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					THE ETHANOL AS A BIO FUEL
      PROPELLER CLUB
       JUNE 1ST, 2006
               ETHANOL
         C2 H5 OH – Molecular Formula
Utilizations:
 Beverages
 Perfumes and Cosmetics
 Pharmaceutical
 Chemical Industry
 Solvents and Inks
 Food Industry
 Fuel
                     Raw Materials
Fermentation:                     Synthetic:
   Sugar cane                     Coal
   Corn                           Ethylene
   Wheat
   Cereals
   Sugar Beet
   Potatoes
   Tapioca
   Wine
   Cellulose
   Molasses (sugar cane, beet,
    HFCS, etc…)
                 Producing Countries
   Brazil                              Indonesia
   USA                                 South Africa
   Thailand                            Argentina
   China                               Guatemala
 EU (Spain, France, Italy,             Costa Rica
    Germany, Poland, among others)      Saudi Arabia
 Australia                             Russia
                 Supply / Demand

- World Production 40 MM m3 (all grades)
- Consumption (main countries)

  Brasil (16 MM m3) (mostly fuel)
  USA (16 MM m3) (mostly fuel)
  EU     (3 MM m3)
  Japan + Korea (0.7 MM m3) (mostly industrial)
  Others ( Thailand, China, Mexico, Philipines, etc...)
        Break Down of Utilization:
 Fuel (35 MM m3)
 ETBE, Gasohol and Ethanol cars + FFVs

Non fuel ( 5 MM m3)
 Beverages, Pharmaceutical Industry, Food
  Conservatives, Perfumes and Cosmetics, Solvents
  and Inks, Chemical Industry, Automotive Industry,
  etc..
            Energy Concerns

 Environmental (Kyoto protocol) + (MTBE Ban)
 Economical (Oil Prices)
 Strategical (Oil Reserves)
 Political (Dependence)
         Ethanol the ideal solution
 Renewable
 Reduces CO2 emissions
 Utilization as
  Raw Material for ETBE production
  Direct Blends on gasoline
  Fuel for ethanol cars
  Fuel for FFVs
 Generates jobs and brings social benefits
 Reduces dependence on crude
                     Bio Fuels Matrix
 Bio diesel
Blends of 5% into normal diesel oil (B5)
Direct utilization (new types-B100)
 ETBE
Blends of 10-15% on gasoline to avoid problems with water miscibility
  and also RVP
 Ethanol
Blends of 2 up to 20% on gasoline
Direct fuel on Ethanol cars (Brazil only)
Direct fuel on FFVs (Brazil, USA, Sweden)
                   EU Policy
 Directives for Bio Fuels
• 2% by Jan 1st 2005
• 5.75% by Jan 1st 2010

 Subsidies / Incentives
• Germany, UK, France, Sweden, Spain, Italy, Poland and
  Czeck Republic

 Mandatory Uses
• Germany, France, UK, Italy, Belgium and Netherlands
                   Other Countries
 USA (Energy Bill)
  7.5 mmm gals by 2012 (aprox 30 MM m3)
 Thailand
  Mandatory use for 720 M m3/year as from 2008
 Japan
  Under study-target 7% ETBE on 20% gasoline by 2010
 South America
  Various fuel Ethanol programs being implemented (Venezuela, Colombia, Peru,
  Argentina)
 South Africa
   Under study mandatory use of gasohol by 2008-2009
 Philipines
  Already testing some imports of Ethanol for gasohol blends
 China
  3 provinces Ethanol to gasoline
 India
  9 states utilizing 10% Ethanol blends
                   Future of the Trade
 Most of Production consumed domestically
 Exports likely to occur to countries which can not
  produce
 Potential Importers
   Japan
   Korea
   Some Central and South American Countries
   CBI ( as a bridge to U.S.)
   Some South East Asian Countries ( Thailand, Philipines, Malaysia)
   India
   China
   EU ( eventually)
         Supplying Countries (Exports)
• Brazil
   Largest expansion capacity
   Lowest production cost
   Good oportunity for foreign investments
   Adequate and competitive logistics
• USA
 Production growing fast due to Energy Bill
 Expansion Capacity at relative/competitive cost
 Available raw material

• Others such as China, India, Australia and South Africa will
    depend on development of their own programs
    Main Expected Routes
Brazil to Far East
Brazil to Caribbean
Brazil to Europe
U.S.A to Far East
U.S.A to Europe
            Main Loading Ports
 Brazil
 Paranaguá
 Santos
 São Sebastião
 Rio de Janeiro
 Maceió
 Suape
 U.S.A
 U.S Gulf Ports
          Main Discharging Ports
 EU                         Far East
 Rotterdam/Antwep             Ulsan
 French Med Ports             Yokohama
  (FOS/Laveras)                Dalian
 London (Thames River)        Manila
 Swedish Ports                Bangkok
  (Gottenburg, Stockholm,      India
  Malmo, Osnskoldvik)
                               Mumbai
                               Kandla
            Logistics (Terminals)
   Brazil
 Existing facilities to export 2.5 MM m3/year without any
  problem
 Pipelines can be used in addition to existing facilities
 Export capacity can triple without too much investment
 Logistics Agreements being made between Transpetro
  and Japanese Buyers
    Far East
 Japan needs infrastructure to receive Ethanol (not compatible with
  wet systems)
 Can receive ETBE without any problem
 Bio Diesel still not being focused on
 Korea/China/India for the moment only Gasohol blends under
  consideration
 Infrastructure (terminals) being built to receive Ethanol
 Oil Cos still resisting

    EU
   Same problems with wet systems
   Logistics not only affecting imports but also local production
   Specs issue driving Oil Industry in favor of ETBE and Bio Diesel
   Protection to local production will also be a sensitive factor
   Logistics without participation of Oil Cos will be rather difficult
           Logistics (Shipping)
 IMO 2 requirements for vegoil vessels will reduce
 tonnage availability as from Jan 1st, 2007 r
 Demand for tonnage shall substantially increase as
 from 2008 or what concerns Bio Fuels transportation
 Bio Diesel shall increase it’s participation in this
 market
 Control of Vessels or long term COAs will be a key
 issue to keep the competitivety and assurance of
 supply
 Construction of new vessels will be a must
                      Conclusion
- Bio Fuels is an unquestionable reality
- Inside the context, Ethanol is a key factor
   Renewable source of energy
   Environmentally friendly
   Strategic Alternative
   Social Benefits
   Different uses (ETBE, Gasohol, FFVs)
- Most emphasis in producing countries
- Some exceptions in the Far East
- Brazil as a logical supplier
   Lowest production cost
   Largest expansion capacity
   Adequate logistics
   Sugar cane plantations do not interfere with other cultures
Thank you

				
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