Driver Behavior in the Global Futures Scenarios
Scenario: Inclusive Globalization Population
Global population increases by 1 billion people. Pressures from population growth mitigated by high average annual economic growth. Urbanization manageable in many countries, but some cities with rapid population growth become politically unstable. High migration beneficial for sending and receiving countries, although controversial in Europe and Japan.
Scenario: Pernicious Globalization
Additional 1 billion people prove burdensome, since economic stagnation and high unemployment prevent absorption of new job market entrants or migrants. Inadequate urban infrastructure and social services in most cities create conditions ripe for instability and insurgency. South–North migration becomes major source of tension, spurring US and Europe to disengage from developing countries. Population growth will contribute to scarcities of arable land and fresh water, exacerbated by inappropriate policies of subsidy and protectionism. Resource scarcities, particularly that of fresh water, will be major problems in both emerging market and developing countries, reducing agricultural production and spurring migration to cities.
Scenario: Regional Competition
Additional 1 billion people prove burdensome for many developing countries, due to slow economic growth and regional protectionism. Cities in many developing countries become unstable, due to growing economic disparities, inadequate infrastructure and services, and weak governance: increasing cross-border migration.
Scenario: Post-Polar World
Additional 1 billion people destabilizing some countries, such as Indonesia, and make some rapidly growing cities ungovernable. Population dynamics create opportunities for China and emerging market countries of Latin America and contribute to reordering of great-power relationships in Asia.
Resources
Population increases and robust economic growth will stress ecosystems, resulting in soil degradation, CO2 pollution, deforestation and loss of species, especially in areas of rapid urbanization. Advanced developing countries largely resolve resource problems, although the poorest developing countries will suffer resource scarcities. In particular, water scarcities will worsen in South Asia, northern China, Middle East, and Africa.
Population growth, economic pressures, and policy failures create resource scarcities, especially in poor countries and highly populated emerging markets. International environmental collaboration weakens, and local conflicts over water spur cross-border migration.
Resource trends similar to those in regional competition scenario.
Technology
Conditions will be auspicious for rapid innovation, diffusion and implementation of IT, biotechnology, and smart materials. IT will promote productivity gains and higher levels of non-inflationary growth for many countries. Some countries will fall further behind because they lack sufficient education levels, infrastructure, and regulatory systems.
Innovation and diffusion will be slow, due to economic stagnation and political uncertainties. The destabilizing effects of technology will predominate: WMD proliferates; IT empowers terrorists and criminals. Benefits of technology will be realized by only a few rich countries, while most countries will fall further behind. A US downturn leads to economic stagnation. Global consensus supporting market reforms will erode, undermining the "American economic model," making US especially vulnerable and leading US to disengage from global involvement. Emerging markets, as well as most developing countries, are hard hit by economic stagnation.
Technology advances and commercializes rapidly, but regional protectionism reduces economies of scale and promotes trade barriers. Conflicts over market openings for high technology sectors break out. Developing countries unable to compete in global economy fall into technological backwardness.
Widespread regional protectionism and conflicts over access to high technology develop. Regional and great-power relations in Asia become more contentious. Demand for militarily-relevant technologies in Asia increases.
Economy
US global leadership and economic power, further liberalization of trade, broad acceptance of market reforms, rapid diffusion of IT, and absence of great-power conflict will generate on average 4% annual global economic growth. Emerging markets—China, India, Brazil—and many developing countries will benefit. Some states in Africa, the Middle East, Andean region, Central Asia, and the Caucasus will lag.
Growth is robust, but diminished by effects of regionalism and protectionism. US maintains advantage over Europe and Japan through ability to absorb foreign workers. Emerging markets are targets of developed country mercantilist competition. Other developing countries are neglected by rich countries and atrophied global institutions.
Economic trends similar to those in regional competition scenario.
Identity and Governance
Ethnic heterogeneity challenges cohesion of some states, migrant workers create chronic tensions in ethnically homogeneous Europe and East Asia, and communal tensions and violence increase in developing countries with poor governance. In many states benefiting from rapid economic growth and spread of IT, functions of governance will diffuse widely from national governments to local governments and partnerships with business firms, non-profits. Some states’ capacity to govern will weaken, and especially in the Andean region, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central and South Asia.
Ethnic/religious identities sharpen in many heterogeneous states. Communal tensions and violence increase in Africa, Central and South Asia, and parts of Middle East. Political Islam grows. Likelihood of terrorism against targets linked to globalization and the US will increase, hastening Northern disengagement. Weakening of governing capacity at all levels among both developed and developing countries; China and Russia face territorial fragmentation.
Globalization, assertions of US "hegemony," and cultural changes challenge national identities, contributing to US-European and USAsian estrangement and increasing US engagement in Latin America. Labor mobility sharpens ethnic/religious identities in countries where immigrants cannot be absorbed. Communal pressures in developing countries increase, in some cases leading to internal communal conflicts. Mercantilist competition strengthens the state. A number of regional organizations are strengthened while global institutions weaken, due to inattention, preoccupation with domestic/regional issues, and EU/Japan resentment of US preeminence.
Globalization and cultural changes contribute to US–European estrangement and increase US engagement in Latin America. Traditional national identities and rivalries stoke intensified nationalism in Asia. Labor mobility sharpens ethnic/religious identities in countries where immigrants cannot be absorbed. Communal pressures increase in many developing countries, and conflicts persist in the Andean region, Indonesia, and elsewhere. Both mercantilist competition and a growing prospect of interstate conflict in Asia strengthen developed and emerging market states’ ability to command resources, invest in militarily-relevant technology, and control borders. Both global and regional intergovernmental institutions weaken.
Conflict
Absence of great power conflict. Conflict is minimal between and within developed and emerging market countries, due to economic prosperity and growing acceptance of democratic norms. Internal and cross-border conflicts persist in Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of Central, South, and Southeast Asia, and the Andean region due to lack of effective governance and countries’ inability to handle population growth, resources scarcities, ethnic tensions, and urbanization. Developed countries will allow many strategically remote conflicts to proceed without attempting to intervene.
Risk of regional conflict in Asia rises substantially. Serious questions arise concerning: • China’s territorial integrity. • India’s ability to govern. • Future of democracy in Russia. Frequency of internal and interstate conflicts increases, triggered by rising tensions in emerging and developing countries and reduced cooperation among developed countries. WMD restraints will erode, increasing risks of terrorism and regional aggression.
Increased regionalism results in conflict over markets, investment flows, and resources, further reducing international collaboration on terrorism, crime, cross-border conflicts, and WMD proliferation. WMD proliferates rapidly and dangerously.
As US concentrates on Western Hemisphere and downgrades its presence in Europe and Asia, China drives towards regional dominance, Japan rearms and the risk of great-power conflict increases as US contemplates reasserting influence in Asia. WMD proliferates rapidly and dangerously, particularly in Asia.
High levels of internal and cross-border conflicts persist in developing countries.
High levels of internal and cross-border conflicts persist in developing countries.
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