Breaking down Michael Phelps' quest for eight
By Rowdy Gaines, NBC Olympics Posted Thursday, July 3, 2008 0:21 PM ET Michael Phelps has a Herculean quest this summer ... again. He will try to surpass the incomparable Mark Spitz's seven gold medal performance in Munich and, maybe even more impressive, his seven world records. It's time to break it down and figure out whether this freak wonderkind disguised as a human can not only win 7 but maybe 8 ... maybe 9?! Phelps swam eight (five individual and three relays) events in 2004 and came oh-so-close to pulling it off. He won six gold and two bronze medals. One of those bronze medals was on a relay. He swam six individual events at the 2004 Olympic Trials but decided to drop the 200m back before Athens. I think he will cut his program down to five individual events at the Trials in Omaha in early July. And even if he did swim six he would probably end up dropping the 200m back. Listen, if the Olympic swim program were spread out over 10-12 days instead of nine, I think he would be in the running to win at least 10 gold medals. He missed breaking the world records in both the 100m and 200m back last summer by hundredths of a second and those would be the ninth and 10th events. But alas, 17 swims in nine days is crazy enough. I swam four races in 1984 in eight days and thought I was going to die afterward. Here's the breakdown in Beijing as I see it and his chances in each one: August 10 400 IM: This shapes up to be a two-person race between Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte. Laszlo Cseh of Hungary and Luca Marin of Italy are a tick behind Lochte but 3 1/2 seconds behind Phelps. Lochte is the second-best swimmer in the world and will push Michael, but not here. Phelps wins going away. 4x100m free relay: A year ago I would have said the U.S. would win easily. But France and Australia will make it much closer coming off their fabulous Olympic trials in the sprints. I still think the Americans will win it and avenge their bronze medal performance from Athens. August 11 No final. He only has a semi in the 200m free. ONLY ... easy for me to say. He'll need the break because it's hell after this.
Getty Images The men's 4x200m free relay, in which the U.S. is heavily favored, could be Michael Phelps' fifth gold medal. August 12 200 free: He's a second faster then Pieter van den Hoogenband of the Netherlands and the Dutch phenom has stated he will not swim this race. Phelps' 200 fly semifinal is after the 200 free final, so he will be fresh as he romps to another gold. August 13 200 fly: He's more than 2 seconds faster then anyone else in the world ... gold number four. 4x200m free relay: The U.S. will not shock the world as they did in 2004. Four of the top 10 200 guys are from America. They win. August 14 No Final. The real test will be tomorrow... August 15 200m IM: This could be his toughest race. Lochte (and only Lochte) has the potential to beat him. I just don't think he will because Lochte will most likely be going for gold in the 200m back (where he is the world-record holder) just minutes before this race. It's a make-or-break day because Phelps also has his toughest semifinal at the end in the 100 fly, but figure Phelps to win his sixth gold. August 16 100 fly: He's had Ian Crocker's number for the most part the last couple of years, but if Ian is ready to go he will win this race and could beat Phelps by a second - that's how good he is. But if Michael has six golds up to this point that momentum and confidence might be too much to overcome. I give Phelps a slight edge. He ties Spitz here with the magical seventh gold.
August 17 4x100m medley relay: The U.S. has never lost this relay at the Olympics ... and it won't in Beijing. That gives Michael Phelps eight gold medals. Do I think he could stumble? Absolutely. In three of his events he has to rely on other guys to help do their part and he could easily lose individual two races and it wouldn't be a surprise to anyone. But he has lived his whole life for this moment. After the Athens Games having gone 6-0-2 (6 gold, 0 silver and 2 bronze) people started calling him Phoenix (for that city's area code). If he wins eight in Beijing we'll have to start calling him toll free, and that's what his competitors might need to call to get help, because they're going to need it.