Meeting the MDGs in Africa

Meeting the MDGs in Africa “A question of unrelenting concern rather than despair” -Barcelona Development Agenda Meeting the MDGs in Africa Context advent of MDGs and Africa’s commitment coincided with a transition period from structural adjustment to PRSPs. are relevant (sets benchmarks); necessary (MDGs as ends but also means); and urgent (time-bound targets) for Africa, given the low initial human development for most African countries The key MDGs  The point lies in the range of issues that MDGs raise, in terms of the fundamental development problem the continent faces today and the necessary policy interventions to address this problem MDGs at a glance: levels and trends Goals and Targets G1 Poverty T.1 Halve poverty T.2 Reduce hunger by half G2 Primary Education T.3 Achieve Universal Primary Education G3 Gender Equality met Progress, but lagging On track On track, minimal change Not on track Not on track, minimal change North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa T.4.1 Equal Girls’ enrolment in primary school T.4.2 Equal Girls’ enrolment in secondary school T.4.3 Literacy parity between young men and women T.4.4 Women’s representation in national parliament G4 Child mortality T.5.1 Reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds T.5.2 Measles immunization (85% of population at risk) met Met Lagging, likely to achieve Progress but lagging, unlikely to achieve Progress, likely to achieve target Not on track, no change Lagging, unlikely to achieve target Progress but unlikely to achieve target met met Not on track, minimal change Not on track, minimal change CONTD MDGs at a glance: Levels and trends Goals and Targets G5 Improve maternal mortality T.6 Reduce maternal mortality by two thirds On track, likely to achieve goal Lagging, unlikely to achieve target Progress but unlikely to achieve target Not likely to achieve target, regressive trend Not likely to achieve target, regressive trend On track, likely to meet target Progress, but unlikely to achieve target Lagging, unlikely to meet target Not likely to achieve target, minimal change North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa G6 HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases T.7 Halt and reverse spread of HIV/AIDS T.8 Halt and reverse spread of malaria G7 Environmental Sustainability T.9 Reverse loss of forest T.10.1 Halve proportion without clean water in urban areas T.10.2 Halve proportion without clean water in rural areas T.11.1 Halve proportion without sanitation in urban areas T.11.2 Halve proportion without sanitation in rural areas N/A met On target On track Progress but lagging Threat of increase Threat of increase African sub-regions composition Regions in Africa North Africa: Countries Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia, Sudan Sub-Saharan Africa East Africa Burundi, Comoros, DRC, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda. West Africa: Burkina Faso, Benin, Cape Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo Central Africa Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Central African Republic, San Tome &Principe Southern Africa Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe Goals Sub-regions likely to achieve goals/ targets Countries in SSA that are likely to achieve the targets Poverty: Burkina Faso, Lesotho, Botswana, Cameroon, Gambia, Mauritania . Child Malnutrition: Botswana, Chad, Gambia Overall undernourishment: Ghana, Malawi and Angola. Both net enrollment and completion rate: Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Botswana, Cape Verde, Seychelles, Togo, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Namibia, south Africa, Gabon and Sao Tom. & Princ. Primary level education: Botswana, Lesotho, Mauritius, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe. Secondary level: Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Botswana, Lesotho, and Namibia Mauritius, Seychelles, Cape Verde and North African countries. North African countries, Botswana, Cape Verde and Mauritius HIV/AIDS: Botswana, Zimbabwe and Uganda. Malaria: Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Comoros, Benin, and Rwanda Central Africa, Cameroon, and Kenya. Tuberculosis: South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Angola, Gabon, Gambia and Madagascar and North African countries in all the three case (HIV/AIDS, Malaria, and Tuberculosis) Sustainable development (forest area): North African countries, Swaziland, the Gambia, and Cape Verde. Access to safe drinking water (rural): Egypt, Mauritius, Algeria, Botswana, Burundi, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Ghana and Namibia. Access to sanitation (urban): Libya, Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Ghana, and Mauritius. Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Halving poverty- North Africa except Sudan and Mauritania Child Malnutrition-North Africa Overall undernourishment-North Africa except Sudan and Mauritania North Africa except Sudan and Mauritania Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality Central Africa West Africa North Africa A part of Southern Africa( 50%) North Africa Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Goal 5: Improve maternal mortality Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other diseases North Africa •Most African countries are lagging behind • Data aggregation hides country and subregional specificties (example Uganda will likely reach Goal 1 but not other goals) •For Africa the MDGs are minimum benchmarks, given the low initial level of human development North African :Tuberculosis Goal 7: Ensure Environmental sustainability All regions Access to safe drinking water urban Meeting the MDGs in Africa Challenges • Synergies across MDGs facilitate the choice of policy instruments • Goal 1 – eliminating extreme poverty and hunger - likely supersedes the others, however, given that its attainment generally requires reaching the other goals • Slow GDP growth on the continent (2% on average in the 90s) has made reaching the MDGs difficult. There is an annual growth deficit of over 4%, for example, in order to reach MDG1 •Thus the emphasis on (pro-poor) economic growth in Africa is crucial to achieving Goal 1 •Above all, however, attaining the MDGs depends crucially on converting commitments to actions on the part of both donors and African countries Africa and global poverty headcount figures Poverty Head count ratio over the period 1981-2001 by region 80 60 40 20 0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2001 East Asia and Pacific East Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean M iddle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa •Africa (at the aggregate level) has the highest headcount ratio of all regions •Its change over time has been minimal Goal 1 by Sub-region Africa Region Per capita Monthly Exp. (1985 PPP) Poverty 1999 (headcount ratio) Gini Coefficient (%)-Mid 1990s Required Regional GDP Growth Rate (%) Actual Average Real GDP Growth rate (%), 1999-2003 North 122 1.98 59.56 37 5.6 4.2 West 53 43 7.61 3.2 •Slow economic growth on the continent (4% growth gap on average) has made reaching MDG 1 very difficult •Regional differences point towards specificity in pro-poor growth strategies Central 77 38.86 42.3 6.7 4.4 East 38 37.01 43.4 8.12 3.5 Southern 90 28.17 47.4 6.2 2.7 Total Africa 76 37 44 6.79 3.6 (SSA) 65 40.9 43 7.16 3.1 Goal 1 : Some positive signs Changes in the Poverty Headcount Ratio for Selected African Countries: 1990-2001 80 60 40 20 0 Bo tsw an Bu a rk ina Fa so Ca m er o on Ga mb ia so tho au rit a nia 1990 2001 Headcount ratio (%) •Chart shows SSA countries likely to halve poverty by 2015 given present rates Le M Meeting the MDGs in Africa Policy directions I • High levels of pro-poor growth and decreases in income inequality must be essential characteristics of any poverty reduction strategy in Africa • The relative weight of growth and equity is very much country-specific. In some countries, dealing with income distribution issues can be complex, and even costly. In others, accelerating growth alone may not help in meeting MDG target (examples Namibia should emphasize distribution, Ethiopia growth) • The pace of economic growth as well as the state of income distribution in Africa are determined by structural factors • These include institutional factors giving rise to good governance, as well as geography and economic structures • Increasing agricultural productivity, managing population growth which to an extent derails poverty reduction and addressing spatial distribution of poverty within African economies are crucial policy areas. These elements jointly contribute to the overall poverty trap that is now a feature of most African countries Meeting the MDGs in Africa Policy directions II Sub-Saharan Africa depends on three components for a successful drive to reach the MDGs namely: commitment, contextualization, and institutional capacity. Commitment Pledges made and the mutual accountability of such pledges are important. In this respect a joint study by ECA/OECD to ensure greater aid effectiveness is being undertaken Contextualization Countries have started to integrate the MDGs into their national development frameworks (PRSPs) and tailoring them into national circumstances to achieve pro-poor growth (e.g., Rwanda,Tanzania, Senegal, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia) Harmonizing a more comprehensive socio-economic development programme (beyond current PRSPs) with on-going macroeconomic programmes Contd Meeting the MDGs in Africa Policy directions Institutional Capacity: •Building statistical capacity for effective monitoring of development results •Critical is the development of a capable state that: (1) maintains peace and security; (2) creates a conducive environment for the private sector; and (3) delivers public goods efficiently •Regional cooperation is also crucial •And so is the support of the international community