Globalization Presentation

Globalization 3.0: Why Career Clusters Matter More Than Ever! By Hans Meeder Presented to 2006 Career Clusters Conference June 2006 Key Points for Discussion • The Change Drivers • Designing a 21st century model – College-Readiness AND Work-Readiness for ALL students • The Role and Value of Career Clusters/Pathways Change Driver #1 The Shifting Global Landscape The World is Flat A brief History of the 21st Century by Thomas L. Friedman Globalization • Version 1.0. 1492 (Columbus) - 1800. – Key factors-- muscle, horsepower, windpower, steampower – Agent of change -- Countries and governments • Version 2.0. 1800 to 2000 – slowed by Great Depression and World Wars I and II – key factors: falling transportation costs, and later, by falling telecommunications costs – telegraph, telephones, the PC, satellites, fiber-optic cable, and early version of the Internet. Source: The World is Flat, A brief History of the 21st Century by Thomas L. Friedman Globalization • Version 3.0. 2000 to present – Key factors-- power for individuals to collaborate and compete globally. Software, applications, global fiber-optic network – Agent of change -- Individuals, much more diverse --- non-Western, non-white Source: The World is Flat, A brief History of the 21st Century by Thomas L. Friedman Friedman’s ten flattening forces 1. Fall of the Berlin Wall The events of November 9, 1989, tilted the worldwide balance of power toward democracies and free markets. 2. Netscape IPO The August 9, 1995, offering sparked massive investment in fiberoptic cables. 3. Work flow software The rise of apps from PayPal to VPNs enabled faster, closer coordination among far-flung employees. 4. Open-sourcing Self-organizing communities, à la Linux, launched a collaborative revolution. 5. Outsourcing Migrating business functions to India saved money and a third world economy. by Thomas L. Friedman & Wired Magazine, May 2005 Source: The World is Flat, A brief History of the 21st Century Friedman’s ten flattening forces 6. Offshoring Contract manufacturing elevated China to economic prominence. 7. Supply-chaining Robust networks of suppliers, retailers, and customers increased business efficiency. See Wal-Mart. 8. Insourcing Logistics giants took control of customer supply chains, helping mom-and-pop shops go global. See UPS and FedEx. 9. In-forming Power searching allowed everyone to use the Internet as a "personal supply chain of knowledge." See Google. 10. Wireless Like "steroids," wireless technologies pumped up collaboration, making it mobile and personal. Source: The World is Flat, A brief History of the 21st Century by Thomas L. Friedman & Wired Magazine, May 2005 The International Education Race Percentage of population with a postsecondary credential 60% 51 50% U.S. Canada Ireland Japan Korea 40% 31 40 43 30% 20% 10% 0% 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators 2003 The International Education Race Students Enrolled in Postsecondary (in thousands) 1990 U.S. China 2000 15.7 13.6 % Change +15% +258% 13.7 3.8 India 4.9 9.4 +92% UNESCO, 2003 So what about China and India? So what about China and India? • 2 nations with 1/3 of global population • Exponential economic growth during the last 20 years… -9.5% in China, 6% in India • China has largest # of cell phone users, 350 million, projected to be 600 million in 2009. • By 2007, China will have more broadband internet access than the U.S. • China -- mass manufacturing powerhouse • India – strength in design, services, and precision industry Offshoring and Outsourcing • McKinsey Global Institute estimates that 9.6 million U.S. services jobs could be sent offshore today (theoretically), 4m jobs more likely. • Some industries changed beyond recognition. • Outsourcing: – 49% of packaged software worldwide – 44% of infotech services – 25% of worldwide banking jobs – 19% of insurance jobs – 13% of pharmaceutical jobs – 52% of engineering jobs – 31% of accounting jobs Strengths and Challenges CHINA • INDIA • • • • • Population to grow to 1.6b by 2050. More efficient with capital than China. English speaking, friendly toward the U.S. and its citizens, more democratic and open society. Very undeveloped infrastructure – power and transportation Red-tape, bureaucracy and corruption Bottlenecks in high quality training High growth needed to avoid increased unemployment • • • 1-child policy limits population growth to 1b, then a “graying” population to reach 300m by 2025. Strong infrastructure with centralized coordination and planning. Growing political backlash against authoritarian control. High growth needed to avoid increased unemployment • • Overstating the Risk? • Popular wisdom?: “In engineering, China's graduates will number over 600,000, India's 350,000, America's only about 70,000. (Fortune, August 2005) • Reality: United States annually produces 137,437 engineers with at least a bachelor's degree while India produces 112,000 and China 351,537. That's more U.S. degrees per million residents than in either other nation. (Duke University Analysis, December 2005, Gerald Bracey, Washington Post, May 21, 2006 ) Getting used to the new neighbors… …”But the U.S. and other established powers will have to learn to make room for China and India.” Business Week, August 2005 Change Driver #2 The Demographic Challenge Demand for a Skilled Workforce Variable 1: 46 million baby boomers with some college, nearing retirement Variable 2: 49 new workforce entrants with some college. Variable 3: Net gain of 3 million in workforce with some college. Variable 6: Impact of “Flat World” --digitization, offshoring, and outsourcing. Variable 5: Net shortage of 12 million U.S. skilled workers by 2020. Variable 4: 15 million jobs by 2020 requiring college educated workers. Source: Carvnevale and Desrochers, “The Missing Middle: Aligning Education and the Knowledge Economy” Change Driver #3 Indicators of an Outmoded Preparation System High School Achievment -- FLAT African American and Latino 17 Year Olds Read at Same Levels as White 13 Year Olds 100% 0% 150 200 250 300 350 White 8th Graders Latino 12th Graders African American 12th Graders Source: Source: NAEP 1999 Long Term Trends Summary Tables (online) 12th Grade Reading 2 in 3 students are not proficient in Reading. 66% 2002 28 38 30 4 Below Basic Basic Proficient Advanced 33 5 62% 1998 25 37 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: U.S. Department of Education 2003, Prepared by Alliance for Excellent Education What Are the Results? What happens to entering 9th graders four years later… 37% Graduate from High School Not College-Ready 29% Dropout of High School 34% Greene & Winters 2005 Graduate from High School College-Ready What Are the Results? Low reading skills lead to low achievement. • Every year, 1.3 million students do not graduate with their peers. That means, every school day we lose 7,000 students. • Nationally, 29% of students do not graduate on time. • 68% of high school students graduate unprepared for college. And 53% of college students enroll in remedial courses. Swanson 2004; Greene & Winters 2005; NCES 2001. Employers/Instructors Dissatisfied With High Schools’ Skills Prep (In each area, % saying they are somewhat/very dissatisfied with the job public high schools are doing preparing graduates) College instructors Employers 70% 41% 62% 40% 59% 29% 52% 32% Reading/understanding 25% very dissatisfied complicated materials Quality of writing 22% very dissatisfied that is expected Doing research 24% very dissatisfied Mathematics 20% very dissatisfied Oral communication/ public speaking Science 24% 40% 34% 36% Source: Hart Research Associates, Achieve, “Rising to the Challenge,” Jan. 2005 Employers/Instructors Dissatisfied With High Schools’ Skills Prep (In each area, % saying they are somewhat/very dissatisfied with the job public high schools are doing preparing graduates) College instructors Employers 66% 42% Thinking analytically 29% very dissatisfied Work and study habits 22% very dissatisfied 16% very dissatisfied 65% 50% Applying what is learned in school to solving problems Computer skills 17% very dissatisfied 39% 55% 20% 17% Source: Hart Research Associates, Achieve, “Rising to the Challenge,” Jan. 2005 An obsolete system? “American high schools are obsolete. By obsolete, I mean that our high schools, even when they are working exactly as designed, cannot teach our kids what they need to know today. Training the workforce of tomorrow with high schools of today is like trying to teach kids about today’s computers on a 50-year-old mainframe. It’s the wrong tool for the times.” -- Bill Gates, Founder and Chairman, Microsoft Corp. Miscalculations in the 20th century high school model  Belief in fixed intelligence and low expectations, racial and ethnic prejudices  Belief in a static economy and slowchanging workforce demands Designing a 21st century model: College Readiness AND Work Readiness The Changing U.S. Workforce Skilled 20% Unskilled Unskilled 15% Professional 20% Skilled Professional 20% 60% 65% 1950 1997 National Summit on 21st Century Skills for 21st Century Jobs Fastest Growing Jobs Require Some Education Beyond High School First-professional degree Doctoral degree Master's degree Bachelor's or higher + work exp Bachelor's degree Associate degree Work experience Long-term OJT Moderate-term OJT Short-term OJT Total 0 10 8 11 14 15 11 18 24 23 19 23 32 20 30 40 50 60 Percent of Employment Growth In today’s workforce, jobs require more education than ever before 60% Change in the distribution of education in jobs 1973 v. 2001 -9% 23% +16% 40% 31% 12% High School Graduates Employment Share, 1973 Some College / Assoc. Degree 40% +16% 20% 32% 9% 28% 16% 32% 0% High School Dropouts Bachelor's Degree & Higher Employment Share, 2001 Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna M. Desrochers, Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K–16 Reform, ETS, 2003. CREATED BY ACHIEVE, INC. American Diploma Project “Successful preparation for both postsecondary education and employment requires learning the same rigorous English and mathematics content and skills. No longer do students planning to go to work after high school need a different and less rigorous curriculum than those planning to go to college.” American Diploma Project Network 22 States as of September 2005 Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas ADP Network Priorities 1. Raise high school standards to the level of what is actually required to succeed in college or in the workforce. 2. Require all students to take rigorous college and workready curriculum. 3. Develop tests of college and work readiness that all students will take in high school. 4. Hold high schools accountable for graduating all students ready for college and work, and hold colleges accountable for the success of the students they admit. Career Pathways and the Reauthorization of the Perkins Vocational and Technical Education Act • Encourage linkages between high schools and postsecondary institutions. • Includes a challenging academic core. • Offers non-duplicative career and technical courses leading to degree or certificate. • Focuses on career pathways that are in-demand and lead to economic self-sufficiency. • Each local grant recipient operates at least one career pathway program. • State helps develop and approves career pathways. Strengthening a New Vision for the American High School Through the Experiences and Resources of Career and Technical Education Available at: www.acteonline.org 9 Key Recommendations 1. Establish a Clear System Goal of Career and College Readiness for All Students 2. Create a Positive School Culture that Stresses Personalization in Planning and Decision-Making 3. Create a Positive School Culture that Stresses Personalization in Relationships 4. Dramatically Improve How and Where Academic Content is Taught 5. Create Incentives for Students to Pursue the Core Curriculum in an Interest-based Context (see the 8 elements of an interest-based program) 9 Key Recommendations 6. Support High Quality Teaching in all Content Areas 7. Offer Flexible Learning Opportunities to Encourage Re-Entry and Completion 8. Create System Incentives and Supports for Connection of CTE and High School Redesign Efforts 9. Move Beyond “Seat-Time” and Narrowly Defined Knowledge and Skills 8 Key Elements of Interest-Based Programs 1. Rigorous career and college readiness academic program for all students; 2. Research-based literacy and mathematics interventions for struggling students. 3. Structured and integrated Career exploration /development and college planning services (electronic tools where possible); 4. Interest-based programming beginning in ninth grade (concurrent with remediation for struggling students); 5. Advanced placement and dual enrollment opportunities. 6. Challenging project-based learning and “capstone projects” that integrate learning from multiple disciplines and leadership development; 7. Internships. mentoring and work-based learning; and 8. Use of industry-recognized standards and certifications and externally validated curriculum frameworks. Why we need Career Clusters and Pathways • In a new global context, America’s preparation system must be highly effective and efficient, reaching ALL students with high quality. • As the pace of change quickens, education must emphasize flexible career preparation, not narrow job training. • Embedded college preparatory options will appeal to a broad array of students, including those who consider themselves “collegebound”. • They provide opportunity for students to master academic content by applying it to real-world contexts, a skill that is valuable in the high-skilled workplace. • They create stronger personal motivation for students to complete high school and work toward academic achievement. “I got you the iPod that I promised you, and for your convenience, I’ve welded it to the lawn mower.” Points to Ponder… • In a new global context, America’s preparation system must be highly effective and efficient, reaching ALL students with high quality education and training. • With our relative size and formidable competitors/partners, the U.S. cannot afford to leave any child or youth behind. • As a society, we will only survive and thrive in the 21st century with “high schools” designed for the 21st century. • High School Redesign is a journey, not a destination. Globalization 3.0: Why Career Clusters Matter More Than Ever! By Hans Meeder meederh@visions-unltd.com