sure ............................................ 9/08+* 48 43 1 2 2 4 7/08+ 46 41 1 NA 5 7 [230] * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 21. As you think about the presidential race and the direction in which the next president will take the country, who do you think would be the riskier choice for president ––John McCain or Barack Obama? John McCain....................................... Barack Obama.................................... Both equally (VOL)........................... Depends (VOL)................................. Neither (VOL) ................................... Not sure ............................................ 9/08+** 41 48 5 2 1 3 8/08+ 37 51 5 NA 1 6 7/08+ 35 55 3 NA 1 6 [231] ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 22a. In thinking about John McCain as president, do you feel that his direction, agenda, and policies would be mostly different from George W. Bush or mostly the same as George W. Bush? + * Mostly different from George W. Bush ....... Mostly the same as George W. Bush......... Not sure ..................................................... 35 58 7 [232] * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 22b. Please tell me how closely you believe John McCain would follow and support George W. Bush's programs and policies if elected president––very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all. Very closely ........................................ Somewhat closely .............................. Not too closely.................................... Not closely at all ................................. Not sure ............................................ 9/08+** 37 37 17 7 2 8/08+ 33 44 18 4 1 7/08+ 32 45 16 5 2 6/08+ 30 46 16 6 2 3/08+ 29 48 13 6 4 [233] ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 23. Study #6086--page 17 NBC News/WSJ Survey Which comes closest to your view on abortion--abortion should always be legal, should be legal most of the time, should be made illegal except in cases of rape, incest and to save the mother's life, or abortion should be made illegal without any exceptions? + 9/08+ 25 24 37 10 4 11/071 25 15 40 13 7 4/06 27 19 41 10 3 1/05 24 19 41 12 4 6/04 29 12 45 12 2 11/03 29 14 41 13 3 1/03 27 17 40 14 2 [234] Always legal ........................................ Legal most of the time ........................ Illegal, with exceptions ....................... Illegal without any exceptions ............ Not sure............................................. + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 1 Comparative data comes from surveys conducted by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg. 24. Of the four candidates running for president and vice president, with which one would you most like to have dinner? + THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Barack Obama ................................... Sarah Palin ......................................... John McCain ...................................... Joe Biden............................................ None (VOL) ...................................... Not sure ............................................ 40 33 15 7 3 2 [235] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. FACTUALS: Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only. F1. Will this year be the first time you have ever voted in a presidential election? + Yes, first time ..................................... No, not first time ................................. Not sure ............................................ 9 91 [236] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. F2. Are you currently employed? (IF "CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) What type of work do you do? (IF "NOT CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) Are you a student, a homemaker, retired, or unemployed and looking for work? + Currently Employed Professional, manager .............................. White-collar worker.................................... Blue-collar worker...................................... Farmer, rancher......................................... Not Currently Employed Student ....................................................... Homemaker ............................................... Retired........................................................ Unemployed, looking for work .................. Other .......................................................... Not sure...................................................... 27 22 13 4 6 22 4 2 [237-238] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 Study #6086--page 18 NBC News/WSJ Survey F3. What is the last grade that you completed in school? + Grade school .............................................................. Some high school....................................................... High school graduate ................................................. Some college, no degree ........................................... Vocational training/2-year college ............................. 4-year college/bachelor's degree .............................. Some postgraduate work, no degree ........................ 2-3 years postgraduate work/master's degree ......... Doctoral/law degree ................................................... Not sure/refused....................................................... + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 1 3 25 15 13 25 2 12 3 1 [245-246] F4. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? + Strong Democrat ................................ Not very strong Democrat ................. Independent/lean Democrat .............. Strictly independent ........................... Independent/lean Republican ........... Not very strong Republican ............... Strong Republican ............................. Other (VOL)...................................... Not sure ............................................ 25 6 13 15 12 8 16 3 2 [247] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. F5. Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) Do you consider yourself to be very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? + Very liberal ......................................... Somewhat liberal ............................... Moderate ............................................ Somewhat conservative .................... Very conservative .............................. Not sure ............................................ 10 16 35 20 14 5 [248] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. F6a. What is your religion? + Protestant (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Methodist, Episcopal, Presbyterian, and other Christians) ......................................... Catholic ..................................................................................... Jewish ....................................................................................... Muslim ....................................................................................... Mormon/LDS/Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints .... Other ........................................................................................ None......................................................................................... Not sure/refused ..................................................................... + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 54 23 3 1 1 6 10 2 CONTINUE Skip to Conclusion CONTINUE [249] HART/NEWHOUSE September 2008 Study #6086--page 19 NBC News/WSJ Survey (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY PROTESTANT, OTHER, NONE, OR NOT SURE IN Q.F6a.) F6b. Would you describe yourself as either a fundamentalist or an evangelical Christian, or would you not describe yourself that way? + Fundamentalist/evangelical ............................. Neither fundamentalist nor evangelical ........... Not sure .......................................................... Catholic/Jewish/Muslim/Mormon (Q.F6a) ........ 20 45 7 28 [250] + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll was based on a cross section of 807 registered voters, plus an oversample of 53 interviews among voters who only use a cell phone, conducted Sept. 6-8 by the polling organizations of Peter Hart and Neil Newhouse. The national sample was drawn in the following manner: 350 geographic points were randomly selected proportionate to the population of each region and, within each region, by size of place. The cell phone sample was drawn from a list of cell phone users nationally, and respondents were screened to ensure that their cell phone is their only phone. Individuals were selected by a method that gave all telephone numbers, listed and unlisted, an equal chance of being included. One registered voter, 18 years or older, was selected from each household by a procedure to provide a balance of respondents by sex. The data’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points; sample tolerances for subgroups are larger.