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Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight

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					    TECHNICAL REPORT SERIES


Pilot Project to Scope
the Establishment of a
European Foresight Academy




                                EUR 21406 EN




                   Institute for
                   Prospective
                   Technological Studies
          PILOT PROJECT TO SCOPE THE
         ESTABLISHMENT OF A EUROPEAN
              FORESIGHT ACADEMY


                MICHAEL KEENAN1, FABIANA SCAPOLO2




    (Based on a European Science and Technology Observatory Project)




                             November 2004




1
PREST –University of Manchester, UK
2
JRC-IPTS, Spain




Technical Report EUR 21406 EN
IPTS Technical Report Series, EUR 21406 EN

“Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy”



Authors:
Michael Keenan (PREST), Fabiana Scapolo (JRC-IPTS)




Seville, Spain, 2004


Published by:
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Joint Research Centre
IPTS- Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
W.T.C. Isla de la Cartuja s/n
E-41092 Seville, Spain
http:\\www.jrc.es

 ECSC-EEC-EAEC, Brussels • Luxembourg, 2004

The orientation and contents of this report cannot be taken as indicating the position of
the European Commission or its services. The European Commission retains the
copyright of this publication. Reproduction is authorised, except for commercial
purposes, if the source is mentioned. Neither the European Commission nor any person
acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of the
information in this report.

Printed in Spain
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




                                                           Table of contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................... 1
        Getting a measure of the demand for the EFA ..................................................................................... 1
        What of existing supply? ....................................................................................................................... 2
        Organising awareness-raising workshops ........................................................................................... 2
        Organising a methods training course ................................................................................................. 3
        Reaching out further.............................................................................................................................. 3
        Scenarios for a future EFA ................................................................................................................... 4
1.      INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................... 6

2.      DEMAND REVIEW ........................................................................................................................... 8
        2.1          Defining the Scope of the Review ........................................................................................... 8
        2.2          Survey of Candidate Countries............................................................................................. 10
        2.3          Survey of IRE/IRC Network members .................................................................................. 11
        2.4          Interviews with Senior National Decision Makers .............................................................. 13
        2.5          Interviews with National Technology Programme Officers ................................................ 17
        2.6          Interviews with JRC Research Managers ............................................................................ 21
        2.7          Survey of Existing Practitioners........................................................................................... 22
        2.8          Conclusions........................................................................................................................... 25
3.      SUPPLY REVIEW............................................................................................................................ 27
        3.1          Scope of the Supply Review .................................................................................................. 27
        3.2          Executive Education ............................................................................................................. 27
        3.3          University Curricula............................................................................................................. 31
        3.4          Conclusions........................................................................................................................... 33
4.      AWARENESS WORKSHOPS ........................................................................................................ 34
        4.1          IRC/IRE Network Foresight Awareness Workshop ............................................................. 34
        4.2          JRC Programme Managers Awareness Workshop.............................................................. 36
        4.3          Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 38
5.      REGIONAL FORESIGHT TRAINING COURSE ...................................................................... 40
        5.1          Preparation for the course ................................................................................................... 40
        5.2          Delivering the course............................................................................................................ 43
        5.3          Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 45
6.      THE ‘FORESIGHT READER’ AND EFA WEB SITE ............................................................... 47
        6.1          The Foresight Reader ........................................................................................................... 47
        6.2          www.jrc.es/projects/foresightacademy - EFA online .......................................................... 48
        6.3          Other promotional activities ................................................................................................ 49
        6.4          Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 50
7.      EUROPEAN FORESIGHT ACADEMY: FUTURE OPTIONS................................................. 51
        7.1          What have we learnt from this pilot study?.......................................................................... 51
        7.2          Content – what sorts of things could a future EFA do? ...................................................... 52
        7.3          Structure – how might a future EFA be configured?........................................................... 59
        7.4          Summary conclusions ........................................................................................................... 69
ANNEXE: SUPPORTING MATERIALS ............................................................................................... 70




European Commission JRC-IPTS                                                                                             The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




Executive Summary
This report provides an account of a pilot study carried out by ESTO to test the need for
and the viability of a cross-national capacity-building activity in the area of Foresight.
The study was carried out over a nine-month period by six ‘core’ partners, with a
further half dozen or so institutions providing support at specific times. It involved first
conducting a review of Foresight training supply and demand in a number of European
Union (EU) Member States and Candidate Countries. This was followed up with the
organisation of a Foresight training course and two awareness workshops, and the
preparation of a Foresight ‘Reader’. From the outset, the pilot study was given the
name “European Foresight Academy” (EFA), both to reflect its pedagogical nature and
to lend the project some authority and gravitas. Whether this name should be adopted
for a permanent and sustainable capacity building activity is an open question.
However, we recommend that any such activity be given a name that befits its
ambitions to develop and nurture Foresight capabilities in an enlarged Europe.


Getting a measure of the demand for the EFA
The project started with a review of demand for Foresight capacity-building activities
(Chapter 2). Five groups of actors were selected for the demand review, namely (1)
prospective Foresight exercise managers (with a focus upon Candidate Countries); (2)
IRE (Innovation Regions in Europe) network regional co-ordinators; (3) senior science
and technology policy decision makers; (4) research and technology programme
officers (e.g. from the EC’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), national research councils and
academies, etc.); and (5) existing professional Foresight practitioners. It was envisaged
that each of these would want different things from the EFA: for example, we
anticipated that senior decision makers would not be interested in learning about the
minutiae of running a Foresight exercise. Rather, they would be interested in knowing
how to interpret and use Foresight results. Likewise, existing practitioners would
obviously not be interested in knowing about the basics of Foresight, but would instead
expect to learn about the state-of-the-art from the EFA.

The various groups were contacted through e-mail surveys and telephone interviews,
with each research instrument tailored to the particular group being addressed. In all,
around 50 people agreed to be interviewed across 10 European countries, whilst around
50 people responded to the various questionnaire survey instruments. Generally
speaking, they were asked about how they could benefit from Foresight capacity-
building activities and how the EFA could be configured in such a way to meet those
needs.

The review indicated widespread support across the board for the establishment of the
EFA, with many suggestions made as to the activities it should engage in. These
included: awareness-raising workshops, directed primarily at policy makers; the
development of Foresight methods ‘toolbox’ training courses; training courses focused
upon state-of-the-art Foresight methods, including use of ICTs in Foresight; training in
the management and organisation of Foresight exercises; courses on how to use
(absorb) Foresight results for successful implementation outcomes; workshops where
organisations can discuss the implications of Foresight results for their own policy
areas, business sectors, etc.; courses for explicitly multiplying Foresight practice



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         1                     The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




through the training of trainers and teachers; the development of university courses,
ranging from individual modules embedded in other courses through to full Masters
programmes; and workshops where practitioners and theoreticians can meet to share
ideas and experiences.


What of existing supply?
The demand review was followed by a review of the existing supply in Foresight
training (Chapter 3). This supply review was necessarily focused upon open access
executive education and academic programmes. Other Foresight capacity-building
activities, such as coaching, are going on in Europe, but these are typically done by
consultancy firms and remain largely invisible and ad hoc. Only a small number of
regular and open executive and academic programmes were found, suggesting the need
for expansion if latent demand were to be awakened.


Organising awareness-raising workshops
Within the context of the objectives for this pilot study, we were committed from the
start to conducting at least one training course. Given the number of people who
highlighted the need for foresight awareness workshops, we decided that two of these
should be organised (see Chapter 4). We also organised a 3-day training course focused
on Foresight methods (see Chapter 5), which was sufficiently distinctive vis-à-vis
existing courses being offered elsewhere. This was targeted at prospective regional
Foresight practitioners, who had expressed a strong desire for methods training in their
survey responses.

Taking the two awareness workshops first, these focused upon two distinct groups –
regional development professionals in the IRC/IRE Network and JRC programme
managers. The objective for both workshops was to inform participants of what
Foresight is and how it could help them in their planning and decision-making. Two
sorts of presentations were therefore used: (1) general introductions to Foresight and (2)
illustrative examples of Foresight in action. A mix of speakers, both from within and
outside the project team, was engaged, bringing with them a wide diversity of views and
experiences. Each workshop lasted for 1.5 days, with speakers typically on hand for the
duration in order to answer questions.

Several lessons were learnt from these two workshops and a number of
recommendations have been made. On the positive side, a good mix of speakers, both
from within and outside the project team, worked very well, as did the content, which
was a mix of Foresight principles and case examples. As for improvements, more time
needed to be given to discussion and debate. Furthermore, more imaginative workshop
approaches, possibly using problem-based learning, gaming, and other participative
techniques commonly found in management training, might be used to good effect in
the future. On the whole, the IRC/IRE Network event was much more successful than
the workshop for JRC managers, the latter being poorly attended in an unsuitable
location. The former event also benefited greatly from collaboration with the IRC/IRE
Network secretariat, which already knew what it wanted and was in a position to muster
the interest of its community. The EFA should therefore consider limiting its




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         2                     The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




awareness-raising (and possibly its training) activities to those situations where an
“intermediary” body can share the risks of organising and delivering events.


Organising a methods training course
As the centrepiece of the pilot project, a three-day course was organised at Ispra in Italy
during May 2003 (Chapter 5). The course was focused on regional foresight, which
was considered by the project team to be an area of emerging importance with little
existing training provision. The objective of the course was to provide an intensive,
practically-oriented introduction to regional Foresight methods that would be useful for
those thinking about organising and managing Foresight activities in their own regions.
Accordingly, the course was targeted at the beginner-intermediary level. Interest was
overwhelming, with around sixty applications received for just thirty-five places. The
project team decided that the course should essentially be free, with just a nominal 95
euros fee charged to cover lunches, dinner and airport transfers. The experimental and
pilot status of the course meant that it would be difficult to charge a fee.

The EFA project team delivered the majority of sessions, with just a few outside
speakers brought in on particular topics. Inevitably, some presentations were better
than others. There were probably too many presentations given the relatively short
duration of the course, leaving insufficient time for practical work. Nevertheless,
evaluation ratings by participants ranged between “good” to “excellent” on all aspects
of the course. Participants were clearly motivated to learn and brought much energy
and enthusiasm with them to the course. The beautiful surroundings and well-organised
extra-curricular activities, neither of which should be underestimated, also contributed
to a good and open atmosphere.

As for lessons and recommendations for the future, these are numerous. They include
the need for: shorter, snappier presentations and the imaginative use of ICTs, where
some speakers can be “beamed in” remotely using video-conference facilities; better
preparation of the practical sessions; more sophisticated audience targeting, which
should be aided by offering a suite of courses in the future; further courses dedicated to
particular methods; and acknowledgement of the limitations of any training courses,
where what is really needed is coaching and/or consultancy. Furthermore, the issue of
course fees needs to be studied more closely to avoid market distortion.


Reaching out further
The project also saw the preparation of a ‘Foresight Reader’, which was originally
intended as a training course textbook (Chapter 6). However, this idea was revised to
produce instead a publication that was less tied to the immediate EFA course offerings
and more broadly appealing. As some good and useful Foresight guides already exist, it
was decided that the EFA Reader should be a montage of excerpts and summaries of
existing issues and experiences in Foresight. It covers the relevance of Foresight, as
well as its historical and epistemological foundations, before providing an account of
contemporary Foresight practice. It also includes a chapter on methods used in
Foresight, followed by a chapter on practical lessons for managing and organising
Foresight processes. The use and outcomes of Foresight is then discussed, before some
illustrative examples of Foresight in Action are presented.



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         3                     The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




As well as the Reader, an EFA website was constructed to reach out beyond those
immediately involved in the activities of the pilot study. It was developed primarily as
a tool for making available information on forthcoming events, but was also utilised for
disseminating presentations delivered at EFA events and for linking to other Foresight
training provision.


Scenarios for a future EFA
In light of the various reviews and training workshop experiences, the possibilities for
establishing a sustainable European Foresight Academy on a permanent basis are
considered (Chapter 7). To begin with, several principles are set out that should inform
any attempts to establish a permanent EFA. These include: the need for lean and non-
bureaucratic operation; the avoidance of duplication and/or displacement of existing
training or awareness-raising activities (especially those that are already offered on a
commercial basis); an openness to new ideas and new people; the need for a distributed
Academy, with its nodes spread across all parts of the EU28; and, finally, the need for a
financially sustainable EFA with multiple sources of funding, both public and private.

The possible activities of a future EFA are also discussed. These include: short courses
on methods and exercise organisation; awareness-raising activities (e.g. workshops,
newsletters, etc.); embedding Foresight into institutional practices; methodology
development; provision of a nucleus of reference (e.g. by giving guidance on methods
and approaches, by providing case studies of good practice, by setting quality standards,
and by producing training materials that could be widely disseminated and deployed
across Europe); and the establishment of discussion forums for mutual learning between
Foresight users and practitioners.

These are the possible activities for a permanent EFA to be engaged in, but it is left to
the reader to make up her/his own mind as to their relative merit. To help the reader in
this task, five scenarios are presented that summarise different, yet plausible, structures
for the EFA. The scenarios, which have a relatively short three-year time horizon, are
built around four dimensions, namely (i) the EFA’s breadth of remit, (ii) the level of
active involvement of the wider Foresight community in its day-to-day operation, (iii)
its mode of operation, and (iv) its level and sources of funding.

The first scenario, “The Status Quo”, assumes that no EFA or anything like it is
established. It therefore describes a possible future where existing capacity-building
provision slowly evolves from its current state. The second scenario, “The Gazette”,
sees the EFA established and adding value to existing capacity-building provision. But
this is a simple EFA, confined largely to being little more than an online information-
sharing space. In the third scenario, “The Orchestrator”, again the EFA is focused upon
adding value to existing provision, but is far more active in co-ordinating and
strengthening these activities. For example, it is involved in cataloguing a Foresight
nucleus of reference that serves a European “community” of trainers and practitioners.
It also establishes learning partnerships between existing and aspirant training
providers. In the fourth scenario, “The Player”, the EFA does little, if any, coordination
of existing provision, but instead seeks to run its own training courses and capacity-
building activities. Significantly, these activities seek to add value to existing capacity-
building provision rather than displace it. Thus, the EFA is focused upon filling the


European Commission JRC-IPTS                         4                     The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




gaps left by the market for capacity-building. In the fifth and final scenario, “The
Impresario”, the EFA takes the leading role in organising training and capacity-building
initiatives in Europe. It seeks not only to coordinate existing provision, but also to
deliver peer reviewed, EFA-badged training modules through dozens of centres across
the EU28. Furthermore, it develops academic modules that are beginning to be used as
the basis for new courses in several universities across Europe and beyond.

To reiterate, no recommendations are made in light of the scenarios; rather, readers are
invited to make up their own minds on the EFA they would prefer. With this in mind,
feedback on the shape of a future EFA from Foresight practitioners, sponsors, trainers,
and users is welcomed. In this way, it should be possible to set a broad course of action
on the road to a permanent and sustainable European Foresight Academy.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         5                     The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




1.       Introduction


Foresight practice today stands at a crossroads. It can develop significantly further,
diffusing into ever new areas and situations. Or it can retreat as a passing fad that has
had its day for the time being, with a possible return in 2020. The determining factors
on the direction that will be followed are manifold, and include the demonstrable
usefulness of Foresight in policy and investment decision-making, and the development
of a community of practice committed to Foresight as a process. At the time of writing,
such a community of practice is beginning to emerge in Europe. However, it is widely
acknowledged that further capacity building will be needed if Foresight is to reach its
full potential.

At the same time, the ESTO network possesses a great deal of knowledge and
experience in the Foresight area, with a couple of network members also accustomed to
delivering Foresight training courses. It is therefore not unreasonable to suppose that
ESTO could begin to meet the challenge of capacity-building. With this in mind, the
idea of a European Foresight Academy (EFA) was born.

It should be noted that capacity building refers not only to expanding Foresight
practitioner skills (supply-side) but also to developing an appreciation of Foresight’s
benefits and limitations (demand-side) amongst potential users. An Academy therefore
has to explicitly address two different communities:
     •   Practitioners who are likely to be directly involved in the implementation and
         design of Foresight exercises as vision-building processes at different territorial
         levels (i.e. international, national, regional and local) as well as in different
         domain areas (i.e. sectors, societal problems, organisations, e.g. single firms,
         etc.).
     •   Users (i.e. policy makers, civil servants, public administrators, entrepreneurs,
         researchers, etc…) who are interested in improving their knowledge on available
         Foresight exercises and on how to use Foresight outputs and processes.

The primary aim of this project was to design and test a European training programme
in Foresight with the final goal of establishing a permanent international programme.
Taking a European perspective offers some useful opportunities: it provides a useful
scale for knowledge exchange and mutual learning; it builds upon Europe’s strength of
diversity in Foresight; and it addresses an increasingly important European policy (and
business) space.

A secondary goal was to position JRC-IPTS and the ESTO network as a training
reference centre in Foresight at European level. Accordingly, six ESTO partners
constituted the main project team: JRC-IPTS, PREST, Fraunhofer-ISI, Futuribles,
Technology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences in Prague (TCP), and Finland
Futures Research Centre (FFRC). Other ESTO partners also took part in supporting
roles.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         6                     The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




From this starting point, a Foresight training demand and supply review was conducted.
Based on this, it was apparent that awareness-raising workshops as well as a Foresight
training course would be appropriate. Accordingly, two awareness-raising workshops
were organised along with a 3-day methods training course. To complement these
events, a Foresight Reader was assembled and a web site created.

This report provides an account of these activities, which took place during 2002-03. It
is structured along the following lines. In the following chapter (Chapter 2), we provide
an account of an extensive demand review carried out to underpin the pilot project. The
objective here was to gauge the level of interest in Foresight training and other capacity-
building measures. We then review some of the existing training provision in Chapter
3, focusing on both the executive and university training sectors. In Chapter 4, we
describe the conduct of two awareness workshops organised by the EFA and reflect
upon their successes and failures. We do the same thing again in Chapter 5, but this
time focus upon the 3-day Foresight methods training course delivered by the EFA.
Chapter 6 describes the Foresight Reader and EFA web site developed within the
context of this pilot study, whilst in Chapter 7, we present some possible options for
developing the EFA into a sustainable training programme for Foresight in Europe.

The authors would not have been able to write this report without the support of other
members of the project team. We would therefore like to gratefully acknowledge the
contributions of Rémi Barré (Futuribles/CNAM), Kerstin Cuhls (FhG-ISI), Ken Ducatel
(JRC-IPTS), Luke Georghiou (PREST), Kristina Kadlecikova (TCP), Jari Kaivo-oja
(FFRC), Anna Kaivo-saari (FFRC), Karel Klusáček (TCP), Denis Loveridge (PREST),
Ian Miles (PREST), Rafael Popper (PREST), and Sari Soderlund (FFRC). We would
also like to thank Günter Clar (DG RTD), Fabienne Goux-Baudiment (proGective),
Graham May (Future Skills), Nikki Slocum (UNU-CRIS), and Victor van Rij (KNAW)
for their contributions and advice. Finally, we would like to thank all those individuals
and organisations who contributed to the demand and supply review, and, last but by no
means least, all those who participated in EFA training events. Without their
enthusiasm and feedback, nothing would have been possible.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         7                     The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




2.       Demand Review


Before designing and delivering any training or awareness-raising materials, the ESTO
partners decided that some sort of ‘demand’ review for such services should first be
carried out. It was hoped that by doing this, the project’s activities could be
‘positioned’ to provide true value-added. The account that follows draws upon a
process that saw around 50 persons interviewed and a further 50 answering a
questionnaire survey.


2.1      Defining the Scope of the Review
The project team was unanimous in acknowledging the need for some sort of Foresight
training demand review to be conducted. Accordingly, five potential target groups were
identified through a brainstorming exercise at the project kick-off meeting:
     •   Future programme managers and those who want to become ‘strategic futures’
         suppliers (with a focus upon Candidate Countries). We anticipated their main
         question to be “how do we do Foresight?”
     •   IRE network regional co-ordinators. We anticipated their main question to be
         “how can Foresight benefit my region?”
     •   Introduction for senior decision makers. We anticipated their main question to
         be “what does this mean and how do we use it?”
     •   Research and technology programme officers (e.g. JRC, IPs, national
         research councils and academies). We anticipated their main question to be
         “how can this help us identify emerging areas?”
     •   Professional practitioners (advanced). We anticipated their main question to be
         “what is the state-of-the-art?”

These five groups cover a wide range of potential beneficiaries of Foresight training, at
regional, national and European level, and amongst decision-makers and Foresight
practitioners.

Our approach to the demand review involved a mixture of telephone interviews (for
senior decision makers and research programme managers) and three e-mail
questionnaire surveys (for prospective Foresight managers in Candidate Countries,
existing Foresight / Futures Studies practitioners, and members of the IRE network).
The interview protocols and questionnaire surveys used are attached as an annexe to this
report. These instruments were all deployed during a 10-day period in mid October
2002, with almost 100 persons providing testimony (about a 50/50 balance between
responses through interviews and questionnaire surveys). We present the findings for
each group below.

Generally speaking, we first enquired as to people’s knowledge of existing or past
Foresight activities in their organisations, regions or countries. We then asked how
their organisation, regions, etc. might benefit from Foresight, and enquired as to the



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         8                     The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




need for Foresight training. For some groups, we went on to ask their views on the
usefulness of a European-wide Foresight training programme. Interviews were kept
short (typically around 20 minutes), as were questionnaire surveys. Interviewees were
identified and contacted by ESTO organisations that had responded to a call for data
collection services through the Fast Track facility1. This was necessary, since local
knowledge was needed to reach (1) senior decision makers in national ministries,
academies and research councils, and (2) programme managers in national research
bodies.

In all, around 50 people agreed to be interviewed across 10 European countries, whilst
around 50 people responded to the various questionnaire survey instruments. Although
this number might appear to be impressive, particularly given the tight time span, we
must acknowledge that only a very small sample size was in fact engaged. Moreover,
given the size of the sample, as well as the tendency for interviews to be conducted with
people who were already quite familiar with Foresight, it could be questioned whether
the sample was even remotely representative. In defence of our research approach, we
would argue that even this limited review has provided greater insight into the demand
for Foresight across Europe than any other study previously conducted. Furthermore,
and this is a critical point, the demand review was viewed as a process, through which
the idea of a European Foresight Academy (EFA) would be promoted. So the review
was as much a marketing exercise as an information-gathering task. Under these
circumstances, it was not unreasonable to contact people who the project team
anticipated might be interested in the establishment of the EFA.

Table 1: Various tasks and target groups for reviewing Foresight training demand

     Target group              Means of identification           Means of      Lead organisation
                                                                  contact
Future                     Research organisations and           E-mail       Technology Centre
programme                  ministries in Candidate              survey       Prague (TCP)
managers and               Countries – the JRC-IPTS
‘suppliers’ of             Enlargement Futures and
Foresight                  Spanish Presidency lists were
                           used as starting points
IRE network                Through IRE network                  E-mail       Technology Centre
                           membership                           survey       Prague
                                                                             (a member of the IRE
                                                                             network)
Senior decision            Knowledge of country experts,        Telephone    ESTO Fast Track
makers                     with 2-3 key officials from each     interviews   groups
                           country targeted from the
                           research and industry function
Technology                 (1) JRC programme managers;          Telephone    JRC-IPTS to lead on
programme                  and (2) 2-3 Programme                interviews   JRC contacts; national
officers                   managers from national research                   data gathered through
                           bodies                                            ESTO Fast Track
                                                                             funding
Professional               The project Steering Group           E-mail       PREST
practitioners              nominated names                      survey


1
    Brief explanation of Fast Track



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         9                        The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




2.2      Survey of Candidate Countries
For this target group, an e-mail survey was sent to 35 people in 12 Candidate Countries.
From the 11 responses received, it is apparent that much national-level Foresight is
either ongoing (often with the support of the European Commission) or is about to start
in these countries. Reflecting the research-innovation orientation of those surveyed, it
was thought that Foresight could be usefully deployed to:
    •    Involve stakeholders in policy decision making;
    •    Strengthen currently fragmented national (and regional) innovation systems;
    •    Bring technology and wider policy decisions into closer alignment;
    •   Reach greater consensus on development strategies and goals between research,
        business, education and policy communities; and
    •    Set strategic priorities and achievable goals.

A number of potential barriers that needed to be overcome were also identified:
    •   The current lack of consensus within fragmented innovation systems. In other
        words, some of the problems that Foresight is said to be able to address are also
        thought to be significant barriers to the successful deployment of Foresight;
    •   Unfamiliarity and lack of awareness of Foresight as a concept within the wider
        society, but also specifically amongst policy makers;
    •   Scepticism or lack of understanding of Foresight’s uses amongst policy makers
        and other decision makers;
    •    Difficulty in relating Foresight to existing national development programmes;
    •    Perceived lack of time to invest in activities like Foresight;
    •    Perception that Foresight is a (too?) complex activity to undertake;
    •    Insufficient skills locally available to conduct Foresight successfully; and
    •    Lack of financial resources.

Finally, all respondents thought that their countries could benefit from the establishment
of the EFA. Table 2 presents some of the main suggestions on what the EFA could
deliver and how this might be achieved.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         10                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




Table 2: Responses to the Candidate Country e-survey

 Potential beneficiaries of           What the EFA could offer             How the EFA could
         training                                                                 deliver
   Scientific researchers             Introductory courses on the          Flexibility to respond to
   and Engineers                      nature of Foresight                  different audiences at
   Research Institute                 Awareness-raising for                different levels
   managers                           potential users of Foresight’s       Nationally tailored
   Policy makers in state             results                              introductory courses
   ministries                         Foresight toolbox (approaches        International networks
   Regional authorities               and methods), including state-       International workshops
   Chambers of commerce               of-the-art tools                     (real and virtual)
   Industry                           Training in the management           International user
   Existing forecasting and           and organisation of Foresight        (policy) network(s)
   TA experts                         Training in the practical usage      University modules
   Society in its entirety            and implementation of                Case study library
   Users of Foresight                 Foresight                            Meta-analyses of
   results                            Foresight case studies from          Foresight findings
                                      the practitioners themselves
                                      Knowledge-sharing platform



2.3      Survey of IRE/IRC Network members
For this target group, an e-mail survey was sent to 110 persons via the Networks’
Coordination Unit, with 10 replies received in the one-week response window. Only a
handful of regions that responded to the e-survey had experience of deploying
Foresight. Many had prepared Regional Innovation Strategies (RIS), which more often
than not included some analysis of major market and technological trends over a 5-10
year time horizon, whilst others believed that something like Foresight was definitely
needed in their regions. All respondents but one supported the idea of the Academy –
the non-supporter thought that regional development agencies were not in a position to
do Foresight themselves and therefore had no need for training. Amongst the
supporters, it was thought that Foresight could be usefully deployed to:
    •    Provide information on technological trends;
    •    Achieve regional consensus on R&D, technology, and innovation policy;
    •    Mobilise businesses to increase innovation efforts;
    •    Help in the elaboration of regional development plans; and
    •    Anticipate changes with a view to detecting opportunities.

These rationales for regional Foresight obviously reflect the innovation orientation of
IRE/IRC network members. If we had surveyed Local Agenda 21 officials or other
types of groups, no doubt the rationales offered would have been quite different. This
diversity needs to be borne in mind when thinking about addressing the needs of the
regional Foresight training market.

Returning to the e-survey, a number of potential barriers that needed to be overcome
were also identified:




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         11                      The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




    •    Lack of a culture of forward thinking;
    •   Variable time horizons within the region, with SMEs looking no further than one
        year, regional bureaucrats looking out five years, and politicians looking at only
        to the next election;
    •   Obtaining political support at the national level was deemed essential in small
        countries;
    •    Confusion between Foresight and forecasting;
    •   Foresight can seem too complex to policy makers who tend to prefer
        forecasting;
    •   Difficulties for SMEs (and others, including regional planners) to translate
        Foresight results into workable action plans, which requires methods and skills
        that are often unobtainable;
    •   Insufficient demonstration of Foresight’s utility to regional development
        agencies and general lack of awareness amongst regional planners;
    •    Lack of time to undertake Foresight in busy work schedules; and
    •   Whilst not really a barrier, Foresight needed to be adaptable to different
        situations – one size does not fit all, and attempts at homogenisation should be
        avoided.

Finally, Table 3 presents some of the main suggestions on what the EFA could deliver
and how this might be achieved.

Table 3: Responses to the IRE Network e-survey

 Potential beneficiaries of           What the EFA could offer             How the EFA could
          training                                                                deliver
   Regional ‘partners’,                Full range of courses, from         Knowledge ‘fairs’ for
   including researchers,              the basics to training in the       practitioners
   business, and govt.                 use of tools                        Knowledge transfer
   Regional planners                   Training in the use of ICTs in      through participation in
   Managers of regional                Foresight                           project consortia
   Foresight exercises                 A meeting place to share            Specific courses for
   Personnel of Foresight              experiences and methods             intermediaries rather
   units located in large              Knowledge resource for              than for SMEs
   firms and organisations             ‘leaders’ to better formulate       50/50 participation by
   Intermediary                        policy                              academics and
   organisations that serve            Training in knowledge               practitioners
   SMEs                                management and exploitation         Problem based
                                       techniques                          learning, with tools and
                                       Tools that allow trainees to        methods introduced as
                                       adapt Foresight to their own        participants need them
                                       regions/organisations               to solve particular
                                                                           problems




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         12                      The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




2.4      Interviews with Senior National Decision Makers
The project team decided that national experts would need to be engaged to conduct
interviews with national decision makers and research managers, since they would have
the requisite local knowledge on who to contact. Accordingly, the ESTO Fast Track
facility was put into action, with ten groups coming forward to collect national data.
Thus, ten countries were covered by the Fast Track interview call: Germany, UK,
Netherlands, Greece, France, Finland, Italy, Denmark, Poland and Ireland.

The questions shown in the Annexe were formulated by the project team and were
intended as prompts for the telephone interviews. The interviewer was instructed to use
them as general guidelines and not as direct questions. The questions could be directed
at the interviewees own organisation, his/her policy or research field more generally, or
even at the national system level. This broad scope was encouraged, not least so that
the interviewee did not feel as though his/her own performance was under scrutiny.
Interviews typically lasted for 10-30 minutes. It seems that most interviewees had at
least a passing knowledge of Foresight, with some extremely experienced in its use.

Table 4 shows some of the main points to have emerged from interviews with national
decision makers. For the most part, national ministries and agencies have developed
long-term strategies or visions, sometimes looking out as far as 20 years. Some have
also put in place horizon scanning arrangements, whilst a few others consult their
communities on future directions. All organisations seemed to be at least familiar with
Foresight, with the majority using it in some form or another. This result no doubt
reflects the bias of our sample. Most of those that are already using Foresight indicated
an interest in Foresight training. However, there was less interest shown in methods
training than in the need to gain better understanding of how Foresight can be used by
policymakers. Some of this training should be directed at policymakers themselves who
need to be educated about Foresight. But this will need to be done in the context of
other issues and problems – training need not be in the area of Foresight per se.
European level training was seen as beneficial for learning from exchange of practices
across countries, but it is also apparent that some national level training provision
already exists in some places.


Table 4: Interview responses of decision makers

      Interviewee            Visioning/Futures                  Foresight          Training Needs
                                                               Familiarity
German Federal            Structured consultation         Do not conduct         None, since no plans
Ministry of               with stakeholders; 15-          Foresight themselves   to conduct Foresight
Economics and             20 year time horizon;           but rely on results    themselves
Technology (Energy        futures reports                 generated by others
Div)                      commissioned
Friedrich-Ebert-          Act in responsive               Interested in the      Doubts the utility of
Stiftung (FES)            mode to contemporary            results of Foresight   an EFA for the
policy unit (political    debates; informal               activities but no      foundation, other
foundation that           consultations on                intention to conduct   than as a supplier of
advises the SPD,          emerging issues, but            their own              Foresight results
among others)             time horizon 2-3 years




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         13                          The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




     Interviewee             Visioning/Futures                  Foresight             Training Needs
                                                               Familiarity
Foresight                 Generate visions (and           Run the national          Would be interested
Directorate, UK           help others to do so) at        exercise but feel that    in sending new staff
Office of Science         a national level;               they need to obtain a     on courses; also
and Technology            focused on areas with           broader picture on        interested in existing
                          scientific orientation          tools and methods         staff learning new
                                                          and their                 techniques and
                                                          applicability in          gaining knowledge of
                                                          different situations      practical case studies
UK Dept of                In 2002, started a              Familiar with             Very supportive of
Environment, Food,        horizon scanning                scanning techniques       EFA idea, and would
and Rural Affairs         project, time horizon 0-        and scenarios, but        probably send a
                          20 years; highly                would like to know        number of people for
                          participative and               much more about the       training; EFA should
                          independent                     Foresight toolbox         focus on use of tools,
                                                                                    awareness raising,
                                                                                    and problem based
                                                                                    learning; keen for
                                                                                    EFA to constitute a
                                                                                    network for
                                                                                    practitioners and
                                                                                    theoreticians alike
Dutch Research            Scan long-term                  Not their task to         Given extensive
Council                   assessments developed           conduct Foresight in      Foresight experience
                          by other Dutch                  what is a clear           in the Netherlands,
                          bureaux and feed these          division of labour in     they cannot see the
                          into their strategic            the Netherlands.          usefulness of
                          plans                           This is the task of       training; also thought
                                                          others                    that the use of the
                                                                                    label ‘Academy’ was
                                                                                    inappropriate – this
                                                                                    should be the
                                                                                    preserve of scientific
                                                                                    bodies
Dutch Ministry of         Used several methods            Have conducted            Interested in training
Economic Affairs          and are developing a            several Foresight         and experience
                          specific monitoring             exercises over the        sharing, especially
                          mechanism to                    last decade using a       with regards to
                          continuously trace              variety of                translation of
                          future developments             approaches;               Foresight results into
                          and their likely                generally positive        action; level at which
                          implications; time              experience, although      to conduct Foresight
                          horizon at least 10             justification for using   (granularity);
                          years                           Foresight must            exchange of practical
                                                          always be made            experiences in
                                                                                    Europe




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         14                             The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




     Interviewee             Visioning/Futures                   Foresight           Training Needs
                                                                Familiarity
Greek decision            Greek national                  An earlier national      The need for training
makers                    Foresight exercise              Foresight exercise,      at the systemic level
                          launched in 2002 with           based on a Delphi        is recognised and a
                          2015 and 2021 time              approach, was            national programme
                          horizons; focus on 11           carried out a decade     offering awareness
                          sectors and 4                   ago; latest exercise     raising and methods
                          horizontal areas;               will see greater         training is to be
                          rationale concerns the          reliance on scenario     launched in 2003; the
                          growing complexity of           methods; continuing      EFA could allow for
                          innovation policy (in           barrier is the novelty   exchange with other
                          terms of uncertainties,         of Foresight in          countries and the
                          growing number of               Greece; decision         identification of
                          actors involved, and            makers think that        success and failure
                          growing                         research institutes      factors
                          internationalisation)           need to adopt
                                                          Foresight to avoid
                                                          ‘drifting’
French decision           Strategic plans with            Foresight exercises      There are already
makers                    four year time horizons         conducted to address     many training
                          in INRA; Institut               specific horizontal      seminars in France
                          Pasteur carries out             issues in INRA, and      and a good supply of
                          strategic reviews,              a new 20 year            specialists; what is
                          which are highly                Foresight exercise       needed is some way
                          participative; the              has started, which is    to better relate
                          Ministry of Research            very participative       Foresight with
                          does not have a                 and focused upon         strategic analysis and
                          strategy as such, but           building a vision for    planning; training
                          rather defines policy           INRA; No formal          need not be in the
                                                          exercises in the         area of Foresight per
                                                          Institut Pasteur, but    se, but rather in
                                                          strategic prospective    getting researchers to
                                                          is now part of the       better understand the
                                                          culture at the           new environment and
                                                          Directorate level; no    the need for linkages
                                                          Foresight exercises at   with society
                                                          the Ministry of
                                                          Research and
                                                          reliability of the
                                                          approach questioned
Finnish Ministry of       A long-term vision and          Believe there is a       Training in the
Education                 strategic plan have             place for using          contextual use of
                          been drafted in                 scenarios and other      Foresight tools;
                          consultation with all           Foresight methods,       knowledge sharing on
                          parts of the Ministry           especially as            anticipated obstacles;
                                                          people’s busy            top managers in the
                                                          routines tend to drive   Ministry need to be
                                                          them to short-term       got on board
                                                          outlooks




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         15                            The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




     Interviewee             Visioning/Futures                   Foresight             Training Needs
                                                               Familiarity
Finnish                   They have five-year             Foresight activities in   30-40 experts have
Employment and            strategic visions,              the Centres started in    already been trained,
Economic                  although one Centre             1998; the objectives      but this is
Development               had a 2010 vision on            are to anticipate         insufficient, since all
Centres                   its use of Foresight!           relevant changes,         society should be
                                                          shape desirable           engaged in Foresight
                                                          futures, and to           (especially
                                                          inform current            enterprises, schools,
                                                          decisions; activities     municipalities).
                                                          are organised at          Therefore, the task of
                                                          different levels,         training is vast
                                                          using scenarios,
                                                          expert panels, cluster
                                                          analysis, and
                                                          megatrends; biggest
                                                          obstacles are the
                                                          short-term nature of
                                                          public administration
Parliament of             Has its own Committee           Orders its own            The Parliament does
Finland                   for the Future, which           Foresight studies         not require Foresight
                          lobbies the govt. to            from the best             training but
                          produce future-                 specialists in their      ministerial officials
                          oriented studies and            fields                    need training in
                          then approves these                                       Foresight and
                                                                                    strategic planning
Italian Ministry of       No formalised process           Sponsors of the           There is a strong need
Education,                for generating long-            Italian national          for their admin
University, and           term visions                    Foresight exercise        officers to become
Research                                                  coordinated by            acquainted with
                                                          Fondazione Rosselli;      Foresight so they
                                                          but they are              would be very
                                                          unfamiliar with the       interested in using
                                                          methods and tend to       EFA’s training
                                                          outsource such work       programmes
Polish decision           Strategic plans, but            All familiar with         Perception of need
makers – Ministry of      these do not go beyond          Foresight due to          for foresight training
Science, Polish           five years horizon;             national and EU           in all Polish
Academy of                Polska 2000+                    conferences, with a       ministries, with focus
Knowledge, Polish         Committee existed               few universities now      on methods and tools;
Agency for                since 1969 produces             also incorporating        targets should be
Entrepreneurship          visionary reports               foresight training in     higher and middle
Development               concerning Polish               their programmes;         level managers; study
                          sciences; SWOT                  lack of funds has         tours and post-
                          analysis widely used            meant little Foresight    graduate courses
                          but little else                 being conducted;          preferred
                                                          need for a Foresight
                                                          Commission (central
                                                          point) to promote
                                                          application of
                                                          Foresight and use of
                                                          its results



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         16                             The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




      Interviewee            Visioning/Futures                  Foresight            Training Needs
                                                               Familiarity
Enterprise Ireland        Three year plans; have          Familiar with            Welcome training on
                          developed sector                Foresight but            methods, time
                          scenarios looking out           consider it to be too    frames, etc.;
                          10 years                        complex; the added-      interested in knowing
                                                          value doesn’t justify    how Foresight
                                                          the effort               compares to other
                                                                                   planning tools
Irish Health              Recently went through           Familiar with            Very keen on
Research Board            a consultative strategic        Foresight concept        training; focus should
                          process that resulted in        and think it should be   be on getting people
                          a five year plan around         used more                to think outside of
                          which current policy is                                  their normal mindset
                          based                                                    and to appreciate
                                                                                   other viewpoints
Irish Dept of             A regular 3-year                Agri-Food 2010 and       Training in specific
Agriculture and           rolling plan drawing on         FAPRI-Ireland work       analytical skills like
Food                      SWOT and panel                  considered to be         economical and
                          analysis, as well as            Foresight; but           Foresight analysis
                          consultation within and         barriers to Foresight    would be useful;
                          outside the Dept; Agri-         exist, notably a lack    training should be
                          Food 2010 Committee             of awareness and         available to other
                          worked in 1999;                 relevant skills;         Irish ministries too;
                          FAPRI-Ireland                   shortness of political   Dept of Finance
                          modelling of trends to          horizons also a          organised a seminar
                          inform policy on CAP            barrier                  on Strategic Futures
                          reform                                                   Thinking in Oct 2002
                                                                                   targeted at the public
                                                                                   sector
Forfas, Ireland           Generated a 5-10 year           Responsible for Irish    Foresight should take
                          vision that is annually         national Technology      account of socio-
                          reviewed; vision                Foresight Exercise       economic as well as
                          generated internally by         which has had a          S&T issues and
                          small groups                    major impact on Irish    acknowledge new
                          examining particular            SET scene; no plans      forms of governance
                          issues                          for exercise to be       of science; if this
                                                          repeated or for the      were the case, then a
                                                          processes to be          demand for training
                                                          institutionalised        would emerge among
                                                                                   many Irish govt
                                                                                   departments



2.5      Interviews with National Technology Programme Officers
The same process as that deployed in eliciting views from senior decision makers was
also used to obtain inputs from technology programme officers. National research
programme managers were interviewed across the same 10 countries by the same Fast
Track centres. In addition, JRC-IPTS contacted programme managers across the JRC in
order to gain an insight into demand at European level. Those interviewed tended to be
from research councils, national laboratories, science ministries, and even universities.



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         17                            The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




Few, if any, are performing scientists; rather, they are mostly advisors and strategists
responsible for large-scale research programmes and/or facilities.

Table 5 shows some of the main points to have emerged from interviews with national
research programme managers. For the most part, Foresight has been little used by
those organisations surveyed. Strategic plans, often drawing upon consultation
processes, are near-ubiquitous, with time horizons typically around five years.
Familiarity with Foresight is high, a few institutes having organised their own exercises,
though most are just aware of other exercises and their results. About a third of those
surveyed are interested in using Foresight, but for the others, there was scepticism as to
its usefulness and/or acceptance by scientists.

Despite this mixed picture, there was near unanimity on the need for raising awareness
of Foresight. This was expressed in terms of adapting Foresight to local issues and
concerns, focusing upon the absorption of Foresight results, and generally
demonstrating the relevance of Foresight. About two-thirds of those surveyed also
indicated the usefulness of training in Foresight methods and tools. As for the EFA, this
was mostly viewed as a useful forum for exchange of good practices and experiences
from across Europe. The EFA was therefore seen as being potentially useful to the
theoretical and methodological development of Foresight, although two interviewees
expressed concern that the EFA should not attempt to standardise and homogenise
approaches to Foresight in Europe. There has to be room for innovation and diversity.


Table 5: Interview responses of national research managers

     Interviewee              Visioning/Futures                 Foresight           Training Needs
                                                               Familiarity
Wissenschaftsrat            Conduct cross-                Have conducted a        General training on
(German Science             thematic studies for all      small pilot study and   methods; emphasis
Council)                    levels of German govt.        supported a             on adaptability of
                            with a view to                Foresight               Foresight to own
                            identifying structural        conference; familiar    concerns and
                            deficits; time horizon        with Foresight world    organisation;
                            determined by current         and sees potential to   guidance on when to
                            needs and issues              deploy the process in   use Foresight (and
                                                          the Council             when not to use it)
Volkswagen                  Rely upon search              No intention to         Exposure of young
Foundation                  conferences to identify       conduct own             researchers in the
(Germany)                   areas for support             Foresight but they do   Foundation to
                                                          look at results of      Foresight approaches
                                                          other Foresight         used elsewhere, to
                                                          activities to inform    see how others do
                                                          their work              things; this could also
                                                                                  improve absorption
                                                                                  of Foresight results;
                                                                                  but is an Academy
                                                                                  dedicated solely to
                                                                                  Foresight really
                                                                                  required?




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         18                           The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




     Interviewee              Visioning/Futures                   Foresight            Training Needs
                                                                 Familiarity
Wellcome Trust              The Unit supports               Did some Foresight       Very interested in
Policy Unit (UK)            planning of the Trust’s         work 7-8 years ago       participating in the
                            portfolio and gathers           but not recently;        EFA; would like
                            intelligence, mostly            very interested in re-   EFA to provide
                            through workshops               engaging (esp. in        training in use of
                            and seminars                    horizon scanning)        latest tools and to act
                                                                                     as a forum for
                                                                                     exchange of good
                                                                                     practice and
                                                                                     experiences
Biotechnology and           Has just carried out            Does not do its own      No training needs;
Biological Sciences         wide consultation on            Foresight work;          they would outsource
Research Council            10 year vision for              looks to others to       to PREST/SPRU if
(UK)                        biosciences funding;            provide inputs, e.g.     they needed
                            drafts five year                national Foresight       Foresight skills; EFA
                            strategies, again                                        should avoid trying
                            consulting the                                           to homogenise
                            community through                                        Foresight
                            workshops and reports
Greek research              Dependency on EC                A national Foresight     Difficulty in seeing
managers                    money for research              exercise is              how Foresight could
                            means that the Greek            underway; but            be usefully deployed
                            system rarely looks             doubts on usefulness     in organisations led
                            beyond five years and           of Foresight             to some scepticism of
                            that futures thinking is        approach within          the benefits of
                            confined only to desk           research performing      training; the EFA
                            researchers                     institutions             could encourage
                                                                                     exchange of
                                                                                     experiences with
                                                                                     emphasis on
                                                                                     difficulties in
                                                                                     applying Foresight
French research             Strategic four-year             Hardly a space for       Need to demonstrate
managers                    action plans have been          Foresight, since         relevance of
                            developed in                    scientists believe       Foresight for a
                            interviewees’ institutes        they are on top of       research program or
                                                            developments in          institute; notion of
                                                            their fields. But one    Foresight is of a
                                                            interviewee thought      collective
                                                            that the need for        undertaking, which is
                                                            scientific prospective   often at odds with
                                                            existed                  researchers’ view of
                                                                                     what they do
Finnish research            Five yearly strategic           Several Foresight        Tools and techniques
managers                    visions are common              exercises have been      in Foresight; issues
                                                            conducted over the       in stakeholder
                                                            years                    management




European Commission JRC-IPTS                           19                            The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




     Interviewee              Visioning/Futures                   Foresight            Training Needs
                                                                 Familiarity
Italian National            They don’t have a               Foresight has not        CNR (and other
Research Council            long-term strategic             been used mainly         institutes’)
(CNR)                       vision of their own but         due to cultural          researchers could
                            rely on the articulation        barriers: lack of        benefit from
                            of vision from                  awareness of             Foresight training
                            researchers to inform           Foresight,               (basic approach and
                            their programmes                insufficient skills,     methods), so that
                                                            and the policy           their research choices
                                                            making process,          could become more
                                                            which is marked by       rational and
                                                            bargaining rather        systematic
                                                            than strategic vision.
                                                            But they are very
                                                            interested in trying
                                                            to use Foresight
Danish research             Long-term strategic             Use of Foresight is a    An exchange of
managers                    plans underpinned by            relatively new           Foresight researchers
                            Foresight exercises are         development and not      between institutes
                            common to all four              yet widespread in        would be very
                            institutes examined             Denmark. So far ,        valuable. Employees
                                                            experiences have         in the institutes
                                                            been mixed; but          surveyed had all
                                                            some problems have       undergone training in
                                                            included the need for    the use and mgt of
                                                            better understanding     Foresight techniques.
                                                            of industry and          One concern was that
                                                            techno dynamics and      the EFA could stifle
                                                            greater skill in the     innovation as it
                                                            use of Foresight         strides for
                                                            tools                    standardisation in its
                                                                                     attempts to formalise
                                                                                     a training
                                                                                     programme; but
                                                                                     another interviewee
                                                                                     thought that the EFA
                                                                                     offered a good forum
                                                                                     for theoretical and
                                                                                     methodological
                                                                                     developments
Polish research             Visionary documents             There is awareness       Overall, training
managers –                  have been drafted and           of Foresight but it is   needs within the
Framework                   implemented,                    little used; several     institutes were not
Programme NCP,              especially in the               case studies relevant    regarded as a
Polish Acadeny of           university sector               to Polish                priority. Rather,
Sciences, University                                        circumstances            Foresight training
of Mining, Krakow,                                          described in a           should be provided
Ministry of Economy,                                        tutorial style would     by tertiary level
Polish Agency for                                           make Foresight           education. Thus, the
Entrepreneurship                                            much more popular        EFA could support
Development                                                                          university course
                                                                                     development



European Commission JRC-IPTS                           20                            The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




      Interviewee             Visioning/Futures                  Foresight           Training Needs
                                                               Familiarity
Teagasc (Irish              Teagasc 2000                  Familiar with            First necessary to
Agriculture and             document set out the          Foresight but            create an awareness
Food Development            organisations long-           believes that a big      of the usefulness of
Authority)                  term vision and was           shift in thinking in     Foresight and then
                            the basis for its current     the agriculture sector   provide the training
                            5-year plan; was the          is needed for people     to develop the core
                            result of a process           to be interested         competencies for
                            involving panels and                                   using the methods
                            SWOT analysis,
                            among other methods



2.6      Interviews with JRC Research Managers
JRC-IPTS conducted interviews with JRC Research Managers using the same interview
protocol as was used at the national level. The majority of JRC institutes have a 5-year
work programme that is related to the time horizon of the Framework Programme and
they lack a long-term strategy (10 years). This type of short-termism is mainly due to
the financing mechanisms of the EC as well as to the need to be able to quickly react to
client/policy requests. As for futures thinking, conferences and workshops, as well as
personal contacts, are considered the principal sources of information on future
scientific developments. Internal activities involving all staff are sometimes organised,
with a strong leading role for senior managers (directors and heads of unit). In general,
institutes seem to not use systematic analysis and techniques to anticipate future threats
and opportunities that could affect their work. What is frequently missing is the “big
picture”, covering the social, political and economic dimensions of S&T through a
cross-disciplinary approach.

As for prioritisation, Directors of the institutes, heads of unit and senior staff members
take part in the prioritisation process of the institute’s strategic objectives. As well,
external demands from policy makers may influence the priorities of the institute.
Strategic priorities are then ‘translated’ in forms of resource allocation to the priority
projects. Foresight is perceived as a tool to improve resources use and efficiency.

Familiarity with Foresight techniques is generally quite low. In some cases, JRC
institutes rely on prospective analyses that are outsourced to specialised consulting
companies. As for the usefulness of Foresight training, this is judged to be needed
mainly to complement the scientific and technological excellence that is present in JRC
institutes with a more general view of socio-economic determinants and trends that
affect the future of research and its priorities. In other words, it is important that JRC
institutes support policy demands, but they also have to follow scientific trends and
maintain their knowledge and scientific excellence.

Following interviewees’ suggestions, Foresight training should cover:
•   Overall Foresight methodology;
•   Preparation and management of Foresight exercises;
•   Identification of research priorities;



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•   Development of horizontal and cross-disciplinary projects; and
•   Preparation and management of pilot studies on topics such as health, biomedicine,
    nuclear, GMOs, food safety, etc.

It was suggested that a pilot training course should aim to train trainers’, thereby
generating a multiplier effect for further use of Foresight techniques at project level. It
was anticipated that 10-15 persons from each JRC institute could participate at the
training course (2-3 persons per unit). This should include staff members that have co-
ordinating roles and are involved in project design and preparation. It was believed
important that people delivering the training course should also have some knowledge
of the specialities of the participating JRC institutes in order to better focus the activity.


2.7      Survey of Existing Practitioners
An e-mail survey was sent out to 43 well-known Foresight practitioners in October
2002 with 23 replies received after one week, the survey cut-off point. In addition, a
further four individuals who came to hear about the survey expressed their support for
the EFA within this one-week time frame. The Annexe shows the questions included in
the survey – only three of these are relevant to our current discussion, i.e. who could
benefit from training, what further training should be provided, and how they hoped to
benefit themselves from the EFA. Answers to the other questions posed in the survey
have informed other parts of this report, notably Chapter 7.

Dealing with each of these three questions in turn:

Question A: Who, in your view, could most benefit from Foresight training? Please
justify your answer, indicating possible mechanisms for enrolling such groups into
Foresight training programmes.
Here, several potential targets and rationales were identified:
    •   Foresight exercise managers and facilitators, e.g. panel chairpersons, technical
        secretaries, Foresight project managers, etc. Such people can be found at
        multiple governance levels and in many different sorts of institutions. They
        would tend to be trained within the context of a Foresight exercise;
    •   University students and professors. There are many academic areas where
        Foresight training would be useful (some people would argue that all academic
        programmes could benefit by including Foresight training). The most obvious
        examples include planners, designers, public sector managers, risk analysts,
        competitive intelligence analysts, etc. At the same time, Foresight itself could
        benefit from learning things from these and other fields;
    •   Technology policy decision makers – at regional, national and EU level, to help
        them understand the value of Foresight as a strategic tool and to use it for
        programme design;
    •   Wider public policy decision makers – in all fields of policymaking, a greater
        understanding of the value of Foresight as a strategic tool is needed. For
        example, strategic planners can become more aware of broader alternatives and
        how to deal with them using Foresight, as well as checking the interaction of



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        vision, goals, and strategies. Awareness raising events targeted at ministers and
        their policy teams were suggested by a number of respondents – decision-
        makers need to be sufficiently trained to understand the utility of foresight
        without necessarily being able to conduct it;
    •   Corporate strategic planners, who could benefit from access to and use of
        Foresight results. They could also benefit from being shown how to tailor
        Foresight methodologies to their individual needs. Existing training and support
        services and associations could help with the latter;
    •   Other stakeholders, e.g. third sector organisations. Public and advocacy groups,
        including NGOs, could benefit from greater understanding of the changes in
        their environment, as well as more explicit development of shared goals.
        Familiarity with and use of Foresight tools could help here;
    •   Researchers and policy advisors, since they are the ones who need to be able to
        convince decision makers of the utility of Foresight; and
    •    Futurists and other developers of the Foresight field – see below.

As an antidote to this positive endorsement of training programmes, one well-known
Foresight practitioner and theoretician made the following remark:

    “It is easy to jump to the conclusion that creating a significant difference in public and
    private sector orientations to the future and to understanding the meaning and implications
    of technology and other drivers is a matter of learning a few scenario methods. However,
    such a change requires both significant competence and underpinning social institutions, i.e.
    policy mechanisms. Thus the question you pose is rather trivial compared to the real issue,
    and until the bigger question is addressed, recruitment and take up of significant ‘foresight’
    training will be expensive to administer and difficult to sell.”

We will take up this point in Chapter 7 when we come to consider future options for the
EFA.

Question B: In light of your answers above, what further Foresight training provision
would you like to see? And how could a European Foresight Academy be configured
to meet this training agenda?
The following were identified as areas where training was said to be needed:
    •   Guidelines on different approaches to Foresight and their adaptation to particular
        contexts; developing the meaning and contexts of Foresight in different use
        domains; and evaluating the effectiveness of various approaches. In this sense,
        the EFA was imagined as a nucleus of reference that would aid the evolution of
        the Foresight field;
    •   Project management of Foresight exercises, which may draw upon conventional
        project management training;
    •    Training in the use of online tools and the state of the art;
    •   Engaging policy makers by explaining what foresight is and what it implies.
        This will mean providing practical examples of Foresight application and clearly
        making understood its utility;




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    •   Promoting the utility of Foresight to those who write EU project proposals and
        who are supposed to include Foresight in them; such training should also be
        extended to the EU funding community that decides on successful proposals;
        and
    •    Introduction of Foresight into school and university curricula.

The EFA was imagined by many as an organisational platform for developing and
coordinating Foresight training at decentralised national/regional levels. Decentralised
centres might include existing local education and training providers who would use
centrally developed materials. There would also be extensive horizontal collaboration
between centres. Decentralisation would probably mean that most courses could be
offered in the local language rather than just English.

It was clear to many that courses should come in many shapes and sizes, would address
different issues, and would be targeted at different groups. The important thing was that
they should be offered regularly, e.g. through annual summer schools, etc. Some
respondents hoped for the establishment of a ‘virtual’ university that would make
extensive use of the internet and e-learning tools, though any modules offered would
have to be fully accredited through an internationally accepted system.

Question C: How would you (and/or your organisation) hope to benefit from a
European Foresight Academy? For example, could you envisage such an Academy
providing mutual learning on state-of-the-art methods?
Respondents were unanimous in their support for the EFA, suggesting a number of
ways that they and the Foresight community might benefit from such an organisation.
For example, the EFA could:
    •   Create the space for exchange of knowledge and practice. In particular, it would
        allow for mutual learning, especially on state-of-the-art methods and the use of
        new online tools. It could even constitute a space for research collaboration;
    •   Provide insights into how the community might improve on what it is already
        doing and essentially advance standards;
    •   Provide greater visibility and therefore acceptance of Foresight more widely.
        This could increase the demand for training and see more funds available for this
        task;
    •   Broaden views of what Foresight is and what it is supposed to do. There is a
        diversity of cultural, historical, social and disciplinary contexts for using
        Foresight in Europe, and the EFA offers the possibility for these to be better
        understood and mutually appreciated.
    •   Help to normalise the academic status of Foresight in universities. This might
        also increase the scope for Foresight to learn from other disciplines and vice
        versa;
    •   Generate regular documentation, such as teaching aids, and organise events,
        such as training workshops. In other words, the EFA would offer some sort of
        regular and stabilised supply of materials and events that people and
        organisations could depend upon;



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    •   Provide support for embryonic localised activities. Such support might be in the
        form of providing teaching materials, attending meetings, and providing guest
        speakers at local events. More ambitiously, support could also take the form of
        being able to offer some sort of accreditation to local training centres;
    •   Provide a focal point for practitioners and scholars to meet and to learn from one
        another. This could help to clarify and develop the theoretical basis of Foresight
        and its concomitant techniques;
    •   Provide a register of expertise and experiences. This may be provided already,
        at least in part, by the planned Foresight Map being organised by DG RTD.
        Once up and running, the latter should be reviewed to gauge whether it meets
        these expectations; and
    •   Provide sufficient scale at the European level that is mostly absent at the
        national level. As one leading German practitioner put it, “Since there is only a
        very small Foresight community in Germany, mutual learning on the European
        level could be tremendously helpful for us.”


2.8      Conclusions
Notwithstanding the bias in our review sample, the results of the study show an
overwhelming level of demand for Foresight training, well beyond the expectations of
the project team. Several possible course offerings were subsequently suggested,
including:
    1. Awareness-raising workshops, directed primarily at policy makers, but also
       directed at scientists and EU project proposal writers, e.g. those intending to
       submit Integrated Project proposals under FP6
    2. Foresight methods ‘toolbox’ training, covering some of the main methods
    3. Training courses focused upon state-of-the-art Foresight methods, including use
       of ICTs in Foresight
    4. Training in the management and organisation of Foresight exercises, similar to
       the courses offered by PREST and UNIDO (see Chapter 3)
    5. Courses on how to use (absorb) Foresight results for successful implementation
       outcomes
    6. In addition, workshops where organisations can discuss the implications of
       Foresight results for their own policy areas, business sectors, etc.
    7. Wider courses, for instance, directed at a particular domain area (e.g. urban
       regeneration) or issue (e.g. the new governance of science), with Foresight
       embedded within them
    8. Courses for explicitly multiplying Foresight practice through the training of
       trainers (e.g. staff in business support programmes) and teachers (e.g. secondary
       school teachers)
    9. University courses, ranging from individual modules embedded in other courses
       through to full Masters programmes
    10. Incorporation into school and college curricula




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    11. Workshops, rather than training courses (or conferences, where there is rarely
        any intimacy), where practitioners and theoreticians can meet to share ideas and
        experiences

Of course, lots of demand does not necessarily translate into a need to establish a
European Foresight Academy. Yet, there also seems to be widespread support across
the board for the establishment of the EFA, its potential responsibilities ranging from
the supply of teaching materials for decentralised training centres across the Member
States though to the EFA constituting a virtual university. In fact, there are few
discernible differences in opinion on the sorts of training needed across the various
groups canvassed. The only main difference seems to be the marked interest of existing
practitioners and theoreticians to have Foresight and Futures Studies more
institutionalised into the academic world. Most obviously, this takes the form of
Foresight courses being offered at universities. But for the other target groups
consulted in this review, embedding Foresight in universities was much less of a
concern.

Within the context of the objectives for this pilot study, we were committed from the
start to conducting a training course, but now the choice seemed bewildering, at least in
theory. In practice, however, we had to be pragmatic. This meant choosing from the
top end of the list above. We decided that at least one awareness workshop should be
organised, given the number of people who highlighted this as a need. Ultimately, two
such workshops were held (see Chapter 4). We also organised a 3-day training course
focused on Foresight methods (see Chapter 5), which was sufficiently distinctive vis-à-
vis existing courses being offered elsewhere. This was targeted at prospective regional
Foresight practitioners, who had expressed a strong desire for methods training in their
survey responses.

From the outset, we were also committed to producing an accompanying “Course
Manual”. The demand review saw this mentioned only a few times, but it was naturally
assumed by the project team that face-to-face training should be accompanied by
background literature. We slightly modified the idea of a course manual to produce
instead a “Foresight Reader”. This was intended to be more general and reusable than a
course manual, though pitched at an intermediate rather than beginner level.

All in all, the demand review provided extremely useful intelligence. It also lent the
EFA much-needed publicity right from the start. Moreover, the results of the demand
review have been useful for justifying the decisions taken in the project, especially
regarding the choice of target audience and the training formats used.




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3.       Supply Review


Obtaining a sense of likely demand for Foresight capacity-building activities, such as
training and awareness workshops, provides only half of the picture. It is also necessary
to get a measure of existing supply of Foresight training, not only to identify gaps in
provision, but also to learn from current capacity-building practice. This chapter
therefore looks at existing training provision in Europe, covering both the executive
education and the university sectors.


3.1      Scope of the Supply Review
The supply review focused on the teaching of Foresight – its principles, its
methodologies, and the uses to which it might be put. It did not include other capacity-
building activities, such as conferences or coaching. The latter is an interesting case –
there are many suppliers of coaching in Foresight, coming mostly from private sector
consultancy companies. Such coaching services more often than not include a
significant training component, but their main focus is usually the establishment and
facilitation of a Foresight process in a single organisation. Indeed, any training offered
by such suppliers is nearly always closed to anyone other than the immediate paying
customer, which is normally a company or public sector organisation. The training
courses we cover in our supply review are, by contrast, open to anyone to join, though
usually for a fee, and are organised on a regular basis (as opposed to one-off training
events for single clients).

We have split the review into two parts, one part focusing on executive education, the
other on university courses. Executive education courses are normally short courses
(typically 2-5 days) offered to policy makers, managers, and entrepreneurs. They tend
to be practically focused on methods and use of Foresight. University courses are much
longer and can result in undergraduate and postgraduate qualifications. They tend to be
more philosophically based, although also quite practical.

Our methodology has been simple – we asked existing Foresight practitioners surveyed
for the demand review to tell us about any training courses currently being offered.
After reviewing this data, as well as drawing upon our own knowledge of current
activities, we chose to feature the institutions below. Information on the activities
outlined has been collected mostly through the internet and personal contacts. Finally,
we would not want to claim that the whole picture of training provision in Europe has
been captured here, but we do believe that many of the main activities have been
covered.


3.2      Executive Education
We have identified four organisations that offer training programmes that meet our
supply review criteria of open access courses: Futuribles, PREST (Policy Research in
Engineering, Science and Technology) at the University of Manchester, Z_punkt (Büro




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für Zukunftsgestaltung), and UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development
Organisation). Each is described below.


Futuribles
Futuribles is an independent, private organisation. Its overall aim is to contribute to a
better understanding of the contemporary world and, using an approach that is strongly
interdisciplinary and forward-looking, to explore possible futures (in French: “futurs
possibles”), the issues involved, and the policies and strategies that might be adopted.
Futuribles International organises training seminars on the concepts and methods of
monitoring and forecasting, and also on the futures studies approach applied to
geopolitical and socio-demographic fields, amongst others.

Futuribles offers two types of training activities:
    •   Public (open) seminars on the concepts and methods applied in prospective and
        technology watch studies, and seminars related to applied prospective on
        specific fields such as socio-demographic and geopolitical issues. In general the
        training seminars last for two-days with a limited number of participants in order
        to have an interactive environment where participants can express their
        particular interests on the issues.
    •   In addition Futuribles offers seminars on-demand to organizations, industries
        and public authorities at national and local level.

The training activities on Foresight methods and tools are organised in cooperation with
CNAM (Conservatoire Nationale des Arts et Metiers) and its research laboratory
(LIPSOR – Laboratoire d’Investigation de Prospective, Stratégie et Organisation). The
delivery of the course is shared by the two organisations. This training allows
participants to get familiar with the techniques used in Foresight studies, starting from
the theoretical background but also through the presentation of practical cases of
Foresight studies conducted at territorial and sectoral (i.e. firms) levels. In addition, this
type of seminar delivers to its participants the key elements that are necessary to carry
out a prospective exercise and to implement strategic choices in an organisation.


PREST, University of Manchester
PREST (Policy Research in Engineering, Science and Technology) is a department of
the University of Manchester that specialises in science, technology and innovation
policy and processes. Since 1999, it has run an annual one-week course in foresight,
targeted at those who will be managing foresight activities. Course participants have
come from more than thirty countries over this time. The course covers every aspect of
foresight activity including:
    •   The importance of the sponsors role throughout in setting objective and
        identifying target audiences;
    •   The organisation and management of the different ways in which the activity
        can be carried out;
    •    The theoretical underpinnings of foresight processes;




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    •   The choice of methods to be used, which has a major influence on the costs,
        organisation, credibility and usefulness of the activity;
    •    Reporting and interpretation, including the use of prioritization; and
    •    Implementing the outcome in the company and the public sphere.

The course is residential and is organised around parallel streams of lectures and
practical work that enables participants to experience the relevance of each lecture and
the realities of foresight activity. In the past, participants have been able to use this
‘hands on’ experience to plan foresight activity which they have implemented on
returning to their own countries or companies. New features are incorporated into the
course each year to present PREST's and other’s work in shaping the development of
foresight activity.


Z_punkt
Founded in 1997, Z_punkt GmbH Büro für Zukunftsgestaltung (Agency for Shaping the
Future) is a think tank specialised in scientific futures studies. It offers multiple
services to public and private sector organisations, including environmental scanning
and scenario development. Since 2003, it has established the Z_foresight academy,
which is intended to be a building block for the establishment of a qualified training
institution for future studies in Germany. In the long run, they aim to create a post-
graduate course for future studies. But for the moment, they offer two-day training
workshops that target professionals in executive management, strategic marketing,
business management, innovation, R&D, and personnel management. Several such
workshops have been held in 2003, focusing on things like the methods of futures
studies and the applications of scenarios for strategy development.


UNIDO
Within the context of its “Regional Initiative on Technology Foresight (TF) for Central
and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Newly Independent States (NIS)”, UNIDO has
sought to strengthen and develop national and regional Foresight capabilities.
Accordingly, a series of specific training courses has been developed, loosely modelled
on the PREST short course. Training courses are grouped in three modules with
different target audiences.

Module one: Training courses for organisers of national or regional Foresight
exercises. These courses provide participants with the basic knowledge on application
of Foresight tools in strategic decision making for technological development,
modalities of implementation of Foresight initiatives, available Foresight
methodologies, and Foresight experience and prospects in the CEE/NIS region.
Courses last for five days with leading international experts delivering lectures and
practical sessions on (1) principal foresight experiences and good practices; (2) case
studies as a reference and inspiration for organising foresight exercises; (3) guided
hands-on exercises in organising foresight programmes; and (4) networking of experts
and institutions in the region for Foresight initiatives. This module has been run twice
so far, first in Budapest (2001) and more recently in Ankara (2003). An accompanying
textbook has also been prepared for Module 1. Partners from the EFA project team,




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namely PREST and Fraunhofer-ISI, were instrumental in designing and delivering these
courses. A third course is likely to run in 2004.

Module two: Training courses for Foresight practitioners who are likely to conduct
exercises. The main objective here is to provide participants with the knowledge of
technology foresight tools as well as hands-on experience in applying such tools and
methodologies to address strategic questions and decisions such as:
    •   What technologies are likely and/or desirable to be dominant in national or
        regional economy?
    •    What priorities should national research and development programmes feature?
    •   Where should the budget for publicly funded research and development be
        allocated?
    •    What skills and competencies should be developed for the future?
    •   What will be the demand of society for industrial products, services, food,
        housing, health care, education, life style and welfare over the next 10 years?
Thus far, this module has been run only once – in Prague during 2003. It, too, lasted for
five days. Three partners from the EFA project team – Technology Centre of the Czech
Academy of Sciences (TCP), PREST, and Fraunhofer ISI – were together responsible
for delivering about two-thirds of the course content. A course textbook has been
prepared for Module 2, again drawing upon EFA partners’ expertise. It covers the use
of some of the main methods used in Foresight exercises, including scenarios, Delphi,
expert panels, critical technologies, brainstorming, trend analysis, and technology road
mapping. This course is likely to be repeated in 2004, again with TCP as the hosts.

Module three: Training coursers for decision-makers involved in Foresight
exercises. This module has been organised twice in Moscow in late 2003 and consists
of a single-day workshop with an emphasis on the practical use of Foresight results. In
the first workshop, national decision-makers were the target group, in the second,
regional decision-makers. Both modules had speakers from Germany, the UK, and
Russia, with presentations on existing experiences and their utility.

All training courses are hosted by a CEE/NIS institution that is looking to develop its
own capacity to deliver similar training courses in the future. Indeed, this is one of the
main aims of the UNIDO courses – to develop a Foresight training capacity across the
CEE/NIS region that can act as a multiplier for Foresight practice. With this in mind,
UNIDO are about to embark upon the design of distance learning training modules.
The exact shape and content of these courses has yet to be determined at the time of
writing, but they will be built around the extensive material UNIDO have already
gathered (and paid for) over the last four years. Initially, courses will be offered only in
Russian and English, with the Distance Learning Centre at the Technical University of
Ukraine in Kyiv responsible for rolling-out courses. This should be achieved by mid-
2004. The material may then be translated into other major languages, probably French,
Spanish, and Mandarin initially, for delivery from other centres around the world.




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3.3       University Curricula
We have identified three university programmes that meet our supply review criteria:
the Conservatoire Nationale des Arts et Metiers (CNAM) in Paris, the Faculty of Social
Sciences at the Pontifical Gregorian University of Rome, and the Finland Futures
Academy in Turku. Each is described below. We are also aware of programme
developments currently taking place at PREST at the University of Manchester, the
Freie Universitaet Berlin, and the newly established Futures Academy at the Dublin
Institute of Technology. Moreover, there are several centres around Europe that offer
lectures on Foresight and futures studies, but these are part of wider programmes and
have not been included here. Examples include the University of Alicante, the
University of Deusto in San Sebastian, the Budapest Futures Research Centre, and the
Universitatea Babes-Bolyai in Cluj-Napoca, Romania. For further information on these
programmes, see the Australian Futures Institute (AFI) International Survey of
University Futures Courses.2


LIPSOR, Conservatoire Nationale des Arts et Metiers
The Conservatoire Nationale des Arts et Metiers (CNAM) is a higher education and
research public institution, under the supervision of the Ministries of Education and
Research. CNAM awards its own government-recognised degrees as well as national
degrees ranging from two to five years higher education duration. For more than ten
years, a research laboratory on prospective, strategy and organisation (LIPSOR –
Laboratoire d’Investigation en Prospective Stratégie et Organisation) has been operating
in CNAM. The laboratory is chaired by Prof. Michel Godet, a leading figure in the
French tradition of Foresight, la prospective.

The research programme of LIPSOR is built around six main topics: prospective,
strategic management and organisation; organisation, information systems and
organisational changes; epistemology and methodologies of strategic prospective;
prospective management of human resources; global scenarios environment and local
development; and prospective and technological evaluation.

Since 1982, LIPSOR has been one of the main European centres of teaching and
research on Foresight. The department delivers courses of 80 to 100 hours duration on
different prospective issues such as: prospective methods and strategic analysis;
strategic prospective: research and application; prospective and evaluation of research
and technology; environmental prospective, sustainable development and strategy of
enterprises; and territorial prospective. Courses participants receive at the end, after
submission of essays, certificates that are valid to a degree on management. Finally,
LIPSOR also offers a PhD programme on ‘Prospective, strategy and organisation’. The
doctoral training is organised within a partnership network with other French
universities and research laboratories.




2
    REF



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The Pontifical Gregorian University of Rome
The Faculty of Social Sciences at the Gregorian University of Rome offers a course on
Social and Human Foresight delivered by Professor Eleonora Barbieri Masini. This
course concentrates more on the epistemological, philosophical and ethical aspects of
Foresight. For example, themes such as philosophical and ethical aspects of Foresight
and prospective studies and their relations with science, values, experts responsibilities
taking part in Foresight studies, Foresight limitations and cultural aspects related with
Foresight are considered and taught. The course also provides modules on the methods
and techniques used in Foresight, and critical analyses of the most recent Foresight
studies, their outcomes and their impacts. As this course is only one subject among
others to obtain the degree on Social Sciences, it is not separately certified. However, it
is possible, after having passed the exam at the end of the course, to choose this subject
for the doctoral programme of the Gregorian University.


Finland Futures Academy
Finland Futures Academy (FFA) is composed of a national network of universities
aimed at facilitating academic educational and research programmes into futures
studies. The co-ordinating unit of FFA is the Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC)
in Turku, a project partner in this EFA pilot. The courses offered involve modules of
intensive training and distance learning and are available for students either as a part of
other futures studies modules or as supplementary studies within the specific orientation
of an M.A. degree. Courses are carried out by member universities with the FFA giving
them learning facilities such as study planning, conducting and evaluation service, study
materials, virtual learning surrounding and video and audio sessions. In addition, FFA
develops adult education modules for the continuing education centres etc. and tailor-
made training modules for enterprises, ministries and municipalities etc. organisations,
which use futures studies.

The syllabus is based on “regular” modules and on “specialised” modules, which are
implemented on a project by project basis. FFA is responsible for the implementation
of the regular modules, the funding of which comes from the Ministry of Education.
Two such modules are being offered in the 2003/04 academic year, each being worth
7.5 ECTS (European Credit Transfer System) credits. The first, on how to explore the
future, covers (1) the philosophical and value issues associated with futures studies and
(2) an introduction to the various methods used in futures studies. The second module,
on futures research methods, covers scenario methods, Delphi, soft systems
methodology and quantitative forecasting methods, with a focus on multidisciplinary
research problems.

The specialised modules are organised, based on demand, in collaboration with relevant
partners (FFA member universities, ministries, enterprises etc.), and offer the possibility
to deepen and widen the knowledge and methodological foundations of futures studies.

Given the distributed nature of the FFA, novel ways have been found to deliver these
courses, including the use of virtual learning environments, telematics, virtual guidance,
etc. Students meet weekly for three hours in their local study group to participate in
lectures via audio and video sessions and to participate in group work and discussions.
Students also read study material and do independent self study assignments via e-mail.



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         32                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




Since 2002, the course has been offered across Europe, with students gathering around
via learning environment WebCT (Web Course Tools) to share their ideas and
experiences.

We will say more on the structure and organisation of the FFA in Chapter 7, when we
come to consider future options for a sustainable EFA.


3.4      Conclusions
Whilst there is some impressive provision of regular, “open-access” Foresight training
across Europe, it is definitely patchy in its geographical coverage. Indeed, in most
Member States, there seems to be no or little coverage. If a significant increase in
demand was to materialise over the short-medium term, existing provision would be
hard-stretched to meet it. That said, it is not difficult to imagine existing and emergent
centres creating new courses to meet new demands. Moreover, much demand can and
will be soaked up by private consultants, both big and small, offering coaching and
process support to companies and public sector organisations. The review has not
covered this sort of provision, but it is believed to be already significant.

In the executive market, the PREST and UNIDO courses are very internationalised,
whilst the Futuribles and Z-punkt courses are more geared to home markets, on account
of language (French and German, respectively). Courses focus on learning about
methods (particularly the use of scenarios) and on how to organise and manage
Foresight exercises. The university courses on offer are also quite internationalised,
with the Finland Futures Academy a good exemplar of cross-border course delivery at
this level. This is an initiative that could be expanded to cover all countries in Europe.
It could also be further developed to accommodate wider definitions and understanding
of the meaning of “Foresight”, which is a contested space at the present time. We will
say more on this in Chapter 7 when we come to consider future options for the EFA.

There is little sign of an organised series of awareness-raising events emanating from
these or other centres in Europe, yet this was a key need identified in the demand
review. This is hardly surprising: such events are risky to organise without strong
institutional partnership from the target community. This is normally forthcoming only
within the contexts of Foresight exercises. However, the centres identified have used
other means of awareness-raising. For example, Z_punkt, Futuribles, and FFA all
produce regular newsletters and information sheets that are widely distributed. Several
new networks have also begun to spring up in the last few years, such as Foresight-
Prospective in France and euroProspective across Europe more widely, with more or
less ambitious goals of promoting Foresight in policy making. So, to conclude, the
picture is a dynamic one, with new initiatives and networks emerging all the time. We
will discuss in Chapter 7 the options open for the EFA in this fast-evolving field.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         33                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




4.       Awareness Workshops


In light of the feedback from the demand review, it was apparent that many groups and
organisations that should be using Foresight (in the opinion of our respondents) were
unaware of its existence or benefits. Moreover, it was clear that little, if any, of the
existing training provision is meeting this awareness-gap challenge. The project team
therefore decided to organise two awareness workshops focused upon two distinct
groups – regional development professionals in the IRC/IRE Network and JRC
programme managers. The objective for both workshops was to inform attendees of
what Foresight is and how it could help them in their planning and decision-making.
Two sorts of presentations were therefore used: (1) general introductions to Foresight
and (2) illustrative examples of Foresight in action. A mix of speakers, both from
within and outside the project team, was engaged, bringing with them a wide diversity
of views and experiences. Each workshop lasted for 1.5 days, with speakers typically
on hand for the duration in order to answer questions. Both workshops are described in
more detail below.


4.1      IRC/IRE Network Foresight Awareness Workshop
The first awareness workshop was held at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of
Slovenia (GZS) in Ljubljana in March 2003. The event was organised in collaboration
with the IRC/IRE Network secretariat, which promoted the workshop amongst Network
members and organised the local logistics. This awareness workshop had not been
planned by the EFA project team at the outset but came about as a result of a direct
approach from the IRC/IRE Network to the EFA. The IRC/IRE Network had already
organised a workshop on regional foresight during 2002, where a number of regions had
expressed an interest in the area. The next step for the Network secretariat was to run
an awareness workshop. Technology Centre Prague, which is a member of the IRC/IRE
Network and part of the EFA project team, were instrumental in orchestrating a link-up
of mutual benefit to both the IRC/IRE Network and the EFA. They first made the
suggestion to the IRC/IRE Network secretariat to use the EFA’s knowledge resources
and organised a joint meeting. Accordingly, the EFA agreed to organise the content of
the awareness workshop, with the IRC/IRE Network meeting the expenses of speakers.

The workshop was specifically addressed to those institutions that were considering the
implementation of Foresight exercises in their regions but who felt that they had
insufficient knowledge and experience to do so. The workshop would therefore:
      1. Provide participants with practical methods on how to implement Foresight
         activities;
      2. Present examples of regions that have successfully implemented Foresight
         activities; and
      3. Provide information on the support that regions could obtain from the
         European Commission to implement regional Foresight exercises.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         34                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




Box 1 shows the list of organisations that registered for the event, whilst the workshop
programme is appended in the Annexe. Briefly, the workshop consisted of a series of
presentations, with each presentation followed by group discussion. Presentations
covered what is Foresight, its relevance for regions, and how regional exercises might
be planned and carried out. These presentations all made extensive use of the recently
published Practical Guide to Regional Foresight, copies of which were distributed to
workshop delegates. There were also introductory presentations on Foresight
methodology and on EC-funding opportunities for regional Foresight. Finally, three
case study presentations from the UK, Malta, and Finland were interspersed across the
programme agenda, so as to illustrate the conduct and usefulness of Foresight in
regions. These latter speakers were organised by the IRC/IRE Network secretariat,
whilst the remaining presentations were delivered by the EFA project team and an
official from DG RTD.


Box 1: Organisations registered for the IRC/IRE awareness workshop in Slovenia

                                  City of Ljubljana, Slovenia
                          Malta Council for Science and Technology
                                      RTC North Ltd, UK
                           Tartu Science Park Foundation, Estonia
                        Lathi Region Educational Consortium, Finland
                        Poznan Science and Technology Park, Poland
                      Wroclaw Center for Technology Transfer, Poland
                          The Researchers’ Association of Slovenia
                Fundación Innova - Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Spain
             EEDC - Uusimaa Employment and Economic Development, Finland
                               The Research Council of Norway
                            DG Research - European Commission
                                      EUREKA Secretariat
               National contact point of the 6th Framework Programme, Poland
                             Textile technology journal, Slovenia
                                Institute Jozef Stefan, Slovenia
                               Ministry of Economy of Slovenia
                          ASTER Scienza Tecnologia Impresa, Italy
                  Comissão de Coordenação da Região do Alentejo, Portugal
            Technology Centre of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
                    Applied Research and Communications Fund, Bulgaria
        Foundation Romanian Centre for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises - CRIMM
                     TEP - Hungarian Technology Foresight Programme
                          Institute for Economic Research, Slovenia
                                      BIC Group, Slovakia


By all accounts, the workshop was a success. Some participants immediately registered
for the EFA pilot course on regional foresight (see Chapter 5). Others indicated that
they would be recommending the use of Foresight to their organisations on their return
home. The IRC/IRE Network secretariat circulated an evaluation form amongst
participants, with just under half returning completed questionnaires. Overall, the
workshop was given the highest rating by two-thirds of participants, with the remaining
awarding the second highest rating. The highest rating of all was given to presentations
delivered by the EFA project team, with 90% of responses awarding the highest rating.


European Commission JRC-IPTS                         35                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




The only point on which the workshop was rated just “good” or “average” was the time
allocated to group discussion. Clearly, this is something to which future workshops will
need to pay attention.

As for the organisation of the workshop, two points are worth emphasising here:
    •   Organisation of the workshop by the IRC/IRE Network, with the EFA simply
        providing the content, worked extremely well. The IRC/IRE Network
        secretariat knew what their members wanted and were able to relate this to the
        EFA. Moreover, they were in a good position to promote the workshop amongst
        their members.
    •   The host organisation in Slovenia was in a good position to organise all
        logistical challenges (e.g. hotels, venue, preparation of materials, etc.) on the
        ground. This would have been difficult for the IRC/IRE Network or the EFA to
        organise remotely. The subsequent smooth running of the workshop was
        reflected in the high rating given to the venue and host organisation by
        workshop participants in their evaluation forms.

To conclude, this was a useful event for all concerned that has some valuable lessons
for a sustainable EFA. We will say more on this in Section 4.3.


4.2      JRC Programme Managers Awareness Workshop
During the demand review exercise, JRC-IPTS staff interviewed colleagues in Brussels
and at various JRC facilities. These interviews suggested a significant demand existed
for Foresight training amongst research managers in the JRC (see Chapter 2).
Accordingly, it was decided to begin with the organisation of an awareness workshop
for JRC staff, organised along similar lines to the successful IRC/IRE Network event.
The workshop was held at Ispra in Italy during May 2003. The project team considered
opening up the event to research managers from research institutes in the Member
States, but this was not followed up because (a) it was judged to require a significant
amount of marketing and (b) there already seemed to be a lot of interest from the JRC.
As we will see, this was probably a mistake.

As in the IRC/IRE workshop, the objective of the JRC event was to raise awareness of
the usefulness of Foresight. Accordingly, the workshop programme (see Annexe)
included introductions on why Foresight is used in S&T planning and its limitations, a
basic introduction on methods, and a presentation on tips and pointers for using the
results of Foresight exercises. These presentations were delivered by the EFA project
team. However, the mainstay of the workshop was four case study presentations that
highlighted the uses of Foresight in informing a range of S&T planning issues,
including S&T priority-setting, institutional reform, and science and society relations.
These speakers were from outside the EFA project team and were nominated by JRC-
IPTS and the project Operating Agent. Finally, the programme was rounded off with a
group discussion on how JRC research managers might themselves use Foresight.

Unfortunately, this workshop was not as successful as the IRC/IRE event. The main
problem was poor attendance – only ten people participated, and this number was often
lower as people came and went from their labs and offices on site. The small number of
participants was extremely disappointing and was made worse by the large size of the


European Commission JRC-IPTS                         36                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




room. This meant that any sort of constructive group dynamic was absent. Moreover, it
was clear that some participants did not want to be part of the workshop but were
attending more out of duty than interest.

Against this backdrop, some extremely good presentations were delivered by guest
speakers covering real examples of S&T Foresight. But from the workshop evaluation
that we carried out (the evaluation form is appended to the Annexe), some people were
critical of the emphasis upon case studies. Instead, they would have preferred greater
elaboration and debate on the conceptual and scientific underpinnings of Foresight.
This ran contrary to our expectations and previous training experiences, but with
hindsight should not be surprising. After all, we were dealing with scientists, who by
nature tend to be questioning and even suspicious of “craft-activities” like Foresight.
Naturally, they wanted to discuss the scientific basis of Foresight and its methods. By
contrast, public policy makers and business people are more interested in
demonstrations that Foresight works and prefer to be told about success (and failure)
stories. These differences demonstrate that more thought needs to be given to the target
audience when designing awareness and training programmes and that formulaic “one-
size-fits-all” approaches are likely to encounter problems.

A further criticism highlighted by a few participants concerned the format of the
workshop, which was lecture based with opportunities for questions and answers after
each presentation. The format was criticised as being staid and dull, an unsurprising
perception if interest in the subject area is largely absent. But it would be unfair and
irresponsible of us to simply dismiss these criticisms as views from the uninterested.
Indeed, amongst the workshop teachers, there was a feeling that we needed to be more
imaginative in getting our message across. More dynamic and varied teaching modes
are no doubt required, especially participative learning modes with their greater scope
for “learning by doing” and “learning through interaction”. The project team always
understood the need for such modes of teaching in Foresight courses – see Chapter 5 for
evidence of this – but had failed to appreciate their importance for the awareness
workshops. Moreover, inspirational speakers capable of connecting Foresight to the
“big questions” of the day, as well as to the more parochial concerns of a workshop
audience, are probably needed to make a lasting impression. In other words, awareness
workshops should be as much about marketing Foresight as they are about informing of
its principles and methods.

There were also other problems. It seems that the basic knowledge of Foresight
amongst participants varied, with the result that some people found the workshop too
basic whilst others found it too advanced. This is an all too familiar problem that we
will say more about in Chapter 5. Course materials were distributed to participants at
the time of the workshop, but some suggested that they should have been made
available beforehand. The course handouts were also of unsatisfactory quality (six
slides to the page), making the slides difficult to read on paper. This was a result of
insufficient communications between the project team and administrative support staff
at Ispra, on which we will say more in Chapter 5.

On the positive side, some participants indicated an interest in short, more focused
courses on particular methods, e.g. scenario planning, technology road mapping, etc.
But even this was counterbalanced by a somewhat insular debate on the role of JRC-
IPTS within the wider JRC and questioning of the need for Ispra people to be involved



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         37                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




in organising their own Foresight studies. Nevertheless, this second workshop was a
useful learning experience for the project team, highlighting a number of issues that will
need further thought and reflection.


4.3      Recommendations
With just these two workshop experiences, it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions
for future EFA activities in this area. However, both workshops highlight several issues
for further consideration:
    •   Currently, awareness raising activities are largely confined to the dissemination
        of Foresight guides,3 the organisation of conferences by the European
        Commission,4 and the dissemination of electronic newsletters.5             Some
        awareness-raising workshops have been organised at national level, e.g. by the
        International Observatory for Regional Foresight (OIPR) in France, by the
        newly established Irish Futures Academy, and by Z_punkt in Germany. Any
        other workshop activities tend to be organised within the remit of a national or
        regional Foresight exercise. This picture suggests that “immersive” awareness-
        raising, such as that associated with workshops, is rather patchy across Europe.
        A niche may therefore exist for the EFA (possibly in collaboration with other
        groups) to organise events like the workshops described in this chapter.
    •   The mix of speakers, both from within and outside the project team, was a
        definite positive. A future EFA should be able to draw upon a pool of speakers
        from across Europe and should not rely upon just a chosen few.
    •   The focus upon the principles of Foresight together with case study illustrations
        is broadly correct, but the balance between both should be reviewed in
        accordance with the likely interest of the target audience.
    •   More time should be given to discussion and debate – participants should not be
        overly bombarded with new information without an opportunity to reflect upon
        its use in their own setting. In this respect, further consideration needs to be
        given to designing more imaginative workshop approaches, possibly using
        problem-based learning, gaming, and other participative techniques commonly
        found in management training.
    •   Related to the previous point, it seems that awareness-raising is more about
        marketing than it is about academic-style presentations. Future workshops
        should be delivered with this point in mind.
    •   The apparent interest from the JRC in Foresight training, as indicated by the
        demand review, quickly evaporated once people were invited to a workshop.
        The JRC’s demand may have been illusionary, possibly on account of the EFA
        project team’s optimism, but probably because what people say and then what
        they do are often two different things. In future, any demand review should be
        more sophisticated and should be coupled with a commitment from the target
        community to take-up the training provision offered. The IRC/IRE Network
        workshop is a good example of how such commitment can result in a successful

3
  For example, see the EC’s Practical Guide to Regional Foresight, available at XXXX
4
  For example, SEVILLE, BRUSSELS, and IOANNINA conferences (REFs)
5
  Give SHAPING TOMORROW, FRENCH NETWORK & Z-PUNKT EXAMPLES WITH REFS.



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         38                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




        outcome. The EFA should therefore consider limiting its awareness-raising (and
        possibly its training) activities to those situations where an “intermediary” body,
        such as the IRC/IRE Network secretariat, already knows what it wants and can
        muster the interest of its community. In this way, the risks associated with
        organising and delivering workshops can be shared between the EFA and the
        intermediary body.
    •   Consideration should be given to organising courses that mix levels of
        governance. For example, it would have been interesting and enriching for JRC
        research managers to learn about foresight together with their national level
        counterparts. Such joint events could also make a small contribution to the
        realisation of the European Research Area (ERA).
    •   It is essential that those responsible for workshop logistics are based “on the
        ground”, so that they can deal with the mundane tasks associated with running
        successful events, as well as any mishaps. This was achieved in Slovenia but
        was partly absent at Ispra, where the project team had to operate in a foreign
        environment with limited local support.
    •   It is strongly advised not to hold awareness raising or training workshops in the
        place of people’s work, since the temptation is all too great for participants to
        return to the office to deal with something ‘urgent’ (as happened at Ispra).

To reiterate, these recommendations are informative rather than being definitive.
Moreover, they should be read in conjunction with the recommendations from Chapter
5, which reflect upon the conduct of the EFA training course on regional foresight.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         39                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




5.       Regional Foresight Training Course


The main activity of, and indeed, the original rationale for establishing the EFA was to
pilot a pan-European Foresight training course. With this in mind, a three-day course
was organised at Ispra in Italy during May 2003, to run immediately after the JRC
awareness-raising workshop. The course was focused on regional foresight, which was
considered by the project team to be an area of emerging importance with little existing
training provision. Moreover, the project team hoped that the earlier IRC/IRE Network
awareness-raising workshop would generate some interest in the course. This was in
fact the case, with a few participants attending both the workshop and the course. The
objective of the course was to provide an intensive, practically-oriented introduction to
regional Foresight methods that would be useful for those thinking about organising and
managing Foresight activities in their own regions. Accordingly, the course was
targeted at the beginner-intermediary level. Preparation for and delivery of the course
are described in more detail below, followed by a list of recommendations for future
courses.


5.1      Preparation for the course
Several tasks had to be carried out to make the course a reality. Firstly, the course
content had to be scoped by the project team. Using the results of the demand review,
together with the project team’s own knowledge of the regional Foresight scene, it was
decided to conduct a methodology course, with plenty of practical work included. From
this starting point, a preliminary programme was drafted and potential speakers
identified. The EFA project team delivered the majority of sessions, with just a few
outside speakers brought in on particular topics.

Our next task was on how to market the course. In this respect, the IRC/IRE Network
agreed to disseminate the course flyer (see Annexe). The flyer was also distributed via
e-mail by JRC-IPTS to participants of the Spanish Presidency Foresight Conference
held in Seville during May 2002. The project team was also tasked with promoting the
course within their own countries and across any networks of which they were
members. Finally, the flyer and preliminary programme were hosted on the EFA web
site as well as the web sites of some members of the project team.

The project team decided that the course should essentially be free, with just a nominal
95 euros fee charged to cover lunches, dinner and airport transfers. There was some
debate over the wisdom of offering a free Foresight course, especially as an emerging
market already exists for Foresight executive education (see Chapter 3). The fear was
that such a course could distort this emerging market as well as set a dangerous
precedent in raising expectations of future free courses. However, the experimental and
pilot status of the course meant that it would be difficult to charge a fee. Moreover, no
mechanism exists for the ESTO network to generate its own income from such
activities. It was therefore more convenient not to charge for the course but instead to
ask for a nominal fee to cover expenses.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         40                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




The interest in the course was overwhelming, with around sixty applications received
for just thirty places. About half the applications came from Candidate Countries, no
doubt on account of (a) the course costing only 95 euros and (b) the availability of
fifteen travel and subsistence grants from the JRC-IPTS. Other applications came
mostly from southern Europe, especially Italy (no doubt because the course was being
held at Ispra). Disappointingly, no applications were received from Germany or France,
just one application came from the UK, and Northwest Europe in general was under-
represented. We suspect that more vigorous marketing of the course in these countries
would have generated greater interest, but as it was, there was already too much interest
from other countries to warrant any proactive marketing strategy.


Box 2: Organisations registered for the regional Foresight training workshop

                     Institute of Geography, University of Milano, Italy
                              CARTIF Technology Centre, Spain
                        Ministry of Economy and Transport, Hungary
                                   Provincia di Milano, Italy
              Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Universita di Udine, Italy
                                  Atlantis Consulting, Greece
                        Poznan Science and Technology Park, Poland
         National Institute for Research and Development in Informatics, Romania
                         Malta Council for Science and Technology
                   Institute for Forecasting, Slovak Academy of Sciences
            Ministry of Scientific Research and Information Technology, Poland
  The Wroclaw Centre for Technology Transfer, Wroclaw University of Technology, Poland
        Foresight Unit of the Public Company Desarrollo Agrario y Pesquero, Spain
               General Foundation of the Autonomous University of Madrid
                               AgroBioInstitute, Sofia, Bulgaria
                                      LOGOTECH, Greece
         Innova Foundation - Ciudad Politecnica de la Innovacion, Valencia, Spain
                Border, Midland and Western Regional Assembly, Ireland
                      Consorzio per I'AREA di Ricerca di Trieste, Italy
                                      VINNOVA, Sweden
                                       META Group, Italy
                             EC BREC/IBMER, Warsaw, Poland
                      Technology Development Foundation of Turkey
                                Advantage West Midlands, UK
      Budapest University of Economic Sciences and Public Administration, Hungary
                              Institute of Baltic Studies, Estonia
                                       University of Latvia
                           Institute of Lithuanian Scientific Society
                                    Fondazione Roselli, Italy
                          Flemish Science Policy Council, Belgium
                                       TUBITAK, Turkey


Selection of participants was not an easy task. Indeed, we considered running two
courses in parallel, with speakers moving from one course to the other with their
presentations. But this was considered to be too ambitious, especially for a pilot course,
and the idea was quickly abandoned. Instead, we decided to increase the number to 35




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         41                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




so as to disappoint as few people as possible. Selection was based upon the following
criteria:
    (a) Country of origin, at least in the case of Candidate Countries, where, for largely
        political reasons, we sought to ensure that each Candidate Country that
        submitted applications should have at least one accepted;
    (b) Institutional origin, where we wanted only those people who were involved in
        regional development; and
    (c) Previous knowledge and experience of Foresight, where we wanted those people
        who had not already undergone Foresight training.

These criteria worked reasonably well – the Operating Agent and JRC-IPTS
independently drew up application shortlists that were almost identical, demonstrating
the robustness of our approach. One or two individuals from Candidate Countries were
invited to attend that might not otherwise have been. This was on account of them
being the only application from that particular country. Otherwise, most participants
satisfied the criteria set out in (b) and (c).

As the course was being held in Ispra, it was necessary for the project team to establish
good links with local administrative staff. As part of the JRC, JRC-IPTS took the lead
in coordinating these links, jointly organising venue, hotels, lunches, dinners, and
transportation with their Ispra counterparts. This coordination was undoubtedly aided
by the fact that the Ispra administrator was a previous employee of JRC-IPTS.
Moreover, one member of the JRC-IPTS project team had previously worked in Ispra
and was from the region, again smoothing the path to sound coordination.

Finally, once the programme was finalised and speakers had agreed to participate,
presentations and practical sessions had to be formulated and coordinated. Each
speaker was given some instructions on the time they had available, the level at which
their presentations had to be pitched, and some ideas on the possible content of their
talks. Responsibility for all practical sessions was shared between two course teachers,
the idea being that two heads are better than one. Moreover, it was rightly anticipated
that course participants would need to be split into groups for practical work – two
coordinators for each practical session would therefore be a useful asset. One idea for
the practical sessions was that they should be linked, with an initial brainstorming
session on Day 1 providing the inputs for the scenario exercise on Day 2. This idea was
not adopted, however, since it was feared that a poor session on Day 1 could jeopardise
the success of the scenario exercise on Day 2. Instead, the practical sessions were
conducted as stand-alone exercises.

Presentations were supposed to be submitted to the Operating Agent 10 days prior to the
course. This was to check their overall suitability and to avoid any undue overlap with
other presentations. Unfortunately, just two-thirds of the presentations were submitted
prior to the start of the course, and some of these came only a few days before.
Fortunately, most presentations were suitably pitched with just a couple of exceptions
where too much detail was given or things were insufficiently explained. This
successful outcome reflected the extensive presentation experience of most of the
speakers. Nevertheless, the Operating Agent should have paid more attention to timely
delivery of presentations and should have been more demanding of his colleagues. The



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         42                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




subsequent delays meant that training packs could not be fully prepared before the
course started, with participants only receiving all training materials half-way through
the first day.

Preparation for the practical sessions was similarly dogged by a “last minute culture”
that surrounded some aspects of the course’s organisation. As already indicated, two
course teachers were responsible for each practical session, but little, if any, contact, let
alone coordination, seemed to take place between some of these individuals. Again, the
Operating Agent could have assumed a more demanding role here and should have
harangued those who were responsible.


5.2      Delivering the course
As already stated, the course lasted for three days, with a mixture of presentations and
practical sessions focused mostly upon Foresight methods. The main exceptions were
the first half-day, which focused upon introductory presentations on rationales for and
examples of regional Foresight, and the last day of the course, where Foresight
implementation and multi-level Foresight were discussed. The methods covered by
presentations included environmental scanning, trend analysis, brainstorming and other
creative methods, Delphi, SMIC, expert panels, and scenarios. Presentations were
delivered in this order since this represents a possible (and perhaps even typical)
sequence in real life Foresight exercises. All presentations were filmed and later made
available to course participants on DVD.

The account that follows is based upon participants’ feedback through evaluation forms
and a group discussion at the course end. In addition, teachers from the project team
contributed candid views on what worked and what did not. They also made
suggestions on how things could be improved next time around. Overall, the course
was judged to be a major success. Evaluation ratings by participants ranged between
“good” to “excellent” on all aspects of the course. Participants were clearly motivated
to learn and brought much energy and enthusiasm with them to the course. The
beautiful surroundings and well-organised extra-curricular activities, neither of which
should be underestimated, also contributed to a good and open atmosphere.

Inevitably, some presentations were better than others. Some were too long, whilst
others were too ambitious in the time available. There were probably too many
presentations given the relatively short duration of the course, leaving insufficient time
for practical work. On a positive note, the presentations fitted together reasonably well
despite minimal coordination beforehand.           Again, this is testimony to the
professionalism of the speakers, as well as to coherence in the overall design of the
course, which gave a sense of what was expected from speakers. Speakers are also
well-known to one another, at least in most cases, and this helped to foster a strong team
spirit.

There were three main phases of practical work, covering causal-layered analysis (Day
1), scenario development (Day 2), and the so-called “methods jigsaw” (Day 3). The
practical work was well regarded by course participants, but was something of a
nightmare at times for the course teachers. Three main problems can be identified:




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         43                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




      1. Insufficient preparation beforehand, which affected all of the practical sessions
         to a greater or lesser degree. The problem was most acute in the first practical
         session – on causal layered analysis – since it was an approach that most
         teachers were unfamiliar with. A note explaining the approach and setting out
         the steps for the practical group work was circulated amongst teachers the
         evening before. But more briefing was required. Consequently, most course
         teachers, acting as group facilitators, followed procedures that they knew best –
         most notably traditional brainstorming formats – with little regard for the
         practical session instructions. Understandably, this led to some confusion
         amongst course participants.
      2. Insufficient time for participants to fully appreciate the method they were
         working with. The relative lack of time is a common problem in all such
         practical exercises, especially when participants find an exercise stimulating.
         The problem was most acute for the “methods jigsaw” exercise, where far too
         little time was provided for a subject of great importance and interest to
         participants. With hindsight, the course could have been more focused on a
         smaller selection of methods, which would have meant less presentations and
         more time for practical work. It could also have been longer in duration,
         perhaps as long as five days, which would have made it comparable to the
         recent UNIDO course on methods where similar presentations and practical
         sessions were organised.
      3. The large size of the group meant that four breakout groups had to be formed
         for each practical session. This became a challenge when four experienced
         facilitators were required to lead the groups. With 4-5 teachers on hand during
         the whole of the course, the project team was able to manage, but it did mean
         some teachers having to lead some sessions on methods that they were not
         altogether familiar with.

Although we tried to invite only those people who had not undergone Foresight training
previously, some people slipped through the net. Moreover, even some of those who
had not undergone training had, nevertheless, extensive knowledge and sometimes
experience of Foresight. Taken together with the absolute beginners, this meant that we
had a rather mixed-ability group of participants with differing training needs and a
variety of expectations for the course. This might be avoided in future if a suite of
courses is offered. This would allow people to choose the course most suited to their
training needs. It would also discourage them from taking up any training being offered
for fear that nothing else will be offered in the future.

It was also interesting to note one particular common expectation amongst some
participants, irrespective of their Foresight background: a belief that they would be
experts in using Foresight methods in light of their course training. By the end of the
course, these people openly acknowledged that this was an unrealistic expectation – as
one participant put it, “In any other field, it would be unrealistic to expect to be an
expert after just three days training. Why should Foresight be any different?” A wide-
ranging course like the one organised could only introduce the main methods and was
of insufficient duration to do more than this. Books, practical hands-on experience,
coaching, and training courses dedicated to a single method (e.g. scenarios) could be
suitable follow-up activity that would develop skills further.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         44                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




All in all, there was a lot to squeeze in, perhaps too much. This raises the question that
perhaps we tried to do too much in too little time. Whilst the experience was enjoyable,
it was also exhausting, especially for JRC-IPTS staff and the Operating Agent, coming
on the heels of the earlier JRC awareness-raising workshop.

As for course logistics, these were okay considering nobody was home-based. But
administrative support was sometimes difficult to secure and unfamiliarity with local
services, such as web access and photocopying, was a problem on occasion.
Negotiating the security ring-fence around Ispra also led to delays, especially on the
first day with so many passports to register at the main gates. The chief logistical
problem, however, concerned the hotel accommodation of participants, who were
distributed across three hotels in two different villages several kilometres apart. This
partially hampered attempts at building a team spirit amongst participants, although
organised evening events helped to alleviate this problem.


5.3      Recommendations
Whilst the course was widely considered to be successful, a number of issues emerged
that call for further attention and action:
    •   There are several mundane tasks associated with the organisation of training
        courses, such as application processing, payment of teachers’ fees, generation
        and distribution of marketing material, etc. These require the attention of
        professional administrators rather than researchers or teachers, who are better
        used for other tasks, e.g. developing course content, etc. A permanent and
        sustainable EFA should therefore employ the skills of an administrator to
        smoothly manage such processes and deliverables.
    •   Courses should be hosted by an institution active in the EFA rather than at a
        “neutral” venue where logistics may be more challenging to handle.
    •   Greater use needs to be made of existing channels when disseminating
        information on courses. The level of interest in northern Europe was extremely
        low, at least partly on account of poor information distribution. An
        administrator will help with this task, but members of the EFA also have
        responsibilities that need to be taken seriously.
    •   Whilst a team spirit amongst teachers emerged during the course, this needed to
        be built into the preparatory phase as well. This was perhaps too much to expect
        from a pilot, but in the future, better leadership and coordination, together with
        timely preparation of materials, will be essential.
    •   Regarding course materials, these should be made available to course
        participants at least one-week prior to the course being held.
    •   Shorter, snappier presentations should be used wherever possible. This demands
        the use of (1) versatile people with wide experience that can be deployed to
        cover many subjects succinctly in any one course; and (2) imaginative use of
        ICTs, where some speakers can be “beamed in” remotely using video-
        conference facilities.
    •   In general, material should be delivered in much more imaginative ways, using
        problem-based learning, gaming, humour, etc. Moreover, practical sessions



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         45                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




        need to be well prepared beforehand, with facilitators made comfortable with the
        task at hand. Practical sessions should be stimulating and fun for participants to
        do.
    •   Wherever possible, the EFA should continue to film its courses. This provides a
        useful resource that can be drawn upon at a later date (by participants and
        teachers alike) and is also a potentially useful tool for teachers to improve their
        teaching style.
    •   We must also acknowledge the limitations of any training courses. What some
        course participants really needed were “mentors” who could “coach” them
        through their Foresight processes, not more training. The EFA could of course
        offer other services to fulfil this role – see Chapter 7 for discussion of these
        options.
    •   Courses need to be better targeted. There was a mix of people attending the
        course with differing experiences and expectations. Whilst to some extent this is
        virtually inevitable, offering a suite of courses in the future will provide scope
        for improved targeting.
    •   Further courses should be developed focusing upon methods, e.g. scenario
        workshops (hands-on); implementing Foresight; use of participatory methods in
        Foresight; use of computer tools (web, electronic meeting rooms, decision
        support, etc.); and “Masterclass” sessions for existing practitioners.
        Consideration should also be given to courses focused upon content, where
        participants will be invited to use the outputs from Foresight and Futures
        Studies.
    •   The issue of course fees needs to be studied more closely to avoid market
        distortion.
    •   Finally, the EFA should continue to take seriously the importance of creating a
        positive ambience around training courses. Dinners and an evening boat trip
        successfully contributed to the development of a positive group dynamic and to
        the overall enjoyment of the Ispra course.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         46                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




6.         The ‘Foresight Reader’ and EFA web site


In this chapter, we present the ‘Foresight Reader’ developed by the project team. We
also describe the development of the EFA web site and summarise other promotional
activities in support of the EFA.


6.1        The Foresight Reader
In addition to piloting awareness-raising workshops and a Foresight methods course, the
project team was committed to producing a teaching aid in the form of a Reader. This
was intended to provide an intermediate level introduction to Foresight, drawing upon
the extensive inside knowledge of the project team.




                            A Foresight Reader
                            First edition




                            General Editors
                            Rémi Barré
                            Kerstin Cuhls
                            Jari Kaivo-oja
                            Michael Keenan
                            Karel Klusacek
                            Graham May
                            Ian Miles
                            Rafael Popper
                            Fabiana Scapolo
                            Mario Zappacosta




A few guides for Foresight have recently been developed6 and it was important for the
Reader not to duplicate these. Accordingly, it was decided that the Reader should be a
collection of excerpts and summaries of existing issues and experiences in Foresight.

6
    REFS



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         47                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




This “montage” approach also had the advantage of taking less time to put together,
since writing a professional textbook from scratch would have taken up far more time
than the project budget could allow. The Reader has been structured along the lines
shown in Box 3.

                   Box 3: Outline chapters of the EFA Foresight Reader
1. Why is Foresight Relevant?
2. Historical and Epistemological Foundations of Foresight
3. Foresight Activities Today
4. Methods Used in Foresight
5. Practical Lessons for Managing and Organising Foresight Processes
6. Use and Outcomes of Foresight
7. Foresight in Action: Some Illustrative Examples


Plans are afoot to publish the Reader in hard-copy format, but for the moment, it is only
available electronically on the EFA web site.


6.2      www.jrc.es/projects/foresightacademy - EFA online
Hosted by the JRC-IPTS, the project web site was developed primarily as a tool for
making available information on forthcoming events (descriptions, registration forms,
etc.). The front page is shown below.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         48                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




As the project progressed, more attention was paid to using the web site as a tool for
disseminating presentations delivered at EFA events. Also taking seriously its potential
role as a place of exchange between existing Foresight trainers, the site developed links
to other Foresight training provision (see below). Links have also been made to existing
Foresight exercises and a selection of Foresight research projects.

At the time of writing, much of the site is still under construction. Moreover, no
attempt has been made to encourage project partners or others to mirror the site on their
own web pages. Thus, the site has so far been used almost exclusively by project
partners and event participants. Clearly, much greater potential exists for developing
the web site but this must now wait for decisions to be made on the future of the EFA.




6.3      Other promotional activities
The chief promotional activity undertaken by the project team was the demand review
in October 2002. This generated a lot of interest in the EFA, both within Europe and
beyond. The pilot status of the project and its rather limited remit has, however, meant
it has been difficult to usefully build upon this interest. If and when a decision is taken
to go-ahead with a permanent EFA, this interest could probably be reignited with little
effort.

The other main activity undertaken within the boundaries of the project concerned a
promotional / consultation workshop at the Greek Presidency Foresight Conference at
Ioannina in May 2003. Here, the Operating Agent, supported by several project team
members, presented the EFA’s current activities and asked for ideas on how the concept
could be brought forwards. Some of the views expressed by those attending the




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         49                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




workshop have been incorporated into Chapter 7 of this report, where we present future
options for the development of a permanent and sustainable EFA.

The Operating Agent also presented the EFA at a poster session at the UNIDO
Foresight Summit in Budapest in March 2003. More recently, he presented the EFA at
a Foresight conference in Colombia, where there is much interest in reproducing the
EFA idea for Latin America.


6.4      Recommendations
A future EFA should consider taking the following actions:
    •   The concept behind the Reader should be developed further, with additional
        pedagogical materials generated in support of teaching activities.
    •   The authors of the first edition of the Reader should consider collaboration on
        developing a Foresight textbook.
    •   The EFA web site should be extensively revamped, with more links and more
        support to prospective practitioners and users of Foresight. Depending on the
        future shape and activities of the EFA, the web site could also be an essential
        point for delivery of online distance learning courses.
    •   It is important for the EFA and its web site to complement DG RTD’s planned
        Foresight Mapping project and not to duplicate these efforts. A clear division of
        labour should be agreed upon and mutually beneficial arrangements put in place.
    •   Wherever possible, the EFA should take advantage of existing events and
        infrastructures in delivering its message and programmes.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         50                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




7.       European Foresight Academy: Future Options


In this final chapter, the possibilities for establishing a sustainable European Foresight
Academy on a permanent basis are considered. To begin, we reflect upon the conduct
of the pilot study as a whole, synthesising and summarising the lessons that have been
learnt.

Secondly, the range of training needs and the possible activities to meet those needs are
set out. In other words, we consider the content of the EFA’s programme if it were to
become a sustainable Academy. Some of this ground has been covered already in
Chapter 2, but here, we organise it into a number of themes, including activities directed
at awareness-raising and embedment, production of training materials, coaching
services, and methodology development, amongst others.

The third part of the chapter is given over to discussion of how the EFA could operate –
how it could be organised, how it could be managed, and how it could be funded. In
this regard, we present five scenarios that summarise different, yet plausible, structures
for the EFA. At no point do we express a preference for one model over another.
Instead, we leave it to the Foresight “community” and prospective sponsors of the EFA
to make their own choices.

In the final section, we provide some summary conclusions.


7.1      What have we learnt from this pilot study?
The main lessons to emerge from the project have come from two sources: (1) the
demand and supply reviews; and (2) the three pilot events.

Taking the reviews first, the demand study showed an overwhelming interest in training
and other support provision, as well as a substantial level of backing for the permanent
establishment of the EFA. Raising awareness of Foresight and providing guidance on
using its results were the most popular demands. Clearly, these need not be achieved
through training workshops alone – newsletters, web sites, and other publications can
help in this regard. Indeed, an interesting result was the call for initiatives other than
training courses. Ideas included methodological development, forums for the exchange
of experiences and good practice, and the establishment of the EFA as a “nucleus of
reference” (case studies, standards, practitioners’ database, etc.). Concerns were raised
that the EFA should not homogenise Foresight practice across Europe – diversity was a
positive thing and therefore welcome. The issue of subsidiarity was also touched upon,
if somewhat indirectly, where a number of people envisaged the EFA as a decentralised
federation of training centres across the EU Member States. We will return to this idea
below.

The supply review showed a rather patchy picture of training provision, though at the
same time, a fast-evolving one. Much of the current training provision is relatively
new, especially in the executive market, with more centres setting up courses all the



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         51                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




time. Much training is also relatively invisible and ad hoc, being delivered by private
consultants to companies and public organisations.

The pilot events were, on the whole, a resounding success. A number of lessons also
emerged for future reference, which have already been set out in detail in Chapter 4 and
Chapter 5. They included the need for more imaginative means of transfer of
knowledge (for example, using ICTs, gaming and simulations, and problem-based
learning), better targeting and marketing of courses, the need for a wide variety of
course offerings, the importance of a mix of speakers, and the need for strong
coordination and leadership of training programmes. The issue of training course fees
remains unresolved – again, we will discuss this below when we consider future
funding options for the EFA.

Unfortunately, it was not possible to use the pilot study to test the other demands
articulated in the demand review, e.g. the issue of implications of Foresight results in
different policy areas. The project had a limited budget that was largely consumed by
the training course and awareness-raising events. Whether we should have aimed to test
the concept of delivering a training course is an open question, not least since similar
courses have been provided by other organisations in Europe, e.g. PREST, UNIDO, etc.
for some years now and are clearly viable. In our defence, we would add that the
project was originally conceived to test and develop ESTO competencies to meet the
Foresight capacity-building challenge facing Europe. A jointly-organised training
course was therefore a natural choice for the project to pilot.

Clearly, if the pilot could have had a wider remit to test the other suggestions
highlighted in the demand review, then we would have learnt even more than we have
already. As it is, we have demonstrated that the delivery of Foresight training courses is
a viable activity at European level and that European Foresight centres can work
together in a constructive and complementary manner under the umbrella of the EFA.
With this conclusion in mind, we will now turn our attention to consideration of the
future content of the EFA’s programme and the organisational structure that it might
assume.


7.2      Content – what sorts of things could a future EFA do?
Given the bounded remit of the pilot study, its results add little to the process of sorting
through the suggestions made in Chapter 2. To recall, the possible sorts of training that
the EFA could offer are summarised in Box 3. There is, of course, no principled reason
why the EFA could not offer the full suite of suggestions in Box 3. The main barrier to
such an undertaking would be financial resources and political will, as well as practical
and intellectual interest in such a programme. In this regard, it is worth perhaps
recalling the potential targets of Foresight capacity-building activities. These include:
    •    Senior decision makers (at least Director level)
    •   Strategy departments in public and private sector organisations, e.g. ministries,
        regional development agencies, corporations, etc.
    •    Public administrators and bureaucrats (EU, national, regional, local levels)
    •    Prospective managers of Foresight




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         52                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




    •    Foresight practitioners and theoreticians
    •    Consultants (as change agents)
    •    EU funding communities, so that they understand how Foresight can be used
    •    Scientists and other professionals
    •    NGOs and other lobbyists
    •    Intermediary bodies, e.g. trade associations, charities, etc.
    •    Opinion leaders (media, politicians, authors, popular culture, etc.)
    •    University students
    •    School children and youth

We have already rehearsed the potential benefits to be had by many of these groups as a
consequence of Foresight training or awareness, and these will not be reiterated here
(see Chapter 2).

            Box 3: Suggestions on type of training course to be offered by the EFA
1. Awareness-raising workshops, directed primarily at policy makers, but also directed at
   scientists and EU project proposal writers, e.g. those intending to submit Integrated Project
   proposals under FP6
2. Foresight methods ‘toolbox’ training, covering some of the main methods
3. Training courses focused upon state-of-the-art Foresight methods, including use of ICTs in
   Foresight
4. Training in the management and organisation of Foresight exercises, similar to the courses
   offered by PREST and UNIDO (see Chapter 3)
5. Courses on how to use (absorb) Foresight results for successful implementation outcomes
6. In addition, workshops where organisations can discuss the implications of Foresight results
   for their own policy areas, business sectors, etc.
7. Wider courses, for instance, directed at a particular domain area (e.g. urban regeneration) or
   issue (e.g. the new governance of science), with Foresight embedded within them
8. Courses for explicitly multiplying Foresight practice through the training of trainers (e.g.
   staff in business support programmes) and teachers (e.g. high school teachers)
9. University courses, ranging from individual modules embedded in other courses through to
   full Masters programmes
10. Incorporation into school and college curricula
11. Workshops, rather than training courses (or conferences, where there is rarely any
    intimacy), where practitioners and theoreticians can meet to share ideas and experiences




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         53                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




Short Courses on Methods and Exercise Organisation
Some of the suggestions shown in Box 3 are easier to meet than others. Methods
training and short courses on the management and organisation of Foresight are already
well established, as revealed by our supply review (see Chapter 3). The main issue here
is their concentration in just a few centres in Europe. In the short-term, the EFA could
seek to fill this void through organising its own courses, as happened in the pilot study.
However, in the medium-long term, it could look to facilitate a wider distribution of
training centres across Europe. This might involve training trainers, building a mutual
support network for training centres, and developing training materials for wide use.


Awareness Raising
A key demand from practitioners and from those keen on organising their own
Foresight activities is the need for awareness-raising. This is more complicated than it
first seems. To begin with, awareness-raising means different things. It can refer to the
activity of informing institutions of the results from Foresight exercises, and giving
them guidelines on how the results can be utilised. In such cases, raw data typically
needs to be available (it is often little use giving organisations a list of priorities to work
with). But the most common understanding of awareness-raising is concerned with
informing decision makers of Foresight’s role in society and its relevance to their
organisations. Without an appreciation of Foresight’s benefits, existing and would-be
practitioners face an uphill struggle in getting their Foresight plans accepted. As we
have already said, workshops are one medium for doing this, but there are also many
others. Moreover, a key lesson from our pilot study has been the advantage in
organising awareness workshops with intermediaries who can articulate the needs of the
organisations they represent and enrol them into the awareness-raising process.


Foresight Embedment
Linked to the issue of awareness-raising is the desire to better embed Foresight in our
societies. Recalling the quote cited in Chapter 2, the challenge of getting organisations
to use Foresight is more than a matter of simply teaching a few methods to middle
managers. It requires a deeper understanding of how we shape our futures and a state-
of-mind that reviews and reassesses the day-to-day assumptions upon which we act.
Embedment therefore refers to the adoption of Foresight ideas and practices in
institutional routines across the whole of society. Awareness-raising has a role here, but
there are also training issues. A number of Member States have recognised this and, for
example, have sought to train Foresight trainers. These have the potential to be
‘multipliers’ of Foresight thinking and practice in many different settings. Box 4 shows
an example from the UK, which is focused upon SME support services. Another
example is provided by the work of project partner Fraunhofer-ISI, which has been
involved in training school teachers in the use of Foresight approaches that can then be
deployed in the classroom.

Further embedment demands are focused upon university courses and school and
college curricula. These demands were most strongly articulated by existing
practitioners, and especially those from the Futures Studies tradition. Futures Studies
has a long history of trying to get recognition as a serious academic field, especially in
universities. The World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) – the professional



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         54                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




association for futurists (see Box 10 below) – has been at the forefront of such efforts
(for example, it is currently trying to establish a global Masters programme in Futures
Studies). Overall, there has been some success, but most futurists would acknowledge
that much still remains to be done. According to futurists, the main problem is the
conservativeness of universities, particularly in continental Europe, and any successes
are normally attributable to the brilliance and tenacity of the individuals involved.


                 Box 4: “Your Future in Business” Foresight Training Toolkit
“Your Future in Business” is a Foresight training toolkit offered to business facilitators and
client executives by five centres across the United Kingdom. According to one training
provider, the Centre for Competitiveness in Northern Ireland, “The Foresight Toolkit exists to
help private, public and voluntary organisations become more forward-looking, to create
exciting visions for the future and then set about fulfilling them. (…) The Toolkit is designed to
help those involved with the delivery of any aspect of business support and improvement to
introduce foresight techniques to their clients.” Eight modules are available, covering: (1) an
introduction to foresight; (2) vision; (3) setting and achieving stretch goals; (4) SWOT and
STEEP analysis; (5) ideas; (6) decisions and strategy; (7) strategic planning; and (8) next steps.
The Toolkit and training in its use have been available since 2001.


As for school and college curricula, again, Futures Studies has been active in promoting
itself in this sphere for some time now. The recent interest in Foresight has also seen
the launch of new initiatives to introduce future-oriented courses onto curricula. For
example, the authors are casually aware of initiatives in the UK, Germany, Sweden and
Malta, and no doubt there are others in other countries.

The pilot study did not attempt to address directly the issue of embedment, mostly on
account of the time and resources available. Clearly, embedment is a long-term goal,
with the whole gamut of training, newsletters, discussion forums, and Foresight
exercises themselves contributing to its realisation. We have seen that other
organisations, mostly from the Futures Studies tradition, have tried to take up this
challenge directly but have found it extremely difficult to make significant progress.
We therefore recommend that a review of these efforts be conducted before the EFA
embarks upon any explicit embedment promotion activities.


Methodology Development
Another area identified by the demand review was the need for methodology
development in Foresight. Many people thought that this should be an important task of
the EFA: just like a regular academy, the EFA should be active in developing the
theoretical and methodological underpinnings of Foresight, and not just a provider of
training. There is much potential for methodology development in Foresight, especially
by drawing upon Futures Studies, Technology and Integrated Assessment, and other
participative planning approaches. Foresight has always borrowed its methods from
other disciplines and could still profitably benefit by doing so. There is also significant
potential for ICTs to revolutionise Foresight methodology.

At the time of writing, a new COST Action on Foresight Methodology has just been
approved (see Box 5). This Action has been initiated largely by those who use futures



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         55                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




methods (especially scenarios and simulation models) in the environmental field,
although it will be open to others to join, for example, from the technology Foresight
tradition. The COST Action, which is set to start at the end of 2003, meets many of the
methodological development points highlighted in our demand review. It would
therefore seem reasonable for a future EFA to work with this COST Action rather than
duplicate its activities. We say more on this in Section 7.3.


                        Box 5: COST Action on Foresight Methodologies
Starting in December 2003 and due to last for four years, a COST Action on Foresight
methodologies is to be launched. The main objective of the Action is to develop certain aspects
of Foresight methodology so as to ensure systematic use and optimum benefit, specifically in
the areas of identifying seeds of change, integrating narratives and numbers, and interaction
between researchers, decision makers, and the public.

The diversity in European Foresight methodology makes for a rich pallet of techniques but it
also leads to the reinventing of wheels and putting old wine in new bottles. On the other hand,
developments in European Foresight are encouraging. A challenge is to maintain the
development of European Foresight in all its facets such as methodology, product,
communication, and dissemination. This COST Action addresses two aspects of Foresight:
•   Research and development of Foresight methodology: currently there is an imbalance
    between the high level of operational use of Foresight and the relatively low level of
    research and development of its methodology. Addressing a number of specified
    methodological issues in the Action would serve to enhance the quality of Foresight
    practice.
•   Communication of and co-operation on Foresight methodology among researchers and
    practitioners: communication and co-operation of Foresight expertise and experience is
    improving but most takes place within disciplinary and thematic boundaries. More cross-
    disciplinary communication would enhance learning and the development of
    methodological aspects of Foresight.



Nucleus of Reference
A number of demand review respondents suggested that the EFA should constitute a
“nucleus of reference” for Foresight, for example, by giving guidance on methods and
approaches, by providing case studies of good (and bad) practice, by setting quality
standards, and by producing training materials that could be widely disseminated and
deployed across Europe. To meet these demands, the EFA will need to work closely
with the Foresight Monitoring and Mapping Project that will be launched by DG RTD
in 2004 (see Box 6). It is envisaged that the Mapping Project itself could be a useful
resource for understanding and promoting Foresight practice and results. But further re-
packaging will be needed to transform Mapping outputs into suitable training materials.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         56                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




               Box 6: Monitoring and Mapping Foresight in Europe (DG RTD)
At the time of writing (October 2003), a call for tenders to monitor and map Foresight activities
in Europe is still open. This project will draw on the pilot phase of a mapping of Foresight
activities performed by JRC-IPTS and ESTO in 2002.7 It is anticipated that mapping will be
based on a survey of national and regional Foresight activities, which will be carried out by a
network of country correspondents on a permanent basis. The network will collect and analyse
information on such activities in Europe; produce brief overviews on thematic Foresight results
and on national/regional Foresight activities; and exploit this information for the preparation of
a Foresight Map.



Networks and Services for Mutual Learning
Finally, the demand review showed much interest in the establishment of discussion
forums for mutual learning between Foresight users and practitioners. These could be
remotely convened through online discussion groups, or they could be physical meeting
events, such as knowledge fairs and other conferences / workshops. They would be
places where practitioners could share their knowledge and experiences for mutual gain.
There was insufficient time for the EFA to set up anything like this during the pilot
study, but if it were to be done in the future, it would need to be framed and delivered
carefully with appropriate focus. For example, it is well known that many online
discussion groups generate disappointing levels of traffic, whilst conferences often fail
to meet expectations. The EFA would therefore need to examine carefully the options
for discussion forums before committing itself to any particular format.

Something else that was highlighted by the demand review was the need for the EFA to
be flexible in its response to the information and training needs of its potential users.
Some users would need only to know what Foresight is and what it does; others would
need to gain proficiency in using the methods; whilst still others would need advice on
particular issues and problems. The first two needs can be reasonably satisfied by semi-
standardised courses and workshops. The latter need is, however, more difficult to
satisfy in this way. This was also apparent during the running of the EFA training
course: a few of the participants were relatively advanced in their use of Foresight
already and did not need training on the use of methods. Instead, they required advice
on specific issues and problems they were facing in their particular regional Foresight
exercises. Generally speaking, such advice cannot be provided in standard training
courses but is best given either through “self-help” group processes (e.g. in workshops
or online discussion groups), or on a one-to-one basis (e.g. through “coaching” or an
“agony aunt” service).

Coaching refers to a situation where an experienced practitioner is at hand to aid a less
experienced individual or organisation in their Foresight activities. Coaching services
are often provided by consultants and academics who advise companies and
organisations on their Foresight activities, although such coaching can spill over to
active process facilitation. An example of coaching provided by the public sector is
shown in Box 7. Here, the EC has set up a series of regional Foresight sub-groups that
mix experienced and less experienced regions. The aim is to generate Foresight action

7
  M. Keenan, D. Abbott, F. Scapolo and M. Zappacosta (2002) “EUROFORE: European Foresight
Competence Mapping (Pilot) Project”, Final Report - http://les.man.ac.uk/eurofore/



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plans (also known as “blueprints”) for the less experienced regions. Each sub-group has
4-5 regions represented, at least one of which will be highly experienced in using
Foresight. The idea is that the experienced region will coach the others in their
development of blueprints. Clearly, the scope of such coaching activities could be
widened, especially if the regional Foresight Blueprints Group is successful. For
example, coaching could be focused upon the use of a particular method, the challenge
of engaging particular groups, or even the practicalities of delivering successful training
courses, to name just a few. The EFA could be active in establishing coaching
partnerships or networks, especially concerning matters relevant to Foresight training
and capacity-building.


                Box 7: DG RTD’s Regional Foresight Blueprints Action Group
Building upon the regional Foresight country guides published in 2002,8 DG RTD have recently
established an action-oriented group that aims to develop Foresight ‘blueprints’, i.e. action plans
for implementing Foresight in regions. The point of departure for the Blueprint Group is to link
regions that have experience of Foresight with those wishing to implement Foresight, thereby
building learning partner relationships. This could include advanced motor regions, traditional
industry based regions in need of new directions, urban or rural regions, etc. The directly
involved regions are intended to serve as role models for a larger number of regions, presenting
the blueprints to a larger audience after the group has finished its work.

The blueprints will be developed as guides for action, of a regional, trans-regional, or horizontal
character. The blueprints will articulate a clear rationale for regional Foresight, and will build
on a clearly identified and recognised need, showing the role of regional Foresight in improving
policy design and implementation for enhancing competitiveness and social cohesion in
knowledge based economies. Beyond the framework of the group, the blueprints should serve
as road maps for regions wanting to learn from the group’s work and earlier successful
activities.


A less intensive form of coaching could be provided by ad hoc, one-off advice through
what we call an “agony aunt”9 service. Foresight practitioners, both new and old, often
encounter challenges that may be difficult to solve alone. A word of advice from
someone else can sometimes bring new ideas and perspectives to problem-solving.
Thus, one service that the future EFA could offer is an online Questions and Answers
service, which would constitute a sort of “helpdesk”. The helpdesk could be a small
panel of Foresight experts, numbering perhaps four persons, who would be at hand to
answer questions and queries as they are submitted (perhaps with a promise to reply
within 3 days). A single panel member might reply on behalf of the panel, or more
likely, panel members would be free to give their own views individually. A further
variation might see queries submitted to a wider mailing list. A wider range of
responses would then be possible, at least in theory. On the downside, mail list
members may be irritated by questions and queries and may not provide any useful
answers. And it would be unreasonable for anyone to think that they could get free
extensive consultancy services through such arrangements.


8
 REF
9
 “Agony aunt” is a British colloquialism for a person who offers personal advice in a newspaper or
magazine column to readers who write in with their problems.



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To summarise, the EFA could offer a wide variety of products and services, depending
upon the funding available and the interest they generate. In the next section, we
examine some of the options for configuring the EFA to deliver some of the content
outlined here.


7.3      Structure – how might a future EFA be configured?
For the purposes of this pilot study, six Foresight centres from across six countries have
worked together on a project basis, designing and delivering awareness workshops and
a training course, and authoring a Foresight Reader. Some project partners were more
involved than others in specific tasks, but all strategic decisions were taken together as a
project team. The question is whether a future EFA could work in this way?

In designing a future EFA, there are some essential features that should be observed:
    •   The EFA should be lean and non-bureaucratic, irrespective of the scope of its
        activities;
    •   The EFA should not seek to displace existing training or awareness-raising
        activities that are offered on a commercial basis;
    •   The EFA should be open to new ideas and new people, and not a ‘closed shop’
        that harbours vested interests and/or narrow views on what Foresight is;
    •   The EFA should, wherever possible, develop linkages with existing relevant
        initiatives, so as not to “reinvent the wheel” (duplication);
    •   The EFA should observe the principle of subsidiarity, ensuring that training and
        capacity-building activities are devolved to Member States, if appropriate;
    •   The EFA should be a distributed Academy, its nodes spread across all parts of
        the EU28; and
    •   The EFA should be financially sustainable, meaning it will need to develop
        multiple sources of funding, both public and private.

Bearing these points in mind, as well as considering the scope of possible activities that
the EFA could undertake (see Section 7.2), we have decided to paint a variety of
plausible pictures of a future EFA. In other words, we have developed scenarios. We
have taken four dimensions around which our scenarios are built:
    1. Remit – will this be wide, to include most or all of the potential activities
       highlighted in Section 7.2? Or will it be narrow, for example, focusing just on
       the maintenance of an online discussion space?
    2. Active Involvement – will the EFA be exclusively operated by a single or small
       number of organisations, as in the pilot study? Or will it be a more inclusive
       endeavour, organised more like a network?
    3. Mode of Operation – will the EFA operate mostly on a personal face-to-face
       basis? Or will it be almost entirely dependent on the use of the Internet to
       deliver training and networking?




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    4. Funding – will the EFA be entirely self-funding, for instance, through course
       fees? Or will it be supported by public funding, for example, from the EC
       and/or the Member States?

In all, we have developed five scenarios with a three-year time horizon (to 2006). This
has been done by asking two key questions:
    1. Do we need a European Foresight Academy in Europe? Assuming the answer is
       “No”, we have developed “The Status Quo” Scenario.
    2. If the answer to (1) is, however, “Yes”, should a European Foresight Academy
       be organising its own training and capacity-building initiatives or should it be
       adding value to the activities of others? Assuming that the EFA confines itself
       to adding value, we have developed two possible scenarios: “The Gazette”
       Scenario, where the EFA is little more than an online information-sharing space;
       and “The Orchestrator” Scenario, where the EFA is more active in promoting
       co-ordination between existing initiatives. We have also developed two
       scenarios for an EFA that is itself engaged in organising its own training and
       capacity-building activities. These are “The Player” Scenario, where the EFA
       runs training courses to complement those already in existence; and “The
       Impresario” Scenario, where the EFA takes the leading role in organising
       training and capacity-building initiatives in Europe.

Each of these scenarios is elaborated in more detail below. In the best tradition of using
scenarios, we do not pretend that any of them are predictions of the future of the EFA or
that one is more likely to come about than another. Rather, each is a plausible and
internally consistent account of a possible future for the EFA. The scenarios have been
created simply to illustrate some of the possible options open to the EFA and to provoke
debate on its future. It is down to the reader to decide on what course (s)he believes the
EFA should follow.

Before describing the scenarios, we should say a few words on a key factor underlying
the scenario set. This concerns the growth and development of the Foresight field itself,
especially as an area of practice. If interest in Foresight continues to grow at the rate
seen in the last 3-4 years, then we might expect many more organisations in a wider
variety of settings undertaking Foresight-type exercises. In the medium-long term,
there may even be a shift towards more sustainable and democratically accountable
policy and investment decision-making, which in turn could see a greater use of
Foresight tools. Clearly, any marked increase in interest will create a demand for
training courses, awareness-raising measures, discipline-building activities, and other
related services. It is also likely to see a mushrooming of service suppliers, many of
who will come from the private sector.

If, on the other hand, the popularity of Foresight wanes, then demand for these services
is likely to be minimal and many potential service providers are unlikely to materialise.
Of course, popular interest in Foresight is not a totally exogenous factor here, since
successful awareness-raising and discipline-building activities would be expected to
contribute to Foresight’s popularity. But it would be overly simplistic to assume that a
bigger programme of awareness-raising, training, etc. would alone provide bigger
returns in terms of the level of interest in Foresight. Clearly, there are other multiple




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factors at play that reflect the wider economic, political, social, and cultural
environment.

Given these complications, we have decided not to include the growth and development
of Foresight as a variable in our scenarios. Instead, we have assumed for all scenarios
that Foresight continues to be used at national level, is used more than today at regional
levels, and continues to be slowly adopted by sectoral and interest communities, as well
as individual organisations, both in the public and private sectors. Against this
background, our scenarios suggest different approaches to providing training,
awareness-raising services, and discipline-building activities by a prospective EFA.


Scenario 1 – The Status Quo
In this scenario, no EFA or anything like it is set up in Europe. “Open access”
executive Foresight training courses continue to be available at a few centres around
Europe, such as PREST and Futuribles, though contact between these centres remains
minimal. One or two new centres have appeared by 2006, but in most places in Europe,
no such training exists. As for university courses, there has been a slight increase in
their prevalence, but this is the result of efforts by a few committed futurists who have
been working on embedding Futures Studies into academia for many years. Any other
embedding or awareness-raising activities are largely confined to areas where Foresight
exercises are currently underway. But these fall far short of the expectations of
practitioners and of those who would like to see the institutionalisation of a Foresight
culture, not least due to their transitory existence.

In the meantime, the EC continues to support the mapping and monitoring of Foresight
in Europe (see Box 6). Whilst much of the data collected has been cleverly presented to
increase the likelihood of its use by decision makers and practitioners, little effort has
been put into transforming it for pedagogical purposes. On the other hand, more
guidebooks and textbooks on Foresight have now appeared, with a few available in
most of the major European languages. And the COST Action on Foresight
methodology has produced some useful lessons for theoreticians and practitioners,
although translating these lessons into guidance and good practice has proved difficult.


                          Box 8: Regional Foresight Association (RFA)
Founded in 2003 by the Centre of Technology Assessment in Stuttgart, the Regional Foresight
Association (RFA) aims to be a platform for knowledge exchange on regional Foresight. More
specifically, it seeks to be a place for exchange of experiences and good practices, as well as a
place for promoting the development of Foresight methods and approaches. Already, several
hundred Foresight experts and institutions have expressed their interest in joining the RFA. A
survey of these actors, which sought their views on possible goals for the RFA, showed the top
five to be (1) marketing and promotion of regional Foresight; (2) information and exchange on
best practice; (3) networking of regions engaged in Foresight; (4) information on Foresight
methods; and (5) Foresight training and seminars. These results are closely aligned to those we
obtained in our demand review (see Chapter 2). Despite these clearly defined goals, the status
and future activities of the RFA are still uncertain. Besides the survey, the RFA has to date only
published a newsletter, with the promise of further editions to come in 2004.




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As for networking, the EC’s mapping project has helped, as have a few pan-European
Foresight projects funded by the EC. Occasional conferences continue to be organised,
although these are far less frequent than a few years earlier. Some enterprising centres
have established networks on particular Foresight themes – for example, the Centre of
Technology Assessment in Germany set up a Regional Foresight Association in 2003,
which still produces a newsletter twice a year (see Box 8). However, without financial
support, it has been unable to do much more than this. Meanwhile, the coaching–
partnership approach championed by DG RTD’s in its 2003 Blueprints Group has failed
to be widely adopted. Difficulties in initiating and organising such partnerships deter
many Commission officials from even contemplating them, in spite of the Blueprints
Group’s apparent success.


Scenario 2 – The Gazette
In this scenario, the EFA (or something like it) has been launched as an online
information service covering Foresight issues and events. It is loosely modelled on an
online service developed in France in 2002 (see Box 9), but is more extensive in scope.
It is hosted at JRC-IPTS, where a supervised intern is responsible for its maintenance
and vitality. This makes the service cheap to operate and it is funded directly from the
JRC-IPTS budget.

The service is tightly linked to DG RTD’s monitoring and mapping project, and features
new briefings and events to emerge from this work. But subscribers to the service can
also use it to advertise their own events and publications, which in fact constitute more
than two-thirds of the content of the web site. Subsequently, there are sections on new
publications, on training events and other workshops/conferences, and on links to other
Foresight activities. This comprehensiveness means that the service becomes the first
portal of choice for anyone wanting to know more about Foresight in Europe and
beyond.


                         Box 9: Prospective-Foresight Network (France)
The Prospective-Foresight Network is an association founded in 2002 by researchers at LIPSOR
(CNAM) – see Chapter 3. Its overall aim is to develop the philosophy and use of Foresight as a
decision-making aid in preparing for the future. It is targeted at government organisations,
companies, schools and universities, and public and private associations, both in France and
abroad. However, anyone with an interest in the Foresight field is invited to join, whether a
practitioners, theoretician, or user.

The Network currently provides an interactive space of communication and information
exchange via the internet. The internet site has a number of discussion groups focused on
particular themes. They are used by those who wish to improve their knowledge in Foresight,
and to share their experiences together. In addition, a directory of members is available.
Finally, a newsletter is produced periodically. One of its main aims is to promote the Foresight
practitioner community in France and abroad.


Around two thousand people from more than seven hundred organisations are signed up
to the service, which is free. They receive a monthly e-mail update that provides them
with hyperlinks to new developments featured on the web site. But the portal is more



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than just a message board. It also has dedicated spaces for discussion groups. Such
groups tend to be initiated by users of the service, who then select a moderator amongst
themselves. Anyone signed up to the message board is free to join any of the discussion
groups. When traffic has ceased within a discussion group, it is archived for future
reference. In addition to discussion groups, the portal also includes an “agony aunt”, or
helpdesk, service. This is manned by four experienced Foresight practitioners who
answer queries from those signed up to the service. Typically, no more than two
queries are posted each week, with each taking on average 10-15 minutes to deal with.
The Foresight experts are each paid three days per annum to cover their time.

Finally, to complement DG RTD’s mapping and monitoring of Foresight activities, the
service has a directory of members. This operates at two levels: (1) a “basic level” for
those who want just to list their names and affiliations; and (2) a “résumé level” for
those who wish to feature their expertise and experiences as Foresight practitioners.
Standard self-completion web forms are used to collect this data, which is then
searchable against keywords and a map of Europe.


Scenario 3 – The Orchestrator
In this scenario, the EFA assumes a much more proactive role in European Foresight.
The main aim of the EFA is to initiate and maintain an ongoing dialogue between
existing capacity-building actors (and between existing and aspirant providers), with a
view to (a) enrich existing training courses and other capacity-building initiatives; (b)
develop learning partnerships between existing and aspirant training providers; and (c)
develop a nucleus of reference (e.g. guidelines on good practice, quality standards,
teaching materials, etc.) that serves a European “community” of trainers and
practitioners. This scenario has some commonality with the current aspirations of the
World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), which is looking to establish a cross-
national Masters programme in Futures Studies that will be delivered in several
locations across 4-5 continents (see Box 10). But “The Orchestrator” EFA is more
ambitious still.

Thus, in addition to the online services offered in “The Gazette” Scenario, “The
Orchestrator” Scenario sees the EFA conduct face-to-face meetings and workshops. In
practice, this means that the EFA organises annual workshops between training
providers, where course development proposals are discussed and debated. The aim
here is two-fold: (1) for existing training programmes to broaden their scope and to
improve their content through mutual learning; and (2) for common course modules to
be developed and deployed across Europe by different centres. Both the executive and
academic education markets are covered. The EFA also organises a partnership
assistance programme, where existing centres coach aspirant training centres in their
development of training modules. Although there is an emphasis on improving training
offerings, the EFA is careful not to destroy the diversity that marks the European
Foresight scene. Indeed, it seeks to broaden awareness of this diversity through its
actions.




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                    Box 10: The World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF)
Founded in 1967, the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) is an organisation of some 500
individuals and 60 institutions around the world whose mission is to promote futures education
and research. It constitutes a global network of practicing futurists – researchers, teachers,
scholars, policy analysts, activists and others – that seeks to
•   Promote a higher level of futures consciousness in general
•   Stimulate cooperative research activities in all fields of futures studies
•   Plan and hold regional and global futures studies conferences and courses
•   Encourage the democratization of future-oriented thinking and acting
•   Stimulate awareness of the urgent need for futures studies in governments and international
    organizations, as well as other decision making and educational groups and institutions, to
    resolve problems at local, national, regional, and global levels, and
•   Assist local and global futures research activities.

The WFSF is classified as a Category II Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) with the
United Nations (UN), has formal consultative status with UNESCO, and enjoys close
cooperation with the UN University, UNDP, UNEP, UNITAR, ILO, FAO and WHO.
Throughout its history, WFSF has been supported by various national, regional, and
international groups such as The Club of Rome, Futuribles, the University of Hawaii, and the
Turku School of Economics in Finland. However, to ensure independence, general WFSF
activities are covered mainly by membership fees from individuals and institutions, and by the
organisation hosting the Secretariat. Expenses of conferences (global and special), seminars,
courses, and research projects are generally covered by the participants themselves and the local
organisations. The WFSF also seeks and accepts grants for specific purposes.


The EFA is governed by a small steering committee of 6-8 persons, drawn from the EC
and the wider Foresight community. It is jointly funded by (1) the EC, which pays for
networking activities, i.e. travel and subsistence to attend meetings and workshops, and
the online message board; and (2) the training centres themselves, which spend time and
money developing new courses and delivery mechanisms from which they wish to
profit.

By 2006, several new training centres have been established across the EU, especially in
the new Member States and former Cohesion Countries. Activities range from the
provision of executive short courses to the establishment of local information portals (in
local languages) that part-mirror the contents of the EU-wide message board. A number
of universities and business schools have also introduced Foresight modules embedded
in other course programmes. Some course modules (both in the executive and academic
sectors) have been adapted from European-wide modules collectively developed by the
EFA network. Still others are delivered online, with well-established providers, such as
FFRC and Futuribles, outsourcing some modules.




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Scenario 4 – The Player
In this scenario, the EFA is more than just an organisation that adds value to existing
Foresight training initiatives. It also designs and delivers its own training courses and
other capacity-building measures. To do this, it identifies training gaps that market
mechanisms are unlikely to fill in the near future and designs courses and other
activities to fill these. As in “The Gazette” Scenario, it also acts as an information point
and discussion forum, engaging both practitioners and users of Foresight. However, the
EFA does not get involved in orchestrating the Foresight training scene in Europe, but
is, rather, another player that adds to the training provision on offer.

The EFA is led by a small cohort of existing training centres, similar in size and
composition to the group assembled for the pilot study. They design short courses (2-5
days each) on Foresight methods, on managing and organising Foresight exercises, and
on utilisation of results. They have also developed an online training module, drawing
upon the various guidebooks published over the previous few years, the results of the
COST Action on Foresight methodology, and UNIDO efforts at designing distance
learning modules. Those attending short courses are encouraged to do the online course
first before embarking upon face-to-face courses.

The EFA is solely concerned with the executive training market and does not get
involved in academic or classroom training. All courses are fee paying, including the
online training module, which costs €200. Courses are generally charged at €200 per
day per person, although some variation is possible depending upon the subject area and
the target audience. Course fees allow the EFA to cover around 75 per cent of its
running costs, with the remaining costs met by subsidy from the EC and/or Member
States. The EC contribution is used to (a) subsidise some course participants, e.g. from
the new Member States, and (b) to pay for course development and annual meetings
between teachers. On average, two 3-5 day courses are organised each year, with about
30 people attending each. As courses are modularised, participants can choose to attend
just the first or last parts, depending on their training needs. The EFA also awards
certificates of attendance, although these have little academic value in themselves.

To keep costs low, some teachers are “beamed in” using video-conference facilities,
which are now increasingly widespread at the right price and with sufficient quality.
Courses reflect the wide experiences and traditions of Foresight and Futures Studies in
Europe, drawing upon a pool of teachers that extends beyond the organisational
boundaries of the training centres running the EFA. Courses are very practically-
oriented, with participants encouraged to learn through problem-based approaches.

In some special cases, the EFA organises courses for other organisations, such as
UNIDO and UNESCO. These organisations essentially outsource course organisation
and management to the EFA for a fixed fee. National and regional governments, and
even some major European companies, also hire the services of the EFA from time to
time. In all, one or two courses are organised in this way each year.




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Scenario 5 – The Impresario
In this scenario, the EFA is the main player in raising the awareness of Foresight across
European society and in providing Foresight training. As in “The Gazette” Scenario, it
acts as an online information provider and discussion forum. As in “The Player”
Scenario, it organises its own courses and workshops. And as in “The Orchestrator”
Scenario, it looks to better co-ordinate existing and evolving Foresight capacity-
building activities across Europe. Essentially, “The Impresario” Scenario paints a
picture of an EFA that co-ordinates most capacity-building activity in Europe, and
perhaps most closely aligns to the ambitious project of the euroProspective consortium
(see Box 11).

The EFA in this guise has a full-time secretariat of two persons plus an administrator
and an intern. These are funded by the EC and are located in the JRC-IPTS. Despite its
location in JRC-IPTS, the EFA secretariat is ultimately accountable to a steering
committee of senior EC officials and participating practitioner organisations. The latter
are elected to the steering committee on a biannual basis. Around forty centres across
Europe have become affiliated EFA training points (including the partners on this pilot
project), with at least one training point in each of the EU28 countries (in some places,
such as France, Germany and the UK, there are several). The EFA ‘badge’ becomes a
sign of quality and is widely used by those who are members.

Courses continue to be offered by existing training centres, but these now undergo peer
review before receiving EFA accreditation. Existing courses are also widely
reproduced and adapted for delivery across Member States, where teaching can be done
in the home language. By now, a broad suite of short courses is on offer in English and,
to a lesser extent, in the other main European languages. These are targeted at both
single nationality and multinational audiences. Besides short courses, ambitious
distance learning programmes have been developed, delivered partly online, but also
through summer schools and/or contacts with a local training point. These broaden the
EFA’s market beyond the physical boundaries of Europe. And academic modules have
been developed that are beginning to be used as the basis for new courses in several
universities across Europe and beyond.

During 2006, around 40 short courses have been offered, distributed across virtually
every member of the EU28. As in “The Player” Scenario, courses are largely self-
funding through tuition fees, although there is great variation in the amounts that are
charged across the Member States (reflecting local costs). The EFA conducts periodic
demand reviews to identify new needs and new markets for its activities. With this
information, it can conduct an aggressive marketing campaign, with a presence at many
European conferences and a widely distributed newsletter. Given these extra tasks, the
EFA is reliant upon more public funding than in “The Player” Scenario, at least for the
first few years, where the EC contribution has reached 60% of total funding.

“The Impresario” EFA also plays a leading role in discipline-building activities, to
include developing new methods and approaches, and assisting the diffusion of
Foresight thinking and practice into a wider policy arena. It drafts five-yearly
“Foresight Manifestos” to help guide research and practitioner activities in the short-
medium term. Drawing upon these activities, the EFA provides a nucleus of reference
for Foresight practitioners and users, providing (a) guidance on good practice and



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quality control, and (b) resources for others to use, e.g. megatrend studies, existing
scenarios, online tools such as Delphi software, etc.


                                       Box 11: euroProspective
In 2001, the Jules-Destrée Institute (Belgium) and the futures studies research centre proGective
(France) formed a European Economic Interest Group (EEIG), in order to develop and promote
Futures Studies and research (esp. French prospective) in Europe. Known as “euroProspective”,
the Group also included: the Futures Studies Centre of the Budapest University of Economic
Sciences (Hungary), the Faculty of the Built Environment of the Dublin Institute of Technology
(Ireland), Z_punkt GmbH (Germany), Periscopi (Spain), and Scénarios + Vision (France).

euroProspective was a very ambitious project, having four main activities:
•   Information and exchange about futures studies and research, especially through the
    management and coordination of a multilingual website. This “clearinghouse” provided
    links to existing web sites, books, activities and people devoted to Foresight and prospective
    all over the world.
•   Promotion of existing high-quality Foresight and prospective practices, both for the human
    values they carry and for the rigour of their methods; organisation of events such as targeted
    European seminars, international conferences; and publication of a collection of books
    developing innovative visions of Futures Studies and research.
•   Organisation of a strong and permanent network between European and non-European
    futurists (academics and professionals) in order to develop exchanges, to structure both
    supply and demand, to systematise efforts that were considered to be scattered, and to help
    revitalisation of the field.
•   The fostering of a professional ability in Futures Studies and research among its potential
    practitioners and users through the promotion of handbooks presenting concepts, methods
    and experiences in the field, and through the organisation of training seminars, and the
    animation of working groups.

In addition, euroProspective, in partnership with the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF),
had a long-term aim to provide e-futures courses and to develop an international certification on
Futures Studies through the establishment of a “World Futures University”. The goal of the
project was to develop and promote the teaching of Futures Studies both in university and in
secondary schools. This “open” university would mix real classrooms together with open
learning, in order to bring together the main courses of Futures Studies existing in the world and
give them a special value. It would also be a resource centre to help teachers and adults to
improve their knowledge of Futures Studies, providing materials, examples of best practices,
clearinghouses, lists of teachers around the world and a discussion forum.

At the time of writing (October 2003), euroProspective is under reconstruction after some
reshuffling of membership. This ‘reconstruction’ is necessary on account of euroProspective
being an EEIG, which is a form of legal organisation similar to that of a company.


Each of the scenarios is summarised in Table 6 below.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         67                      The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




Table 6: Summary of the EFA Scenarios

                           Gazette           Orchestrator               Player            Impresario

Information          Web site and e-       Web site and e-       Web site and e-       Web site and e-
Service              mail updates          mail updates          mail updates          mail updates
Discussion           Electronic            Workshops and         E-discussion and      E-discussion;
Forums               discussion group      e-discussion          trainer meetings      w/shops & confs
Exec Education       None                  None                  Face-to-face and      Face-to-face and
Short Courses                                                    online courses        online courses
Academic             None                  None                  None                  Modules
Courses                                                                                developed
Course               None                  Assists existing      Designs its own       Designs its own
Development                                training centres      Ex. Ed. courses       courses
Awareness            Monthly e-mail        E-mail bulletin;      E-mail bulletin;      Newsletter,
Raising              bulletins             coaching              teaching              conferences, etc.
Discipline           Discussions thru      E-lists; meetings     E-lists; course       Foresight
Building             mail lists            between trainers      development           Manifesto
Nucleus of           None                  Yes                   No                    Yes
Reference
Help-Desk            Small team of         Small team of         Small team of         Small team of
                     experts               experts               experts               experts
Coaching             None                  Between training      None                  Between training
                                           centres only                                centres only
Network Trainer      None                  Community of          Community of          Community of
Centres Links                              centres develops      centres develops      centres develops
Extent of Active     EC plus               EC plus training      EC plus training      EC plus centres
Involvement          helpdesk experts      centres               centres               of Foresight
Face-to-face         None                  Workshops and         Courses;              Courses; many
Interaction                                meetings              workshops             different events
Remote               Everything is         E-lists and other     E-forums and          E-forums and
Interaction          done online           e-forums used         online teaching       online teaching
Public Funding       Low                   Medium                Low                   High
from EC
Self and Private     None                  Medium                High                  Medium
Funding




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         68                             The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




7.4      Summary conclusions
This report has sought to highlight the lessons learnt from a pilot study of Foresight
capacity-building actions, with a view to informing policy decisions on the
establishment of a permanent and sustainable European Foresight Academy. The study
included organising two awareness-raising workshops and a training course, preparing a
Foresight Reader, and setting-up a project web site. These activities were planned
against the background of a review of (a) existing Foresight training provision and (b)
latent demand for Foresight training. Several recommendations have been made in light
of the activities carried out, which will not be repeated here (see, in particular, Sections
4.3, 5.3, and 6.4).

Based upon these findings, five scenarios have been elaborated that suggest different
options for the shape and activities of a future European Foresight Academy. These
range from leaving things as they are to constructing a rather elaborate institution with
co-ordination and delivery functions. We have made no recommendations in light of
the scenarios; rather, we invite readers to make up their own minds on the EFA they
would prefer. With this in mind, we make one final recommendation: that this
document, and particularly the scenarios, be distributed to Foresight practitioners,
sponsors, trainers, and users in order to elicit their opinions on the shape of a future
EFA. To augment this consultation, a further meeting should be organised in early
2004, to include project partners and major stakeholders. This will provide an
opportunity for some of the evidence and ideas contained within this report to be
discussed more fully, and perhaps for some broad course of action to be set on the road
to a permanent and sustainable European Foresight Academy.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         69                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




Annexe: Supporting materials



      Box 12: Interview protocol used for senior decision makers and research managers

    1. Visioning
       • Does your organisation/research field/national system have a long-term (at least 5-
           10 years) strategic vision?
       • If so, how is this formulated? (the process, the participants, etc.)
       • What effects does this vision have in your organisation/research field/national
           system?

    2. Futures Thinking
       • What (formal and informal) processes does your organisation/research
          field/national system use to identify trends and drivers that are likely to have an
          impact on your organisation, etc.?
       • To what extent does your organisation/research field/national system attempt to
          anticipate future threats and opportunities that might affect your organisation etc.?
          What would be the typical time-horizon of such analyses?
       • How do such analyses affect what your organisation/research field does NOW?

    3. Prioritisation
       • What approaches does your organisation/research field/national system use for
           setting strategic priorities?
       • Who is involved in this process?
       • How are these strategic priorities ‘translated’ into programmes and projects?
       • How is ‘buy-in’ (enrolment) ensured with respect to these priorities?

    4. Collaboration (networking)
       • What mechanisms do you have in place to encourage networking and collaboration
           both within and outside of your organisation? Please comment on wider
           mechanisms at the research field/national system levels
       • How do you think these arrangements could be improved?

    5. Familiarity with foresight/prospective approaches
       • Has your organisation/research field undertaken any sort of foresight exercise at any
          time? If so, what happened?
       • Could you see ways that foresight could be usefully deployed in your
          organisation/research field/national system? If so, what barriers would need to be
          overcome to initiate foresight?

    6. Usefulness of foresight training
       • Do you think that your organisation/community could benefit from training in the
          use/management of foresight tools and techniques?
       • If so, what sorts of things would you like to see offered on such a training course?
       • Do you think other groups/communities would have an interest in this type of
          training? If yes, could you specify which ones?




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         70                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




                    Box 13: Survey questions posed to existing practitioners
1. Are you familiar with any current Foresight training provision within Europe? If yes,
   please list these below, outlining some of their main features in terms of (a) what is taught;
   (b) who is the target audience; (c) what is the duration; and (d) your overall impressions?
2. Who, in your view, could most benefit from Foresight training? Please justify your answer,
   indicating possible mechanisms for enrolling such groups into Foresight training
   programmes.
3. In light of your answers above, what further Foresight training provision would you like to
   see? And how could a European Foresight Academy be configured to meet this training
   agenda?
4. What could you (and/or your organisation) potentially contribute to the establishment and
   operation of a European Foresight Academy?
5. How would you (and/or your organisation) hope to benefit from a European Foresight
   Academy? For example, could you envisage such an Academy providing mutual learning
   on state-of-the-art methods?
6. Do you have any further comments or suggestions?



      Box 14: Survey questions posed to Candidate Country prospective practitioners
1. As far as you know, has any sort of foresight exercise been undertaken at any time by your
   organisation / research field / national system of innovation? If yes, what happened?
2. Based on what you already know, do you think that foresight could be usefully deployed by
   your organisation / research field / national system of innovation? Please elaborate,
   indicating the barriers that would need to be overcome.
3. Do you think that your organisation or other national agencies could benefit from training
   and/or knowledge sharing in the use / management of foresight tools and techniques?
4. If yes, please indicate (a) Who you think could benefit from a European Foresight
   Academy; and (b) The sorts of training / knowledge sharing programmes such an Academy
   should offer.



               Box 15: Survey questions posed to members of the IRE Network
1. As far as you know, has your organisation or region undertaken any sort of foresight
   exercise at any time? If yes, what happened?
2. Based on what you already know, do you think that foresight could be usefully deployed by
   your organisation and/or region? Please elaborate, indicating the barriers that would need to
   be overcome.
3. Do you think that your organisation or other regional players could benefit from training
   and/or knowledge sharing in the use / management of foresight tools and techniques?
4. If yes, please indicate (a) Who you think could benefit from a European Foresight
   Academy; and (b) The sorts of training / knowledge sharing programmes such an Academy
   should offer.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         71                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy


                                          Regional Foresight Training
                                                           Workshop
                                                                                  26-28 May 2003
                                                                            European Commission,
                                                                           JRC-Ispra, Varese, Italy

The challenges facing regions                                 Who should attend this workshop?
There is a new regional awakening in Europe. With it          This training workshop provides an intensive,
come new aspirations, but also new responsibilities.          practically-oriented introduction to regional Foresight
For example, issues of sustainable economic                   and will be useful for those thinking about organising
development, social justice, and democratic renewal           and managing Foresight activities in their own
are now increasingly addressed at the regional level.         regions.
In other words, many of the ‘big issues’ that have
been traditionally the preserve of nation states are          Workshop structure and content
now being addressed by sub-national regions.                  The workshop will run over three days and will cover
                                                              the following main areas:
What role is there for Foresight in
                                                              Day 1 – challenges of the future; rationales for
regions?
                                                              regional foresight; case histories of regional
Foresight is a systematic, participatory process              foresight; scoping regional foresight
involving intelligence gathering and vision building
                                                              Day 2 – methods used in foresight studies – when to
for the medium-to-long-term future. Crucially,
                                                              use them and what to expect; useful resources and
Foresight is aimed at informing present-day
                                                              new methodological developments
decisions and mobilising joint actions. It can be used
to systematically assess the strengths and                    Day 3 – outputs and their interpretation; reporting
weaknesses of a given region with a view to setting           and dissemination; making a difference – strategy
strategic priorities and achievable goals. Foresight          and implementation
can also be used for ‘wiring-up’ regional innovation
systems – that is, for getting research, business,            Teaching staff
voluntary and policy communities working in closer            The EFA’s founding members include leading
harmony. But more than this, Foresight contributes            European institutions in the practice and teaching of
towards a new mode of inclusive, strategic                    Foresight and Strategic Prospectives. Practitioners
governance, where policy formulation becomes                  from these and other centres will deliver lectures and
more attuned to the realities of policy delivery. This        facilitate practical sessions.
is an invaluable asset in today’s social, economic
and political environment, where policy and                   Further enquiries and applications
investment decisions tend to be distributed across
                                                              Further information can be obtained from:
numerous (regional) actors.
                                                              Dr. Michael Keenan
The European Foresight Academy (EFA)                          PREST, University of Manchester
In recent events organised by the European                    Manchester M13 9PL
Commission, a recurring request from participants             United Kingdom
has concerned the need for better diffusion of                t. +44 161 275 5921
Foresight know-how on a stable and continuous                 f. +44 161 275 0923
basis. One way to meet this demand has been to                e. michael.keenan@man.ac.uk
establish a European Foresight Academy (EFA)
whose aim is to provide training in the management            Or by visiting the EFA’s web site at:
and organisation of Foresight, as well as to supply           http://www.jrc.es/projects/foresightacademy
knowledge on state-of-the-art tools and methods.
The EFA also constitutes a useful forum for
exchange of Foresight experiences across Europe
and beyond.




European Commission JRC-IPTS                                    72               The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




                                  Awareness Workshop

          Introduction to Research & Technology Foresight

                                    JRC-Ispra, Varese, Italy

                                         22-23 May 2003


                                Preliminary Programme


Day 1: Thursday 22 May
9:30-9:45                  Welcoming Address

9:45-10:00                 Introductory Session
                           Outline and objectives of the workshop; introduction of
                           participants. By Dr. Fabiana Scapolo, JRC-IPTS and EFA

10:00-11.00                Presentation: Rationales for Foresight
                           Main challenges of the future facing Science &
                           Technology research Definition, principles, history and
                           evolution of Foresight. Question & Answers.
                           By Dr. Michael Keenan, PREST and EFA

11:00-11:15                Coffee break

11:15-12:00                Presentation: Uses and limitations of Foresight
                           Advantages and disadvantages of Foresight approach in
                           Science and Technology. Question & Answers.
                           By Dr. Mario Zappacosta, JRC-IPTS and EFA

12:00-12:45                Case Study (1): How to use Foresight results: The
                           experience of the German Fraunhofer Institutes
                           The Fraunhofer experience of using Delphi results to
                           realign research areas in Institutes by Dr. Susanne
                           Bührer, ISI FhG and EFA

12:45-13:45                Lunch

13:45- 14:45               Presentation: Introducing Methods used in
                           Foresight
                           Outline of major Foresight methods. Questions &
                           Answers. By Dr. Fabiana Scapolo, JRC-IPTS and EFA




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         73                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




14:45-15:45                Case Study (2): Future Impacts of Biotechnology
                           on Agriculture, Food Production and Food
                           Processing
                           A case study on five European countries (Germany,
                           Italy, Spain, Greece and the Netherlands)
                           By Dr. Klaus Menrad, ISI Fraunhofer, Düsseldorf

15:45-16:00                Coffee break

16:00-17:00                Case Study (3): A Forward Look to Gene Modified
                           Crops
                           The Danish Foresight experience on GMOs
                           by Dr. Kristian Borch, Risoe National Laboratory,
                           Denmark

17:00-17:30                Summing-up


Day 2: Friday May 23
9:30-10:15                 Case Study (4): Cloudy Crystal Balls
                           Assessing recent environmental scenario studies and
                           models. By Dr. Philip van Notten, International Centre
                           for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University

10:15-11:00                How to make (good) use of Foresight? How to
                           exploit its results?
                           General guidelines and practical examples. Questions &
                           answers. By Dr. Michael Keenan, PREST and EFA

11:00-11:15                Coffee break

11:15-12:30                Discussion Groups: Practical Steps for
                           Incorporating Foresight into JRC programme
                           planning and FP6 Integrated Projects.
                           Facilitators: Dr. Fabiana Scapolo and Dr. Mario
                           Zappacosta, JRC-IPTS and EFA;

12:30-13:00                Summary and Final Discussion

                           Closing session




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         74                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




 Regional Foresight Methods Training Workshop

                 Joint Research Center, Ispra (Varese), Italy


                                        26-28 May 2003

                             Preliminary Programme


Day 1: Monday 26 May
09:00-09:30                Introductory Session
                           Outline and objectives of the workshop; introduction of
                           participants
                           Dr. Mario Zappacosta, JRC-IPTS and EFA

09:30-10:30                Rationales for Foresight
                           Main challenges of the future facing regions, the need
                           for Foresight to shape futures and illustration of the
                           range of issues to which Foresight can and cannot be
                           applied. By Dr. Ken Ducatel, JRC-IPTS and EFA

10:30-10:45                Coffee Break

10:45-11:30                Regional Experiences of using Foresight (Part I)
                           Case descriptions of selected regional Foresight
                           experiences from across Europe
                           Dr. Michael Keenan, PREST and EFA

11:30-12:15                Regional Experiences of using Foresight (Part II)
                           Case descriptions of selected regional Foresight
                           experiences in Germany
                           Dr. Annette Braun, VDI, Germany

12:15–12:30                Questions & Answers

12:30-13:30                Lunch

13:30-14:15                Presentation: Introducing Methods used in
                           Foresight
                           Outline of some of the major methods used in Foresight,
                           how they fit together, and their relative strengths and
                           weaknesses. By Graham May, Futures Skills




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         75                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




14:15-15:00                Methods (1): Background Analysis
                           Introducing Trend Extrapolation and Environmental
                           Scanning
                           Dr. Jari Kaivo-oja, Finland Futures Research Centre and
                           EFA

15:00-15:15                Coffee break

15:15-15:45                Methods (2) – Ideas Generation and Selection
                           Introducing varieties of Creative Methods techniques
                           Graham May, Futures Skills

15:45-17:00                Working groups
                           Groups will work with two forms of structuring and
                           visualising first ideas for selection
                           Leaders: Graham May and Dr. Jari Kaivo-oja

17:00-17:30                Presentation of working groups’ results to plenary
                           and conclusions of Day 1


Day 2: Tuesday 27 May

9:00-10:45                 Methods (3) – Eliciting Expert Judgement - Delphi
                           Dr. Kerstin Cuhls, FhG-ISI and EFA
                           Presentation will be followed by a short practical
                           exercise

10.45-11.00                Coffee break

11.00-11:45                Methods (4) – Eliciting Expert Judgement - SMIC
                           Dr. Fabiana Scapolo, JRC-IPTS and EFA

11:45–12:30                Methods (5) – Eliciting Expert Judgement – other
                           approaches, incl. panels, interviews, surveys, etc.
                           Dr. Michael Keenan, PREST and EFA

12:30-13:30                Lunch

13:30-14:15                Methods (6) – Scenarios
                           Dr. Ken Ducatel, JRC-IPTS and EFA

14:15-15:30                Working groups
                           Four groups will use two different approaches for
                           scenario building: exploratory and normative
                           Leaders: Dr. Ken Ducatel and Graham May

15:30-15:45                Coffee break

15:45-17:30                Working groups (continuation)



European Commission JRC-IPTS                         76                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




Day 3: Wednesday 28 May
9:00-10:15                 Presentation of working groups results to plenary
                           Groups will present their scenario work from the day
                           before

10:15-11:00                Using Foresight Results and other Implementation
                           Issues
                           Includes discussion of the relative merits of stand-alone
                           Foresight exercises versus Foresight practice embedded
                           in existing regional policy initiatives (e.g. RIS)
                           Dr. Michael Keenan, PREST, University of Manchester
                           and EFA

11:00-11:15                Coffee break

11:15-12:00                Organising and Managing a Regional Foresight
                           Exercise
                           Introducing guidelines for scoping, organising and
                           managing a Regional Foresight exercise (based on the
                           Practical Guide to Regional Foresight)
                           Dr. Mario Zappacosta, JRC-IPTS and EFA

12.00-12:30                Questions and Answers

12:30-13:30                Lunch

13:30-14:30                Practical session: Fitting together the methods
                           jigsaw
                           Led by Graham May and Dr. Fabiana Scapolo

14:30-15:15                From Micro to Macro-regions: Regional Foresight
                           across national boundaries
                           Dr. Nikki Slocum, United Nation University –
                           Comparative Regional Integration Studies (UNU/CRIS)

15:15-15:30                Coffee break

15:30-16:15                Summary and Feedback
                           Discussion led by Dr. Fabiana Scapolo, JRC-IPTS and
                           EFA

16:15                      End




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         77                    The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




EVALUATION FORM


Regional Foresight Methods Training Workshop
JRC-Ispra, Varese, Italy

Please, help us to develop this pilot course. This feedback is collected at the end of
each day by through this standard form. Please, answer the following questions.
Thank You!

1.       What was most productive time/activity today?




2.       Was there something you didn’t understand at all?




3.       Is there anything that you would have changed in learning/working
         modes?




4.       What would you like to be improved in the future?




5.       Evaluate this course day and tick your choices on scale 1–5.
         (1=poor, 5=excellent)

                                                       1        2          3   4     5
           Presentators
           Contents
           Materials
           Arrangements

         Please explain your ratings here:




6.       Other feedback to the organisers:




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         78                        The ESTO Network
Pilot Project to Scope the Establishment of a European Foresight Academy




GROUP WORK EVALUATION FORM

Please help us to develop this pilot course. This form should be completed only on
those days when participants have taken part in group work. Thank You!


1.       Overall, how effectively did your group work together? (circle the
         appropriate number)

         1                 2                 3                 4           5
         not at all        poorly            adequately        well        extremely well


2.       How actively did group members participate? (circle the appropriate
         number)


         1                 2                 3                 4           5
         not at all        poorly            adequately        well        extremely well


3.       How were the participants prepared for the groupwork? (circle the
         appropriate number)

         1                 2                 3                 4           5
         not at all        poorly            adequately        well        extremely well


4.       Give one specific example of something you learned from the group
         that you probably wouldn’t have learned on your own.




5.       Give one specific example of something the other group members
         learned from you that they probably wouldn’t have learned without
         you.




6.       Suggest one specific, practical change the group could make that
         would help improve everyone’s learning.




                           Designed by Finland Future Research Centre on the basis of
                                  T.A. Angelo – AAHE Assessment Forum – 7/95




European Commission JRC-IPTS                         79                     The ESTO Network

				
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